North American Mesoscale Model Verification on January 26-27...

By: Zachary Labe , 10:34 PM GMT on January 29, 2011

Share this Blog
5
+

The North American Mesoscale Model (NAM) is a high resolution model courtesy of the National Center for Environmental Prediction. Another very common and referenced name for the model is the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). They are the same model and run out to 84 hours. The purpose of the model is to run a higher resolution determining mesoscale features that often cannot be picked up by the global models due to their larger scale. The NAM can be run on an 80km resolution with a broad view of the United States, or 40km which allows the viewer to zoom in on a localized region to put up on mesoscale features. Also a very high resolution form of the NAM exists using a 12km parametric and can zoom into different states. The model is released four times a day at 0z, 6z, 12z, and 18z. Keep in mind that time is zulu or more commonly known as greenwich mean time.

Computer models are critical to forecasting the weather as they use parametric and other mathematical equations to derive the current and predicted state of the atmosphere using a physical and chemical explanation as the background for the predictions. The NCEP is associated with the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to be the developer of these computer models. Each meteorological organization worlwide uses their own developed computer models to serve as a basis for the forecasts. Without computer models, we are not able to derive predictions on the weather greater than 24 hours out.

Like all computer models, the NAM shows all layers of the atmosphere in maps determining positioning and speed of the jet stream, surface precipitation amounts (quantitive precipitation forecast QPF), temperatures throughout the entire core of the atmosphere, convective indices, simulated radars, etc. Due to the higher resolution of the NAM, several problems do exist. It often produces convective elements in many middle latitude cyclones and these are known as convective feedback problems. This is where it developed these unstable regions and often associates them as surface lows causing the surface depiction to be distorted. This was a problem in the recent prediction of the January 26-27 winter storm and will be noted below. Also the NAM has a tendency to produce higher than normal precipitation amounts. I typically find myself cutting totals nearly by 30% as shown on the NAM. Finally the NAM has a bias to overamplify a low pressure and close them off to early particularily on eastern United States cyclogenesis off the coast.

The January 26-27 winter storm featured many model headaches do to some interesting variables. Early on it appeared likely for a low pressure to track up inland along the coastal plain. There was a lacking 50/50 low, unfavorable position of the western trough axis, neutral NAO, natural baroclinicity along the coastline, and stale antecedent cold air mass. This would produce rain along I-95 with heavy snows inland. The 500mb synoptic pattern showed very strong signals for this time of setup with most computer model guidance also in support. The GGEM and ECMWF led the pack with the heavy snows from I-81 on westward. The GFS suffered major problems with varying solutions for each run. But then the computer models began to delay the storm. In fact it was delayed nearly 48-60 hours from the original starting time. This caused a different scenario to unfold. The lacking high pressure to the north was still a problem as the anticyclone zoomed east-northeast, but now a high pressure and associated shortwave out ahead of it allowed sunk east-southeast across the Midwest and western Great Lakes. This acted as a 'kicker' helping to push the cyclonegenesis farther off the coast. This in turn allowed for a colder scenario along with precipitation to occur farther east. Therefore a turn of events allowed for a major I-95 snowstorm with 6in+ totals from Washington DC to Boston. This was very fortunate for snow lovers in that corridor due to pure luck given the poor synoptic setup.

Given the NAM's high resolution, it often overanalyzes prognostics post hour 60. It tends to enhance QPF, overamplify lows, and pick up on mesoscale features that really do not exist. Therefore I typically throw out hours 60-84. It would be a rare event where you would find the NAM 84 hour verifying anywhere close to accurate. But in the near term range, the NAM does an excellent job locating temperature thermals, QPF ranges, and picking up on mesoscale features; coastal fronts, enhanced convection, deformation bands, etc. But in this recent storm, it suffered a plethora of problems and even the 6 and 12 hour surface maps had poor verification especially in the QPF department.

Let us first look at the actual accumulated precipitation totals for the storm.

