Winter Outlook 2010-2011...

By: Zachary Labe , 7:59 PM GMT on March 05, 2011

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The bus jerked and swayed bump after bump on the lonesome Wyoming interstate. Mile after mile of flat land as the rain continued to lash against the windows. The clouds hung dark and low in a steady dreary state. It was beginning to get later in the afternoon as we continued to search for somewhere to stop for lunch. Driving out in the western United States is completely different than in the east. Signs of 'next rest stop 90 miles' are common instead of the megalopolis east coast. The rain and wind continue to whip the bus before finally the tour guide noticed as advancing to a very small town (if you want to call it that). The bus leaned to pull into a small diner alongside a two-pump gas station. It was the typical small town dinner on a dreary, rainy day with a few locals sitting up along the bar drinking a cup of coffee with a family or two in a booth eating lunch. A quick glance at the menu offered nothing unusual, just a few all American staples. The rain continued heavy lashing briefly against the window while coffee was being made in small pots in front of the kitchen. The smells of a typical diner were in full effect. But there remained a hidden feeling of frustration in the locals. Hope seems lost.

Small town America is not quite the thriving community that was noticed years ago. Here in the East, old coal mine and steel boom towns are dying. Rural America remains in many areas some of the most desparate areas of poverty across the United States. The threat of rising gas prices continues to ache more at these communities lost to history. Crime has risen in these once quiet communities and jobs remain difficult to find with the loss of the forgotten industries of their past. I have been fortunate enough to travel to many places and experiences all different types of subcultures. Major news items always seem to have our attention. Yet stories of the closing of a family run business go by the wayside. It is the little things that matter. It is the little things that are the foundation for this nation.

Anyways below is a repost of my original winter forecast for the months of December, January, and February. Overall the forecast had major errors are this can likely be pointed straight back to the anomalous negative NAO/AO during the months of December and January carving the path for brutal cold air across much of the nation.

Winter Outlook 2010-2011...(December, January, February)


(South Mountain- 21 February 2010)

Ah, the sounds of shoveling and snow blowers in the early morning will soon become the norm as old man winter blows across the western hemisphere. After anomalous snowfall during the season of 2009-2010, a peak back at snowy years has quickly remerged in our short term memory banks. For those located along the I-95 corridor south of the Mason-Dixon line, historical odds show a near 1 in 200 chance of a another seasonal snowfall year such as the one before. For those north of that line, there have been several seasons which have featured snowier conditions than last season. None the less for many, the month of February will be one to tell the grandchildren after a series of low pressures matured off the eastern seaboard. The pattern was emphasized by a starkly negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation). The NAO is teleconnective value, which takes into account differing regions of air pressure in the northern Atlantic located near the Icelandic Low and Azores High Pressure. The strengths of these associated areas including positions affect the mean NAO throughout the entire year. As the polar jet begins to drop across the northern United States towards the winter months, the NAO has direct affects on long term wavelength patterns downstream dictating short term and long term weather patterns. Unfortunately the NAO is not able to be predicted accurately more than a two week period or so in advance, reducing its helpfulness it long term weather pattern predictions. But on occasions, trends are able to be noted to support possible long term NAO tendency predictions. More on this subject will be discussed below on implications for the upcoming winter.

Of other importance note is the SO (Southern Oscillation) status of the 2009-2010 winter, which remains completely polarized from this current time last year. The strong El Nino peaked around mid December with SST anomalies near +2C SD for Nino region 3.4. Counter affects globally have been evident through the past six months, as one of the strongest El Ninos on record continues to have residual effects. Planet Earth so far has been dominated by global temperatures peaking near the highest mean on record since records have been kept since 1979. But this is very common with strong El Ninos. 1998 featured the hottest year on record globally, again directly correlated to the anomalous and infamous El Nino of that year. While strong El Ninos are typical to bring warm temperatures surging throughout a plethora of the United States during the winter, the anomalous negative NAO allowed the warmth to stay suppressed. El Ninos often feature an active subtropical jet, so the combination of upstream blocking and moisture from the south created the catalyst for the record snowfall.

But Fall 2010 is in a complete disposition from last year at this time. It was evident last winter was going to be a very snowy year for the Middle Atlantic with the predominant negative NAO and active southern stream courtesy of the El Nino. Tides have quickly changed this year making this seasonal forecast quite unique. First let me begin with a quick summary on the average Middle Atlantic region winter...

