North American Mesoscale Model Verification on January 26-27...

By: Zachary Labe , 10:34 PM GMT on January 29, 2011

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The North American Mesoscale Model (NAM) is a high resolution model courtesy of the National Center for Environmental Prediction. Another very common and referenced name for the model is the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). They are the same model and run out to 84 hours. The purpose of the model is to run a higher resolution determining mesoscale features that often cannot be picked up by the global models due to their larger scale. The NAM can be run on an 80km resolution with a broad view of the United States, or 40km which allows the viewer to zoom in on a localized region to put up on mesoscale features. Also a very high resolution form of the NAM exists using a 12km parametric and can zoom into different states. The model is released four times a day at 0z, 6z, 12z, and 18z. Keep in mind that time is zulu or more commonly known as greenwich mean time.

Computer models are critical to forecasting the weather as they use parametric and other mathematical equations to derive the current and predicted state of the atmosphere using a physical and chemical explanation as the background for the predictions. The NCEP is associated with the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to be the developer of these computer models. Each meteorological organization worlwide uses their own developed computer models to serve as a basis for the forecasts. Without computer models, we are not able to derive predictions on the weather greater than 24 hours out.

Like all computer models, the NAM shows all layers of the atmosphere in maps determining positioning and speed of the jet stream, surface precipitation amounts (quantitive precipitation forecast QPF), temperatures throughout the entire core of the atmosphere, convective indices, simulated radars, etc. Due to the higher resolution of the NAM, several problems do exist. It often produces convective elements in many middle latitude cyclones and these are known as convective feedback problems. This is where it developed these unstable regions and often associates them as surface lows causing the surface depiction to be distorted. This was a problem in the recent prediction of the January 26-27 winter storm and will be noted below. Also the NAM has a tendency to produce higher than normal precipitation amounts. I typically find myself cutting totals nearly by 30% as shown on the NAM. Finally the NAM has a bias to overamplify a low pressure and close them off to early particularily on eastern United States cyclogenesis off the coast.

The January 26-27 winter storm featured many model headaches do to some interesting variables. Early on it appeared likely for a low pressure to track up inland along the coastal plain. There was a lacking 50/50 low, unfavorable position of the western trough axis, neutral NAO, natural baroclinicity along the coastline, and stale antecedent cold air mass. This would produce rain along I-95 with heavy snows inland. The 500mb synoptic pattern showed very strong signals for this time of setup with most computer model guidance also in support. The GGEM and ECMWF led the pack with the heavy snows from I-81 on westward. The GFS suffered major problems with varying solutions for each run. But then the computer models began to delay the storm. In fact it was delayed nearly 48-60 hours from the original starting time. This caused a different scenario to unfold. The lacking high pressure to the north was still a problem as the anticyclone zoomed east-northeast, but now a high pressure and associated shortwave out ahead of it allowed sunk east-southeast across the Midwest and western Great Lakes. This acted as a 'kicker' helping to push the cyclonegenesis farther off the coast. This in turn allowed for a colder scenario along with precipitation to occur farther east. Therefore a turn of events allowed for a major I-95 snowstorm with 6in+ totals from Washington DC to Boston. This was very fortunate for snow lovers in that corridor due to pure luck given the poor synoptic setup.

Given the NAM's high resolution, it often overanalyzes prognostics post hour 60. It tends to enhance QPF, overamplify lows, and pick up on mesoscale features that really do not exist. Therefore I typically throw out hours 60-84. It would be a rare event where you would find the NAM 84 hour verifying anywhere close to accurate. But in the near term range, the NAM does an excellent job locating temperature thermals, QPF ranges, and picking up on mesoscale features; coastal fronts, enhanced convection, deformation bands, etc. But in this recent storm, it suffered a plethora of problems and even the 6 and 12 hour surface maps had poor verification especially in the QPF department.

Let us first look at the actual accumulated precipitation totals for the storm.

Given this is a 24 hour accumulated precipitation amount, about .01-.1in of additional precipitation fell south of the Mason-Dixon line in the previous 24 hours.

Here are the preceeding NAM total QPF forecasts...