Given this is a 24 hour accumulated precipitation amount, about .01-.1in of additional precipitation fell south of the Mason-Dixon line in the previous 24 hours.

Here are the preceeding NAM total QPF forecasts...


(January 24; 18z) (January 25; 6z)


(January 25; 12z) (January 25; 18z)


(January 26; 0z) (January 26; 6z)

As you can see, the NAM had a lot of variance with the northwestern sharp precipitation gradients. These tight gradients this year have been caused by the rapid intensification of the coastal lows allowing the heaviest moisture to be confined closer to the center of circulation. Also in this instance, a very cold and dry air mass along with associated cold front was quickly advancing southeast across the Great Lakes and was even picked up on by the 700mb RH charts. This allowed the flow out of the northwest to dry up some moisture for areas more inland.

The NAM simulated radar vs. the forecast QPF did not match up. Often the NAM simulated radar showed the heavier mesoscale bands lining up in northern Maryland and southern Pennsylvania where as it only showed total QPF to be .25in-.5in. In fact looking at total verification, the NAM did very well for its simulated radar.


(Actual NEXRAD National Radar) (6z NAM January 26 Simulated Radar)

The NAM did seem to have a hold on the 500mb map showing the negatively tilted trough producing the coastal low along with the placement of the upper level low and associated shortwave kicker just to the west.


(18z NAM January 24; 500mb) (0z NAM January 26; 500mb)

In general the differences in the 500mb maps were very subtle with just a general strengthening in the closed 500mb low, which verified a tad north of the January 24 18z model run.

The NAM did a very excellent job in identifying mesoscale band using the UUV/700mb RH charts.

(6z NAM January 26; 700mb)

It indentifed the enhanced snow growth over southeastern Pennsylvania up through New Jersey and New York City. The problems with the NAM generally existed in the QPF fields. The model likely suffered a very convective feedback issues in QPF totals. This is why it is important to note other maps than surface maps to help locate the heaviest precipitation. The 700mb map screamed that snow totals would be farther inland with the enhanced deformation band and UUV rates. In general the high resolution models handled this the best with the HRR scoring an amazing victory for QPF along with the ECMWF. The GFS/NAM did a very poor job for QPF, but as noted above QPF does not always tell the story. Sometimes it is important to note other layers of the atmosphere to help make a forecast. This point is why many forecasters missed the boat. Many forecasters (especially broadcoast meteorologists) are drawn to the easy to understand QPF/surface maps, but one has to look at all layers of the atmosphere to make a prediction.

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2010-2011 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 0-3in
Monthly Total (November)- Trace
Monthly Total (December)- 0.6in
Monthly Total (January)- 18.90in
Monthly Total (February)- 1.35in
Seasonal Total- 20.85in
Winter Weather Advisories- 7
Winter Storm Warnings- 2
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 2

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 23.7F
Lowest Low Temperature- -1.7F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First accumulating snow - December 10 - 0.50in of snow
Clipper light snow - January 7-8 - 2.25in then another 1in of snow
Double Barrel Low - January 11 - 4.5in of snow
Coastal Low - January 17-17 - 1.8in of snow/sleet
Arctic Front - January 20-21 - 2.1in of snow
Upper level/coastal low - January 26 - 5.75in of snow
Two clippers - January 28-29 - 1.5in of snow

Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011 (Blizzard92)
Melting begins...
Ice Storm 2011
Ice Storm 2011 (Blizzard92)
Melting begins...
Ice Storm 2011

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1567 - 1517

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36Blog Index

1567. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
tornadic cell
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
1566. crowe1
Top gust so far: 52mph at 2:54pm. It's only blowing about 20-25mph right now, possibly 65mph overnight.

Current:
Sacandaga Lake, Broadalbin, New York (PWS)

Mostly Cloudy
43.5 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Windchill: 36 °F
Humidity: 52%
Dew Point: 27 °F
Wind: 18.0 mph from the West
Wind Gust: 20.0 mph
Pressure: 29.61 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1565. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
1564. cchamp6


...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN

LITCHFIELD COUNTY IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...

