Winter Outlook 2010-2011...

By: Zachary Labe , 7:59 PM GMT on March 05, 2011

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The bus jerked and swayed bump after bump on the lonesome Wyoming interstate. Mile after mile of flat land as the rain continued to lash against the windows. The clouds hung dark and low in a steady dreary state. It was beginning to get later in the afternoon as we continued to search for somewhere to stop for lunch. Driving out in the western United States is completely different than in the east. Signs of 'next rest stop 90 miles' are common instead of the megalopolis east coast. The rain and wind continue to whip the bus before finally the tour guide noticed as advancing to a very small town (if you want to call it that). The bus leaned to pull into a small diner alongside a two-pump gas station. It was the typical small town dinner on a dreary, rainy day with a few locals sitting up along the bar drinking a cup of coffee with a family or two in a booth eating lunch. A quick glance at the menu offered nothing unusual, just a few all American staples. The rain continued heavy lashing briefly against the window while coffee was being made in small pots in front of the kitchen. The smells of a typical diner were in full effect. But there remained a hidden feeling of frustration in the locals. Hope seems lost.

Small town America is not quite the thriving community that was noticed years ago. Here in the East, old coal mine and steel boom towns are dying. Rural America remains in many areas some of the most desparate areas of poverty across the United States. The threat of rising gas prices continues to ache more at these communities lost to history. Crime has risen in these once quiet communities and jobs remain difficult to find with the loss of the forgotten industries of their past. I have been fortunate enough to travel to many places and experiences all different types of subcultures. Major news items always seem to have our attention. Yet stories of the closing of a family run business go by the wayside. It is the little things that matter. It is the little things that are the foundation for this nation.

Anyways below is a repost of my original winter forecast for the months of December, January, and February. Overall the forecast had major errors are this can likely be pointed straight back to the anomalous negative NAO/AO during the months of December and January carving the path for brutal cold air across much of the nation.

Winter Outlook 2010-2011...(December, January, February)


(South Mountain- 21 February 2010)

Ah, the sounds of shoveling and snow blowers in the early morning will soon become the norm as old man winter blows across the western hemisphere. After anomalous snowfall during the season of 2009-2010, a peak back at snowy years has quickly remerged in our short term memory banks. For those located along the I-95 corridor south of the Mason-Dixon line, historical odds show a near 1 in 200 chance of a another seasonal snowfall year such as the one before. For those north of that line, there have been several seasons which have featured snowier conditions than last season. None the less for many, the month of February will be one to tell the grandchildren after a series of low pressures matured off the eastern seaboard. The pattern was emphasized by a starkly negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation). The NAO is teleconnective value, which takes into account differing regions of air pressure in the northern Atlantic located near the Icelandic Low and Azores High Pressure. The strengths of these associated areas including positions affect the mean NAO throughout the entire year. As the polar jet begins to drop across the northern United States towards the winter months, the NAO has direct affects on long term wavelength patterns downstream dictating short term and long term weather patterns. Unfortunately the NAO is not able to be predicted accurately more than a two week period or so in advance, reducing its helpfulness it long term weather pattern predictions. But on occasions, trends are able to be noted to support possible long term NAO tendency predictions. More on this subject will be discussed below on implications for the upcoming winter.

Of other importance note is the SO (Southern Oscillation) status of the 2009-2010 winter, which remains completely polarized from this current time last year. The strong El Nino peaked around mid December with SST anomalies near +2C SD for Nino region 3.4. Counter affects globally have been evident through the past six months, as one of the strongest El Ninos on record continues to have residual effects. Planet Earth so far has been dominated by global temperatures peaking near the highest mean on record since records have been kept since 1979. But this is very common with strong El Ninos. 1998 featured the hottest year on record globally, again directly correlated to the anomalous and infamous El Nino of that year. While strong El Ninos are typical to bring warm temperatures surging throughout a plethora of the United States during the winter, the anomalous negative NAO allowed the warmth to stay suppressed. El Ninos often feature an active subtropical jet, so the combination of upstream blocking and moisture from the south created the catalyst for the record snowfall.

But Fall 2010 is in a complete disposition from last year at this time. It was evident last winter was going to be a very snowy year for the Middle Atlantic with the predominant negative NAO and active southern stream courtesy of the El Nino. Tides have quickly changed this year making this seasonal forecast quite unique. First let me begin with a quick summary on the average Middle Atlantic region winter...

