The Northeast Weather Blog...

Around a dozen schools are already closed for tomorrow around here (mainly to the east). I don't anticipate having any issues tomorrow because only around 100 people are out in our district. Schools in central & southern Dauphin county are in much worse shape with around 2-4k without power in their districts.

I feel like it's the middle of winter looking for school closings not the first day of school in August.

Statement just released by PPL:

"With high winds and significant rain, Hurricane Irene has caused storm-related power outages and extensive damage throughout central and eastern Pennsylvania. Based on the number of customers reporting interruptions, Hurricane Irene ranks as the second worst storm to hit our service area in the company's history."

Good morning, everyone! I'm happy to be back online. Power out for a long time; half a foot of water in the basement. But no trees fell, which was my main concern. There were a couple of tornados near here; that was interesting hearing the warnings and reports on a radio in the dark. Now I'm wanting sun for Labor Day weekend . . .

Wow! Bradford got down to 38F this morning. Fall is just around the corner.

I don't get how this is news. The transmitter goes out every time there's a thunderstorm over Harrisburg let alone a hurricane.

Link

Also I stopped receiving warnings at about 4am, not the 10am they state in the article.

49 degrees in cashtown this morning. very nice

48F here for the 2nd morning in a row.

Thanks for the pictures and videos, P! And the list of how the fatalities occurred; sad though it is. Good to know so we can avoid dangerous situations.

Does anyone have thoughts on weather for this weekend? We're going camping, and I'm seeing the potential for rain every day. *sigh* On the other hand, I'm loving the cool!!!

Hello. Hey Blizz - I was reading a tweet from you last week, Aug. 24th. Very interesting. hahahaha

Did anyone see the pictures of the outer banks and the S-curves in Rodanthe? That area is prone to flooding even when it's not a storm, but WOW. I wonder what the people south of Rodanthe are going to do for supplies and the like?

Hi everyone, just got my power back!Went off Sunday 5:30AM A Large tree branch fell across wires about 5 houses up the street from me. I got 3.80" of rain in my rain guage. Winds were not "horrible", mostly 35-45mph, with some stronger gusts near 60. My Baro. got down to 28.69". I could tell when the center went by, it was to my West, as the pressure started to go up, my winds wre coming out of the SSW, basically over P451's area.Felt really"in the dark" not having power thus no internet or TV. Just had an old transitor battery radio to hear what the outside world was doing. Good to be back! LT

Quoting Blizzard92:

Yep, still some people all around the Northeast without power. I guess I heard CT suffered its most widespread power outage weather related ever from Irene.

I hear 700,000 customers lost power in CT. My family told me that we just got power back as well. I moved back into school yesterday, late, because of Irene. Blizz what are your first impressions of school?

Welp

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
454 AM MDT WED AUG 31 2011

MTZ002-312100-
/O.CON.KMSO.WW.Y.0055.110901T0600Z-110901T1800Z/
WEST GLACIER REGION-
454 AM MDT WED AUG 31 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON MDT THURSDAY FOR EARLY SEASON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON LOGAN PASS AND TRAILS IN GLACIER NATIONAL PARK ABOVE 6500 FEET...

Slow recovery here in Milford. Lots of folks still without power and many don't expect it back for 2-5 more days. Lots of large trees and limbs down.. a lot more than from the 12/26 blizzard. Some of the videos my friend posted from Woodmont beach were ridiculous.

I was down in Silver Spring, MD to visit family (and miss some rained out Yankee games) and things were pretty tame down there. 40mph gusts.. Pepco still managed to shit the bed for about 12 hours in her neighborhood, though.

We got pretty lucky with this one. I did have to laugh a little bit at a friend who called the storm a 'dud' a few hours before a 60 foot tree fell in his back yard, narrowly missing the house.

Recovering slowly in NJ, Patterson and Denville under water. We were extremely lucky here at Jersey Shore. Most power being restored, some three days without, I was lucky and leant our genny out, they still complained. The weather has been delightful, no humidity, mid eighties. Tomorrow all changes, humidity moving in tonight.