(January 24; 18z) (January 25; 6z)


(January 25; 12z) (January 25; 18z)


(January 26; 0z) (January 26; 6z)

As you can see, the NAM had a lot of variance with the northwestern sharp precipitation gradients. These tight gradients this year have been caused by the rapid intensification of the coastal lows allowing the heaviest moisture to be confined closer to the center of circulation. Also in this instance, a very cold and dry air mass along with associated cold front was quickly advancing southeast across the Great Lakes and was even picked up on by the 700mb RH charts. This allowed the flow out of the northwest to dry up some moisture for areas more inland.

The NAM simulated radar vs. the forecast QPF did not match up. Often the NAM simulated radar showed the heavier mesoscale bands lining up in northern Maryland and southern Pennsylvania where as it only showed total QPF to be .25in-.5in. In fact looking at total verification, the NAM did very well for its simulated radar.


(Actual NEXRAD National Radar) (6z NAM January 26 Simulated Radar)

The NAM did seem to have a hold on the 500mb map showing the negatively tilted trough producing the coastal low along with the placement of the upper level low and associated shortwave kicker just to the west.


(18z NAM January 24; 500mb) (0z NAM January 26; 500mb)

In general the differences in the 500mb maps were very subtle with just a general strengthening in the closed 500mb low, which verified a tad north of the January 24 18z model run.

The NAM did a very excellent job in identifying mesoscale band using the UUV/700mb RH charts.

(6z NAM January 26; 700mb)

It indentifed the enhanced snow growth over southeastern Pennsylvania up through New Jersey and New York City. The problems with the NAM generally existed in the QPF fields. The model likely suffered a very convective feedback issues in QPF totals. This is why it is important to note other maps than surface maps to help locate the heaviest precipitation. The 700mb map screamed that snow totals would be farther inland with the enhanced deformation band and UUV rates. In general the high resolution models handled this the best with the HRR scoring an amazing victory for QPF along with the ECMWF. The GFS/NAM did a very poor job for QPF, but as noted above QPF does not always tell the story. Sometimes it is important to note other layers of the atmosphere to help make a forecast. This point is why many forecasters missed the boat. Many forecasters (especially broadcoast meteorologists) are drawn to the easy to understand QPF/surface maps, but one has to look at all layers of the atmosphere to make a prediction.

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2010-2011 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 0-3in
Monthly Total (November)- Trace
Monthly Total (December)- 0.6in
Monthly Total (January)- 18.90in
Monthly Total (February)- 1.35in
Seasonal Total- 20.85in
Winter Weather Advisories- 7
Winter Storm Warnings- 2
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 2

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 23.7F
Lowest Low Temperature- -1.7F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First accumulating snow - December 10 - 0.50in of snow
Clipper light snow - January 7-8 - 2.25in then another 1in of snow
Double Barrel Low - January 11 - 4.5in of snow
Coastal Low - January 17-17 - 1.8in of snow/sleet
Arctic Front - January 20-21 - 2.1in of snow
Upper level/coastal low - January 26 - 5.75in of snow
Two clippers - January 28-29 - 1.5in of snow

Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011 (Blizzard92)
Melting begins...
Ice Storm 2011
Ice Storm 2011 (Blizzard92)
Melting begins...
Ice Storm 2011

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Quoting TheF1Man:
wow hoy I wish we got into the 50s today or even 60s come friday. It's a stretch just to get even close to 50s, almost didn't get to 40 today.

Hopefully blizz makes an appearance soon, I want to know what's happening next week for the possible storm.


That's unfortunate you remain so cold, F1, we only went down to 45 last night. Already at 50 with mostly overcast skies. I'll go with 62 for a high today and 68 tomorrow, even though they predict 56 and 61, respectively.

The snow is basically gone, and what remains is soggy ground and extremely dirty piles of what is hard to believe is snow. If you want to see dirty snow, visit NYC. This place is full of filth.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
Hey whats up Blizz. I agree with you in the thinking that a track across northern PA or southern NY is what should happen but I thought a northern track was more likely with the storm just before the last cold snap, but it got supressed way south and out to sea. Obviously these 2 events are different in composition but what is the same is there is no model support for a northern track at the moment. The 06z GFS paints a 12-18 inch bullseye with 2" per hr rates from eastern IN through central OH through Pittsburgh through Philadelphia and central NJ. The 00z ECMFW is further south. A lot of uncertainty though because we are in the 4 to 6 day range and the initial system has to go through the ever elusive southwest US region first meaning we might not have any grip on this until Saturday. This winter has been anything but usual.