An average winter in Pennsylvania consists of many different types of winter weather. Winters in Pennsylvania are more severe than middle Atlantic winters and Ohio valley winters, but less severe than neighboring New England winters. On average the first snowflakes fall in mid to late October in the northwestern part of the state. And the last snowflakes typically fall in the northwestern part of the state in early May. Frost season lasts from early October to mid May in most areas. The geographic regions of Pennsylvania play a major part in snow totals and temperatures.

("Courtesy of NOAA")
There are two regions of Pennsylvania that see significantly higher snow totals than the rest of the state. The Laurel Highlands and Northwest Mountains see snow totals well over 100inches every winter. In extreme winters snow may be on the ground into June with seasonal totals of over 200inches. The seasonal snow total record is held in Corry, Pennsylvania of 237inches. The monthly snow total record is held in Blue Knob, Pennsylvania with 96inches of snow. Corry is found in the northwest mountains and Blue Knob is a ski resort found in the Laurel Highlands. Blue Knob is the highest ski able mountain in Pennsylvania. Below is a map of average seasonal snow totals in Pennsylvania.

("Courtesy of NOAA")
Different types of winter storms affect the state of Pennsylvania, clipper systems, lake effect snow outbreaks, nor'easters, advection snows, and etc. The coldest month is typically January statewide. And the snowiest month statewide is typically February. Northwest Pennsylvania typically sees a majority of their snows in Lake Effect snow outbreaks. While eastern Pennsylvania sees most of their snows from coastal storms. When coastal storms come up the coast many areas in Pennsylvania can see major snowstorms. The Poconos typically see the most snow from coastal storms due to their elevation aid to precipitation totals. Some of the greatest storm total snowfall records are actually held in eastern Pennsylvania and not in the northwest Snowbelt regions. The highest average seasonal snow average is found in Corry, Pennsylvania with an average of 118inches. While the low seasonal snow total is found in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania with 21inches of snow. As far as temperatures go the coldest temperatures are found in the Alleghany Plateau region with the lowest temperature every recorded in Pennsylvania was in Smethport with -42degrees. Temperatures typically dip below freezing every day from November to March statewide. Extreme cold outbreaks typically occur around mid to late January. At times warm thaws may occur, but they are rare and sparse. As for ice storms they typically occur in December when the sun's rays are at their lowest. Very odd winter weather features occur each year including thunder snows, etc. and thunder snows are like thunderstorms but with snow instead of rain. Snow rates up to 5inches can occur. Thunder snows are mostly likely associated with frontal passages and lake effect snows. As far as winds, typically northwest winds setup on the coldest of winter days and can gust up to 50mph. Wind chills as low as -25degrees are felt almost at least once in the mountains of Pennsylvania. On average winds gust to 30mph several times each month. For ice on waterways, many northern lakes and rivers solidly freeze every winter. For southern areas ice forms every winter, but does not necessarily become very thick. During extreme winters even southern regions can see ice thicknesses of over a foot. The most extreme winter storms that affect Pennsylvania are nor'easters though. They affect large areas of the state with high winds and heavy precipitation. On rare occasions snow totals of over 35inches have occurred with snowdrifts as high as 6ft in many areas of eastern Pennsylvania. Winters in Pennsylvania overall are relatively severe, with geographic regions playing a major part in average snow totals and cold temperatures. Weather for parts of Maryland and Delaware could be considered a bit more uniform due to the size of the states. Maryland is a bit more varied thanks to some unique geographic features. Western Maryland particularly in Garret County is home to some extremely heavy snow thanks to its favorable upslope location allowing orographic lift to aid in heavy snow over the 2000ft+ elevations. Over 100inches of snow falls each year in parts of the county near popular resort areas such as Deep Creek. Heading east in Maryland crosses several large mountain ranges near the Cumberland Gap, the Potomac Highlands, and the Blue Ridge Mountains heading towards Hagerstown which sees a varied snowfall each season averaging around 30inches of snow less than that of most of southern Pennsylvania, excluding Philadelphia. Heading south and east towards Baltimore and Washington DC snowfall totals immensely fall off to averages from 15-20inches with similar numbers in Delaware. The palliating effects of warmth from the Atlantic allow for slightly low totals as they featured more mixed precipitation events.

I am going to dive right into the heart of the forecast this year, but likely the most difficult... the ENSO regime. For those not familiar, the ENSO is a measure of sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific in correlation with direct and indirect monsoon precipitation trends. These anomalies and patterns often feature global affects and are used in long term weather pattern predictions. La Ninas featured cooler than normal SST anomalies, while El Ninos featured warmer than normal SST anomalies.

