Extreme Heat and Convective Rainfall Patterns...

By: Zachary Labe , 9:15 PM GMT on July 31, 2011

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Excuse myself for the last few months of my tardiness in new blogs. The past few months have been a whirlwind and it is interesting to see how I have grown and developed. August 19 signals the approach of something that seemed so far away. My dorm (I have a single!) items are bought and we are finishing up the last few odds and ends. I have enjoyed these last few weeks after cruising to Bermuda and traveling down to Ocean City with my best friend. I am soon in the process of saying goodbye to my grade school friends as I enter a new chapter in my life. College is not only about academic growth, but of almost equal importance; personal growth. Just as I reflect on the last few years of my social stature, I have very few friends left from my elementary school. My entire social circle through high school was formed during the 7th grade and stayed with me through high school. I have met some of the most wonderful people you could ever want to be friends with whom not only are a pleasure to be around, but also concerned with academics. 'Fitting in' is not a set concept and is always modifying. I am sure everyone can remember their 'group' they paled around during high school with and many of us took time to figure out who we are during these important growth years. Looking back, I would never change a single thing about the friends I have made or the decisions I have made. It is exciting to realize that essentially I am starting from the ground up once again starting college. And yes I will find my fit once again; my social circle of people of all different backgrounds.

I realize that there are very few close friends in high school I will end up keeping close contact with in the coming years. In fact unfortunately, I probably will only keep in correspondence with my best friend and less than a handful of other people. This is not because I chose to, but a fact of life. But I will never forget these people whom made the largest impacts during my impressionable adolescent years. You can say these people were not important, but that would be false. Our friends through grade school do influence the people we become.

So I say goodbye. And for many this goodbye is not a quick bye, it is permanent. The minute I walked across the graduation stage ended the memories of my teenage years as I enter what many would call their peak in their lives. Where ever I end up will always reflect the people who made that positive impact during my youth. My family, friends, teachers, etc. have all been a part of this process. If you can surround yourself with a such circle, you are set.

The Wunderground community has been a major part of my opportunities I have been presented from media attention to my college application. I appreciate the community we have here and this is my formal announcement that I hope to continue it through the future. I still have my reservations about being able to satisfy a blogging schedule, but I hope to remain a more active presence. This being said, we have to rebuild this wunderground community and continue its mature attitude. Attendance has dropped here on the blog, but with the advent of winter, I hope to see that rise. There are a lot of exciting things happening globally in the earth sciences.

The last few months I really have noticed a slight change in my personal growth. Not only I have strengthened existing friendships, I have been able to break my rigidness through set schedules and structure. I have also reflected on my career paths and each day I find myself pulling away slightly from the meteorological field. This may come as a shock to many, but I just see forecasting as more of a hobby. Instead I find myself drawn to the physiological science and research behind other aspects of the environment along with concepts in the renewable energy field. Perhaps I'll become an energy sector meteorologists. My degree will certainly be atmospheric sciences, but I find my graduate work may find itself in a related field. I am very excited by the propositions I have been given in attendance at an ivy leaguer school and where I end up as far as a career is mystifying to consider. If I can continue to use my atmospheric knowledge to further advance society through science and technological advances, then this is where I am drawn.

My upcoming blogs will certainly be shorter than they have in the past, but I hope to offer new perspectives in meteorology by taking a more scientific to understanding the science behind this young science along with taking a look at what may be somewhat controversial concepts on the east sciences and alternative energy. As I advance my studies, I hope to present some of this knowledge in an understandable and relatable manner, because the earth science is certainly important to the future of modern society.

Feel free at any time to shoot me a wunderground mail with any questions or concerns. Also for those looking to follow my 24hr forecasts, please note I write forecasts 24 hours in advance for the Harrisburg area on my new twitter. Link. Please feel free to follow my feed for up to date forecasts. Also one can find information located on my Facebook at Link. But wunderground will always been my number one source for weather events. Please spread the word to help aid our community regain attendance especially as we enter the winter months.


