Observation Blog...

By: Zachary Labe , 7:14 PM GMT on March 14, 2011

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"Current Temperature"


"Current Dewpoint"


"Current Surface Map and Weekly History of Jet Stream Position"


"Regional Radar"


"Regional Satellite"


"Regional Advisories"


"Soil Moisture Anomalies and 5-day Precipitation Amounts from Hydro Prediction Center"


"Severe Weather Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"


"12hr Estimated Precipitation"


"Forecast Max Temperatures"


"Forecast Min Temperature"


"Forecast Weather at 2pm"


"Current Storm Reports"


"Fire Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"

(All maps courtesy of NOAA and Penn State Meteo.)

"Forecast Model Links"
-NAM model 12z...Link
-GFS model 12z...Link
-NMM model 12z...Link
-SREF model 9z...Link

"Severe Weather Links"
-Atmospheric Soundings Skewt T charts...Link
-SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pages...Link
-Public Spotter Reports for State College NWS...Link
-Severe Weather Model Forecast indices...Link
-Severe Weather Parameter Definitions...Link

"Flooding Links"
-Automated Pennsylvania Rainfall Recording Stations...Link
-Flash Flooding Guidance...Link
-HPC Forecasts for Excessive Rainfall...Link
-Hydrology Predictions for Lakes, Rivers, and Streams...Link

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2010-2011 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 0in of snow
Monthly Total (November)- Trace
Monthly Total (December)- 0.6in
Monthly Total (January)- 18.90in
Monthly Total (February)- 6.45in
Monthly Total (March)- 3.1in
Seasonal Total- 29.05in
Winter Weather Advisories- 9
Winter Storm Warnings- 2
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 2

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 23.7F
Lowest Low Temperature- -1.7F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First accumulating snow - December 10 - 0.50in of snow
Clipper light snow - January 7-8 - 2.25in then another 1in of snow
Double Barrel Low - January 11 - 4.5in of snow
Coastal Low - January 17-17 - 1.8in of snow/sleet
Arctic Front - January 20-21 - 2.1in of snow
Upper level/coastal low - January 26 - 5.75in of snow
Two clippers - January 28-29 - 1.5in of snow
Overrunning Snow - February 21 - 5.0in of snow
Rain to snow - March 6 - 3.0in of snow

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TT if the next low is any further South, I will not get anything! I've received only 0.13" of melted precip. so far, and it doesn't look like I'll get much more. We'll see. LT Stamford CT.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7512
Possibility exists for 2 or 3 more shots of wintry precip before March is done, especially for mid-atlantic with systems continuing to dive ESE while we remain locked tightly in this pattern. Future low tracks may be a bit farther south than the last two or three.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Had some really impressive rumbles of thunder in Camp Hill around 730 (I think) but otherwise everything sorta "fizzled" out around us. Got some decent rain but nothing else. Future sister in law reported torrential down pours and hail with strong winds 15 miles outside of Pittsburgh in the suburbs. Suprised her but I guess she doesnt check weather radar much ;) They're right on the landing flight path for the airport there too
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 169
Dang, my afternoon high today was 38.2F at 3:29pm, 15F below average. Daily high was 41.6F at 12:00 am though. I hit a record high of 80.0F on Friday, 29F above average. What a change...
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Thanks for your OBS. TT. Yeah, that is a good question about a Snownado!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7512
Is it possible to have a snownado?
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Took a drive up to the Poconos today with some free time. Wanted to see the snow and temperature gradient. Started as nothing here, dusting to coating in Philly northern suburbs, solid coating in Easton PA, a couple inches into the ridge and valley region, 8" depth of winter wonderland on the Pocono Plateau near Mount Pocono at 1:15pm. Light rain/mist until around 1500ft where it turned to light snow at I-80 and I-380 interchange. 35.3F when I began in Newtown PA at 11:30 am, 28.5F in Mount Pocono at 1:15pm.