("Courtesy of NOAA")
Global computer models had been indicating the reemergence of a strong La Nina for this upcoming Fall by about the beginning of summer. The CFS clearly indicated the threat, but such a dramatic swing from one of the strongest El Ninos on record to a strong La Nina seemed unusual and unlikely. Well SST began to cool through the summer, and by the middle of June they were at the standard deviation threshold for being classified as a La Nina. But it remained unofficial, as those readings must stand for at least three months to be classified. Well three months later and SST anomalies remain well below normal. In fact I am bold enough to signal these anomalies as reaching the minimum strong threshold. The current ONI (Oceanic Nino Index) has already reached a JJA (June, July, August) reading of (-0.6) The ONI index is a general mean of the Nino region 3.4 sea surface temperatures. It is my favorite indicator to keep track of the ENSO status. For data back to 1950... Link. Interestingly enough referencing several strong La Ninas such as 2007-2008 already shows this current La Nina stronger at this date than those years.

Strong La Nina years for a JJA ONI Mean...
2007- (-0.4)
2000- (-0.4)
1954- (-0.8)
1950- (-0.8)

(Keep these years in the back of your mind). Dramatic swings in SST anomalies are difficult to note and few years remain similar. In fact what remains unique about this La Nina is actually the location. A weak westerly wind burst has actually favored a slight rise in sea surface temperatures on the western end of the measured equatorial Pacific regime. Currently the lower SSTs remain east based, and this appears to be making for an easterly based strong La Nina. What does this mean? Well essentially many are familiar hearing about the west-based El Nino of last winter. This helped to cause direct influences on the local weather patterns in the western hemisphere. But an east based ENSO event typically has slightly fewer influences being dispositional. Still though a strong La Nina will be a dominate player in the upcoming winter. What makes the forecast difficult is there are zero analogs that correspond to this year’s SST anomaly SST depressions. A few matches to 1950-1951 and 1954-1955 emerge, but that is all.

So first check is strong La Nina, but the most important driver in the winter regime is the highly variable teleconnective indices. First off, it is important to note the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) has resurged back down to negative values. This index monitors SST anomalies in the northern Pacific and can be closely followed based on 10-year trends. I had recent ideas that the PDO was beginning to show signs to tip to positive starting last fall, which it did courtesy of the El Nino. But now with it surging negative again, it is clear the decadal negative cycle has yet to end. A negative PDO is often associated with a warmer pattern for the central and eastern United States with cooler conditions to the west. It is closely in correspondence with the shorter term PNA (Pacific/North American Oscillation). Another teleconnection already mentioned is the NAO, which again is all interconnected with the other indices. Through most of the summer the PNA and NAO have been steady excluding an early August hiccup...

PNA...


NAO...


They have clearly pointed to a positive PNA and negative NAO regime. In winter, this would lean towards troughing over the east coast and ridging over the west coast of the United States. But during the summer, these teleconnections have a much less influence on the global wavelength pattern and therefore go unnoticed. It remains clear that the NAO generally remains dominated negatively. Last year in fact it reached the lowest negative reading in nearly fifty years during December and early January; this coupled with the United Kingdom featuring one of their coldest winters in nearly 30 years. While many say forecasting the NAO is highly impossible, I do feel there are a few important trends that can be detected. I have been monitoring monsoonal patterns in the Indian Ocean along with the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and have noted possible correlations to a continued negative NAO regime. I do believe the NAO will feature a general upswing pattern though by the end of December. While short swings to negative and positive and vice versa are possible... my general NAO forecast is...

December- (-1SD)
January- (-+0SD)
February- (+1.5SD)

This being said, I do not think the NAO will reach any negative anomaly such as that of last winter. Still, the NAO may be the saving grace for snowfall in the Middle Atlantic during favored wavelength periods. Also the AO (Arctic Oscillation) is another player and again has generally been negative to neutral through most of the Summer. I expect this continue through much of the winter. Recent satellite images and statistics continue to show increasing cooler temperatures in that region along with end to the rapid dwindling sea ice levels.


("Couresty of NSIDC)

As noted above, sea ice levels are relatively close to last years at this time and continue to remain higher than the record lows of 2007 and 2008. A continued upswing in levels is likely as the negative AO remains imminent for the next week or more. Eurasia snow levels also continue to remain near normal values and nothing of any worth noting. Same for Canadian snow levels, which are beginning to recover after a record low during this past winter and summer. Cooler air courtesy of the negative AO weather patterns have allowed for recent snowfall in the northern portions of that region. ECMWF and GFS guidance continue to indicate cooler than normal temperatures in this region, which will continue to aid in a building snowpack.