AT 643 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO HALF INCH HAIL...WINDS UP TO
50 MPH...AND HEAVY RAIN. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NEW
PRESTON...OR ABOUT 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF NEW MILFORD...AND MOVING
EAST AT 65 MPH. ANOTHER STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NEW HARTFORD...AND
MOVING EAST ALSO AT 65 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
THOMASTON AND 7 MILES SOUTH OF TORRINGTON BY 655 PM EST
TERRYVILLE AND 9 MILES SOUTH OF NEW HARTFORD BY 700 PM EST

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1562. cchamp6
Big flash lightning and a rumble of thunder. Litchfield Ct.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Typical Brooklyn beach scene, haha:

Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1521
68 degrees currently, not sure what I went up to, but felt even warmer than yesterday.

That incoming wind storm looks pretty intense. Gusts could surpass 60 mph.

This warmth will soon be a distant memory.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1521
Sunny and 68F. Gorgeous weather, especially for mid February. Even with the wacky winter warmth the past few years, this is above what I'm used to. But I have zero complaints. Very springlike. Shame we're expecting rain and subfreezing temps next week. I don't really think we'll see any other precip form other than a bit of freezing rain; Mt Holly has really overdone the wintry mixes this month.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1558. zotty
Quoting P451:
Hit 59F in Croton, NY yesterday. Calling for 63F today. With the continued snow pack - now 4-14" in depth - just cannot get much warmer. I would be in some cleared parking lots and driveways it was in the mid 60s though. Short sleeves were no problem yesterday afternoon at all. Not even a little bit chilly.

Hit 35F last night and clearly had some showers pass through in the early morning.

Pic of the back yard where I'm currently at.



Shot of the Zappan Zee Bridge during a commute into the city the other day.







Nice Picture, P. Is that from the Hudson Line?

I guess old man winter is about to wake up from his nap. 22 tomorrow night, brrr
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HeavySnow:
Toss out the NAM!


Yeah, out with the NAM! 73.2F in Germantown, MD right now. I want to go out and play, but am dutifully working.
Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 138
Toss out the NAM!
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2990
1555. bwi
Wow, 75 degrees in DC now. It's warmer outside than in my office! High wind watch tomorrow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1554. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
72 here and waiting on an increasingly likely snow scenario for DC monday night and Tuesday!
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2990
Clouds are keeping the temps down today, as TT eluded to yesterday. I was just looking at official numbers and it says we actually hit 71.2 yesterday. Higher than what I had.

Currently 57 degrees, temp hasn't moved much in the last couple of hours.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1521
Quoting P451:
Doesn't seem like anything all that exciting and there is still uncertainty there in that forecast.

What I don't like is again the chance for a mixed bag followed by a drop in temperature. I'm tired of that scenario leaving a few inches of frozen mess that lasts days on end.

Speaking of drops in temperature we actually dropped down to 51F with the advancement of thicker clouds here.


Agreed. Can't last for too long this time, though, with temps rising again by the end of the week.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From Steven DiMartino:
A couple of low pressure systems will move through the northern Mid Atlantic on Monday and Tuesday. The first low pressure system will move from the Ohio Valley into the southern Hudson Valley on Monday morning. Most locations will be on the warm side of this low pressure system, however portions of the northern interior like northeastern Pennsylvania, northwestern New Jersey, the Hudson Valley, and interior Connecticut; will be on the cold side of this storm track initially with a period of light to moderate snow on Monday morning. Accumulations will be limited as warm air will overwhelm the region changing any snow in these locations over to rain, however a 1 to 3 inch or 2 to 4 inch accumulation of snow is possible before any change over to rain. The cold front with this low pressure will move through on Monday afternoon. Ahead of the cold front temperatures will warm into the 40′s for most locations, possibly touching 50 degrees.