An average winter in Pennsylvania consists of many different types of winter weather. Winters in Pennsylvania are more severe than middle Atlantic winters and Ohio valley winters, but less severe than neighboring New England winters. On average the first snowflakes fall in mid to late October in the northwestern part of the state. And the last snowflakes typically fall in the northwestern part of the state in early May. Frost season lasts from early October to mid May in most areas. The geographic regions of Pennsylvania play a major part in snow totals and temperatures.

("Courtesy of NOAA")
There are two regions of Pennsylvania that see significantly higher snow totals than the rest of the state. The Laurel Highlands and Northwest Mountains see snow totals well over 100inches every winter. In extreme winters snow may be on the ground into June with seasonal totals of over 200inches. The seasonal snow total record is held in Corry, Pennsylvania of 237inches. The monthly snow total record is held in Blue Knob, Pennsylvania with 96inches of snow. Corry is found in the northwest mountains and Blue Knob is a ski resort found in the Laurel Highlands. Blue Knob is the highest ski able mountain in Pennsylvania. Below is a map of average seasonal snow totals in Pennsylvania.

("Courtesy of NOAA")
Different types of winter storms affect the state of Pennsylvania, clipper systems, lake effect snow outbreaks, nor'easters, advection snows, and etc. The coldest month is typically January statewide. And the snowiest month statewide is typically February. Northwest Pennsylvania typically sees a majority of their snows in Lake Effect snow outbreaks. While eastern Pennsylvania sees most of their snows from coastal storms. When coastal storms come up the coast many areas in Pennsylvania can see major snowstorms. The Poconos typically see the most snow from coastal storms due to their elevation aid to precipitation totals. Some of the greatest storm total snowfall records are actually held in eastern Pennsylvania and not in the northwest Snowbelt regions. The highest average seasonal snow average is found in Corry, Pennsylvania with an average of 118inches. While the low seasonal snow total is found in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania with 21inches of snow. As far as temperatures go the coldest temperatures are found in the Alleghany Plateau region with the lowest temperature every recorded in Pennsylvania was in Smethport with -42degrees. Temperatures typically dip below freezing every day from November to March statewide. Extreme cold outbreaks typically occur around mid to late January. At times warm thaws may occur, but they are rare and sparse. As for ice storms they typically occur in December when the sun's rays are at their lowest. Very odd winter weather features occur each year including thunder snows, etc. and thunder snows are like thunderstorms but with snow instead of rain. Snow rates up to 5inches can occur. Thunder snows are mostly likely associated with frontal passages and lake effect snows. As far as winds, typically northwest winds setup on the coldest of winter days and can gust up to 50mph. Wind chills as low as -25degrees are felt almost at least once in the mountains of Pennsylvania. On average winds gust to 30mph several times each month. For ice on waterways, many northern lakes and rivers solidly freeze every winter. For southern areas ice forms every winter, but does not necessarily become very thick. During extreme winters even southern regions can see ice thicknesses of over a foot. The most extreme winter storms that affect Pennsylvania are nor'easters though. They affect large areas of the state with high winds and heavy precipitation. On rare occasions snow totals of over 35inches have occurred with snowdrifts as high as 6ft in many areas of eastern Pennsylvania. Winters in Pennsylvania overall are relatively severe, with geographic regions playing a major part in average snow totals and cold temperatures. Weather for parts of Maryland and Delaware could be considered a bit more uniform due to the size of the states. Maryland is a bit more varied thanks to some unique geographic features. Western Maryland particularly in Garret County is home to some extremely heavy snow thanks to its favorable upslope location allowing orographic lift to aid in heavy snow over the 2000ft+ elevations. Over 100inches of snow falls each year in parts of the county near popular resort areas such as Deep Creek. Heading east in Maryland crosses several large mountain ranges near the Cumberland Gap, the Potomac Highlands, and the Blue Ridge Mountains heading towards Hagerstown which sees a varied snowfall each season averaging around 30inches of snow less than that of most of southern Pennsylvania, excluding Philadelphia. Heading south and east towards Baltimore and Washington DC snowfall totals immensely fall off to averages from 15-20inches with similar numbers in Delaware. The palliating effects of warmth from the Atlantic allow for slightly low totals as they featured more mixed precipitation events.

I am going to dive right into the heart of the forecast this year, but likely the most difficult... the ENSO regime. For those not familiar, the ENSO is a measure of sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific in correlation with direct and indirect monsoon precipitation trends. These anomalies and patterns often feature global affects and are used in long term weather pattern predictions. La Ninas featured cooler than normal SST anomalies, while El Ninos featured warmer than normal SST anomalies.