Keeping an eye out for Katia and Lee, hoping they don't meet up. Stay Well.

The 0z models for 93L/Lee are probably the most worthless I've ever seen in a few years of looking at models for tropical systems. Just about every model has the system going slow and making a loop at some point (then going completely different directions). They're going to have to go "old-school" with this forecast.

What a mess...not what we need after many were criticizing Irene's forecast which was actually good.

Quoting Blizzard92:

Going okay so far... meteorology and associated lab are so much fun! Calc is pretty hard though, ugh.

Just curious...why do you find Calc hard? didn't you take it in HS? Believe me I know Calc is not an easy math to grasp at first. Just like Physics is a totally different way of looking at things.

My favorite part of Physics was doing the math. Once I got through DiffEQ, I enjoyed Physics. The problem with Physics for me was coming up with the starting formula in a problem. The rest was cake.

Amazing weather we have been having the past 2 weeks, except for Irene. It's like mid-September mode

Quoting Blizzard92:

I had a high A all though Calculus in high school my junior year. Then I took Statistics senior year and did well. Statistics is a completely different type of math, so it is taking me some time remember simple algebra things. It just seems our Calculus here is all about how to derive each theorem, but no examples on how to apply them to problems. It just is much different than my Calc in high school and so far I am struggling.

I'm taking Calc & Stats both right now and already in the first 3 days I can see they are significantly different courses. It's interesting how you could take calc your junior year because I was always in the highest math classes and took algebra 1 in middle school and still could only take calc senior year.

Our math was set up something like this...(assuming the person scored high enough on the Iowa Algebra Aptitude Test)
8th- Algebra 1
9th- Geometry
10th- Algebra 2
11th- Trig
12th- Stats and/or AP Calc

Did you double up in any of those classes or did Central Dauphin just eliminate one of them completely/combine it with another?

Quoting wunderstorm87:

I'm taking Calc & Stats both right now and already in the first 3 days I can see they are significantly different courses. It's interesting how you could take calc your junior year because I was always in the highest math classes and took algebra 1 in middle school and still could only take calc senior year.

Our math was set up something like this...(assuming the person scored high enough on the Iowa Algebra Aptitude Test)
8th- Algebra 1
9th- Geometry
10th- Algebra 2
11th- Trig
12th- Stats and/or AP Calc

Did you double up in any of those classes or did Central Dauphin just eliminate one of them completely/combine it with another?

That set up looks exactly like what I had except I took Calc and stats at the same time. Had to re-take Calc 1 last year and then took Calc 2 for the first time, which was the hardest math i've ever taken. Lots of silly formulas for different way to sum complicated series/sequences (seemed useless to me). Blizz, I agree with your finding of how the course seems to care more about where the formula came from then where it's actually useful (it all seemed backwards).

TRP I'm taking DiffEq, what did you think of it?

If you all had gone the English Lit/Philosophy route, you could have avoided math altogether. Unfortunately, though, that worthless combination of degrees requires an advanced degree before you can secure employment. Which requires more loans. Which complicates repayment with all kinds of "we just added accruing interest to your total balance while you were in school" and "you can repay your loans individually at a 99.9% interest rate or you can consolidate your repayment at a much lower 99.89% interest rate" mumbo jumbo. Which then requires math. I guess sticking with math isn't such a bad idea.

On a related(?) note, what's with the tropics in the Gulf? First they say Texas will finally get rain. Then models drench New Orleans. Now everything is east through FL/GA and up the eastern seaboard with more drenching rain? When will we see snow?

Quoting TheF1Man:


That set up looks exactly like what I had except I took Calc and stats at the same time. Had to re-take Calc 1 last year and then took Calc 2 for the first time, which was the hardest math i've ever taken. Lots of silly formulas for different way to sum complicated series/sequences (seemed useless to me). Blizz, I agree with your finding of how the course seems to care more about where the formula came from then where it's actually useful (it all seemed backwards).

TRP I'm taking DiffEq, what did you think of it?

