Unprecedented, Destructive October Snowstorm!

By: Zachary Labe , 6:27 PM GMT on October 28, 2011

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"Current Temperature"


"Current Dewpoint"


"Current Surface Map and Weekly History of Jet Stream Position"


"Regional Radar"


"Regional Satellite"


"Regional Advisories"


"12hr Estimated Precipitation"


"Forecast Max Temperatures"


"Forecast Min Temperature"


"Forecast Weather at 2pm"


"Current Storm Reports"


"Forecast Model Links"
-NAM model 12z...Link
-GFS model 12z...Link
-NMM model 12z...Link
-SREF model 9z...Link

This is a pretty quick intro on computer model forecasts along with beneficial links. Computer models use the complex calculus algorithms to print out the forecasts. Despite our complaning with the models, without them much of us would be lost except in the short time. Some of the earlier computer models consisted of the ETA, NGM, and AVN, which forecasted generally less than 84hrs. They were highly inaccurate, but provided a basis. The ETA was actually the computer model that helped meteorologists predicted the "storm of the century" in March of 1993 so well in advance. But now more than ever we have a myriad of computer models available to the general public with many mesoscale models only available to NOAA. Lets start with the general. All current computer models are based off on the Zulu time. Zulu time is also known as UTC or Greenwich time . Generally to forecast timing of storms my special BUFKIT data transitions UTC time to EST time, which is helpful. But BUFKIT is a special download, which I won't get into, but the transition is helpful as for some reason I never am able to understand time zones too well, hahaha. Anyways let me start with each computer model...

-GFS (Mentioned most of all as it is a global model (Global Forecasting System))
~Available in 0z (initiates at 10:30pm), 6z (initiates at 4:30am), 12z (10:30am), 18z (4:30pm)
~Forecasts out to 384hrs
~Typical biases
Cold bias on long range on 18z run
6z and 18z slightly unreliable
Northwest trend on lows within 84hrs of event

-ECMWF (This is another global model run by an international organization (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts))
~Available in 0z (initiates at 1:30am), 12z (initiates at 1:30pm)
~Forecasts out to 240hrs
~Typical biases
Overphases lows in 168hr range
Holds too much energy in southwest
Known as extremely accurate within 140hrs

-NAM (Mesoscale short range model)
~Available in 0z (Initiates at 9:30pm), 6z (Initiates at 3:30am), 12z (initiates at 9:30am), 18z (Initiates at 3:30pm)
~Forecasts out to 84hrs
~Typical biases
Highly inaccurate towards the 84hrs
Handles coastal storms very well and southwest overrunning events
Tendency for way too much QPF

Those three above are the most common models for a beginner in computer models, but there are many more. All of the global models consistent of ensemble models also, such as the GFS has a myriad of ensemble (small models) that create a mean solution known as GEFS. They typically are too cold and southeast with low pressures, but some reason the NWS seems to enjoy using them. There are also more global models than the GFS and ECMWF... The UKMET is run by an internation organization and forecasts out to 144hrs. This model typically comes out an hr before the ECMWF and usually is pretty similar to the ECMWF. The ECMWF may also be known as the EURO by the way. There is also a Canadian model known as the GGEM/CMC, which again contains ensemble models. All of the internation models only run 0z and 12z runs. This is probably for the best as all models only receive new upper air data in 0z and 12z runs, so this is why the American model runs of the 6z and 18z are usually worthless. There is also a high resolution Canadian model known as the RGEM, which is very similar to the American NAM. High resolution (mesoscale models) are important as they usually are able to pick up on fine details such as frontogenesis, advection, adebiatic cooling, convection, etc. Some of this high resolution models include the WRF, HIRES NMM, RUC, ARW. They all are usually very accurate, but the WRF and HIRES NMM usually have wet bias.

As mentioned above there are ensemble models which come up with a mean solution instead of using one computer model's algorithms like the global models use. These ensemble mean solution are known as the MREF and SREF with MREF being in the medium range and SREF in the short range. SREF is usually pretty accurate and forecasts within 87hrs of an event. There are also other computer models used for hurricane forecasting, but I will not get into them. For instance one is the GFDL, which you may have heard of. I find I use mainly the GFS, NAM, and WRF/NMM in the summer, but use all of the models in the winter.