("Courtesy of NOAA")
Global computer models had been indicating the reemergence of a strong La Nina for this upcoming Fall by about the beginning of summer. The CFS clearly indicated the threat, but such a dramatic swing from one of the strongest El Ninos on record to a strong La Nina seemed unusual and unlikely. Well SST began to cool through the summer, and by the middle of June they were at the standard deviation threshold for being classified as a La Nina. But it remained unofficial, as those readings must stand for at least three months to be classified. Well three months later and SST anomalies remain well below normal. In fact I am bold enough to signal these anomalies as reaching the minimum strong threshold. The current ONI (Oceanic Nino Index) has already reached a JJA (June, July, August) reading of (-0.6) The ONI index is a general mean of the Nino region 3.4 sea surface temperatures. It is my favorite indicator to keep track of the ENSO status. For data back to 1950... Link. Interestingly enough referencing several strong La Ninas such as 2007-2008 already shows this current La Nina stronger at this date than those years.

Strong La Nina years for a JJA ONI Mean...
2007- (-0.4)
2000- (-0.4)
1954- (-0.8)
1950- (-0.8)

(Keep these years in the back of your mind). Dramatic swings in SST anomalies are difficult to note and few years remain similar. In fact what remains unique about this La Nina is actually the location. A weak westerly wind burst has actually favored a slight rise in sea surface temperatures on the western end of the measured equatorial Pacific regime. Currently the lower SSTs remain east based, and this appears to be making for an easterly based strong La Nina. What does this mean? Well essentially many are familiar hearing about the west-based El Nino of last winter. This helped to cause direct influences on the local weather patterns in the western hemisphere. But an east based ENSO event typically has slightly fewer influences being dispositional. Still though a strong La Nina will be a dominate player in the upcoming winter. What makes the forecast difficult is there are zero analogs that correspond to this year’s SST anomaly SST depressions. A few matches to 1950-1951 and 1954-1955 emerge, but that is all.

So first check is strong La Nina, but the most important driver in the winter regime is the highly variable teleconnective indices. First off, it is important to note the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) has resurged back down to negative values. This index monitors SST anomalies in the northern Pacific and can be closely followed based on 10-year trends. I had recent ideas that the PDO was beginning to show signs to tip to positive starting last fall, which it did courtesy of the El Nino. But now with it surging negative again, it is clear the decadal negative cycle has yet to end. A negative PDO is often associated with a warmer pattern for the central and eastern United States with cooler conditions to the west. It is closely in correspondence with the shorter term PNA (Pacific/North American Oscillation). Another teleconnection already mentioned is the NAO, which again is all interconnected with the other indices. Through most of the summer the PNA and NAO have been steady excluding an early August hiccup...

PNA...


NAO...


They have clearly pointed to a positive PNA and negative NAO regime. In winter, this would lean towards troughing over the east coast and ridging over the west coast of the United States. But during the summer, these teleconnections have a much less influence on the global wavelength pattern and therefore go unnoticed. It remains clear that the NAO generally remains dominated negatively. Last year in fact it reached the lowest negative reading in nearly fifty years during December and early January; this coupled with the United Kingdom featuring one of their coldest winters in nearly 30 years. While many say forecasting the NAO is highly impossible, I do feel there are a few important trends that can be detected. I have been monitoring monsoonal patterns in the Indian Ocean along with the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and have noted possible correlations to a continued negative NAO regime. I do believe the NAO will feature a general upswing pattern though by the end of December. While short swings to negative and positive and vice versa are possible... my general NAO forecast is...

December- (-1SD)
January- (-+0SD)
February- (+1.5SD)

This being said, I do not think the NAO will reach any negative anomaly such as that of last winter. Still, the NAO may be the saving grace for snowfall in the Middle Atlantic during favored wavelength periods. Also the AO (Arctic Oscillation) is another player and again has generally been negative to neutral through most of the Summer. I expect this continue through much of the winter. Recent satellite images and statistics continue to show increasing cooler temperatures in that region along with end to the rapid dwindling sea ice levels.


("Couresty of NSIDC)

As noted above, sea ice levels are relatively close to last years at this time and continue to remain higher than the record lows of 2007 and 2008. A continued upswing in levels is likely as the negative AO remains imminent for the next week or more. Eurasia snow levels also continue to remain near normal values and nothing of any worth noting. Same for Canadian snow levels, which are beginning to recover after a record low during this past winter and summer. Cooler air courtesy of the negative AO weather patterns have allowed for recent snowfall in the northern portions of that region. ECMWF and GFS guidance continue to indicate cooler than normal temperatures in this region, which will continue to aid in a building snowpack.

