Mid-late week snowstorm?

By: Zachary Labe , 2:34 PM GMT on November 29, 2011

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"Afternoon Thoughts" (Updated 11/29)
December is my favorite month of the year. Not only is it the start of the meteorological winter allowing my inner-weather nerdness to flourish, but it is also the beginning of the holiday shopping season. This beginning is certainly polarized as many people enjoy the season, while others cringe at the thought of the approaching stress. December is particularily a very busy and at times stressful month. Worries for holiday plans can cause family conflicts, financial worries, and a plethora of other problems. But the idea of the season shouldn't stem to a dislike. It is a season to enjoy the warmth inside one's home, and to celebrate surrounded by friends and family. It is the season where sparkling lights dot the dark horizon and soothing music echoes in our footstep. It should be a time for relaxation. But one look at the latest headlines the day after Black Friday shows it is anything but this soothing state. From shootings to pepper spray attacks, it is unfortunate to see this chaos for an xbox, etc. We all need to step back for a moment and reevaluate our priorities. Instead of trying to rush December, take a moment to enjoy the heightened spirit.

For now lets hope some wintry weather will come plunging across the east coast to enhance the spirit in the air.

Frusturation is beginning to grow for winter snow lovers as the pattern change continues to be delayed in the long range. The unfavorable Atlantic is continuing to allow the contiguous United States to be flowed with Pacific maritime air. The southeast ridge is also beginning to flex its muscle given a very typical moderate La Nina state. While it does appear December will not be anywhere close to those forecasts for bitter cold air and snow, the whole winter does not appear to be a lose. There are still signs winter will return with full avengeance. The pattern change date remains in question and continues to be pushed farther back. It is likely the winter will not round with averages with a sharply negative NAO like the previous few winters, but we are still in the general decadal negative NAO state. This winter will likely be a return to reality for most I-95 locations whom have been treated quite generously the past few winter seasons. I still believe snowfall will round the season with above normal totals for most locations, but the kickoff to this snowier regime may just be kicked back a tad.

"Current Surface Plot"

(Courtesy of HPC)

"Regional Radar"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"Regional Advisories"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Forecast Discussion"(Updated 11/29)
A cutoff low pressure aloft will continue to lift northeast across Ohio and the Great Lakes region while a strong cold front advances eastward. Increasing isentropic lift ahead of the front will allow for a large plume of stratiform rain to form in the very moist southerly flow. PWATs remain near +3SD allowing for periods of heavy rain. H85s will rise to near +10C ahead of the front for regions particularily near the coast allowing for well above normal temperatures; possibly into the lower 70s for the Delmarva and 60s elsewhere. QPF totals will generally range from 0.5-0.75in due to the quick movement of the band of rain. Colder air will wrap in behind the low pressure with H85s dropping below zero Tuesday night across Pennsylvania and western Maryland with surface temperatures falling below 50F. The rain will begin to taper off. The cold air may advance in quick enough for a few wet snowflakes across the mountains of northern Pennsylvania above 2000ft. No accumulation is expected through Wednesday night. The band of rain will lift through New England Tuesday night with similar QPF amounts. Temperatures will begin to fall behind the band across all locations as the front approaches.

A north-northwest flow will allow a few diurnal instability snow showers to occur late Wednesday, but high shear will limit an organized lake effect snow event. There is a slight potential for a few 1-3in amounts in isolated snow belt locations Wednesday night. Also behind the cutoff low, a moist northwest flow will allow for some upslope snow showers across western Pennsylvania and western Maryland. 1-4in of snow is possible from Garret County, MD up through the Laurel Highlands. A return to near normal temperatures is likely through Wednesday through Sunday with Saturday being the coldest day. High pressure will likely dominate the weather Thursday through Friday shutting off any lake effect snow activity. A weak shortwave will approach western New York Friday nght with light snow showers. The ECMWF prognostics are a bit more amplified showing the possibility for a coating to one inch of snow, but the GFS remains drier. In any case little to no accumulation is likely. Once again high pressure moves in towards the weekend.

Towards next week, a strong cold front will approach the region around Tuesday.

"Regional Satellite"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Current Water Vapor Loop"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Lake Effect Snow Conditions" (Updated 11/29)
A strong cold front and associated cutoff low will continue to lift northeast across the Great Lakes. H85s will drop below 0C during the day Wednesday, but surface temperatures will generally remain above 36F. A north-northwest 310 degree flow will allow for a few instability snow showers off Lake Erie and Ontario for the Wednesday night into Thursday morning period, but unidirectional shear aloft will shred apart any organized streamer that tries to form. Lake effect activity will remain very disorganized. Temperature differentials will generally remain a marginal 8-10C limiting instability. Increasing upper level highs ahead of a high pressure will eliminate any activity by midday Thursday. A weak shortwave will approach the region towards late Friday night through Saturday, but QPF remains very light and generally less than .1in for all locations amounts limited to northern New England and western New York. Light snow showers are possible, but dry air should inhibit any snow accumulation. A 1032mb high pressure will move and center itself across central Pennsylvania with clear skies for the entire Northeast for the weekend. Little to no lake effect snow is expected over the next seven days.

