Pattern change?

By: Zachary Labe , 8:47 PM GMT on November 20, 2011

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Thanksgiving is just about here and the holiday shopping season has already kicked off in full swing! While no resemblance to winter outdoors, signs of the holiday month are dotting street corners and shopping malls. The first semester at Cornell is just about over with the last week of classes immediately following Thanksgiving. It has been a very busy period the last two weeks with mounting homework assignments and projects. In fact many of us spent our Saturday night at one of the libraries until they decided to close early that evening. And then my Sunday transforms quickly into a mob of people outside the library just as they are opening the doors. This is Cornell's black Friday. It will be refreshing to spend time back at home over the short Thanksgiving break away from the stresses of school. After the October record snowstorm, I know many people are antsy for the next snow. But it is only November and snowfalls are usually limited to the higher elevations. Here is a quick look at any pattern change in the foreseeable future...


Fig. 1- Temperatures anomalies for the last seven days as of November 12.

Noting current temperature anomaly maps, it is obvious that placement of a ridge over the east and trough over the east has been dominating the jet stream across the contiguous United States. This has been associated with unfavorable teleconnections including a +NAO which is associated with lower heights over Greenland and a weaker pressure gradient. This allows for a transient jet without any favorable blocking. A -PNA has also allowed for a very steep trough over the western United States.


Fig. 2- The GFS (GEFS) ensembles continue to indicate a high standard deviation positive EPO.

The +EPO has allowed for the unfavorable placement of an Alaskan polar vortex associated with near historic cold across parts of central Alaska.

NOAK49 PAFG 200954
PNSAFG
AKZ222-202200-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1254 AM AKST SUN NOV 20 2011

...THE RECORD COLD CONTINUES AT FAIRBANKS...

THE COLD SNAP CONTINUES TO RE-WRITE THE RECORD BOOKS AT
FAIRBANKS. THE CURRENT COLD SNAP IS ONE OF THE MOST SEVERE ON
RECORD FOR SO EARLY IN THE WINTER SEASON. HAD THE COLD SNAP
OCCURRED IN DECEMBER...JANUARY...OR EVEN TOWARD THE VERY END OF
NOVEMBER IT WOULD NOT BE AT ALL UNUSUAL. WHAT MAKES THIS COLD
SNAP MORE UNIQUE IS THAT IT OCCURRED THE WEEK BEFORE THANKSGIVING.

SATURDAY WAS YET ANOTHER RECORD SETTING DAY AT FAIRBANKS. THE
HIGH OF 23 BELOW AT THE AIRPORT WAS ANOTHER RECORD LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE. THE OLD RECORD OF 22 BELOW WAS ESTABLISHED WAY BACK
IN 1911. THE LOW OF 36 BELOW BROKE THE RECORD OF 33 BELOW FROM
1969.

SATURDAY MARKED THE 5TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH A LOW TEMPERATURE OF
30 BELOW OR COLDER AT THE AIRPORT. THIS TIES WITH 1956...1969 AND
1989 FOR THE MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 30 BELOW
OR COLDER SO EARLY IN THE WINTER SEASON.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE HAS NOW BEEN 35 BELOW OR COLDER EACH OF THE
LAST 5 DAYS. THIS HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE SO EARLY IN THE
WINTER SEASON AT FAIRBANKS. THE OLD RECORD WAS ONLY 2 DAYS...AND
WAS LAST RECORDED IN 1989.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE HAS NOW BEEN 20 BELOW OR COLDER EACH OF THE
LAST 4 DAYS. THIS BREAKS THE RECORD OF 3 DAYS IN 1989 FOR THE
MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 20 BELOW OR
COLDER SO EARLY IN THE WINTER SEASON.

Given the unfavorable teleconnections, the MJO also has maintained a strong influence given the unfavorable phases 1-5 it has been circulating through the past few weeks.

Fig. 3- MJO phase 3 anomalies for November favoring warmth over much of contiguous United States.

So given the start of the meteorological winter will be beginning in a short two weeks, many snow lovers are certainly looking for some colder weather. Given many winter forecasts favoring a colder than normal December, many people are left wondering when the cold air will penetrate south of the Arctic.