I loved DiffEQ. It seemed after the struggles of Calc I,II & III...DiffEQ was so easy to grasp. It's like the bring you along slowly with the Calc's that lead up to DiffEQ. Then it all falls in place. That is what I remember. It's been a long time since I was in college. Back in the early to mid 80's.

When you start to apply calculus in your problem solving it will click eventually. It's truly amazing that through Calculus we get a better understanding of Physics. I couldn't imagine being around people like Newton and their thoughts. Just truly brilliant people back then that came up with theories on Physics and Calculus.

Quoting P451:


QPF is under 0.50" region wide 5 days combined.

Thanks, P! Shouldn't be too bad, then. Sunday looks like the best possibility for extended rain, and we can always come home a little early if sleeping becomes impossible.

Quoting wxgeek723:
Welp

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
454 AM MDT WED AUG 31 2011

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON MDT THURSDAY FOR EARLY SEASON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON LOGAN PASS AND TRAILS IN GLACIER NATIONAL PARK ABOVE 6500 FEET...

Cool! Gotta love it when winter begins in August! :)

Man that storm line sure fizzled out

hpc has a bullseye of over 24" of qpf on their 5 day precip forecast. that is just crazy.

Quoting Mason803:
hpc has a bullseye of over 24" of qpf on their 5 day precip forecast. that is just crazy.

That's just incredible for the New Orleans area. It's probably not the most certain forecast given the track and development uncertainty for 93L, however. Regardless of development/track, at least 10" will probably occur somewhere given the copious amount of tropical moisture already heading northward over the area.

Places in the northeast need to watch this system and not just Katia. Another tropical system in an already saturated area would be very serious regardless of the wind speed (what the media tends to focus on or hype up).

Well this was out of nowhere...more thunderstorms popping up and drifting toward my area:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
913 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CAMERON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 1015 PM EDT

* AT 910 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE STORM
CONTAINING THE POSSIBLE TORNADO WAS NEAR CAMERON...MOVING SOUTH AT
20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
DRIFTWOOD...
SINNEMAHONING...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY.

THIS WILL IMPACT STATE ROAD 120.

Wow...just looked at Doppler velocities and the GTG shear is very strong with this (70 to 100kts). This is not a borderline TVS. Rarely do you see rotation that strong not produce at least a funnel cloud. It's going to be tough to spot at night now.

Update: GTG Shear and the associated hook echo is now weakening.

Quoting TheRasberryPatch:


I loved DiffEQ. It seemed after the struggles of Calc I,II & III...DiffEQ was so easy to grasp. It's like the bring you along slowly with the Calc's that lead up to DiffEQ. Then it all falls in place. That is what I remember. It's been a long time since I was in college. Back in the early to mid 80's.

When you start to apply calculus in your problem solving it will click eventually. It's truly amazing that through Calculus we get a better understanding of Physics. I couldn't imagine being around people like Newton and their thoughts. Just truly brilliant people back then that came up with theories on Physics and Calculus.

I hope it will click eventually because after 2 days I can hardly keep up with the professor's very quick writing skills. I had a good grasp on Calculus 1, but not so much with Calc II. I've also felt amazed at how smart those guys mast have been, especially for their time.

The current forecast "cone" on TWC's homepage is the largest i have ever seen. It's actually a sphere and pathetic for them to even put it up. I could have made that myself.

I'm in Calc I this semester...

Can you imagine if Katia and TD 13 came through our area? Would probably be over 4" from TD 13 and who knows from Katia. Projections for Katia have recently taken a bad turn towards the west rather than towards the north.