"Current Great Lakes Water Temperatures"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

-Link to official river ice reports page from NWS... Link.
-Link to local ski resort snow conditions... Link.

"Current Northeast Snow Depth and Northeast Wind chills"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"Long Term Outlook" (Updated 11/29)
The global wavelength pattern has begun to shift slightly as a western ridge begins to flex itself allowing for a +PNA and -EPO. This will help to displace the Alaskan vortex slightly bringing a bit more cold air into the central and eastern United States. Current MJO forcing suggests entering waves 4-5 before beginning to wane through phases 6+. This will be a disaster for snowlovers as phases 4-5 are east coast ridging with phases 6+ favoring blocking and troughing. Given the raging +AO and +NAO, there has been little to no blocking across the northern Atlantic. Snow chances in a positive north atlantic oscillation state are reduced nearly by 50% or more especially for the Middle Atlantic. While not necessary to get a snowstorm in this region, it is very helpful. The southeast ridge will continue to be a noticeable presence during this two week period. While general wavelengths support a milder regime, several short and transient cold bursts are expected in the next two weeks. Any snow chances will be limited to the period around December 5-6 and/or December 12-14, but these chances remain very slim. Operational and ensemble models have hinted at these periods, but general support is very limited. Keep in mind the rare October snowstorm occured in a very unfavorable pattern period; all it takes is some luck in regards to timing with these short cold air masses. December 2011 could very well be similar to December 2006 in the snow and temperature department if we do not begin to see any MJO and blocking improvements. Approaching mid month, current ECMWF ensemble forecasts suggest a return to the dreaded +EPO with a mid month warm spell. The period 12/1 to 12/15 will end milder than normal for most locations, although not near as extreme as the late November period.


"Current NAO and PNA Predictions"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Anchorage, Alaska Tower Cam"

*Back due to popular demand!

"Monthly Temperature/Precipitation Outlook"(December)(Updated 11/29)
Many winter forecasts made back in the mid fall analyzed December as being the coldest month of the winter for much of the east coast. But now given the state of many global teleconnections, it appears December will continue the string of above normal temperature months. The month will open with a raging +AO nearly at 3SD and may be approaching a high in the first two week period. Corresponding with a +NAO, there will be little to no blocking associated over the Northern Atlantic. While the Atlantic remains dreadful, the Pacific is a tad more favorable early month with a return to a -EPO and +PNA favoring a west coast ridge. The MJO has been one of the driving factors in current wavelengths with phases 3-5 being traversed early in December. As the month progresses, there are signals the MJO heads back into unfavorable phases 2-4 and the EPO returns to a raging positive anomaly. This will allow for a mid month warm spell favoring the east coast and upper Great Plains. Around 12/20 or later, there are a few undefined signals indicating a sudden stratospheric warming event which may help to dislodge the positive NAO. Corresponding with a quieter sun towards the beginning of January, a return to slight blocking across the North Atlantic will be possible in this period.

Temperature- Temperatures will range well above normal on average for the month ranging from (+1.5F)-(+2.5)F for most climatological reporting stations. Temperatures will be seasonable to slightly above normal for the first week or two of December. While slight transient cold waves are possible, they will last only 1-3 days at most. By mid month a possible transition to a milder pattern is possible with well above normal temperatures. Approaching late in the month towards Christmas, there is a chance of a return to a colder regime as we get closer to January. This may allow for seasonalable to slightly below normal temperatures. There remains a great deal of cold air on our side of the pole through December, so whenever or if this pattern changes, there will certainly be quite an arctic blast.

Precipitation- A relatively active subtropical jet stream considering we are in a moderate La Nina regime will continue to allow for the development of storm systems across the southern states. Given the lack of blocking, many of these storms will cut to the west of the Northeast putting most locations in the warm sector. While there will be a few periods for colder air across the east coast, timing will need to be perfect to get a snowstorm. In general this pattern is terrible for Middle Atlantic to receive any snowfall. I do believe though there will be 1-2 synoptic events which may allow for near normal snowfall for many locations. If these do not occur, it will be a mild and snowless month. Given the lack of sustained cold air, even the lake effect machine will remain quiet for the most part. Precipitation in general will average near climatological norms.

"Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from Climate Prediction Center for next 30 days"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Local Harrisburg Radar"

(Courtesy of WGAL)

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97. PhillySnow
9:45 PM GMT on December 04, 2011
Quoting wxgeek723:


Whaaat! How come Mt Holly puts snow in your forecast but 10 miles east across the Delaware River I have all rain? :(
I wouldn't put too much stock in it, but it does give me something to watch - and you too! Can always change.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1233
96. wxgeek723
8:06 PM GMT on December 04, 2011
Quoting PhillySnow:
Congratulations on your little bit of snow, Listener!

