North American Mesoscale Model Verification on January 26-27...

By: Zachary Labe , 10:34 PM GMT on January 29, 2011

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The North American Mesoscale Model (NAM) is a high resolution model courtesy of the National Center for Environmental Prediction. Another very common and referenced name for the model is the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). They are the same model and run out to 84 hours. The purpose of the model is to run a higher resolution determining mesoscale features that often cannot be picked up by the global models due to their larger scale. The NAM can be run on an 80km resolution with a broad view of the United States, or 40km which allows the viewer to zoom in on a localized region to put up on mesoscale features. Also a very high resolution form of the NAM exists using a 12km parametric and can zoom into different states. The model is released four times a day at 0z, 6z, 12z, and 18z. Keep in mind that time is zulu or more commonly known as greenwich mean time.

Computer models are critical to forecasting the weather as they use parametric and other mathematical equations to derive the current and predicted state of the atmosphere using a physical and chemical explanation as the background for the predictions. The NCEP is associated with the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to be the developer of these computer models. Each meteorological organization worlwide uses their own developed computer models to serve as a basis for the forecasts. Without computer models, we are not able to derive predictions on the weather greater than 24 hours out.

Like all computer models, the NAM shows all layers of the atmosphere in maps determining positioning and speed of the jet stream, surface precipitation amounts (quantitive precipitation forecast QPF), temperatures throughout the entire core of the atmosphere, convective indices, simulated radars, etc. Due to the higher resolution of the NAM, several problems do exist. It often produces convective elements in many middle latitude cyclones and these are known as convective feedback problems. This is where it developed these unstable regions and often associates them as surface lows causing the surface depiction to be distorted. This was a problem in the recent prediction of the January 26-27 winter storm and will be noted below. Also the NAM has a tendency to produce higher than normal precipitation amounts. I typically find myself cutting totals nearly by 30% as shown on the NAM. Finally the NAM has a bias to overamplify a low pressure and close them off to early particularily on eastern United States cyclogenesis off the coast.

The January 26-27 winter storm featured many model headaches do to some interesting variables. Early on it appeared likely for a low pressure to track up inland along the coastal plain. There was a lacking 50/50 low, unfavorable position of the western trough axis, neutral NAO, natural baroclinicity along the coastline, and stale antecedent cold air mass. This would produce rain along I-95 with heavy snows inland. The 500mb synoptic pattern showed very strong signals for this time of setup with most computer model guidance also in support. The GGEM and ECMWF led the pack with the heavy snows from I-81 on westward. The GFS suffered major problems with varying solutions for each run. But then the computer models began to delay the storm. In fact it was delayed nearly 48-60 hours from the original starting time. This caused a different scenario to unfold. The lacking high pressure to the north was still a problem as the anticyclone zoomed east-northeast, but now a high pressure and associated shortwave out ahead of it allowed sunk east-southeast across the Midwest and western Great Lakes. This acted as a 'kicker' helping to push the cyclonegenesis farther off the coast. This in turn allowed for a colder scenario along with precipitation to occur farther east. Therefore a turn of events allowed for a major I-95 snowstorm with 6in+ totals from Washington DC to Boston. This was very fortunate for snow lovers in that corridor due to pure luck given the poor synoptic setup.

Given the NAM's high resolution, it often overanalyzes prognostics post hour 60. It tends to enhance QPF, overamplify lows, and pick up on mesoscale features that really do not exist. Therefore I typically throw out hours 60-84. It would be a rare event where you would find the NAM 84 hour verifying anywhere close to accurate. But in the near term range, the NAM does an excellent job locating temperature thermals, QPF ranges, and picking up on mesoscale features; coastal fronts, enhanced convection, deformation bands, etc. But in this recent storm, it suffered a plethora of problems and even the 6 and 12 hour surface maps had poor verification especially in the QPF department.

Let us first look at the actual accumulated precipitation totals for the storm.

Given this is a 24 hour accumulated precipitation amount, about .01-.1in of additional precipitation fell south of the Mason-Dixon line in the previous 24 hours.

Here are the preceeding NAM total QPF forecasts...