I know some may be winter weary this season, but remember it's only February 17th. As far as I'm concerned, we're in the heart of snow season. Don't let the premature spring tease fool ya.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
All is right with the world as winter has relaxed its grip, under duress no doubt, to provide us in the Ohio Valley with a truly fine morning. At 9am, temp is 50+ with filtered sunshine through a creamy cloud deck. Some people are walking about dressed for full winter, others in shirt sleeves. The birds are active and loud and the temp is expected to climb above 60. We may reach 70. The furnace is off. The windows have been thrown open and my cats are jockeying for positions on the ledges. I am off from work to take care of some personal personal business and glad I chose this day. It is glorious.

Snow for the week is forecasted to remain to our north, however the threat remains for flurries. With the ground so warm, whatever comes down has little chance of sticking. There still remains some patches of snow on the grassy slopes but they should be gone by tomorrow afternoon.

Glad you delurked Blizz. Really good to hear from you.
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Good to hear from you Blizz, I, We, don't want another "Sullivan Weather" where the host just "disappears"! If you ever have to leave or cut back due to college or something, let us know! Thanks again for checking in. LT
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7441
1513. cchamp6
Hey Blizz. Down to 26 this morning. Bantam Ct. Your probably right on with your thoughts for monday storm. It happens year after year. Once a specific area gets snow it keeps coming. You guys last year. Us this year. I think it probably happens more here but patterns hang around. Just hope the pattern changes soon. I will post a picture of the snow pack after the 2 day warm up. A before and after shot.
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Thanks for the quick hello, Blizz. Just starting to worry! I'm glad all is well.
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Good morning! Sorry for my absense. Just been lurking around here for the past week along with catching up on a few things. Given the current wavelengths for next week, my first inclinition is for the west to east moving shortwave to move across northern Pennsylvania along the thermal gradient with snows to the north favoring upstate New York and central to northern New England perhaps southern New England also. If the confluence strengthens, this may shift south, but the thermal boundary looks to setup in central Pennsylvania which is not good for northern Middle Atlantic snows.
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This is getting more exciting for next week! First, TT says there's a chance for snow on Tuesday, then NWS changes our forecast to snow, and then this from DiMartino:

"All eyes will be on Tuesday as there is growing support for the threat for accumulating snowfall on Tuesday morning throughout the New York City and Philadelphia metropolitan areas. At this time, details are still uncertain about the exact track of the low pressure system and precipitation type, however the threat is clearly growing for another round of snow for early next week."

Yay!

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TT it doesn't make much sense to be either. Did January wear us out?
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
Man, some near record warmth Friday and a winter storm threat in the 5-day range and its dead as a dornail in here. Come on people. ZZZzzz
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Blizz will be back. He's around. This would be the time he'd be putting out his spring outlook though. He did say he was going to put out a new blog, but then not a peep. Blizz, if you're monitoring, just pop in and say hi.
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At this early juncture, mount holly is going with the path of least regret by going with late february climatology by giving all snow in its mountain zones and snow to rain on the piedmont and coastal plain. 40% pop based around Tuesday.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
Phillysnow...Blizz hasn't posted in over a week. Why bother coming around if the host isn't coming around. It isn't usually like this. Even in the summer time it is more lively.

Thanks, TRP and P451 - It is definitely different with Blizz not giving his excellent insight. And I agree with you, P, Blizz is likely going to be very busy with schooling, and they'll probably want him to do a blog for Cornell's weather next year! *sigh* If Blizz can't do the blog next year, perhaps one of our many weather-savvy folk will take it over? Or take turns doing posts to give Blizz somewhat of a break? The blog might actually be comfortingly familiar to a new college student away in a totally new society. In any case, however it pans out, it'd be a shame to let the community disappear.
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wow hoy I wish we got into the 50s today or even 60s come friday. It's a stretch just to get even close to 50s, almost didn't get to 40 today.

Hopefully blizz makes an appearance soon, I want to know what's happening next week for the possible storm.
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
Predicted high was 48 today, but it's now at 54.3

Forecast calls for low 50's tomorrow, which likely means 60+ and Friday, well, I was hoping to get near 70, but clouds will likely keep it below that.