We've at least got the "s" word in our forecast - possibility of rain and snow showers Wednesday night, and snow showers on Thursday. It'd be great if it gets cold enough for some of the heavy precip to be frozen, but that seems very unlikely with the low at 34 degrees and highs in the forties.

I'll be happy, though, with even a dusting as background for the Christmas lights!


Whaaat! How come Mt Holly puts snow in your forecast but 10 miles east across the Delaware River I have all rain? :(
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3556
95. Zachary Labe
7:17 PM GMT on December 04, 2011
Quoting bwi:
Thanks Blizz. Looks like a rainmaker for us in DC/Baltimore I suppose. Hopefully it'll be all gone by the weekend. GFS 10m temp has the 0c line right over us on Saturday it looks like. We're planning a 30-mile bike ride to DC from the suburbs. Gonna be cold I think!

ECMWF shows some light snow for your area. This definitely bares watching and it is likely something to watch...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
94. bwi
7:05 PM GMT on December 04, 2011
Thanks Blizz. Looks like a rainmaker for us in DC/Baltimore I suppose. Hopefully it'll be all gone by the weekend. GFS 10m temp has the 0c line right over us on Saturday it looks like. We're planning a 30-mile bike ride to DC from the suburbs. Gonna be cold I think!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1382
93. Zachary Labe
6:58 PM GMT on December 04, 2011
weathergeek5- We have just reached the record December AO positive anomaly, which I believe was around ~5.4. I have been doing some slight research and have noticed a trend from a high positive anomaly back to negative about 3-4 weeks from its maximum. I think it is likely the AO heads negative, but not until January. The GFS ensembles are likely rushing it a tad bit.

Drakoen- Yep, the teleconnections certainly do not support a system. It will take some luck to get a GFS-type solution, but given the position of the PV I can see how it is possible. The ECMWF did come in a bit more north and amplified in the 12z run compared to the 0z run. We shall see. At least it is something to track.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
92. Drakoen
6:42 PM GMT on December 04, 2011
Interesting solutions from the GFS given that the teleconnections don't really favor such a storm. Neutral PNA, and positive NAO and AO (even though they will be dropping). ECMWF 12z is OTS with the low pressure so we will see if we get enough blocking to drive the system up the eastern seaboard.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30213
91. weathergeek5
6:35 PM GMT on December 04, 2011
Hey blizz did you see this?




One thing in 1979 it was at near record values and that was coming off record low values for the previous winters.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
90. Zachary Labe
5:51 PM GMT on December 04, 2011
12z GEFS relatively strong support for a storm system...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
89. Zachary Labe
4:16 PM GMT on December 04, 2011
Now the 12z GFS...

I swear if Harrisburg gets another snow storm and up here in Ithaca we still haven't seen anything.... lol
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
88. Zachary Labe
3:42 PM GMT on December 04, 2011
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
87. PhillySnow
1:14 PM GMT on December 04, 2011
Congratulations on your little bit of snow, Listener!

We've at least got the "s" word in our forecast - possibility of rain and snow showers Wednesday night, and snow showers on Thursday. It'd be great if it gets cold enough for some of the heavy precip to be frozen, but that seems very unlikely with the low at 34 degrees and highs in the forties.

I'll be happy, though, with even a dusting as background for the Christmas lights!
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1233
86. listenerVT
5:11 AM GMT on December 04, 2011
Quoting TheF1Man:


Better than nothing for now!


:-) True. It did help the mood around here. Got the Christmas shopping done for the granddaughters today. A puppet theatre tent (for each household) and a nice lot of finger puppets. We're already plotting the plays we'll put on with them! LOL!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5500
85. MariettaMoon
10:45 PM GMT on December 03, 2011
Wednesday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 38.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
84. Zachary Labe
9:03 PM GMT on December 03, 2011
Quoting weatherman321:
current 12z GFS brings a monster low up the mid atlantic/ northeast on wed./thurs.

I definitely think that solution is incorrect and over phased given the PV dropping south over the Hudson bay.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
83. weatherman321
8:02 PM GMT on December 03, 2011
current 12z GFS brings a monster low up the mid atlantic/ northeast on wed./thurs.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 140
82. TheF1Man
5:06 PM GMT on December 03, 2011
Quoting listenerVT:
It kind of snowed all day, but didn't stick for a long time. In all we ended with about half a dusting. But at least it's still on the ground.


Better than nothing for now!
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
81. Zachary Labe
3:25 PM GMT on December 03, 2011
Quoting kaaterskillfalls:
Hey RaspberryPatch - which Weather History were you talking about ? I'd like to check that out but I'm not sure where it's located..