Of important and controversial note remains the solar field. Low sun spot cycle 21 continues to plague astronomers and climatologists on residual effects on planet Earth. The topic remains highly controversial as some completely disagree in any affects on global temperatures. But excluding the strong El Nino this summer, which allowed global temperatures to surge, the general global trend has been about a (-0.2)-(-0.4)C drop in global statosphere temperatures for this past decade under the extremely low sunspot regime. Activity continues to remain dull, with very little to no sunspot reports daily. My personal opinion remains that sunspots do affect climate globally. The sun is the catalyst for weather and energizes the Earth along with heat from the inner core. Any change in the solar output of the sun is bound to have some type of effect on the Earth's weather. The sunspot minima also argues against finding any analog with a strong La Nina coupled right after a strong El Nino. This will likely for tail some interesting weather patterns.


("Courtesy of SpaceWeather")

Global models continue to indicate a variable pattern through the winter with ECMWF monthly reports showing near normal precipitation and near normal temperatures for the three meteorological winter months. The CFS model also remains similar showing cooler conditions during the first half of winter followed by a warming trend towards February. It is though interesting to note, the CFS shows a definite favorability towards continued Greendland Blocking (negative NAO) and higher thermal heights over the western United States.


("Courtesy of NOAA")

Finally I just wanted to point out that I have been recently following GFS verification charts closely. As many already know, the GFS underwent a recent major upgrade increasing resolution, parameter boundaries, etc. The model has actually been performing quite well during the past weeks, especially in the tropics often outperforming the ECMWF. Recently for weather patterns across the Middle Atlantic, the convective feedback QPF problems have been eliminated and the model does not produce as many outrageous 384hr solutions. But please note... it does contain a WARM bias after 180hrs. Unlike the previous GFS, the updated GFS now as a warm long term bias instead of a cold bias.

So what does all of this information mean? Well it portrays the volatility of this upcoming winter season at its best. We have a strengthening east-based La Nina coupled with a negative NAO regime in a sunspot minima decade. Analogs are in relative inexistence this season, so global patterns will play the major role in the forecast. La Ninas often feature mild and sometimes very dry winters for the Middle Atlantic. In recent memory La Ninas have caused some very poor snowfall department winters especially along I-95. My forecast for this winter 2010-2011 will maintain an interesting and slightly uncertain approach.

Temperature Monthly Anomalies...
December- (+0.4F)
January- (+1.1F)
February- (+1.5F)

Snowfall Monthly Anomalies...
December- (115% of normal)
January- (90% of normal)
February- (45% of normal)

I am forecasting a very mild winter, especially towards the later half as the La Nina and pesky GOA (Gulf of Alaska) low undergo troughing over the western United States. But the negative NAO regime may allow for periods of snowy weather, especially in late November and December. The biggest question remains on how dry the weather pattern will be. The east-based La Nina tends to leave me to believe that we will avoid the normal La Nina dry spell for the most part, but this remains uncertain. I also believe there will be periods of severe arctic blasts, especially across the central northern Plains, which will likely average below to well below normal. The negative AO will offer these cold blasts, and they will modify moving eastward. This will allow for likely at least 2-3 one week periods in the Middle Atlantic this winter for very cold weather and near record lows at times. It is often common in La Nina patterns to receive this cold blasts behind storm systems that track through the Ohio Valley. But in general warmer patterns will prevail between the colder outbreaks. I am taking a variable storm track forecast this year with no preferred location. The pattern will be hostile and active with great temperature contrasts. Yes there will also be a dominate southeast ridge. The strength of this southeast ridging will determine the snowfall placements northwest of the low pressures along the east coast. I also believe it is possible to see a dramatic upswing in snowfall totals from the Mason-Dixon line on northward with dramatically lower totals to the south. For more information see winter of 2000-2001. The threat of several mix precipitation and ice storms remains higher than normal this year and will likely be featured several times this winter under cold air damming scenarios. All in all a general La Nina winter is likely courtesy of the anomalous strength already this early in the Fall. But important to note is the NAO and easterly placement of the SST deviations. This may allow the winter not too be a total disaster for many areas. For those expecting a record breaking winter, it is not likely for areas in the Middle Atlantic. New England may do fairly well, especially in northern portions which escaped the brunt of last winter. As always I will be busy posting away throughout the entire winter. My college application process is just about done, so I will finally begin to have some more free time just in time for my favorite weather season. Keep in mind out of my three winter outlooks, this one has the lowest confidence levels. So far the other three turned out well, so we shall see. As usual a verification blog will be posted at the end of the meteorological winter in February.