The pattern currently is about as bad as it can get for snow lovers. The incredible and near record strength polar vortex south of Alaska is the kiss of death for Northeast snow. We need to see dramatic changes in the current wavelengths across North America and even into Asia. Looking at long term guidance, it appears that a pattern change may loom far in the future with finally some indication of a relaxation of the +EPO regime.


Fig. 4- The MJO GEFS prognostic indicates weaker forcing as we cycle through phases 4 and 5.

The current MJO prediction is to enter phases 3-5 over the next two week period. As noted in the graphic above, those phases tend to allow for a milder regime over much of the CONUS. But given the weaker forcing, we may be able to counteract the MJO with other teleconnections becoming more favorable.


Fig. 5- GEFS mean prognostic for 384 hours.

Current GEFS prognostics indicate a general shift in the current jet stream position in the general end of the two week period. While it is long range, we can note the shift of the PV to the north along with a +PNA regime. Also some blocking can be noted south of Greenland. While slightly displaced, any blocking helps at this point.

The map above looks encouraging, but issues remain in regards to blocking and the MJO forcing. In fact looking at the wavelengths, it would appear the troughing over the east is transient in nature. The step down pattern I have continued to mention will definitely reign as far as the next two weeks. I do not expect to see any sustainable cold and therefore pattern change until at least December 20. I think while the warmest anomalies will certainly be the several day period after Thanksgiving, there will continue to be an up and down temperature pattern through mid to late December. Slowly but surely colder air will penetrate farther south with each cold front. In fact I would expect temperatures to only average a degree or two above normal for December. I cannot rule out though higher anomalies.

This setup does not mean we cannot get any snowfall. In fact I think this active setup will lend itself to several snow chances through December 20. Towards Christmas and beyond, a very wintry pattern may be setting up. Long term analysis of the stratosphere indicates a dramatic stratospheric warming event may be progged towards January. This will allow the AO to drop negative with a surge of arctic air towards the CONUS.

Generally after December 5 or so, snow chances should be on the increase despite lacking a sustained cold weather pattern. The period immediately following Thanksgiving will allow for near record warmth in some areas!

I will post a new weekly weather blog on Tuesday with forecasts for the Thanksgiving storm which will generally be rain for most all areas.

"Local Harrisburg Radar"

(Courtesy of WGAL)

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91. Zachary Labe
2:26 PM GMT on November 29, 2011
5.6F above normal for the month here in Ithaca... Link
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15082
90. MariettaMoon
2:17 PM GMT on November 29, 2011
Mount Pocono morning low in the low-50's this morning. Record high minimum for the date is low-40's.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
88. Zachary Labe
1:19 PM GMT on November 29, 2011
59F here currently in Ithaca. Insane at 8am to be the warm at the end of November in upstate New York.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15082
87. originalLT
5:37 AM GMT on November 29, 2011
Reached 68F by me on Mon.,4th stright day with highs in the 60's. LT Stamford CT.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7403
86. wxgeek723
5:00 AM GMT on November 29, 2011
Mt Holly released their "Fab Four" as they call it, lol. Analogs for this winter:

1945-1946
1998-1999
1999-2000
2008-2009

Can't say I know much about the winter of 1945-46 but none of the other three particularly excite me. However I'm not too dissapointed, Philly saw a fair amount of snow during 1999-2000 and 2008-2009.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3448
85. weatherman321
4:08 AM GMT on November 29, 2011
I hate seeing Tennessee and Mississippi under winter storm warnings.... while here in Pa i'm dealing with 50's and rain..This is sad.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 140
84. listenerVT
3:36 AM GMT on November 29, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:
New blog tomorrow!


Whoo hoo!
I'll be sure to stop by!

:-D
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5480
83. MariettaMoon
11:56 PM GMT on November 28, 2011
11/27 RECORD HIGH MAXIMUMS
Harrisburg PA: 63F (t)
Wilmington DE: 66F (t)
Baltimore MD: 71F*
Dulles VA: 70F*
Washington DC: 72F*
Salisbury MD: 72F (t)
Lynchburg VA: 71F (t)

11/27 RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS
Watertown NY: 51F*
Rochester NY: 51F*
Buffalo NY: 54F*
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
82. MariettaMoon
11:46 PM GMT on November 28, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:
Oh how I love seeing Alabama getting snow before the Northeast, ugh!


