Unprecedented, Destructive October Snowstorm!

By: Zachary Labe , 1:04 PM GMT on October 25, 2011

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Well it is official... the first winter storm blog of the year. A wet snow is possible across the higher elevations of New England on October 27 with rain elsewhere. Another, potentially larger, threat of snow looms towards the weekend. I will post more on that in this blog later today. Stay tuned!

Thoughts on October 27 Rain/Snow Event
As the cold front begins to slow sink south, a 1004mb low will traverse along the front across northern Maryland through southern New Jersey. Precipitation will generally be light to moderate in most locations with the heaviest bands located about 50-100mi north of the 850hPa low center. Current guidance suggests rain will be the dominant precipitation type as it begins to funnel into the region during the first half of Thursday with only a few higher elevations in the Catskills and Berkshires getting a rain/snow mix (primarily above 2000ft).

As the low begins to strengthen in southern New Jersey before it exits the coast, a northwest flow will advect colder air into the region midday Thursday. H85 thermals will drop from +4C to (-1)-(-3)C across northern locations particularily in southern New York/northern Pennsylvania and across central New England. 2m temperatures will begin to fall below 34F as precipitation begins mixing with and then changing to a wet snow. Given the warmer boundary layer temperatures, snow will begin to fall only above 1000ft elevation for most locations. Snow ratios near 6/7:1 will keep accumulations minimal given warm ground temperatures and the higher sun angle. Also lower precipitation rates will prevent major accumulations.

The now 1000mb low will begin to slowly deepen off the coast of New England as cold air continues to advect into the region Thursday evening. A deformation band of snow along a concentrated area of frontogenesis will enhance precipitation rates for southern New York and northern Pennsylvania in through central New England. 6hr QPF totals in high resolution guidance suggest 0.25-0.5in of precipitation in this period. This is likely the time of greatest snow accumulation. Elevations above 1500ft will likely see 1-4in of snow with isolated higher amounts. Valley locations will likely see only a trace to 2in of snow. This snow area will again be concentrated from northern Pennsylvania up through New Hampshire in a narrow band.

Total QPF will range from a low near .3in around the Pittsburgh region gradually increasing to over 1in near Boston. For locations south of I-80 across Pennsylvania little to no snow is likely unless higher precipitation rates can be met, which are not likely at this point. Temperatures will remain in the chilly upper 30s to lower 40s with rain. No I-95 locations are likely to see any snowfall in this round.

Radar...
Radar...

Warnings...
Warnings...

NAO...
NAO...

This is my current rain/snow line...
Du Bois, PA - Jersey Shore, PA - Towanda, PA - Carbondale, PA - Monticello, NY - Poughkeepsie, NY - Torrington, CT - Amherst, MA - Concord, NH

*Locations along and to the north of this line remain at the greatest risk for accumulation snow for the October 27 period particularily for elevations above 800ft.

Storm Reports...
None.

Storm Impacts...
1. Heavy leaf foliage and the combination of wet snow may cause increased falling trees and powerlines with widespread effects for snow accumulation areas.
2. Wet snow may fall heavy at times for elevations above 2000ft particularily in the Catskills.
3. Coldest diurnal temperatures of the year for many locations.
4. More rainfall for already water-sogged locations adding to the record annual totals.
5. Second round snowfall is possible Saturday with wider impacts if cyclogenesis is met.

Snow Map...

*Elevations above 800ft have the highest threat for snow accumulations.

