Multi-day threat of severe weather for the eastern United States...
Here in Pennsylvania, educational reforms are the hot bed of discussion, partly due to proposed budget cuts from the political roundtop at our capitol Harrisburg. Obviously cuts in any sort of institution such as education are typically felt with detrimental side effects. But the problem in education stems from something more than poor standarized test scores of public schools not making the grade/cut. The importance of education is certainly not of the highest regard in our society. Looking at where we have come in the last 100 years as average life expectancies rise through the 80s, both medically and technologically we have come a long way. In fact if we were to take away certain guidelines and/or moralic type codes, we have the capabilities to perform near science fiction type actions. Since the human genome project, we have been able to completely map the genetic code for our uniqueness separating humans from animals. We are on the verge of pharmaceutical individuality where medications will be developed based on each of our own set of genetic makeup. We have the capability to develop and utilize fission technology to harness the sun's energy to serve as an overarching power source. We have the capability for AI and soon the knowledge to map the brain through new neurologic techniques. We are on the verge of discovering microbial life in our solar system, which will change biology as we know it. We live in the era of the fastest growth of technological advancement that the human species has ever seen. I fully expect to live to see some of these accomplishments. But we cannot get there without the core of our society.
Certainly, the United States is based on blue collar jobs and will not be able to function without these necessities. College is not for everyone. The growing popularity of technical schools is certainly on the upswing. But the problem stems from early in primary school. As we all are of the young age in our first few years of grade school, our brains are molded rapidly to new concepts. We finally realize that we have our own set of opinions and ideas. The frontal lobe continues to rapidly grow in information. These years are critical. Unfortunately, modern society puts anything but the focus on the importance of schooling. There is little to no reward for literary, scientific, mathematical excellence. Instilled at a young age should be a set agenda. These years are where habits are developed. Homework should be done directly afterschool, organization of schedule to prevent procrastination, workbooks over the summer and weekend, constant drilling of simple facts at school. If the focus of education would be of higher regard by media, our society would be a better place.
I do not propose that everyone needs to be a brilliant, college bound student. Education is simply more than this concept. It instills moralic lessons and a better understanding of people and culture. Not only does society have little focus on learning, but it also focuses it primarily on the wealthier classes. Poverish, limited resource communities, are the ones facing ever increasing dropouts in high school and constant failing state guidlines for testing. Could this be analogous with higher crime rates in lower income communities?
Why is the question... Why is it cool to skip school? Why is cool to say rules are meant to be broken? Why is it cool not to do your homework? Yes, these early years are about discovering yourself, but each generation's most important years are these building block ages. And it seems all of these problems stem back from one's instilled parental guidance and support system. Society needs structure. Society needs knowledge. Society needs achievers. Where would be without Einstein's theory of relativity; where would we be without the functions of public sanitation; where would we be without the sanctions of musical excellence? These polar concepts derive from a society focused on the importance of a well-rounded education, an education based on the understanding of human nature and growth. Educational reform should not be stirred from the agendas of politicians, but by those of us looking out for the well-fare of our future. And soon, long into the future, hopefully we can reflect without a nodding sigh.
On a more related note, I just want to take a quick look at the recent wet spell across much of the eastern United States particularily here in central Pennsylvania where we are on target for the wettest April on record. Looking back at my CoCoRaHS statistics, I have recorded 5 periods of no rainfall. Measurements for rainfall accoring to CoCoRaHS standards fit a 6am to 6am 24hr period. I have recorded 7.64in of rain this month with nearly 18in of rain for my yearly total. These totals are well above norms by a fair 5in+.
Looking at the current montly soil moisture anomalies, we can easily note the high percentages across Pennsylvania and New York State. Also note the abundance of moisture across California. This is in correspondance with our wet patten as an unusually active jet stream has allowed several strong Pacific storms to parade across the nation. This is also in connection with the active severe weather across much of the continental United States.
You can note the abundance of tornadic activity this Spring is well above the 75th percentile expected means. The majority of the severe weather this season has occured along and east of the Mississippi River.