Of important and controversial note remains the solar field. Low sun spot cycle 21 continues to plague astronomers and climatologists on residual effects on planet Earth. The topic remains highly controversial as some completely disagree in any affects on global temperatures. But excluding the strong El Nino this summer, which allowed global temperatures to surge, the general global trend has been about a (-0.2)-(-0.4)C drop in global statosphere temperatures for this past decade under the extremely low sunspot regime. Activity continues to remain dull, with very little to no sunspot reports daily. My personal opinion remains that sunspots do affect climate globally. The sun is the catalyst for weather and energizes the Earth along with heat from the inner core. Any change in the solar output of the sun is bound to have some type of effect on the Earth's weather. The sunspot minima also argues against finding any analog with a strong La Nina coupled right after a strong El Nino. This will likely for tail some interesting weather patterns.


("Courtesy of SpaceWeather")

Global models continue to indicate a variable pattern through the winter with ECMWF monthly reports showing near normal precipitation and near normal temperatures for the three meteorological winter months. The CFS model also remains similar showing cooler conditions during the first half of winter followed by a warming trend towards February. It is though interesting to note, the CFS shows a definite favorability towards continued Greendland Blocking (negative NAO) and higher thermal heights over the western United States.


("Courtesy of NOAA")

Finally I just wanted to point out that I have been recently following GFS verification charts closely. As many already know, the GFS underwent a recent major upgrade increasing resolution, parameter boundaries, etc. The model has actually been performing quite well during the past weeks, especially in the tropics often outperforming the ECMWF. Recently for weather patterns across the Middle Atlantic, the convective feedback QPF problems have been eliminated and the model does not produce as many outrageous 384hr solutions. But please note... it does contain a WARM bias after 180hrs. Unlike the previous GFS, the updated GFS now as a warm long term bias instead of a cold bias.

So what does all of this information mean? Well it portrays the volatility of this upcoming winter season at its best. We have a strengthening east-based La Nina coupled with a negative NAO regime in a sunspot minima decade. Analogs are in relative inexistence this season, so global patterns will play the major role in the forecast. La Ninas often feature mild and sometimes very dry winters for the Middle Atlantic. In recent memory La Ninas have caused some very poor snowfall department winters especially along I-95. My forecast for this winter 2010-2011 will maintain an interesting and slightly uncertain approach.

Temperature Monthly Anomalies...
December- (+0.4F)
January- (+1.1F)
February- (+1.5F)

Snowfall Monthly Anomalies...
December- (115% of normal)
January- (90% of normal)
February- (45% of normal)

I am forecasting a very mild winter, especially towards the later half as the La Nina and pesky GOA (Gulf of Alaska) low undergo troughing over the western United States. But the negative NAO regime may allow for periods of snowy weather, especially in late November and December. The biggest question remains on how dry the weather pattern will be. The east-based La Nina tends to leave me to believe that we will avoid the normal La Nina dry spell for the most part, but this remains uncertain. I also believe there will be periods of severe arctic blasts, especially across the central northern Plains, which will likely average below to well below normal. The negative AO will offer these cold blasts, and they will modify moving eastward. This will allow for likely at least 2-3 one week periods in the Middle Atlantic this winter for very cold weather and near record lows at times. It is often common in La Nina patterns to receive this cold blasts behind storm systems that track through the Ohio Valley. But in general warmer patterns will prevail between the colder outbreaks. I am taking a variable storm track forecast this year with no preferred location. The pattern will be hostile and active with great temperature contrasts. Yes there will also be a dominate southeast ridge. The strength of this southeast ridging will determine the snowfall placements northwest of the low pressures along the east coast. I also believe it is possible to see a dramatic upswing in snowfall totals from the Mason-Dixon line on northward with dramatically lower totals to the south. For more information see winter of 2000-2001. The threat of several mix precipitation and ice storms remains higher than normal this year and will likely be featured several times this winter under cold air damming scenarios. All in all a general La Nina winter is likely courtesy of the anomalous strength already this early in the Fall. But important to note is the NAO and easterly placement of the SST deviations. This may allow the winter not too be a total disaster for many areas. For those expecting a record breaking winter, it is not likely for areas in the Middle Atlantic. New England may do fairly well, especially in northern portions which escaped the brunt of last winter. As always I will be busy posting away throughout the entire winter. My college application process is just about done, so I will finally begin to have some more free time just in time for my favorite weather season. Keep in mind out of my three winter outlooks, this one has the lowest confidence levels. So far the other three turned out well, so we shall see. As usual a verification blog will be posted at the end of the meteorological winter in February.

