January 2 coastal storm?

By: Zachary Labe , 8:43 PM GMT on December 19, 2007

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"Afternoon thoughts"
Good morning. Today a powerful cold front will move through the area with heavy rain and high winds. A wind advisory and some high wind warnings are out for all of Pennsylvania. Also the spc has highlighted central and western pennsylvania for a slight risk of severe thunderstorms. The will be a low topped squall line which will form and possible have some miniature supercells with some rotation too. This will also be something to watch. After the front moves through the lake effect machine fires up with snow in the northwest.

Severe Weather Outlook...
Squall Line...

"Short Term Forecast"
Currently here in Harrisburg it is 53degrees with low clouds (ceiling about 700'), light rain, and fog (visibility about 1.5miles). Today could be interesting across the state with a narrow band of extremely heavy rain and a possible embeded thunderstorm. We could see some very high winds with the frontal passage in excess of 50mph for a hour or two. Also dropping temperatures will result in a few hour period of snow across the western half of the state. Expect no snow across the eastern half. Rain totals statewide should be about 1inch. Snow totals from front should be about 1inch across the north and west. Also lake effect will begin after the front and drop several inches in typical snow belts.

*More updates coming throughout the day...

Weather Warnings...
*High Wind Warning* for central Pennsylvania
*Wind Advisory* for northeastern Pennsylvania
*High Wind Warning* for extreme northwestern Pennsylvania
*Wind Advisory* for western Pennsylvania
*High Wind Warning* for southern Poconos
*Flood Watch* for eastern Pennyslvania

Warning Map...
Warning Map...

Radar...
Northeast Radar...

"Christmas Forecast(longterm)"
Christmas looks to remain cloudy across most of the state with some flurries in the northwest and southcentral. Also throughout next week are chances for small precipitation chances with small fronts. Rain during day and snow during night can be expected. Highs will remain seasonable until this weekend with the next major storm. Many questions remain with that storm. Track will play a major part in precipitation types. Also the 12z run of the GFS shows a coastal storm on New Year's Day with snow affecting the entire state. This will be something to watch, because this is also when the NAO goes negative again. Check out this model run for the January 1 storm...
12z GFS model run for January 1

So here is my christmas day forecast...

Eastern- (Allentown, Southern Poconos)-
Mostly cloudy and cold. High 40. Low 27.

South Central (Harrisburg, York, Lancaster)(my home)-
Cloudy and cold. Passing flurry. High 39. Low 27.

Southern- (Philadelphia)-
Partly cloudy and cool. High 45. Low 30.

Central- (State College)-
Cloudy and cold. High 34. Low 21.

Northern- (Bradford, Williamsport, Erie)-
A few snow showers. (coating of snow)High 32. Low 21.

Western- (Pittsburg)
Cloudy and cold. A few snow showers. High 36. Low 26.

Johnstown, Altoona-
A few snow showers. (coating of snow)High 31. Low 23.

Here is todays NAO...
NAO...

**Just to throw out there...
The EURO model and GFS model have extremely different scenerios for the weather after about Wednesday. Personally I do not think we can trust either model. Also the GFS develops a relatively strong coastal storm on Thursday, but it stays far enough off shore not to cause an impacts. We still though should watch the track, in case of any changes will have a dramatic impact on the coastline of the middle atlantic and new england.

