Observation Blog...

By: Zachary Labe , 7:14 PM GMT on March 14, 2011

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"Current Temperature"


"Current Dewpoint"


"Current Surface Map and Weekly History of Jet Stream Position"


"Regional Radar"


"Regional Satellite"


"Regional Advisories"


"Soil Moisture Anomalies and 5-day Precipitation Amounts from Hydro Prediction Center"


"Severe Weather Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"


"12hr Estimated Precipitation"


"Forecast Max Temperatures"


"Forecast Min Temperature"


"Forecast Weather at 2pm"


"Current Storm Reports"


"Fire Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"

(All maps courtesy of NOAA and Penn State Meteo.)

"Forecast Model Links"
-NAM model 12z...Link
-GFS model 12z...Link
-NMM model 12z...Link
-SREF model 9z...Link

"Severe Weather Links"
-Atmospheric Soundings Skewt T charts...Link
-SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pages...Link
-Public Spotter Reports for State College NWS...Link
-Severe Weather Model Forecast indices...Link
-Severe Weather Parameter Definitions...Link

"Flooding Links"
-Automated Pennsylvania Rainfall Recording Stations...Link
-Flash Flooding Guidance...Link
-HPC Forecasts for Excessive Rainfall...Link
-Hydrology Predictions for Lakes, Rivers, and Streams...Link

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2010-2011 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 0in of snow
Monthly Total (November)- Trace
Monthly Total (December)- 0.6in
Monthly Total (January)- 18.90in
Monthly Total (February)- 6.45in
Monthly Total (March)- 3.1in
Seasonal Total- 29.05in
Winter Weather Advisories- 9
Winter Storm Warnings- 2
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 2

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 23.7F
Lowest Low Temperature- -1.7F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First accumulating snow - December 10 - 0.50in of snow
Clipper light snow - January 7-8 - 2.25in then another 1in of snow
Double Barrel Low - January 11 - 4.5in of snow
Coastal Low - January 17-17 - 1.8in of snow/sleet
Arctic Front - January 20-21 - 2.1in of snow
Upper level/coastal low - January 26 - 5.75in of snow
Two clippers - January 28-29 - 1.5in of snow
Overrunning Snow - February 21 - 5.0in of snow
Rain to snow - March 6 - 3.0in of snow

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Quoting TrentonThunder:


You might as well be on a different planet than the one I'm on. Still 68F at 8:45 pm. I was hanging on the back porch in bare feet and a t-shirt an hour ago. Rain approaching overnight from the west though.


Jealous! Ican't turn my garden either, it's coverd in snow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Miserable day here as well, I don't think we reached much more than 50. Windy/cold/rainy. Sound familiar anyone?
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 685
Quoting Blizzard92:
Ugh, long term GFS is nasty. I will never be able to get out in the garden if it holds anything true. It rains nearly every day or two for the entire run!


that's disgusting Blizz. I haven't been able to even turn my garden once. too wet. ugh. well maybe next week it will dry out. we have to get some decent days of warm sun continuously. we just have to
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
Ugh, long term GFS is nasty. I will never be able to get out in the garden if it holds anything true. It rains nearly every day or two for the entire run!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
Quoting TrentonThunder:


You might as well be on a different planet than the one I'm on. Still 68F at 8:45 pm. I was hanging on the back porch in bare feet and a t-shirt an hour ago. Rain approaching overnight from the west though.
Hell, I spent the entire day driving around in tshirt and jeans with the windows down and sunroof open. Awesome day especially when the sky cleared out between say 4:30 and 6pm in the camp hill area.

Looks like thunderstorms might be a bust though for us :(
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 173
Quoting crowe1:
.39" of cold, nasty, driving rain, that started as snow, today.

Current Conditions

Sacandaga Lake, Broadalbin, New York (PWS)

41.2 °F
Rain
Windchill: 41 °F
Humidity: 97%
Dew Point: 40 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Pressure: 29.45 in (Steady)


You might as well be on a different planet than the one I'm on. Still 68F at 8:45 pm. I was hanging on the back porch in bare feet and a t-shirt an hour ago. Rain approaching overnight from the west though.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:


I am not sure if it is part of the Blue Mountain? I don't think so. If you take the Turnpike westbound you don't reach the Blue Mountain tunnel for 45 miles or so from I83 - which is close to Roundtop.


