Hurricane Irene...

By: Zachary Labe , 11:48 PM GMT on August 25, 2011

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"12hr Estimated Precipitation"


"Forecast Max Temperatures"


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"Forecast Weather at 2pm"


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"Fire Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"

(All maps courtesy of NOAA and Penn State Meteo.)

"Forecast Model Links"
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Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

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My Hurricane Irene forecast track and associated wind...

*It was the first time for me using this mac paint software so still getting used to it.

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August 28, 2011 07:20 AM
40N,74W Some amazing video on our local cable channel NEWS12 at the Belmar Fishing Club Looks like 10 15- ft plunging waves that die out at the seaward edge of the pier. No power since about 0200 Z, trees down lots of damage to boardwalks. Marching to high tide. Old Mill Dam breached some time ago.
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43mph gust at KMDT now.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
I just emptied my Cocorahs - 2.98" Davis Vantage Pro - 2.54" Davis Vantage Pro II - 3.12"

I am sure the wind has something to do with the differing amounts. The DVP hasn't been checked lately for bird mess, so that could be a reason for it's numbers to be lower, but it has been similar to the other two rain gauges before the storm.

Not getting extremely strong gusts measured, but plenty of leaves strewn around the yard and pool. The strongest gust so far has been 25mph. 983.9mb is my low pressure
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
Pretty much a bust around here. Rainfall amounts about 3" less and peak winds 23mph - 25mph less than predicted as per the 2pm Saturday forecast. Was expecting around 12 hours of Tropical Storm conditions, but those conditions were never reached. I felt there was a chance of this happenig a few days ago when instead of strengthening to a Cat 4, Irene weakened to a Cat 2. Still looked interesting though as of yesterday afternoon. Yesterday evening, I checked winds around the mid-atlantic and they weren't matching up with what was predicted. Worst of conditions occured here from 10:30pm to 11:30pm last night as opposed to 4am to 8am today. Moderate to major flooding has panned out along creeks & rivers around here, even with 3" cut off from totals. I wonder how they'd be if the 9"-10" totals panned out.

Hurricane Irene so far in Hamilton, NJ
as of 6:45am Sun
Max Sustained: 35mph
Max Gust: 52mph
Rainfall: 5.54"

Current conditions:
Light Rain & Windy
Wind: NE 22mph
Gusts: 28mph
Pressure: 28.77"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
still sheets of rain at KMDT
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
Looks like it's winding down on the Eastern Shore. Over the last hour the winds increased from 25 sustained 35 gust to 40 sustained with numerous gusts over 50...and switched fron N to NW. Rain has nearly stopped for now. The pressure has risen over a 25 minute period from a low of 25.83" to 25.85" (as measured by local MDOT station).
Looks like I get to walk my dogs (all 4!) finally.
Lots of localized flooding and road closures, scattered power outages, and MANY trees and large branches down in nearly every neighboorhood, but no serious damage or injuries that I am aware of.
All in all, it was a wild ride, but not as bad as I expected...at least here in my area. Like Blizz, I would MUCH rather have a nice winter blizzard anyday over this mess.
-Mike
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TORNADO WARNING
NYC047-059-081-280815-
/O.NEW.KOKX.TO.W.0008.110828T0748Z-110828T0815Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
348 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN NASSAU COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
QUEENS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
KINGS (BROOKLYN) COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 415 AM EDT...

* AT 348 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF LIDO BEACH...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF MASSAPEQUA...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 55 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
FREEPORT...LONG BEACH...OCEANSIDE...BALDWIN...ATLANTIC BEACH...
LYNBROOK...HEMPSTEAD...CEDARHURST...WOODMERE...VAL LEY STREAM...
GARDEN CITY...MINEOLA...ELMONT...KENNEDY AIRPORT...HOWARD BEACH...
JAMAICA...MANHASSET...LITTLE NECK...OZONE PARK...CLEARVIEW
EXPRESSWAY...GREAT NECK...FOREST HILLS...BAYSIDE...WHITESTONE...
FLUSHING...JACKSON HEIGHTS...LAGUARDIA AIRPORT AND ASTORIA

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM SUNDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
25 mph winds here, gusts to 38 mph.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
It's winddddddddy!! Wow.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
Wow Maryland girl ,that sounds bad. Up here just some heavy rains, in the last hour or so, and not much in the way of winds. Looks like Irene may be trying to nudge further to the west as it comes up the coast. Appears to be less and less rain off to my south and East. We'll see. LT Stamford CT.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
Working off my tablet..just got this working. Terrible night in so md. Numerous trees and power lines down. Wind is still bad but changing direction so I will assume Irene is close to OCMD or past. Roads closed all over county. Have not had power for over6hours...heard a couple trees crash nearby. First light will be interesting.
Member Since: September 10, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 486
That's a great moving Satellite P451, Looks like it's transitioning to a barclonic low. Also thanks for your precip. discussion. I still see alot of dry air infiltrating it's South and SE/E, wrapping in towards it's center. But I do see that center area that's coming towards us.In the 11pm NHC. report, it's still moving only 16mph. I would guess it will start to accelerate soon. PS. I hope you don't lose power, you are so knowledgeable. So far here I have not gotten your winds, only 10-20mph. at most. I am 4 miles inland , and at 150' elevation.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
Quoting P451:


With 12-18" totals estimated by radar from NC through DE --- they might as well just put entire states in warnings.


