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By: Zachary Labe , 12:54 AM GMT on August 21, 2011

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Arriving at Cornell signals the start of a chapter in an anthology. The anthology contains several short stories and/or chapters that feature a well-developed message. Time is a constant, but also more a figment of opinion. When we are sidetracked, time seems to move at the speed of sound. But when we are focused on time, it moves much slower. That applies back to the book analogy; when we enjoy a book, we can finish in hours. But throw us a book we do not enjoy, and many of us can hardly even finish it. I cannot believe how quickly high school came and left. Here I am now alone. Alone as in a different sort of independence. My entire schedule is based on when I chose to follow it. My grades are devoid of high school inflation, and now are left out to dry only being based on my actions. It is a bit intimidating arriving at any new location for any amount of time. We are taken out of our comfort zone and out of our shell. While we are most vulnerable, this allows us to mature and think more independently.

The past 24 hours have been focused on activity after activity after activity. In fact much of this past day is almost a blur. You meet so many people, but then never see them again so names are quickly forgotten. At times, you feel all emotions; lost, confused, happy. Cornell is an amazing place both through the physical campus and the spirit brought about by the student body. At any moment I can walk a few yards across scenic vistas overlooking miles and miles of mountains along with the finger lake visual of Lake Cayuga or I can trek across a rope bridge with a deep canyon and large waterfalls. I can walk from the 19th century to the 21st century in a matter of minutes looking at unique gothic architecture to buildings of the future. I have met so many amazing people with unique talents. Quoting others, “I have never felt so normal.” These people are some of the most intelligent I have come in contact with from those already concerned with topics ranging from the geology rock collections to those already entering Calculus IV as a freshman! Also a pleasant surprise arose during a choral concert I attended earlier this evening. The student body turnout was superb, far above what I observed in my high school. Being surprised by these types of talents is not only humbling, but is in a sense overwhelming. There are many of times when it is easy to get their feeling of being all alone. This feeling surely will wane as the transition continues to occur, but at first the thought is scary. College is not only about academic growth, but individual growth. It pushes our boundaries and limits to where they have never been before.

I am excited and blessed to be in the presence of this amazing university. While I hold reservations in the present, I feel the transition will only become smoother and less rigid. Meteorologically we are also entering one of our two yearly transitions where the entire landscape is radically modified. Days are becoming shorter. School is back in session. Animals are seen quickly gathering food. Trees begin to show stress. As the polar jet begins to sink south cooler and cooler air masses begin to drop into the contiguous United States, the weather begins to loose those hot summer days as they become even less frequent.

A lot of people are already beginning to look at the upcoming global patterns to approach a forecast for the upcoming winter. At this point it still is a bit early to make generalizations. The ENSO appears to favor a weak La Nina currently and ice levels are beginning to recover across the northern Hemisphere particularly in Russia and the Arctic. Also the PDO is a bit more encouraging than the past few years. And finally our –NAO remains stagnant in this incredible session of near record negative values during the past few years. Of course there are other concerns not as promising for the winter, but all in all variables at least are not signaling a blowtorch winter (for now). I hope to have a winter forecast out sometime in September if time permits.



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111. TheRasberryPatch
11:46 PM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:
Looks like more rain back home towards Harrisburg today with radar estimates over 1in for today. Just what we needed in Linglestown, lol.


I didn't get that much. Storm passing through now, but it moved just to my south.

Quoting NJLuLu:


Check out http://www.weather.gov/ You can input your zip or town. Astronomical tides are definite factor. I did not haul out our boat, we are secured in port off Barnegat bay. Hope this helps.


i will have my boat out by Saturday. I am in Fenwick Island, DE. It's protected, but the water levels could get up to 10' above normal from what I was told.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
110. Hoynieva
11:44 PM GMT on August 25, 2011
I was supposed to fly out today, but instead, thanks to the afternoon T-storms and an unreliable United Airlines staff, we were able to enjoy 6 frigid hours sitting around in the oldest of airports before finally being cancelled upon entirely and sent home until tomorrow. The only worry for me is, if this doesn't happen we may not get out thanks to Irene. Perhaps I should replace worry with hope.