Regardless, loving this weather.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
P451: You may be right about the early next week track being near PA/NY border like the GFS and a west to east zonal is almost a definate. The ECMFW however takes that low off the VA coast. Both models have a pretty good amount of moisture north of the low track and both have cold high pressure over southern Canada just out ahead of and paralleling the low movement from west to east. Its the north-south interaction between the high and low that they disagree on and its the battle between the two that needs to be watched. The CMC doesnt look right to me and has a very weak low that just pitters out in an unorganized fashion even farther south than the ECMFW. You would think that a track closer to the GFS would be more likely seeing that we're in LaNina, but remember some of us were thinking the same thing about a recent storm / thought it would be an inland runner, but.stayed south and got supresses out to sea. HPC is using a blend of GFS / ECMFW with a slight lean towards ECMFW at the moment.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Phillysnow...Blizz hasn't posted in over a week. Why bother coming around if the host isn't coming around. It isn't usually like this. Even in the summer time it is more lively.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6252
I think we're all interested on Blizz's take for the upcoming Spring. That will get it going again.
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Good morning, everyone! Or should I say anyone...? Not a single comment from 2:14pm yesterday through all evening. Is this what it's like when it's not snow season? Have I somehow entered a blog Twilight Zone? I've checked to see if there's a new post we've moved to, but I don't see one. Very odd.
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Quoting PhillySnow:

Yay! I'm liking the little bit of spring, and one more snowstorm would be perfect. Early enough, also, to not destroy anyone's garden. (I think - my husband's the gardener in our family.)


Yeah, I'm starting to get that spring fever, but I'd be up for snow in July if you ask me.

This interesting low pressure system is still a week away and there is some huge model spread between the GFS, ECMFW and CMC. One thing they have in common is that they project a zonal flow from the plains to the east coast, meaning west to east storm movement with little to no amplification. The GFS & ECMFW suggest a decent amount of moisture with the system with a west to east swath of moderate to heavy. The GFS has trended north from the 6Z to 12Z run and is the northern-most of the 3 models, bringing the low offshore at New Hampshire and favoring northernmost New England with heavy snow. The ECMFW brings the low off the NC/VA coast and looks like it favors the mid-atlantic with moderate to heavy snow. The CMC is the least impressive of the 3 and brings the low off shore at southern NC. All 3 solutions push the low off shore with no coastal redevelopment. What a spread!
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Quoting TrentonThunder:
Looks like we have something to watch per the gfs late this weekend / early next week. A low develops in KS on Sunday, moves northeast to Chicago Monday morning, moves ESE to southern MI Monday afternoon, scoots across northern PA Monday night, is south of RI Tuesday morning, then east out to sea thereafter. Per gfs, swath of heavy snow / all snow over northern NY - to Albany - Mass excluding Cape, - central n southern VT NH - extreme southern ME. Snow to rain to snow from mason-dixon to Delaware / NJ and north to the all snow line.

Yay! I'm liking the little bit of spring, and one more snowstorm would be perfect. Early enough, also, to not destroy anyone's garden. (I think - my husband's the gardener in our family.)
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Quoting P451:
Wind was very strong last night. Bottomed out at 17F. Currently standing at 32F after a surprise early high of 34F about 6F higher than predicted. 10F for tonight and then back to another warm-up although the temperatures have come down about 5F across the board each day and down 10F to 45F on Saturday instead of 55F.

Was able to clean up a lot of the frozen mess late yesterday after the day full of sun and warmth. Hit 62F in the city.

Meanwhile, yesterday's plotted highs. Would have loved a full week of that.



I wouldn't be surprised if it gets warmer than that later in the week. Yesterday, as you said, was 62 here, yet they were predicting mid 50's. Today, on the other hand, is downright bitter compared to 24 hours ago, especially with that biting wind. I opened the door to the balcony this morning and it literally pulled me outside.

Here's to 65 on Friday!
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
Looks like we have something to watch per the gfs late this weekend / early next week. A low develops in KS on Sunday, moves northeast to Chicago Monday morning, moves ESE to southern MI Monday afternoon, scoots across northern PA Monday night, is south of RI Tuesday morning, then east out to sea thereafter. Per gfs, swath of heavy snow / all snow over northern NY - to Albany - Mass excluding Cape, - central n southern VT NH - extreme southern ME. Snow to rain to snow from mason-dixon to Delaware / NJ and north to the all snow line.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
If I may be so bold as to inject a little controversy, I'm seeing some commentary over the current CME that indicates it may have a heating effect in excess of what we're expecting this weekend...