Just broke out a Google Map and I'm convinced that was Roundtop. Roundtop is 22 miles WNW of Chickie's overlook and the slopes on that mountain face northeast. Hence we could only see 2 or 3 of the slopes. Confirmed that it's not part of Blue Mountain. Maybe you know, but what I consider the "gateway" to the PA mountains is Blue Mountain and it's called "Blue" from the TPK tunnel and all the way northeast through Blizz's backyard, to just short of the Delaware River Gap above Easton where it's called Mt Minsi. Blue mountain is 15 miles north from its closest point to Roundtop.

Some might argue that the mountains begin from the upland area near Michaux State Forest and extends northeastward through Roundtop, to south of Reading and south of Allentown-Easton. I tend to consider them the foothills. The gap between those uplands and Blue Mtn is The Great Valley / Lehigh Valley.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
.39" of cold, nasty, driving rain, that started as snow, today.

Current Conditions

Sacandaga Lake, Broadalbin, New York (PWS)

41.2 °F
Rain
Windchill: 41 °F
Humidity: 97%
Dew Point: 40 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Pressure: 29.45 in (Steady)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TrentonThunder:


Oh, ok. Is roundtop on Blue Mountain? I was leaning more towards the fact that I was looking at that strip of hills near I-76 rather than Blue Mountain because Blue is more of a steady elevation over many miles, and what I was looking at was a series of smaller hill/mountain peaks. If it was Roundtop I was looking at (and if Roundtop is on Blue), than it must have been sticking up from behind that strip of hills. Great visibilities on Sunday early afternoon.


I am not sure if it is part of the Blue Mountain? I don't think so. If you take the Turnpike westbound you don't reach the Blue Mountain tunnel for 45 miles or so from I83 - which is close to Roundtop.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
TT - the ski slope is Ski Roundtop. It's a small slope that gets a lot of traffic from Baltimore, DC, VA and sourrounding areas as well as Ski Liberty, which is right next to Gettysburg. If you can find an evening or day where it isn't so crowded it can be fun. It also has some summer activities on the mountain as well.

high of 72F today


Oh, ok. Is roundtop on Blue Mountain? I was leaning more towards the fact that I was looking at that strip of hills near I-76 rather than Blue Mountain because Blue is more of a steady elevation over many miles, and what I was looking at was a series of smaller hill/mountain peaks. If it was Roundtop I was looking at (and if Roundtop is on Blue), than it must have been sticking up from behind that strip of hills. Great visibilities on Sunday early afternoon.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
East Coast Record Highs, 04/04/11

* = Broken
(t) = tied

Martinsburg WV: 85F*
Glen Burnie MD (BWI): 86F*
Dulles VA: 84F*
Elkins WV: 83F*
Arlington VA (DC): 85F (t)
Georgetown DE: 81F (t)
Beckley WV: 80F*
Richmond VA: 87F*
Bluefield WV: 81F*
Norfolk VA: 86F (t)
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
TT - the ski slope is Ski Roundtop. It's a small slope that gets a lot of traffic from Baltimore, DC, VA and sourrounding areas as well as Ski Liberty, which is right next to Gettysburg. If you can find an evening or day where it isn't so crowded it can be fun. It also has some summer activities on the mountain as well.

high of 72F today
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
I hit 78.1F today.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Quoting MarylandGirl:
And for TT:
Located between the boroughs of Columbia and Marietta, Chickies Rock Park is the County's second largest regional park. The County Commissioners began acquiring this park property in 1977; as of 1997, the park exceeded 422 acres. Chickies Rock Park's name is derived from the American Indian word "Chiquesalunga" meaning "place of the crayfish". The park includes Chiques Creek, Donegal Creek, and selected points to the Susquehanna River.


