Observation Blog...

By: Zachary Labe , 1:57 PM GMT on May 08, 2011

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"Current Temperature"


"Current Dewpoint"


"Current Surface Map and Weekly History of Jet Stream Position"


"Regional Radar"


"Regional Satellite"


"Regional Advisories"


"Soil Moisture Anomalies and 5-day Precipitation Amounts from Hydro Prediction Center"


"Severe Weather Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"


"12hr Estimated Precipitation"


"Forecast Max Temperatures"


"Forecast Min Temperature"


"Forecast Weather at 2pm"


"Current Storm Reports"


"Fire Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"

(All maps courtesy of NOAA and Penn State Meteo.)

"Forecast Model Links"
-NAM model 12z...Link
-GFS model 12z...Link
-NMM model 12z...Link
-SREF model 9z...Link

"Severe Weather Links"
-Atmospheric Soundings Skewt T charts...Link
-SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pages...Link
-Public Spotter Reports for State College NWS...Link
-Severe Weather Model Forecast indices...Link
-Severe Weather Parameter Definitions...Link

"Flooding Links"
-Automated Pennsylvania Rainfall Recording Stations...Link
-Flash Flooding Guidance...Link
-HPC Forecasts for Excessive Rainfall...Link
-Hydrology Predictions for Lakes, Rivers, and Streams...Link

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

"Here north of Harrisburg 2011 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 8
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 7
Tornado Watches- 3
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 23

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 7
Flood Warnings- 5
Flash Flood Warnings- 5
Monthly Precipitation- 3.68in
January Precipitation- 1.12in
February Precipitation- 2.74in
March Precipitation- 6.43in
April Precipitation- 10.47in
May Precipitation- 7.87in
June Precipitation- 3.68in
Yearly Precipitation- 32.31in

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 2
Excessive Heat Warnings- 0
90degree days- 6
Highest Temperature- 96 - 6/08

Mammatus (Blizzard92)
Mammatus here in the Linglestown area. I was shocked, absolutely incredible!!!
Mammatus

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496. originalLT
12:57 AM GMT on June 20, 2011
Looks like a pretty good swirl of clouds centered over Eastern Ohio, I guess it's an upper low? It's moving ESE and appears to be dragging some precip into PA. and West VA.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
495. Zachary Labe
5:55 PM GMT on June 19, 2011
Quoting Stormfront:
True Blizzard, but ice coverage that exists is extremely thicker than normal.

Thanks for the note. The good thing is that snow and ice can recover even in the worst of times, in the blink of an eye. It only takes on month to completely change levels. Usually by October, though, is when we can determine what affect the levels will have on our winter.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
494. Stormfront
5:39 PM GMT on June 19, 2011
True Blizzard, but ice coverage that exists is extremely thicker than normal.
Member Since: March 3, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 125
493. Zachary Labe
11:01 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Quoting wxgeek723:


Well considering I'm only in high school, that presents a challenge, haha.

I know I ask this every time in the June-July beginning of summer period Blizz, but do you have any early intel on wintertime? Lol.

It is critical to see what happens in the equitorial pacific during the next 1-2 months. At this point it could really go either way. On the bad side though, snow and ice levels are way down in the northern hemisphere currently.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
492. wxgeek723
7:49 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Quoting MariettaMoon:


Maybe you should work on getting out of Jersey like we did.


Well considering I'm only in high school, that presents a challenge, haha.

I know I ask this every time in the June-July beginning of summer period Blizz, but do you have any early intel on wintertime? Lol.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3713
491. MariettaMoon
2:36 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
For the rest of June, looks like the Mid-Atlantic will see above average temps while New England sees near to above average temps. Near to above average precip for most of the Mid-Atlantic & New England.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
490. originalLT
12:57 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Yeah, P451, I saw those two cells merging over the Clifton NJ area and wondered if the wind flow differences between the two cells might spark a tornado spin-up, but I guess it did not. Also in those late afternoon storms on Friday, I had plenty of thunder but very little rain,the heavy part of the cells just went by to my South. It was pouring on I95, but I live about 4 miles North of that road and it just missed me. Lt Stamford CT.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
489. goofyrider
11:39 PM GMT on June 17, 2011
Nasty small cells here about 0.21 in in 10-15 min lots of lightning, one house(trees close by) hit sm fire. Second one fried their ac. Several other alarms.