Selected City Accumulations for the Northeast...
Hagerstown, MD- Light to moderate rain up to .5in
Baltimore, MD- Light to moderate rain up to .5in
Salisbury, MD- Rain showers up to .5in
Washington, DC- Rain showers up to .5in
Wilmington, DE- Rain showers up to .5in
Dover, DE- Rain showers up to .5in
Trenton, NJ- Moderate steady rain up to .6in
New York City, NY- Moderate steady rain up to .7in
Poughkeepsie, NY- Moderate rain changing to rain/snow mix. No snow accumulation. Higher elevations up to 1in
Binghamton, NY- Light rain changing to rain/snow and then snow. Snow accumulations C-2in
Ithaca, NY- Light rain changing to rain/snow then snow. Snow accumulations C-2in
Albany, NY- Light rain then snow. Snow accumulations C-1in
Hartford, CT- Light rain then rain/snow mix. No snow accumulation.
Concord, NH- Rain/snow then all snow. Snow accumulations C-2in
Providence, RI- Moderate rain up to .75in
Worcester, MA- Moderate rain then rain/snow mix. No snow accumulation
Boston, MA- Moderate rain up to 1.0in
Nantucket, MA- Moderate rain up to 1.0in and gusty winds up to 30mph
Hyannis, MA- Moderate rain up to 1.0in and gusty winds up to 30mph
Portland, ME- Moderate rain up to 1.0in
Bangor, ME- Light rain up to .25in
"Subject to Change"

Model Analysis
All guidance suggests a class overrunning precipitation event along the cold front. Differences arise in terms of temperature thermals considering the NAM and GFS. ECMWF takes a middle route between the two. GFS remains on the warmer side of guidance favoring H85 heights near 0C for the majority of the precipitation event across New York State into New England. 2m temperatures remain marginal to perhaps a tad too warm with KITH readings even into the upper 30s. Given recent analysis of the GFS global versus the ensemble track, the operational remains warmer for H85 thermals in comparison to the majority of the ensembles. Looking at the air mass advecting southward and climatological means, it would suggest GFS 2m temperatures with NAM H85 temperatures. The NAM takes a colder route for boundary layer temperatures favoring low 30s for many locations in my favored snow accumulation region. This would allow advisory type snow accumulations particularily above 2000ft. QPF is similar for all guidance ranging from 0.5-1in depending on location with higher amounts towards New England and lower amounts towards western and northern areas. It is very important to note precipitation rates given this will pull colder air to the surface and allow the transition from rain to snow. Most locations will see light to moderate rates inhibiting the majority of snow accumulation. Keep an eye on the next 48 hours of models runs particularily to 2m temperatures between the NAM and GFS. The SREF is closer to the NAM with 12hr snow probabilities for 1in+ very close to my snow map above.

October 28-29 Coastal Storm Forecast
Higher cirrus will begin to flood the northern Middle Atlantic later in the day Friday after high temperatures in the mid 40s with partly cloudy skies. Clouds will begin to thicken and lower Friday night with precipitation moving northward as a 1000hPa coastal low pressure moves up the coast. The low pressure will follow an ideal track up and along the coast and if it were winter... this would be a major snowstorm for all of the Northeast including towards the coast. But given climatological means during late October, snow will only fall in certain locations well to the northwest. Precipitation will move northward as rain into Virginia and Maryland Friday night and move up into southern Pennsylvania also as rain. Evaporational cooling will begin as 2m temperatures fall to near dewpoint values late Friday night changing over to snow for southern Pennsylvania particularily for elevations above 800ft with a rain/snow mix in the valleys.

As the low begins to intensify further, a deformation axis will likely form well to the west of the center of circulation. The placement of this axis is key to the snow accumulation region as it will bring cold air down the surface in the form of dynamic cooling. Given the low track this axis is likely to form in eastern Pennsylvania up through central New England. Saturday will feature well below normal highs withs highs not reaching 40 as far south as Washington DC. Precipitation will intensify during the day. Ground temperatures initially in the 40s and marginal boundary layer temperatures will keep the highest accumulations in the higher elevations with several inches possible above 1000ft (perhaps up to 6in as far south as South Mountain, Pennsylvania). Elsewhere valley locations can also expect some light snow accumulation as far south as northern Maryland. For the I-95 corridor, a mix of rain and snow is likely with no accumulation. Snow accumulations up through New England are likely 1-4in for the valleys and 3-7in for the higher elevations. I could even envision higher amounts given the strength of the deformation axis. Total QPF printout from guidance such as the ECMWF and GEFS suggest .4in-1.0in across the entire Northeast.