Ahhh, nice info! It's cool to know that it has indian roots rather than some dude named Chickie hanging on the front porch with a case of Pabst Blue Ribbon. I did drive over "Chiques Creek" and wondered if the name was related.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
And for Philly--looks like a Canadian Goose to me....
Member Since: September 10, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 486
And for TT:
Located between the boroughs of Columbia and Marietta, Chickies Rock Park is the County's second largest regional park. The County Commissioners began acquiring this park property in 1977; as of 1997, the park exceeded 422 acres. Chickies Rock Park's name is derived from the American Indian word "Chiquesalunga" meaning "place of the crayfish". The park includes Chiques Creek, Donegal Creek, and selected points to the Susquehanna River.
Member Since: September 10, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 486
Great photo of the bird, Listener! What kind is it?

The birds here have been quite active with singing and flitting about. My dog's loving it - she's chasing them all over the yard and then comes to me to see if it's ok for her to do that. LOL Beautiful day!
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1270
Hey TT, the view sounds incredible, grab a picture the next time you go.

That warmth is going to reach my latitude, is it?
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 685
Expecting clouds to break this afternoon with low-mid 70's on the PA & NJ piedmont and coastal plain. Will get a little windy though. Cloudy and mild this morning with a breeze.

Was in Marietta to sign papers yesterday, took a walk to Chickie's Rock (who is Chickie, anyone know?) which overlooks the Susquehanna. Great views. The view north (over three-mile island) towards Harrisburg is nice and I couldn't tell whether I was looking at Blue Mountain on the otherside of the burg or that strip of hills that runs on the north side of the turnpike. Thought I saw a ski slope which would have been west of Harrisburg. View south was great as well. Also stopped at McCleary's for lunch. I'll be able to walk to McCleary's no problem, about a block away.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Quoting P451:


Good point about the NAM I was thinking about that yesterday for a bit. It was considered an outlier but it pegged the storm quite well.



Yes it did
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Hey Blizz! Hope all is going well. Looks like rain and thunderstorms for us have been pushed to tomorrow instead of tonight. Glad of that!
Enjoy today everyone...looks like a great one!
Member Since: September 10, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 486
Played hooky today...didn't do any chores or projects, just went for a ride instead. Brilliant sunshine and 53 degrees up here, and look who's back!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TheRasberryPatch- Nope, I think it will be dry for the most part tomorrow.

anduril- I think timing will really screw any chances for us this go around.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
Awesome jet of moisture extending from the midwest straight through central PA on the full NWS radar loop.

Blizzard: think we'll see any good thunderstorms in the next day or two?
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 173
Quoting Blizzard92:
Looks like we should hit 70F possibly tomorrow!


but will we be able to be outside and enjoying it or will it be raining to keep us indoors?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
Looks like we should hit 70F possibly tomorrow!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
Hello Bliz and all who stop by this blog.


Happy Saturday to you all!!!

graphic art
Weekend graphics comment
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BANGORWALKER:


Yup...A Maine storm for sure. Bangor's total ended up 14.4 inches about 4 hours after this record report was posted. It fell at 2-3 inches per hour between Noon-3PM


Yup. Looks like there was a swath of 15" amounts just north of Portland and extending northeastward.

Tell you what, the NAM had this thing pegged really well for a few days before peer pressure got to it and it jumped on board with the rest of the models for a day or so, and then jumped back to what it had before.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Quoting P451:
It's a Maine storm....

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU, ME
0439 PM EDT FRI APR 01 2011

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT BANGOR ME...

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 10.5 INCHES WAS SET AT BANGOR ME TODAY. THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 8.5 SET IN 1993.


Yup...A Maine storm for sure. Bangor's total ended up 14.4 inches about 4 hours after this record report was posted. It fell at 2-3 inches per hour between Noon-3PM
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:
It is spring. Did anyone see the size of those snowflakes? Anyone see the 60+ temps and severe thunderstorm potential for Tuesday? We're in Spring folks!

The occasional moderate rain shower in NYC today. Once I got back up north it was the occasional moderate rain shower followed by the occasional moderate snow shower with those huge well known April snowflakes... back to rain, back to snow, etc.

