The Northeast Weather Blog...

wow! nice photos of Cornell Blizz. I am so excited for you that you will get to go there :0)

Thanks for the pictures Blizz. You are going to like that area with all of the natural beauty it has to offer.

Looks like a beautiful campus. I love the falls and dam and the river/streams. What great surroundings. Is there fishing there?

Wish the models would clear up the mess for Friday and the weekend. I'd love to get out and go to Middle Creek. The snow geese are flying all around the past couple of weeks. I guess they are itching to fly north. And seeing the swans fly right over head Saturday is always a delight.

Quoting originalLT:
If you read NYCvort's blog, who is pretty knowledgeable about meteorology, he is not that hopefull for one more "good-one" this late winter. But weather being weather, one cannot be 100% sure as you go out into the future, 1-3 weeks out.

Finally had some time to read NYCvort's blog - thanks for the tip! Interesting analysis.

Nice Pictures Blizz, but where are the pictures of the girls?

P451 thanks for that about Canada, i'm sure some of that translates down here to us. It's nice to get those very warm days, but then when it turns colder the next day, it feels even worse!

Hi all! Or should I say "some." :) Winds are really gusting. Up to around 23 mph so far.

Nice pics, Blizz! I actually went to Cornell for grad school in atmospheric science. Art DeGaetano was my advisor. I loved having Mark Wysocki as a teacher, too!
Good luck there--I assume you want to focus more on forecasting? Even though I had to take some met classes, my research focused more on climate variability and impacts.

Update: I forgot to mention that I love reading your blog! You're so knowledgeable about this stuff already and you, by far, seem to have way more understanding of how the short-term weather models work than I do :)

Quoting TheF1Man:
P451 thanks for that about Canada, i'm sure some of that translates down here to us. It's nice to get those very warm days, but then when it turns colder the next day, it feels even worse!

and we have one of those cold days/nights now
tonight down to near 10f with chills of -10f
then back on the coaster and up to 45f on fri and sat with rain

...RECORD FEBRUARY SNOWFALL FOR BURLINGTON VT...

THE SNOWFALL TOTAL FOR FEBRUARY 2011 AT THE BURLINGTON
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 43.1 INCHES. THIS RECORD SNOWFALL
EXCEEDS THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 42.3 INCHES SET IN 2008.

BTV seasonal total stands at 98.5" to date. Need 1.5" to crack 100". Things trending northwest with that Sunday timeframe storm. Still, should crack 100" by the end of this weekend.

FEBRUARY 2011 NOR'EASTER ALLEY STATISTICAL CLIMATE REVIEW

Column 1: Degrees F Above or Below Average Monthly Mean Temperature / Column 2: Percentage of Monthly Average Snowfall

(100% = exact average, 50% = half of average, 200% twice the average)

MAINE
Caribou: +0.1 / 141%
Houlton: -0.5 / NA
Millinocket: +1.1 / NA
Bangor: -2.3 / 221%
Portland: -1.2 / 211%

NEW HAMPSHIRE
Concord: -2.1 / 240%

VERMONT
Burlington: +1.2 / 276%

MASSACHUSETTS
Boston: -1.0 / 165%
Worcester: -1.0 / 169%

RHODE ISLAND
Providence: -1.2 / 94%

CONNECTICUT
Hartford: -2.2 / 141%
Bridgeport: -0.8 / 65%

NEW YORK
Massena: +2.1 / NA
Watertown: -0.1 / NA
Glens Falls: -2.5 / NA
Rochester: -0.8 / 150%
Syracuse: -0.7 / 216%
Buffalo: -1.3 / 192%
Albany: -1.0 / 245%
Binghamton: +0.8 / 204%
Poughkeepsie: +1.2 / NA
Islip: +0.3 / NA
Manhattan (CP): +1.4 / 63%
N. Queens (LAG): +1.7 / 49%
S. Queens (JFK): +1.4 / 38%

PENNSYLVANIA
Erie: -1.0 / 206%
Scranton: -0.5 / 159%
Williamsport: +0.4 / 146%
Mount Pocono: +3.7 / NA
Allentown: +1.3 / 46%
Pittsburgh: +1.3 / 166%
Reading: +1.5 / NA
Harrisburg: +0.8 / 64%
Philadelphia: +2.4 / 88%

