February 21-22 Winter Storm Observation Blog...

By: Zachary Labe , 2:06 AM GMT on February 22, 2011

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"Current Temperature"


"Current Dewpoint"


"Current Surface Map and Weekly History of Jet Stream Position"


"Regional Radar"


"Regional Satellite"


"Regional Advisories"


"Soil Moisture Anomalies and 5-day Precipitation Amounts from Hydro Prediction Center"


"Severe Weather Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"


"12hr Estimated Precipitation"


"Forecast Max Temperatures"


"Forecast Min Temperature"


"Forecast Weather at 2pm"


"Current Storm Reports"


"Fire Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"

(All maps courtesy of NOAA and Penn State Meteo.)

"Forecast Model Links"
-NAM model 12z...Link
-GFS model 12z...Link
-NMM model 12z...Link
-SREF model 9z...Link

"Severe Weather Links"
-Atmospheric Soundings Skewt T charts...Link
-SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pages...Link
-Public Spotter Reports for State College NWS...Link
-Severe Weather Model Forecast indices...Link
-Severe Weather Parameter Definitions...Link

"Flooding Links"
-Automated Pennsylvania Rainfall Recording Stations...Link
-Flash Flooding Guidance...Link
-HPC Forecasts for Excessive Rainfall...Link
-Hydrology Predictions for Lakes, Rivers, and Streams...Link

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2010-2011 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- About 5.0in of snow
Monthly Total (November)- Trace
Monthly Total (December)- 0.6in
Monthly Total (January)- 18.90in
Monthly Total (February)- 6.45in
Seasonal Total- 25.95in
Winter Weather Advisories- 9
Winter Storm Warnings- 2
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 2

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 23.7F
Lowest Low Temperature- -1.7F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First accumulating snow - December 10 - 0.50in of snow
Clipper light snow - January 7-8 - 2.25in then another 1in of snow
Double Barrel Low - January 11 - 4.5in of snow
Coastal Low - January 17-17 - 1.8in of snow/sleet
Arctic Front - January 20-21 - 2.1in of snow
Upper level/coastal low - January 26 - 5.75in of snow
Two clippers - January 28-29 - 1.5in of snow
Overrunning Snow - February 21 - 5.0in of snow

Cornell University (Blizzard92)
Cornell University
Cornell University (Blizzard92)
Cornell University
Cornell University (Blizzard92)
Cornell University
Cornell University (Blizzard92)
Cornell University
Cornell University (Blizzard92)
Cornell University
Cornell University (Blizzard92)
Cornell University
Cornell University (Blizzard92)
Cornell University
Cornell University (Blizzard92)
Cornell University
Cornell University (Blizzard92)
Cornell University
Cornell University (Blizzard92)
Cornell University
Cornell University (Blizzard92)
Cornell University
Cornell University (Blizzard92)
Cornell University
Cornell University (Blizzard92)
Cornell University
Cornell University (Blizzard92)
Cornell University
Cornell University (Blizzard92)
Cornell University
Cornell University (Blizzard92)
Cornell University

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236. originalLT
1:39 AM GMT on March 06, 2011
Welcome Lansdale Tim. Please comment when ever you like. Fill us in if your area gets any unusual weather, or just report in your weather conditions, helps give us all an idea of whats going on and where.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
235. pittsburghnurse
7:46 PM GMT on March 05, 2011
Where can I find out information on what the upcoming warm season will bring this region in terms easy to understand?
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
234. LansdaleTim
6:38 PM GMT on March 05, 2011
A lurker finally making a comment from Lansdale PA (NW philly burbs). Not bad out, 58F and cloudy, light wind. warm enough to be out with shorts on at least!
Member Since: February 5, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 69
233. snowinvermont
6:34 PM GMT on March 05, 2011
So sad to lose this fine young Vermonter.


http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/article/201103 02/NEWS02/303010002/Ryan-Hawks-freeskier-from-Sout h-Burlington-dies-after-crash-on-backflip-attempt# pluckcomments
Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 83
232. originalLT
6:12 PM GMT on March 05, 2011
Nice here in Stamford CT. too,55F, but on satellite, looks like the clouds are closing in.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
231. Hoynieva
5:04 PM GMT on March 05, 2011
63.1 degrees and sunshine in Brooklyn. Lovely day for a stroll.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1521
230. snowinvermont
5:03 PM GMT on March 05, 2011
NWS Forecast Totals...(still plenty of room for change)
Jay Peak, VT (3858 ft) 15"
Burlington, VT: (200 ft) 5.3"
Jeffersonville, VT: (587 ft) 6.9"
Mt Mansfield, VT (4393 ft) 18"
Stowe, VT (712 ft) 7.2"