(Fig.1 - Temperature Departures Last 30 Days)

July has been hot. It is as simple as that to describe the last 30 days. In fact a majority of the contiquous United States will end up with positive anomalies with the center of the heat over the drought-stricken land of Texas and Oklahoma with departures upwards of +8F. Much of this heat is courtesy of favorable upper level weather patterns featuring abnormal ridges over the southern United States pushing heights to near obscene values. Many people think of heat waves here in the eastern United States to be in response to Bermuda highs that favor a clockwise flow allowing the low and upper level winds to be out of the southwest bringing in heat and humidity from the Gulf of Mexico up through New York State or so. But in general heat waves with values over 100F for a majority of the continental United States, the pattern is slightly different.


(Fig.2 - 500mb on July 20)

The height of the heat wave across the United States was around July 20 as century degree readings occurred across many central climatological recording sites. Note the 500mb pattern features intense ridging across the southern United States with high pressure in control. These types of setups are much more productive at producing real temperatures at record values. Note also the 588mb contour located well up to almost the US/Canadian border which certainly signals a memorable heat wave. This weather pattern corresponds directly to rainfall patterns across the United States.


(Fig.3 - Precipitation Departures Last 30 Days)

The precipitation departures highlight convective trends common to the summer months due to the lack of middle latitude cyclones. Precipitation during the summer is often connected to localized patterns with convection. As you can see their are terrible drought conditions across Texas and Oklahoma. Both precipitation and temperature patterns are certainly cross-connected. The moisture condition of the ground highly impacts temperature trends as the heating capacity greatly rises with drier ground allowing temperatures to soar. Wetter ground conditions prevent temperatures from rising to their full potential. Also given the relatively stagnant 500mb pattern, this explains the lack of precipitation across Texas given the anticyclone's position.


(Fig.4 - Precipitation Departures Last 365 Days(

Closer to home, precipitation trends have been highly localized with many areas in central and northeastern Pennsylvania receiving quite plentiful rainfall. This pattern looks to continue with highly convective precipitation chances ahead in the coming week or two. Looking at upper level weather patterns it does appear that a negative NAO regime and shift in the MJO will favor perhaps a cooler pattern. Long term GFS/ECMWF outlooks have been highlighting a toughing pattern across the northeast, but recent runs have backed off a bit.


(Fig. 5 - 7/31/2011 12z ECWMF 240hr prognostic)

Looking ahead at this week's weather a few cold fronts will move through region with isolated chances at severe weather including as soon as Monday with damaging winds the primary threat especially for New England down through eastern Pennsylvania. SPC highlights a slight outlook. Precipitation chances will occur every few days allowing some areas that have been dry to get some additional rainfall. Temperatures will remain at or slightly above normal, finally giving us a relief from the 90F heat. Although southern Maryland may continue to feel the heat especially towards Washington DC as they will be closer to the higher thicknesses.

Many eyes are shifting towards the Atlantic as a tropical wave from Africa will be approaching the northern Islands in the coming days. Current models show varying predictions, but recent 12z runs have shifted a bit farther north only scraping the Bahamas. I expect 91L to probably becomes named in the next 24 hours or so as it develops a low level circulation. Given the -NAO pattern and approaching trough along with climatological odds courtesy of the time of year, I expect soon to be Emily to swing away from the US coast well offshore to pose any threat. That being said it is always important to monitor forecast changes. I would say odds for a east coast hit/fish storm are 20/80. We shall see though as so far 91L has kept farther south on the forecast track than expected. I am less confident on the fish storm forecast than I was yesterday. If the forecast changes, I will be sure to update. Also given the state of the atmosphere the majority of the development will be taking place, I do not expect this to rapidly intensify or become too strong.

All in all cooler temperatures closer to climatological norms with several chances of precipitation associated with approaching cold fronts can be expected for the Northeast for the next seven days.

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

Follow my 24hr forecasts on Twitter... Link and Facebook... Link.