Blizz - I'm originally from the western Finger Lakes - south of Rochester... Town of Dansville, which is at the south end of a failed (drained) Finger Lake. Despite the snows that Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse typically get (and the associated hype for the rest of "upstate") much of the Southern Finger Lakes area doesn't do all that great as far as snow. (edit: I really should be more specific and say that my comment applies to the Southwestern Finger Lakes - I'm not qualified to speak to what occurs in the further east Finger Lakes)

Not really sure about Ithaca but in Dansville we nearly always missed out on the big lake effect snows and were often too far inland to get much from coastal storms. The lake effect wind directions are critical and we needed winds nearly straight out of the north to get any lake effect - we were always just a hair too far south of Lake Ontario and too far east from Lake Erie. In addition the valley and ridge terrain makes it so that much of the snow in the area is robbed by the higher ridges and it just doesn't show up in the valleys so much.

Here in Ithaca we still average nearly 70in of snow, but I just do not know why yet. The lake effect trajectories are not favorable for here in Ithaca and we are relatively too far away from the coast. So far I am not impressed here after all of the hype. Thanks for stopping by!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
80. TheRasberryPatch
12:38 PM GMT on December 03, 2011
kaaterskillfalls - it was weather history WU had posted for Thursday. Something like NY had an average temperature of 22F and had only one day above freezing for December back in 1831. I think that is what they wrote.

the past 2 mornings have been in the 20's with heavy frost. The days are nice with just sweathshirts to wear.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
79. listenerVT
4:53 AM GMT on December 03, 2011
It kind of snowed all day, but didn't stick for a long time. In all we ended with about half a dusting. But at least it's still on the ground.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5500
78. bwi
8:20 PM GMT on December 02, 2011
12z GFS looks colder for next weekend (Dec 10-11)?
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1382
77. listenerVT
5:46 PM GMT on December 02, 2011
Snowflakes!

Started about 5 minutes ago.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5500
76. kaaterskillfalls
4:33 PM GMT on December 02, 2011
Hey RaspberryPatch - which Weather History were you talking about ? I'd like to check that out but I'm not sure where it's located..

Blizz - I'm originally from the western Finger Lakes - south of Rochester... Town of Dansville, which is at the south end of a failed (drained) Finger Lake. Despite the snows that Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse typically get (and the associated hype for the rest of "upstate") much of the Southern Finger Lakes area doesn't do all that great as far as snow. (edit: I really should be more specific and say that my comment applies to the Southwestern Finger Lakes - I'm not qualified to speak to what occurs in the further east Finger Lakes)

Not really sure about Ithaca but in Dansville we nearly always missed out on the big lake effect snows and were often too far inland to get much from coastal storms. The lake effect wind directions are critical and we needed winds nearly straight out of the north to get any lake effect - we were always just a hair too far south of Lake Ontario and too far east from Lake Erie. In addition the valley and ridge terrain makes it so that much of the snow in the area is robbed by the higher ridges and it just doesn't show up in the valleys so much.
Member Since: August 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 101
75. Zachary Labe
12:41 PM GMT on December 02, 2011
GFS still hinting at the anafront scenario next week changing to accumulating snow for some areas.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
74. listenerVT
8:49 AM GMT on December 02, 2011
Hey! I may get some snow?!

"Partly sunny with a slight chance of snow showers this morning...then cloudy with snow showers likely with possible snow squalls likely this afternoon. Total snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches. Highs in the upper 30s. Light and variable winds...becoming southwest around 10 mph this afternoon. Chance of snow 60 percent."

Wow! Looks like my bit of snow is going to arrive in squall form at the time of day I need to pick up my little granddaughter at preschool. It's a Grammie first for me to do that, so I'm glad I have my snow tires on.

(And anyone who followed my recent story knows that I have my snows on because I forgot to have them taken off last Spring. LOL!)


Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5500
73. listenerVT
1:53 AM GMT on December 02, 2011
Marietta Moon... So basically what you're showing us is that it's been too warm with too little snow.

But now it's 26 degrees here...where's my snow?

Y'know...I can never decide which I love more...stars or snowflakes? I suspect they're related. ;-)
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5500
72. MariettaMoon
1:42 AM GMT on December 02, 2011
NORTHEAST NOVEMBER 2011 CLIMATE REVIEW

KEY: (Temp) (Precip) (Snowfall) (Snowfall since July)