Now I wish I had a later flight out Tuesday as that will be THE day to catch some serious powder!
Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 83
229. TrentonThunder
4:52 PM GMT on March 05, 2011
Widespread minor to moderate river/creek flooding with very isolated major flooding looks to be a real issue this go around. Third time's the charm...

Northwestern New England and far northern New York may stay cool enough and then change over to snow in time to keep flooding in check, but minor flooding still a slight possibility there.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
228. TrentonThunder
4:17 PM GMT on March 05, 2011
Quoting snowinvermont:
224. TrentonThunder 5:23 AM GMT on March 05, 2011
Looking like 8"-14" in the northern half of Vermont late Sunday afternoon into Monday. Lower end in the Champlain Valley, heaviest end in the Northeast Kingdom. Lots of room for change...

Sounds about right. Hoping today's rain won't hurt the snowpack. I have about 16-18" of pretty thick/heavy snow on the ground with an 1/8-1/4" crust on top but the mountains have alot more so any rain shouldn't be a problem. Looks like the temps will be cold Sunday night/Monday morning so I'll get some runs in Monday am before work and then heading to Florida on Tuesday. Best of both worlds!




Dang I'm at 64F @ 11:15 am under the clear blue.

Conditions look nice this (Saturday) evening on Mt Washington, NH. 25F, winds sustained 75 mph, gusts to 110 mph.

NWS Burlington knocked things down a little for valley locations. Looks like this will be highly dependant on elevation. The peak of Mt Mansfield should see the change to snow just after midnight tonight bringing the bulk of the total precipitation there as heavy snow. Rain looks to change to snow around 7pm tomorrow for the valley floors and last into Monday. Heaviest snow to fall in the valleys Sunday evening. You could go skiing tomorrow with heavy snow at the top and heavy rain when you reach the bottom lol. That would be interesting... Burlington should crack the 100" mark by 10pm tomorrow.

Crowe 1, NWS has Sacandaga Lake changing over in the late afternoon / early evening tomorrow. Mountains above 2000 feet to your northwest changeover in the early afternoon.

NWS Forecast Totals...(still plenty of room for change)
Jay Peak, VT (3858 ft) 15"
Burlington, VT: (200 ft) 5.3"
Jeffersonville, VT: (587 ft) 6.9"
Mt Mansfield, VT (4393 ft) 18"
Stowe, VT (712 ft) 7.2"

Mount Marcy, NY (5344 ft) 18" plus
Just northwest of Sacandaga Lake, NY above 2000 ft: 10" plus
Sacandaga Lake, NY (770 ft) 8.6"


Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
227. crowe1
2:47 PM GMT on March 05, 2011
I'm on the edge of the 12-14" line, NWS is saying 5-10" of very heavy, wet snow for my area (S Adirondacks).
(edited to remove snow map)
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 15 Comments: 922
226. snowinvermont
1:56 PM GMT on March 05, 2011
224. TrentonThunder 5:23 AM GMT on March 05, 2011
Looking like 8"-14" in the northern half of Vermont late Sunday afternoon into Monday. Lower end in the Champlain Valley, heaviest end in the Northeast Kingdom. Lots of room for change...

Sounds about right. Hoping today's rain won't hurt the snowpack. I have about 16-18" of pretty thick/heavy snow on the ground with an 1/8-1/4" crust on top but the mountains have alot more so any rain shouldn't be a problem. Looks like the temps will be cold Sunday night/Monday morning so I'll get some runs in Monday am before work and then heading to Florida on Tuesday. Best of both worlds!


Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 83
224. TrentonThunder
5:23 AM GMT on March 05, 2011
Looking like 8"-14" in the northern half of Vermont late Sunday afternoon into Monday. Lower end in the Champlain Valley, heaviest end in the Northeast Kingdom. Lots of room for change...

