Unprecedented, Destructive October Snowstorm!

By: Zachary Labe , 6:27 PM GMT on October 28, 2011

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"Current Temperature"


"Current Dewpoint"


"Current Surface Map and Weekly History of Jet Stream Position"


"Regional Radar"


"Regional Satellite"


"Regional Advisories"


"12hr Estimated Precipitation"


"Forecast Max Temperatures"


"Forecast Min Temperature"


"Forecast Weather at 2pm"


"Current Storm Reports"


"Forecast Model Links"
-NAM model 12z...Link
-GFS model 12z...Link
-NMM model 12z...Link
-SREF model 9z...Link

This is a pretty quick intro on computer model forecasts along with beneficial links. Computer models use the complex calculus algorithms to print out the forecasts. Despite our complaning with the models, without them much of us would be lost except in the short time. Some of the earlier computer models consisted of the ETA, NGM, and AVN, which forecasted generally less than 84hrs. They were highly inaccurate, but provided a basis. The ETA was actually the computer model that helped meteorologists predicted the "storm of the century" in March of 1993 so well in advance. But now more than ever we have a myriad of computer models available to the general public with many mesoscale models only available to NOAA. Lets start with the general. All current computer models are based off on the Zulu time. Zulu time is also known as UTC or Greenwich time . Generally to forecast timing of storms my special BUFKIT data transitions UTC time to EST time, which is helpful. But BUFKIT is a special download, which I won't get into, but the transition is helpful as for some reason I never am able to understand time zones too well, hahaha. Anyways let me start with each computer model...

-GFS (Mentioned most of all as it is a global model (Global Forecasting System))
~Available in 0z (initiates at 10:30pm), 6z (initiates at 4:30am), 12z (10:30am), 18z (4:30pm)
~Forecasts out to 384hrs
~Typical biases
Cold bias on long range on 18z run
6z and 18z slightly unreliable
Northwest trend on lows within 84hrs of event

-ECMWF (This is another global model run by an international organization (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts))
~Available in 0z (initiates at 1:30am), 12z (initiates at 1:30pm)
~Forecasts out to 240hrs
~Typical biases
Overphases lows in 168hr range
Holds too much energy in southwest
Known as extremely accurate within 140hrs

-NAM (Mesoscale short range model)
~Available in 0z (Initiates at 9:30pm), 6z (Initiates at 3:30am), 12z (initiates at 9:30am), 18z (Initiates at 3:30pm)
~Forecasts out to 84hrs
~Typical biases
Highly inaccurate towards the 84hrs
Handles coastal storms very well and southwest overrunning events
Tendency for way too much QPF

Those three above are the most common models for a beginner in computer models, but there are many more. All of the global models consistent of ensemble models also, such as the GFS has a myriad of ensemble (small models) that create a mean solution known as GEFS. They typically are too cold and southeast with low pressures, but some reason the NWS seems to enjoy using them. There are also more global models than the GFS and ECMWF... The UKMET is run by an internation organization and forecasts out to 144hrs. This model typically comes out an hr before the ECMWF and usually is pretty similar to the ECMWF. The ECMWF may also be known as the EURO by the way. There is also a Canadian model known as the GGEM/CMC, which again contains ensemble models. All of the internation models only run 0z and 12z runs. This is probably for the best as all models only receive new upper air data in 0z and 12z runs, so this is why the American model runs of the 6z and 18z are usually worthless. There is also a high resolution Canadian model known as the RGEM, which is very similar to the American NAM. High resolution (mesoscale models) are important as they usually are able to pick up on fine details such as frontogenesis, advection, adebiatic cooling, convection, etc. Some of this high resolution models include the WRF, HIRES NMM, RUC, ARW. They all are usually very accurate, but the WRF and HIRES NMM usually have wet bias.

As mentioned above there are ensemble models which come up with a mean solution instead of using one computer model's algorithms like the global models use. These ensemble mean solution are known as the MREF and SREF with MREF being in the medium range and SREF in the short range. SREF is usually pretty accurate and forecasts within 87hrs of an event. There are also other computer models used for hurricane forecasting, but I will not get into them. For instance one is the GFDL, which you may have heard of. I find I use mainly the GFS, NAM, and WRF/NMM in the summer, but use all of the models in the winter.

A few models to avoid...
JMA
KMA
CAMPASS
DGEX

Here is a list of links for explanations on how to interperate the models...