A few models to avoid...
JMA
KMA
CAMPASS
DGEX

Here is a list of links for explanations on how to interperate the models...

-PennState E Wall, which runs all of the models
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html

-PennState E Wall tutorial on computer models (Check it out)
http://www.personal.psu.edu/adb241/eWallTutorial/ Main.htm

-Severe Weather parameters used on models, explanation
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/n=severe_weather_chec klist_paper

-Forecasting winter weather
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/soo/docu/precip_type. php

-NCEP; used to find American Computer models
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

-Severe Weather Models
http://www.wxcaster.com//conus_0012_us_models.htm

-Winter Weather Models
http://www.wxcaster.com/conus_snowfall.htm

-Model Soundings
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?te xt=KMDT#

The last link is listed above as model soundings which takes all of the data to print out all sorts of information including precipitation type along with dynamics such as Omega. This is very complex and takes some time getting used to. Also you may see this data instead of in charts, it is sometimes used in SKEWT T charts.

I hope all of this information helped out... Keep in mind precipitation amounts is QPF, with 500mb aloft being the jet stream, 700mb aloft measuring relative humidity, 850mb aloft measuring 5,000ft aloft temperatures, 925-1000mb measuring surface temperatures. Generally I would look at the GFS and NAM first to get a hang of it along with reading the tutorial links. Use the 850mb and 2m charts for the GFS especially as they are pretty self explanatory and color coded. You will find some maps for international models are confusing and black and white.

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

Follow my 24hr forecasts on Twitter... Link and Facebook... Link.

Please post storm reports in this blog from across the Northeast during the winter storm and please post location of observation in each report...

This blog is in progress. Check back soon...

Winter Forecast 2011-2012... Link

Historic October Nor'easter...
Higher cirrus will begin to flood the northern Middle Atlantic later in the day Friday after high temperatures in the mid 40s with partly cloudy skies. Clouds will begin to thicken and lower Friday night with precipitation moving northward as a 1000hPa coastal low pressure moves up the coast. The low pressure will follow an ideal track up and along the coast and if it were winter... this would be a major snowstorm for all of the Northeast including towards the coast. But given climatological means during late October, snow will only fall in certain locations well to the northwest. Precipitation will move northward as rain into Virginia and Maryland Friday night and move up into southern Pennsylvania also as rain. Evaporational cooling will begin as 2m temperatures fall to near dewpoint values late Friday night changing over to snow for southern Pennsylvania particularily for elevations above 800ft with a rain/snow mix in the valleys.

As the low begins to intensify further, a deformation axis will likely form well to the west of the center of circulation. The placement of this axis is key to the snow accumulation region as it will bring cold air down the surface in the form of dynamic cooling. Given the low track this axis is likely to form in eastern Pennsylvania up through central New England. Saturday will feature well below normal highs withs highs not reaching 40 as far south as Washington DC. Precipitation will intensify during the day. Ground temperatures initially in the 40s and marginal boundary layer temperatures will keep the highest accumulations in the higher elevations with several inches possible above 200ft (perhaps up to 12in as far south as South Mountain, Pennsylvania). Elsewhere valley locations can also expect some light snow accumulation as far south as northern Maryland. For the I-95 corridor, a mix of rain and snow is likely with no accumulation. Snow accumulations up through New England are likely 4-7in for the valleys and 8-14in for the higher elevations. I could even envision higher amounts given the strength of the deformation axis. Total QPF printout from guidance such as the ECMWF and GEFS suggest 1.0in-2.0in across the entire Northeast.

Most of the snow will fall during the day Saturday. If timing were a bit more favorable such as Saturday night, this would have been a potentially record breaking, rare October snow event.

Given the high leaf foliage in some areas, the combination of wet snow will cause major tree damage in some locations especially in eastern Pennsylvania. Power outages are possible. Snow ratios will be near 6/7:1 with rates up to 0.5in/hr at times. Given the heavier snow rates at times, even areas with boundary layer temperatures at 34-35F may see a quick accumulation.

I want to raise a few critical points...

1) Current ground temperatures really have little to do with snow accumulation when rates fall above 0.5in/hr. Snow can accumulate even on roads. The sun angle in late October is like mid February and has little impact. Combine this with marginal temperatures, cloud cover, and heavy snow rates this will cause snow to accumulate very easily after the initial lighter snow.

