The Northeast Weather Blog...

Transitions...
Posted by: Zachary Labe, 12:54 AM GMT on August 21, 2011 +1
Arriving at Cornell signals the start of a chapter in an anthology. The anthology contains several short stories and/or chapters that feature a well-developed message. Time is a constant, but also more a figment of opinion. When we are sidetracked, time seems to move at the speed of sound. But when we are focused on time, it moves much slower. That applies back to the book analogy; when we enjoy a book, we can finish in hours. But throw us a book we do not enjoy, and many of us can hardly even finish it. I cannot believe how quickly high school came and left. Here I am now alone. Alone as in a different sort of independence. My entire schedule is based on when I chose to follow it. My grades are devoid of high school inflation, and now are left out to dry only being based on my actions. It is a bit intimidating arriving at any new location for any amount of time. We are taken out of our comfort zone and out of our shell. While we are most vulnerable, this allows us to mature and think more independently.

The past 24 hours have been focused on activity after activity after activity. In fact much of this past day is almost a blur. You meet so many people, but then never see them again so names are quickly forgotten. At times, you feel all emotions; lost, confused, happy. Cornell is an amazing place both through the physical campus and the spirit brought about by the student body. At any moment I can walk a few yards across scenic vistas overlooking miles and miles of mountains along with the finger lake visual of Lake Cayuga or I can trek across a rope bridge with a deep canyon and large waterfalls. I can walk from the 19th century to the 21st century in a matter of minutes looking at unique gothic architecture to buildings of the future. I have met so many amazing people with unique talents. Quoting others, “I have never felt so normal.” These people are some of the most intelligent I have come in contact with from those already concerned with topics ranging from the geology rock collections to those already entering Calculus IV as a freshman! Also a pleasant surprise arose during a choral concert I attended earlier this evening. The student body turnout was superb, far above what I observed in my high school. Being surprised by these types of talents is not only humbling, but is in a sense overwhelming. There are many of times when it is easy to get their feeling of being all alone. This feeling surely will wane as the transition continues to occur, but at first the thought is scary. College is not only about academic growth, but individual growth. It pushes our boundaries and limits to where they have never been before.

I am excited and blessed to be in the presence of this amazing university. While I hold reservations in the present, I feel the transition will only become smoother and less rigid. Meteorologically we are also entering one of our two yearly transitions where the entire landscape is radically modified. Days are becoming shorter. School is back in session. Animals are seen quickly gathering food. Trees begin to show stress. As the polar jet begins to sink south cooler and cooler air masses begin to drop into the contiguous United States, the weather begins to loose those hot summer days as they become even less frequent.

A lot of people are already beginning to look at the upcoming global patterns to approach a forecast for the upcoming winter. At this point it still is a bit early to make generalizations. The ENSO appears to favor a weak La Nina currently and ice levels are beginning to recover across the northern Hemisphere particularly in Russia and the Arctic. Also the PDO is a bit more encouraging than the past few years. And finally our –NAO remains stagnant in this incredible session of near record negative values during the past few years. Of course there are other concerns not as promising for the winter, but all in all variables at least are not signaling a blowtorch winter (for now). I hope to have a winter forecast out sometime in September if time permits.



Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

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101. TheRasberryPatch 7:14 PM GMT on August 25, 2011    
Quoting P451:
For Virgina northward: You are looking at a Hurricane Gloria repeat if the present forecast holds..



Remember, Gloria struck at LOW TIDE in NJ on that day. I remember I was there. Barrier "island" from Long Branch to Sandy Hook. Water levels were into the second story of all the buildings in Sea Bright, NJ. Just keep that in mind...low tide it hit.



I was in college and they were cancelling everything around Baltimore. It really didn't do much inland. I don't think we got much rain.