(January 24; 18z) (January 25; 6z)


(January 25; 12z) (January 25; 18z)


(January 26; 0z) (January 26; 6z)

As you can see, the NAM had a lot of variance with the northwestern sharp precipitation gradients. These tight gradients this year have been caused by the rapid intensification of the coastal lows allowing the heaviest moisture to be confined closer to the center of circulation. Also in this instance, a very cold and dry air mass along with associated cold front was quickly advancing southeast across the Great Lakes and was even picked up on by the 700mb RH charts. This allowed the flow out of the northwest to dry up some moisture for areas more inland.

The NAM simulated radar vs. the forecast QPF did not match up. Often the NAM simulated radar showed the heavier mesoscale bands lining up in northern Maryland and southern Pennsylvania where as it only showed total QPF to be .25in-.5in. In fact looking at total verification, the NAM did very well for its simulated radar.


(Actual NEXRAD National Radar) (6z NAM January 26 Simulated Radar)

The NAM did seem to have a hold on the 500mb map showing the negatively tilted trough producing the coastal low along with the placement of the upper level low and associated shortwave kicker just to the west.


(18z NAM January 24; 500mb) (0z NAM January 26; 500mb)

In general the differences in the 500mb maps were very subtle with just a general strengthening in the closed 500mb low, which verified a tad north of the January 24 18z model run.

The NAM did a very excellent job in identifying mesoscale band using the UUV/700mb RH charts.

(6z NAM January 26; 700mb)

It indentifed the enhanced snow growth over southeastern Pennsylvania up through New Jersey and New York City. The problems with the NAM generally existed in the QPF fields. The model likely suffered a very convective feedback issues in QPF totals. This is why it is important to note other maps than surface maps to help locate the heaviest precipitation. The 700mb map screamed that snow totals would be farther inland with the enhanced deformation band and UUV rates. In general the high resolution models handled this the best with the HRR scoring an amazing victory for QPF along with the ECMWF. The GFS/NAM did a very poor job for QPF, but as noted above QPF does not always tell the story. Sometimes it is important to note other layers of the atmosphere to help make a forecast. This point is why many forecasters missed the boat. Many forecasters (especially broadcoast meteorologists) are drawn to the easy to understand QPF/surface maps, but one has to look at all layers of the atmosphere to make a prediction.

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2010-2011 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 0-3in
Monthly Total (November)- Trace
Monthly Total (December)- 0.6in
Monthly Total (January)- 18.90in
Monthly Total (February)- 1.35in
Seasonal Total- 20.85in
Winter Weather Advisories- 7
Winter Storm Warnings- 2
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 2

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 23.7F
Lowest Low Temperature- -1.7F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First accumulating snow - December 10 - 0.50in of snow
Clipper light snow - January 7-8 - 2.25in then another 1in of snow
Double Barrel Low - January 11 - 4.5in of snow
Coastal Low - January 17-17 - 1.8in of snow/sleet
Arctic Front - January 20-21 - 2.1in of snow
Upper level/coastal low - January 26 - 5.75in of snow
Two clippers - January 28-29 - 1.5in of snow

Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011 (Blizzard92)
Melting begins...
Ice Storm 2011
Ice Storm 2011 (Blizzard92)
Melting begins...
Ice Storm 2011

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Nice 1/2 inch coating here in Burke VA (WSW of DC, 3 mi outside beltway).
Decorative.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Almost a half inch here in Annandale, VA. Still snowing a very fine snow.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2990
Germantown, MD - lots of virga, a few flurries here and there, but mostly virga. Temp 25.7F.
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1364. crowe1
Quoting TrentonThunder:
PhillySnow... The Adirondacks are very wild except for a few small towns here and there. Some of Adirondack Park and the high peaks areas are considered true wilderness, which is awsome. There are certain parameters to be met before an area is designated as true unspoiled wilderness. Lake Placid is cool. There is a lot more to do on the Vermont side of Lake Champlain. Ever been?...



I've gotta give a vote to the Adirondacks:)

Love Vermont too, though.
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Quoting TrentonThunder:


Oh ok, nice. You drove through Lake Champlain? You probably have one of those jeeps with the snorkle on it.

