Hurricane Irene...

By: Zachary Labe , 11:48 PM GMT on August 25, 2011

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"Current Temperature"


"Current Dewpoint"


"Current Surface Map and Weekly History of Jet Stream Position"


"Regional Radar"


"Regional Satellite"


"Regional Advisories"


"Soil Moisture Anomalies and 5-day Precipitation Amounts from Hydro Prediction Center"


"Severe Weather Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"


"12hr Estimated Precipitation"


"Forecast Max Temperatures"


"Forecast Min Temperature"


"Forecast Weather at 2pm"


"Current Storm Reports"


"Fire Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"

(All maps courtesy of NOAA and Penn State Meteo.)

"Forecast Model Links"
-NAM model 12z...Link
-GFS model 12z...Link
-NMM model 12z...Link
-SREF model 9z...Link

"Severe Weather Links"
-Atmospheric Soundings Skewt T charts...Link
-SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pages...Link
-Public Spotter Reports for State College NWS...Link
-Severe Weather Model Forecast indices...Link
-Severe Weather Parameter Definitions...Link

"Flooding Links"
-Automated Pennsylvania Rainfall Recording Stations...Link
-Flash Flooding Guidance...Link
-HPC Forecasts for Excessive Rainfall...Link
-Hydrology Predictions for Lakes, Rivers, and Streams...Link

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

Follow my 24hr forecasts on Twitter... Link and Facebook... Link.

My Hurricane Irene forecast track and associated wind...

*It was the first time for me using this mac paint software so still getting used to it.

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Quoting PhillySnow:
Hi all, and thanks Blizz and P for your thoughtful forecasts and advice.

I just left a conference in Minnesota early to beat the storm. So did everyone else! Lots of excitement in the airports. This would be as much fun as a snowstorm, except that these storms are so damaging and dangerous. I hope it's not too bad; I keep thinking of pittsburgnurse reminding us of what the hospitals are like during major weather events.....

I cannot imagine how terrible mass transportation is across the I-95 region including airlines. What a mess!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Hi all, and thanks Blizz and P for your thoughtful forecasts and advice.

I just left a conference in Minnesota early to beat the storm. So did everyone else! Lots of excitement in the airports. This would be as much fun as a snowstorm, except that these storms are so damaging and dangerous. I hope it's not too bad; I keep thinking of pittsburgnurse reminding us of what the hospitals are like during major weather events.....
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1236
Quoting weathergeek5:
You know what these clouds from Irene are moving fast. Around 11:30 this morning I saw the first clouds from the outflow and the were speeding along.

Tropical systems always seem to have many layers of clouds moving so fast and sometimes what appears is in directions.

Quoting shipweather:
I see Harrisburg sits right on your T.S. winds line. Interesting....

As the storm passes by the winds will switch around to the northwest with gusts near tropical storm force. Sustained winds will only be near 20-30mph though for KMDT.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
I see Harrisburg sits right on your T.S. winds line. Interesting....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
You know what these clouds from Irene are moving fast. Around 11:30 this morning I saw the first clouds from the outflow and the were speeding along.
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Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
so Irene stays just off the coast at the Delmarva? That would be a good scenario

Yep, I like my track and strength map. The Delmarva will be on the western side of the storm hopefully helping their case.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
so Irene stays just off the coast at the Delmarva? That would be a good scenario
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
Trying a new software on my new mac for making maps. Give me a break, lol...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
I see rain has already made it into Delaware.

I guess the front washing out was a bad situation. Instead of pushing the storm out to sea it decided to give way to Irene

I don't recall a storm like this where you see windy conditions for 24 hours. 24 hours is a long time to endure for a hurricane or TS
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
12z ECMWF has over 4in of rain for KMDT!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
I'll be watching this event from MDT (Harrisburg International Airport) and Front Street in Harrisburg with a river view 10 floors up. Should be interesting.
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Quoting originalLT:
Blizz, sounds like you have a "full plate" on your hands, but I know you'll come thru it with"flying colors". Also, a PRE does that mean a "pre-event" a for or in front of a major system?

PRE stands for predecessor rain event, but it definitely can be throught of as a pre event. They occur ahead of tropical storm systems.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
ill be tracking the storm here in adams county. no doubt there will be surprises with this event that were not forecasted. i'm leaning toward some outer rain band that forms to west of the system that sits and pivots and gives someone a surprise heavy rain. maybe out my way.
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
Blizz, sounds like you have a "full plate" on your hands, but I know you'll come thru it with"flying colors". Also, a PRE does that mean a "pre-event" a for or in front of a major system?
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7606
Quoting SilverShipsofAndilar:


The front coming through on Sunday morning/afternoon?

The front that crossed through yesterday is now washed out over the region as a stationary boundary.



*For more information for anyone, this is a past blog of mine on a previous PRE case... Link
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Quoting Blizzard92:

Yep, this is the third day of classes. I am taking this semester...

-Calculus I (took in high school junior year, but I want to take again to solidify my math foundation)
-Basic Principles of Meteorology
-Meteorology Lab Intro
-Intro to Astronomy
-Writing Seminar on Sustainable Energy Systems


Have you talked to your department head about possibly maintaining the blog more regularly for school credit?
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
Quoting Blizzard92:
I am monitoring the formation of a possible PRE. Given the stalled front and advancing tropical system, the position of the jet streak may favor a predecessor rain event across central and eastern areas ahead of Hurricane Irene adding to the already expected heavy rain amounts.