Behind the cold front, another Polar/Arctic air mass will move into the region. A second wave of low pressure will develop over the Ohio Valley, however this low pressure system is expected to track towards the Delaware coast on Tuesday morning. With a cold air mass in place, a period of light to moderate snow and sleet is expected on Tuesday morning with minor to moderate snowfall accumulations possible. There is still some uncertainty about this low pressure system, however most guidance agrees with the timing of this low pressure system impacting the region in the morning hours of Tuesday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
46.7F here and, interestingly, surrounding towns are all in the low 50's. Not sure why the difference.

Looks like our best chance for a light snow is Tuesday morning. Otherwise just a cold rain. Oh well; I'll enjoy spring today! I like the variety, and I'd love more snow. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like winter is not done in northern VT. Squalls late night tonight and tomorrow could bring a few inches and the storm Sunday night into Monday could prompt winter storm warnings. Skis at the ready for some more powder. I did try snowboarding Wednesday, still sore from all my falling!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well, it's already 52.9 degrees at 8 AM. After a high of 68.5 yesterday, I feel this will be the day we break 70. Unfortunately the cold front comes through tonight and it's back to coats and hats and turning the heat on. This week has been a welcome sign of what will hopefully be an early Spring.

Monday looks like it will be mostly rain around here before changing to snow Monday night, though I doubt there'd be much if any accumulation now that the surface has warmed. We'll see though. There's little doubt we'll have more snow this winter.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1521
Quoting TrentonThunder:


Pittnurse: You've been ready for spring since January lol



Oh I'm sure I'm not alone. Once Christmas is over and the decorations are put away, winter can become a bit of a drudge for me. This year especially with trying to renovate and protect an empty home wintering over. Worrying about freezing pipes, etc. and making sure the contractors don't slip and fall on icy surfaces.
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
1542. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
1541. crowe1
Boating anyone?

Storm Warning

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1005 PM EST THU FEB 17 2011
A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY.

* WIND AND WAVES DURING THE STORM WARNING: EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS OF UP TO 42 KNOTS FROM THE WEST...WITH GUSTS UP TO 54
KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 27 FEET
WITH A MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF UP TO 40 FEET POSSIBLE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1540. crowe1
High of 44.4F today. My sap is running!!!
Current:
Sacandaga Lake, Broadalbin, New York (PWS)

Clear
33.8 °F
Clear
Windchill: 34 °F
Humidity: 90%
Dew Point: 31 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Pressure: 29.96 in (Falling)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1539. anduril
It was beautiful today in Camp Hill. Honestly, I hate days like this because I'm always stuck at work and can't really get out and enjoy it. Oh well, back to crappy weather I'm sure for a bit
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
66F for the high here today.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
today's high 62.9F Campbelltown, Pa
a bit rural so not much concrete and pavement to warm as Harrisburg

55F right now....warm for this time of day and this time of the year
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Managed a couple records today in Nor'easter Alley...

(T) = Tied
* = Broken

Huntington WV: 70 (T)
Harrisburg PA: 67*
Trenton NJ: 67 (T)
Beckley WV: 66*
Bluefield WV: 66*
Newark NJ: 66 (T)
Reading PA: 64 (T)
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
I just read this:

For my S. PA brethern, Weatherworld is favoring an accumlating snow fall for PA - south of I-80 as per their Sure Bets segment in tonight's broadcast. In last night's Extended Forecast, Paul Knight was favoring a Canadian-like solution with the LP riding the frontal boundry to our South - wintry mix, possible all snow, possibly all ice, possibly mixed.

WW is 92% accurate with their Sure Bets calls this winter season and overall a very solid forecasting crew for our region.

Edit: forgot to give ya al link or web addy: www.weatherworld.psu.edu

This post has been edited by Undertakers
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Increasing cloud deck cut me off at 66.2F just before peak heating today. Felt so nice...

I'm officialy calling it a 0" snowcover after noon today for the first time since January 7th. Since I believe 7am this morning should be considered T" depth, that means 42 straight days with snowcover. That's an enormous consecutive stretch for these parts. There's still some snow around out there, but 0" for flat, open & untouched areas. Snow evidence (drifts/shade/snow mounds) have been consistent since December 26th.