Blizz, I really got you beat on snow so far this year. Was up the Poconos for the 12" in October. Was in New Hampshire this weekend for 6"-8" snowpack.

LT: No prob
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
81. wunderstorm87
11:26 PM GMT on November 28, 2011
I didn't even have to wear a light jacket this morning because it was 57F! Plenty of record high minimums must have been set.

We actually had to worry about bees yesterday while putting up our Christmas lights in shorts & a t-shirt.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
80. anduril
11:04 PM GMT on November 28, 2011
Quoting TheF1Man:


Lol it's not just winter weather, this pattern is just boring. Temps in the 40s and 50s don't appeal to me. It should either be cold enough for snow or warm enough to enjoy it!
When its warm enough for freaking mosquitoes in late November I'm a sad panda :(
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 168
79. Zachary Labe
9:30 PM GMT on November 28, 2011
New blog tomorrow!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15082
78. TheF1Man
9:24 PM GMT on November 28, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:
We sure could use some winter weather, the blog is dead, lol.


Lol it's not just winter weather, this pattern is just boring. Temps in the 40s and 50s don't appeal to me. It should either be cold enough for snow or warm enough to enjoy it!
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
77. TheRasberryPatch
8:43 PM GMT on November 28, 2011
I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving weekend. The weather couldn't have been much better.

Anything being forecast for Dec 5th, Blizz? What a great day today. Probably not for hunters though. I would think they want cold air.

Any thoughts for the upcoming week?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6245
76. Zachary Labe
4:29 PM GMT on November 28, 2011
We sure could use some winter weather, the blog is dead, lol.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15082
75. listenerVT
3:37 PM GMT on November 28, 2011
At 2:30am here in NW VT it was still 56 degrees...!
It's still about 54 now and raining steadily like a good Spring rain.

Now for a rousing chorus of Penny Lane...

...in the pouring rain.
Very strange.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5480
74. Zachary Labe
12:50 PM GMT on November 28, 2011
Oh how I love seeing Alabama getting snow before the Northeast, ugh!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15082
73. originalLT
2:11 AM GMT on November 28, 2011
Thanks for the stats MM, surprised to see a record low minimum in Danville Va. with all this mild air in place, and that in all these years of record keeping, it wouldn't have been colder at some point on this date in Danville. Thanks again for the facts.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7403
72. MariettaMoon
12:18 AM GMT on November 28, 2011
11/26 RECORD HIGH MAXIMUMS
Pittsfield MA: 60F (t)
N. Queens (LAG) NY: 65F (t)
S. Queens (JFK) NY: 64F (t)
Newark NJ: 68F (t)
Atlantic City NJ: 71F*

11/23 RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
Blacksburg VA: 51F (t)

11/22 RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
Charleston WV: 55F*

11/19 RECORD LOW MINIMUM
Danville VA: 23F (t)

11/15 RECORD HIGH MINIMUM(in addition to a previous post)
Morgantown WV: 55F*
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
71. MariettaMoon
8:19 PM GMT on November 27, 2011
I love northern New England. We had such a nice time. The scenery really was like some of the best wintry paintings that you see. I felt like Clark in Funny Farm. "Redbud"
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
70. Zachary Labe
3:36 PM GMT on November 27, 2011
Clipper this Friday/Saturday will likely drop light snow for areas north of the New York/Pennsylvania border with amounts C-1in for most areas.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15082
69. originalLT
2:54 AM GMT on November 27, 2011
Yeah, I think there's two chances of that happening, slim and none!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7403
68. HeavySnow
2:42 AM GMT on November 27, 2011
Quoting tropicfreak:


This is embarrassing for us Virginians, seriously the deep south getting their first flakes before we do?? So messed up.


Well some of us Virginians got their first flakes in October. Enough for snowballs even!
Quoting Blizzard92:

Yah! Fantasy 384hr storm GFS season!


