Observation Blog...

By: Zachary Labe , 7:14 PM GMT on March 14, 2011

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"Current Temperature"


"Current Dewpoint"


"Current Surface Map and Weekly History of Jet Stream Position"


"Regional Radar"


"Regional Satellite"


"Regional Advisories"


"Soil Moisture Anomalies and 5-day Precipitation Amounts from Hydro Prediction Center"


"Severe Weather Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"


"12hr Estimated Precipitation"


"Forecast Max Temperatures"


"Forecast Min Temperature"


"Forecast Weather at 2pm"


"Current Storm Reports"


"Fire Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"

(All maps courtesy of NOAA and Penn State Meteo.)

"Forecast Model Links"
-NAM model 12z...Link
-GFS model 12z...Link
-NMM model 12z...Link
-SREF model 9z...Link

"Severe Weather Links"
-Atmospheric Soundings Skewt T charts...Link
-SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pages...Link
-Public Spotter Reports for State College NWS...Link
-Severe Weather Model Forecast indices...Link
-Severe Weather Parameter Definitions...Link

"Flooding Links"
-Automated Pennsylvania Rainfall Recording Stations...Link
-Flash Flooding Guidance...Link
-HPC Forecasts for Excessive Rainfall...Link
-Hydrology Predictions for Lakes, Rivers, and Streams...Link

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2010-2011 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 0in of snow
Monthly Total (November)- Trace
Monthly Total (December)- 0.6in
Monthly Total (January)- 18.90in
Monthly Total (February)- 6.45in
Monthly Total (March)- 3.1in
Seasonal Total- 29.05in
Winter Weather Advisories- 9
Winter Storm Warnings- 2
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 2

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 23.7F
Lowest Low Temperature- -1.7F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First accumulating snow - December 10 - 0.50in of snow
Clipper light snow - January 7-8 - 2.25in then another 1in of snow
Double Barrel Low - January 11 - 4.5in of snow
Coastal Low - January 17-17 - 1.8in of snow/sleet
Arctic Front - January 20-21 - 2.1in of snow
Upper level/coastal low - January 26 - 5.75in of snow
Two clippers - January 28-29 - 1.5in of snow
Overrunning Snow - February 21 - 5.0in of snow
Rain to snow - March 6 - 3.0in of snow

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Viewing: 213 - 163

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213. Zachary Labe
11:57 PM GMT on March 30, 2011
Quoting Mason803:
closing in on 1" of snow here in cashtown. very nice!!


Go away, hahaha. Only rain/snow here with the temperature of 37F. Did you see the 18z GFS for tomorrow night??!!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15088
212. PengSnow
11:54 PM GMT on March 30, 2011
I am not a weather person by any means but the storm will intensify, look for a slight hint west of what the models are showing now somewhere in between 50-150 miles west the axis of the heavy snow will be along the apps still hitting the where they are calling for the winter storm watch, what this means by tomorrow you should see additional watches and warnings. Looking at the models next mid week, that storm looks more potent and a beach killer. Does anybody have input on what you see the storm goes slightly to moderately west.
Member Since: January 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 417
210. Mason803
11:25 PM GMT on March 30, 2011
closing in on 1" of snow here in cashtown. very nice!!
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
209. hurigo
11:23 PM GMT on March 30, 2011
Hey Blizz et al.
Baby... it is COLD outside and inside too!
There was cold rain most of the day, it felt as though there could be snow but I did not see any flakes.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6729
208. listenerVT
11:08 PM GMT on March 30, 2011
Does anyone have a projected snow totals map yet for the greater Northeast?

Gosh, I miss Sully at times like this.

I'm hearing 6-8" for the Champlain Valley and 12-14" for the outlying areas. Since I'm on the edge of the two, I may see 8-12".
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5483
207. TheRasberryPatch
9:34 PM GMT on March 30, 2011
oh right it was Letty...zotty/letty...similar lettering hahahaha

Letty - do you golf? not too far from you is a nice course called Mansion Ridge. There was talk of a bear that roamed around the 14th green, but I never saw it.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6250
204. LettyS
5:06 PM GMT on March 30, 2011
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
zotty - sorry i thought you were in Warwick. hmmmmm, now who was in Warwick, NY?