2) The biggest concern is the trees which I have been hyping for the last 24hrs. Snow accumulations possibly over 10in in some areas of south-central Pennsylvania up through New England could bring devastation to trees. The heaviness of the wet snow on foliage is a disaster. And looking a records, this has never happened before in many areas!

3) I-95 is a tough forecast and is dependent on exact low track. But given the dynamics of this storm which may cause even thundersnow, the big cities should all change to snow at some point.

4) Given the time of year, water temperatures are very warm and the temperature gradient and the natural baroclinicity along the coast will cause the storm to rapidly undergo bombogenesis with very unusual mesoscale features. This will cause some areas to see rapidly high QPF totals.

Selected City Accumulations for the Northeast...
Hagerstown, MD- Rain/snow then heavy snow. Accumulations 5-12in
Baltimore, MD- Rain changing to snow. Accumulations up to 4in especially the higher hills.
Salisbury, MD- Mostly rain with a trace of snow
Pittsburgh, PA- Rain/snow then snow. Accumulations 2-4in
State College PA- Moderate snow. 5-7in
Williamsport, PA- Heavy snow. Accumulations 5-10in
Altoona, PA- Moderate snow. Accumulations 5-7in
Harrisburg, PA- Heavy snow. Snow accumulations 6-14in
Lancaster, PA- Heavy snow. Snow accumulations 6-13in
Philadelphia, PA- Rain/snow changing to snow. Accumulations 1-3in+
Allentown, PA- Heavy snow. Snow accumulations 6-14in
Scranton, PA- Heavy snow. Snow accumulations 6-12in
Washington, DC- Rain changing to rain/snow. Spotty 1-3in accumulations are possible
Wilmington, DE- Rain changing to rain/snow. Spotty 1-4in accumulations are possible
Dover, DE- Rain changing to rain/snow with trace accumulations
Trenton, NJ- Rain/snow changing to snow. Accumulations 2-4in
New York City, NY- Rain/snow changing to snow. Accumulations 1-6in depending on location.
Poughkeepsie, NY- Heavy snow. Accumulations 5-10in
Binghamton, NY- Light snow. Accumulations 3-6in
Ithaca, NY- Light snow. Accumulations 2-4in
Albany, NY-Moderate snow. Accumulations 4-8in
Hartford, CT- Rain/snow changing to heavy snow. Accumulations 4-7in
Concord, NH- Heavy snow. Accumulations 5-10in
Providence, RI- Rain changing to rain/snow. Spotty 1-3in accumulations
Worcester, MA- Heavy snow. Snow accumulations 6-13in
Boston, MA- Rain/snow with spotty accumulations 1-3in
Nantucket, MA- Heavy rain and high winds up to 60mph
Hyannis, MA- Heavy rain and gale force winds in excess of 60mph
Portland, ME- Heavy snow. Accumulations 4-9in
Bangor, ME- Heavy snow. Accumulations 6-12in
"Subject to Change"

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.CLIMATE...
SNOWFALL RECORDS HAVE BEEN BROKEN AT FIRST-ORDER CLIMATOLOGICAL
STATIONS HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT. THE OFFICIAL SNOWFALL
MEASUREMENT AT THE WILLIAMSPORT/LYCOMING AIRPORT CAME IN AT ONLY 1
INCH...BUT THAT WAS ENOUGH TO SET AN OCTOBER...HEAVIEST EARLIEST
SNOWFALL THERE. THE HARRISBURG INTL AIRPORT AT MIDDLETOWN RECORDED
5 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW AS OF 5 PM.

PREVIOUS OCT 29 DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS...
HARRISBURG /KMDT/ - TRACE IN 1952. ESTIMATED 3+ INCHES SO FAR TODAY.
WILLIAMSPORT /KIPT/ - 0.2 IN 2002. ESTIMATED AROUND 1 INCH SO FAR
TODAY.