No FFWs from CTP right now. Most areas have met flash flood guidance based on CCX radar estimates.

I just looked at other radars and it seems like CCX is either massively over-estimating precipitation or the rest are underestimating it. I'll go with the first based on DOX and LWX having only half of the rain CCX does for Lancaster & York counties. Gauge reports are virtually useless with the ridiculous under-catch.

Either way, it's only a matter of time before these areas reach FF guidance in all radar estimates & even rain gauge reports. Just wishing they'd get it over with now and not wake me up at 4am for a warning.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
There's a very noticeable orographic rainfall effect in Schuylkill county right now with rain rates over 1.5"/hr (compared to .5" to 1"/hr in all other areas). They will likely need a flash flood warning there shortly.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
The reporting station at Lancaster just measured a 44mph gust...it will only get worse from here on. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 60mph gust out of KLNS later tonight.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
Just saw that 11/15 northbound is closed at I-81 interchange due to debris on road in Cumberland County!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
Blizz, looking at your home area, and most of the Eastern third of PA., you are getting "POUNDED" with rain. So far for me , this is the storm that wasn't! I know it's early yet, but Irene is ingesting alot of dry air from the West, wrapping it around to it's South and SE. With it's NNE movement I may miss alot of the periphery rain, and only get the rain that is near it's weakening center as it practically goes right over me. So far not much wind here, only 10-15mph tops. Baro. is down to 29.53". I'll let you know.LT
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
Quoting wunderstorm87:
Not surprisingly I just recorded the lowest pressure ever on my weather station (It's only been up since May). It's at 29.50" and falling at a rate of .05"/hr.

Up to a quarter inch of rain here with winds around 10mph and gusts around 20mph likely causing some under-catch.
Both the gf and I have been having pains in our jaws since about 6pm which fits with the pressure drop. I've also been getting pretty constant throbbing pain in my knee (nothing new but still strange) since the pressure started dropping. Really wish I had an area to setup a weather station at our apartment complex to record it. Be interesting to relate it over a year or two
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Not surprisingly I just recorded the lowest pressure ever on my weather station (It's only been up since May). It's at 29.50" and falling at a rate of .05"/hr.

Up to a quarter inch of rain here with winds around 10mph and gusts around 20mph likely causing some under-catch.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
Pouring rain here in Ocean County inland, winds are starting to pick up. Roads ponding water. Tornado warning for Northwestern Ocean. So far a typical nor'easter for our area. Hopeing Irene lays down
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Raining steady here. Winds up to 8-10. Nothing wild yet. Unless it rains like this for 12 hours. That would be something.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
Decent rain coming through but its weird that since the rain started the winds have really calmed or atleast it seems so in my area.
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Prayers and hopes for a safe evening to all of you to the east. Please be careful.

We are in the clear of all but some breezes and clouds.
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Quoting weathergeek5:
just went outside rain is unbelievable!!!!


Went outside..hahaha be careful ..

Outside sounds like a car wash here...
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This is from the terminal radar in Philly at 10:17. This was almost certainly what prompted the warning and the rotation has now dissipated.


Edit: The link is frame based so the picture was old.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
Quoting CambridgeSpotter:
Ooops...should have said "sustained winds of 35-45 mph since 4pm."

As the storm passes to your north, winds will switch out of the north and some observers are reporting them to be even stronger after it passes. Keep an eye out!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
Ooops...should have said "sustained winds of 35-45 mph since 4pm."
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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHEASTERN DELAWARE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
CENTRAL PHILADELPHIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PHILADELPHIA...

* UNTIL 1100 PM EDT

* AT 1022 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
PHILADELPHIA
...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 45 MPH.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
Quoting originalLT:
Good luck NYBIZBEE, I have a good friend in Wantaugh LI. I guess thats pretty close to you. Yeah, its the duration that scares me too. Reminds me of the 2010 March noreaster we got. I know this is stronger, but that Noreaster just kept blowing on and on. Where I live in Stamford CT., it looked like a "war zone" after that storm. Thats what I'm worried about here.