LOL! Funny man. :)
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Quoting PhillySnow:

Yes, both to Vermont and Lake Placid. I went to school up in Vermont, and have driven through Lake Champlain lots of times. We've thought of buying there. It's one of the few areas where lakefront houses are still affordable. We've gone to the Adirondacks for both winter vacations and hiking/camping in summer. I totally love those mountains. I work from home so could handle a somewhat isolated area, but I do need to fly out fairly regularly, so snowed-in wouldn't work.


Oh ok, nice. You drove through Lake Champlain? You probably have one of those jeeps with the snorkle on it.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
1361. bwi
Light snow in Greenbelt, MD. Would love to get an inch out of this. Radar really filling in North Carolina/outer banks region.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1407
28 and light snow with the ground totally whitened again. :)

Send more winter please!
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2990
Quoting TrentonThunder:
PhillySnow... The Adirondacks are very wild except for a few small towns here and there. Some of Adirondack Park and the high peaks areas are considered true wilderness, which is awsome. There are certain parameters to be met before an area is designated as true unspoiled wilderness. Lake Placid is cool. There is a lot more to do on the Vermont side of Lake Champlain. Ever been?...

Yes, both to Vermont and Lake Placid. I went to school up in Vermont, and have driven through Lake Champlain lots of times. We've thought of buying there. It's one of the few areas where lakefront houses are still affordable. We've gone to the Adirondacks for both winter vacations and hiking/camping in summer. I totally love those mountains. I work from home so could handle a somewhat isolated area, but I do need to fly out fairly regularly, so snowed-in wouldn't work.
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Quoting PhillySnow:

It'd be fun to do for one winter, but not at all practical for us working folks.


Yes, I was thinking the same thing. I would love to spend one winter there just to experience it! Couldn't live there...
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Snowing lightly here in NW DC. Ground is barely white again. Funny how our snow loving weather met almost swore we wouldnt see anything here in DC.

Hope the track pushes north a tad and we get a couple inches. Despite the general trend on here to cry UNCLE to the winter, not me. I say bring it on! Anyone who's tired of it push it down/up/over here to DC.

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Quoting P451:
Anyone see what British Columbia is facing?



That's why that is glacier country!
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Quoting TrentonThunder:


You start getting into the Ontario lake effect towards Old Forge and Watertown. You've really gotta love and be ready for neverending snow over there.

It'd be fun to do for one winter, but not at all practical for us working folks.
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PhillySnow... The Adirondacks are very wild except for a few small towns here and there. Some of Adirondack Park and the high peaks areas are considered true wilderness, which is awsome. There are certain parameters to be met before an area is designated as true unspoiled wilderness. Lake Placid is cool. There is a lot more to do on the Vermont side of Lake Champlain. Ever been?...
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Quoting testbenchdude:
Accuweather needs to dial their radar down a bit--I've noticed they tend to show a LOT of virga. For instance, it's showing a bunch of snow heading towards Philly right now, and the average layperson looking at that might get the heebee jeebees.

It's been bugging me, just needed to get that off my chest. :)


Expect a lot of overunning and virga in the mid-atlantic. Dry high pressure gonna eat it up until you get towards Del-Mar-Va.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Quoting PhillySnow:
Those Vermont snowfall averages are truly inspiring, TT! My husband and I are looking at either Vermont or the Adirondacks, so to compare:

Days Place Inches
30.5 Glens Falls 66.5
54.0 Lake Placid 104.4
52.9 Massena 73.3
75.1 Old Forge 194.7
47.0 Watertown 94.9

I think Vermont wins out, for snowfall considerations anyway. Those high peaks in NY are gorgeous!


Yeah, I've seen the best of both. Both are great. I'm drawn to the Burlington area and its suburbs for living. Adirondack High Peaks look great across the Lake with Mt Mansfield at your back. You start getting into the Ontario lake effect towards Old Forge and Watertown. You've really gotta love and be ready for neverending snow over there. I think it would get overwhelming for me over there, especially on Tug Hill, though the main areas of Tug Hill are only sparsley populated. You have to get around on snowmobile in the winter.