Frenchville ME: (+5.3F) (-0.90”) (NA)
Caribou ME: (+6.4F) (-1.84”) (-8.8”) (-9.2”)
Houlton ME: (+5.5F) (-2.28”) (NA)
Millinocket ME: (+5.5F) (-2.76”) (NA)
Massena NY: (+6.5F) (-1.52”) (NA)
Bangor ME: (+4.5F) (-2.01”) (+6.3”) (+13.2”)
Plattsburgh NY: (+4.8F) / (-0.83”) / (NA)
Morrisville VT: (+5.3F) (-2.17”) (NA)
Burlington VT: (+5.1F) (-1.70”) (-0.1”) (-0.3”)
St. Johnsbury VT: (+3.2F) (-1.57”) (NA)
Saranac Lake NY: (+5.4F) (-1.29”) (NA)
Montpelier VT: (+5.2F) (-1.46”) (NA)
Watertown NY: (+6.0”) (-1.06”) (NA)
Gray ME: (+5.0F) (-2.37”) (+5.2”) (+18.0”)
Portland ME: (+5.3F) (-2.07”) (-0.9”) (+4.3”)
Rutland VT: (+6.8F) (-2.07”) (NA)
Glens Falls NY: (+4.9F) (-1.11”) (NA)
Springfield VT: (+5.1F) (-1.37”) (NA)
Concord NH: (+4.1F) (-0.04”) (-0.1”) / (+22.8”)
Rochester NY: (+5.3F) (-0.48”) (-7.0”) (-7.1”)
Syracuse NY: (+6.2F) (-0.17”) (-8.9”) (-9.3”)
Buffalo NY: (+5.8F) (-0.91”) (-7.9”) (-8.8”)
Bennington VT: (+4.9F) (-1.21”) (NA)
Albany NY: (+4.7F) (-1.43”) (-2.8”) (+2.6”)
Pittsfield MA: (+4.5F) (-1.61”) (NA)
Boston MA: (+5.7”) (+0.22”) (-1.3”) (-0.3”)
Worcester MA: (+6.5F) (-0.01”) (-2.6”) (+13.2”)
Binghamton NY: (+6.1F) (-0.22”) (-5.6”) (-4.0”)
Erie PA: (+4.5F) (+0.43”) (-7.0”) (-7.2”)
Hartford CT: (+4.0F) (-0.08”) (-2.0”) (+10.3”)
Providence RI: (+3.8F) (+0.28”) (-1.5”) (+0.8”)
Poughkeepsie NY: (+4.4F) (-0.53”) (NA)
Scranton PA: (+4.5F) (-0.27”) (-2.9”) (+6.1”)
Williamsport PA: (+4.1F) (-0.34”) (-1.7”) (-0.8”)
Bridgeport CT: (+4.3F) (-0.19”) (-0.7”) (+3.3”)
Mount Pocono PA: (+5.5F) (-0.15”) (NA)
Islip NY: (+4.7F) (-0.89”) (-0.6”) (-0.3”)
New York (CP) NY: (+4.2F) (-0.97”) (-0.3”) (+2.6”)
N. Queens (LAG) NY: (+3.8F) (-0.56”) (-0.3”) (+1.4”)
Newark NJ: (+4.1F) (-0.12”) (-0.4”) (+4.8”)
Allentown PA: (+4.0F) (+1.40”) (-0.7”) (+6.1”)
S. Queens (JFK) NY: (+3.3F) (-0.06”) (-0.2”) (+1.3”)
Pittsburgh PA: (+4.0F) (+0.52”) (-2.0”) (-0.8”)
Reading PA: (+4.1F) (+1.24”) (NA)
Trenton NJ: (+4.7F) (+0.66”) (-0.4”) (+2.8”)
Harrisburg PA: (+3.4F) (+1.27”) (-0.6”) (+4.9”)
Philadelphia PA: (+3.7F) (+0.88”) (-0.3”) (0.0”)
Hagerstown MD: (+3.4F) (+0.37”) (NA)
Wilmington DE: (+3.0F) (+1.03”) (-0.4”) (-0.1”)
Morgantown WV: (+4.2F) (+0.88”) (NA)
Atlantic City PA: (+4.6F) (+1.25”) (-0.2”) (-0.2”)
Martinsburg WV: (+4.2F) (+0.36”) (NA)
Parkersburg WV: (+3.0F) (+1.37”) (NA)
Baltimore Harbor MD: (+4.5F) (+0.12”) (NA)
Glen Burnie (BWI) MD: (+4.0F) (-0.85”) (-0.4”) (-0.4”)
Dulles VA: (+2.7F) (-1.23”) (-0.5”) (+0.1”)
Elkins WV: (+3.9F) (+0.51”) (-4.7”) (-4.0”)
Washington DC: (+2.8F) (-1.23”) (-0.5”) (-0.5”)
Georgetown DE: (+3.7F) (-0.46”) (NA)
Huntington WV: (+3.4F) (+2.76”) (-0.7”) (-0.8”)
Charleston WV: (+3.9F) (+1.15”) (-1.3”) (-1.4”)
Salisbury MD: (+4.7F) (-1.12”) (-0.2”) (-0.2”)
Charlottesville VA: (+3.2F) (-0.69”) (NA)
Wallops Island VA: (+3.0F) (-0.89”) (-0.1”) (-0.1”)
Beckley WV: (+4.4F) (+0.83”) (-2.4”) (-2.6”)
Richmond VA: (+3.1F) (+0.94”) (-0.2”) (-0.2”)
Roanoke VA: (+2.4F) (+0.90”) (-0.5”) (-0.5”)
Lynchburg VA: (+2.4F) (-0.14”) (-0.3”) (-0.3”)
Bluefield WV: (+3.4F) (+0.74”) (-0.4”) (-0.6”)
Blacksburg VA: (+2.7F) (+0.83”) (-0.5”) (-0.5”)
Norfolk VA: (+3.5F) (-1.31”) (0.0”) (0.0”)
Danville VA: (+1.3F) (+1.62”) (0.0”) (0.0”)
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
71. MariettaMoon
10:02 PM GMT on December 01, 2011
From NWS Caribou ME
AT CARIBOU...THE NOVEMBER 2011 MEAN OF 37.9 DEGREES, WHICH WAS 6.4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, ENDED UP BEING THE WARMEST NOVEMBER OF RECORD SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1939...BREAKING THE FORMAL RECORD WARMEST NOVEMBER OF 36.8 DEGREES SET ONLY TWO YEARS AGO IN 2009

