Hurricane Irene...

By: Zachary Labe , 11:48 PM GMT on August 25, 2011

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"Current Temperature"


"Current Dewpoint"


"Current Surface Map and Weekly History of Jet Stream Position"


"Regional Radar"


"Regional Satellite"


"Regional Advisories"


"Soil Moisture Anomalies and 5-day Precipitation Amounts from Hydro Prediction Center"


"Severe Weather Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"


"12hr Estimated Precipitation"


"Forecast Max Temperatures"


"Forecast Min Temperature"


"Forecast Weather at 2pm"


"Current Storm Reports"


"Fire Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"

(All maps courtesy of NOAA and Penn State Meteo.)

"Forecast Model Links"
-NAM model 12z...Link
-GFS model 12z...Link
-NMM model 12z...Link
-SREF model 9z...Link

"Severe Weather Links"
-Atmospheric Soundings Skewt T charts...Link
-SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pages...Link
-Public Spotter Reports for State College NWS...Link
-Severe Weather Model Forecast indices...Link
-Severe Weather Parameter Definitions...Link

"Flooding Links"
-Automated Pennsylvania Rainfall Recording Stations...Link
-Flash Flooding Guidance...Link
-HPC Forecasts for Excessive Rainfall...Link
-Hydrology Predictions for Lakes, Rivers, and Streams...Link

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

Follow my 24hr forecasts on Twitter... Link and Facebook... Link.

My Hurricane Irene forecast track and associated wind...

*It was the first time for me using this mac paint software so still getting used to it.

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Wow, beautiful classic radar representation!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Also, P451, I calculated the center of the storm is still about 400 miles from ME, even averaging 20mph(which it is not), that would still be about 20 hours away, do you think that timing is about right? LT
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7596
P451, I guess in Stamford, I'll get similar weather that is listed for White Plains. LT
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7596
Raining here, heavy at times. I'm probably going to have a river down my street again. That's ok so long as trees remain standing!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
First band is moving through. Was slightly gusty just before it came, now it's calm and pouring. But it looks like a thin band on radar. Airlines are already cancelling flights into and out of KMDT.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
Calvert County Maryland just ordered the evacuation of all home within 100 feet of the Chesapeake Bay....seems they may think the storm is coming up the bay......
Member Since: September 10, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 486
At 11:47 the first rains from Irene arrived.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
If you look at the visible loop, Irene looks better now that it made landfall than it did before. The CDO has become less eroded/more circular.

As for the tornado threat...here is the updating ESRH map. If your area is within the 200m2/s2 contour then you have a chance of a tornado forming. Obviously the higher values are in the northeastern quadrant of the hurricane. This region will slide more inland over the Delmarva in the next hour or two.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
Just checked the weather stations in the area and rain is a quarter to half inch an hour.......it is pouring! Watching TWC...crazy to be on the beach in that wind.....Breezy here...Hoping for the best. With the move to the west looks like Irene might come up the bay??? any thoughts??
Member Since: September 10, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 486
Here in Northern Delaware the winds are increasing out of the northeast. The clouds are getting lower. It has that ominous feel to it.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
I expect a tornado watch this afternoon.

PS: Mike Siedel would not be standing on that beach if this maintained Cat 3 status! lol. He still better get into shelter soon, I'm ready for him to take off through the air like Mary Poppins.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
I'm actually driving to Hamilton NJ late this afternoon and coming back to Marietta Sunday evening. Wife doesn't want to drive in weather conditions so I said "I'll come there!!!" Expecting 9.39" rain, sustained winds of 60mph, gusts to 75mph, tropical storm conditions from 11pm Sat - 11am Sun with the worst of conditions around 6am Sun. Will probly get to sleep at a reasonable hour tonight and get up around 4am Sun. Can't wait!
------------------------------------------------- -----

You can see on radar now that the heaviest rain bands are shifting left of center as predicted due to...

...From NWS Mount Holly...

We
begin with some focus on a coastal front that has mostly set up
shop farther inland. The location of this feature will be crucial
in determining where the heavy rain axis occurs. It appears this
will be close to the Interstate 95 corridor, however it will
depend on the exact track of the center of Hurricane Irene. As the
hurricane moves to our latitude, the massive onshore flow will
probably tend to wrap the surface front westward and then
southward due to its large circulation. The influx of plenty of
moisture along with the surface front will result in an efficient
overrunning surface. This will result in excessive rainfall.