This heightened activity can directly be correlated with the La Nina, which continues to weaken across the equitorial Pacific. I like to think of all of the global weather patterns as a giant fluid closed system. Therefore this concept is analogous to the idea of one act of pollution affects an entire watershed right into the following ocean. This active northern jet stream dominated weather pattern appears to continue with a parade of middle latitude cyclones across the continental United States although subtle changes in the ridge and trough axis will be noted. A -NAO looks to be full fledge towards early May favoring a trough over the eastern United States. This will likely lead to a cool and wet beginning of the month; definitely not what the farmers wanted to hear who are still trying to plow their fields. In fact the 384hr GFS run prints out a whopping 4.75in of precipitation through the end of the run for KMDT. This coming week will feature several chances of diurnal convective precipitation instances. A cold front will be approaching from the Tennessee River valley by Thursday carving a path of severe weather across the eastern United States. Ahead of the cold front is a stationary front drapped across just south of the interstate 80 corridor keeping cooler and cloudier weather across areas to the north in New England with scattered rain showers dropping less than .5in of QPF. To the south is a moist, sunny, and dry atmosphere across Virginia and Maryland with a well capped atmosphere as H85 thermals remain relatively warm. In the middle is a turbulent region with daily threats of precipitation and changing temperatures. This is along the warm front or stationary front for that matter.
"Severe Weather Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"
Much of the region especially across parts of Pennsylvania, New York, Maryland, and Virginia remain at risk for severe weather during the next few days as winds aloft begin to increase with a turbulent low level jet ahead of the slow moving cold front. Rising PWATs near 1.75in will aid in the addition of a flash flooding/heavy rain threat especially towards Wednesday and Thursday. CAPE levels will be rising to near 2000 j/kg especially towards Wednesday and Thursday across the region as high resolution guidance suggests the rapid approach of a squall line. GFS/EURO/NAM guidance remain at odds as far as timing for this squall line.
The NAM shows a strong signal towards Thursday of a rapidly advancing squall line with the threat of damaging winds. The GFS is much faster indicating the severe threat for the Middle Atlantic and Northeast occuring during the unfavorable hours of early morning on Thursday. Helicity values will also be on the increase and current SREF significant tornado values rise to near 30, very impressive this far out. In case by Thursday evening, the front will finally be offshore as cooler air moves in for the end of the week with high pressure for a few dry days for once. Some areas in the coming few days may experience very heavy rainfall, especially those who experience several thunderstorm days. Given the low FFG (Flash Flood Guidance) across local counties, some areas may experience flooding... Link. I will have small updates throughout the week on each individual threat of severe weather.
Tuesday appears to have severe weather and thunderstorms primarily focused across western Pennsylvania in correspondance with the approach of the cold front and several small MCV that will be rotating through. Damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes will be the the primary threats. Areas eastward will face a more capped environment with a lack of an organized trigger, although an isolated pulse thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.
Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...
(Courtesy of WGAL)
"Here north of Harrisburg 2011 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 3
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 3
Tornado Watches- 2
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 10
(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 5
Flood Warnings- 4
Flash Flood Warnings- 2
Monthly Precipitation- 0.12in
January Precipitation- 1.12in
February Precipitation- 2.74in
March Precipitation- 6.43in
April Precipitation- 10.47in
May Precipitation- 0.12in
Yearly Precipitation- 20.88in
(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 0
Excessive Heat Warnings- 0
90degree days- 0
Highest Temperature- 84F
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march 6.63"
april 10.78"
march and april 17.41"
ytd 22.24"
wet pattern looks to continue in the east with a possible noreaster this week
Tokyo was pretty much business as usual. They are very big into the energy conservation thing and there were a lot of concerts/club nights that were 100% benefits for the quake and tsunami.. There were a few nights were Shibuya crossing was only lit at the ground level. If you've seen photos of it lit at nighttime, you'll understand how eerie that is.
A few of the rail lines were down for rolling blackouts, but there are a billion ways to get around tokyo. The Tōhoku shinkansen is still down and probably won't return to normal service for a year or so.
We had one M5.8 quake during breakfast on the 16th; with the epicenter about 50 miles to our NNE, it ended up being an M4 in Shinjuku on the JMA seismic scale. The TV stations gave us 5-10 seconds of warning and the locals went dead silent and just waited to ride it out. A little bit scary at the time. Aside from that, the weather mostly held out for us. Lots of sunny days, and even when we made it all the way down to Sakurajima, the eruptions were minimal and the ash clouds were blowing into eastern Kagoshima bay.
It's a beautiful country with awesome people. Definitely not a vacation spot for everyone, but totally worth the trip.