"Here north of Harrisburg 2010 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 12
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 10
Tornado Watches- 2
Tornado Warnings- 1
Total Thunderstorms- 18

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 4
Flood Warnings- 4
Monthly Precipitation- 3.10inches
Yearly Precipitation- 29.64inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 5
Excessive Heat Watches- 1
Excessive Heat Warnings- 1
90degree days- 38
Highest Temperature 101F (x2)

For the final section, I thought it would be interesting to post some archived maps of the four major nor'easters of our last winter from Penn State Meteo. EWall...
December 19, 2009...


February 6, 2010...


February 10, 2010...


February 26, 2010...


"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2010-2011 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 0in of snow
Monthly Total (November)- Trace
Monthly Total (December)- 0.6in
Monthly Total (January)- 18.90in
Monthly Total (February)- 6.45in
Monthly Total (March)- 3.0in
Seasonal Total- 28.95in
Winter Weather Advisories- 9
Winter Storm Warnings- 2
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 2

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 23.7F
Lowest Low Temperature- -1.7F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First accumulating snow - December 10 - 0.50in of snow
Clipper light snow - January 7-8 - 2.25in then another 1in of snow
Double Barrel Low - January 11 - 4.5in of snow
Coastal Low - January 17-17 - 1.8in of snow/sleet
Arctic Front - January 20-21 - 2.1in of snow
Upper level/coastal low - January 26 - 5.75in of snow
Two clippers - January 28-29 - 1.5in of snow
Overrunning Snow - February 21 - 5.0in of snow
Rain to snow - March 6 - 3.0in of snow

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206. pittsburghnurse
3:16 AM GMT on March 14, 2011
The ground in my back yard is saturated and ponding in places. The rain ended 2 days ago and it is STILL ponding. Can't wait for a sunny day. Shouldn't have to wait long.
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
205. TrentonThunder
10:31 PM GMT on March 13, 2011
Quoting originalLT:
TT, I would tend to think zero effect, unlike a major volcanic eruption, but it would be interesting if there was any data on climate and major earthquakes.


Its hard to believe that a 2 foot axis shift would cause a noticeable change when considering the size of the planet. Maybe a mile shift would but I dont know.

Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
204. TheF1Man
9:46 PM GMT on March 13, 2011
Beautiful day today. I'm with marylandgirl, it's practically golf season. I hit my first bucket of balls of the year today. It felt great!

P451 you play as well don't you?
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 682
203. MarylandGirl
7:12 PM GMT on March 13, 2011
Garden wise I am planting seeds in a greenhouse and anxious to till the ground.
Forsythia is in bloom.
Hosta in raised bed has broken gound.
Second golf lesson this week....someday I may go on the course.
and on the other side.....how many bonsai gardens and homes have the people of Japan lost. You have to admire people who would not think of looting homes. We all know that it is a Major threat in the US. Our prayers are with them......
Member Since: September 10, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 486
202. Hoynieva
5:24 PM GMT on March 13, 2011
Quoting originalLT:
TT, I would tend to think zero effect, unlike a major volcanic eruption, but it would be interesting if there was any data on climate and major earthquakes.


Interestingly enough an 8.6 magnitude earthquake that struck Japan on October 28, 1707 generated a 33-foot (10-meter) tsunami, killing upwards of 5,000 people. Some scientists believe the quake may have triggered the eruption of Mount Fuji 49 days later.

I also read that a volcano in Southern Japan erupted today, but of course making a direct connection to the earthquake and subsequent aftershocks would be impossible with current technology.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1519
201. originalLT
4:39 PM GMT on March 13, 2011
TT, I would tend to think zero effect, unlike a major volcanic eruption, but it would be interesting if there was any data on climate and major earthquakes.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7920
200. TrentonThunder
3:11 PM GMT on March 13, 2011
Quoting listenerVT:
Did you hear that the earthquake moved the island of Japan 8 feet
and moved the Earth's axis 4 inches...!?!

Read that and more here:
http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/asiapcf/03/12/japan .earthquake.tsunami.earth/index.html?hpt=T1

If anyone hears which way the island and the axis got moved, do say.

Wait, someone said "east."


I wonder what effect that has on the climate, if any.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
199. TheF1Man
2:53 PM GMT on March 13, 2011
I can't see anything either listener.

I believe the 9.0 back in Indonesiaa few years back sped up the earth's rotation by some thousandths or millionths of a second. Incredible.
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 682
198. listenerVT
4:57 AM GMT on March 13, 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
<


Hi KEEPER...
I can't see more than "<" of what you posted.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5561
197. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:20 AM GMT on March 13, 2011
<
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
196. listenerVT
4:15 AM GMT on March 13, 2011
Did you hear that the earthquake moved the island of Japan 8 feet
and moved the Earth's axis 4 inches...!?!