The precipitable water values forecast across the region are rather impressive
with 2.0-2.5 inches overspreading the region today into Sunday.
If the center gets close enough to the coast, some guidance
indicates the precipitable water values increase to just over 3.0 inches. This
amount of moisture in the atmosphere will lead to excessive
rainfall rates and totals. This combined with any upslope
enhancement and/or locally enhanced convergence/banding will add
to the rain rates. The initial influx of this higher moisture
content air along with the presence of a stationary front will lead
to bouts of locally very heavy downpours well before the hurricane
gets to our latitude.

Given
the quantitative precipitation forecast forecast /6 to 10 inches with locally up to 12 inches/ and
the antecedent conditions, the Flood Watch remains in effect and
we continue to carry a heavy rain mention in the forecast.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
910 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

...THE WETTEST MONTH ON RECORD AT PHILADELPHIA...
...RECORD MONTHLY RAINFALL AT PHILADELPHIA...

WITH THE 0.61 INCHES OF RAIN THAT FELL AT PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT YESTERDAY, THE AUGUST MONTHLY TOTAL NOW STANDS AT 13.61
INCHES. THIS SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS AUGUST RECORD OF 12.10 INCHES,
WHICH WAS SET BACK IN 1911.

THIS ALSO MAKES AUGUST 2011 THE ALL TIME WETTEST MONTH ON RECORD
BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 13.07 INCHES, WHICH OCCURRED DURING
SEPTEMBER 1999 /MOSTLY HURRICANE FLOYD/.

WITH HURRICANE IRENE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
WILL PUSH THESE RECORDS HIGHER.

Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
Thanks Blizz and P451. Yes, P451, looks like on Vis. Sat. she's taken one of those NW "curly Q " wobbles, lets see if that persists.LT
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7596
I'm listening to HAM radio updates in NC.
http://www.radioreference.com/apps/audio/?action= wp&feedId=9538

Crazy stuff. It's cloudy here now. We're in Irene's cloud deck. No rain right now. Just a wait and see thing. I have one shift at KMDT today and 2 tomorrow. We'll see what happens with the flights. If it's 30-40mph I can't see planes flying.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
Irene is getting a bit more organized this morning over North Carolina. Unconfirmed report of a gust over 115mph in NC.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Quoting anduril:
WGAL said less than an inch for Camp Hill/Hbg area from Irene. 0_o while I dont want ten inches I'd like a little more excitement than that!

GFS and ECMWF both show well over 2in of rain and the NWS just issued a flash flood watch for Dauphin at least. You will have some excitement.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
WGAL said less than an inch for Camp Hill/Hbg area from Irene. 0_o while I dont want ten inches I'd like a little more excitement than that!
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 170
Good morning! I see Harrisburg is now under a flash flood watch and wind advisory which was a good call! Irene looks to be a bit west this morning compared to some forecasts. Due to her large size, her intensity will not weaken very quick even though she is over land. It still may be a 70mph tropical storm by the time it reaches NYC.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Thanks for explaining about the 100mph winds, P! 70 is quite bad enough. During the last wind storm, trees were creaking all over the property and it was only around 50mph. I can't imagine 70!

We're ready. Just getting some extra fuel for the camping stove. Must have coffee. Looks like Philadelphia's not the worst area to be - NYC getting hit harder.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow. That's a monster hit on KMDT and the area. Holy cow. Heavy clouds will be in the area shortly and then it's game on.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
Quoting P451:
Hard to say Blizz if it's a wobble or a course change. Been there done that 100s of times with this system already only to have the previous course continue after time. So we will wait.

Discussion also suggest that around the outer banks the ridge will build back towards the mid-atlantic so expect the system to pull more northward again and ride the coast.

Have always said, and with good reason, Saturday AM was the target time to know what to expect for NJ/NY/CT regions. Got to see how it interacts with NC.

So, tomorrow it is. I'm all prepped so I can just sit back and watch the storm unfold through the day before it starts impacting us later Saturday evening and night.

By Sunday AM it's going to be howling.

Yea, it is probably wobble. I agree. Sure going to be interesting. Which location will you be for the duration of the storm?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Quoting P451:
I sure hope everyone is ready for this.

I will still stick to my 75mph western long island landfall.




Forecasts still call for high winds.

NYC:
NORTHEAST WINDS 55 TO 75
MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 55 TO 65 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP
TO 80 MPH.