Woo Hoo! Day 16? hahahahahahaha
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
67. Zachary Labe
11:22 PM GMT on November 26, 2011

Yah! Fantasy 384hr storm GFS season!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15082
66. PhillySnow
9:17 PM GMT on November 26, 2011
A late Happy Thanksgiving, everyone, and Happy Birthday, Blizz! Been busy, all with happy holiday events.

We're headed up to the Poconos, where we expect mid-50's and some rain. Possibility of snow showers Wednesday morning, which would be sweet. Otherwise, waiting for mid-December and doing my best to not be discouraged by the forecasts of a mild winter!
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1227
65. tropicfreak
7:49 PM GMT on November 26, 2011
Quoting Walshy:
NWS Memphis, Tennessee

SOMETHING INTERESTING AND PARTICULARLY CONCERNING OF NOTE...THE 00Z NAM DEPICTION OF THE LOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOWS A VERY NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEM OVER ALABAMA PUSHING NORTHWEST OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SUB 537 DAM 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AND SUB 1290M 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT SNOW WITHIN THIS BAND. DEEP OMEGA AND A PERSISTENT...NEARLY STATIONARY BAND WOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH. OBVIOUSLY HARD TO BITE ON THIS PARTICULAR SOLUTION...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE FOLLOWED IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS SINCE IT IS ONLY ABOUT 48 HOURS AWAY AND THERE IS A REAL POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.


This is embarrassing for us Virginians, seriously the deep south getting their first flakes before we do?? So messed up.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
64. Walshy
5:41 AM GMT on November 26, 2011
NWS Memphis, Tennessee

SOMETHING INTERESTING AND PARTICULARLY CONCERNING OF NOTE...THE 00Z NAM DEPICTION OF THE LOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOWS A VERY NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEM OVER ALABAMA PUSHING NORTHWEST OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SUB 537 DAM 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AND SUB 1290M 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT SNOW WITHIN THIS BAND. DEEP OMEGA AND A PERSISTENT...NEARLY STATIONARY BAND WOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH. OBVIOUSLY HARD TO BITE ON THIS PARTICULAR SOLUTION...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE FOLLOWED IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS SINCE IT IS ONLY ABOUT 48 HOURS AWAY AND THERE IS A REAL POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 904
63. weatherman321
2:32 AM GMT on November 26, 2011
NWS now has us here in Greensburg, PA with snow likely (60% chance) tuesday night. Lets see if it sticks or if things change!!
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 140
62. wxgeek723
7:56 PM GMT on November 25, 2011
Blah putting up Christmas decorations in 60F weather! -__-
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3448
61. HeavySnow
5:47 PM GMT on November 25, 2011
At work today in shorts and a Hawaiian shirt in DC. Yuck but nice.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
60. MariettaMoon
2:36 PM GMT on November 25, 2011
It's gorgeous up here in New Hampshire with A 6"-8" snowpack still caked on all the trees. I love how they use sand instead of that nasty black salt. The snowbanks on the sides of roads are white & clean.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
59. bwi
2:11 PM GMT on November 25, 2011
This morning's HPC discussion. Looks like they're leaning toward a heavy rain event for the DC-Bmore area early next week.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
840 AM EST FRI NOV 25 2011