***Update as of 200pm
Check out that mean looking squall line near Latrobe, PA.
It developed right behind that small dry slot. The squall line will probably contain very heavy rain along with isolated gusts to 65mph. I will have continuing updates on the severe weather throughout the day across Pennsylvania.
Mesoscale Discussion 2260
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2260
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN PA...CENTRAL NY...NRN DELMARVA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 231911Z - 232045Z
LINE SEGMENTS OF CONVECTION HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN WRN PA AND
WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS MAY INCREASE AS THESE LINES
MOVES EWD INTO CENTRAL/ERN PA...CENTRAL NY AND PERHAPS EXTEND AS FAR
SOUTH AS NRN DELMARVA. A WATCH ISSUANCE IS A POSSIBLE SOON.
CONVECTION IN WRN PA IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT IS MOVING RAPIDLY EWD THROUGH THE REGION. INSTABILITY IS
EXTREMELY WEAK...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ARE EXTREME WITH 50-70 KT
WINDS LOCATED LESS THAN 1 KM ABOVE THE SURFACE. AT THIS TIME...THE
WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE PREDOMINATELY SLY...WHICH IS
PARALLEL TO THE N-S ORIENTED LINE SEGMENTS. HOWEVER...A 100 KT JET
STREAK LOCATED AT 500 MB WAS LOCATED OVER KY AT NOON AND IS FORECAST
TO NOT ONLY INCREASE THE MID LEVEL WIND SPEEDS...BUT ALSO AID IN
VEERING THE WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO MORE WLY AND
PERPENDICULAR TO THE LINE SEGMENTS. THE WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE THE
LINE SEGMENTS MORE RAPIDLY EWD AND ALSO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT/DAMAGING WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE. THE
JET MAX IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED IN WRN PA BY 21Z...WITH INCREASED
THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE WITH LINE OF CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE SOON.
DESPITE THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE LINE SEGMENTS...THE WEAK
INSTABILITY MAY LIMIT THE VERTICAL DEPTH OF CONVECTION AND ONLY VERY
ISOLATED LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.

**400pm Update
A High Wind Warning has been issued now for most of central Pennsylvania replacing the wind advisory. The squall line looks like it weakend but it may restrengthen when it hits 60degree air here in the central Pennsylvania area. Stay tuned for furthur updates through this afternoon and evening. Also I noticed light snow is being reported in Erie after they were at 53degrees earlier today. So there is a dramatic temp. drop off after the front goes through.

**800pm Update
Well the front blew threw Harrisburg PA with some trees and power lines down near Middletown. It is now windy with falling temperatures. Lake effect snow will start in snow belt regions as soon as the winds shift from the southwest to the west. Check out the model run for the 2 of January. It has a major coastal storm with lots of snow. This will be something to watch.
18z gfs model run for January 2

***Note***
This is the format I will give forecasts for the State of Pennsylvania for normal days unless a major storm is expected.
Afternoon thoughts, Short term, Long term, Just to throw out there, and last any updates needed

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62. MDFirefighter
3:29 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
looks like it was yesterday's. i took it from the link that philliesrock posted. from looking at the GFS model, it shows rain for all of MD, DE & most of PA & NJ, but the Euro is showing snow. Guess we'll have to wait and see as we get closer. these models have been all over the place recently.
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
61. Zachary Labe
3:23 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
MDFirefighter- you bring up a good point. yesterday I was looking at a gfs model run and it showed a coastal low on the 31st. Then the next run it disappeared. Maybe the models are onto something. Is that 12z model for todays 12z run?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
60. Zachary Labe
3:21 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
Thank you. I am going to post a new blog shortly with lots of information on the long term cold and storm chances.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
59. MDFirefighter
3:19 PM GMT on December 24, 2007


Looks like the Mid-Atlantic could see some snow on the 31st. This is the 12z Euro Model
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
58. philliesrock
3:13 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
Hope for a coastal storm in 3 days?

Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 65 Comments: 3197
57. philliesrock
3:08 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
Here:

Link

I used to use the other sites, but forget them. This is the best one.
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 65 Comments: 3197
56. MDFirefighter
3:08 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
isn't the NAO forecasted to go negative around the 1st of the year?
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
55. Zachary Labe
3:07 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
Also does anybody have a link for the european model?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
54. Zachary Labe
3:06 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
Yes I think the possibility of a coastal storm is high for the first week of January. All the ingredients are there except for the NAO. I am anxious to see the 12z gfs. I will post a new blog later this morning.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
53. dean2007
2:06 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
Snowstorm for the coast is all I'm asking.
52. Alleyoops
1:53 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
Photobucket

Santy Claws iz coming tonite...I iz watching for him...

Have a MERRY CHRISTMAS
Member Since: April 18, 2007 Posts: 190 Comments: 29423
51. MDFirefighter
1:34 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
Accuweather forecast for me:

Wednesday Night, Jan 2
Low: 14 °F RealFeel®: -13 °F
Windy and frigid with snow

Thursday, Jan 3
High: 32 °F RealFeel®: 13 °F
Very windy; cold with snow much of the time

BRING IT ON!!!!! lol
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
50. eaglesrock
1:33 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
Most GFS ensembles have a snowstorm for the East Coast.