I'm making Winter 2010-2011 (Dec-Jan-Feb) dot maps (not evenly spaced resolution dot maps) based on the hundreds of National Weather Service stations across the country which will include departures in temperature, snowfall and precipitation. I'll try to post them at a later date. I've only done snowfall for the east coast down to NC and northwest into some of the northern plains so far. The number of above average snowfall is staggering. So far I've got 81 above average SN versus 11 below average SN. It's really ashame that there is that little sliver of below average running from the LSV down into Baltimore / Washington and southwest along the blue ridge in central/western Virginia. They just didn't join the party on an epic year. I'm anxious to see how the rest of this map turns out...
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
223. snowinvermont
11:25 PM GMT on March 04, 2011
Northern VT forecast....
Sunday
Rain. Snow in the afternoon. Light snow accumulation. Breezy with highs in the lower 40s. Southwest winds 20 to 25 mph... becoming northwest around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.

Sunday Night
Snow. Snow may be heavy at times. Additional heavy snow accumulation. Lows in the lower 20s. North winds around 10 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent.

Monday
Snow likely. Additional light snow accumulation possible. Highs in the mid 20s. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Here we go again. Wish the rain wouldn't preceed the snow but this is that time of year!!!! Looks like Monday could be a great ski day.....
Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 83
222. originalLT
10:19 PM GMT on March 04, 2011
Just got in from doing some yard work, mostly picking up branches that fell over the winter, and now exposed, because I would estimate now, that 90% or so, of the snow cover is gone now. Just some cover on the north side of the house, and some mounds on the south facing side of my house around where the driveway is, but the rest is pretty clear of snow.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
221. crowe1
2:16 PM GMT on March 04, 2011
P451:
I don't usually criticize on here, but that's just dangerous to everyone on the road. Sorry, but anyone doing 95 of 100mph should be pulled over and ticketed heavily.
End of lecture.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 15 Comments: 922
220. originalLT
1:54 PM GMT on March 04, 2011
Wow, P451, didn't know you were such a "Wild and crazy guy!!":) I guess if you have to travel somewhere to your SW in the US, you'll have to make a big detour around NJ! Yeah, CT where I am sucks on I95, alot of traffic and never ending construction.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
218. snowinvermont
10:41 PM GMT on March 03, 2011
Quoting HeavySnow:
Hopefully it won't become Camel's Stump.


It was a beautiful hike up to Camel's Hump...not Stump/Bump/Rump....We skinned up to an adjacent mountain that was 3000' and had an awesome view of the Hump looking south. Skiing down was an adventure as there was a crust layer about 3" down which played hell with the turns in the trees. We all survived!
I still can't download pics here. Still can't download a portrait. I'll have to call WU and find out why.
Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 83
217. Zachary Labe
10:47 AM GMT on March 03, 2011
Quoting TrentonThunder:
...RECORD FEBRUARY SNOWFALL FOR BURLINGTON VT...

THE SNOWFALL TOTAL FOR FEBRUARY 2011 AT THE BURLINGTON
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 43.1 INCHES. THIS RECORD SNOWFALL
EXCEEDS THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 42.3 INCHES SET IN 2008.

BTV seasonal total stands at 98.5" to date. Need 1.5" to crack 100". Things trending northwest with that Sunday timeframe storm. Still, should crack 100" by the end of this weekend.

Wow, Burlington has broken a lot of snow records recently especially after their largest snowstorm on record last winter from the upslope.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
216. HeavySnow
4:07 AM GMT on March 03, 2011
Hopefully it won't become Camel's Stump.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2990
215. snowinvermont
3:34 AM GMT on March 03, 2011
Quoting TrentonThunder:
...RECORD FEBRUARY SNOWFALL FOR BURLINGTON VT...

THE SNOWFALL TOTAL FOR FEBRUARY 2011 AT THE BURLINGTON
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 43.1 INCHES. THIS RECORD SNOWFALL
EXCEEDS THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 42.3 INCHES SET IN 2008.

BTV seasonal total stands at 98.5" to date. Need 1.5" to crack 100". Things trending northwest with that Sunday timeframe storm. Still, should crack 100" by the end of this weekend.