"Here north of Harrisburg 2011 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 10
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 10
Tornado Watches- 3
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 33

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 8
Flood Warnings- 5
Flash Flood Warnings- 7
Current Monthly Precipitation- 7.88in
January Precipitation- 1.12in
February Precipitation- 2.74in
March Precipitation- 6.43in
April Precipitation- 10.47in
May Precipitation- 7.87in
June Precipitation- 4.57in
July Precipitation- 4.09in
August Precipitation- 7.88in
Yearly Precipitation- 45.17in

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 4
Excessive Heat Warnings- 2
Excessive Heat Watches- 1
90F days- 24
100F days- 2
Highest Temperature- 104F - 7/22/2011

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Not terribly much here in Lancaster either. We only had 0.52" inches of rain, yet just a little north in harrisburg they had over 1" of rain. That is so wrong! We need the rain though. NO Flooding.

Just an FYI:


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NEW JERSEY HAS ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

BERKS COUNTY

LAST NIGHT 2-8" OF RAIN FELL IN THE WATCHED AREA, AND THE RAIN MAY BE GETTING HEAVY AGAIN TODAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLASH FLOODING!

Just a quick little FYI!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Blizzard92:
A couple small mudslides and rockslides here along Blue Mountain with part of the Rockville Bridge closed and lots of mountain roads nearly washed away.


what side of the Blue Mountain are you? the south side? Are you off of the road that goes over the mountain (Blue Mountain whatever?)? I drove into Hershey for church and didn't see much except for some basements in Campbelltown getting pumped out. I heard the roundabout at the square is a mess
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Hi Blizz and all, yeah, I saw your area had those heavy showers and T. Storms on radar last night, very late, but I wouldn't have guessed 3-4" WOW! I'll be driving past you Blizz on Wed. morning, about 11:30 or so. On my way to the Blacksburg VA. area to visit my sister, then on Thurs leaving her to drive to Orlando Fl. for a wedding on Sat. Then on to Delrey Beach for several days. Hope we don't run into any bad tropical weather while down there. LT. (Wound up with 0.85" of rain over night, toal for whole precip. event, 1.00")
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not much in the gage 0.2 in

took arms and shoulders up to JSMC yesterday looked like 2-3 ft surf but face plants got them. Weather was nice till the late afternoon P. Today cloudy. Not much viewing time for the stars last week.
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2769
A couple small mudslides and rockslides here along Blue Mountain with part of the Rockville Bridge closed and lots of mountain roads nearly washed away.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
Good morning. Wow, did the rain come down hard between 12am and 2am. I got 3.55" between that time. From 11pm-12am it was 0.36. A total of 4.28" of rain since yesterday afternoon. Most of my rain came after 11pm. @ 830pm I had posted that I got 0.31".

Yea what a mess. I saw a CoCoRaHS report just south of me with 6.92in of rain! Lots of empty cars sitting around my township this morning after getting stuck in waters last night.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Good morning. Wow, did the rain come down hard between 12am and 2am. I got 3.55" between that time. From 11pm-12am it was 0.36. A total of 4.28" of rain since yesterday afternoon. Most of my rain came after 11pm. @ 830pm I had posted that I got 0.31".
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Hopefully everyone stays safe tonight in the Linglestown/Hershey area...I'm going to try to get some sleep now as it's been a long and interesting night.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
I also forgot to mention that we actually lost power up here for a minute. I assumed it was because of the flooding & rockslides to the south.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
More heavy rain and anomalously high PWATs approaching from the west...refer to post #93 for the updating map.

They're running into an area of around 100 j/kg of SBCAPE so the rain should start to taper off before it gets over the mountains (hopefully).
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
Quoting wunderstorm87:
Blizz you have 5-6" and I only live 10-15 miles north of you and I have 1.1". I just can't believe how often you've got hit with the worst of the heavy rain.

Many areas probably didn't even get a half inch tonight based on radar estimates.

Yeah it is terrible here. Took me 1.5hrs to get 5mi and believe me I tried a lot of different roads. Some businesses/restaurants are surrounded by water with people stuck inside unable to get to their cars and such. Lots of cars stuck and one road I was on was closed due to a rockslide.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Blizz you have 5-6" and I only live 10-15 miles north of you and I have 1.1". I just can't believe how often you've got hit with the worst of the heavy rain.