SO FAR...THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL REPORT WAS 12.5 INCHES IN FAR WESTERN
ADAMS COUNTY...ATOP SOUTH MOUNTAIN AT AN ELEVATION AROUND 2000 FT
MSL. SIMILAR AMOUNTS OF 12.2 INCHES FELL AT LAUREL SUMMIT /APPROX
2600 FT MSL/ BY SHORTLY BEFORE 5 PM...AND IT WAS STILL SNOWING
THERE. BLUE KNOB SKI AREA AT NEARLY 3000 FT MSL IN WESTERN BLAIR
CTY ALSO RECEIVED 1 FOOT OF GOOD SNOWBALL-MAKIN SNOW. MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS IN THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY HAD 4 TO 7 INCHES. MANY PLACES FALLING BETWEEN
1400-1800 FT MSL TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KAOO...TO KUNV...AND
KAVP PICKED UP A STORM TOTAL OF 7-10 INCHES. EVEN A SEVERAL
HUNDRED FT ELEVATION INCREASE ACROSS YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTY
/DILLSBURG AND RAWLINSVILLE/ LED TO ABOUT 10 INCHES OF SNOW /WHICH
WAS NEARLY TWICE THE AMOUNT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS/.

Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
Quoting listenerVT:
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~~~~~~~~~:~) H A P P Y (~:~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~:~) B I R T H D A Y (~:~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~:~) R O D ! (~:~~~~~~~~~
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(_______________________________)




Thank you!!!!! A very creative birthday card. It makes up for the large branches from the fully leafed Gingko tree that I had to haul off the street and sidewalk last night.
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waiting for some official numbers.....
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
Hey guys just checking in here. Snow started around 1 and is still going now at almost 2 AM. My building is 1 of 4 on campus with electricity. I haven't been able to measure but there's got to be a foot on the ground. Many nice trees have lost there limbs and large branches have fallen everywhere. One of the entrances into a building was blocked by a tree that completely snapped. While watching movies all day with my friends we saw at least 7 or 8 flashes of green light or so from transformers blowing up and flashes of lightening too. This is a major storm for any winter month. It seems like since this time last year we've gone straight from winter to summer and now right into winter. Back at my house near LT we've lost quite a few nice trees and my parents aren't too happy. The Merritt Parkway was closed all afternoon I believe and conditions are treacherous. Students here are making the most of things by have snowball fights, I've seen two snowmen that must be 8 feet tall. "Snowtober" will really be one to remember. Goodnight everyone!
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 677
Snow started about 2230 and is winding down now. Zip nada
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Also, "kudos" to Blizz, you predicted a big snow event days in advance. I was a "doubting Thomas" as they say, thinking that climatology would win out--well it didn't! Well done. Also, as PalmyraP. said in post #390, I hope we didn't "shoot our load" sort to speak with this early storm. May this be the first of many this winter(or fall and winter!)LT--Blizz I think your snow totals prediction were really very good.
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Here in central Stamford CT. I've gotten about 4-5", hard to tell because of the compression of the snow and melting.. Breezy now out of the NNW 10-15mph with gusts near 25mph. Temp. has been between 32-33F almost all day and tonight since the snow started. The Barometer never got below 29.80" now it is 29.82"and rising. Very light snow still falling. LT ( Never lost power at my house, but over 559,000 homes without power in CT.Got my heater fixed!)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
11.5 inches of snow here in Western Sullivan County NY
Elevation 1200
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
422. ADCS
Quoting wxgeek723:
Just curious, is there anyone on here from southern New Jersey, Delaware, or Maryland along and southeast of I-95 who can say they've had accumulating snow?


There were a few accumulating piles earlier, but nothing more than a quarter of an inch
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just curious, is there anyone on here from southern New Jersey, Delaware, or Maryland along and southeast of I-95 who can say they've had accumulating snow?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
420. Gaara
Looks like danbury will end up with 15"+

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
DANBURY 13.2 900 PM 10/29 SKYWARN SPOTTER
RIDGEFIELD 10.0 450 PM 10/29 PUBLIC
SHELTON 7.4 725 PM 10/29 PUBLIC
GREENWICH 7.0 630 PM 10/29 SKYWARN SPOTTER
MONROE 7.0 249 PM 10/29 PUBLIC
BROOKFIELD 6.0 500 PM 10/29 SKYWARN SPOTTER
NEWTOWN 5.0 323 PM 10/29 SKYWARN SPOTTER
NORWALK 3.5 330 PM 10/29 PUBLIC
DARIEN 3.5 559 PM 10/29 SKYWARN SPOTTER
BRIDGEPORT 2.5 326 PM 10/29 COOP OBSERVER
STAMFORD 2.0 145 PM 10/29 SKYWARN SPOTTER
STRATFORD 1.3 119 PM 10/29 PUBLIC