-PennState E Wall, which runs all of the models
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html

-PennState E Wall tutorial on computer models (Check it out)
http://www.personal.psu.edu/adb241/eWallTutorial/ Main.htm

-Severe Weather parameters used on models, explanation
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/n=severe_weather_chec klist_paper

-Forecasting winter weather
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/soo/docu/precip_type. php

-NCEP; used to find American Computer models
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

-Severe Weather Models
http://www.wxcaster.com//conus_0012_us_models.htm

-Winter Weather Models
http://www.wxcaster.com/conus_snowfall.htm

-Model Soundings
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?te xt=KMDT#

The last link is listed above as model soundings which takes all of the data to print out all sorts of information including precipitation type along with dynamics such as Omega. This is very complex and takes some time getting used to. Also you may see this data instead of in charts, it is sometimes used in SKEWT T charts.

I hope all of this information helped out... Keep in mind precipitation amounts is QPF, with 500mb aloft being the jet stream, 700mb aloft measuring relative humidity, 850mb aloft measuring 5,000ft aloft temperatures, 925-1000mb measuring surface temperatures. Generally I would look at the GFS and NAM first to get a hang of it along with reading the tutorial links. Use the 850mb and 2m charts for the GFS especially as they are pretty self explanatory and color coded. You will find some maps for international models are confusing and black and white.

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

Follow my 24hr forecasts on Twitter... Link and Facebook... Link.

Please post storm reports in this blog from across the Northeast during the winter storm and please post location of observation in each report...

This blog is in progress. Check back soon...

Winter Forecast 2011-2012... Link

Historic October Nor'easter...
Higher cirrus will begin to flood the northern Middle Atlantic later in the day Friday after high temperatures in the mid 40s with partly cloudy skies. Clouds will begin to thicken and lower Friday night with precipitation moving northward as a 1000hPa coastal low pressure moves up the coast. The low pressure will follow an ideal track up and along the coast and if it were winter... this would be a major snowstorm for all of the Northeast including towards the coast. But given climatological means during late October, snow will only fall in certain locations well to the northwest. Precipitation will move northward as rain into Virginia and Maryland Friday night and move up into southern Pennsylvania also as rain. Evaporational cooling will begin as 2m temperatures fall to near dewpoint values late Friday night changing over to snow for southern Pennsylvania particularily for elevations above 800ft with a rain/snow mix in the valleys.

As the low begins to intensify further, a deformation axis will likely form well to the west of the center of circulation. The placement of this axis is key to the snow accumulation region as it will bring cold air down the surface in the form of dynamic cooling. Given the low track this axis is likely to form in eastern Pennsylvania up through central New England. Saturday will feature well below normal highs withs highs not reaching 40 as far south as Washington DC. Precipitation will intensify during the day. Ground temperatures initially in the 40s and marginal boundary layer temperatures will keep the highest accumulations in the higher elevations with several inches possible above 200ft (perhaps up to 12in as far south as South Mountain, Pennsylvania). Elsewhere valley locations can also expect some light snow accumulation as far south as northern Maryland. For the I-95 corridor, a mix of rain and snow is likely with no accumulation. Snow accumulations up through New England are likely 4-7in for the valleys and 8-14in for the higher elevations. I could even envision higher amounts given the strength of the deformation axis. Total QPF printout from guidance such as the ECMWF and GEFS suggest 1.0in-2.0in across the entire Northeast.

Most of the snow will fall during the day Saturday. If timing were a bit more favorable such as Saturday night, this would have been a potentially record breaking, rare October snow event.

Given the high leaf foliage in some areas, the combination of wet snow will cause major tree damage in some locations especially in eastern Pennsylvania. Power outages are possible. Snow ratios will be near 6/7:1 with rates up to 0.5in/hr at times. Given the heavier snow rates at times, even areas with boundary layer temperatures at 34-35F may see a quick accumulation.

I want to raise a few critical points...

1) Current ground temperatures really have little to do with snow accumulation when rates fall above 0.5in/hr. Snow can accumulate even on roads. The sun angle in late October is like mid February and has little impact. Combine this with marginal temperatures, cloud cover, and heavy snow rates this will cause snow to accumulate very easily after the initial lighter snow.

2) The biggest concern is the trees which I have been hyping for the last 24hrs. Snow accumulations possibly over 10in in some areas of south-central Pennsylvania up through New England could bring devastation to trees. The heaviness of the wet snow on foliage is a disaster. And looking a records, this has never happened before in many areas!

3) I-95 is a tough forecast and is dependent on exact low track. But given the dynamics of this storm which may cause even thundersnow, the big cities should all change to snow at some point.