12"-15" I mentioned below in the higher Poconos is overblown. Probably end up more like 8"-10" there.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
CTWXGUY, I think you are 100% correct. I doubt we'll even see 2"--unless that storm off the NJ coast can explode. Looks like the bulk of the precip. is moving off just to our South. It seems to be sliding just south of due East, putting that shield just beneath us.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7512
8:43pm

34.6F, Sleet/Rain mix

Had some thunder and lightning before sleet starting mixing in. Light coating of sleet on cold surfaces. Temperature has dropped 2.0F in the last hour and a half.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Pretty sure the snow event in SNE is going to be a flop. All that convection has stolen the moisture and unless the low off of NJ coast can explode within the next couple hours, I highly doubt most of us will see much more than 2 to 4 inches.
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Up to .75in of rain here today.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Lightning no thunder

maybe Cold Lightning
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Quoting wunderstorm87:
Incredible video from KDKA on the damage from that tornado...
Tornado Damage Video


wow, that looks like 2 or possibly even a 3 ef damage.
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Bellmawr, NJ
3 miles east of Philly
39F
Thunderstorm
Sporadic lightning and thunder
Steady rain

I believe it was thundersleeting earlier. I didn't even think it could storm at such a low temp.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3574
local storm report from pitt nws

0500 PM TSTM WND DMG GREENSBURG 40.30N 79.54W
03/23/2011 WESTMORELAND PA TRAINED SPOTTER

FORT ALLEN AREA 10 TO 20 HOMES WITH ROOF DAMAGE.



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Incredible video from KDKA on the damage from that tornado...
Tornado Damage Video
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
Quoting Mason803:


i do agree with you but nws base their criteria on damage to life and property. pea sized hail won't dent your vehicles and probally won't kill you but i'm not going to find that out.



i agree with you especially if the lightning is close.

looking at the radar in the summer they would have warnings out
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
well my criteria called it a severe thunderstorm...I would think anytime you have hail it would be a severe thunderstorm. the conditions usually for hail are severe, aren't they?

i'm NO yo. you better watch what you call me. haha


i do agree with you but nws base their criteria on damage to life and property. pea sized hail won't dent your vehicles and probally won't kill you but i'm not going to find that out.

and yes you're so much more than a yo. you're a patch!!

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33 degrees and thunder sleeting here in Emmaus, PA. Just a little north of here are reports of thunder snow.
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well my criteria called it a severe thunderstorm...I would think anytime you have hail it would be a severe thunderstorm. the conditions usually for hail are severe, aren't they?

i'm NO yo. you better watch what you call me. haha
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
well there were at least 5 lightning strikes close by and thunder with hail. i just assumed those conditions are criteria for severe. and the radar was red over my house....i looked up and saw a red radar in the sky...hahahaha

Mason want to make something of it? huh? hahahahahaha


well nws has made it pretty hard to have a true "severe thunderstorm"


def.-- A severe thunderstorm is one that produces winds 58 mph or stronger and/or hail 1 inch in diameter or larger.

So really it is quite hard to get a true severe thunderstorm. i know there's only been a hand-full of storms that i've witnessed that met that criteria.

and yes, you best back up yo!! haha
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well there were at least 5 lightning strikes close by and thunder with hail. i just assumed those conditions are criteria for severe. and the radar was red over my house....i looked up and saw a red radar in the sky...hahahaha

Mason want to make something of it? huh? hahahahahaha
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
Well, the radar has surly "filled in", very impressive. Hope you all are safe in PA.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7512
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
37F and a severe thunderstorm just moved through my area. It dropped a coating of pea sized hail. I wasn't expecting this. I usually don't associate severe thunderstorms with temps in the 30's.


what criteria did it meet to make it severe? don't take this the wrong way lol
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37F and a severe thunderstorm just moved through my area. It dropped a coating of pea sized hail. I wasn't expecting this. I usually don't associate severe thunderstorms with temps in the 30's.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
Quoting RkTec:


Anything happen out your way? Been listening to the scanner feed. Sounds like the Greensburg one may have been at least an EF2 based on the damage reports coming in of roofs completely torn off frame houses and large areas of trees completely uprooted, in one transmission a building was reported sitting in the middle of one of the roads.


nope, nothing here. a classic cad has set up with my high today being only 41f. did hear a rumble of thunder to the south earlier though
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Quoting Mason803:
impressive pics