TT- Wicked snow squall went through my place around noon and we picked up 3" in about 20-30 minutes. Still planning on trying Camel's (L)Hump tomorrow as it looks like the last storm had more sleet/snow up in the high elevations and very little freezing rain like we had at my house. Hence, no nasty crust ruining the nice powder.
Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 83
214. TrentonThunder
1:25 AM GMT on March 03, 2011
FEBRUARY 2011 NOR'EASTER ALLEY STATISTICAL CLIMATE REVIEW

Column 1: Degrees F Above or Below Average Monthly Mean Temperature / Column 2: Percentage of Monthly Average Snowfall

(100% = exact average, 50% = half of average, 200% twice the average)


MAINE
Caribou: +0.1 / 141%
Houlton: -0.5 / NA
Millinocket: +1.1 / NA
Bangor: -2.3 / 221%
Portland: -1.2 / 211%

NEW HAMPSHIRE
Concord: -2.1 / 240%

VERMONT
Burlington: +1.2 / 276%

MASSACHUSETTS
Boston: -1.0 / 165%
Worcester: -1.0 / 169%

RHODE ISLAND
Providence: -1.2 / 94%

CONNECTICUT
Hartford: -2.2 / 141%
Bridgeport: -0.8 / 65%

NEW YORK
Massena: +2.1 / NA
Watertown: -0.1 / NA
Glens Falls: -2.5 / NA
Rochester: -0.8 / 150%
Syracuse: -0.7 / 216%
Buffalo: -1.3 / 192%
Albany: -1.0 / 245%
Binghamton: +0.8 / 204%
Poughkeepsie: +1.2 / NA
Islip: +0.3 / NA
Manhattan (CP): +1.4 / 63%
N. Queens (LAG): +1.7 / 49%
S. Queens (JFK): +1.4 / 38%

PENNSYLVANIA
Erie: -1.0 / 206%
Scranton: -0.5 / 159%
Williamsport: +0.4 / 146%
Mount Pocono: +3.7 / NA
Allentown: +1.3 / 46%
Pittsburgh: +1.3 / 166%
Reading: +1.5 / NA
Harrisburg: +0.8 / 64%
Philadelphia: +2.4 / 88%

NEW JERSEY
Newark: +2.6 / 49%
Trenton: +2.8 / 24%
Atlantic City: +4.0 / 67%

DELAWARE
Wilmington: +1.7 / 78%
Georgetown: +4.0 / NA

MARYLAND
Glen Burnie (BWI): +3.0 / 39%
Salisbury: +2.5 / NA

WEST VIRGINIA
Morgantown: +3.5 / NA
Martinsburg: +1.3 / NA
Parkersburg: +2.4 / NA
Elkins: +3.6 / 41%
Huntington: +3.1 / 21%
Charleston: +4.2 / 28%
Beckley: +4.8 / 39%
Bluefield: +4.8 /

VIRGINIA
Dulles: +3.3 / 11%
Arlington (DC): +3.6 / 10%
Wallops Island: +3.2 / NA
Richmond: +5.3 / NA
Lynchburg: +3.2 / NA
Roanoke: +4.1 / NA
Blacksburg: +5.0 / NA
Norfolk: +3.6 / NA
Danville: +4.1 / NA

NORTH CAROLINA
Elizabeth City: +2.1 / NA
Greensboro: +4.1 / 9%
Raleigh: +4.8 / 13%
Asheville: +4.4 / 11%
Cape Hatteras: +3.2 / NA
Charlotte: +2.8 / 0%
New Bern: +2.6 / NA
Lumberton: +5.2 / NA
Wilmington: +1.5 / 0%
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
213. TrentonThunder
1:21 AM GMT on March 03, 2011
...RECORD FEBRUARY SNOWFALL FOR BURLINGTON VT...

THE SNOWFALL TOTAL FOR FEBRUARY 2011 AT THE BURLINGTON
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 43.1 INCHES. THIS RECORD SNOWFALL
EXCEEDS THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 42.3 INCHES SET IN 2008.