ThanksLT- U too.
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just went outside rain is unbelievable!!!!
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
Here in Dorchester County, we've had sustained winds with heavy rain since 4pm. The highest gust was 61 mph at 6:55pm. Right now, things have really calmed down for the last 45 minutes...but I guess more will be on it's way as the storm is supposed to be nearly on top of Ocean City (60 miles east) at around 2am.
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Good luck NYBIZBEE, I have a good friend in Wantaugh LI. I guess thats pretty close to you. Yeah, its the duration that scares me too. Reminds me of the 2010 March noreaster we got. I know this is stronger, but that Noreaster just kept blowing on and on. Where I live in Stamford CT., it looked like a "war zone" after that storm. Thats what I'm worried about here.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
Quoting Blizzard92:
Likes like the first heavy band moving slowly northwest is right on the edge of I-81.
Yea, nice rainfall has started in Camp Hill now
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Likes like the first heavy band moving slowly northwest is right on the edge of I-81.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:


this storm is pretty amazing. I don't recall many storms this big and lasting this long in one area. It seems more like a nor'easter that gives us 24" of snow.

15" in NC...wow. It's probably going to be similar rain amounts up the coast.

I just can't believe how long the strong winds will be in one area at a time


I know the duration is what scares me. I feel bad my 6 year old is scared with the current weather already. Im in south nassau Long island. Getting bands with i would guess 25-35 gusts. Really hope the 70 to 90 dont happen.
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Moderate rain has just started here.

The hurricane hunters just measured a higher minimum central pressure of 955mb.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
The entire Mount Holly CWA is now under either a Flash flood warning or a flood warning. Very serious flooding is underway already with a good chance of 5" or more falling over their entire CWA.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
central New Castle County in northern Delaware...
this includes the city of Newark...
western Salem County in southern New Jersey...

* until 1015 PM EDT

* at 943 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado near Alloway...
or 15 miles southeast of Wilmington... moving west at 35 mph.

* The tornado will be near...
Salem by 955 PM EDT...
Pennsville by 1000 PM EDT...
Delaware City by 1005 PM EDT...
New Castle... Wilmington Manor and Newport by 1010 PM EDT...
bear by 1015 PM EDT...

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

The safest place to be during a tornado is in a basement. Get under a
workbench or other piece of sturdy furniture. If no basement is
available... seek shelter on the lowest floor of the building in an
interior hallway or room such as a closet. Use blankets or pillows to
cover your body and always stay away from windows.

If in Mobile homes or vehicles... evacuate them and get inside a
substantial shelter. If no shelter is available... lie flat in the
nearest ditch or other low spot and cover your head with your hands.

Please report hail or strong winds to the National Weather Service by
calling toll free... 1-877-633-6772... when you can do so safely.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 am EDT Sunday morning for
southern Delaware and New Jersey.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
the high buildings in Manhattan may experience those winds. I heard on tv that the winds at the surface may only be 40mph, but up 10 floors or higher and the winds may be a lot stronger. Also, the windows up there may not be able to withstand winds that strong. That has to be scary if you live up in one of the highrises in Manhattan
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
Quoting P451:
So we have a conflict of opinion here:


Dr. Masters:

Irene makes its 2nd landfall on Long Island, NY on Sunday, coastal locations to the right of the eye will likely experience top sustained winds of 50 - 60 mph. Coastal areas of Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and the New York CIty area will mostly see top winds in the 40 - 55 mph range


NWS:

630pm updated forecast, coastal NJ:
NORTHEAST WINDS 55 TO
75 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 90 MPH

820pm updated forecast, Manhattan:
NORTHEAST WINDS 55 TO 75
MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 55 TO 65 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP
TO 80 MPH.

Philadelphia 630pm updated forecast:
NORTHEAST
WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...INCREASING TO 40 TO
50 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

Sussex County, NJ (North West corner of NJ)
NORTHEAST
WINDS 45 TO 55 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 40 TO 50 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

Northern Westchester County, NY: (Peekskill)
EAST WINDS 45 TO
65 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 50 TO 70 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP
TO 80 MPH.



....who to believe? We will all find out as tomorrow comes and goes but it'd be nice to do. That's a large discrepancy.

Dr. Masters didn't go into any detail which is unfortunate. You'd think to make such a bold statement that contradicts the NHC and NWS forecasts that you'd be detailed in explaining your thinking.

I tend to lead towards agreeing with Dr. Masters in this instance. I really doubt any gusts to 80 or 90mph will be recorded even just east of the landfall.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
CUMBERLAND NJ-ATLANTIC NJ-
935 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM EDT FOR WEST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTIES...

AT 934 PM EDT...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
NEAR VINELAND...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 35 MPH.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
the heavier rain is finally coming into my area. I am up to 0.24" of rain with it coming down at 0.30"/hr.

I saw a report from OCMD where some surf made it over the dunes, but it receded. I guess with the storm going to be in OCMD's area the next 6 hours or so the surf will probably breach a few dunes
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276

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