No accumulation. Fine by me I like either nothing or the big one. The inbetween crap is annoying at best.

---

Seems like Sunday night into Tuesday night is unsettled with Rain and wind and relatively mild temps.

That was our last chance folks and we missed out.

And I can't feel bad I'm reading some reports and it seems the 1-2 foot club of Albany to MA to VT to NH got just 1-2 inches themselves sans a few mountain tops.

Talk about BUST.

HPC Winter Weather discussion last night mentioned that this system had a very high bust potential. Well, that's good, but then why the insane snowfall forecasts and warnings if that is what you believed?

I guess you have to forecast off potential rather than gut feeling these days. Shame. Either way you'd be wrong the same amount of times I would think.


Yup..2", not 2 feet here in Jeffersonville,VT. Mountains a bit more(4-5). Bright side is I don't need to plow out!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Blizzard92:
NO snow here, ugh! But Blue Mountain had about 1-3in snow at the summit from above 800ft on up.


read my post,#268, from above. i was really surprised to hardly see any white in Hershey this morning
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
NO snow here, ugh! But Blue Mountain had about 1-3in snow at the summit from above 800ft on up.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
Exactly, TT, I really disliked the economic geogreaphy courses that I took, really boring. I also managed to take some geology courses, those I liked... Total precip. here, 0.48". Baro. is still low,29.32" and falling slowly, I think it's near bottom now.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
Quoting originalLT:
TT, I think a geography minor would be great with your Meteorology major, it's a good fit. I would just try to stay away from "economic geography" type classes--that is getting away from what I think "we" like, found them pretty boring. Physical geography courses would be great, also any "soil science" courses if they are offered would be interesting(however, they may be in the Geology Dept. if your school has one). I don't know what is being offered now, I've been out of that realm for well over 35 years!


I'm not interested in economic geography whatsoever. Would love physical geography.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Obviously this was a bust overall. The low pressure center was just too far east after it exited the southeastern coast to really crank up and orginize with the jet until it was too far north for most of us. This was also the primary reason we did not see the colder temperatures until later because the low wasn't yanking the cold air down into itself at our latitude until after it had passed. We saw that huge shift northeastward with heavy snow predictions simultaneously on every model the moment they recognized the eastward position.

A persistent flow off the ocean combined with colder temperatures behind the departing low is what kept snow and rainshowers falling in eastern PA and NJ. About 2" worth of large snowflakes fell in Lower/Central Bucks County PA today but with only a dusting of accumulation due to the timing of the changeover around sunrise. If these were the last snowflakes to fall this season, we will have hit the average date of last snowflake right on the nosey this year.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
MARCH 2011 NORTHEAST STATISTICAL CLIMATE REVIEW

(Temperature) (Precipitation) (Snowfall)

MAINE
Caribou (+0.1F) (+2.11”) (+5.2”)
Houlton (-0.5F) (+2.44”) (NA)
Millinocket (+1.2F) (+1.06”) (NA)
Bangor (-0.2F) (+1.06”) (-2.6”)
Portland (-0.4F) (+0.72”) (-9.6”)

NEW HAMPSHIRE
Concord (-1.1F) (+1.25”) (-6.8”)

VERMONT
Burlington (-0.9F) (+1.07”) (+15.4”)
St Johnsbury (-2.8F) (1.13”) (NA)
Montpelier (-4.0F) (+1.31”) (NA)

MASSACHUSETTS
Boston (0.0F) (-1.75”) (-6.8”)
Worcester (-0.1F) (-0.24”) (-10.6”)

RHODE ISLAND
Providence (0.0F) (-1.88”) (-3.6”)

CONNECTICUT
Hartford (-1.0F) (1.79”) (-9.1”)
Bridgeport (+0.2F) (-0.54”) (-1.1”)