That's me! Haven't been around for a while because I am so slammed at work. :-)
Member Since: January 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 92
203. Ballooner
4:52 PM GMT on March 30, 2011
Quoting P451:
Winter Storm Watch out for Thurs Night through Friday for Croton, NY (Lower Hudson Valley).

Thu N: Light (1-3") Accum
Fri: Light (1-3") Accum
Fri N: Little (1") Accum

So 3-7" seems to be a target zone.

Yet, this is March, so anything could flop either direction. I won't be getting excited until Thursday afternoon for this one. Doesn't pay to do so.


SREF Ensembles: Shows a lower coastal low and then the NC cyclogenesis coming up the coastline:




NAM(Green), GFS(Red):




GFS MOS Guidance refutes the notion of snow in my region. Too warm. ">



HPC: Low Tracks




HPC Snowfall Potential >4" - Green = >40% chance, Blue >10%.





GFS Clown Map (Not sure what it sees NW of the Hudson Valley but okay.

NW of the Hudson Valley, are the Catskills, with many elevations over 3,500 feet.
Member Since: December 22, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 34
202. Ballooner
4:48 PM GMT on March 30, 2011




GFS Clown Map (Not sure what it sees NW of the Hudson Valley but okay. HPC disagrees entirely with that thing)

The Catskills are there.
Member Since: December 22, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 34
201. snowinvermont
4:19 PM GMT on March 30, 2011
Quoting TrentonThunder:
00z GFS puts 13" - 22" in Vermont. BTV needs 4.4" for 2nd place and 17.8" for most on record in a season.


What a season! Went skiing yesterday at Smugglers Notch and it was mid winter conditions. Still found nice powder in the secret stashes and great base depth. They're closing April 17th because their workers have summer jobs and not because of a lack of snow! Another foot or two Friday will be the spring bonus. A bunch of us are planning our annual Tuckerman's Ravine ski trip now but the avalanche danger is too high at this time. There will be skiing there until late May or June at the rate this winter is holding on!
Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 83
zotty - sorry i thought you were in Warwick. hmmmmm, now who was in Warwick, NY?

Where I grew up north of Baltimore, there were always wildlife on the courses. We didn't have many hawks around then, at least I didn't notice. Mostly squirrels, rabbits and fox. Even in Baltimore city there are fox hanging around the golf courses.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6250
197. zotty
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
Great pictures Listener. Just because you didn't see the Cooper's get anything doesn't mean he didn't. I have hawks (Sharp Shinned and Red Tale) flying around my feeders often. I never see any taken, but on occassion I find a pile of feathers on the ground.

A great place to see big hawks or other great looking birds is a golf course. I have seen some amazing wildlife on a golf course. The course I play often in Hershey has big Red Tale Hawks. I don't know how many that area can sustain, but there are many. Last year there was one on the ground just off the tee and he was chasing a squirrel coming within 5 feet and not batting an eye

P451 - where is Croton? are you near Zotty? I think he is in Warwick, NY


Hey TRP- I work in White Plains, NY and live in New Rochelle. Both are in lower Westchester Co, just north of NYC. I doubt I'll get much snow from this one...

I am a golfer as well. We have a family of red tails on my course. I have seen them dive bomb squirrels and water rats with and without success. I have seen countless shredding their dinner up in the trees and on rocks. It is pretty cool.

As a kid (in the 1980s) there were hardly any animals on the course other than this giant old turtle. Then there were rabbits, then squirrels, then deer, then hawks, and now an occasional fox and coyote. There are now fewer squirrels and rabbits than 15 years ago. :) I don't know what was in the pesticides in the old days but I think it killed all the animals, and not just the insect variety.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
00z GFS puts 13" - 22" in Vermont. BTV needs 4.4" for 2nd place and 17.8" for most on record in a season.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Looks like several days of cold rain for us. *sigh* Ready for warm weather now!
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1230
Quoting listenerVT:
Scary Dude...

This Cooper's Hawk has been spooking the birds all week.
Haven't seen any picked off, though.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND 7 TO 14 INCHES ABOVE 1000 FEET.
Your hawk is going to be a white hawk soon!!!




Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 83
Great pictures Listener. Just because you didn't see the Cooper's get anything doesn't mean he didn't. I have hawks (Sharp Shinned and Red Tale) flying around my feeders often. I never see any taken, but on occassion I find a pile of feathers on the ground.

A great place to see big hawks or other great looking birds is a golf course. I have seen some amazing wildlife on a golf course. The course I play often in Hershey has big Red Tale Hawks. I don't know how many that area can sustain, but there are many. Last year there was one on the ground just off the tee and he was chasing a squirrel coming within 5 feet and not batting an eye

P451 - where is Croton? are you near Zotty? I think he is in Warwick, NY
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6250
Scary Dude...

This Cooper's Hawk has been spooking the birds all week.
Haven't seen any picked off, though.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5483
We have Redpolls!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5483
Quoting Blizzard92:

The GFS/ECMWF ensembles seem to scream a near perfect H5 setup allowing for amplification a tad further west. Also with strong signals from the UKMET 'superbomb' I just think a tad west will be the track with the main cyclogenesis towards New England though.


Yeah, it's looking like we'll get slammed.
Family is supposed to be driving from Maine to Vermont late Friday evening. Heh.

Seriously in Mud Time now, here...
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5483
Quoting TrentonThunder:


The 18Z GFS has done just that with a 12"-18" hit for inland Mass, Vermont (east side of Greens), New Hampshire and Maine. 6" plus from Poconos northeastward. Zippity for Philly metro, light accumulations towards LSV.


Could Philly still see some sloppy flurries that don't accumulate? Our local forecast is pulsating between heavy rain and light snow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Blizzard92:

The GFS/ECMWF ensembles seem to scream a near perfect H5 setup allowing for amplification a tad further west. Also with strong signals from the UKMET 'superbomb' I just think a tad west will be the track with the main cyclogenesis towards New England though.


The 18Z GFS has done just that with a 12"-18" hit for inland Mass, Vermont (east side of Greens), New Hampshire and Maine. 6" plus from Poconos northeastward. Zippity for Philly metro, light accumulations towards LSV.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Quoting originalLT:
So Blizz do you think you guys in the LSV can get a good late season snowfall? I think I will be too mild here right near the coast. Maybe some accum. on the grassy areas, that's it. Or do you think it will "bomb out" too late for you?

I think it will be bit of both, too mild and too late. None the less I am watching it closely. Non-diurnal falling precipitation will have the highest chance of being some snow accumulation. I do think at least the ridgetops will see some accumulation at some point in the next few days in my area, maybe even the valleys at some point during the nights.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15088
So Blizz do you think you guys in the LSV can get a good late season snowfall? I think I will be too mild here right near the coast. Maybe some accum. on the grassy areas, that's it. Or do you think it will "bomb out" too late for you?
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7433
Quoting TrentonThunder:


What makes you feel it's too far east?

The GFS/ECMWF ensembles seem to scream a near perfect H5 setup allowing for amplification a tad further west. Also with strong signals from the UKMET 'superbomb' I just think a tad west will be the track with the main cyclogenesis towards New England though.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15088
Quoting Blizzard92:

I think the GFS has the right idea but is a bit too far east.


So i'm guessing you agree with the ECMWF 12z

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Blizzard92:

I think the GFS has the right idea but is a bit too far east.


What makes you feel it's too far east?
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Quoting Drakoen:
GFS showing a classic Nor'easter for the Northeast pounding the I-95 corridor later this week.

I think the GFS has the right idea but is a bit too far east.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15088
GFS showing a classic Nor'easter for the Northeast pounding the I-95 corridor later this week.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I am seriously PO'ed about the current weather. I have tickets to the Nationals opening day game. It's only supposed to be 41 degrees? Until Monday, the forecast was saying 57 degrees. Once baseball starts it's time for the snow and cold to be over.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:
Morning all.

*reads forecast discussion for Friday*

*raises eyebrow just a tad*

*resumes lurking*


lol
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Quoting P451:
Morning all.

*reads forecast discussion for Friday*

*raises eyebrow just a tad*

*resumes lurking*


Too funny! Thanks for the laugh, P!
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1230
Btw, radioactivity from Japan has reached the northeastern United States. We could have a radioactive snowfall. Dont worry, the radiation wont harm you.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Wednesday system looks weak and trending south.