MM it will be a good move for you in the long term.
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2936
487. MariettaMoon
9:18 PM GMT on June 17, 2011
Quoting goofyrider:
@MM EH Only thing nice out there is the smell of fertilizer. :-))
Spotty showers still trying to work to the sea.


You can't take your compliment back now.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
486. MariettaMoon
9:17 PM GMT on June 17, 2011
Quoting wxgeek723:
Mother nature was really setting off the flash bombs last night. Some real heavy downpours, but nothing severe. 2" from those storms last night.

Looks like with TT/MM in central PA and P451 in NY, I'm the last remaining active off-season contributor from Jersey, lol.


Maybe you should work on getting out of Jersey like we did.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
485. goofyrider
7:17 PM GMT on June 17, 2011
@MM EH Only thing nice out there is the smell of fertilizer. :-))
Spotty showers still trying to work to the sea.
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2936
484. wxgeek723
5:19 PM GMT on June 17, 2011
Mother nature was really setting off the flash bombs last night. Some real heavy downpours, but nothing severe. 2" from those storms last night.

Looks like with TT/MM in central PA and P451 in NY, I'm the last remaining active off-season contributor from Jersey, lol.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3713
483. MariettaMoon
3:52 PM GMT on June 17, 2011
Quoting goofyrider:
Last night to 0700 = 0.51 in.
Beautiful moon on the 15 - 16 and morning air smells like hay after nightly rains.


Oh, goofy, thanks for the compliment, but you didn't have to ;)
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
482. goofyrider
3:26 PM GMT on June 17, 2011
Last night to 0700 = 0.51 in.
Beautiful moon on the 15 - 16 and morning air smells like hay after nightly rains.
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2936
481. originalLT
2:37 PM GMT on June 17, 2011
We had 2.10" of rain this morning from that cluster of showers and T. Storms that came thru my area. LT Stamford CT.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
480. Zachary Labe
1:13 PM GMT on June 17, 2011
0.19in of rain here yesterday although a valley or two to my north had radar estimates of 2-3in.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
479. MariettaMoon
1:50 AM GMT on June 16, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:

Sounds very nice! Let us know how it works through the summer!


Will do.

Bradford PA down to 37F this morning.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
478. Zachary Labe
2:41 PM GMT on June 15, 2011
Quoting MariettaMoon:
lol listener. It's been gorgeous with abundant sunshine down this way.

Cool low of 53F this morning. 56F yesterday morning with a high of 74F. I had built an old fashioned Stevenson Screen last summer and finally have a decent place to put it out back here now. Just a basic wireless thermometer in it with a min/max base station for now.

The shelter is double louvered on all four sides and painted in high gloss white on a 5 foot post also painted white. Also have 2 roofs with half inch gaps between them, the upper roof overhangs the lower roof by about 2 inches on each side. Built a door with locks and everything, 9" stands for the sensors so they sit exactly halfway between the floor and the lower roof inside with a total sensor height from the ground of 5'11". It actually works pretty well...

This link is a good example of what I built, minus the metal pipe with fan, it works really well without it. Good airflow...

Link

Sounds very nice! Let us know how it works through the summer!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
477. MariettaMoon
12:39 PM GMT on June 15, 2011
lol listener. It's been gorgeous with abundant sunshine down this way.

Cool low of 53F this morning. 56F yesterday morning with a high of 74F. I had built an old fashioned Stevenson Screen last summer and finally have a decent place to put it out back here now. Just a basic wireless thermometer in it with a min/max base station for now.

The shelter is double louvered on all four sides and painted in high gloss white on a 5 foot post also painted white. Also have 2 roofs with half inch gaps between them, the upper roof overhangs the lower roof by about 2 inches on each side. Built a door with locks and everything, 9" stands for the sensors so they sit exactly halfway between the floor and the lower roof inside with a total sensor height from the ground of 5'11". It actually works pretty well...

This link is a good example of what I built, minus the metal pipe with fan, it works really well without it. Good airflow...