Anything happen out your way? Been listening to the scanner feed. Sounds like the Greensburg one may have been at least an EF2 based on the damage reports coming in of roofs completely torn off frame houses and large areas of trees completely uprooted, in one transmission a building was reported sitting in the middle of one of the roads.
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Youtube video of the tornado in the Greensburg area. Kid in the video was just a little scared. The other interesting thing is you can see a second funnel cloud dropping down in the distance toward the end of the video.

tornado in hempfield
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impressive pics
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Tornado in Greensburg, PA. Here are pics of it. Amazing day of weather in PA today, heavy snows in northeast pa and severe storms in southwest pa.


Source



source

Live scanner feed of emergency services:
Westmoreland County Public Safety Live Audio Feed
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very strong rotation south of latrobe moving in to somerset county. some of the strongest i've seen in a while
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wow, do you see the temperature gradient out in southwest corner of Pennsylvania? I wouldn't be surprised to hear of tornado watches.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
Feel better P451, I know it's awful!, I've had a few over the years , fortunitally, only a few. About the same here by me in Stamford CT. 35F but alittle less snow on the ground here by me, and no snow on the ground as you you go further South from my house, down to I95. Radar doesn't look that impressive to me for later on unless it fills in abit as we approach nightfall.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7512
Morning

0.23 in so far with a T snow.
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0.3" of snow and ice this morning with 0.20" of precipitation measured in the rain gauge.

looks like another round is on its way
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
Time to bump up forecast totals in northeast PA above 1500 ft to 12"-15".
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
9 inches reported on the Pocono Plateau of northeastern PA by 8am. They will end up with a foot plus by Thursday morning. Ski resorts have to be loving this as conditions were terrible just yesterday. Great spring skiing this weekend.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
1.0" of snow here in emmaus, pa

Looks like northeast pa/northwest NJ got hit hard overnight.
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@ 7am, light snow with big flakes, 33.4F.

Changed completely over at 6:55 am. Will be extremely difficult to get any measureable snowfall considering timing of changeover.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
.1in of rain and .1in of snow/sleet here this morning
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Does Philly have any chance Thursday or Sunday? Lol.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3574
I can't believe this weather pattern for the next 5 or so days. snow in the forecast? are you kidding me. i realize we get it at times this late in March, but to have 5 or so days of it. come on

oh well....i guess i will need to get my snowblower out of the shed and bring it into the garage as well as the sleds....hahahaha

and forgive me for saying, but i guess i need to watch the weather channel or my local mets....
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
NWS STATIONS TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST FROM 9PM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

CONNECTICUT
Bridgeport 2.5"
Hartford 1.9"

DELAWARE
Wilmington 0.2"

MAINE
Caribou 1.7"
Houlton 1.3"
Millinocket 1.0"
Portland 0.8"
Bangor 0.7"

MASSACHUSETTS
Pittsfield 2.7"
Worcester 1.8"
Boston 1.3"

NEW HAMPSHIRE
Concord 2.3"

NEW JERSEY
Trenton 2.0"
Newark 0.5"

NEW YORK
Binghamton 7.0"
Buffalo 6.2"
Poughkeepsie 6.1"
Saranac Lake 3.0"
Syracuse 2.9"
Albany 2.6"
Rochester 2.6"
Glens Falls 1.6"
Watertown 1.6"
Islip 0.8"
Manhattan (CP) 0.6"
N. Queens (LAG) 0.6"
S. Queens (JFK) 0.5"
Massena 0.2"
Plattsburgh 0.2"

PENNSYLVANIA
Mount Pocono 10.7"
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre10.4"
Williamsport 4.4"
Allentown 3.4"
Erie 1.7"
Reading 1.3"
Harrisburg 1.0"
Philadelphia 0.2"
Pittsburgh 0.1"

RHODE ISLAND
Providence 1.6"

VERMONT
Morrisville 3.1"
Montpelier 2.7"
St Johnsbury 1.8"
Burlington 0.2"

WEST VIRGINIA
Morgantown 0.2"
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Quoting P451:
Hydrangea are a tough plant. Very thirsty plants. Splitting then you shouldn't force a split but rather let the root ball dictate it for you. They have weak areas and you can find them by just holding the plant as they are fragile. With any plant now is the time to upset it. For they won't really know what happened and when the warm up hits they will simply be locked in a grow now and grow fast mode.