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
HADDAM 2.0 523 PM 10/29 PUBLIC

...NEW HAVEN COUNTY...
OXFORD 8.5 531 PM 10/29 PUBLIC
SEYMOUR 7.0 457 PM 10/29 PUBLIC
NORTH HAVEN 6.7 705 PM 10/29 SKYWARN SPOTTER
MERIDEN 4.0 412 PM 10/29 PUBLIC
NEW HAVEN 1.1 233 PM 10/29 PUBLIC
EAST DERBY 1.0 234 PM 10/29 PUBLIC
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
FYI-

The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 12
hours for the storm that has been affecting our region. Appreciation
is extended to Highway departments... cooperative observers... Skywarn
spotters and media for these reports. This summary is also available
on our home Page at weather.Gov/Albany

********************storm total snowfall********************

Location storm total time/date comments
snowfall of
/inches/ measurement

Massachusetts

... Berkshire County...
Peru 23.0 730 PM 10/29 wten
Washington 22.0 730 PM 10/29 broadcast media
Lee 21.0 730 PM 10/29 wten
Hinsdale 19.0 730 PM 10/29 wten
New Marlborough 16.5 720 PM 10/29 broadcast media
Great Barrington 15.0 820 PM 10/29 broadcast media
Savoy 14.5 730 PM 10/29 wten
Becket 14.0 730 PM 10/29 wten
Lanesborough 13.0 919 PM 10/29 weathernet6
Pittsfield 12.0 710 PM 10/29 broadcast media
Cheshire 12.0 730 PM 10/29 wten
Lenox Dale 11.8 537 PM 10/29 co-op observer
Williamstown 6.0 720 PM 10/29 broadcast media
1 NE Stearnsville 6.0 530 PM 10/29 NWS employee

New York

... Albany County...
Ravena 6.8 734 PM 10/29 weathernet6
Preston Hollow 4.0 737 PM 10/29 weathernet6
Medusa 2.8 601 PM 10/29 weathernet6
1 NE shakers 1.6 750 PM 10/29 Airport
1 ENE McKownville 1.5 800 PM 10/29 NWS office
Feura Bush 1.2 627 PM 10/29 weathernet6
Delmar 1.0 614 PM 10/29 weathernet6
Colonie 0.8 709 PM 10/29 weathernet6

... Columbia County...
Copake Falls 13.0 700 PM 10/29 broadcast media
North Hillsdale 10.5 733 PM 10/29 spotter
Red Rock 10.0 700 PM 10/29 Emergency Mngr
Copake 6.0 700 PM 10/29 Emergency Mngr
Claverack 4.5 650 PM 10/29 broadcast media
Kinderhook 4.2 851 PM 10/29 spotter
Ghent 4.0 730 PM 10/29 weathernet6
Chatham Center 3.5 827 PM 10/29 weathernet6
North Chatham 3.0 552 PM 10/29 weathernet6
Livingston 3.0 546 PM 10/29 weathernet6
Valatie 3.0 616 PM 10/29 public

... Dutchess County...
Millbrook 17.9 906 PM 10/29 spotter
Pine Plains 11.0 545 PM 10/29 spotter
Dover Plains 9.0 411 PM 10/29 public
Clinton Corners 5.5 500 PM 10/29 public
Rhinebeck 5.5 529 PM 10/29 spotter
Salt Point 4.5 811 PM 10/29 trained spotter

... Greene County...
Halcott Center 8.0 836 PM 10/29 trained spotter
Freehold 6.0 600 PM 10/29 spotter
Catskill 3.0 644 PM 10/29 weathernet6
Cairo 2.1 520 PM 10/29 weathernet6
Hannacroix 2.0 418 PM 10/29 public

... Montgomery County...
Fonda 1.0 921 PM 10/29 weathernet6

... Rensselaer County...
West Stephentown 7.0 729 PM 10/29 trained spotter
Sycaway 3.2 845 PM 10/29 NWS employee
Center Brunswick 0.8 610 PM 10/29 weathernet6