Link
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
476. TheF1Man
4:06 AM GMT on June 15, 2011
listener isn't that the moon? I've seen it before as well around dusk. unless it's aliens of course
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 685
475. listenerVT
12:43 AM GMT on June 15, 2011
Rare orange orb visible low on the horizon!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5595
474. originalLT
10:28 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
Had some late afternoon showers here in Stamford CT. , just enough to cancel my evening tennis match. (My first since my rotator cuff surgery last Nov.) I've practiced a couple of times, but this was going to be a real match in the "50 and over" league that I am in. Oh well, maybe Thurs. night. Only about a tenth of an inch of rain fell. The showers seems to be rotating in around a low that is centered just off the Mass. coast. They are generally moving from North to South or SSE.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
473. MariettaMoon
11:26 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Those two tornadoes occured right next to each other. The EF1 began 9.7 mi to my south and the EF0 began 10.1 mi to my south. I believe the tornadoes were on the front edge of the storm.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
472. wunderstorm87
10:03 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Numerous weak tornadoes appear to be the theme this year across PA. That's better than just a couple strong ones I suppose.

Beautiful weather today with dew points only in the low to mid 50s and a not too warm high of 75F.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
471. wunderstorm87
9:58 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
public information statement
national weather service state college pa
523 pm edt mon jun 13 2011

... multiple tornadoes confirmed on june 12 2011...

... tornado confirmed near windsor in york county pennsylvania...

location ... windsor in york county pennsylvania
date ... june 12 2011
estimated time ... 325 pm edt
maximum ef - scale rating ... ef1
estimated maximum wind speed ... 90 mph
maximum path width ... 100 yards
path length ... 1 3/4 mile long
beginning lat/lon ... tbd
ending lat/lon ... tbd
* fatalities ... 0
* injuries ... 0

* the information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the event(s) and publication in nws
storm data.

... summary...
the national weather service in state college pa has confirmed a
tornado near windsor in york county pennsylvania on june 12 2011.

a national weather survey team and staff from the ema office
conducted a storm survey today. a weak ef1 tornado touched down
in east windsor at 325 pm ... near state route 624 and maryland
ave. the storm lifted just east pleasant grove road near state
route 74. six homes were affected ... with trees falling near or on
them. overall ... 50 trees were damaged or downed. most of the trees
were fell in a north to south direction.

------------------------------------------------- -----

... tornado confirmed near springvale in york county pennsylvania...

location ... springvale in york county pennsylvania
date ... june 12 2011
estimated time ... 330 pm edt
maximum ef - scale rating ... ef0
estimated maximum wind speed ... 75 mph
maximum path width ... 50 yards
path length ... 3/4 mile long
beginning lat/lon ... tbd
ending lat/lon ... tbd

* fatalities ... 0
* injuries ... 0

* the information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the event(s) and publication in nws
storm data.

... summary...
the national weather service in state college pa has confirmed a
tornado near springvale in york county pennsylvania on june 12
2011.

a national weather service survey team and staff from the ema
office conducted a storm survey today. an ef0 torndo touched
down at 330 pm 1/4 mile northeast of springvale ... east of red
lion. the tornado lifted off just south of bahnsmill road at 331
pm. a couple of homes were affected ... with one tree down on a
house. a total of 15 trees were damaged or downed.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
470. Zachary Labe
4:22 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Beautiful day here today with current temperature of 68F!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
469. MariettaMoon
4:18 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
I did take a walk to check out the cellar and it doesn't look all that safe down there lol. Better off dealing with a tornado here on the third floor.

Took a ride around town, down to Columbia, Wrightsville and Hallam yesterday after the storm. Didn't see much besides the usual clumps of leaves and flash flooding that occurs after a heavy storm. There was a small tree down in somebody's yard but impossible to tell if it was from Sunday's or Saturday's storm.

This week looks gorgeous, windows open, won't run the AC until Friday or Saturday when the humidity starts coming up again.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
468. goofyrider
3:34 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
morn p

Lots of sensors around now so it is likely that location within 10-15 klicks . funny no felt reports.
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2936
465. goofyrider
1:34 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
sprinkles here and less than 0.1 yesterday taking long time for the front to push out to sea.

TT hope you have a good shelter area see link for phone app and other stuff

http://earthquake-report.com/
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2936
464. anduril
9:39 PM GMT on June 12, 2011
That was some seriously impressive rain we got today in the camp hill area. It poured very, very strongly for about 30mins. Was pretty impressive to watch - the parking lot at work was basically a pool.