I see that Burlington is gonna break their February monthly snowfall record of 34.3" (1958) very soon.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
1351. MoCoMd
Quoting HeavySnow:
Snowing lightly in Annandale, VA. Winter is apparently not giving up easily.


Same here in Silver Spring, MD.
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Snowing lightly in Annandale, VA. Winter is apparently not giving up easily.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2990
Accuweather needs to dial their radar down a bit--I've noticed they tend to show a LOT of virga. For instance, it's showing a bunch of snow heading towards Philly right now, and the average layperson looking at that might get the heebee jeebees.

It's been bugging me, just needed to get that off my chest. :)
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 221
I agree, TheF1Man. It's alittle early to write-off winter on Feb. 9th., even if La Lina conditions are taking over abit.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
1347. hurigo
Hello Blizz, et al.
Here's your northern southerner checking in.
We're expecting snow. 2-4 inches from Southern Virginia Beach to OBX and inland.
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Quoting MarylandGirl:
Just saw that they put a 50% chance of snow back in our forcast.....strange. I am looking forward to the 50s for most of next week. Is winter done for SO MD?? I know, plenty of time left, but our average is now close to 40s.


I'm not expert, but there's no way that is over even in MD. I bet there's 1 more push, sort of like winter's last breath..
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Just saw that they put a 50% chance of snow back in our forcast.....strange. I am looking forward to the 50s for most of next week. Is winter done for SO MD?? I know, plenty of time left, but our average is now close to 40s.
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Those Vermont snowfall averages are truly inspiring, TT! My husband and I are looking at either Vermont or the Adirondacks, so to compare:

Days Place Inches
30.5 Glens Falls 66.5
54.0 Lake Placid 104.4
52.9 Massena 73.3
75.1 Old Forge 194.7
47.0 Watertown 94.9

I think Vermont wins out, for snowfall considerations anyway. Those high peaks in NY are gorgeous!
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1343. bwi
OK, now I see we have 50 percent chance of snow back in the forecast. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/lwx/winterstorm/
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1407
1342. bwi
Little Rock, Adams Field
Lat: 34.73 Lon: -92.23 Elev: 276
Last Update on Feb 9, 12:53 pm CST


Heavy Snow Freezing Fog

24 °F
(-4 °C) Humidity: 91 %
Wind Speed: NE 9 MPH
Barometer: 30.22" (1023.9 mb)
Dewpoint: 22 °F (-6 °C)
Wind Chill: 14 °F (-10 °C)
Visibility: 0.06 mi


Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1407
Quoting P451:
Anyone see what British Columbia is facing?



Those purples are over the high peaks of BC in the 5-day snow predictions for about 6 months of the year. Crazy...
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Quoting snowinvermont:

TT- I have just the place for you. Beautiful house,barns,meadows,sugarwoods just 5 minutes to Smugglers Notch/Mt.Mansfield on 40 acres on a quiet back road 3 miles from the village. We have bought a fixerupper near Quechee VT(near our grandkids) and will be moving there next year. For snowlovers, this is mecca as you can snowmobile,snowshoe,cross-country ski,etc right out our back door.

;-).....Drooling. Don't sell for another 3 years, then I'll be ready!

Some VT interesting facts to kill my boredom...

South Burlington...
Seasonal Snowfall To Date: 84.0"
Average Snowfall To Date: 50.7"
Average Snowfall Per Season: 83.1"

February 2011 Snowfall To Date: 28.8"
Current Snowdepth: 24" (2/9/11 7:00 am)
Mount Mansfield Current Snow Depth: 67" or 5 ft 7" (2/8 7:00 am)

On average, South Burlington would receive another 32.4" from now into April. If that were to happen, BTV would end up with a 116.4" season total which would place that site at the #6 spot on the BTV all-time records list. The highest recorded seasonal snowfall at BTV was 145.4" in 1970-1971. The tenth highest was 104.6" the year before in 1969-1970.

VT Station Average Annual Snowfall / Elevation. Take these exact averages with a grain of salt. Seeing that the most snow I've ever seen in 1 season is 77", I just can't go wrong anywhere in Vermont can I?