49. eaglesrock
1:30 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
Here's the Accuweather forecast for me:

Thursday, Jan 3
High: 25 °F RealFeel®: 1 °F
Very windy; colder with snow

Looks like that AccuModel that Accuweather uses is showing the same thing.
48. MDFirefighter
1:27 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
I hope not lol. The 3rd & 4th could be very interesting. I'm keeping my mouth shut for now so I don't jinx myself LOL
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
47. eaglesrock
1:25 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
Does this meteogram for Baltimore/DC lie?

46. MDFirefighter
1:21 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
But I will tell you that the 240-264 hour GFS on the 0z run has a nice surprise.

That's a very nice surprise lol
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
45. MDFirefighter
1:15 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
As long as it's cold enough in the Baltimore area, I'm happy lol (sorry southern guys)
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
44. eaglesrock
1:11 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
Also notice that the ECMWF agrees with the GFS somewhat. It's just not as cold in the southern cities.

43. eaglesrock
1:07 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
Hey everyone, look at the new GFS. The origin tells you it will be a big storm.



Snow for NOLA, Birmingham, Galveston, and Atlanta. I won't post the rest. That's for you to go look at. But I will tell you that the 240-264 hour GFS on the 0z run has a nice surprise.

And the 1052 mb high in the West would bring the worst Santa Ana ever in recorded history.
42. MDFirefighter
11:07 AM GMT on December 24, 2007
you guys are getting me excited for the first week of 2008 lol.

Merry Christmas everyone!
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
41. sullivanweather
7:23 AM GMT on December 24, 2007
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
40. WeatherBobNut
3:59 AM GMT on December 24, 2007
HEY Dean! Yes, the gfs will play many games in terms of placement and strenth ect...i would favor a storm along the east coast the first week of January due to just the fact of a minus two values on the NAO that week! Interesting! We'll wait and see, but in the meantime, have a MerryChristmas and Happy New Year!
39. dean2007
3:07 AM GMT on December 24, 2007
That track does not favor a coastal snowstorm, so I personally would not root for that scenario since I live on the coast. I personally would like a track further east by about 100 or more miles. I have seen the GFS switch from far east where the coastline would see a big snowstorm, to the final result where it ended up 150 to 200 miles further west, I seriously hope its the other way around for this possible storm.
38. charlesimages
2:53 AM GMT on December 24, 2007
Can't wait until January! The warm up would be cool too, then storms again!

This Spring will be very wild for sure, the setup is too good... looking forward to tracking it all!

Merry Christmas to you and yours too!!
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
37. WeatherBobNut
2:43 AM GMT on December 24, 2007
Hi Charles! Yes, i like the NAM also, it has been accurate as well. I do agree with you about January, it looks to be shaping up to be a wild one, at least the first 10 days, then we may see a warm-up for a brief time, then back to stormy. We could see a big coastal the first week of the new year, i just have that gut feeling and i'm 45 years old and in years past when i has this same gut feeling, i was almost always right and we did get a huge snowstorm. I think with the la nina, there will be some wild clahses of air masses that create HUGE storms....Have a Merry Christmas to you and yours!

-Weather Bob <
36. charlesimages
2:34 AM GMT on December 24, 2007
Hi Bob!
GFS was pretty accurate with this current system. The NAM hasn't been too shabby either.

Watch out in January, I think we see one big one, if not a second.. and also March.

Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
35. WeatherBobNut
2:31 AM GMT on December 24, 2007
Hi Guys, i just looked at the 18z runs and yes, it is 240 hours out, but the GFS has been pretty accurate this far out so far this season so indeed it will be something to watch and if it does the dissapearing act, don't dispair, it'll come back and do the usual cha cha dance of placement and strenth.