Most of the snow will fall during the day Saturday. If timing were a bit more favorable such as Saturday night, this would have been a potentially record breaking, rare October snow event.

Given the high leaf foliage in some areas, the combination of wet snow will cause major tree damage in some locations especially in eastern Pennsylvania. Power outages are possible. Snow ratios will be near 6/7:1 with rates up to 0.5in/hr at times. Given the heavier snow rates at times, even areas with boundary layer temperatures at 34-35F may see a quick accumulation.

There are still some concerns about this storm being too far southeast such as the operational GFS suggests, but it is likely given the ensemble and ECMWF support that this coastal low will affect a large area of the Northeast giving a quick taste of winter. Stay tuned!

Please post storm reports in this blog from across the Northeast during the winter storm and please post location of observation in each report...

This blog is in progress. Check back soon...

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Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

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206. PalmyraPunishment
12:54 PM GMT on December 07, 2011
Still 50f here in Camp Hill...
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
204. CapeCoralStorm
6:29 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Blizz, whats your best guess at what kind of snowfall New Castle/Wilmington de could see?
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 213
203. shipweather
6:26 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
I'll be doing what I can. It's already cloudy here. Some very high level clouds. Not totally dark or anything yet. It's also 48 degrees at KMDT.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
202. Gaara
6:24 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Argh.. Trying to get in a round of disc golf in Warwick, NY on Sunday. Might need to bring my boots.

We managed a nice wintry mix of mainly rain and sleet last night in New Haven.. Some of our commuters from the northern half of the state (CT) came into work with a nice half inch of ice and snow on their roofs. It's too early for this crap!
Member Since: December 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 355
201. weatherman321
6:23 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Im glad i decided to stay in PA for college. I finally realized I couldn't live without seeing snow! I hope your right blizz about the accumulations around here, can't wait!!
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 140
200. Zachary Labe
6:19 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
I can't believe I am missing this! I missed this year a hurricane, earthquake, historic flood, and historic fall snowstorm in Harrisburg... what a joke! haha. Please everyone post updates from around Harrisburg, I cannot wait to hear!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
199. MarylandGirl
6:18 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Unbelieveable that we are all back and talking SNOW before Halloween!!! I know we may get a dusting here in SOMD and that alone should set October records for us.....cannot wait to see what happens west and north of here. I think it will look like we did after Irene got done with us! Trees down everywhere.
Blizz, thanks for staying with us though the college demands! To all my other 'winter' friends, stay safe!
JoAnn
Member Since: September 10, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 486
198. testbenchdude
6:18 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
My field trip got cancelled for tomorrow, which is awesome because now I can spend all day geeking out over this storm! At least, until my power goes out.
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 217
197. shipweather
6:15 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
It's a party.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
196. Zachary Labe
6:10 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting weatherman321:
What is the chances of seeing any measurable snow around pittsburgh,Pa .. I live about 45min east of there, accumulation forecasts here very from a coating - inch all the way up to 2-5inches, quite different situations there, especially with heavy snow ..

Several inches are possible, maybe 1-4in or 2-5in. I probably would have extended the advisory into Allegheny County.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
195. weatherman321
6:08 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
What is the chances of seeing any measurable snow around pittsburgh,Pa .. I live about 45min east of there, accumulation forecasts here very from a coating - inch all the way up to 2-5inches, quite different situations there, especially with heavy snow ..
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 140
194. MariettaMoon
6:02 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:

Nice to have everyone back! What a way to kick off the festivities!


You know it's bad news when Heavy Snow & Jim Cantori appear!
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
193. MariettaMoon
6:00 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
I'm heading up to my parents new mountain house in the southern Poconos on the Pocono Plateau tonight at about 1700 feet, right smack between Mount Pocono and Scranton-Wilkes Barre. Thank god the trees have lost there leaves there. I'm going up there to spend quality time with family but I can sneak out a few times to give reports.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
192. Zachary Labe
5:52 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting MariettaMoon:
Wow, look who came out of the woodwork. It's HeavySnow for an early appearance!