NEW JERSEY
Newark: +2.6 / 49%
Trenton: +2.8 / 24%
Atlantic City: +4.0 / 67%

DELAWARE
Wilmington: +1.7 / 78%
Georgetown: +4.0 / NA

MARYLAND
Glen Burnie (BWI): +3.0 / 39%
Salisbury: +2.5 / NA

WEST VIRGINIA
Morgantown: +3.5 / NA
Martinsburg: +1.3 / NA
Parkersburg: +2.4 / NA
Elkins: +3.6 / 41%
Huntington: +3.1 / 21%
Charleston: +4.2 / 28%
Beckley: +4.8 / 39%
Bluefield: +4.8 /

VIRGINIA
Dulles: +3.3 / 11%
Arlington (DC): +3.6 / 10%
Wallops Island: +3.2 / NA
Richmond: +5.3 / NA
Lynchburg: +3.2 / NA
Roanoke: +4.1 / NA
Blacksburg: +5.0 / NA
Norfolk: +3.6 / NA
Danville: +4.1 / NA

NORTH CAROLINA
Elizabeth City: +2.1 / NA
Greensboro: +4.1 / 9%
Raleigh: +4.8 / 13%
Asheville: +4.4 / 11%
Cape Hatteras: +3.2 / NA
Charlotte: +2.8 / 0%
New Bern: +2.6 / NA
Lumberton: +5.2 / NA
Wilmington: +1.5 / 0%

Quoting TrentonThunder:
...RECORD FEBRUARY SNOWFALL FOR BURLINGTON VT...

THE SNOWFALL TOTAL FOR FEBRUARY 2011 AT THE BURLINGTON
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 43.1 INCHES. THIS RECORD SNOWFALL
EXCEEDS THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 42.3 INCHES SET IN 2008.

BTV seasonal total stands at 98.5" to date. Need 1.5" to crack 100". Things trending northwest with that Sunday timeframe storm. Still, should crack 100" by the end of this weekend.

TT- Wicked snow squall went through my place around noon and we picked up 3" in about 20-30 minutes. Still planning on trying Camel's (L)Hump tomorrow as it looks like the last storm had more sleet/snow up in the high elevations and very little freezing rain like we had at my house. Hence, no nasty crust ruining the nice powder.

Hopefully it won't become Camel's Stump.

Quoting HeavySnow:
Hopefully it won't become Camel's Stump.

It was a beautiful hike up to Camel's Hump...not Stump/Bump/Rump....We skinned up to an adjacent mountain that was 3000' and had an awesome view of the Hump looking south. Skiing down was an adventure as there was a crust layer about 3" down which played hell with the turns in the trees. We all survived!
I still can't download pics here. Still can't download a portrait. I'll have to call WU and find out why.

Wow, P451, didn't know you were such a "Wild and crazy guy!!":) I guess if you have to travel somewhere to your SW in the US, you'll have to make a big detour around NJ! Yeah, CT where I am sucks on I95, alot of traffic and never ending construction.

P451:
I don't usually criticize on here, but that's just dangerous to everyone on the road. Sorry, but anyone doing 95 of 100mph should be pulled over and ticketed heavily.
End of lecture.

Just got in from doing some yard work, mostly picking up branches that fell over the winter, and now exposed, because I would estimate now, that 90% or so, of the snow cover is gone now. Just some cover on the north side of the house, and some mounds on the south facing side of my house around where the driveway is, but the rest is pretty clear of snow.

Northern VT forecast....
Sunday
Rain. Snow in the afternoon. Light snow accumulation. Breezy with highs in the lower 40s. Southwest winds 20 to 25 mph... becoming northwest around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.

Sunday Night
Snow. Snow may be heavy at times. Additional heavy snow accumulation. Lows in the lower 20s. North winds around 10 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent.

Monday
Snow likely. Additional light snow accumulation possible. Highs in the mid 20s. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Here we go again. Wish the rain wouldn't preceed the snow but this is that time of year!!!! Looks like Monday could be a great ski day.....

Looking like 8"-14" in the northern half of Vermont late Sunday afternoon into Monday. Lower end in the Champlain Valley, heaviest end in the Northeast Kingdom. Lots of room for change...

I'm making Winter 2010-2011 (Dec-Jan-Feb) dot maps (not evenly spaced resolution dot maps) based on the hundreds of National Weather Service stations across the country which will include departures in temperature, snowfall and precipitation. I'll try to post them at a later date. I've only done snowfall for the east coast down to NC and northwest into some of the northern plains so far. The number of above average snowfall is staggering. So far I've got 81 above average SN versus 11 below average SN. It's really ashame that there is that little sliver of below average running from the LSV down into Baltimore / Washington and southwest along the blue ridge in central/western Virginia. They just didn't join the party on an epic year. I'm anxious to see how the rest of this map turns out...