I would love to go visit my friends in Seattle and Portland, but how often does a Northeast resident have the opportunity to experience not only one of the most extreme powers of nature, but the way the inhabitants of this planet prepare and respond to such an event. It looks like it will be a minimal hurricane in terms of wind when it hits us, but just the fact that it'll probably be a hurricane really excites me. I do worry about the flooding though...that could be really dire news.

All in all, I hope to fly west tomorrow while still secretly hoping to be here to witness something most people would rather not be a part of. If that makes me weird or crazy, then I'm a happily crazy weirdo.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
109. Zachary Labe
11:41 PM GMT on August 25, 2011
Looks like more rain back home towards Harrisburg today with radar estimates over 1in for today. Just what we needed in Linglestown, lol.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
108. NJLuLu
11:17 PM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
Anyone know what kind of effect the new moon will have on the tides and storm surge, especially with Irene hitting Saturday evening into Sunday evening around the Mid-Atlantic


Check out http://www.weather.gov/ You can input your zip or town. Astronomical tides are definite factor. I did not haul out our boat, we are secured in port off Barnegat bay. Hope this helps.
Member Since: January 10, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
107. Hoynieva
10:59 PM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting MariettaMoon:
Wow. Could get chilly in NYC next Thursday afternoon.

From NWS Upton...
Thursday...Sunny. Highs around 80. Temperature falling to around 75 below in the afternoon.


Haha, that sounds like an atmosphere-less micro planet.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
106. MariettaMoon
10:25 PM GMT on August 25, 2011
Wow. Could get chilly in NYC next Thursday afternoon.

From NWS Upton...
Thursday...Sunny. Highs around 80. Temperature falling to around 75 below in the afternoon.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
105. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:21 PM GMT on August 25, 2011


09L/MH/I/C3
RI FLAG (FLAG)
MARK
26.00n/77.00w forecast point
come about n by ne





ALWAYS FOLLOW NHC/TPC FORECASTS FOR ALL WARNINGS REGARDING THIS STORM
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53599
104. TheRasberryPatch
8:35 PM GMT on August 25, 2011
Anyone know what kind of effect the new moon will have on the tides and storm surge, especially with Irene hitting Saturday evening into Sunday evening around the Mid-Atlantic
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
103. bwi
7:36 PM GMT on August 25, 2011
Looks to me like 12z ECMWF shifted back east a little, with track over VA Beach, then Ocean City MD. That's a relief for those of us in DC/Baltimore -- that 0z run was too close.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1382
102. TheF1Man
7:22 PM GMT on August 25, 2011
P451 that first map you posted puts that track over my house.
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
101. TheRasberryPatch
7:14 PM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting P451:
For Virgina northward: You are looking at a Hurricane Gloria repeat if the present forecast holds..



Remember, Gloria struck at LOW TIDE in NJ on that day. I remember I was there. Barrier "island" from Long Branch to Sandy Hook. Water levels were into the second story of all the buildings in Sea Bright, NJ. Just keep that in mind...low tide it hit.



I was in college and they were cancelling everything around Baltimore. It really didn't do much inland. I don't think we got much rain.

I believe it passed 60 miles East of OCMD.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
98. MariettaMoon
5:47 PM GMT on August 25, 2011
TUESDAY 8/23 NORTHEAST RECORD LOW
Danville VA: 54F (t)
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
96. bwi
3:28 PM GMT on August 25, 2011
Dr Masters blog at 11am pretty sobering. I also think it's best to focus on the more westward ECMWF track, since it seems to pick out new trends faster than the other models. Irene already nearing 77w at the 11am update. Any further westward trend on the track could bring truly nasty conditions to the DC/Balt/Philly area, though that could help spare NYC and New England some if an inland track verifies.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1382
94. Zachary Labe
3:04 PM GMT on August 25, 2011
Looking like this scenario is all in all bad. Probably the best case scenario other than this recurving, would be for it to head more west where it will be able to weaken faster with the heavier rains farther away from the major metropolitan areas. I would definitely be preparing along I-95 and eastward at the minimum.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
93. TheRasberryPatch
2:39 PM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:
0z ECMWF is on the western side of the tracks with the heavy rain corridor up through central and eastern Pennsylvania on northward and southward on the parallels. Tropical storm force winds as far back as Lewistown, PA on this run.