NEW YORK
Massena (+0.4F) (+0.54”) (NA)
Watertown (+0.7F) (+0.60”) (NA)
Glens Falls (-1.7F) (+0.29”) (NA)
Rochester (-0.1F) (+0.09”) (-0.7”)
Syracuse (-0.3F) (-0.16”) (+0.4”)
Buffalo (-2.4F) (+1.64”) (+0.8”)
Albany (-0.6F)(+1.03”) (+2.8”)
Binghamton (-1.7F) (+0.93”) (+11.7”)
Poughkeepsie (+1.3F) (+1.58”) (NA)
New York [CP] (-0.2F) (+1.82”) (-2.2”)
N Queens [LAG] (-0.4F) (+2.04”) (-3.0”)
Islip (+0.6F) (-1.72”) (NA)
S Queens [JFK] (+1.3F) (+0.76”) (-2.0”)

PENNSYLVANIA
Erie (-2.9F) (+1.47”) (+6.4”)
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (-2.2F) (+2.44”) (+6.2”)
Williamsport (-0.3F) (+4.06”) (+5.6”)
Mount Pocono: (+0.8F), (+5.35”), (NA)
Allentown: (+0.7F), (+2.87”), (-2.8”)
Pittsburgh (-0.6F) (+1.82”) (-3.0”)
Reading: (0.0F), (+1.59”), (NA)
Harrisburg (-0.9F), (+2.41”) (-4.9”)
Philadelphia: (+0.9F), (+0.48”), (-3.2”)

NEW JERSEY
Newark (+1.4F) (+1.63”) (-2.1”)
Trenton: (+1.2F), (+1.20”), (-3.4”)
Atlantic City: (+0.9F), (+0.46”), (-1.3”)

WEST VIRGINIA
Morgantown (+0.1F) (+0.57”) (NA)
Martinsburg (-0.9F) (+0.59”) (NA)
Parkersburg (-0.3F) (+1.64”) (NA)
Elkins (+1.2F) (+1.16”) (-6.3”)
Huntington (+0.4”) (+0.46”) (-3.8”)
Charleston (+1.1F) (+0.42”) (-4.8”)
Beckley (+0.3F) (+0.87”) (+0.7”)
Bluefield (0.0) (+1.53”) (NA)

DELAWARE
Wilmington: (-0.4F), (+0.08”), (-2.2”)
Georgetown: (+0.3F), (-0.93”), (NA)

MARYLAND
Glen Burnie [BWI] (+0.6F) (+1.06”) (-2.4”)
Salisbury (-0.7F) (-1.09”) (NA)

VIRGINIA
Dulles (+0.8F) (+1.52”) (-3.2”)
Arlington [DC] (-0.9F) (+0.80”) (-1.4”)
Wallops Island (+1.4F) (-1.24”) (+0.1”)
Richmond (+1.0F) (+0.19”) (-2.4”)
Lynchburg (+0.7F) (-1.14”) (-3.2”)
Roanoke (+0.3F) (+0.39”) (-3.4”)
Blacksburg (+1.4F) (+0.55”) (NA)
Norfolk (+0.2F) (-1.12”) (-1.0”)
Danville (+0.7F) (-0.03”) (NA)
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Zotty I'm with you on that one I would appreciate average temperatures right now.

Didn't get much in the way of snow yesterday, I'd call it a heavy, wet inch. Glad that thing pushed on through now. Heavy soaker again next week right?
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 685
269. zotty
any signs of spring? how about back to back days with above average temperatures, or just a happy southwest wind. 56 is the average high at KLGA, and I would be happy with a week of that...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1.0" of snow with 0.36" in the rain gauge....now that is from yesterday morning.
i drove into Hershey, 5 miles to my west, and then barely had any white. it is completely white where i live.

Campbelltown, PA
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
267. RkTec
Have about a half inch of snow on the ground here in Emmaus, PA.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
36F. A bit of wet snow mixing in with rain. And so this season ends; not with a bang, but a wimper.

Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1270
Light snow falling here in Stamford CT. Some accumulation on the grass but very little. 35.8F, Baro. is pretty low. 29.36" and falling.With 0.27" in the rain gauge.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
All snow in Langhorne PA, 33.1. Light dusting forming on grass, cars and house rooftops.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Rain snow mix, 35.3 and falling in lower bucks county PA. No snow in the forecast.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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