... Saratoga County...
Clifton Park 1.6 834 PM 10/29 NWS employee

... Schenectady County...
Duanesburg 1.0 553 PM 10/29 weathernet6

... Schoharie County...
Richmondville 3.8 907 PM 10/29 weathernet6
Jefferson 3.5 613 PM 10/29 weathernet6
Huntersland 2.0 558 PM 10/29 weathernet6
Charlotteville 1.2 607 PM 10/29 weathernet6
Schoharie 0.4 604 PM 10/29 weathernet6

... Ulster County...
Palentown 9.5 723 PM 10/29 spotter
Shandaken 9.0 627 PM 10/29 public
Phoenicia 8.0 624 PM 10/29 weathernet6
West Shokan 7.5 820 PM 10/29 weathernet6
Rifton 5.1 444 PM 10/29 public - since 1pm
Kingston 4.6 608 PM 10/29 spotter
Kerhonkson 3.0 449 PM 10/29 weathernet6
Saugerties 2.8 835 PM 10/29 weathernet6
Woodstock 2.0 333 PM 10/29 trained spotter
Marlboro 2.0 216 PM 10/29 trained spotter
Esopus 1.3 441 PM 10/29 weathernet6

... Washington County...
Cossayuna 0.2 628 PM 10/29 weathernet6

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
418. bwi
These were totals as of 4pm. Likely higher now in PA where it's still coming down.

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES FROM 800 AM EDT FRI OCT
28 THROUGH 400 PM EDT SAT OCT 29...

...MARYLAND...
FROSTBURG 9.5
REDHOUSE 7.0
WOODLAND 1 W 7.0
MC HENRY 4.8 SSE 6.5
OAKLAND 5.0
SMITHSBURG 4.3

...NEW JERSEY...
WEST MILFORD 6.0
WHITEHOUSE 6.0
RANDOLPH TWP 5.0
SPARTA 4.7
WANTAGE 4.4

...NEW YORK...
HARRIMAN 3.5
YONKERS 3.0
RYE 2.5

...PENNSYLVANIA...
OGLETOWN 10.0
BOSWELL 9.8
SPRINGTOWN 8.5
MARKLEYSBURG 7.0
SOUDERTON 6.5
DUBLIN 5.5
FARMINGTON 5.0
MEYERSDALE 4.0
WESTMONT 1 W 3.2
SCHELLSBURG 3 WNW 3.0

...VIRGINIA...
SKYLAND 9.0
BIG MEADOWS 8.0
KEEZLETOWN 5.3
FRONT ROYAL 5.0
LACEY SPRING 2 S 4.5
MUSTOE 1 WSW 4.1
MASSANUTTEN 1 SE 4.0
CHURCHVILLE 4 NNW 3.2

...WEST VIRGINIA...
TERRA ALTA 10.0
CHERRY GROVE 6 WSW 8.0
FRANKLIN 4 W 8.0
SMITH CROSSROADS 1 W 7.3
CORTLAND 2 SW 6.5
ROMNEY 4 E 6.4
KLINE GAP 2 NE 6.0
LOST RIVER 6.0
LEHEW 2 WNW 5.0


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
417. bwi
Well, we didn't get any snow that stuck, but I do appreciate the advance warning Blizz and the bloggers put up on Thursday afternoon. I was able to warn a co-worker who was planning on going camping at 3k feet elevation in West Virginia! That would have been a disaster. They got some serious snow out there.

Closer to DC, I think it melted and compressed pretty fast, so the totals on the ground don't seem like much. But it did come down pretty hard for a while. Was good to see -- makes me psyched for a nice stormy winter.
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You may all be breaking records but Philly's 2.2" October record remains unthreatened. Heavy rain and snow right now.

Eh, I've always been pessimistic about these things but I always end up pleasantly surprised. For the first time in a while my expectations were met. Oh well.
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Quoting Blizzard92:
Hope everyone enjoyed this once in a lifetime October snowstorm, which we probably may never see an equivalent for a very very long time. Sorry to hear about many peoples woes. I am not too pleased with my snow total accumulation forecasts for selected cities, but it was a tough storm given it has never happened before in October. I am glad we were able to track this storm out from far out and pinpoint it; ECMWF wins! No snow up here in Ithaca either only a 10min shot of flurries. Oh well.


I think you did a very good job. You saw this coming and it worked out. so glad we didn't get anymore. I saw a lot of tree damage. thankfully, so far I only lost a limb from one tree. trees are very expensive to replace.