VALID 12Z TUE NOV 29 2011 - 12Z FRI DEC 02 2011

THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE A TROUGH
BROADENING ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DOWNWIND OF AN EASTERN PACIFIC
RIDGE. THE GUIDANCE SHARES THESE IDEAS. DETAIL-WISE...THERE ARE
MAJOR ISSUES OUT EAST WITH HOW FAR SOUTH A CLOSED CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DURING THE SHORT
RANGE PERIOD AND HOW DEEP IT WILL GET. THE NCEP GUIDANCE WAS
ALONE WITH THEIR MORE NORTHERLY AND QUITE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS
WHILE THE INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE WAS SETTLING UPON A MORE
SOUTHERN/SLOWER SOLUTION. THE INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE SEEMS MORE
BELIEVABLE WITH THEIR MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS CONSIDERING THE
AMPLIFICATION EXPECTED UPSTREAM DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. OF
THESE THE 00Z CANADIAN FIT TELECONNECTIONS BEST AS THE APEX OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE IN NORTHERN QUEBEC IMPLIES A CLOSED LOW IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF TN. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN DOES LOOK TOO DEEP
WITH 500 MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES 5-6 SIGMAS BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY...WHICH IS IMPROBABLE GIVEN HIGH SOLUTION UNCERTAINTY.
THIS IS ANOTHER REASON WHY A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN/00Z CANADIAN WAS NEEDED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH SLOWED ITS
PROGRESSION AT LEAST 12 HOURS WHEN COMPARED TO CONTINUITY AND
LEADS TO MORE PROLONGED PCPN/UNSETTLED WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE 00Z
ECMWF AND UKMET SOLUTIONS WOULD HAVE FORCED EVEN ADDITIONAL
SLOWING...BUT LOOMING UPSTREAM KICKER ENERGY APPROACH WORKS
AGAINST BEING QUITE THAT SLOW. DEPENDING ON ITS UNCERTAIN DEPTH
AND TRACK...COMMA HEAD SNOWS COULD SPREAD FROM THE MID-SOUTH
NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY/ERN GREAT LAKES AND UP THE
APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF WARMER
SECTOR ERN SEABOARD HEAVY RAINS.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
58. listenerVT
4:31 AM GMT on November 25, 2011
As requested, here's the latest...

* * * ♥ ALLY UPDATE! ♥ * * *

Wednesday, November 23, 2011 8:37 PM, EST

So much to tell.....

1. Ally can read!!! She has been sounding out 3 letter words for the past couple of weeks! It is so much fun, and she is so proud of herself.
2. Ally has a loose tooth! We are very excited for the tooth fairy. We have found out that Ally's tooth fairy brings trinkets, not money....who knew? We are wondering what would happen if her tooth fell out on Christmas Eve? Would Santa and the Tooth Fairy work together? I guess we will just have to wait and see.
3. Ally is HAMA positive (grrrrr), BUT she is only slightly HAMA positive. We are going to draw again next Thursday and see if she is still positive. She is really close to being negative, so they hope she will drop quickly. We hope so too.
4. Ally is due for scans again in January. Our DHMC doctors are working on having Ally do the CT and the MIBG awake. Ally did the CT awake last time, no problem. The CT only takes 5 minutes or so. The MIBG is 45 minutes of Ally laying very, very still. One of us will be able to be in the room with her for both scans. Hopefully this will all go well.
5. Sadly we had to leave Ally's medical supply company this week. Since Ally has been diagnosed we have been using a company called New England Life Care for all of her at home medical supplies (for her port and her feeding tube, and lots of various things over the past few years). My school switched insurance companies, and NELC can no longer service us. It seems silly to be upset about a switch in company, but this company has been fantastic. Because of them we have been able to leave the hospital a day early on more than one occasion. They are local (right here in Concord) and they have been able to get us supplies the day they are ordered. When Ally had to have her low dose chemo after the tumor came back, this was the company that came to our house everyday for 2 weeks on, 1 week off, for 11 or 12 cycles. They have been great and we will miss the local company.

Happy Thanksgiving. This year we are thankful for Ally....she is pretty awesome.

Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5480
57. listenerVT
3:34 AM GMT on November 25, 2011
H A P P Y ♥ T H A N K S G I V I N G !!!

We didn't get the day of sunshine we were promised by the locals. It was cold, cloudy and spit rain and snow. We still only got a dusting of snow here (Jericho, VT), while one of our guests got 6" of snow! (East Fairfield, VT)