"Here north of Harrisburg 2010 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 12
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 10
Tornado Watches- 2
Tornado Warnings- 1
Total Thunderstorms- 18

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 4
Flood Warnings- 4
Monthly Precipitation- 3.10inches
Yearly Precipitation- 29.64inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 5
Excessive Heat Watches- 1
Excessive Heat Warnings- 1
90degree days- 38
Highest Temperature 101F (x2)

For the final section, I thought it would be interesting to post some archived maps of the four major nor'easters of our last winter from Penn State Meteo. EWall...
December 19, 2009...


February 6, 2010...


February 10, 2010...


February 26, 2010...


"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2010-2011 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 0in of snow
Monthly Total (November)- Trace
Monthly Total (December)- 0.6in
Monthly Total (January)- 18.90in
Monthly Total (February)- 6.45in
Monthly Total (March)- 3.0in
Seasonal Total- 28.95in
Winter Weather Advisories- 9
Winter Storm Warnings- 2
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 2

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 23.7F
Lowest Low Temperature- -1.7F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First accumulating snow - December 10 - 0.50in of snow
Clipper light snow - January 7-8 - 2.25in then another 1in of snow
Double Barrel Low - January 11 - 4.5in of snow
Coastal Low - January 17-17 - 1.8in of snow/sleet
Arctic Front - January 20-21 - 2.1in of snow
Upper level/coastal low - January 26 - 5.75in of snow
Two clippers - January 28-29 - 1.5in of snow
Overrunning Snow - February 21 - 5.0in of snow
Rain to snow - March 6 - 3.0in of snow

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Nice!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting originalLT:
Boy, just looking at the radar, there will be some massive snow totals from north central PA, north and northeast through NYS and VT and NH by noon on monday. Will be real interesting to hear about some of those totals. Snowinvermont is right, 24" easily.



Well, I was pretty close. In the last 5 hours, we got 11 more inches and have 20" of new powder and still snowing heavily. Roads impassible. Looking at the radar, we could see another 8-10" and probably top 30" for this monster. Up here it is 17 degrees and the powder is not too heavy at all! Beautiful stuff!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Did not get as much rain as expected here in So Md but the wind howled most of the night. Sun coming up and should be a nice day. Now, for the relatives that live up north, a totally different story. Will check in with Maine later.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Boy, just looking at the radar, there will be some massive snow totals from north central PA, north and northeast through NYS and VT and NH by noon on monday. Will be real interesting to hear about some of those totals. Snowinvermont is right, 24" easily.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7608
Solid 8" in Jeffersonville at midnight and it is heavy snow now with visibility about 1/8 mile. Got stuck on my hill driving home from work(no plows out) and had a six mile detour to make it home. I wouldn't be surprised to see 24" when I wake up. It's at least 2-3" an hour now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
34 and snowing heavily with big fat wet flakes sticking a little here in Annandale, VA.

Goodnight all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We are at about 2.5-3" as of 10:30. It's hard to get a good measurement due to the strong wind blowing the snow and my unwillingness to stay out very long:)

Current Conditions(11:00pm)

Sacandaga Lake, Broadalbin, New York (PWS)

Snowin' and blowin'
29.7 °F
Snow Ice Pellets
Windchill: 18 °F
Humidity: 98%
Dew Point: 29 °F
Wind: 23.0 mph from the NE
Wind Gust: 27.0 mph
Pressure: 29.83 in (Falling)
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 15 Comments: 921
I'm Hampden Township PA, and we have a coating of sleet!!! Crazy!!! Still coming down.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TrentonThunder:


That outlook was originally out in October I believe. He reposted it for review / reanalysis etc...




oh ok he sould have put reanalysis etc on top of his blog then here what he sould have said on top


reanalysis of 2010-2011 winter outlook


but all well
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This was a real surprise snowstorm for parts of Pennsylvania. 8"-14" in the north central mountains out of nowhere. I'm sure a ton of people were caught completely off gaurd.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
LivelySnow: There's a song that you should download (or you tube) by Carole King called "Snow Queen" from the album "The Carnegie Hall Concert" (1971), since that's the name of your photo.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Just checking in from Stamford CT. , its up to 54F here and just starting to fall(reached 55F) the Barometer is down to 29.69F and we are having moderate to heavy rain at times, so far we've had 1.37". Winds are mostly SE at 10-15 mph. Probably we'll get around 2" by the time it is over. Just had a wind gust up to 35mph.!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7608
Quoting LivelySnow:
Rain/snow line just does not want to come far enough south here in Harrisburg. Now at 34.