Read that and more here:
http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/asiapcf/03/12/japan .earthquake.tsunami.earth/index.html?hpt=T1

If anyone hears which way the island and the axis got moved, do say.

Wait, someone said "east."
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5561
195. absurfer
3:27 AM GMT on March 13, 2011
i bet u guys wish u didnt get all that snow now heavy rain snow pack = flooding
Member Since: January 3, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 155
194. listenerVT
1:33 AM GMT on March 13, 2011
Quoting pittsburghnurse:
Just saw on the news that effects of the quake were detectable by instrumentation even locally here in Western Pennsylvania.


Wow!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5561
193. TrentonThunder
1:00 AM GMT on March 13, 2011
That potential storm that was mentioned 4 or 5 days ago isn't all that impressive and high pressure will win the war and scoot it out to sea. Could leave 1"-3" snow somewhere in the highest elevations of West Virginia and Virginia.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
192. TrentonThunder
12:49 AM GMT on March 13, 2011
...TORNADO CONFIRMED IN BEALETON VIRGINIA...
LOCATION...BEALETON IN FAUQUIER COUNTY VIRGINIA
DATE...MARCH 10 2011
ESTIMATED TIME...617 PM TO 620 PM EST
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF1
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...90 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...75 YARDS
PATH LENGTH...4 MILES
BEGINNING LAT/LON...38.5750N / 77.7605W
ENDING LAT/LON...38.6189N / 77.7013W
* FATALITIES...NONE
* INJURIES...NONE

...SUMMARY...
AFTER AN EXTENSIVE REVIEW OF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND FEDERAL
AVIATION ADMINISTRATION WEATHER RADARS...GROUND OBSERVATIONS...AND A
NWS GROUND SURVEY...THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETERMINED THAT A TORNADO STRUCK
SOUTHERN FAUQUIER COUNTY. THE TORNADO FORMED WITHIN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA THAT EVENING. THE TORNADO MOVED
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AND CAUSED POCKETS OF DAMAGE ALONG A 4 MILE
TRACK. DAMAGE INCLUDED MULTIPLE TREES DOWN AND A COLLAPSE OF A WELL
CONSTRUCTED BARN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF ROUTE 28 AND OLD CAROLINA
ROAD.
------------------------------------------------- -------

...TORNADO CONFIRMED IN CHANTILLY VIRGINIA...
LOCATION...CHANTILLY IN FAIRFAX COUNTY VIRGINIA
DATE...MARCH 10 2011
ESTIMATED TIME...659 PM TO 703 PM EST
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF0
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...65 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...75 YARDS
PATH LENGTH...4.5 MILES
BEGINNING LAT/LON...38.8517N / 77.4508W
ENDING LAT/LON...38.8986N / 77.3824W
* FATALITIES...NONE
* INJURIES...NONE

...SUMMARY...
A NWS STORM SURVEY TEAM DETERMINED THAT A EF-0 TORNADO OCCURRED NEAR
CHANTILLY IN FAIRFAX COUNTY VIRGINIA ON THURSDAY EVENING MARCH 10
2011. THIS TORNADO PRODUCED MINOR TREE DAMAGE ACROSS AN APPROXIMATE
4.5 MILE PATH.

THE FIRST DAMAGE NOTED WAS NEAR THE SULLY STATION SHOPPING CENTER
WEST OF BRADDOCK ROAD...WHERE THERE WERE MANY BROKEN TREE BRANCHES.
AS THE TORNADO PROGRESSED TO THE NORTHEAST...PINE TREES WERE SNAPPED
IN ELLANOR LAWRENCE PARK ALONG SOUTHBOUND VIRGINIA ROUTE 28. THE
TORNADO CONTINUED ITS NORTHEAST TREK ACROSS ROUTE 28...WHERE MORE
PINE TREES WERE FOUND SNAPPED IN THE WOODS OF LAWRENCE PARK NORTH OF
THE WALNEY HOUSE. SPORADIC DAMAGE CONTINUED THROUGH THE
SUBDIVISIONS SURROUNDING FROG BRANCH STREAM VALLEY PARK. THE MINOR
TREE DAMAGE CONTINUE ACROSS US ROUTE 50 NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
TOWN AND COUNTRY CLUB. THE LAST OF THE DAMAGE WAS FOUND IN THE
CAMERLEY SUBDIVISION BETWEEN FAIRFAX COUNTY PARKWAY AND WEST OX ROAD.




Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
191. TrentonThunder
12:38 AM GMT on March 13, 2011
What a terrifying scene in Japan...

The rivers and creeks listed below all experienced major flooding from the last storm. Evacuations were and still are necessary in northeastern New Jersey. There was one record flood (Adirondacks).