BTV seasonal total stands at 98.5" to date. Need 1.5" to crack 100". Things trending northwest with that Sunday timeframe storm. Still, should crack 100" by the end of this weekend.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
212. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9:08 PM GMT on March 02, 2011
Quoting TheF1Man:
P451 thanks for that about Canada, i'm sure some of that translates down here to us. It's nice to get those very warm days, but then when it turns colder the next day, it feels even worse!
and we have one of those cold days/nights now
tonight down to near 10f with chills of -10f
then back on the coaster and up to 45f on fri and sat with rain
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
211. Hibiscus07
9:06 PM GMT on March 02, 2011
Nice pics, Blizz! I actually went to Cornell for grad school in atmospheric science. Art DeGaetano was my advisor. I loved having Mark Wysocki as a teacher, too!
Good luck there--I assume you want to focus more on forecasting? Even though I had to take some met classes, my research focused more on climate variability and impacts.

Update: I forgot to mention that I love reading your blog! You're so knowledgeable about this stuff already and you, by far, seem to have way more understanding of how the short-term weather models work than I do :)
Member Since: July 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 10
210. PhillySnow
9:00 PM GMT on March 02, 2011
Hi all! Or should I say "some." :) Winds are really gusting. Up to around 23 mph so far.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1276
209. TheF1Man
7:24 PM GMT on March 02, 2011
P451 thanks for that about Canada, i'm sure some of that translates down here to us. It's nice to get those very warm days, but then when it turns colder the next day, it feels even worse!
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 685
208. zotty
2:49 PM GMT on March 02, 2011
Nice Pictures Blizz, but where are the pictures of the girls?
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 776
205. Zachary Labe
10:44 AM GMT on March 02, 2011
Thanks everyone! There was about 12-15in of snow up there on Sunday, but melted with the rain to about 4-6in.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
204. PhillySnow
10:30 PM GMT on March 01, 2011
Quoting originalLT:
If you read NYCvort's blog, who is pretty knowledgeable about meteorology, he is not that hopefull for one more "good-one" this late winter. But weather being weather, one cannot be 100% sure as you go out into the future, 1-3 weeks out.

Finally had some time to read NYCvort's blog - thanks for the tip! Interesting analysis.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1276
203. TheRasberryPatch
9:38 PM GMT on March 01, 2011
Looks like a beautiful campus. I love the falls and dam and the river/streams. What great surroundings. Is there fishing there?

Wish the models would clear up the mess for Friday and the weekend. I'd love to get out and go to Middle Creek. The snow geese are flying all around the past couple of weeks. I guess they are itching to fly north. And seeing the swans fly right over head Saturday is always a delight.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
202. lawntonlookers
7:58 PM GMT on March 01, 2011
Thanks for the pictures Blizz. You are going to like that area with all of the natural beauty it has to offer.
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
201. Snowmog
7:40 PM GMT on March 01, 2011
wow! nice photos of Cornell Blizz. I am so excited for you that you will get to go there :0)
Member Since: February 1, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 143
200. MarylandGirl
6:44 PM GMT on March 01, 2011
Great pictures Blizz, looks like a great college should. Lots of history there. Still waiting for your surprise.......
Beautiful day here, warmer tomorrow but bright and sunny today....
Member Since: September 10, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 486
199. PhillySnow
6:43 PM GMT on March 01, 2011
Thanks for the pics, Blizz. I love that one with the waterfall going into what looks like a frozen, snow-covered pond. Cornell seems a sweet place to go to school - you'll certainly get some snow there! Congrats again.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1276
198. TheF1Man
4:31 PM GMT on March 01, 2011
Hi Lt, my studies are going well, but getting a bit tougher. It takes a continuous adjustment, but it's manageable, and having a great time as well. thanks for asking!

Nice pics Blizz!
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 685
197. originalLT
5:37 AM GMT on March 01, 2011
Great pics. Blizz, is that waterfall frozen in the second to last picture?
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
196. beell
3:40 AM GMT on March 01, 2011
Most awesome pictures, Bliz!
I really do get a sense of all that history and tradition.
Good Luck!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16925
195. weathergeek5
3:29 AM GMT on March 01, 2011
Nice Cornell pictures Blizz!!
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
194. TrentonThunder
3:12 AM GMT on March 01, 2011
Nice pics. That place looks ancient
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
193. TrentonThunder
3:09 AM GMT on March 01, 2011
Quoting snowinvermont:
Well, today's storm just plain sucked. Freezing rain, sleet, a little snow and now we have a pretty thick crust on top of all that nice powder from Friday. It never got warmer than the low 30's so only a little snowpack was lost but the conditions for backcountry took a nosedive. Was supposed to hike Camel's Hump on Thursday and ski down that might be in doubt.