You could end things with a coating overnight.

Edit: Expect the changeover between 11pm, lasting till about 2am. Up to a half inch possible.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Rain/snow line just does not want to come far enough south here in Harrisburg. Now at 34.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting crowe1:
TT: Yeah, near the south end, right about where the Lake splits. On the Wundermap, KNYBROAD2 is about 1/4mi from me. We usually end up near the low end of the snow totals due to elevation, I'm sitting at 782', so 10" looks about right. It started snowing about 5pm. I just measured and we've got 1/2" accum. so far. (edit to add: that's on exposed driveway, surfaces that were already covered have about .75".)


You could see 10" in the 6 hour period between 7pm and 1am.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Quoting snowinvermont:


Some serious plowing tonight and tomorrow. We're in a bit of a lull here at BTV now. 1 1/2 vsby. Probably 1/2 foot so far.


BTV office reported 4.9" at 6:53 pm, probably around 5.5" at 8:30 pm. You could see a foot of snow in the 6 hour period between 10pm and 4am.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
The rain has been torrential for several hours and the wind is whistling an intangible tune.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
Quoting Tazmanian:
winter outlook?



a little late huh?


That outlook was originally out in October I believe. He reposted it for review / reanalysis etc...
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Seems like maybe the cold front is moving though a little quicker? I am sure it won't make it to worcester though :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TT: Yeah, near the south end, right about where the Lake splits. On the Wundermap, KNYBROAD2 is about 1/4mi from me. We usually end up near the low end of the snow totals due to elevation, I'm sitting at 782', so 10" looks about right. It started snowing about 5pm. I just measured and we've got 1/2" accum. so far. (edit to add: that's on exposed driveway, surfaces that were already covered have about .75".)
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 15 Comments: 921
winter outlook?



a little late huh?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TrentonThunder:
NWS BTV 4:08 pm

THIS LOW WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
VERMONT. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO FEET ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST VERMONT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS VERY IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF MOISTURE
EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST. STRONG
SHORTWAVE ALSO EVIDENT OVER THE CAROLINAS. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT
OCCURRING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THIS LOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST...REACHING VICINITY OF NYC
AROUND 06Z...AND THEN CAPE COD BY 12Z MONDAY. 700 MB BECOMES
CLOSED THIS EVENING AND LIFTS ACROSS FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. MUCH
OF FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BAND OF SIGNIFICANT FRONTOGENESIS FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD TONIGHT...AND THIS COUPLED WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCUR IN ABOUT A 6 HOUR
PERIOD OVERNIGHT WHEN RATES UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES AN HOUR CAN
EXPECTED.

SNOW WILL IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES WITH
DIMINISHING NORTHERLY BREEZES. MIN TEMPS A LITTLE CHILLY FOR EARLY
MARCH...RANGNING FROM 5 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW ZERO.



Some serious plowing tonight and tomorrow. We're in a bit of a lull here at BTV now. 1 1/2 vsby. Probably 1/2 foot so far.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting crowe1:
TT: I'm thinking more like 10-16".


Are you right near the south end of the lake? If so, NWS Albany has you at 10.2" (at 900 ft) with your CWA at 8"-16".

Snowing there yet? If not its knocking on your door descending the hills.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
NWS BTV 4:08 pm

THIS LOW WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
VERMONT. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO FEET ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST VERMONT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS VERY IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF MOISTURE
EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST. STRONG
SHORTWAVE ALSO EVIDENT OVER THE CAROLINAS. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT
OCCURRING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THIS LOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST...REACHING VICINITY OF NYC
AROUND 06Z...AND THEN CAPE COD BY 12Z MONDAY. 700 MB BECOMES
CLOSED THIS EVENING AND LIFTS ACROSS FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. MUCH
OF FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BAND OF SIGNIFICANT FRONTOGENESIS FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD TONIGHT...AND THIS COUPLED WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCUR IN ABOUT A 6 HOUR
PERIOD OVERNIGHT WHEN RATES UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES AN HOUR CAN
EXPECTED.

SNOW WILL IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES WITH
DIMINISHING NORTHERLY BREEZES. MIN TEMPS A LITTLE CHILLY FOR EARLY
MARCH...RANGNING FROM 5 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW ZERO.

Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
TT: I'm thinking more like 10-16".
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 15 Comments: 921
Quoting snowinvermont:



Forecast for Jeffersonville where I live. Just upped it again!

