The Northeast Weather Blog...

92 - GFS is totally unreliable for northeast weather forecasting.
GFS has been totally wrong for every event this winter.

Nice blog blizzard, like the forecasts, although it seems like Bradford is always getting more and more snow!

Very nice Blizzard.

Good job Blizzard. I like how you aren't going overboard with the forecasts and predictions as well for right now, because just yesterday that same low was a High to the GFS.

I pointed out this as well Blizzard92. The models had the storm out from 240 hours but dropped it soon afterwards. Then they have regained it again. The GFS did this with the storm this past weekend. Well we know a very stormy pattern is in place and we will have ample opportunities this winter for snowstorms, its just when does this happen. Also for an East Coast Snowstorm to blow up off the coast, the NAO would have to go negative which is the case most of the time for a substantial snowstorm, however this is possible. However it goes into the -1 values again around New Year's Day so we will have to watch for an East Coast storm around here as well.

**Update as of 830
Well I checked the 18z gfs and it continues to show a storm developed off the delmarva throwing snow back into Pennyslvania. This will be interesting to see if this really happens. For now until there is more confidence this Christmas looks to be cloudy with lake effect snow showers. Could change though??? Last major white christmas across the state was in 2002. It would be nice to have snow on Christmas. Also just to throw in there... About a week ago the models were predicting this storm on Christmas. Then is disappeared. Now it has reapeared. Hmm????

It sure would be nice Blizzard.

I pointed out this as well Blizzard92. The models had the storm out from 240 hours but dropped it soon afterwards. Then they have regained it again. The GFS did this with the storm this past weekend. Well we know a very stormy pattern is in place and we will have ample opportunities this winter for snowstorms, its just when does this happen. Also for an East Coast Snowstorm to blow up off the coast, the NAO would have to go negative which is the case most of the time for a substantial snowstorm, however this is possible. However it goes into the -1 values again around New Year's Day so we will have to watch for an East Coast storm around here as well.

The first week of the New Year looks awwwwwfully interesting :D

another great update. that January 5th model looks niiiiice :D hopefully the 32 degree line will drop a little further south to give me some more confidence. i've been saying all along that the 1st week of the New Year looks very interesting. hopefully it pans out

As accurate as the EURO model has been, I wouldn't be surprised Blizzard.

No chance for a coastal storm on Christmas Day, I would give any odds a .1% as in yes coastal storm to a 99.9% no coastal storm. The NAO goes negative around the 1st of the New Year. That's when we will look for a coastal storm, but not until then. Enjoy any warm weather we have coming. We will get rain the next three to four storms.

Blizzard, can you give me your link to the NAO, thanks. By the way, hopefully the 12z is an outlier and it will switch back to the coastal storm.

Get prepared, I can tell you right now the squall line that produced the damaging will be the craziest you have ever seen. Widespread damage in SW Michigan this morning and STW going up everywhere. It's basicallly at the end of all of this rain crap on the radars.

Looks like a decent line of weather coming in, just like we had this early am, our storms traveled at about 60mph.. how are they doing out east??

oh man better tie down all the loose lawn furniture and anything else that might blow away

Just animated your radar, looks like the worst will hit around Willamsport, PA

Did you get any good weather B92???

Hmm missed the worst aye?? I kind of thought you would, but had hope for ya LOL

Yeah I have seen that run, also have been lurking on blogs and noted your posts containing it! Also see it here in your blog. Looks like ya'll could have a nasty one on your hands..

This winter is delivering some powerful storm systems! Typical with a La Nina winter though..

You do? Did you watch my videos ? LOL

It can be great, we don't get near the snow that Buffalo gets, or the UP of Michigan.. but we can squeeze out a 22-30" dumping if conditions are favorable!

You do get ocean enhanced snowfall sometimes though. Just not the same.. wish I could send some of this your way! It can be a lot of fun, especially if you don't have to drive in it!

True, Huron & Erie have a long enough fetch. Wow 1" in 30mins? That's some heavy LES! I can see why you'd want more though, seeing as how up here around the lakes we get a whole bunch, and if it "almost" stretches down to you just so many times I would go nuts! Like I did when all the thunderstorms kept missing me this past summer!!

great update again Blizzard. That January 2nd storm looks impressive. Hope it happens!

Hi Guys, i just looked at the 18z runs and yes, it is 240 hours out, but the GFS has been pretty accurate this far out so far this season so indeed it will be something to watch and if it does the dissapearing act, don't dispair, it'll come back and do the usual cha cha dance of placement and strenth.

Current conditions in Old Forge, Pa
Temp 46
Winds SW at 8mph
Pressure 29.73
Humidity 82%
Dewpoint 41
Last Updated At 8:59pm Dec 23rd 2007

Hi Bob!
GFS was pretty accurate with this current system. The NAM hasn't been too shabby either.

Watch out in January, I think we see one big one, if not a second.. and also March.

Hi Charles! Yes, i like the NAM also, it has been accurate as well. I do agree with you about January, it looks to be shaping up to be a wild one, at least the first 10 days, then we may see a warm-up for a brief time, then back to stormy. We could see a big coastal the first week of the new year, i just have that gut feeling and i'm 45 years old and in years past when i has this same gut feeling, i was almost always right and we did get a huge snowstorm. I think with the la nina, there will be some wild clahses of air masses that create HUGE storms....Have a Merry Christmas to you and yours!

-Weather Bob <

Can't wait until January! The warm up would be cool too, then storms again!

This Spring will be very wild for sure, the setup is too good... looking forward to tracking it all!

Merry Christmas to you and yours too!!

That track does not favor a coastal snowstorm, so I personally would not root for that scenario since I live on the coast. I personally would like a track further east by about 100 or more miles. I have seen the GFS switch from far east where the coastline would see a big snowstorm, to the final result where it ended up 150 to 200 miles further west, I seriously hope its the other way around for this possible storm.

HEY Dean! Yes, the gfs will play many games in terms of placement and strenth ect...i would favor a storm along the east coast the first week of January due to just the fact of a minus two values on the NAO that week! Interesting! We'll wait and see, but in the meantime, have a MerryChristmas and Happy New Year!

you guys are getting me excited for the first week of 2008 lol.

Merry Christmas everyone!

Hey everyone, look at the new GFS. The origin tells you it will be a big storm.



Snow for NOLA, Birmingham, Galveston, and Atlanta. I won't post the rest. That's for you to go look at. But I will tell you that the 240-264 hour GFS on the 0z run has a nice surprise.

And the 1052 mb high in the West would bring the worst Santa Ana ever in recorded history.

Also notice that the ECMWF agrees with the GFS somewhat. It's just not as cold in the southern cities.

As long as it's cold enough in the Baltimore area, I'm happy lol (sorry southern guys)

But I will tell you that the 240-264 hour GFS on the 0z run has a nice surprise.

That's a very nice surprise lol

Does this meteogram for Baltimore/DC lie?

I hope not lol. The 3rd & 4th could be very interesting. I'm keeping my mouth shut for now so I don't jinx myself LOL

Here's the Accuweather forecast for me:

Thursday, Jan 3
High: 25 °F RealFeel®: 1 °F
Very windy; colder with snow

Looks like that AccuModel that Accuweather uses is showing the same thing.

Most GFS ensembles have a snowstorm for the East Coast.

Accuweather forecast for me:

Wednesday Night, Jan 2
Low: 14 °F RealFeel®: -13 °F
Windy and frigid with snow

Thursday, Jan 3
High: 32 °F RealFeel®: 13 °F
Very windy; cold with snow much of the time

BRING IT ON!!!!! lol