North American Mesoscale Model Verification on January 26-27...

By: Zachary Labe , 10:34 PM GMT on January 29, 2011

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The North American Mesoscale Model (NAM) is a high resolution model courtesy of the National Center for Environmental Prediction. Another very common and referenced name for the model is the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). They are the same model and run out to 84 hours. The purpose of the model is to run a higher resolution determining mesoscale features that often cannot be picked up by the global models due to their larger scale. The NAM can be run on an 80km resolution with a broad view of the United States, or 40km which allows the viewer to zoom in on a localized region to put up on mesoscale features. Also a very high resolution form of the NAM exists using a 12km parametric and can zoom into different states. The model is released four times a day at 0z, 6z, 12z, and 18z. Keep in mind that time is zulu or more commonly known as greenwich mean time.

Computer models are critical to forecasting the weather as they use parametric and other mathematical equations to derive the current and predicted state of the atmosphere using a physical and chemical explanation as the background for the predictions. The NCEP is associated with the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to be the developer of these computer models. Each meteorological organization worlwide uses their own developed computer models to serve as a basis for the forecasts. Without computer models, we are not able to derive predictions on the weather greater than 24 hours out.

Like all computer models, the NAM shows all layers of the atmosphere in maps determining positioning and speed of the jet stream, surface precipitation amounts (quantitive precipitation forecast QPF), temperatures throughout the entire core of the atmosphere, convective indices, simulated radars, etc. Due to the higher resolution of the NAM, several problems do exist. It often produces convective elements in many middle latitude cyclones and these are known as convective feedback problems. This is where it developed these unstable regions and often associates them as surface lows causing the surface depiction to be distorted. This was a problem in the recent prediction of the January 26-27 winter storm and will be noted below. Also the NAM has a tendency to produce higher than normal precipitation amounts. I typically find myself cutting totals nearly by 30% as shown on the NAM. Finally the NAM has a bias to overamplify a low pressure and close them off to early particularily on eastern United States cyclogenesis off the coast.

The January 26-27 winter storm featured many model headaches do to some interesting variables. Early on it appeared likely for a low pressure to track up inland along the coastal plain. There was a lacking 50/50 low, unfavorable position of the western trough axis, neutral NAO, natural baroclinicity along the coastline, and stale antecedent cold air mass. This would produce rain along I-95 with heavy snows inland. The 500mb synoptic pattern showed very strong signals for this time of setup with most computer model guidance also in support. The GGEM and ECMWF led the pack with the heavy snows from I-81 on westward. The GFS suffered major problems with varying solutions for each run. But then the computer models began to delay the storm. In fact it was delayed nearly 48-60 hours from the original starting time. This caused a different scenario to unfold. The lacking high pressure to the north was still a problem as the anticyclone zoomed east-northeast, but now a high pressure and associated shortwave out ahead of it allowed sunk east-southeast across the Midwest and western Great Lakes. This acted as a 'kicker' helping to push the cyclonegenesis farther off the coast. This in turn allowed for a colder scenario along with precipitation to occur farther east. Therefore a turn of events allowed for a major I-95 snowstorm with 6in+ totals from Washington DC to Boston. This was very fortunate for snow lovers in that corridor due to pure luck given the poor synoptic setup.

Given the NAM's high resolution, it often overanalyzes prognostics post hour 60. It tends to enhance QPF, overamplify lows, and pick up on mesoscale features that really do not exist. Therefore I typically throw out hours 60-84. It would be a rare event where you would find the NAM 84 hour verifying anywhere close to accurate. But in the near term range, the NAM does an excellent job locating temperature thermals, QPF ranges, and picking up on mesoscale features; coastal fronts, enhanced convection, deformation bands, etc. But in this recent storm, it suffered a plethora of problems and even the 6 and 12 hour surface maps had poor verification especially in the QPF department.

Let us first look at the actual accumulated precipitation totals for the storm.

Given this is a 24 hour accumulated precipitation amount, about .01-.1in of additional precipitation fell south of the Mason-Dixon line in the previous 24 hours.