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly New Jersey
342 PM EST Thursday Feb 17 2011


Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
there is better model consensus today for the first half of the long
term than there was yesterday as most medium range models have a
double shot of precipitation affecting our County Warning Area from Sunday night
into Tuesday. It looks like wintry precipitation will return but at
this forecast juncture the ability to have the ptype exactly correct
should be viewed as less than average.


Most of the models are ejecting the closed low from the southwestern Continental U.S.
Faster than yesterday. If anything most of the medium range models
trended toward yesterday's 12z GFS solution. Thus we have slid the
precipitation event forward in time about 12 to 24 hours. Still feel
uncomfortable about the GFS northernmost track because it is predicated
on a piece of energy coming from the baffin island polar vortex.
Both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) models initialized it well, so its more of a
function of its interaction/track down the Road.


At any rate, probability of precipitation were started on Sunday night. The idea of consensus
warm air advection would change snow over to rain or non snow (could be freezing
rain) for most of our County Warning Area as Sunday night continues. Monday would
spend time either in the warm sector or being warm enough for
mainly rain. As the first low exits, a second wave of low pressure
is forecast to form on its frontal boundary and give our area a
second shot or precipitation. Because its expected to get colder
behind the departing first low and the general farther south
forecast track of the second low, we bring wintry precipitation
deeper into our County Warning Area. We end precipitation as snow throughout our County Warning Area
on Tuesday morning. While the models are much closer than they were
yesterday, the details on how this will transpire will hopefully
become clearer over the next couple of days. The GFS and European model (ecmwf)
ensemble means are a bit more progressive and muted with the
second wave, but as ensembles go, this would be expected given
some members have flatter solutions than the op model.


After the lows depart, fair but colder weather will return Tuesday
night and Wednesday. A cold front is forecast to approach our County Warning Area on
Thursday. Showers are possible as the front approaches. There will
be some temperature recovery, so the mention of snow for now was
confined northwest of the i95 corridor.


Temperatures in the long term are expected to average around or
colder than normal. The one exception might be Monday if parts of
our County Warning Area get into the warm sector. There is considerable uncertainty
though about the maximum temperatures. This can be seen as there was a 6
Standard deviation spread on phl's maximum temperature off the 00z ensemble
run. Or to put it another way, there was a 25 degree spread among
the ensemble MOS members for monday's maximum temperature at phl.

Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain and snow after midnight. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

Washingtons Birthday
Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain. Highs in the upper 40s.

Monday Night
Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. A chance of rain in the evening. Lows in the lower 20s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

Tuesday
Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow in the morning... then partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of snow 40 percent.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
1533. zotty
Quoting originalLT:
We've had a nice SW to WSW componant to the wind here today by me, thus keeping it from coming off the water which I guess is just about at it's coldest for the year.Also the sun has been out quite a bit this afternoon after a cloudy morning, so that has helped the Temp. rise too. Now is 61F.


LT- The sound is a killer!

I went outside at lunchtime today and have to admit I felt alive for the first time since that big snow after Christmas. Monday back in the freezer- oh well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WOW! 71 here and sunny. Snow possibly by monday night. Wiggity whack weather.
Good job on the temp predictions hoy now get busy on that snow forecast.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2990
We've had a nice SW to WSW componant to the wind here today by me, thus keeping it from coming off the water which I guess is just about at it's coldest for the year.Also the sun has been out quite a bit this afternoon after a cloudy morning, so that has helped the Temp. rise too. Now is 61F.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
Hoy we're about 10 degrees higher than they forecast! incredible! I hope tomorrow is the same, it feels so good not to wear a jacket. Also it was good to hear from you blizz!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just cracked 50 in northern VT for the first time in months. Still have a 20"+ snowpack at my house. Feels like spring!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow, at 1:00 pm, a few areas in the Laurel Highlands of PA were still in the mid-30's while an isolated area in western Lancaster county and northwest Philadelphia were in the low 70's. All via satelite temperatures via the "PA State Climatologist". Love that Temp map.