The front coming through on Sunday morning/afternoon?
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
I am monitoring the formation of a possible PRE. Given the stalled front and advancing tropical system, the position of the jet streak may favor a predecessor rain event across central and eastern areas ahead of Hurricane Irene adding to the already expected heavy rain amounts.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Quoting originalLT:
Afternoon Blizz, any classes yet?

Yep, this is the third day of classes. I am taking this semester...

-Calculus I (took in high school junior year, but I want to take again to solidify my math foundation)
-Basic Principles of Meteorology
-Meteorology Lab Intro
-Intro to Astronomy
-Writing Seminar on Sustainable Energy Systems
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Afternoon Blizz, any classes yet?
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7606
Afternoon all!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
We've already gone over some emergency procedures for equipment at MDT, now we wait for our airline to announce plans tomorrow.
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Any thoughts regarding landslides?  It may sound alarmist, but in San Fratello, Sicily, where my father's family is from, "frana" is a very scary word. As recently as Valentine's Day 2010,  they had severe damage.  However, unlike 1929, people were better prepared for the effects of water-logged soil and most people had evacuated.

 I'm in Upper Makefield Township near Newtown PA, and we've had a lot of rain, including another about .5" yesterday.  We still have telephone poles leaning from previous storms.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I hope I am ready in Burke VA. I expect it to be like Isabel here with power outages being the primary problem. We lost the power for three days during Isabel, and had no water for two days. I am ready for that. My son and I are planning to build a solar oven to see if we can make that work. Got my ice, long life shelf milk, water, non-perishable food, gas in the car, charged the phones, did the laundry, sealed the basement door where the water comes in when it rains hard, cash on hand, lawn furniture put away and made the kids pick up all of the sticks in the yard. Did I forget anything?

I figure it's best to be prepared and have nothing much happen than to not prepare at all and be in trouble. Besides, pop tarts don't go bad.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Besides the wind, watch out for the surge. All the water is being pushed northward. Anyone along the coast should be prepared. I saw a graphic that as the water is pushed northward it will start to build up when it gets to NYC and LI. There is no place for it to go. That could be devastating. My greatest concern along the coast is definitely the surge.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
Quoting P451:


. . . and Long Island to look like that barrier island Ike wiped clean.



Yeah, Ike was a different breed. Low wind speeds, but it was huge. Storm surge of 20 feet. My family had a house down there before Ike - now we have a cement slab and some weeds. It was one of the few storms that was not over-hyped. When the NWS said "Evacuate or face certain death," they meant it.
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
P451,really good advice,I've been warning people myself up here in eastern Mass.,but the stories of it weakening and not being too bad have made people settle back and not doing to much.I'm about 12 miles west of Boston,and Gloria got us good,I expect the same from Irene.Lots of tree damage and long power outages,but I think a lot of people are going to be caught by surprise.
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Quoting P451:
Now why they expect catastrophic damage from a system that will be similar in strength and path when it comes up here I do not know.

I guess that remains to be seen.





Everyone is worried about soil that is already saturated, I think. At least, that seems to be the consensus. I'm with you, though, I think the damage predictions are a little exaggerated. It will still be a fun storm for weather lovers - well, as fun as these bittersweet systems can be anyway.
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
Quoting Blizzard92:

Storms on this track have a history of tracking a bit farther east, as I noted last night, so I am not too surprised. Harrisburg is most affected by tropical storms when they travel up through a track like Hurricane Isabel.


Reminds me of the big snowstorms - ALWAYS trending east.
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
Quoting SilverShipsofAndilar:
Looks like she ticked a little farther east and Harrisburg will be spared the worst.

Storms on this track have a history of tracking a bit farther east, as I noted last night, so I am not too surprised. Harrisburg is most affected by tropical storms when they travel up through a track like Hurricane Isabel.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Looks like she ticked a little farther east and Harrisburg will be spared the worst.
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
Quoting TheF1Man:


Are you taking bets?

Kidding, I've got no knowledge but i'll guess strong cat 1.


I hope trop storm, That big tree in my profile pic with my kids kind of concerns me...The pic faces south.
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Quoting NYBizBee:
I figured that guess the million $ question is Cat 1 or 2?

I say category 1 by the time it reaches the Northeast or so.

Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
Any thoughts or has anyone heard what the storm surge from the Delmarva up into NY will be for Irene? Someone told me it could be as high as 10' at least for OCMD. I wonder if that translates to the tides being 10' higher? And I wonder how the moon will influence the tides during the storm?

I know I will be watching a few webcams from OCMD to Rehobeth with the storm. Hopefully, they will stay functionable and give a good shot of the storm

btw Blizz - I got a total of 0.53" of rain since this morning. It wasn't much until the last batch that came through this evening around 745pm and it dropped about 0.40"

My parents reported over 1.4in of rain back home today, ugh, yet again in the bullseye in Linglestown for heavy rain.

Storm surge of 5-10ft can probably be expected.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Quoting NYBizBee:
I figured that guess the million $ question is Cat 1 or 2?


Are you taking bets?

Kidding, I've got no knowledge but i'll guess strong cat 1.
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 677
Any thoughts or has anyone heard what the storm surge from the Delmarva up into NY will be for Irene? Someone told me it could be as high as 10' at least for OCMD. I wonder if that translates to the tides being 10' higher? And I wonder how the moon will influence the tides during the storm?

I know I will be watching a few webcams from OCMD to Rehobeth with the storm. Hopefully, they will stay functionable and give a good shot of the storm

btw Blizz - I got a total of 0.53" of rain since this morning. It wasn't much until the last batch that came through this evening around 745pm and it dropped about 0.40"
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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