Nice to have everyone back! What a way to kick off the festivities!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
191. bwi
5:52 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:
I want to raise a few critical points...

1) Current ground temperatures really have little to do with snow accumulation when rates fall above 0.5in/hr. Snow can accumulate even on roads. The sun angle in late October is like mid February and has little impact. Combine this with marginal temperatures, cloud cover, and heavy snow rates this will cause snow to accumulate very easily after the initial lighter snow.

2) The biggest concern is the trees which I have been hyping for the last 24hrs. Snow accumulations possibly over 10in in some areas of south-central Pennsylvania up through New England could bring devastation to trees. The heaviness of the wet snow on foliage is a disaster. And looking a records, this has never happened before in many areas!

3) I-95 is a tough forecast and is dependent on exact low track. But given the dynamics of this storm which may cause even thundersnow, the big cities should all change to snow at some point.

4) Given the time of year, water temperatures are very warm and the temperature gradient along the baroclinicity along the coast will cause the storm to rapidly undergo bombogenesis with very unusual mesoscale features. This will cause some areas to see rapidly high QPF totals.


Well, maybe I'd better gas up the generator after all!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1356
190. MariettaMoon
5:51 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Wow, look who came out of the woodwork. It's HeavySnow for an early appearance!
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
189. bwi
5:49 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
It's great to be back. I do love to watch winter storms develop. I'm assuming no snow will stick in DC, but I noticed that they just extended the winter storm watches to Howard and Montgomery counties.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1356
188. Zachary Labe
5:48 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
I want to raise a few critical points...

1) Current ground temperatures really have little to do with snow accumulation when rates fall above 0.5in/hr. Snow can accumulate even on roads. The sun angle in late October is like mid February and has little impact. Combine this with marginal temperatures, cloud cover, and heavy snow rates this will cause snow to accumulate very easily after the initial lighter snow.

2) The biggest concern is the trees which I have been hyping for the last 24hrs. Snow accumulations possibly over 10in in some areas of south-central Pennsylvania up through New England could bring devastation to trees. The heaviness of the wet snow on foliage is a disaster. And looking a records, this has never happened before in many areas!

3) I-95 is a tough forecast and is dependent on exact low track. But given the dynamics of this storm which may cause even thundersnow, the big cities should all change to snow at some point.

4) Given the time of year, water temperatures are very warm and the temperature gradient and the natural baroclinicity along the coast will cause the storm to rapidly undergo bombogenesis with very unusual mesoscale features. This will cause some areas to see rapidly high QPF totals.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
187. HeavySnow
5:31 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
I said, Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
186. HeavySnow
5:30 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
185. PalmyraPunishment
5:29 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
JimCantore Jim Cantore
Looks like plenty of white mud to fall from the sky tomorrow... Off to Harrisburg, PA #snowtober #pawx #snow
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
184. MariettaMoon
5:25 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Jesus, 12Z NAM puts a fairly generous swath of 15" plus from the LSV, northeast into western CT and western MA.

Sounds like Mount Holly is getting ready to bump up amounts soon.

Some early season record snowfall amounts:

Harrisburg 2.1" set on October 30 1925
Williamsport 2.0" set on October 30 1925
Altoona 2.0" set on October 17 1977
Chambersburg 5.4" set on October 30 1925
State College 4.7" set on October 15 2009
York 2.0" set on October 30 1925
Lewistown 1.0" set on October 15 2009

The last widespread accumulating snowfall that affected the area this early in the season appears to have been back in 1972 when 1 to 2 inches of snow fell over portions of the lower Susquehanna valley.

Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
183. Beachllama
5:24 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Hi Everyone!

Winter is back early and I'm ready for a bit of snow here in Germantown, MD!

Tomorrow I have an appointment for a pedicure so if the rain changes to snow early enough I'll be wearing flip flops in the snow!