I am surprised this front moving through doesn't kick it out to sea. Most of the models have the storm tracking a bit west of yesterday. Some have it moving up near the Chesapeake or Salisbury. That could be very devasting to the whole Delmarva and points north of there.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
92. Zachary Labe
2:29 PM GMT on August 25, 2011
0z ECMWF is on the western side of the tracks with the heavy rain corridor up through central and eastern Pennsylvania on northward and southward on the parallels. Tropical storm force winds as far back as Lewistown, PA on this run.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
91. MariettaMoon
2:12 PM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:
I am on the big wait and see type trend with this storm. Steering currents are relatively weak so it does not take a lot to push this storm farther east or west. Latest 0z model runs hot off the press appear a bit further east than earlier runs today.


This is "The Conservative Side of Blizz" speaking
:-)
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
90. TheF1Man
2:12 PM GMT on August 25, 2011
Hey Lt i know these things usually do miss us, but last night i was watching TWC and their coverage was solid i thought. They actually explained the different models a little bit like the Euro, which wants to smother NYC and the ECMWF which wants to bury long island and eastward.


LT it's not looking food for us.
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
89. MariettaMoon
1:53 PM GMT on August 25, 2011
I'd give up on much more of an eastward shift. If anything, I think a westward shift is more likely than an eastward shift at this point.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
88. MariettaMoon
1:50 PM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting bwi:
Good morning Blizz -- I haven't been on your blog since last winter I don't think. But I was checking in to see if you'd have time for discussion of the potential impact of Irene on the southern midatlantic states.

Since the models seemed to settle yesterday on track through the outer banks, off the coast of Delmarva and NJ, to eastern tip of Long Island and Rhode Island, I sort of felt like we didn't need to worry in the DC-Baltimore area. Just seemed to warrant a few normal precautions like getting gas for the generator in case blustery 30 or 40 mph northerly winds bring down some tree branches on to our power lines. (Actually, in the DC area power can be knocked out for a couple hours by large bird dropping hitting the power lines...) Anyways, being on the west side usually means much drier air and not as much rain -- more of a nonevent.

However, one thing I've been noticing on GFS is that the precipitation seems tilted to the west and north as the hurricane approaches the mouth of the Chesapeake.
This is not what I'd expect if it's undergoing southwesterly shear. Heavy rains in the DC/Baltimore area would bring down more wind, in my opinion, as the storm passes by to the east.

Plus, the track now seems more over Hampton Roads area and right at the mouth of the Chesapeake, and just barely off the coast of Ocean City. That's a little more concerning, especially if it doesn't weaken much and is still in the 960mb range!

Sustained 50 mph winds with all the full-leaf trees and somewhat softened ground from recent rains could be quite a bit more serious as far as power outages and tree damage in the DC area.


Just about all of the models have the heaviest banding on the west side of center after passing VA and up into New England.

A direct hit is not necessary here. The storm is so large that tropical storm force winds and flooding rains could spread well inland. With areas like Philadelphia likely to break the all-time monthly rainfall record for any month in a few minutes with an additional inch today, the ground is very saturated and it will not take much to knock down trees onto powerlines and see creeks & rivers rise to near or above record levels. Millions will likely be without power.

Another important idea is that this could affect the entire coast from NC to MA with a storm surge which could even include the major bays. Usually you have a landfall in one spot, bang, then inland. Any idea how much property could be affected by this? Wow. It doesn't have to be at major hurricane status to end up rivaling the costliest events in U.S. history due to its diameter, longevity near coastline and heavy population / property along the northeast Atlantic coast.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
87. bwi
1:19 PM GMT on August 25, 2011
If I'm reading this right, 0z ECMWF has a 960mb low in the mid Chesapeake Bay, and it tracks west of Dover Delaware. Yikes!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1382
85. SilverShipsofAndilar
12:50 PM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting originalLT:
I don't know Blizz, on the 11pm news the local met said the most reliable models, nudged a little West. Same said after 11pm on TWC.