4) Given the time of year, water temperatures are very warm and the temperature gradient and the natural baroclinicity along the coast will cause the storm to rapidly undergo bombogenesis with very unusual mesoscale features. This will cause some areas to see rapidly high QPF totals.

Selected City Accumulations for the Northeast...
Hagerstown, MD- Rain/snow then heavy snow. Accumulations 5-12in
Baltimore, MD- Rain changing to snow. Accumulations up to 4in especially the higher hills.
Salisbury, MD- Mostly rain with a trace of snow
Pittsburgh, PA- Rain/snow then snow. Accumulations 2-4in
State College PA- Moderate snow. 5-7in
Williamsport, PA- Heavy snow. Accumulations 5-10in
Altoona, PA- Moderate snow. Accumulations 5-7in
Harrisburg, PA- Heavy snow. Snow accumulations 6-14in
Lancaster, PA- Heavy snow. Snow accumulations 6-13in
Philadelphia, PA- Rain/snow changing to snow. Accumulations 1-3in+
Allentown, PA- Heavy snow. Snow accumulations 6-14in
Scranton, PA- Heavy snow. Snow accumulations 6-12in
Washington, DC- Rain changing to rain/snow. Spotty 1-3in accumulations are possible
Wilmington, DE- Rain changing to rain/snow. Spotty 1-4in accumulations are possible
Dover, DE- Rain changing to rain/snow with trace accumulations
Trenton, NJ- Rain/snow changing to snow. Accumulations 2-4in
New York City, NY- Rain/snow changing to snow. Accumulations 1-6in depending on location.
Poughkeepsie, NY- Heavy snow. Accumulations 5-10in
Binghamton, NY- Light snow. Accumulations 3-6in
Ithaca, NY- Light snow. Accumulations 2-4in
Albany, NY-Moderate snow. Accumulations 4-8in
Hartford, CT- Rain/snow changing to heavy snow. Accumulations 4-7in
Concord, NH- Heavy snow. Accumulations 5-10in
Providence, RI- Rain changing to rain/snow. Spotty 1-3in accumulations
Worcester, MA- Heavy snow. Snow accumulations 6-13in
Boston, MA- Rain/snow with spotty accumulations 1-3in
Nantucket, MA- Heavy rain and high winds up to 60mph
Hyannis, MA- Heavy rain and gale force winds in excess of 60mph
Portland, ME- Heavy snow. Accumulations 4-9in
Bangor, ME- Heavy snow. Accumulations 6-12in
"Subject to Change"

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Quoting wxgeek723:
I feel like I'm the only one reporting rain as dominant precipiation :/
Quoting weathergeek5:


I have rain too *sigh*

So the name isn't the only thing you two share ;)
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
Quoting wxgeek723:
I feel like I'm the only one reporting rain as dominant precipiation :/


I have rain too *sigh*
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
I feel like I'm the only one reporting rain as dominant precipiation :/
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3631
Quoting CapeCoralStorm:
Just curious... this system was suppose to give us precip until atleast midnight... I thought the system was suppose to move sw to ne. but it looks to be moving straight from w to e and the southern part of the delmarva looks like its drying out already? am i missing something?


as the system hits the coast at about NJ/NYC, it'll begin to pivot and become negatively tilted...that'll stall out the precip and throw more back along the mid atlantic....heavy convective bands could set up with thundersnow and shockingly high accumulations under those bands. deformation bands in the storms wake will cause snow to linger through the night in spots. dont worry too much yet about it ending....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CapeCoralStorm:
Just curious... this system was suppose to give us precip until atleast midnight... I thought the system was suppose to move sw to ne. but it looks to be moving straight from w to e and the southern part of the delmarva looks like its drying out already? am i missing something?


I was wondering the same thing dude.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
274. toph
Rather than start as rain here in Croton-on-Hudson NY as we were supposed to, we started as flurries around 10:30 and then transitioned to heavy snow by 11:30. I'm starting to think a foot could actually be possible. It's now sticking to both the grass and the roads - not to mention the leaves on the trees. I guess I'll start waiting for the power to go out...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hoynieva:
@WxKiddo, I'm glad someone else is as shocked by this as myself. I can't believe this is occurring in the NYC in October.

If this doesn't change back to rain at some point, and I don't see why it should, we may even approach 8-10" in the city itself. We currently have 1.75" in Brooklyn and there is a lot of storm to go.


