Hurricane Irene...

By: Zachary Labe , 11:48 PM GMT on August 25, 2011

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My Hurricane Irene forecast track and associated wind...

*It was the first time for me using this mac paint software so still getting used to it.

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166. TheRasberryPatch
1:37 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
the heavier rain is finally coming into my area. I am up to 0.24" of rain with it coming down at 0.30"/hr.

I saw a report from OCMD where some surf made it over the dunes, but it receded. I guess with the storm going to be in OCMD's area the next 6 hours or so the surf will probably breach a few dunes
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
165. P451
1:35 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
So we have a conflict of opinion here:


Dr. Masters:

Irene makes its 2nd landfall on Long Island, NY on Sunday, coastal locations to the right of the eye will likely experience top sustained winds of 50 - 60 mph. Coastal areas of Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and the New York CIty area will mostly see top winds in the 40 - 55 mph range


NWS:

630pm updated forecast, coastal NJ:
NORTHEAST WINDS 55 TO
75 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 90 MPH

820pm updated forecast, Manhattan:
NORTHEAST WINDS 55 TO 75
MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 55 TO 65 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP
TO 80 MPH.

Philadelphia 630pm updated forecast:
NORTHEAST
WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...INCREASING TO 40 TO
50 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

Sussex County, NJ (North West corner of NJ)
NORTHEAST
WINDS 45 TO 55 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 40 TO 50 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

Northern Westchester County, NY: (Peekskill)
EAST WINDS 45 TO
65 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 50 TO 70 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP
TO 80 MPH.



....who to believe? We will all find out as tomorrow comes and goes but it'd be nice to do. That's a large discrepancy.

Dr. Masters didn't go into any detail which is unfortunate. You'd think to make such a bold statement that contradicts the NHC and NWS forecasts that you'd be detailed in explaining your thinking.
Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
164. anduril
1:35 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
Looks like Hbg/CH area is just about to get the first of the heavy rains. Winds have been fairly calm in the past hour or so vs the 10-20mph winds we were seeing around 7-7:30 tonight. Pressure has dropped pretty decently as well according to WU
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 172
163. MariettaMoon
1:27 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
Reporting from Hamilton, NJ

At 9:25pm...
Rain: 1.94"
Wind ENE 24mph
Gusts 31mph
Pressure 29.48"
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
162. wunderstorm87
1:21 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
Quoting PhillySnow:

Steven DiMartino is saying the same thing about the pressure and the wind. This is not how it works?

Lower pressure does mean higher winds, but it doesn't necessarily mean higher winds at the surface. In this case the winds are high in the mid levels of the atmosphere. The difference in winds has been so great the NHC has mentioned in their discussions that they have stopped extrapolating surface winds from flight level wind data.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
161. Zachary Labe
1:19 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
Quoting wunderstorm87:
Tornado warnings popping up all over NJ, DE, & MD. Damage is already being reported in Delaware with at least one house destroyed. ESRH values are locally greater than 1000m2/s2 in these areas.

Sounds like Lewes, DE really got hit and now west of Atlantic City is under the gun...

Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
160. weathergeek5
1:17 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
The winds are really picking up. Just had a branch fall off of my tree. Rain slacked off a bit.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
159. wunderstorm87
1:12 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
Tornado warnings popping up all over NJ, DE, & MD. Damage is already being reported in Delaware with at least one house destroyed. ESRH values are locally greater than 1000m2/s2 in these areas.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
158. PhillySnow
12:53 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:

His tweets the last few days have been well over dramatic to plain ridiculous in my opinion. No wonder people are so frightened.

Steven DiMartino is saying the same thing about the pressure and the wind. This is not how it works?
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
157. Zachary Labe
12:40 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
Quoting wunderstorm87:
From Joe Bastardi on Twitter: "This has never occurred before..a 950 mb pressure with a wind of only 80 mph. Something will give once over the water.(wind will come up)"

Maybe a bit of a dramatic tweet? It's going to be difficult to get any strengthening given the lower water temps & wide wind field. Also there had to be a situation similar to this before with the pressure. Ike wasn't far off but it is certainly rare.