Didn't Blizz say he was interested in any supposed link between solar activity and climate change?

Link:

NOAA Space weather

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Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
I guess Blizz's surprise is that he won't be coming around his blog anymore...hahahahaha

he did say it wasn't any big deal.


Exactly my thoughts. Wonder if he knows his blog is being highacked.
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1489. Gaara
Beautiful day today, even with the breeze. I am laughing at all the people who bought snow brooms a week after the last storm, only to never use them.

Too bad I had to spend it inside with bronchitis. At least I have a bottle of sweet, delicious sizzurp to keep me company.
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I guess Blizz's surprise is that he won't be coming around his blog anymore...hahahahaha

he did say it wasn't any big deal.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6252
1487. bwi
Didn't expect this much wind tonight. Still howling out there.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
Except for a few small snow banks, all the snow melted away revealing deeply cracked sod in in my yard like there had been an earthquake or an alien worm thing has been tunneling. I've never seen the likes of it before. It's long established grass. It's like tributaries. What the??
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I had a low of 45F and high of 59F. 1" snowcover left as of sunset. Felt real nice out there today. Some area highs/lows...

: MAX MIN SNOW SNOW
:ID LOCATION TEMP TEMP PCPN FALL DEPTH
:
:...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...
12N : ANDOVER : 56 / 30 / 0.00/ M/ M
TTN : MERCER COUNTY AP : 59 / 42 / 0.00/ M/ M
FWN : SUSSEX AIRPORT : 57 / 35 / T / M/ M
TEB : TETERBORO AIRPORT : 57 / 38 / 0.00/ M/ M
CDW : CALDWELL : 57 / 39 / 0.00/ M/ M
EWR : NEWARK INTERNATIONAL : 60 / 41 / 0.00/ M/ M
SMQ : SOMERVILLE AIRPORT : 57 / 26 / 0.00/ M/ M
BLM : BELMAR AIRPORT : 59 / 43 / 0.00/ M/ M
:
:...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
ACY : ATLANTIC CITY AIRPORT : 65 / 44 / 0.02/ M/ M
VAY : MOUNT HOLLY AIRPORT : 61 / 44 / 0.00/ M/ M
WRI : MCGUIRE AFB : 60 / 42 / 0.00/ M/ M
NEL : LAKEHURST NAS : 62 / 42 / 0.00/ M/ M
MIV : MILLVILLE AP : 65 / 41 / 0.00/ M/ M
WWD : WILDWOOD AIRPORT : 63 / 43 / 0.00/ M/ M
ATLN4: ATLANTIC CITY MARINA : 62 / 42 / 0.00/ M/ M
:
:...EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
PHL : PHILADELPHIA AP : 62 / 42 / 0.00/ M/ M
ABE : LEHIGH VALLEY INTL : 52 / 26 / 0.00/ M/ M
RDG : READING AP : 55 / 36 / T / M/ M
MPO : MOUNT POCONO AP : 49 / 36 / T / M/ M
AVP : WILKES-BARRE AP : 50 / 39 / T / M/ M
PTW : POTTSTOWN AP : 59 / 45 / 0.00/ M/ M
NXX : WILLOW GROVE NAS : 56 / 43 / 0.00/ M/ M
DYL : DOYLESTOWN AP : 55 / 42 / 0.00/ M/ M
PNE : NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA : M / M / 0.00/ M/ M
SEG : SELINSGROVE AP : 53 / 32 / 0.00/ M/ M
THV : YORK : 58 / 43 / 0.00/ M/ M
LNS : LANCASTER AP : 54 / 39 / 0.00/ M/ M
LOM : BLUE BELL : 58 / 44 / 0.00/ M/ M
UKT : QUAKERTOWN : 55 / 39 / 0.00/ M/ M
:
:...DELAWARE AND EASTERN MARYLAND...
ILG : WILMINGTON AIRPORT : 62 / 42 / 0.00/ M/ M
GED : GEORGETOWN AP : 67 / 43 / 0.00/ M/ M
ESN : EASTON AIRPORT : 66 / 46 / 0.00/ M/ M
NAK : ANNAPOLIS : 66 / 48 / 0.00/ M/ M
DOV : DOVER AFB : 67 / 42 / 0.00/ M/ M
OXB : OCEAN CITY AP : 69 / 47 / 0.00/ M/ M
SBY : SALISBURY : 67 / 39 / 0.00/ M/ M
BWI : BALTIMORE AIRPORT : 67 / 48 / 0.00/ M/ M
:
.END
:
.BR PHI 0214 E DH00/TAIRZX/DH07/TAIRZP
:
:...OTHER COASTAL OBSERVATIONS...
SDHN4: SANDY HOOK : 53 / 41
PTPN4: POINT PLEASANT : 60 / 40
BGLN4: BARNEGAT LIGHT : 60 / 40
NWWN4: NORTH WILDWOOD : 61 / 41
CAPN4: CAPE MAY HARBOR : 61 / 42
CMAN4: CAPE MAY FERRY : 50 / 42
LWSD1: BREAKWATER HARBOR : 65 / 46
CAMM2: CAMBRIDGE : 65 / 46
TCBM2: TOLCHESTER BEACH : 55 / 44
DELD1: DELAWARE CITY : 63 / 46
PHBP1: PHILADELPHIA PIER 12 : 62 / 43
NBLP1: NEWBOLD ISLAND : 58 / 43
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Quoting SilverShipsofAndilar:


Three storms in 123 years? That hardly worries me. Are we looking at a hot/cold/hot/cold 70s/30s/70s/30s pattern March through April? When can I plant my garden, play golf, and go mountain biking?


There's been a lot more than that. Thay're just a couple "Storm of the Centuries"
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Quoting anduril:
WGAL is probably the better of the big three I'd say. The CBS affiliate can be decent for weather but for news they seem to be more into shock and terrible stuff than anything else. Fox, well, I just avoid fox


Thanx
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
1482. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
we had a high of 48 at 10 am this morning cold front came by at around noon with winds to 80 kmh from the north that was it for the brief warm up temps have dropped to 25 now with a low of 10 to 15 tonight then cold tommorrow with warmup returning wed temps on thurs should be back to 50 with possible 60's on friday then back to cold on the weekend

gotta love these rollercoaster temps spring is coming
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1481. crowe1
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
451 PM EST Monday Feb 14 2011


Synopsis...
a strong cold front will sweep through the region this evening
ushering in very cold air and strong gusty winds. Temperatures are
expected to drop as much as 50 degrees from mondays highs by
Tuesday morning. High pressure will begin to build in on Tuesday
and will dominate our weather through middle week. Temperatures are
expected to be chilly through Tuesday night and then warm to well
above normal before the end of the work week.



Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 15 Comments: 921
Hi everyone!

Just back from Chicago - missed you there, shipweather. :) Got home in time for this beautiful, warm day! Good to be home!

Too many posts to read through all of them - Has Blizz shown up? Any word about the surprise?
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today's high reached 56F...now down to 46F with very windy conditions and mostly cloudy
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6252
It hit 50 here, but there is still a 30" snowpack in my back yard. I am not minding the small warm up, hopefully it gives me some room to put the snow from the next storms!!!
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62.1 degrees with sunshine and wind in Brooklyn.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
1473. bwi
68 degrees at DCA
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
Maybe we'll be calling this our "February Thaw", we never really had one in Jan. this year.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7441
TRP i haven't had the log-in problem, whenever I load the blog I'm already signed in.

bwi maybe down in your area the ground is unfrozen, but up here in springfield it's going to take a lot more than 7 days of 40s to melt the snow.
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
1470. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting SilverShipsofAndilar:
Winter is over? Can we call it officially?

not quite yet a surprize is possible after big thaw

wait watch see
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1469. bwi
Hmmm.. HPC showing cooler temps from NE on south on Day 7, with lower pressures in the Ohio valley. Looks like at least a temporary break in the warm. Any precip would fall on very warm unfrozen ground by that point...
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
Ha,Ha, not a "three footer" but a "one footer" is alot more possible!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7441
Quoting originalLT:
Hi Silver Ships, well thats all I could remember in a short period of time while responding to you. I do agree, the back of winter has been broken, but just sayin, don't let your guard down.


If letting my guard down means a higher risk for a three-foot snowfall, then consider my guard down. Way down.
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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

Local Weather

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78 °F
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Personal Weather Stations

Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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