NEW JERSEY

Passaic River...

Pinebrook: 3' above, 1' shy of record.
Little Falls: 5' above, 4th on record.

Pompton River...
Pompton Plains: 6' above, 4th on record.

Ramapo River...
Pompton Lakes: 5' above, 4th on record.

Rockaway River...
Boonton: 2' above, 3rd on record.

Saddle River...
Lodi: 4' above, 7th on record.

Wanaque River...
Wanaque: 3' above, 4th on record.

NEW YORK

Hudson River...
North Creek: 2' above, record flood.

Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
190. Jmedic
7:46 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
Nearing 60F here today. Bring on Spring!
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 100
189. pittsburghnurse
2:05 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
What a week this has been locally with flooding. Today we have sunshine and relative warmth. I do hope March is kinder to us here on out. I have a dry basement company coming out to give me an estimate on waterproofing the finished basement. Keeping my fingers crossed for no more serious rain until I can get this problem solved.
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
188. pittsburghnurse
2:02 PM GMT on March 12, 2011
Just saw on the news that effects of the quake were detectable by instrumentation even locally here in Western Pennsylvania.
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
187. ADCS
11:57 AM GMT on March 12, 2011
I remember hearing something about a large airmass coming over from Japan in the near future. Any possibility that this disperses the nuclear fallout from the plant that's in meltdown over a greater area than what is normal?
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 105
186. listenerVT
6:57 AM GMT on March 12, 2011
Have a gander at this:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsw w/Quakes/quakes_all.php
Scroll down to where the 8.9 quake happened.
Then scroll up slowly.
There have been sooooooooo many aftershocks you'd be hard-pressed to count them.
Moreover, note that there have also been some quakes in other places around Japan,
including some in the 6 range on the WEST side of Japan. Spooky!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5561
185. listenerVT
2:13 AM GMT on March 12, 2011
The Big Wave by Pearl S. Buck was written in 1948.
The most amazing thing about this book is that when a young boy loses his entire family and village in a tsunami, his best friend's father tends him. When it takes a long time for the stricken child to waken and heal, the friend's father explains to his son that the boy will waken when his grief has healed enough. The body is wise, he says. It is a very tender story, well ahead of its time psychologically, and impressive in the tenderness an elder man is deemed capable of.
I highly recommend this to all people who are aching after the tsunami.

http://www.fantasticfiction.co.uk/b/pearl-s-buck/ big-wave.htm

P.S.: Pearl Buck died in 1973 in Danby, Vermont.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5561
184. TrentonThunder
11:08 PM GMT on March 11, 2011
A few 4" plus rainfall amounts from the last storm

MARYLAND
Long Green 4.61"
Churchville 4.52"
Norrisville 4.22"
Hickory 4.04"

NEW JERSEY
Charlotteburg 5.37"
Franklin Lakes 5.12"
West Milford 5.06"
Oakland 5.03"
Jefferson 4.86"
Charlottesburg 4.82"
Milton 4.79"
Rockaway 4.25"
Butler 4.20"
Arendtsville 4.15"
Hardyston 4.10"

NEW YORK
Phonecia 5.30"
West Shokan 5.30"
Hunter 5.00"

PENNSYLVANIA
Hazleton 5.10"
Mount Pocono 5.08"
Coolbaugh 4.45"
Meckesville 4.37"
Blakeslee 4.14"
Walnutport 4.02"
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
183. originalLT
3:58 PM GMT on March 11, 2011
Terrible about what happened in Japan, I'm glad Hawaii has gotten thru the tsunami apparently OK. I received a total of 1.79" of rain with this system. That large area of rain did swing thru SW CT. overnight. I did get some minor amounts of water in my basement.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7920
182. Hoynieva
3:07 PM GMT on March 11, 2011
I was watching live web cams of the smaller tsunami waves coming ashore on the Hawaiian islands and it's just amazing to see entire reefs exposed as the water is sucked out ahead of the next onslaught of waves. Wild stuff.