His tweets the last few days have been well over dramatic to plain ridiculous in my opinion. No wonder people are so frightened.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
156. wunderstorm87
12:39 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
From Joe Bastardi on Twitter: "This has never occurred before..a 950 mb pressure with a wind of only 80 mph. Something will give once over the water.(wind will come up)"

Maybe a bit of a dramatic tweet? It's going to be difficult to get any strengthening given the lower water temps & wide wind field. Also there had to be a situation similar to this before with the pressure. Ike wasn't far off but it is certainly rare.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
155. TheRasberryPatch
12:37 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
not much in SW Lebanon. 0.10" of rain for the day

It seems like the rain is hitting a barrier
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
154. Zachary Labe
12:32 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
Quoting shipweather:
looking at the radar it seems our first strong band is about to move into the Harrisburg area.

Yep, looks like Lancaster and York counties are getting pounded!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
153. shipweather
12:10 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
looking at the radar it seems our first strong band is about to move into the Harrisburg area.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
152. P451
11:56 PM GMT on August 27, 2011
Had our first decent rainfall. Winds just starting to show signs of life.

Central NJ telling me a pretty heavy rain band, flooding rain, and some strong winds now.

Reports from VA-NC are very intense.

Seems the strong stuff is in MD/VA right now - so we've got a ways to go before we get that. Early to mid morning hours Sunday for me I suppose for the real heavy weather.

Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
151. P451
11:54 PM GMT on August 27, 2011
RGB sure clears up it's heading, off the coast and going to parallel the coastline until a western Long Island landfall.



Water Vapor illustrating the classic presentation a system takes, tropical or non-tropical, as it departs NC and heads into the northern latitudes - the southern half of the storm evaporating due to continental air being drawn into the core. Of which is not a sign of weakening, this is not a deep tropics system this is a northern latitude system, the storm is not winding down it's just getting started now.



Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
I must say Foxnews is doing a nice job with the reporting from the beaches. From Kill Devil Hills to OCMD to Atlantic City to New York. TWC is lame lame lame. For an hour I saw countless pictures or video of New York's MTA and it not working. Really. Do I want to see that
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
Looks like she is now just moving offshore around Corolla or a tad north of there in NC.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Foxnews had their affiliate out of DC feed on for a few minutes at OCMD. The guy was on the boardwalk at the sea wall. He was covered in sea foam. He said the waves would come up and hit the wall and then would retreat for a few minutes and then back up to the wall again. They were saying high tide is around 730pm, so when Irene passes by OCMD around 2am it should be just pass low tide with an incoming tide. That is good news when it comes to tides.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
here is Rehobeth Beach. click on time lapse
Link
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
Gah, I cant get any of them to work. Screenshot!!
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
it's a shame that these websites can't handle the traffic. Link
this is a good one of the surf @ Castle in the Sand at 41st St.

this one is really good if you have the software to support it
Link
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
here is the link, but there is a lot of traffic there and it doesn't always load up. Look at HoJo's
Link

I got the kite loft one to load, very impressive! Thanks!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
here is the link, but there is a lot of traffic there and it doesn't always load up. Look at HoJo's
Link
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
Could you maybe post a screen shot please?
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
WOW!!! Link that!!
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
I was looking at a webcam in OCMD and the surf is up to the sea wall at the boardwalk. Anyone that knows the OCMD boardwalk that is amazing. On a regular day, it's a couple hundred yards from the boardwalk to the surf.

so far not much rain here. a total of 0.03"

Wow, can you get me a link?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
I was looking at a webcam in OCMD and the surf is up to the sea wall at the boardwalk. Anyone that knows the OCMD boardwalk that is amazing. On a regular day, it's a couple hundred yards from the boardwalk to the surf.

so far not much rain here. a total of 0.03"
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
Quoting originalLT:
Blizz, on NYCVORT"S blog, he posted the latest ECMWF model map, showing Irene centered about 50 miles off the Maryland coast. Does this "jive" with what you are seeing? (Of course this is a projection for later tonight).