As of 2:00 pm, a few areas in southenr NJ begining to enter low-70's. I'd say today was a completely busted forecast temperature wise.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
It might be tough to reach records today over here. Records are mostly in the low 70's today and upper 60's tomorrow.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Just hit 67! Temps rising fast...
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1521
Quoting Hoynieva:
Thanks, LT, but it's none too surprising. I'm just unsure as to why the forecasted temperatures have been far too low all week. Seems like after getting the first couple days wrong, they'd realize their fault. It's now 65.1 here and I'm out in a T-shirt. Amazing stuff. Might flirt with 70 :)


Not sure the reason, maybe too much weight given to the snowcover? I don't know...
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Quoting TrentonThunder:


Sure is. I'm at 64F at 1:30. Today may end up being warmer that tomorrow. Friday afternoon cumulus and a slight chance of an afternoon shower way limit the maximums. We'll see though.


I agree, more sunshine today than tomorrow, I was just thinking the same thing.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1521
Thanks, LT, but it's none too surprising. I'm just unsure as to why the forecasted temperatures have been far too low all week. Seems like after getting the first couple days wrong, they'd realize their fault. It's now 65.1 here and I'm out in a T-shirt. Amazing stuff. Might flirt with 70 :)
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1521
Quoting originalLT:
Yeah, TT it is warm, 58F in Stamford Ct. Hoynieva said it will get warmer than predicted, good call Hoy!


Sure is. I'm at 64F at 1:30. Today may end up being warmer than tomorrow. Friday afternoon cumulus and a slight chance of an afternoon shower way limit the maximums. We'll see though.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Yeah, TT it is warm, 58F in Stamford Ct. Hoynieva said it will get warmer than predicted, good call Hoy!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
Wow, temps in the low 60's at noon. Much warmer than expected. Might take a shot at a few records today.

Pittnurse: You've been ready for spring since January lol. Don't put your money on a big snowfall, that's only per the 06Z GFS.

I can see what may be starting to happen with the early week system. There may be an intitial low that tracks east-northeast through New England spreading precip as all snow for the northern half up there, and snow/rain for southern New England. Then, a second low forms behind low #1 along the leading edge of the progressive cold air trough, bringing low #2 on a east or east-southeast track through the southern mid-atlantic with a band of heavy snow just north of the center.

I'm trying not to model hug here, but just giving an idea as to the evolution of guidance on this system for those who are not following or whatever. Just something to talk about really.

Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
TT, that is unfortunate. The mean looks like it would bring the energy right through here, my hopes for the end of the snowpack dashed. It is still 4 days out as you say. Maybe it will be a nonevent for us and follow the northeast track. I am winter weary. We had no major events but daily nuisance snow gave us a steady solid snowpack that lasted too long for my taste.
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
We're also dealing with northern energy interaction to further complicate things.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Quoting TheF1Man:
wow hoy I wish we got into the 50s today or even 60s come friday. It's a stretch just to get even close to 50s, almost didn't get to 40 today.

Hopefully blizz makes an appearance soon, I want to know what's happening next week for the possible storm.


That's unfortunate you remain so cold, F1, we only went down to 45 last night. Already at 50 with mostly overcast skies. I'll go with 62 for a high today and 68 tomorrow, even though they predict 56 and 61, respectively.

The snow is basically gone, and what remains is soggy ground and extremely dirty piles of what is hard to believe is snow. If you want to see dirty snow, visit NYC. This place is full of filth.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1521

Viewing: 1567 - 1517

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36Blog Index

Top of Page

About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

Blizzard92's Recent Photos

Fall in Ithaca
Snow Fluff
Deep Creek and Wisp, MD
Deep Creek and Wisp, MD

Personal Weather Stations

About Personal Weather Stations