Westchester County:
NORTHEAST WINDS 55 TO 75
MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 85 MPH.

Coastal NJ Counties:
NORTH WINDS 55 TO
75 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 100 MPH...BECOMING WEST AND...DIMINISHING
TO 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

Latest friends show a bit of a northeast deviation in the track it seems...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:


I guess it's just a waiting game. The TWC seems to be high on the European model. They also mention the GFS.

Wow, the Susquehanna would really flood if that happened.

That model would probably be the worst for the east coast

Essentially the newest NAM is identical to the recent runs of the ECMWF.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Quoting Blizzard92:
0z NAM is coming in about 50mi farther west and is very impressive! It even gets the heavier rain back into the Lower Susquehanna Valley in this run.


I guess it's just a waiting game. The TWC seems to be high on the European model. They also mention the GFS.

Wow, the Susquehanna would really flood if that happened.

That model would probably be the worst for the east coast
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
WOW! Harrisburg even gets pounded on this run with the second landfall at ACY.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
0z NAM is coming in about 50mi farther west and is very impressive! It even gets the heavier rain back into the Lower Susquehanna Valley in this run.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
1985 was hurricane Gloria.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
They are off their rockers I guess. was Gloria '85 or '86? I thought in the 70's and 80's there were a couple that passed just off OCMD's coast. One time we were down OCMD staying at a place on the oceanside in the 70's waiting for them to give the order to evacuate and they never did. It got pretty windy. We saw some screen doors get blown off.

Go figure, TWC to get their facts from some old Encyclopedia. As I eat a carrott, What A Maroon (TWC) comes out of my mouth.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:


1-3ft sounds good to me. I am just hoping it's not 5 or more feet. Thanks for giving me some hope.

It must be very high traffic. I have 2 computers connected and neither one would load the Wunderground page. It's working fine now.

I was watching TWC while I couldn't get connected and they were saying a storm has not taken this track since 1821. That is so amazing. Going up the east coast of the US seems like a scenario that would occur more often. Granted the east coast is not on one single line of longitude.

TWC is a bit off, lol. Just off the top of my head Floyd was a near identical track...


And Hurricane Gloria was very similar too...


It is not that rare for this track.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Quoting Blizzard92:

I am going 1-3ft surge for bay locales down there. I did not have any problems with wunderground, but it may be getting overloaded from the high traffic.


1-3ft sounds good to me. I am just hoping it's not 5 or more feet. Thanks for giving me some hope.

It must be very high traffic. I have 2 computers connected and neither one would load the Wunderground page. It's working fine now.

I was watching TWC while I couldn't get connected and they were saying a storm has not taken this track since 1821. That is so amazing. Going up the east coast of the US seems like a scenario that would occur more often. Granted the east coast is not on one single line of longitude.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
was it me or did Wunderground have problems? For an hour I haven't been able to get the page to load.



That would be great. I just got word the guy that was supposed to pull my boat out broke his leg and is in the hospital @ Fenwick Island, DE. The only good thing is that it is 3 miles inland. Hopefully, the water won't get too high in the back bay. UGH.

I am going 1-3ft surge for bay locales down there. I did not have any problems with wunderground, but it may be getting overloaded from the high traffic.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
was it me or did Wunderground have problems? For an hour I haven't been able to get the page to load.

Quoting Blizzard92:

Yep, I like my track and strength map. The Delmarva will be on the western side of the storm hopefully helping their case.


That would be great. I just got word the guy that was supposed to pull my boat out broke his leg and is in the hospital @ Fenwick Island, DE. The only good thing is that it is 3 miles inland. Hopefully, the water won't get too high in the back bay. UGH.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
My biggest fear from Irene is not how bad it could be, but how it may not live up to the media's hype and therefore people will not pay attention when a true threat comes along. I agree that necessary emergency management steps should be taken, but the media may be scaring people just a bit too much. 9/10 times the storms never live up to the media hype.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Quoting PhillySnow:
Hi all, and thanks Blizz and P for your thoughtful forecasts and advice.

I just left a conference in Minnesota early to beat the storm. So did everyone else! Lots of excitement in the airports. This would be as much fun as a snowstorm, except that these storms are so damaging and dangerous. I hope it's not too bad; I keep thinking of pittsburgnurse reminding us of what the hospitals are like during major weather events.....

I cannot imagine how terrible mass transportation is across the I-95 region including airlines. What a mess!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
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Humidity: 68%
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Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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