I believe it passed 60 miles East of OCMD.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5634
102. TheF1Man 7:22 PM GMT on August 25, 2011    
P451 that first map you posted puts that track over my house.
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 571
103. bwi 7:36 PM GMT on August 25, 2011    
Looks to me like 12z ECMWF shifted back east a little, with track over VA Beach, then Ocean City MD. That's a relief for those of us in DC/Baltimore -- that 0z run was too close.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1134
104. TheRasberryPatch 8:35 PM GMT on August 25, 2011    
Anyone know what kind of effect the new moon will have on the tides and storm surge, especially with Irene hitting Saturday evening into Sunday evening around the Mid-Atlantic
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5634
105. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 10:21 PM GMT on August 25, 2011    


09L/MH/I/C3
RI FLAG (FLAG)
MARK
26.00n/77.00w forecast point
come about n by ne





ALWAYS FOLLOW NHC/TPC FORECASTS FOR ALL WARNINGS REGARDING THIS STORM
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40400
106. MariettaMoon 10:25 PM GMT on August 25, 2011    
Wow. Could get chilly in NYC next Thursday afternoon.

From NWS Upton...
Thursday...Sunny. Highs around 80. Temperature falling to around 75 below in the afternoon.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 676
107. Hoynieva 10:59 PM GMT on August 25, 2011    
Quoting MariettaMoon:
Wow. Could get chilly in NYC next Thursday afternoon.

From NWS Upton...
Thursday...Sunny. Highs around 80. Temperature falling to around 75 below in the afternoon.


Haha, that sounds like an atmosphere-less micro planet.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1292
108. NJLuLu 11:17 PM GMT on August 25, 2011    
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
Anyone know what kind of effect the new moon will have on the tides and storm surge, especially with Irene hitting Saturday evening into Sunday evening around the Mid-Atlantic


Check out http://www.weather.gov/ You can input your zip or town. Astronomical tides are definite factor. I did not haul out our boat, we are secured in port off Barnegat bay. Hope this helps.
Member Since: January 10, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
109. Zachary Labe 11:41 PM GMT on August 25, 2011    
Looks like more rain back home towards Harrisburg today with radar estimates over 1in for today. Just what we needed in Linglestown, lol.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14295
110. Hoynieva 11:44 PM GMT on August 25, 2011    
I was supposed to fly out today, but instead, thanks to the afternoon T-storms and an unreliable United Airlines staff, we were able to enjoy 6 frigid hours sitting around in the oldest of airports before finally being cancelled upon entirely and sent home until tomorrow. The only worry for me is, if this doesn't happen we may not get out thanks to Irene. Perhaps I should replace worry with hope.

I would love to go visit my friends in Seattle and Portland, but how often does a Northeast resident have the opportunity to experience not only one of the most extreme powers of nature, but the way the inhabitants of this planet prepare and respond to such an event. It looks like it will be a minimal hurricane in terms of wind when it hits us, but just the fact that it'll probably be a hurricane really excites me. I do worry about the flooding though...that could be really dire news.

All in all, I hope to fly west tomorrow while still secretly hoping to be here to witness something most people would rather not be a part of. If that makes me weird or crazy, then I'm a happily crazy weirdo.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1292
111. TheRasberryPatch 11:46 PM GMT on August 25, 2011    
Quoting Blizzard92:
Looks like more rain back home towards Harrisburg today with radar estimates over 1in for today. Just what we needed in Linglestown, lol.


I didn't get that much. Storm passing through now, but it moved just to my south.

Quoting NJLuLu:


Check out http://www.weather.gov/ You can input your zip or town. Astronomical tides are definite factor. I did not haul out our boat, we are secured in port off Barnegat bay. Hope this helps.


i will have my boat out by Saturday. I am in Fenwick Island, DE. It's protected, but the water levels could get up to 10' above normal from what I was told.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5634

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About Blizzard92
Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Student; Central PA SKYWARN Storm Spotter; American Meteorological Society Member; PA CoCoRaHS Branch Member

Personal Weather Stations
Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 63.2 °F
Dew Point: 62.0 °F
Humidity: 96%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 3.0 mph
Updated: 5:08 PM EDT on May 19, 2013
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