Mount Mansfield: 243.0" / 3950 ft
Jay Peak: 216.5" / 1875 ft
Brookfield: 127.5" / 1300 ft
South Lincoln: 125.2" / 1370 ft
Waitsfield: 114.2" / 1028 ft
Island Pond: 112.5" / 1200 ft
Waterbury: 110.8" / 760 ft
Canaan: 110.4" / 1020 ft
Newport: 102.9" / 770 ft
Morrisville: 100.5" / 760 ft
Montpelier: 98.2" / 1126 ft
Woodstock: 94.9" / 600 ft
West Burke: 93.0" / 900 ft
Enosburg Falls: 90.8" / 420 ft
Cavendish: 90.2" / 800 ft
Ludlow: 89.4" / 1265 ft
St Johnsbury: 87.8" / 699 ft
Rochester: 87.3" / 830 ft
St Albans: 85.7" / 460 ft
Chittenden: 83.5" / 1060 ft
Essex Jct: 82.2" / 340 ft
Bethel: 81.7" / 660 ft
Huntington Center: 81.1" / 730 ft
Burlington: 81.0" / 330 ft
Chelsea: 79.2" / 800 ft
Union Village Dam: 71.2" / 460 ft
Cornwall: 68.8" / 400 ft
Gilman: 66.7" / 840 ft
Rutland: 65.4" / 620 ft
South Newbury: 63.5" / 470 ft
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
1337. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
warm up comes as we progress into the late weekend into all of next week
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
1336. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
39 days and winters done
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting PhillySnow:
Quiet weather, quiet blog. :)


Now if this were the South East weather blog it would be hopping today!
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Quiet weather, quiet blog. :)
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Quoting TrentonThunder:


I'm working on moving there. Give me a few years...

Vermont's been getting smoked since February started. I went to check the BTV stats but the NWS site is having problems. I actually checked earlier this morning and Burlington (South Burlington) had 80" so far this season and their seasonal average is 78" - 81" depending who's side you're on. They have 20" since February 1st as of last night and forecast was for 3" - 6" today. Mt. Mansfield's snow stats obviously way higher. I've noticed temps for February so far have been pretty well above average so I'm sure it's been real nice. Cold stuff coming though.

This time last year my wife and I were planning our trip up there. We went up during spring break in March and got very lucky with some sunshine and a few highs in the low 60's in Stowe! We went to the top of Mansfield for lunch and didn't even need a jacket at the overlook. It was awesome...

TT- I have just the place for you. Beautiful house,barns,meadows,sugarwoods just 5 minutes to Smugglers Notch/Mt.Mansfield on 40 acres on a quiet back road 3 miles from the village. We have bought a fixerupper near Quechee VT(near our grandkids) and will be moving there next year. For snowlovers, this is mecca as you can snowmobile,snowshoe,cross-country ski,etc right out our back door.
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Quoting listenerVT:
Hi snowinvermont and Trenton Thunder...

I'm in Jericho, VT which has had 84" of snow so far this season. Normal is 50.7" and last year we had 68.2".

Like you, snowinvermont, we have nowhere left to plow or shovel the snow. It's insane!




Hey! That looks like my vehicle!!!!
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Quoting sunnysmum:
Did I miss the surprise?

Not that I know of. I haven't seen Blizz on the blog in a couple of days, though, and I'm starting to wonder if that's related to the surprise.
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Did I miss the surprise?
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1329. Matlack
Quoting Gaara:


I got a letter from FRA for my tax records. I use the standard deduction right now, but the personal touch was cute:



Gaara - they do great things with kids there and they have been able to keep it on a personal level as long as we have known about them which is going on 19 years. Thank you for donating.
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Hi snowinvermont and Trenton Thunder...

I'm in Jericho, VT which has had 84" of snow so far this season. Normal is 50.7" and last year we had 68.2".

Like you, snowinvermont, we have nowhere left to plow or shovel the snow. It's insane!


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Quoting bwi:
Wind advisory, and they weren't kidding. Hopefully it'll die down this afternoon.