Many areas probably didn't even get a half inch tonight based on radar estimates.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
Quoting Blizzard92:
********Severe flash flooding here in Linglestown with 5.44in of rain in the last 12 hours mostly occuring in the last two hours. Worst flooding I have witnessed with widespread road closures and water rescues.

Incredible:

Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
********Severe flash flooding here in Linglestown with 5.44in of rain in the last 12 hours mostly occuring in the last two hours. Worst flooding I have witnessed with widespread road closures and water rescues.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1257 AM EDT SUN AUG 7 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN DAUPHIN COUNTY...
LEBANON COUNTY...

* UNTIL 400 AM EDT...

* AT 1254 AM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED FLASH
FLOODING FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER LEBANON AND SOUTHERN DAUPHIN
COUNTIES. SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE THAT 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN OVER THE WARNED AREA.
AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH AROUND 230 AM.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ANNVILLE...
CORNWALL...LEBANON...MYERSTOWN...PALMYRA...COLONIA L PARK...
HERSHEY...HUMMELSTOWN...LINGLESTOWN AND MIDDLETOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. NEVER ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR IN AN
AUTOMOBILE. TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN!

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
Here in Stamford CT. we've received 0.15" so far with another nice batch coming in from the SW(you guys) in Eastern PA.!
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We just hit an inch of rain here. I see some spots on the north side of Harrisburg got 2"+ and KMUI just hit 2" as well.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
no thunder here, but some rain finally. I have gotten 0.31" so far. not even close to what you have gotten Blizz
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Very impressive PWATs:

Combine that with SBCAPE around 1000j/kg and you have some thunderstorms with very high rain rates.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
Quoting Blizzard92:
A burst of heavy rain with thunder here. Now up to 1.00in of rain even.

That thunderstorm seems to be rotating a little. I took a peak at the ESRH and it's around 200m^2/s^2. Although very unlikely, I have seen brief tornadoes in set ups like this.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
A burst of heavy rain with thunder here. Now up to 1.00in of rain even.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Up to .71in of rain here so far.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
what happened to the rain? I got 0.17" from an earlier shower, but not much is on the radar
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The rain appears to be slowing down or stopping at least for now here. 0.84" so far.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
Steady rain here currently with .22in so far.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Well, That is a good thing. The more rain we can get now would be great. As long as it is spread out over the area and over a period of time. I am tired of seeing everything the ugly brown that everything is. I would really like to see some more green and i am hoping that the rain that is comming will be able to give us some rain that will help turn the color of the lawn.
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Quoting GoldsboroPA:
2-3" That is a lot of rain. I hope we do not get any flooding!

It doesn't seem like flooding should be much of a concern. The rain will be spread out during a 12-24 hour period (mainly). Based on the 12 hour flash flood guidance, it would take 4-5" of rain (over 12 hours) to cause flooding.



Also I think most areas will get around an inch or less. Areas of 2"+ are possible locally, however.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
2-3" That is a lot of rain. I hope we do not get any flooding!
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Quoting Blizzard92:

Saturday looks pretty wet with some areas getting 2-3in of rain in scattered showers and thunderstorms. PWATs rising near +2SD.


Crap. Oh well, maybe the following weekend. She comes out to visit on weekends (still works during the week in New Jersey) and we were looking for something new to do together. I can go whenever I want until August 29th when my new job & school starts. Want to check out Lake Marburg in Codorus State Park. It looks awsome there, very fishing friendly with some trophies. We'll be catch & release though.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
Quoting MariettaMoon:


Nooooooo! Supposed to take my wife fishing at Lake Marburg Saturday evening. She's dying to try out her new pink fishing rod that lights up when you reel it in.

Saturday looks pretty wet with some areas getting 2-3in of rain in scattered showers and thunderstorms. PWATs rising near +2SD.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Quoting wunderstorm87:
Wow the 18z GFS progs nearly 2" of rain for KMDT Saturday afternoon & overnight. It's probably a bit overdone but even an inch of rain would really help the dry spots in central & eastern PA.