This is a biblical snowstorm for NYC....as for it changing over to rain, dont count on it. this is max heating for the day, it should accumulate faster past 3pm....here in bethpage, its a slushy rain right now...no accumulations just yet, expecting it to start accumulating after sunset.

while it will accumulate, the heavy nature of the snow will mean it'll compress as it accumulates....so u may end up with near 6" of a mushy wet snow....which will melt quickly.

any other time of year, this would be another 2 foot snowstorm in NYC. tho, 6" is quite enough for october thanks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
grass is completely covered now.....closing in on a solid 2 inches here in Roseland, NJ. Trees are looking HEAVVVVVVYYYYY. I have plans tonight, leaning towards a cancel. Just afraid of the heavy trees, leaves, already saturated ground, etc....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Could there be some overrunning of Rina's moisture here in VA?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just curious... this system was suppose to give us precip until atleast midnight... I thought the system was suppose to move sw to ne. but it looks to be moving straight from w to e and the southern part of the delmarva looks like its drying out already? am i missing something?
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 213
@WxKiddo, I'm glad someone else is as shocked by this as myself. I can't believe this is occurring in NYC in October.

If this doesn't change back to rain at some point, and I don't see why it should, we may even approach 8-10" in the city itself. We currently have 1.75" in Brooklyn and there is a lot of storm to go.

Then again, it seems difficult to even throw that number out there. I'd have never believed it if told last week.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
Quoting HeavySnow:
It seems to be changing here now. Finally.


Lucky you, all I'm expecting here in Richmond are some light rain with a few flakes... grrr.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Epic snowstorm under way across the northeast. Places will receive well over a foot of heavy wet snow. Trees will come down under the weight of 2-3" of liquid equivalent snowfall. snowfall ratios of barely 5:1 will make conditions very dangerous.

Across long island, what was a heavy wet snow for a while, has now turned to a slushy rain? Once the sun goes down, expect all areas except the far east of long island to transition to accumulating snow. I think snowfall totals are very much underdone, tho who would dare predict major accumulations in october in new york/long island.

My thinking: 1-3" for the south shore, 2-4" for the mid island, and 3-6" for the north shore, with possibly heavier accumulations in convective bands that will set up later tonight....along with strong winds and thunder possibly.

Places north and west of NYC will easily see near a foot, tho due to the heavy wet nature of the snow, it will compress quickly...regardless, with blustery winds and heavy accumulations, tree snapping and power outages are distinct possibilities.


If ppl could do me a favor, when they report conditions, please let us know where you are so we can get a good idea of the weather across the mid-atlantic/northeast.??

wow. just wow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
265. bwi
15z surface analysis for east central shows 1006mb off Virginia Beach.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfc2.shtml
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1390
Power outages have increased from just around 100 a half hour ago to almost 8000 in Dauphin county alone. Fortunately I am not one of them.

Ridiculously heavy snow right now. Echo tops reveal that the area of high cloud tops/thunderstorm is heading my way. We'll see if I get any thunder/lightning!
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
Quoting HeavySnow:
Nice thunder on Cantore.

Mix here in Annandale, VA.


Man, I turn off the weather channel for five minutes and I miss it. :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nice thunder on Cantore.

Mix here in Annandale, VA.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
Nothing coming down (rain or snow) in North Baltimore Co. Wondering if its over for us or if there is more to come???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CapeCoralStorm:
Im really starting to think we are gonna get the shaft on this...$%^**%


Agreed -_-
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3631
Winter Wonderland on Beech Mountain, NC
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Heavy wet snow falling, sticking on the street now too. Temp. down to 32.4F , wind North,5-10mph. Baro. 29.96"F. LT Stamford CT.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7715
Here in Greensburg, Pa where about done with the snow, my last measure of snow was about 2.3inches. which puts us in the 2-4inch range Blizz had for us. I also heard over in harrisburg area they are dealing with thunder-snow?!? really dynamic storm...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Im really starting to think we are gonna get the shaft on this...$%^**%
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 213
HOLY THUNDERSNOW!
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
Snow now pretty close to moderate here in Warwick, NY. Roads still just wet, trees and lawns quickly becoming snow-covered.
Member Since: January 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 92
Thundersnow in Harrisburg live on camera on TWC! Incredible.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
251. comicalwheel
4:34 PM GMT on October 29, 2011
Since around 8 Am In Aberdeen,MD 25 miles NE of Baltimore we've been going from sleet to rain and back again. Will we get a decent snowfall from the storm as people have stated it's a bust for around here and others say that it's only beginning. the rain/snow line has been a few miles west ALL morning.
Member Since: October 27, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
250. bwi
4:32 PM GMT on October 29, 2011
Nothing yet between DCA and BWI. Looks like the first wave of rain is pretty much through. Now we'll just have to see if the storm bombs and the wrap around reaches all the way back to our area later this afternoon. I'm sort of doubtful, but we'll see.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1390
249. weathergeek5
4:32 PM GMT on October 29, 2011
Quoting CapeCoralStorm:
Getting frustrated in new castle,de.... mostly rain. some huge flakes mixing in, and some ice falling... but a steady, heavy rain... ggrrrrr.. cmooooonnn snow!