Tonight
Snow. Snow accumulation of 10 to 14 inches. Lows around 15. North winds around 10 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.

Monday
Cloudy...snow...mainly in the morning. Total snow accumulation of 14 to 24 inches. Highs in the mid 20s. North winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent



I agree. Most of the rivers up here are still completely ice covered and even with the rain last night, haven't even started break-up. If we get a quick meltout later this month, watch out!!!
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18Z NAM actually brings flurries to the Philadelphia immediate northwest suburbs, up to an inch in the LSV, 4" to the Laurels, and up to 12" in Tioga and Bradford counties in PA.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Quoting crowe1:
We've had rain all day, .49". It just changed to snow. Quite a complex system. High for the day was 48F just before noon.

Sacandaga Lake, Broadalbin, New York (PWS)

Light Rain
35.8 °F
Windchill: 28 °F
Humidity: 92%
Dew Point: 34 °F
Wind: 16.0 mph from the NNE
Wind Gust: 17.0 mph
Pressure: 29.94 in (Falling)


You should get about 6"-7" starting after dark tonight right?
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
nm
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
We've had rain all day, .49". It just changed to snow. Quite a complex system. High for the day was 48F just before noon.

Sacandaga Lake, Broadalbin, New York (PWS)

Light Rain
35.8 °F
Windchill: 28 °F
Humidity: 92%
Dew Point: 34 °F
Wind: 16.0 mph from the NNE
Wind Gust: 17.0 mph
Pressure: 29.94 in (Falling)
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 15 Comments: 921
Quoting snowinvermont:



Forecast for Jeffersonville where I live. Just upped it again!

Tonight
Snow. Snow accumulation of 10 to 14 inches. Lows around 15. North winds around 10 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.

Monday
Cloudy...snow...mainly in the morning. Total snow accumulation of 14 to 24 inches. Highs in the mid 20s. North winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent


That latest amount would account for the "cutting it 10 inches short" statement from earlier this morning. Actually, I'd just take that 14" right out of there and go with 18"-24". This will be one of the biggest snowstorms of the season but will trigger the least amount of noise because it's well off the I-95 corridor and half of the heavy snow accumulations will extend into Canada.

BTV should end up at #5 or #6 seasonal snowfall on record after this storm. Might take a shot at #2 all-time before snow season is done up there. Would need one more big one like this to start talking about #1 all-time. Records date back 128 years to 1884.

The heavy snowpack starts becoming more dangerous regarding flooding as you get farther into spring. A quick warmup with heavy rain and ice jams spells enormous trouble. I was at Green Mountain Coffee in Waterbury VT and they had that historical flood history section with the height of the water line. Yikes! Way up there...
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Quoting TrentonThunder:


That's more like it...



Forecast for Jeffersonville where I live. Just upped it again!

Tonight
Snow. Snow accumulation of 10 to 14 inches. Lows around 15. North winds around 10 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.

Monday
Cloudy...snow...mainly in the morning. Total snow accumulation of 14 to 24 inches. Highs in the mid 20s. North winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting snowinvermont:


AND NOW THE UPDATED FORECAST!!! THEY SHOULD JUST HIRE ME!


The National Weather Service in Burlington has extended the
Winter Storm Warning... until 1 PM EST Monday.

* Locations... central and northern Champlain Valley as well as
parts of northern Vermont.

* Hazard types... heavy snow.

* Accumulations... 10 to 20 inches of snow... with isolated higher
amounts possible.



That's more like it...
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Quoting snowinvermont:

TT---I am at BTV now and it is 1/4 mile vis and heavy snow. I think at this rate, even BTV will top a foot and I would think Mt.Mansfield will top 2 feet or more. Temps falling and right now it is 28F and north winds at 12mph. Big friggin storm!!!!!


AND NOW THE UPDATED FORECAST!!! THEY SHOULD JUST HIRE ME!


The National Weather Service in Burlington has extended the
Winter Storm Warning... until 1 PM EST Monday.

* Locations... central and northern Champlain Valley as well as
parts of northern Vermont.

* Hazard types... heavy snow.

* Accumulations... 10 to 20 inches of snow... with isolated higher
amounts possible.

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RP- The greens where I played sound like they were a bit better than yours, but not good by any means. I too had 6 3-putts which shows how well I was striking the ball otherwise.

Pouring here and jealous of Vermont!
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18. bwi
Well, I officially put the snow shovels back in the shed today. It sure feels like Spring is just around the corner down here in Maryland. You northerners can enjoy the late-season snow, but I think we're done down here for the year. (Hopefully, I'm wrong, and we'll get a surprise, but I'm doubtful.)