Current conditions in Old Forge, Pa
Temp 46
Winds SW at 8mph
Pressure 29.73
Humidity 82%
Dewpoint 41
Last Updated At 8:59pm Dec 23rd 2007
34. MDFirefighter
1:55 AM GMT on December 24, 2007
great update again Blizzard. That January 2nd storm looks impressive. Hope it happens!
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
32. charlesimages
1:22 AM GMT on December 24, 2007
True, Huron & Erie have a long enough fetch. Wow 1" in 30mins? That's some heavy LES! I can see why you'd want more though, seeing as how up here around the lakes we get a whole bunch, and if it "almost" stretches down to you just so many times I would go nuts! Like I did when all the thunderstorms kept missing me this past summer!!
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31. Zachary Labe
1:17 AM GMT on December 24, 2007
We also see some lake effect snow too. In the beginning of December a Huron-Erie lake effect streamer came all the way down to south central PA dropping about 1inch in 30minutes at my home. About 1-3inches of lake effect snow falls each year here. When western PA sees heavy lake effect snow we just get flurries all day.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
30. charlesimages
1:14 AM GMT on December 24, 2007
You do? Did you watch my videos ? LOL

It can be great, we don't get near the snow that Buffalo gets, or the UP of Michigan.. but we can squeeze out a 22-30" dumping if conditions are favorable!

You do get ocean enhanced snowfall sometimes though. Just not the same.. wish I could send some of this your way! It can be a lot of fun, especially if you don't have to drive in it!
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
29. Zachary Labe
1:09 AM GMT on December 24, 2007
I sure wish southcentral Pennsylvania saw lake effect snow like you guys get in west Michigan.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
28. charlesimages
1:07 AM GMT on December 24, 2007
Hmm missed the worst aye?? I kind of thought you would, but had hope for ya LOL

Yeah I have seen that run, also have been lurking on blogs and noted your posts containing it! Also see it here in your blog. Looks like ya'll could have a nasty one on your hands..

This winter is delivering some powerful storm systems! Typical with a La Nina winter though..
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
27. Zachary Labe
1:04 AM GMT on December 24, 2007
No not really. A town about 15miles to my south had some trees and power lines down. Have you seen the 18z gfs model run for the 2 of January? It has a major coastal storm with pressure near 977mb.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
26. charlesimages
12:51 AM GMT on December 24, 2007
Did you get any good weather B92???
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
25. Zachary Labe
9:10 PM GMT on December 23, 2007
Yea it does look that way, but here in south central Pennsylvania it is near 60degrees and very humid. I have a feeling once the showers hit this airmass the will strengthen right over my area.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
24. charlesimages
9:08 PM GMT on December 23, 2007
Just animated your radar, looks like the worst will hit around Willamsport, PA
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23. charlesimages
9:06 PM GMT on December 23, 2007
oh man better tie down all the loose lawn furniture and anything else that might blow away

Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
22. Zachary Labe
9:04 PM GMT on December 23, 2007
They are redeveloping as we speak. Wind gusts to 50plus mph are being reported with the squall at the moment. A high wind warning has now been issued for my area.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
21. charlesimages
9:01 PM GMT on December 23, 2007
Looks like a decent line of weather coming in, just like we had this early am, our storms traveled at about 60mph.. how are they doing out east??
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
20. Zachary Labe
7:42 PM GMT on December 23, 2007
Southwest winds are starting to pick up here north of Harrisburg
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19. Zachary Labe
6:47 PM GMT on December 23, 2007
As of 1:45pm I noticed the radar out of Pittsburgh detecting a developing squall line near Latrobe, PA.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
18. Zachary Labe
3:21 PM GMT on December 23, 2007
Can you detect the squall line on the radar before it comes? Because right now I looked at area radars and I do not see any squall lines.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
17. wfreeck
3:14 PM GMT on December 23, 2007
Get prepared, I can tell you right now the squall line that produced the damaging will be the craziest you have ever seen. Widespread damage in SW Michigan this morning and STW going up everywhere. It's basicallly at the end of all of this rain crap on the radars.
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16. Zachary Labe
2:30 AM GMT on December 23, 2007
The 18z gfs has a coastal storm right after the 31st storm. Anyone have any thoughts on this?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
15. Zachary Labe
9:43 PM GMT on December 22, 2007
I typed in NAO on google and found that the noaa climate prediction center had an area for NAO forecasts.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
14. edhanna
6:33 PM GMT on December 22, 2007
Blizzard, can you give me your link to the NAO, thanks. By the way, hopefully the 12z is an outlier and it will switch back to the coastal storm.
13. Zachary Labe
5:36 PM GMT on December 22, 2007
Today it is cloudy and 37degrees here in Harrisburg PA
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
12. Zachary Labe
2:54 AM GMT on December 22, 2007
As of 1000pm it is still lightly snowing here north of Harrisburg. No accum. Temp. falling.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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