me too
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
246. CapeCoralStorm
4:30 PM GMT on October 29, 2011
Getting frustrated in new castle,de.... mostly rain. some huge flakes mixing in, and some ice falling... but a steady, heavy rain... ggrrrrr.. cmooooonnn snow!
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 213
245. TheRasberryPatch
4:28 PM GMT on October 29, 2011
I have the power go off twice so far only for a couple of secs, but that isn't good.

do I see an end in sight looking at the radar? it looks like the majority of the heavy precip is riding along I95
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
244. Hoynieva
4:27 PM GMT on October 29, 2011
1.5" and the snow is between light and moderate. If this keeps up, we'll end up with far more than what they predicted...well, they also didn't think it would change until nightfall, so there's that.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
243. wxgeek723
4:23 PM GMT on October 29, 2011
Moderate sleet with some rain. Sleet is piling up in many places almost like snow. Rooves are very icy. I would bet some of the rain is freezing rain the way things look. Not many flakes though.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3631
242. capelookout
4:20 PM GMT on October 29, 2011
Quoting pittsburghnurse:
We are done here in Pitt, at least for now. I imagine that whatever falls from here on out will be a mix.

Mix could be the worst though. Definitely the most trecherous for a puppy. I mean what if the stuff freezes on the sideway before the temperature in the lower troposphere rises and changes the precipitation to rain? How old is Ollie?
Member Since: June 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 71
241. NEPASteve
4:18 PM GMT on October 29, 2011
Snowing in Carbon County. All snow by the looks of it and the roads are turning a bit white. Lights flickered once so far.

Member Since: October 29, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 61
240. pittsburghnurse
4:18 PM GMT on October 29, 2011
We are done here in Pitt, at least for now. I imagine that whatever falls from here on out will be a mix.
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
239. weathergeek5
4:18 PM GMT on October 29, 2011
Snowflakes are FINALLY mixing in.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
236. ITCZmike
4:10 PM GMT on October 29, 2011
Quoting Snargle:
Looking out my back door. The tree branches are really starting to droop under the load of the wet snow. The "tree surgeons" are going to be pretty busy after this is done. And so are the utility crews. I'm really glad all my utilities are underground.


Snarglebaby, you are a lucky man you. But not to sympathic for the folks that will lose power cuz their lines are above ground. You realize not everyone is as lucky as you and as fortunate to live in a gated community where the power is generated directly from the nuk plant to a grounded base near you subdivision.

But pretty picture!!
Member Since: July 5, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 67
235. HeavySnow
4:08 PM GMT on October 29, 2011
It seems to be changing here now. Finally.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
233. Snargle
4:07 PM GMT on October 29, 2011
Looking out my back door. The tree branches are really starting to droop under the load of the wet snow. The "tree surgeons" are going to be pretty busy after this is done. And so are the utility crews. I'm really glad all my utilities are underground.

Member Since: December 25, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 88
232. Hoynieva
4:05 PM GMT on October 29, 2011
Trees and surfaces are all covered now. We have about 1" and it's coming down heavily. I saw a pigeon trying to fly to his underpass sanctuary and it took him quite a while to traverse the seemingly chaotic air currents.

Looking out the window now, the road is beginning to turn white, and it's a high traffic area.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
231. PalmyraPunishment
4:01 PM GMT on October 29, 2011
Just took a walk, everything looks so beautiful. Christmas, not "Halloween". Trees and utility lines are becoming very stressed. I'm hoping the power holds here but I don't think it does.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
230. capelookout
4:00 PM GMT on October 29, 2011
Quoting BullShoalsAR:
Unbelievable the snow already for this part of the country. If you love snow, then this storm is for you. Of course if you live in Pittsburgh and always blog on here about owning your house that you just bought like its front page news oughta really put a damper on weekend plans. I mean, the leaves haven't even fallen off the trees in my wooded lot!! They might even be some branches coming down. I hope I don't lose power. Oh no! I have to work later and I hope the house I just bought (I had to mention that twice so everyone knows) is okay.

Oh geez I hope your puppy is going to fair well in this snow. Oh jimminy crickett. I'm worried now. Although this should melt very fast after it falls, so not too much to get alarmed about.
Member Since: June 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 71

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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