Accuweather said the same thing, and their new forecasts released this morning call for a mid-Atlantic/New England catastrophe. Would be a perfect one-two punch after all the rain we got today, but I am still thinking eastward shift.
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
84. bwi
12:26 PM GMT on August 25, 2011
Good morning Blizz -- I haven't been on your blog since last winter I don't think. But I was checking in to see if you'd have time for discussion of the potential impact of Irene on the southern midatlantic states.

Since the models seemed to settle yesterday on track through the outer banks, off the coast of Delmarva and NJ, to eastern tip of Long Island and Rhode Island, I sort of felt like we didn't need to worry in the DC-Baltimore area. Just seemed to warrant a few normal precautions like getting gas for the generator in case blustery 30 or 40 mph northerly winds bring down some tree branches on to our power lines. (Actually, in the DC area power can be knocked out for a couple hours by large bird dropping hitting the power lines...) Anyways, being on the west side usually means much drier air and not as much rain -- more of a nonevent.

However, one thing I've been noticing on GFS is that the precipitation seems tilted to the west and north as the hurricane approaches the mouth of the Chesapeake.
This is not what I'd expect if it's undergoing southwesterly shear. Heavy rains in the DC/Baltimore area would bring down more wind, in my opinion, as the storm passes by to the east.

Plus, the track now seems more over Hampton Roads area and right at the mouth of the Chesapeake, and just barely off the coast of Ocean City. That's a little more concerning, especially if it doesn't weaken much and is still in the 960mb range!

Sustained 50 mph winds with all the full-leaf trees and somewhat softened ground from recent rains could be quite a bit more serious as far as power outages and tree damage in the DC area.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1382
83. originalLT
4:17 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
I don't know Blizz, on the 11pm news the local met said the most reliable models, nudged a little West. Same said after 11pm on TWC.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7500
82. SilverShipsofAndilar
3:20 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:

Actually I just got a macbook pro and the software is not compatible with it at this time so unfortunately I am offline for my software.


I am a Mac devotee and I run into this garbage all the time. I had the same problem trying to look at some weather model runs a few years ago when I first started reading your blog. What I have found, though, is that, where a Mac-incompatible product provides no work around, often there is a superior Mac-exclusive product. You're probably in a tough spot with the money already tied up in software and equipment though. Brand loyalty aside, I think this is missing central PA. I am definitely digging the hype though. I grew up in Houston but was never around for a hurricane. But with the thunderstorms, floods, tornados, ice, blizzards and earthquakes, I think we have our fair share of natural disasters up here - without the hurricanes.
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
81. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:15 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
09L/MH/I/C3
RI FLAG (off)
MARK
26.00n/76.00w forecast point





ALWAYS FOLLOW NHC/TPC FORECASTS FOR ALL WARNINGS REGARDING THIS STORM
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53599
80. shipweather
3:12 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
This could be very very interesting. She's growing and now they are saying could get up to Cat. 4. Seriously stuff. Trees and power lines around here are NOT meant for winds TS strength for extended periods. Nor do we need much more rain....
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
79. Zachary Labe
2:50 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
I am on the big wait and see type trend with this storm. Steering currents are relatively weak so it does not take a lot to push this storm farther east or west. Latest 0z model runs hot off the press appear a bit further east than earlier runs today.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
77. Zachary Labe
2:37 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
Blizz - do you still have your weather station up and running at home?

It's amazing how these storms (tropical)just make you want them to get here and be done with them. This watching it from afar is like waiting to get your teeth pulled.

Actually I just got a macbook pro and the software is not compatible with it at this time so unfortunately I am offline for my software.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
76. SilverShipsofAndilar
2:32 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Any thoughts on central PA impact from Irene? I'm thinking it will be too far east for us. More impacts in New England maybe.
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
75. wxgeek723
12:47 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
Blizz - do you still have your weather station up and running at home?

It's amazing how these storms (tropical)just make you want them to get here and be done with them. This watching it from afar is like waiting to get your teeth pulled.