Overall, I'd rate our season is not great, but better than expected. Some near-misses to keep things interesting, a couple small snowfalls that were fun, one big concrete snowfall that was great, and one annoying, but not too bad ice storm. Pretty good for a winter that was supposed to be a lot milder.

See you next year I hope!
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Quoting TrentonThunder:
NWS Burlington is really undercutting model guidance by about 10 inches for their total snowfall forecast. Trying to figure out why they're going so low. I can't figure it out, maybe it's a continuity thing, maybe they're putting a lot of emphasis on wet and warm ground. The discussion from 6am this morning notes that the GFS seems to be the most on track precipitation wise but it lays down a wide swath of 18" plus accum with 2 inch per hour rates in consecutive runs. NAM, ECMFW, CMC, and UKMET are fairly similar. ???

I think you guys might have an earlier changeover than expected. At 10am, snowing in Plattsburgh NY and Highgate VT, both at 30F. Burlington at 30F with light freezing rain, down from a morning high of 48F. Snow knocking on the door.

NWS FORECAST SNOW
Burlington: 7.5"
Jeffersonville: 8.4"
Mt Mansfield: 10" plus
Stowe: 9.9"

TT---I am at BTV now and it is 1/4 mile vis and heavy snow. I think at this rate, even BTV will top a foot and I would think Mt.Mansfield will top 2 feet or more. Temps falling and right now it is 28F and north winds at 12mph. Big friggin storm!!!!!
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BTV changed over to Snow by 11am which is 8 hours ahead of schedule as of last night and 2 hours ahead of schedule as of this morning.

Edit: (11:30 am Update) BTV Heavy Snow, 0.2 Mi Vis
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
NWS Burlington is really undercutting model guidance by about 10 inches for their total snowfall forecast. Trying to figure out why they're going so low. I can't figure it out, maybe it's a continuity thing, maybe they're putting a lot of emphasis on wet and warm ground. The discussion from 6am this morning notes that the GFS seems to be the most on track precipitation wise but it lays down a wide swath of 18" plus accum with 2 inch per hour rates in consecutive runs. NAM, ECMFW, CMC, and UKMET are fairly similar. ???

I think you guys might have an earlier changeover than expected. At 10am, snowing in Plattsburgh NY and Highgate VT, both at 30F. Burlington at 30F with light freezing rain, down from a morning high of 48F. Snow knocking on the door.

NWS FORECAST SNOW
Burlington: 7.5"
Jeffersonville: 8.4"
Mt Mansfield: 10" plus
Stowe: 9.9"
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Heavy - I got out yesterday. It was my first time out since the Saturday before Thanksgiving. I could have shot better. Way too many 3 putts. I must have had 9 3-putts. The greens were that bad. You'd hit a putt and sometimes it bounced a way that wasn't expected. Also, they were ridiculously slow. You could have a 20 footer and leave it 5 feet short and the have that bounce that would take you out of the hole. It's early season and probably all the foot prints on the spongy surface made them so bad.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
RP, we've had numerous flood watches and warnings these past couple of weeks. My finished basement had some water intrusion up through the floor drain during one heavy rain. I'm going to have to cap that sucker off. The new laminate flooring isn't even 3 months old.

Lightly snowing with a coating on surfaces. Temps in the low 30s. Tomorrow should be similar.
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
i played a surprise 18 holes on Friday RP. Haha! Shot an 83. Not bad for the 1st time out in almost a year. 2 birdies on the back! Sweet!

Pouring here right now and 56.
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raining steady...0.30" of rain so far.

Pittsburghnurse - i hope the weather isn't too wet for the month...i like to get the soil turned at least once by the end of the month and then another time by mid April for early season vegetables, like onions, brocolli, cauliflower and potatoes. I am still using onions from last season.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
Also, as I posted at the end of the "old"blog, welcome Landsdale Tim, please post anytime , let us know what's going on weatherwise around you.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7608
Blizz, those first two paragraphs are beautifully written, well said! As for the long range forecast, at least you have the "guts" to put it out there. One has to just learn from experience and keep on plugging. There are so many variables to consider, but you have the "head" to figure out what went wrong and will take that into consideration next time and beyond as you move foreward in your meteorological career. LT
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7608


looks like at the end of the run the deep cold air is lifting up and out as spring slowly takes hold
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54398
I think your winter outlook generally verified pretty well. Nice job Blizz. What about the warm season? Any thoughts?

We're pretty solidly in an early Spring pattern. Looks to be pretty wet.
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639

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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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