AUGUST 2011 NORTHEAST CLIMATE STATISTICS

Using the new 1981 – 2010 climate normal period

MAINE
Frenchville: +0.7F / +2.75”
Caribou: +1.5F / +5.82”
Houlton: +0.8F / +1.85”
Millinocket: +1.4F / +3.46”
Bangor: +0.2F / +5.35”
Gray: -0.2F / +4.60”
Portland: 0.0 / +2.06”

NEW HAMPSHIRE
Concord: +0.6F / +4.34”

VERMONT
Morrisville: +1.6F / +2.22”
Burlington: +1.6F / +2.20”
St Johnsbury: -0.9F / +4.64”
Montpelier: +1.0F / +5.95”
Springfield: +2.0F / +6.39”
Bennington: +1.2F / +5.00”

MASSACHUSETTS
Pittsfield: +0.6F / +6.47”
Boston: +1.8F / +4.39”
Worcester: +0.7F / +8.50”

CONNECTICUT
Hartford: +0.2” / +7.74”
Bridgeport: +1.5F / +5.61”

RHODE ISLAND
Providence: +0.9F / 4.42”

NEW YORK
Massena: +1.9F / 0.77”
Plattsburgh: +0.5F / NA”
Saranac Lake: +1.2F / +2.42”
Watertown: +1.6F / +3.25”
Glens Falls: +1.2F / +5.35”
Rochester: +3.9F / -1.12”
Syracuse: +2.1F / +3.09”
Buffalo: +1.7F / +0.68”
Albany: +0.7F / +6.95”
Binghamton: 0.0F / +5.45”
Poughkeepsie: +0.6F / +9.03”
Islip: +1.4F / +7.60”
New York (CP): +0.1F / +14.51”
N. Queens (LAG): -0.3” / +13.20”
S. Queens (JFK): +0.6” / +13.56”

PENNSYLVANIA
Erie: +1.0F / +1.81”
Scranton: 0.0F / +4.62”
Williamsport: +0.4F / +1.73”
Mount Pocono: 0.0F / +8.30”
Allentown: +0.5F / +9.78”
Pittsburgh: +1.3F / -0.79”
Reading: +1.0F / +3.26”
Harrisburg: +0.1F / +5.45”
Philadelphia: -0.5F / +15.81”

NEW JERSEY
Newark: +1.1F / +15.09”
Trenton: +1.5F / +12.00”
Atlantic City: +1.1F / +7.00”

DELAWARE
Wilmington: -0.2F / +11.45”
Georgetown: +0.9F / +0.42”

MARYLAND
Hagerstown: +1.2F / +2.73”
Baltimore Harbor: +1.5F / +8.58”
Baltimore: +0.8F / +7.09”
Salisbury: +1.9F / +7.36”

WEST VIRGINIA
Morgantown: +0.4F / +1.40”
Martinsburg: +2.4F / +1.51”
Parkersburg: 0.0F / +0.42”
Elkins: +1.1F / +0.30”
Huntington: -0.3F / +0.84”
Charleston: +1.1F / -0.49”
Beckley: +2.3F / -1.72”
Bluefield: +1.1F / -0.92”

VIRGINIA
Dulles: +0.9F / +0.21”
Arlington (DC): +1.8F / +5.99”
Charlottesville: +3.0F / 0.00”
Wallops Island: +2.3F / +4.19”
Richmond: +1.5F / +2.44”
Norfolk: +2.1F / +5.27”
Lynchburg: +2.0F / -1.20”
Roanoke: +2.4F / -2.11”
Blacksburg: +2.6F / -2.34”
Danville: +0.8F / -2.50”


MONTHLY / METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER RECORDS

(There are definitely more rainfall records than these. Not all offices have released that information.)

Mount Pocono PA: All-time record warm summer: 68.0F
New York (CP) NY: All-time record monthly precipitation: 18.95”
N. Queens (LAG) NY: All-time record monthly precipitation: 17.32”
S. Queens (JFK) NY: All-time record monthly precipitation: 17.24”
Newark NJ: All-time record monthly precipitation: 18.79”
Allentown PA: All-time record monthly precipitation: 13.47”
Allentown PA: All-time record summer precipitation: 22.17”
Trenton NJ: 2nd warmest summer on record: 76.6F (77.7F, 2010)
Trenton NJ: All-time record monthly precipitation: 16.10”
Philadelphia PA: All-time record monthly precipitation: 19.31”
Philadelphia PA: All-time record summer precipitation: 24.58”
Atlantic City NJ: 2nd warmest summer on record: 77.0F (77.5F, 2010)