So far Irene has not had too much easterly component, but eventually she should move out over open water. I think she might be a tad closer to the coast, but we shall see.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
more west movement means a ton of rain here.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
You are subscribed to NHC Forecast Discussions (Atlantic) for NOAA's National Weather Service.
Atlantic Hurricane IRENE Discussion Number 30
08/27/2011 04:57 PM EDT


000
WTNT44 KNHC 272057
TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

THE CENTER OF IRENE HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF THE INNER CORE
ACTUALLY IMPROVED FOR A FEW HOURS. SINCE THAT TIME...THE RAGGED
EYE HAS FILLED IN BUT THE CENTER REMAINS WELL DEFINED ON
RADAR...WHICH WARRANTS A RETURN TO TWO-HOURLY INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORIES. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 85-90 KT TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND A VERY RECENT CENTER DROP
MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 950 MB. THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY
RECENT SFMR DATA...BUT BASED ON THE EARLIER SHARP DISCREPANCY
BETWEEN THE FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SURFACE WINDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS REDUCED TO 70 KT. A SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS IRENE MOVES
ALONG THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION...COLDER WATERS...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. BECAUSE THE LARGE WIND FIELD WILL TAKE TIME
TO SPIN DOWN...HOWEVER...IRENE IS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE NEW
YORK AREA AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH.

MORE SO THAN WITH MOST STORMS...THE WINDS WITH IRENE INCREASE
SHARPLY WITH HEIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE. AS IRENE MOVES THROUGH
AREAS WITH HIGH-RISE STRUCTURES...THESE STRUCTURES WILL EXPERIENCE
WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN INDICATED BY THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY. WINDS AT THE 30-STORY LEVEL WILL LIKELY BE 20 PERCENT
HIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND WINDS 80-100 STORIES UP COULD BE
ABOUT 30 PERCENT HIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE.

THE CENTER CONTINUED NORTHWARD FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AFTER THE
RELEASE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT HAS RESUMED A NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION OF ABOUT 015/11. IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND OVER NEW
ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. AFTER THE CYCLONE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN 36-48
HOURS IT SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

NOTE THAT ESTIMATES OF STORM TOTAL RAINFALL HAVE BEEN INCREASED WITH
THIS ADVISORY...TO 20 INCHES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 36.2N 76.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 38.1N 75.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 41.7N 73.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/0600Z 46.2N 70.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 29/1800Z 50.7N 66.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 30/1800Z 56.5N 53.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 31/1800Z 59.0N 37.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/1800Z 61.0N 26.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN

Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
Blizz, on NYCVORT"S blog, he posted the latest ECMWF model map, showing Irene centered about 50 miles off the Maryland coast. Does this "jive" with what you are seeing? (Of course this is a projection for later tonight).
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7709
Skies are darkening again to my south and east. Expecting a stronger band to come through.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
NAM and the short term HRRR are a tad farther west in track especially expending the precipitation shield to the west.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Wow...the hurricane hunters just found a minimum surface pressure of 946.8mb. Typically pressures like that are associated with strong category 3's, but because this storm (and accordingly its wind field) is so large it is creating very low pressures.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
Quoting lawntonlookirs:
Thanks for the information Bliz. Still not raining in Harrisburg, but looksmlike it may start shortly.

P451, if I recall you moved from NJ and are living in NY. Where about?

Bliz did you start classes yet.

Yep, classes start Wednesday!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Clouds are ugly, but rain is pivoting away for now.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
Also, at the KMDT (Harrisburg) we have winds NE at 12. Gusting to 18. Nothing serious yet.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
Looks like the rains are getting close to KMDT.....
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
127. P451
Quoting originalLT:
Blizz and P451 thankyou for all your info. P451, I think on post # 116, the last value you meant was 70, not 90.Thanks again. PS. Same with me, if you don't hear from me for awhile,starting Sunday, you'll know its because I have no power. LT.


It was copied from the NWS statements they have had that error in there for some time. I'm not sure if it's supposed to be INCREASING TO 90 or as you say DECREASING TO 70.

*shrug*

Quoting lawntonlookirs:
Thanks for the information Bliz. Still not raining in Harrisburg, but looksmlike it may start shortly.

P451, if I recall you moved from NJ and are living in NY. Where about?

Bliz did you start classes yet.


I'm on the border of Croton and Ossining, NY - about 1.5 miles or so inland from the Hudson River (gotta measure that for sure one day LOL).