No more snow in October, except for maybe some flurries or light dusting. that i can deal with, but this heavy wet stuff with leaves on the trees. I don't think I have seen trees in such bad shape before. Luckily, I have only 2 second power outages. some parts of Palmyra (the town not the grumpy old man) have lost power for hours
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
Quoting Blizzard92:
Definitely broke the previous October record for KMDT of 2.1in. Not sure what the official total for today is yet? Many other records I assume have been broken also today.


Yep, daily record for NYC was broken by 1PM, as there has never even been a day with an inch of snow in October (.8" on Oct 30th, 1925) and the all time record for total snowfall in October was broken by 2PM with 1.3." Who knows where the new mark will be after these final bands go through, but we got at least 5 times more snow than any October since sometime prior to 1869.
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Quoting HeavySnow:
I'll be 78 next time, if the pattern holds and I'm not 6 feet under.


I will deliver the eulogy...
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
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*********************************************
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Definitely broke the previous October record for KMDT of 2.1in. Not sure what the official total for today is yet? Many other records I assume have been broken also today.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Quoting photonchaser:
Hurricane Force Wind Warning just off the coast near me!


Wow. Do take care!
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Quoting bwi:
And sure enough, HPC shows a 999mb low just off Ocean City!


Wow!
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Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
still light snow...I measured 5.0" @ 230pm. I would guess I have gotten close to another 2". I will check once the snow has stopped.
Campbelltown, PA just east of Hershey

I was out for 2 hours knocking the snow from all my trees and bushes. what a workout. and every piece of clothing was soaked. My gloves were the wettest


Leaves really make a difference, eh?
Good for you tending the flora!
Happy drying out. :-)
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Quoting Pcroton:


Croton, NY. Just north of Ossining. 465ft elevation, 2 miles east of the Hudson River.


And we're what maybe halfway through. That's one wicked band setting up!





Thanks for the photo! Very cool.
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Quoting Mason803:
took a roadtrip across adams county


cashtown 4w 9.5"

big flat ridge 12.5"


pictures to come at some point


Looking forward to your photos! Thanks!
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Quoting 717WeatherLover:
Hello everyone! As much as I love snow, I will have to admit that it won today. I hit a patch of black ice down by Lake Pinchot on the way to dog training this morning around 10:30 and smacked into the guiderail doing 40. Van just started sliding sideways out of the blue and steering or braking did nothing. Damage doesn't look all that bad but the passenger side door won't open so I guess it is worse than I thought. On top of that a tree limb fell on the roof when I was on my way home.

We also lost power for a number of hours this afternoon. First time in the 14 years we have lived in this development off of Union Deposit Road. The traffic light at UD/Nyes was totally out, not even blinking.

What a weather year this has been!


YIKES! YIKES!! and YIKES!!!

I think you should get to name this storm!

Do take care. They say bad things come in threes. I hope that means you're in the clear now!!
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Got to play outside in it all day. We ended up cancelling a bunch of flights. Snow was VERY intense at some points at the Harrisburg International Airport (for those who don't know where I was). I'd say 5-6" there. Just wild stuff.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
Quoting Blizzard92:
Hope everyone enjoyed this once in a lifetime October snowstorm, which we probably may never see an equivalent for a very very long time. Sorry to hear about many peoples woes. I am not too pleased with my snow total accumulation forecasts for selected cities, but it was a tough storm given it has never happened before in October. I am glad we were able to track this storm out from far out and pinpoint it; ECMWF wins! No snow up here in Ithaca either only a 10min shot of flurries. Oh well.


We have had snow many times in October (as early as the 4th, as I recall). But it never stays long.

This time we in NW VT have gotten nothing so far and may wake up to a dusting before it warms up to 42 degrees.

Someone is holding the weather map upsidedown.
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It's hard to tell how much snow we have had as it's been so compacted with sleet and melting with the temps holding steady at 33 all day. I measure 4.5" on my balcony, but the streets are just wet now. It has to be more like 6" total thus far with a bit more to go.The wind blew the snows from the trees so they're doing just fine.