Local mets are predicting up to 2" where I am, but I think that number is too high, and they must mean on the grass only, since road temps around here are between 50 and 60F. Winter storm watches are up for my county.

What is the likelihood that the timing on this storm will change? If the coastal low forms later and/or more slowly than predicted will my area (DC region) get more snow?
Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 138
182. Zachary Labe
5:18 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Jim Cantore is going to Harrisburg. Yeah this is going to be bad!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
181. PalmyraPunishment
5:14 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
... Winter Storm Warning in effect from 2 am to 10 PM EDT
Saturday...

The National Weather Service in State College has issued a Winter
Storm Warning for heavy snow... which is in effect from 2 am to 10
PM EDT Saturday. The Winter Storm Watch is no longer in effect.

* Locations... most of central Pennsylvania

* hazard types... heavy wet snow... may be mixed with rain at the
onset.

* Accumulations... 6 to 10 inches of snow... with locally higher
amounts.

* Timing... around daybreak over southern locations... spreading
over the remainder of the warning area throughout the morning.

* Impacts... the heavy wet snow will create slippery travel
conditions. In addition widespread power outages will be
possible as the snow weighs heavily on trees which may still
have most of their leaves.

* Winds... north 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.

* Temperatures... in the lower to mid 30s.

* Visibilities... reduced to well under a mile at times.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means a significant amount
of snow is forecast that will make travel dangerous. If you must
travel... keep an extra flashlight... food... blanket and a cellular
phone in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Stay tuned to NOAA
Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for
the latest updates. Additional details can also be found
at... weather.Gov/statecollege.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
180. shipweather
5:13 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Winter Storm Warnings up!!!
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
179. shipweather
5:12 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
GAME ON!!!
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
178. PalmyraPunishment
5:08 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Jim Cantore is coming to Harrisburg...
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
177. PalmyraPunishment
4:50 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Storm Warnings are now up in Pittsburgh. State College will probably follow suit at 2:30 as always.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
176. CapeCoralStorm
4:29 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Wonder what to expect in New Castle,de...
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 213
175. lippy
3:23 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:
LSV bullseye on 12z NAM!


Yeah, looks like the 12z NAM has joined the 00z GFS with a little more westward shift. The 9:23 am Albany discussion update is already laying the groundwork for a northward expansion of the watch. We're getting into the NAM's wheelhouse as far as predictive reliability goes - already looking forward to the 18z. 12z GFS ought to be out in a sec.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
174. danielb1023
3:13 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Couple of questions......1. whats your thoughts on the area between 95 and west to 287? We have no advisories at this time but a winter storm watch across the passaic that is 2 miles from my home. 2. why such a catastrophic tree event? Because of the leaves still on the trees? or because of the saturated ground? or both? or neither? Thanks!
Member Since: September 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 256
173. PalmyraPunishment
3:00 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
It's everyone's favorite game: Guess who's not ready for ANYTHING?

From PennDot-- District 8 is Adams, Cumberland, Perry, Dauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon and York

* Plowable Snowfall Likely in Parts of D-8 Saturday *
A rare late-October plowable snowfall looks on track for parts of D-8 as a developing storm looks to take an almost perfect track for an eastern PA heavy snow event. As with late-season (March & April) snowstorms, elevation will make a HUGE difference. Looking at past similar storms in late-October and early-November, it's quite possible that locations in the mountains of District 8 could get 7 - 14 inches...which could obviously cause problems with some trees still having leaves. Down in the valleys and cities, temperatures will be a few degrees warmer and the wet snow will have a harder time accumulating. Still, I can see 3 - 6 inches on the grass and perhaps even a couple/few inches on some roads--the intensity of the snowfall will be a determining factor, as to how much snow can accumulate on the warm roads. Right now, I see precip (rain-snow mix) arriving between midnight and 3:00am in southwestern D-8 and spreading across all of D-8 by 6:00am or so. Initially, temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s--after an hour or two of precip (evaporational cooling), temps will dip to near 32 degrees...so expect accumulating snow across much of D-8 by daybreak. Periods of wet snow, heavy at times, will fall into the afternoon as temps hold near 32 in the mountains and between 32 and 38 in the valleys. The snowstorm will exit by sunset Saturday with lows dipping into the 20s...thus, a hard freeze is likely. Sunday will be partly sunny with highs around 40 degrees.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
172. Zachary Labe
2:58 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting onoweather:
oh ok I always thought it was mainly temperature. Are you going to have time to post a forecast map? I know all my professors are starting to load us up on work right now.