I think it blew my recycling all over the parking lot but I have the flu and am not up to checking, sigh.
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1326. Gaara
Quoting Matlack:
Good Morning all just got a new PC and have been having difficulties getting all the set up done and files moved over. It does not like my Ambient Weather software so I had to upgrade, darn... But the worse thing is it does not have a 13 pin d-sub connector so my weather station cannot be hooked up until I can find an alternative. So that being said I'm heading out to take down the Christmas decorations as this is the first time since Christmas I can safetly get on the roof and actually find the extension cords in the yard! Have a great day and I'll check in later.


I got a letter from FRA for my tax records. I use the standard deduction right now, but the personal touch was cute:

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1324. Gaara
The forecasted temps for Amarillo amuse me.
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One more thing about the Kansas snow, they kept on saying earlier in the day at Accu. Weather that the snow area was going to dive SE all the way down to North Tx., even the Dallas area, well, it doesn't look like it will-- maybe that "tail" brush the Dallas area, that's about it.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
A pretty winter day in Pittsburgh. Got about 2.5 (eyeballing) inches big fat flakes between sunset last night and about noon today, then sunshine most of the afternoon. It was winter wonderland again.

Also saw flurries with sunshine at the same time, a kind of strange phenomenon. There were few clouds. It was translucent, sparkling as the snow fell. Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds??? Cold diamonds. We're looking at a low of 2 for the night.
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Thanks for that Kansas post, TT. Just looking at the radar now, it looks almost like it did 12-14 hours ago! Pretty wild stuff. It's moved alittle East, and has a "tail", poking SW down thru the TX panhandle, into eastern New Mex.Down to 18.5F here, Wind WNW 15-25mph. with higher gusts, Baro.is 30.01" steady.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
I overstated the 18" , but pretty close anyway.

Out of NWS Wichita KS...
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST
WEDNESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST
WEDNESDAY.

* TIMING...A SWATH OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL
OCCUR THIS EVENING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE FLINT
HILLS AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS ALTHOUGH INTENSITIES SHOULD DIMINISH.
MEANWHILE THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF AND END IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...OF 10 TO 14 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH 5 TO 10 INCHES FOR SOUTHERN KANSAS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SNOW COVERED SLICK ROADS. IN ADDITION...THE BREEZY
NORTH WINDS AND ARCTIC AIR WILL CREATE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL
VALUES AROUND 10 BELOW IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND 15 TO 20 BELOW
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.


Salina Municipal Airport 5:53 PM CST...
Snow Freezing Fog

Temperature: 3F
Wind Speed: N 15 MPH
Dewpoint: -1F
Wind Chill: -16F
Visibility: 0.25 mi.




Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Quoting originalLT:
Just a note, I've been following the national radar picture all day, from the early morning, and an area of snow has been over the entire state of Kansas and has hardly moved all day. That seems alittle strange, virtually no movement!


Kansas was in the 18"+ snow forecast earlier today.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Quoting snowinvermont:


Come to Vermont! Winter still going strong. 8" new at my house as of noon and still snowing hard. Went skiing at Smugglers Notch and there was still untouched 16-20" powder stashes in the woods and a fresh 8-10 on the slopes. Barn collapses are the main news item and BTV has well exceeded the normal yearly snowfall already. I have no room to plow the snow. A brief break would be welcome but we do have another 7 weeks of winter.


I'm working on moving there. Give me a few years...

Vermont's been getting smoked since February started. I went to check the BTV stats but the NWS site is having problems. I actually checked earlier this morning and Burlington (South Burlington) had 80" so far this season and their seasonal average is 78" - 81" depending who's side you're on. They have 20" since February 1st as of last night and forecast was for 3" - 6" today. Mt. Mansfield's snow stats obviously way higher. I've noticed temps for February so far have been pretty well above average so I'm sure it's been real nice. Cold stuff coming though.

This time last year my wife and I were planning our trip up there. We went up during spring break in March and got very lucky with some sunshine and a few highs in the low 60's in Stowe! We went to the top of Mansfield for lunch and didn't even need a jacket at the overlook. It was awesome...
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Lt i was looking at the wrong thursday! oops
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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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