You could end up with a Camel's Lump.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
192. TrentonThunder
3:07 AM GMT on March 01, 2011
Couple of records today in the northeastern half of the east coast.

* = Broken
T = Tie

Wilmington DE: 66 T
Atlantic City NJ: 70*
Norfolk VA: 79 T
Greensboro NC: 78*
Charlotte NC: 78 T
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
191. snowinvermont
2:25 AM GMT on March 01, 2011
Well, today's storm just plain sucked. Freezing rain, sleet, a little snow and now we have a pretty thick crust on top of all that nice powder from Friday. It never got warmer than the low 30's so only a little snowpack was lost but the conditions for backcountry took a nosedive. Was supposed to hike Camel's Hump on Thursday and ski down that might be in doubt.
Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 83
190. TrentonThunder
11:30 PM GMT on February 28, 2011
Quoting TheF1Man:
I would love one more snowstorm too nesnow, but I want 50s everday after that. This cold rain and flooding is getting to me.

Does anyone know the general outlook for march? Of course it can always have its surprises, but does appear to be any sort of pattern? Right now it just seems to snow and rain whenever it feels like.


March/Spring 2011 Outlook for the East Coast from North Carolina through Maine...

March 2011 Temperature Forecast: Equal chances of above or below average throughout.

March 2011 Precipitation Forecast: Above average for WV, western PA, western NY. Equal chances for above or below average elsewhere.

Spring 2011 Temperature Forecast: Above average inland NC, southern WV, southern 2/3 VA. Equal chances above or below average elsewhere.

Spring 2011 Precipitation Forecast: Below average extreme southern NC, equal chances of above or below average elsewhere.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
189. Drakoen
11:20 PM GMT on February 28, 2011
Looking at the 500mb wavelengths the models are split into two camps the GFS and UKMET vs. the Euro and the CMC. The main differences being the strength of and handling of the southern stream shortwave. The southern stream energy is stronger on the ECMWF and the CMC where on the UKMET and GFS it is almost non existent in favor of the northern stream energy producing a track of the low much further north than the ECMWF and GGEM models. The ECMWF shows phasing of the northern stream and southern stream allowing for the development coastal low likely a secondary off the low that tracks through the Ohio Valley.The GGEM is on the extreme side closing of the southern stream 500mb cyclone such that the system tilt nsegative and rides up just east of the Apps. What is notable about the 500mb wavelengths is not just the shortwave but the large height anomalies east of the Canadian Maritime which should prevent the storm from going out to sea.

Will have to watch the coming model runs. The teleconnections show the NAO becoming neutral and the PNA rising and becoming neutral. With the MJO possibly heading towards octant 8 this generally favors below average heights over the eastern portion of the country and more active weather.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30841
188. wxgeek723
11:08 PM GMT on February 28, 2011
Quoting HeavySnow:


Remind me again, how does 41.4 defeat 42?


Lol wasn't paying attention. I meant 42 very narrowly escaped defeat.

Nice storms rolled through at around 2:30. Everyone is saying they heard an EXTREMELY loud boom. Unfortunately I must have missed it because nothing I managed to see was that impressive.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3714
187. TrentonThunder
10:58 PM GMT on February 28, 2011
Quoting Drakoen:
New ECMWF 12z looks interesting with coastal cyclogenesis.





It is interesting, but have to be concerned about that brick wall of blocking and warmth along the coast and the best of the cold air too far up in Canada and the associated precipitation gets squashed between the two and stratifies almost meridianal from south to north along its front and never throws much back inland. That low has a lot of warm Atlantic air to work with. That is one serious block and that system may move almost due north at a snails pace. Bares watching, but way too warm for even moderate accumulations for any of us right now. This would be perfect for that last moderate/heavy snow and then I'm ready for spring. Not counting on it though and time is running out fast.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
186. PhillySnow
10:47 PM GMT on February 28, 2011
Quoting originalLT:
If you read NYCvort's blog, who is pretty knowledgeable about meteorology, he is not that hopefull for one more "good-one" this late winter. But weather being weather, one cannot be 100% sure as you go out into the future, 1-3 weeks out.

I know OriginalLT - but you can't blame a girl for wishing. :)
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1276

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