If you do split a plant both the parent and sibling needs a lot of care. Proper watering is a must. Too much or too little and you'll lose the plants.

I personally don't like Hydrangea even though I had them. It's too needy of a plant for my taste these days.

They are unique in you can force their colors though. Your soil acidity dictates the color of the blooms. You can change the acidity of your soil to force the color of the blooms you want to have. So in that they are a fun plant.

A rusty nail on one side and some fertilizer on the other and you can have a very cool looking plant with a rainbow of color.



Nice to know I'm not the only one thinking about hydrangeas...I'm quite obsessive about them actually with an ever-growing collection!!!! LOL! Good luck!
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Sunday looks just as interesting as this pattern remains locked in and continues.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Quoting P451:
Hydrangea are a tough plant. Very thirsty plants. Splitting then you shouldn't force a split but rather let the root ball dictate it for you. They have weak areas and you can find them by just holding the plant as they are fragile. With any plant now is the time to upset it. For they won't really know what happened and when the warm up hits they will simply be locked in a grow now and grow fast mode.

If you do split a plant both the parent and sibling needs a lot of care. Proper watering is a must. Too much or too little and you'll lose the plants.

I personally don't like Hydrangea even though I had them. It's too needy of a plant for my taste these days.

They are unique in you can force their colors though. Your soil acidity dictates the color of the blooms. You can change the acidity of your soil to force the color of the blooms you want to have. So in that they are a fun plant.

A rusty nail on one side and some fertilizer on the other and you can have a very cool looking plant with a rainbow of color.



Thanks P & Listener- I have to decide whether to just tear it out or split it so I have one on each side of the front walk. I don't have a lot of capital for gardening this year, so I will just give it a shot. The one I have is pretty big, so I am not sure how easy it is going to be to untangle everything. With the weather forecast as is I will wait another week before setting the shovel to it. I appreciate the advice
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Some initialization issues with the 00z runs with the ECMFW the best option of the model suite. GFS too warm and too fast, NAM too cold and too far south. Wait until todays 12z runs to see if initialization improves. Its a very difficult forecast. Timing, exact track, guidance issues and elevation difficulties are the main culprits. Regarding the 4-8 in east central and northeast PA as well as northwest NJ, a good place to start forecast wise is 4 inches near 500 ft and below, 4-5 from 500 ft to 1000 ft, 5-6 from 1000 ft to 1500 ft and 6-8 above 1500 ft with little or no mixing. Could see 1-3 in the Philadelphia north and northwestern suburbs with a dusting poss all the way down to metro Philly itself. Lots of questions remain though so everythings taken with the familiar grain of salt.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
WSW issued for my area. Kind of surprised by it. Have a hard time believing it will stay mostly snow here. Still thinking more like 1-3", not 4-8" lol

... Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from late tonight through
late Wednesday night...

A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from late tonight through
late Wednesday night.

* Locations... the Lehigh Valley and southern Poconos in eastern
Pennsylvania and northwest New Jersey.

* Hazard types... mainly snow. Some sleet or freezing rain could
mix with the snow Wednesday afternoon and evening.

* Accumulations... 4 to 8 inches of snow.

* Timing... the snow will begin during the early morning hours of
Wednesday. The snow will fall with varying intensity during
Wednesday into Wednesday evening. The snow should taper off
late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

* Impacts... the Wednesday morning commute will be affected as
snow will be falling and untreated roads will be slick and
snow covered. The Wednesday evening commute could be affected
more significantly as snow accumulations could reach near 6
inches in places by Wednesday evening.

* Winds... northeast 5 to 10 mph.

* Temperatures... in the lower 30s.

* Visibilities... one quarter to one half mile at times.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow... sleet... or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.
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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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Personal Weather Stations

Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

About Personal Weather Stations