I agree! I just want Irene done with. It excites me to have a tropical storm like Hanna in 2008 skirt through and maybe even TS conditions from a hurricane well offshore but a large category 2 off the Jersey Shore makes me a bit apprehensive. People have been comparing Irene to Floyd but I really see more affinities with Gloria.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3561
74. MariettaMoon
12:43 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
Blizz - do you still have your weather station up and running at home?

It's amazing how these storms (tropical)just make you want them to get here and be done with them. This watching it from afar is like waiting to get your teeth pulled.


Yeah, seriously
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
73. TheRasberryPatch
12:28 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Blizz - do you still have your weather station up and running at home?

It's amazing how these storms (tropical)just make you want them to get here and be done with them. This watching it from afar is like waiting to get your teeth pulled.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
72. NJLuLu
12:01 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Just heard .25 of rain with likely severe thunderstorms for Thurs and Fri. We are still soaked in some areas, trees can't take the saturation. Jersey Shore
Member Since: January 10, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
71. MariettaMoon
11:57 PM GMT on August 24, 2011
Anyone notice that 1.00" or more of rain is expected tomorrow up the I-95 corridor from Washington DC to New Haven CT? Getting the ground nice & juicy for this weekend I guess.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
70. MariettaMoon
10:16 PM GMT on August 24, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:
Another nice cool morning here in Ithaca in the 50s.


59F here
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
69. MariettaMoon
10:15 PM GMT on August 24, 2011
Model guidance halted its eastward shift for the first time during Irene's lifetime at 2 pm today and actually took a westward shift at 5 pm.

From NHC...
The new ECMWF shows much more amplification of the trough... which has resulted in its track shifting over 100 miles to the west...and this skillful long-range model now defines the western edge of the guidance envelope.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
68. Zachary Labe
11:41 AM GMT on August 24, 2011
Another nice cool morning here in Ithaca in the 50s.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
67. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:49 AM GMT on August 24, 2011
09L/MH/I/C3
RI FLAG (ON)
MARK
22.10n/73.13w next checkpoint


off track sw jog




ALWAYS FOLLOW NHC/TPC FORECASTS FOR ALL WARNINGS REGARDING THIS STORM
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53599
65. Zachary Labe
2:11 AM GMT on August 24, 2011
Wunderground now offering 3hr ECMWF model maps. Check it out!!!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
64. originalLT
1:29 AM GMT on August 24, 2011
Hi MM, yeah I see that some models turn it back North, but that happens so rarely. Once they start that NE turn it's almost always for good--no bending back. But I guess it's possible.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7500
63. MariettaMoon
1:20 AM GMT on August 24, 2011
Quoting originalLT:
Hi THEF1Man,my gut feeling with this one, is an eventual curve off to the NE. I've seen so many do this in my 50 years plus of watching these systems, missing New England, giving us only a glancing blow. However, Sully on Sullivan weather feels pretty stongly the storm will pass over the Eastern half of Long Island, and then on up into NE, Thus giving us in CT tropical storm force winds with periods of very heavy rain. I guess it's the old story, "time will tell". LT PS. Good luck back in college--when ever you get there!.


My gut feeling has been saying the same thing. Just so close. Some of the more reliable models are projecting a turn northeast with a turn back to the north with a northern mid-atlantic / southern New England landfall rather than heading out to sea.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
62. MariettaMoon
1:15 AM GMT on August 24, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:

I really am not sure and have not been able to follow it too closely. But I do think while impacts will be severe in some areas depending on strength and track, I think some people are going overboard already declaring a multi-billion dollar disaster. I think the best tone is to raise awareness, but not have everyone running for the hills through scare tactics. I have some time tonight to give the forecast a look.


Hmmm. Ok. Interesting. I agree it's way too far out to give any specifics or scare tactics this far out for the U.S. I think with a track close to the coast that storm surge, beach erosion & major flooding would be a problem from SC through ME. If that is indeed the track that pans out, it could well be a multi-bill disaster, but too early to forecast that accurately.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
61. MariettaMoon
1:08 AM GMT on August 24, 2011
yelled a word that rhymes with sit

LMAO!
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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