MAINE
Caribou: -0.5F / +0.31”
Houlton: -0.6F / +0.12”
Millinocket: -0.2F / +0.35”
Bangor: 0.0F / +1.95”
Portland: +1.0F / +2.10”
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Concord: +1.5F / +1.30”
VERMONT
Burlington: +1.9F / +5.00”
St Johnsbury: -1.3F / +2.95”
Montpelier: -0.2F / +3.55”
MASSACHUSETTS
Boston: +1.8F / +0.44”
Worcester: +2.4F / +1.62”
RHODE ISLAND
Providence: +1.4F / +1.25”
CONNECTICUT
Hartford: +1.3F / +1.65”
Bridgeport: +1.5F / +0.64”
NEW YORK
Massena: +1.9F / +2.31”
Watertown: +1.4F / +2.65”
Glens Falls: +0.5F / +1.76”
Rochester NY: +1.1F / +3.06”
Syracuse: +3.9F / +5.14”
Buffalo: +0.4F / +2.65”
Albany: +2.1F / +1.41”
Binghamton: +2.1F / +5.06”
Poughkeepsie: +3.9F / +0.84”
Manhattan (CP): +1.8F / +1.07”
N Queens (LAG): +0.9F / +1.39”
Islip: +1.5F / +0.27”
S Queens (JFK): +1.9F / +0.55”
PENNSYLVANIA
Erie: +0.2F / +3.00”
Scranton: +1.8F / +3.23”
Williamsport: +2.0F / +6.55”
Mount Pocono: +4.2F / +4.75”
Allentown: +3.7F / +2.49”
Pittsburgh +2.7F / +2.12”
Reading: +4.0F / +2.40”
Harrisburg: +2.3F / +6.15”
Philadelphia: +3.7F / +1.80”
NEW JERSEY
Newark: +3.2F / +1.94”
Trenton: +5.1F / +2.55”
Atlantic City: +5.5F / +0.11”
WEST VIRGINIA
Morgantown: +3.9F / +3.69”
Martinsburg: +1.8F / +4.57”
Parkersburg: +3.3F / +4.85”
Elkins: +4.9F / +3.53”
Huntington: +3.7”, +6.65”
Charleston: +6.0F / +2.75”
Beckley: +5.8F / +1.92”
Bluefield: +5.1F / +1.58”
MARYLAND
Glen Burnie (BWI): +4.5F / +0.52”
Salisbury: +4.8F / -1.71”
DELAWARE
Wilmington: +3.5F / +1.32”
Georgetown: +5.5F / -0.82”
VIRGINIA
Dulles: +4.2F / +1.99”
Arlington (DC): +2.7F / +0.43”
Wallops Island: +5.0F / -1.18”
Richmond: +4.7F / -0.55”
Lynchburg: +3.8F / +1.90”
Roanoke: +4.0F / +1.72”
Blacksburg: +5.5F / +1.36”
Norfolk: +5.9F / -2.17”
Danville: +0.3F / -0.64”
APRIL 1st
Caribou ME: Snowfall, 7.5”
Bangor ME: Snowfall, 14.4”
APRIL 4th
Glen Burnie (BWI) MD: High Maximum, 86F
Dulles VA: High Maximum, 85F
Arlington (DC) VA: High Maximum, 85F (t)
Georgetown DE: High Maximum, 81F (t)
Beckley WV: High Maximum, 80F
Richmond VA: High Maximum, 87F
Bluefield WV: High Maximum, 81F
Norfolk VA: High Maximum, 86F (t)
APRIL 8th
Bluefield WV: Rainfall, 0.78”
APRIL 10th
Erie PA: High Maximum, 81F (t)
Pittsburgh PA: High Maximum, 82F (t)
Morgantown WV: High Maximum, 83F
Parkersburg WV: High Maximum, 85F
Elkins WV: High Maximum, 83F
Huntington WV: High Maximum, 87F
Beckley WV: High Maximum, 81F (t)
APRIL 11th
Massena NY: High Maximum, 76F
Mt Mansfield VT: High Maximum, 51F (t)
Montpelier VT: High Maximum, 70F
Watertown NY: High Maximum, 77F
Syracuse NY: High Maximum, 85F
Albany NY: High Maximum, 82F (t)
Newark NJ: High Maximum, 87F
Allentown PA: High Maximum, 84F
Reading PA: High Maximum, 85F
Harrisburg PA: High Maximum, 84F
Trenton NJ: High Maximum, 86F
Glen Burnie (BWI) MD: High Maximum, 85F (t)
Elkins WV: High Maximum, 84F
Wallops Island VA: High Maximum, 76F
Blacksburg VA: High Maximum, 80F (t)
APRIL 16th
Binghamton NY: Rainfall, 1.09”
Williamsport PA: Rainfall, 2.55”
Mount Pocono PA: Rainfall, 3.53”
Allentown PA: Rainfall, 1.83”
Harrisburg PA: Rainfall, 3.46”
Philadelphia PA: Rainfall, 3.11”
Roanoke VA: Rainfall, 1.95”
APRIL 20th
Caribou ME: Snowfall, 4.8”
Burlington VT: Rainfall, 0.95”
Watertown NY: Rainfall, 0.97”
Rochester NY: Rainfall, 1.21”
Syracuse NY: Rainfall, 1.36”
APRIL 21st
Caribou ME: Snowfall, 1.5” (t)
APRIL 22nd
Hartford CT: Low Minimum, 28F (t)
APRIL 24th
Providence RI: High Maximum, 78F
Dulles VA: High Maximum, 85F (t)
Wallops Island VA: High Maximum, 85F
Bluefield WV: High Minimum, 62F
APRIL 26th
Massena NY: Rainfall, 0.55”
Burlington VT: Rainfall, Rainfall for Any Day in April, 2.74”
Watertown NY: Rainfall, 0.24”
Glen Burnie (BWI) MD: High Minimum, 68F
Dulles VA: High Minimum, 67F
Bluefield WV: High Minimum, 66F