Nooooooo! Supposed to take my wife fishing at Lake Marburg Saturday evening. She's dying to try out her new pink fishing rod that lights up when you reel it in.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
Quoting weathergeek5:
Well I hear a La Nina is coming back for this winter...


Awsome freakin' portrait!

ENSO-neutral is expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere for fall 2011, with ENSO-neutral or La Niña equally likely thereafter.

Way too far out ahead but I know that neutral and weak La Nina both raise the chances for above average snowall at Philadelphia. That would be a good place to start for us, but very bad news for the drought stricken southern plains.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
Quoting wunderstorm87:
Wow the 18z GFS gives KMDT nearly 2" of rain Saturday afternoon & overnight. It's probably a bit overdone but even an inch of rain would really help the dry spots in central & eastern PA.

Wow, I cannot wait to see how much rainfall the seasonal total is this year for the Harrisburg area. I am already almost at 38in, which is pretty much near our seasonal average.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Wow the 18z GFS progs nearly 2" of rain for KMDT Saturday afternoon & overnight. It's probably a bit overdone but even an inch of rain would really help the dry spots in central & eastern PA.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
0.25in of rain here from yesterday
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
from the looks of the forecast for the next 5 days we are in a crappy pattern
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Well I hear a La Nina is coming back for this winter...
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
Visiting back in Hamilton NJ for a few days. Nice steady rain fell overnight. 0.70" total yesterday & early this morning.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
Quoting originalLT:
MM, click on his blog, check out the one before his current one that is posted, he explained what happened. BTW, again I received only .10" of rain tonight.


Wow, that sounds like it got bad. Glad he's back.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
Tropical Storm Emily poses a major catastrophic threat to western Haiti where they have cut 98% of their trees with 10" - 20" of rain possible. They still have many people living in tent cities there as well. Could get ugly if they do get that kind of rain. Maybe they'll get lucky and avoid the brunt.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
0.48 in here about 0.55 in Bradley Beach for last night and today

overcast
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2769
I got 0.08" of rain yesterday. Hey, every little bit will help the grass come back and keep me from watering the garden for a day or two.

I see TS Emily is forecast to come up the coast a bit then head out before NC. That's long range. These storms have a mind of their own and you never know 3-5 days out.
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MM, click on his blog, check out the one before his current one that is posted, he explained what happened. BTW, again I received only .10" of rain tonight.
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NORTHEAST ALL-TIME RECORD WARM MONTHS IN JULY 2011

I suspect that NWS Upton (NYC) hasn't released its July monthly record reports. I believe at least Newark NJ should be on this list. A few other offices have not released them either but I don't expect record warmest in those areas anyway; NWS State College being one of them.

Previous record in parenthesis...

Portland ME: 72.7F (72.4F in 1974)
Trenton NJ: 80.9F (80.5F in 1955 & 2010)
Philadelphia PA: 82.4F (82.1F in 1994)
Atlantic City NJ: 81.0F (79.8F in 2010)
Baltimore MD: 81.7F (81.5F in 1872, 1995 & 2010)
Dulles VA: 81.0F (79.7F in 1993)
Washington DC: 84.5F (83.1F in 1993 & 2010)
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
Quoting originalLT:
As I just said on Sully's blog a few mins. ago, looks like my area, Stamford CT. will finally get some mod/heavy showers in about an hour or so. Well atleast i looks that way now, they've been missing me by every direction possible!


Yeah, what's up with Sully? I saw he posted on RickyRood's blog today? He's returned from the dark side of the moon?
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
As I just said on Sully's blog a few mins. ago, looks like my area, Stamford CT. will finally get some mod/heavy showers in about an hour or so. Well atleast i looks that way now, they've been missing me by every direction possible!
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What happened to the rain in Ohio and Kentucky? Just a few sprinkles so far today
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Well Blizz, just read your latest update. True, I know I have not been on site as much as usual. Busy summer...Now that 'the season' is starting will be checking in more. Very dry here in SO MD. Storms have come in but missed our neighborhood. Not to worry about posting, there are some long time followers that are very good on here..... Take care, enjoy the ride and stop in when you can!
Oh, do post about TS Emily....Where is she going??
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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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