As for this happening once in a lifetime, I agree it's incredibly rare, but, having said that, the way the weather has been over the past couple of years, it wouldn't surprise me if it happened again in the not so distant future. Who knows, this planet is capable of some wacky weather.
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I saw it on October 10, 1979 and now. 14 then and 46 now. There was more then. once every 32 years. I'll be 78 next time, if the pattern holds and I'm not 6 feet under.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
Hope everyone enjoyed this once in a lifetime October snowstorm, which we probably may never see an equivalent for a very very long time. Sorry to hear about many peoples woes. I am not too pleased with my snow total accumulation forecasts for selected cities, but it was a tough storm given it has never happened before in October. I am glad we were able to track this storm out from far out and pinpoint it; ECMWF wins! No snow up here in Ithaca either only a 10min shot of flurries. Oh well.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
I have a rain snow mix right now.

LOLOL will I ever win
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398. Gaara
Light precip here in Milford, CT, with just some smallish flakes and sleet. Winds are shifting and picking up. Most of the stuff on the roads has washed away.. Driveways and sidewalks are covered in about an inch of pure slush. Looking forward to the big band moving in.
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All snow in Portland now, changing over from rain to snow alot faster than expected.
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Yeppers! Worse thing about this storm is that Rocky Horror Picture Show at Hershey Theater tonight was canceled!
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^^ sounds like an excuse to drink lol
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
Hello everyone! As much as I love snow, I will have to admit that it won today. I hit a patch of black ice down by Lake Pinchot on the way to dog training this morning around 10:30 and smacked into the guiderail doing 40. Van just started sliding sideways out of the blue and steering or braking did nothing. Damage doesn't look all that bad but the passenger side door won't open so I guess it is worse than I thought. On top of that a tree limb fell on the roof when I was on my way home.

We also lost power for a number of hours this afternoon. First time in the 14 years we have lived in this development off of Union Deposit Road. The traffic light at UD/Nyes was totally out, not even blinking.

What a weather year this has been!
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Just talked to a friend in Olivebridge, NY (Catskill Mtns). She's got 10 inches on the ground and counting. Power has been flickering for a couple hours.
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Oh noes! How will Christie eat frozen pizza for dinner?
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
Since Gov. Chris Christie lost electrical power...
NJ is now under a State of Emergency.
Oy Vey!
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 23
Power went "bye-bye" for about 3 hours and just came back. Snow's over here in Camp Hill and I'd say we received about 4-5 inches. Hard to tell because there's a crop of Pumpkin king snowmen and what's left is a sloppy mess.

Nice storm.

Interesting correlation: The record for October snow in HBG was 1972, which was also the "wettest year on record", both have been broken today and in 2011. In the 72-73 winter, the grand total for snowfall was a mere 6 inches.

Let's hope that's not the case.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
Quoting HeavySnow:
especially with all that cheese shaken by the quake and then covered in wet snow. Mess indeed.


LOL- can't help the fact of the Name! Them'there quake'in marshes. ;)
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 23
took a roadtrip across adams county


cashtown 4w 9.5"

big flat ridge 12.5"


pictures to come at some point
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
Mason - refresh my memory...when do you report on final snow accumulation? Also, I checked on my outer cylinder @ 230 and it was completely covered over at the top. Not filled to the top, just coverd over from the wet snow sticking together. I guess I won't be able to report on the water content, unless you have some other way I can use


report final accum when you can confirm accum has ended. you can always take a snow core sample to figure out water equiv on the ground. as far as getting a accurate measurement to what has fallen, it's kind of hard without collecting the entire event.

Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
Quoting Alee6k:
About 1.5 near Cheesequake, NJ
Man is it messy here... light snow falling.
especially with all that cheese shaken by the quake and then covered in wet snow. Mess indeed.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
About 1.5 near Cheesequake, NJ
Man is it messy here... light snow falling.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 23
I just measured 4 to 4.5" of snow and slush near Halifax (north of Harrisburg). I told my calc class 4" on Friday so I'm pretty happy with how that worked out, lol.

Many runs of the GFS & NAM give Harrisburg lows in the teens Sunday night. Do you think these are right blizz? Maybe the models are overplaying the snowpack effect a bit. I'm concerned about the possibility of black ice for the morning commute Monday AM.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
Final totals..
0.16" of rain
7.6" of snow

Campbelltown, PA just east of Hershey
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
Ended up with with 7.5 inches. 12 reported in Blue Knob, along with power outages.
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any chance those showers some of them pretty heavy over in Ohio make there way into western PA ? And are they associated with another system, this one, or lake effect coming off Erie ?
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 140
Pure snow at last!
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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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