Blacksburg VA: High Minimum, 59F (t)
APRIL 27th
Dulles VA: High Minimum, 68F
Richmond VA: High Minimum, 67F
Arlington VA: High Minimum, 66F
Norfolk vA: High Minimum, 69F
APRIL 28th
Rouses Point NY: All-time Record High Water on Lake Champlain, 102.13’
King Street Ferry Dock: All-time Record High Water on Lake Champlain, 101.88’ (t)
Harrisburg PA: Rainfall, 1.55”
Lynchburg VA: Rainfall, 1.75”
MONTHLY RECORDS
Burlington VT: Precipitation, 7.88”
Rochester NY: Precipitation, 5.81”
Williamsport PA: Precipitation, 10.04”
Harrisburg PA: Precipitation, 9.46”
Beckley WV: High Mean Temperature, 57.3F
The outbreak of tornadoes that ravaged the southern US last week was the largest in US recorded history, the National Weather Service has said.
The three-day period from 25-28 April saw 362 tornadoes strike, including some 312 in a single 24-hour period.
The previous record was 148 in two days in April 1974.
The tornadoes and the storm system that spawned them killed at least 350 people in Alabama and six other states. It was the deadliest outbreak since 1936.
Wild stuff.
--- Gaara, sounds like you had a good time. Glad to hear things are returning to relative normalcy. I'm sure the same can't be said about Miyagi prefecture. I've been all over Asia, but unfortunately my Japan trip hasn't yet worked out. Hopefully next year.
And I come back to more rain and flood watch. Just lovely
Those storms are really starting to gain strength and certainly are training as they move east across central Pennsylvania. It could be a crazy night... AGAIN!
we stayed at the Williamsburg Lodge. It is a bit pricey, but they had a very good package. depending on how long you stay there are a few places I have stayed and on your price range. They (Historic Williamsburg)always have packages for 2 or more night stay. Patrick Henry Inn is walking distance and very affordable. The Woodlands Suites is a great place and right next to the Visitor Center and you can either walk to the Historic area or get on one of their many shuttle buses to take you over to the area. Governor's Inn is low priced, but not walking distance and the train usually runs by in the middle of the night. I would recommend going to the site...www.colonialwilliamsburg.com
I have been going there once a year for 15 years. It's so neat if you are into Colonial times. Also, Jamestown is a great place to visit and discover what the first English settlers experienced. next to it is a glass factory, supposed to resemble the first glass making factory in Jamestown. Yorktowne is also there and a lot is still intact. The buildings are neat to see and the Taverns have some of the most awesome food. I could go on. It is one of my favorite places to visit.
they had one for schulkyl county.
it's real dark outside. high of 79F
ready to get my vegetable plants in the garden. once I do I will put out my garden blog
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~~~~~~~~~♥ O R I G I N A L!!!!! ♥~~~~~~~
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I hope it was a happy day! :-)
Well, then, I'm glad she had a good day and you still have yours to look forward to!
HAPPY BIRTHDAY to the Original Mrs. :-)
BTW, I made the Lightning Strikes map link clickable, below.
http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Severe/Lightning .aspx
YIKES! No kidding? Got links or photos?
I know what you mean. I start to get bored with gardening when it's 95F and you've been at it for 3 months. Come August I am ready for the gardens to die off, of course after a good harvest.
The day started off well and then a few light showers and it got cooler. At least it was nice for the kids making their 1st Communion.
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