With Northern Westchester calling for 50-70 gusting 80... and southern 55-75 gusting 85... I'm in for it. Also up on a ridge line here that is always windier than the town below.

Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
126. P451
Damn you DIX radar DAMN YOU.

Keeps fading in and out. It even went down for a spell.

Worst timing.

At least I am covered by two others and the south end covered by DE but still it's in a good spot that should have some impressive features to watch.

Not that I'm likely to have the chance with the power situation and all up here but well....fix the damn thing.

I think it's the first and oldest doppler weather radar in the world.

Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
Thanks PhillySnow, just got an automated call from my local power co., CL&P, warning that if we lose power it might be for several days, if the overall damage is wide spread.--I think it will be. LT
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7709
Quoting originalLT:
Blizz and P451 thank you for all your info. P451, I think on post # 116, the last value you meant was 70, not 90.


I thought the 90 was a joke! I laughed, anyway. People seem to want to downplay this storm, and I think it's going to surprise people.

Good luck, LT!
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
Quoting Blizzard92:

Luckily I think New York City will miss the worst of the heavy rains and they will be located towards western New Jersey and northeastern Pennsylvania in the Poconos and on northward. Already over 15in of rain in NC!


this storm is pretty amazing. I don't recall many storms this big and lasting this long in one area. It seems more like a nor'easter that gives us 24" of snow.

15" in NC...wow. It's probably going to be similar rain amounts up the coast.

I just can't believe how long the strong winds will be in one area at a time
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
Blizz and P451 thankyou for all your info. P451, I think on post # 116, the last value you meant was 70, not 90.Thanks again. PS. Same with me, if you don't hear from me for awhile,starting Sunday, you'll know its because I have no power. LT.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7709
Quoting P451:


You're also going to get significant wind. This is not just a coastal wind event.


Trenton:
NORTHWEST WINDS 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH


Philadelphia:
EAST WINDS
35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST AND...
INCREASING TO 45 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH


Thanks, P! We're prepared. Got plenty of water, everything in, radio/flashlights/batteries, etc. I'm really surprised to see neighboring yards with furniture still outside. I think people won't believe it until it's upon us and then they'll be scrambling outside in the wind and rain.

A quarter of an inch of rain so far, and the ground is already saturated.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
Thanks for the information Bliz. Still not raining in Harrisburg, but looksmlike it may start shortly.

P451, if I recall you moved from NJ and are living in NY. Where about?

Bliz did you start classes yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:


Incredible isn't it?

This is going to be historic.

===

LT: As far as timing goes the storm is so large you can't focus on it much. I would suspect by 6pm it will be breezy, by 9pm windy, by 12am howling, and after that right into Sunday downright scary at times.

As for a landfall time on Long Island last I checked it seemed as early as 10am or 11am. I haven't put much focus on that given how large the storm is. 90mph wind gusts will be felt over a diameter of 300 miles or more now.

Just incredible in size.


Luckily I think New York City will miss the worst of the heavy rains and they will be located towards western New Jersey and northeastern Pennsylvania in the Poconos and on northward. Already over 15in of rain in NC!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
118. P451
Quoting Blizzard92:
Wow, beautiful classic radar representation!


Incredible isn't it?

This is going to be historic.

===

LT: As far as timing goes the storm is so large you can't focus on it much. I would suspect by 6pm it will be breezy, by 9pm windy, by 12am howling, and after that right into Sunday downright scary at times.

As for a landfall time on Long Island last I checked it seemed as early as 10am or 11am. I haven't put much focus on that given how large the storm is. 90mph wind gusts will be felt over a diameter of 300 miles or more now.

Just incredible in size.

Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
HRRR simulated radar...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
116. P451
Hi LT, yeah your winds are bad too. It's such a large expanding windfield and the baroclinic forcing is taking place combined with an expected venting by the jet stream later is going to keep her intense if not deepen her as time goes on.

This is not a normal situation where a tropical system makes landfall and the winds wind down quickly. The winds are not going to die down. I can't stress this enough.

EAST WINDS 50 TO 70 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 55 TO
75 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 85 MPH...DECREASING TO 90 MPH

Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202

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Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
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Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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