Poor people in Japan, those videos of cars, houses and ships being tossed around like beach balls reminds us how insignificant we all are.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1519
181. goofyrider
2:07 PM GMT on March 11, 2011
Morning

Approx 1.1-1.2 in here from yesterday till 0800.
Winds not to bad but surf yesterday was roaring with 5-6 ft plunging waves at 4-5 sec.
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2890
180. zotty
1:04 PM GMT on March 11, 2011
an 8.9 earthquake... insanity. that is alike a hurricane coming ashore with, oh, 200 mph sustained winds.

white plains, ny has had two 3"+ rain events in 5 days. Let it all come now in March so we can enjoy April and May!
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 774
179. TheRasberryPatch
12:28 PM GMT on March 11, 2011
I ended with 2.40" of rain. Looks like Blizz and I had very similar rain amounts

Campbelltown, PA

God Bless all those souls in the path of the earthquake and tsunami
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6275
174. Zachary Labe
10:50 AM GMT on March 11, 2011
Storm total of 2.36in of rain here.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15135
173. listenerVT
7:51 AM GMT on March 11, 2011
An 8.9 Earthquake has struck 80 miles off the coast of Japan, 6 miles deep. There IS a tsunami. 30 minutes after the quake, buildings in Tokyo were still swaying...231 miles from the epicenter!


http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id= 13110884&page=1


http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsw w/Quakes/usc0001xgp.php (Click on "MAPS"!)
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5561
172. originalLT
5:34 AM GMT on March 11, 2011
At 12;30AM I am at the extreme Eastern edge of a huge area of rain that is moving almost due North, this area extends way down the entire coast to North Carolina. Just 10 miles to my East, in Norwalk CT. where my son lives, he is not getting any rain, and hasn't for some hours. So far for the day I have received 0.98". Now just some very light rain, but it is windy, SE at 10-20mph. with higher gusts. I can see where P451 has been getting blasted with very heavy rain, and I have not.Baro. is down to 29.79", Temp. 46.5F
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7920
171. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:33 AM GMT on March 11, 2011
x
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
170. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:23 AM GMT on March 11, 2011
Quoting TheF1Man:
Keeper thanks for answering my questions(your post #148).
Also, I'm able to see some, but not all of your graphs. For the ones that do not work, it just shows "X." Strange..
the X's are old images that have been deleted so not to clutter up blog or slow down loading time
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
169. TheF1Man
4:15 AM GMT on March 11, 2011
Keeper thanks for answering my questions(your post #148).
Also, I'm able to see some, but not all of your graphs. For the ones that do not work, it just shows "X." Strange..
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 682
168. crowe1
4:11 AM GMT on March 11, 2011
.87" rain on top of 4" snow = spring in the North East. Wind is picking up too, high gust of 24mph a short time ago.


Sacandaga Lake, Broadalbin, New York (PWS)
Updated: 2 sec ago
Light Rain
39.7 °F
Light Rain Mist
Windchill: 34 °F
Humidity: 96%
Dew Point: 39 °F
Wind: 11.0 mph from the East
Wind Gust: 14.0 mph
Pressure: 29.94 in (Steady)
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 15 Comments: 922
167. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:05 AM GMT on March 11, 2011
x
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
166. pittsburghnurse
3:46 AM GMT on March 11, 2011
Quoting PhillySnow:
Hey all! Raining quite hard; very windy making it very dramatic. No chance of snow here, lows only to the 40's.

I'd take your snow off your hands if I could, Pittsburgh Nurse. You really have wanted it to end since mid-February; figures you're the one getting more!


Sorry Philly, You KNOW I'd love to oblige you. Bottom line is East to West, North to South we're all just all wet tonight.
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
165. Hoynieva
3:35 AM GMT on March 11, 2011
Things got much more interesting when night fell. TT was spot on. I'm glad someone still follows these when there isn't much snow involved. But that backside does look cold and white.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1519
163. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:05 AM GMT on March 11, 2011
Quoting 1900hurricane:
I can't help but notice that the entire state of Pennsylvania is essentially one big flood warning.


yeah flooding rains
then 8 inches of wet snow
then freeze which makes it all ice
by end of weekend temps will be falling into the 10 to 15 range with chills of -10 to 0 by late sunday into monday
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
162. 1900hurricane
2:58 AM GMT on March 11, 2011
I can't help but notice that the entire state of Pennsylvania is essentially one big flood warning.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11694
161. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:34 AM GMT on March 11, 2011
x
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
160. PhillySnow
2:34 AM GMT on March 11, 2011
Hey all! Raining quite hard; very windy making it very dramatic. No chance of snow here, lows only to the 40's.

I'd take your snow off your hands if I could, Pittsburgh Nurse. You really have wanted it to end since mid-February; figures you're the one getting more!
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1253
159. pittsburghnurse
2:14 AM GMT on March 11, 2011
I am crying "uncle". Winter storm warning for 4 to 8" after flooding rain, then to turn back to rain after the snow. Snow is expected to be wet and heavy.

Am bummed, sick of wet, cold, snow, rain. Really over it guys. Seriously was over it back at the beginning of February.
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
158. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:52 AM GMT on March 11, 2011
X
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
157. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:34 AM GMT on March 11, 2011
x
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665

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