11/30 RECORD HIGH MAXIMUMS
Caribou ME: 61F (t)
Bngor ME: 63F (t)
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
70. TheRasberryPatch
9:59 PM GMT on December 01, 2011
Did anyone read the Weather History? wow, I couldn't imagine that scenario. I wonder if similar scenario engulfed the northern hemisphere for years. Similar time period to when Dicken's wrote 'A Christmas Carol'. I know I read that London used to get snow in Winter.

A very nice day today with very little wind and sunny conditions. A high of 49.2F
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
69. shipweather
8:13 PM GMT on December 01, 2011
This wind storm out west is crazzzzy. And this weather here in Central PA is just boring.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
68. weatherman321
7:06 PM GMT on December 01, 2011
i hope next week wave is not as warm as some models are predicting. seeing more rain will probably ruined that entire week for me...
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 140
65. MariettaMoon
5:57 PM GMT on December 01, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:
I was studying for one of my meteorology finals and reading a list of past TA's who helped assist in a lab manual... There I read Matt Noyes! I had no idea he graduated from Cornell Atmospheric Sciences, although I feel like someone here on the blog mentioned it before.


I like Matt Noyes. Great live blog he does for New England. Wish we had a guy like that down here.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
64. Zachary Labe
5:23 PM GMT on December 01, 2011
I was studying for one of my meteorology finals and reading a list of past TA's who helped assist in a lab manual... There I read Matt Noyes! I had no idea he graduated from Cornell Atmospheric Sciences, although I feel like someone here on the blog mentioned it before.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
63. Zachary Labe
5:09 PM GMT on December 01, 2011
GFS almost completely eliminates cold wave for next week with above normal temperatures. What a horrific run, luckily GFS accuracy verification charts have been horrible. I believe I read the recent GFS accuracy charts showed the worst performance in 5 years. What a joke... so much for the model upgrade.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
62. originalLT
3:35 PM GMT on December 01, 2011
Pretty windy by me here in Stamford CT., just had a gust to 32mph., out of the NW.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7500
61. MariettaMoon
3:28 PM GMT on December 01, 2011
Quoting testbenchdude:
Um, next Wednesday is continuing to look more and more interesting as the new GFS runs come in. I know it's still wishcasting at this point, but either way (rain or snow for I-95 corridor) it still bears watching.


The 6Z GFS has a near perfect track for just northwest of I-95 from northern VA and northeast, but there is absolutely no phasing and the system remains warm and only falls to 1000mb off New England. If that solution were to verify, it would mean some snow in the mountains and mainly rain elswhere. The 6Z GFS has no other model support at this time. All others want to bring that low up through the midwest or western PA in typical LaNina fashion. The GFS had the same midwest solution yesterday, but has been trending southeast ever since, so it does bear a little watching.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
60. Zachary Labe
1:28 PM GMT on December 01, 2011
MariettaMoon- 2007 was a horrible December in south central Pennsylvania. The higher snow amounts in those overrunning situations were always near the NY/PA border. I am thinking this will be a moderate La Nina given some recent SST cooling and the current status of the MJO forcing.

BostonDan- Hey! Thanks for dropping by! Yes, I am a bit fed up with the pattern. Figures I go to upstate New York and cannot get any snow even out here to see, lol.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
59. wunderstorm87
11:38 AM GMT on December 01, 2011
Quoting listenerVT:


Holy Moly! Please keep us posted, or perhaps post a link to follow the situation. Hoping the dam holds.

This is the last article I've seen and the news and there are no warnings, so I'm assuming it's holding up at this point.