Sadly, the sunroof on my car was open during the entire event. It was very, very wet :(
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 173
463. originalLT
9:03 PM GMT on June 12, 2011
Glad you are safe MM/TT.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
462. wunderstorm87
8:55 PM GMT on June 12, 2011
A microburst was confirmed in Lebanon county from yesterday. It wasn't a tornado.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
461. wunderstorm87
8:23 PM GMT on June 12, 2011
The tornado warning for southern York county was the 37th one issued by State College so far this year.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
460. MariettaMoon
7:43 PM GMT on June 12, 2011
Thanks LT. I have looked at that site before, pretty neat.

8.00"/Hr rainfall rate travelling southeast along the west bank of the Susquehanna on the York County side.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
459. MariettaMoon
7:38 PM GMT on June 12, 2011
Amazingly I saw almost no wind outside my window. Loudest thunder I've ever heard in my life just reverberates here in the immediate river valley. Thunder has been in continuous rumble without as much as a half a second break for a good 25 minutes now. I thought I was hearing a tornado in the distance. I don't think I've ever been in a Tornado Warning before, and now it's 2 in as many days lol. Might take a trip in the car around town with the camera and over to Hallam area where there was a possible tornado which is 4 or 5 miles to my southwest.

Blizz and all you other LSV'ers, this is you guys doing this, like a welcome to the group hazing right?

I must admit, I was a little nervous this time, more than yesterday probably because my wife was here yesterday and I was trying to remain calm for her.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
458. wunderstorm87
7:35 PM GMT on June 12, 2011
Very strong rotation to the east of Windsor right now...the strongest I've seen all day.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
457. wunderstorm87
7:22 PM GMT on June 12, 2011
The rotation now is over Hallam. The box includes you (MM) but the greatest threat now is to the SW of you.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
456. Zachary Labe
7:06 PM GMT on June 12, 2011
ABC27 just said a viewer called in frantic with a tornado touchdown in Marietta!!! Not sure about how much truth there is to that, but look out!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
455. MariettaMoon
6:54 PM GMT on June 12, 2011
Jesus christmas, Tornado Warning #2!
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
454. wunderstorm87
6:53 PM GMT on June 12, 2011
Wow the last frame just strengthened the rotation considerably. Tornado warning for you again MM/TT!
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
453. wunderstorm87
6:46 PM GMT on June 12, 2011
This storm is strengthening again and now showing some weak rotation. Nothing compared to yesterday though.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
452. Zachary Labe
6:40 PM GMT on June 12, 2011
0.78in of rain here. That is about it.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
451. lawntonlookirs
6:35 PM GMT on June 12, 2011
We just had some hail about 1/4 inch in size here in Lawnton, 4 miles East of Harrisburg. Some heavy rain an one lightning sighting so far. Looks like it is about over. About 1/2 inch of rain.
Member Since: April 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 31
450. wunderstorm87
6:22 PM GMT on June 12, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:
Appears to be one of those storms where the radar is much worse looking than reality. Very little thunder/lightning here with light winds. Just some heavy rain...

I noticed that there was very little lightning as well. That's usually a sign of the storm weakening.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
449. Zachary Labe
6:18 PM GMT on June 12, 2011
Appears to be one of those storms where the radar is much worse looking than reality. Very little thunder/lightning here with light winds. Just some heavy rain...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
448. lawntonlookirs
6:14 PM GMT on June 12, 2011
Looks like the pink is right over you now blizz and will be here in Lawnton in a few minutes. Rasberry should bee getting is in about 20 minutes
Member Since: April 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 31
447. wunderstorm87
6:11 PM GMT on June 12, 2011
Reports of quarter to golf ball sized hail near New Buffalo....at one point GR2analyst's max hail size was 3.04" near New Buffalo.

Just 0.45" of rain here as the worst part of the storm remained about 5 miles to my southwest (near New Buffalo/Halifax).
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
446. TheRasberryPatch
6:04 PM GMT on June 12, 2011
With the rain yesterday evening and overnight I got another 1.05" of rain that makes 2.30" of rain since Friday evening.

Looks like another line coming our way. I just got a text message saying the severe thunderstorm was cancelled for perry county and NW Lebanon. Looking at the radar i see reds and pinks coming my way. Huh
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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