224. TrentonThunder 5:23 AM GMT on March 05, 2011
Looking like 8"-14" in the northern half of Vermont late Sunday afternoon into Monday. Lower end in the Champlain Valley, heaviest end in the Northeast Kingdom. Lots of room for change...

Sounds about right. Hoping today's rain won't hurt the snowpack. I have about 16-18" of pretty thick/heavy snow on the ground with an 1/8-1/4" crust on top but the mountains have alot more so any rain shouldn't be a problem. Looks like the temps will be cold Sunday night/Monday morning so I'll get some runs in Monday am before work and then heading to Florida on Tuesday. Best of both worlds!

I'm on the edge of the 12-14" line, NWS is saying 5-10" of very heavy, wet snow for my area (S Adirondacks).
(edited to remove snow map)

Quoting snowinvermont:
224. TrentonThunder 5:23 AM GMT on March 05, 2011
Looking like 8"-14" in the northern half of Vermont late Sunday afternoon into Monday. Lower end in the Champlain Valley, heaviest end in the Northeast Kingdom. Lots of room for change...

Sounds about right. Hoping today's rain won't hurt the snowpack. I have about 16-18" of pretty thick/heavy snow on the ground with an 1/8-1/4" crust on top but the mountains have alot more so any rain shouldn't be a problem. Looks like the temps will be cold Sunday night/Monday morning so I'll get some runs in Monday am before work and then heading to Florida on Tuesday. Best of both worlds!

Dang I'm at 64F @ 11:15 am under the clear blue.

Conditions look nice this (Saturday) evening on Mt Washington, NH. 25F, winds sustained 75 mph, gusts to 110 mph.

NWS Burlington knocked things down a little for valley locations. Looks like this will be highly dependant on elevation. The peak of Mt Mansfield should see the change to snow just after midnight tonight bringing the bulk of the total precipitation there as heavy snow. Rain looks to change to snow around 7pm tomorrow for the valley floors and last into Monday. Heaviest snow to fall in the valleys Sunday evening. You could go skiing tomorrow with heavy snow at the top and heavy rain when you reach the bottom lol. That would be interesting... Burlington should crack the 100" mark by 10pm tomorrow.

Crowe 1, NWS has Sacandaga Lake changing over in the late afternoon / early evening tomorrow. Mountains above 2000 feet to your northwest changeover in the early afternoon.

NWS Forecast Totals...(still plenty of room for change)
Jay Peak, VT (3858 ft) 15"
Burlington, VT: (200 ft) 5.3"
Jeffersonville, VT: (587 ft) 6.9"
Mt Mansfield, VT (4393 ft) 18"
Stowe, VT (712 ft) 7.2"

Mount Marcy, NY (5344 ft) 18" plus
Just northwest of Sacandaga Lake, NY above 2000 ft: 10" plus
Sacandaga Lake, NY (770 ft) 8.6"

Widespread minor to moderate river/creek flooding with very isolated major flooding looks to be a real issue this go around. Third time's the charm...

Northwestern New England and far northern New York may stay cool enough and then change over to snow in time to keep flooding in check, but minor flooding still a slight possibility there.

NWS Forecast Totals...(still plenty of room for change)
Jay Peak, VT (3858 ft) 15"
Burlington, VT: (200 ft) 5.3"
Jeffersonville, VT: (587 ft) 6.9"
Mt Mansfield, VT (4393 ft) 18"
Stowe, VT (712 ft) 7.2"

Now I wish I had a later flight out Tuesday as that will be THE day to catch some serious powder!

63.1 degrees and sunshine in Brooklyn. Lovely day for a stroll.

Nice here in Stamford CT. too,55F, but on satellite, looks like the clouds are closing in.

So sad to lose this fine young Vermonter.


http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/article/201103 02/NEWS02/303010002/Ryan-Hawks-freeskier-from-Sout h-Burlington-dies-after-crash-on-backflip-attempt# pluckcomments

A lurker finally making a comment from Lansdale PA (NW philly burbs). Not bad out, 58F and cloudy, light wind. warm enough to be out with shorts on at least!

Where can I find out information on what the upcoming warm season will bring this region in terms easy to understand?

Welcome Lansdale Tim. Please comment when ever you like. Fill us in if your area gets any unusual weather, or just report in your weather conditions, helps give us all an idea of whats going on and where.