Link
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
58. listenerVT
6:42 AM GMT on December 01, 2011
Quoting wunderstorm87:
An odd flash flood watch was issued for Lancaster county today despite no rain in the forecast...and here's why:

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA DIRECTLY DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE SPEEDWELL DAM IN LANCASTER COUNTY. THE SPILLWAY WAS
DAMAGED DURING HEAVY RAINS EARLIER THIS FALL WHICH HAVE CAUSED
WATER BEHIND THE DAM TO BUILD UP TO DANGEROUS LEVELS. LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGERS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.


Holy Moly! Please keep us posted, or perhaps post a link to follow the situation. Hoping the dam holds.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5500
57. testbenchdude
6:42 AM GMT on December 01, 2011
Um, next Wednesday is continuing to look more and more interesting as the new GFS runs come in. I know it's still wishcasting at this point, but either way (rain or snow for I-95 corridor) it still bears watching.
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 217
56. BostonDan
4:47 AM GMT on December 01, 2011
Hey Blizz, hope you are doing well. Been a while since I've been around these interweb parts... nice to see you are still at it and better then ever. Hoping for a pettern change soon. I'm not going to pretend that I haven't enjoyed this stretch of near-record warmth, but I am starting to get desperate for some snow.
Member Since: February 10, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 431
55. MariettaMoon
3:56 AM GMT on December 01, 2011
Blizz, do you think this will be a weak or moderate LaNina winter season?

Below is LaNina snowfall effects at Philadelphia International Airport. Data includes the 2010 – 2011 moderate LaNina

1981 – 2010 average annual snowfall: 22.4”

Strong LaNina: 15.9” (-6.5”)
Moderate LaNina: 17.6” (-4.8”)
Weak LaNina: 23.1” (+0.7”)

Chance of significant snowfall events at Philadelphia International Airport

Strong LaNina:
>=10”: 0%
>=6”: 50%

Moderate LaNina
>=10”: 25%
>=6”: 50%

Weak LaNina
>=10”: 14%
>6”: 57%
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
54. MariettaMoon
2:12 AM GMT on December 01, 2011
11/29 RECORD HIGH MAXIMUMS
Montpelier VT: 59F (t)
Glens Falls NY: 64F (t)
Binghamton NY: 63F (t)
Hartford CT: 66F*
Providence RI: 65F*
Williamsport PA: 66F*
Bridgeport CT: 65F (t)
Islip NY: 66F (t)

11/29 RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS
Portland ME: 48F*
Boston MA: 52F*
Poughkeepsie NY: 50F*
Morgantown WV: 49F*

11/28 RECORD HIGH MAXIMUMS
Bangor ME: 58F (t)
Islip NY: 68F*
New York (CP) NY: 70F*
Newark NJ: 72F (t)
Trenton NJ: 73F*
Atlantic City NJ: 69F (t)

11/28 RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS
Glens Falls NY: 44F*
Albany NY: 48F (t)
Boston MA: 53F*
Binghamton NY: 52F*
Hartford CT: 51F*
Providence RI: 50F (t)
Wilkes-Barre PA: 53F*
Williamsport PA: 53F*
Bridgeport CT: 54F (t)
New York (CP) NY: 56F*
N. Queens (LAG) NY: 54F (t)
Newark NJ: 53F (t)
S. Queens (JFK) NY: 52F*
Harrisburg PA: 54F (t)
Atlantic City NJ: 57F*
Elkins WV: 58F*
Salisbury MD: 59F*
Beckley WV: 56F*
Lynchburg VA: 54F (t)
Bluefield WV: 57F*
Norfolk VA: 62F*
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
53. MariettaMoon
1:23 AM GMT on December 01, 2011
Blizz, here are the snowfall totals & departures for the December 2007 analog you were mentioning. Most areas did pretty well with snowholes in parts of PA, central NJ, and southern VA. New York away from New York City and New England got hammered. If Dec 11 turns out like Dec 07, the theme will be “changes in latitude, changes in attitude.”

All station departures relative to 1971 – 2000, except 1981 – 2010 for the following…

Burlington VT, Gray ME, Islip NY, Salisbury MD, Wallops Island VA, Richmond VA, Lynchburg VA, Roanoke VA, Bluefield WV, Blacksburg VA, Norfolk VA, Danville VA