A ton of dissagreement and uncertainty with the coastal system. Should probably erase your Thursday to Saturday forecast for now and wait for the 12z Wednesday or 00z Thursday runs to consider them again. The possibility does exist for a double digit swath of snow. The 00z GFS suggested a swath of 18 inch plus but is a cold and intense outlier.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Thanks for the forecast, TT, and for posting your thoughts, Blizz. We have something to play with, at least, whether it be rain or snow this weekend. Makes the cold worthwhile!
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1230
120hr GFS prints out over a foot of snow for me in Newville. I have plans to play golf on Sunday, so no thanks. Give it up, Winter - you lost. See you in November.
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The April Fools storm in 97 dropped over 30 inches of snow in the metro west/worcester area of Mass. I remember dropping a yard stick into the snow and it just about disappeared! It would be sweet t get a repeat!!
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Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
very interesting Blizz. One good thing, it won't stick around long as long as it's not double digits of snow. I wonder what is the most amount of snow for April in the northeast? any storms dump over 20" in April? I do recall in lower Hudson valley near Warwick, NY in 2001 we got 8" in early April.


Well I do know that there was the April Fool's Day Blizzard of April 1, 1997 which produced modest snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic but really hit New England.

One of Philadelphia's largest snowstorms on record was 19.5" on April 3-4, 1915.

The winter of 1995-1996 ended with a good spring storm on April 9-10. Up to 9" at coastal Mid Atlantic areas and around 15" in parts of New England.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I am back in town PGH and the big talk on the flight was a possibility of a weekend snow storm, it was kind of interesting since I am learning from everyone including this sight. But one of the people sitting across the aisle from me was a professor and he laughed and said somebody will be suprised with a decent amount of snow, additionally he said there will be more cold air pulled into the storm than being predicted, he mentioned that in pgh we could see temps in the mid 20s during the storm, is this possible for Friday and Saturday?? However he mentioned that most of the snow will be east of the spine of the appalachians and alot of rain on the coast.
Member Since: January 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 417
very interesting Blizz. One good thing, it won't stick around long as long as it's not double digits of snow. I wonder what is the most amount of snow for April in the northeast? any storms dump over 20" in April? I do recall in lower Hudson valley near Warwick, NY in 2001 we got 8" in early April.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6250
Teleconnections are really signaling a coastal storm with the NAO swinging sharply from negative to positive along with the similar AO. H5 charts show the possibility for enough amplification to allow the H5 low to dig enough for a nor'easter. Exact location and details remain uncertain, but I certainly favor the larger storm threat than the flatter wave possibility.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15088
Thanks TT, but for me, looking at the 18Z GFS, it looks like it's too far South for me and the NYC area for Wed., however, Friday night/Sat. AM looks very interesting.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7433
Although I am SOOOO excited to get out and garden (I have 3 hydrangeas that need to be planted!!!!)....I can't believe there's no discussion about the weather this week as it could get quite interesting!!! Blizz....expect a quick visit from me!! :) lol!!!!
Any thoughts?????
Member Since: January 29, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 53
Quoting TrentonThunder:
Possibility exists for a 1" - 3" snowfall somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic from north of Richmond VA to the PA/NY line and west to east of that region Tuesday night / Wednesday morning. Looks like a rain to snow to rain to snow deal, especially south and east of the mountain zones. QPF is a question and exact timing will be critical regarding light accumulations of snow, but flakes mixing in at the least seems likely under the precipitation shield.

During this timeframe, an interesting surface low under increasing amplitude develops over the gulf states. This low will exit the southern Mid-Atlantic coast where it could develop into a Nor'easter for the Mid-Atlantic and New England, total timeframe being from Thursday night to Saturday morning. There is the possibility that this low will phase over Atlantic waters and travel northeastward somewhere between the coastline and benchmark. Some type of snowfall, whether it be just snow mixing in, rain to snow with accumulation, or mostly snow with moderate to heavy accumulations exists from between Richmond VA and Washington DC and up through Maine. As expected, the threat for accumulating snowfall increases as one heads north and also northwest away from the coast.

After the storm exits the region, temperatures may rebound to average April 3rd levels by Sunday.

Hey TT: Saturday is looking pretty interesting on the GFS!
Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 83

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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
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Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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