Probably not. But I will definitely be on the blog all weekend!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
171. onoweather
2:53 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
oh ok I always thought it was mainly temperature. Are you going to have time to post a forecast map? I know all my professors are starting to load us up on work right now.
Member Since: December 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 58
170. photonchaser
2:50 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Did anyone see the pictures out of Colorado of the snow a few days ago? The leaves were still on the trees there too, and it looked like a mess.
Member Since: June 3, 2004 Posts: 1 Comments: 134
169. Zachary Labe
2:49 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
+TSSN may be reported in isolated locations given the dynamics.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
168. Zachary Labe
2:38 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting onoweather:
What kind of ratios are we going to have? CTP says possibly 10:1, seems a bit high for october especially if its melting off.

Given the CCB axis over the LSV there will be excellent snow growth. Ratios are mostly dependent on snow growth and just partly temperature: it is a misconception.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
167. onoweather
2:34 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
What kind of ratios are we going to have? CTP says possibly 10:1, seems a bit high for october especially if its melting off.
Member Since: December 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 58
166. Zachary Labe
2:32 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting PalmyraPunishment:
This is going to be a disaster, isn't it?


NAM shows 2in of QPF for KMDT all snow! Disaster yes!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
165. shipweather
2:30 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
how soon until warnings?
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
164. PalmyraPunishment
2:29 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
This is going to be a disaster, isn't it?

Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
163. Zachary Labe
2:25 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting shipweather:
good news that probably comes with really bad consequences.

Just look at the historic buffalo storm and what happened to their trees.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
162. shipweather
2:22 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
good news that probably comes with really bad consequences.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
161. Mason803
2:20 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:
LSV bullseye on 12z NAM!


that's good news!!
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
160. Zachary Labe
2:18 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
LSV bullseye on 12z NAM!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
159. originalLT
1:48 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Got down to 30.4F last night by me. Hard ice on the cars, as the rain that fell froze on the car tops and hoods. LT Stamford CT.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7064
158. Mason803
1:02 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Im ready down this way. South Mountain should really cash in on this event.
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
157. Zachary Labe
12:52 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting poundcake23:
So I decided to join the fray here... Saw this last year and got loads of info. So I am to travel from Lancaster, PA to Ocean, NJ (NE Jersey) on Saturday. Is this stuff going to accumulate on the roads? Doesnt seem ground temps are favorable for roadway accumulations...

Welcome aboard! It could stick to roads if rates are high enough but highways may be okay especially after leaving Pennsylvania or heading towards Philly and onwards to Ocean City will be fine.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
156. MariettaMoon
12:51 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
National weather service offices going decidedly under guidance on forecast snow amounts, I'd imagine it's due to doubt on weather October daytime snow can accumulate to those model depths. In some cases, they may be cutting model numbers in half. ECMFW, GFS & NAM all predicting a swath of 12" plus somewhere with even a few hints of 15" here and there. NAM a little more east than ECMFW & GFS, with UKMET farther east than NAM, all hits for snowfall on land though.

Comparing local NWS offices, State College going highest with amounts, Upton next highest, with Mount Holly & Binghamton seeming to be exactly on the same page with lowest of the 4, but still moderate-high swaths of snowfall. None of the offices going as high as most of the model output though.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677

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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Student; Central PA SKYWARN Storm Spotter; American Meteorological Society Member; PA CoCoRaHS Branch Member

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