From north to south...
Caribou ME: 54.5” (+29.3”)
Bangor ME: 42.3” (+28.2”)
Burlington VT: 45.3” (+27.4”)
Gray ME: 38.2” (+19.9”)
Portland ME: 38.8” (+25.2”)
Concord NH: 45.3” (+31.9”)
Rochester NY: 41.8” (+19.9”)
Syracuse NY: 49.8” (+23.7”)
Buffalo NY: 31.3” (+5.8”)
Albany NY: 31.2” (+18.4”)
Boston MA: 26.9” (+20.3”)
Worcester MA: 26.7” (+15.0”)
Binghamton NY: 26.4” (+9.3”)
Erie PA: 19.3” (-6.0”)
Hartford CT: 18.8” (+10.4”)
Providence RI: 14.4” (+8.8”)
Scranton PA: 16.4” (+9.1”)
Williamsport PA: 8.6” (+2.1”)
Bridgeport CT: 6.1” (+2.5”)
Islip NY: 2.6” (-2.8”)
New York (CP) NY: 2.9” (+0.3”)
N. Queens (LAG) NY: 2.7” (-0.5”)
Newark NJ: 3.9” (+1.0”)
S. Queens (JFK) NY: 2.4” (+0.3”)
Allentown PA: 6.9” (+3.1”)
Pittsburgh PA: 8.2” (+1.3”)
Trenton NJ: 1.8” (-1.2”)
Harrisburg PA: 2.8” (-2.0”)
Philadelphia PA: 1.6” (-0.4”)
Wilmington DE: 4.1” (+2.2”)
Atlantic City NJ: 4.4” (+2.9”)
Baltimore MD: 4.8” (+3.1”)
Dulles VA: 2.5” (+0.3”)
Elkins WV: 14.3” (0.0”)
Washington (REG) DC: 2.6” (+1.1”)
Huntington WV: 1.4” (-1.8”)
Charleston WV: 3.6” (-1.9”)
Salisbury MD: T” (-1.2”)
Wallops Island VA: T” (-1.9”)
Beckley WV: 3.1” (7.1”)
Richmond VA: T” (-2.1”)
Lynchburg VA: 0.1” (-2.9”)
Roanoke VA: 0.9” (-2.6”)
Bluefield WV: 4.0” (-2.9”
Blacksburg VA: 0.8” (-4.1”)
Norfolk VA: 0.0” (-1.2”)
Danville VA: T” (-0.7”)
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
52. weatherbro
11:02 PM GMT on November 30, 2011
I have a feeling this Christmas will be similar to 1989 or at least 1996, where the eastern cold comes just in time for the Winter Solstice!
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1286
51. Zachary Labe
9:24 PM GMT on November 30, 2011
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:


That sounds like a usual track for this time of the year. When do you foresee the LE kicking in for this winter?

my Davis has registered 4.43" for the month of November. I would say that is probably close to normal for November.

November only averages around 3in for rain in November. It was another well above normal month to continue out string. Next week should have some widespread lake effect possibly, but with all this warmth, it won't last too long.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
50. NEwxguy
8:40 PM GMT on November 30, 2011
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
NEwxguy - no moths around the LSV to speak about. I think most of our flying bugs have gone away, except for the stink bugs that you find at least one per day in your house


They are local pest infestation,they were introduced from Europe into Nova Scotia and have spread into Maine and down the coast and the Eastern parts have been overrun with these moths which only come out around Thanksgiving and depending on how cold it gets they can stay around until Christmas.They come out at night and there are so many they are all over the sides of homes cars ,everywhere and get into homes.They lay eggs before winter sets in and in the spring catapillars hatch and are really damaging the trees up here.And they are spreading,down to areas in conn. RI and some areas of LI so you guys will see them in a few years.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 877 Comments: 15709
49. wunderstorm87
8:10 PM GMT on November 30, 2011
An odd flash flood watch was issued for Lancaster county today despite no rain in the forecast...and here's why:

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA DIRECTLY DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE SPEEDWELL DAM IN LANCASTER COUNTY. THE SPILLWAY WAS
DAMAGED DURING HEAVY RAINS EARLIER THIS FALL WHICH HAVE CAUSED
WATER BEHIND THE DAM TO BUILD UP TO DANGEROUS LEVELS. LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGERS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
48. TheRasberryPatch
7:45 PM GMT on November 30, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:

The precipitation today across New York and Pennsylvania is associated with a weak shortwave and not really lake effect. Been misting up here today, but that is it. If I were a betting man, I would say the storm system early next week is snow for areas across the far north in New England and perhaps maybe towards the Ohio Valley. Still bears watching here in the east I suppose.


That sounds like a usual track for this time of the year. When do you foresee the LE kicking in for this winter?

my Davis has registered 4.43" for the month of November. I would say that is probably close to normal for November.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
47. Zachary Labe
7:32 PM GMT on November 30, 2011
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:


The WU forecast is too warm for anything, here. Are you getting any lake effect today? Surprisingly, there hasn't been any lake effect off of Lower Lake Michigan and one time off of Lake Erie?

The precipitation today across New York and Pennsylvania is associated with a weak shortwave and not really lake effect. Been misting up here today, but that is it. If I were a betting man, I would say the storm system early next week is snow for areas across the far north in New England and perhaps maybe towards the Ohio Valley. Still bears watching here in the east I suppose.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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Elevation: 520 ft
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