But it turns out that a meal cooked by 8+ different family chefs can work and taste great! Amazing!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5480
56. listenerVT
3:29 AM GMT on November 25, 2011
.
. . .♥ .♥. ♥ .♥ . ♥ . ♥. ♥ . ♥. ♥ . ♥. . . .
. . .||...||..||...||....||....||..||....||...||...||. . . .
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
=♥=♥=♥=♥=♥=♥=♥=♥=♥=♥=♥=♥=
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~♥ H A P P Y ♥~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~♥ B I R T H D A Y ♥~~~~~
~~~~~~~~♥ B L I Z Z !! ♥~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
=♥=♥=♥=♥=♥=♥=♥=♥=♥=♥=♥=♥=
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
(____________________________)
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55. Zachary Labe
9:58 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
Thanks everyone!

Hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving!!!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15082
54. PengSnow
4:33 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
Happy Thanksgiving To All
I too am not a frequent poster due to travel, but I enjoy the insights from all.

Played in our neighborhood annual turkey bowl 1 hand touch in our cul de sac this morning, I am getting old, we had just around 30 people competing from age 10 thru 58 male and female, the star was the 58 yr old even though I was lucky enough to get a game ending interception when it was thrown right to me.

To All be safe and enjoy your holidays!!!
Member Since: January 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 417
53. seflagamma
4:09 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
Hello Bliz,

Happy Happy Birthday to you!!!

and Happy Thanksgiving!!!

Saw it was your BD over on FB..

have a great day!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 297 Comments: 40881
52. originalLT
3:41 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
Also, just watched Levi32's video blog about this up-coming winter, in general he is stating that with this La Nina, the likely hood is that it will be a milder winter here in the East. Check it out, rather than me re-hashing it here for you.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7403
51. originalLT
3:17 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
Happy Thanksgiving to Blizz and everyone, and I see Happy birthday wishes to Blizz too! Also Blizz, that young man Jeremy, who attended Cornell, is currently going to Grad scholl out in Calif., but, in all our talking, I didn't get the name of the institution that he is currently attending.. He is working full time at the areo-space co. that is paying for his schooling.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7403
50. MarylandGirl
12:11 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
HAPPY BIRTHDAY BLIZZ!!!!!

On this Thanksgiving day I am thankful for many tings, one is this blog. Although I do not post often I do appreciate the knowledge of all who do.

Happy Thanksgiving to all....now on to snow for the midatlantic!!!
Member Since: September 10, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 486
49. HeavySnow
1:21 AM GMT on November 24, 2011
That's a change for the positive!
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
48. MariettaMoon
8:22 PM GMT on November 23, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:

If we can get the pattern to swing around mid December, then that is perfect. Snow chances only really start to increase around then anywhere and any snow before then is pretty much luck.


Mid December (hopefully)... I'd still be fine with that.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
47. MariettaMoon
8:16 PM GMT on November 23, 2011
Quoting listenerVT:
Marietta Moon ~
Traveling mercies! I'm glad we'll have sunshine in New England for your visit! If you stay the weekend you'll even enjoy temps in the 50's (above zero)!

Happy Thanksgiving


Driving to Mahwah NJ this evening, then doing the rest of the ride Thursday morning. Heading back home Saturday.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
46. Zachary Labe
8:14 PM GMT on November 23, 2011
Quoting MariettaMoon:


Sounds perfect. I'm perfectly fine with a warm November with changes in December.

Had some minor small stream & urban flooding here early this morning.

If we can get the pattern to swing around mid December, then that is perfect. Snow chances only really start to increase around then anywhere and any snow before then is pretty much luck.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15082
45. MariettaMoon
8:05 PM GMT on November 23, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:

Still looks like the first cold blast will hit early December with a waffling in the pattern from there through mid December before a possible sustained cold pattern will reign. Overall improvements are coming especially after mid week next week.


Sounds perfect. I'm perfectly fine with a warm November with changes in December.

Had some minor small stream & urban flooding here early this morning.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
44. MariettaMoon
8:01 PM GMT on November 23, 2011
Quoting NJTom:
Sorry kiddies, looks like you'll have to wait a bit longer for your first snow day. Enjoy the warmth, like a responsible adult should.


Please... It comes from a connection and fascination with nature. Most people in the modernized world lose that connection somewhere along the way. Luckily, we still understand and appreciate it.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
43. NJTom
7:50 PM GMT on November 23, 2011
Sorry kiddies, looks like you'll have to wait a bit longer for your first snow day. Enjoy the warmth, like a responsible adult should.
Member Since: December 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 140
42. Zachary Labe
5:19 PM GMT on November 23, 2011
Quoting HeavySnow:
Happy Thanksgiving Blizz! I'm thankful for your updates! Any more encouraging signs of a pattern change?

Still looks like the first cold blast will hit early December with a waffling in the pattern from there through mid December before a possible sustained cold pattern will reign. Overall improvements are coming especially after mid week next week.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15082

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Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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