Here are the preceeding NAM total QPF forecasts...


(January 24; 18z) (January 25; 6z)


(January 25; 12z) (January 25; 18z)


(January 26; 0z) (January 26; 6z)

As you can see, the NAM had a lot of variance with the northwestern sharp precipitation gradients. These tight gradients this year have been caused by the rapid intensification of the coastal lows allowing the heaviest moisture to be confined closer to the center of circulation. Also in this instance, a very cold and dry air mass along with associated cold front was quickly advancing southeast across the Great Lakes and was even picked up on by the 700mb RH charts. This allowed the flow out of the northwest to dry up some moisture for areas more inland.

The NAM simulated radar vs. the forecast QPF did not match up. Often the NAM simulated radar showed the heavier mesoscale bands lining up in northern Maryland and southern Pennsylvania where as it only showed total QPF to be .25in-.5in. In fact looking at total verification, the NAM did very well for its simulated radar.


(Actual NEXRAD National Radar) (6z NAM January 26 Simulated Radar)

The NAM did seem to have a hold on the 500mb map showing the negatively tilted trough producing the coastal low along with the placement of the upper level low and associated shortwave kicker just to the west.


(18z NAM January 24; 500mb) (0z NAM January 26; 500mb)

In general the differences in the 500mb maps were very subtle with just a general strengthening in the closed 500mb low, which verified a tad north of the January 24 18z model run.

The NAM did a very excellent job in identifying mesoscale band using the UUV/700mb RH charts.

(6z NAM January 26; 700mb)

It indentifed the enhanced snow growth over southeastern Pennsylvania up through New Jersey and New York City. The problems with the NAM generally existed in the QPF fields. The model likely suffered a very convective feedback issues in QPF totals. This is why it is important to note other maps than surface maps to help locate the heaviest precipitation. The 700mb map screamed that snow totals would be farther inland with the enhanced deformation band and UUV rates. In general the high resolution models handled this the best with the HRR scoring an amazing victory for QPF along with the ECMWF. The GFS/NAM did a very poor job for QPF, but as noted above QPF does not always tell the story. Sometimes it is important to note other layers of the atmosphere to help make a forecast. This point is why many forecasters missed the boat. Many forecasters (especially broadcoast meteorologists) are drawn to the easy to understand QPF/surface maps, but one has to look at all layers of the atmosphere to make a prediction.

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2010-2011 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 0-3in
Monthly Total (November)- Trace
Monthly Total (December)- 0.6in
Monthly Total (January)- 18.90in
Monthly Total (February)- 1.35in
Seasonal Total- 20.85in
Winter Weather Advisories- 7
Winter Storm Warnings- 2
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 2

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 23.7F
Lowest Low Temperature- -1.7F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First accumulating snow - December 10 - 0.50in of snow
Clipper light snow - January 7-8 - 2.25in then another 1in of snow
Double Barrel Low - January 11 - 4.5in of snow
Coastal Low - January 17-17 - 1.8in of snow/sleet
Arctic Front - January 20-21 - 2.1in of snow
Upper level/coastal low - January 26 - 5.75in of snow
Two clippers - January 28-29 - 1.5in of snow

Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011 (Blizzard92)
Melting begins...
Ice Storm 2011
Ice Storm 2011 (Blizzard92)
Melting begins...
Ice Storm 2011

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After that 60 degree weather I just want to play some golf. We had hail here last night as one of the thunderstorms passed through.
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1616. cchamp6
I was just checking out the WV loop. The pattern appears to have gone back to a more blocky pattern. It looks like the same thing as earlier in the year. Systems over the Atlantic appear to be moving more westerly than to the east. Somebody with a little more knowledge care to comment?
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1615. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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1614. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
WOCN11 CWTO 191409
Special weather statement
Updated by Environment Canada Saturday
19 February 2011.

Special weather statement issued for..
City of Toronto
Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
Sarnia - Lambton
Elgin
London - Middlesex
Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
Oxford - Brant
Niagara
City of Hamilton
Halton - Peel
York - Durham
Huron - Perth
Waterloo - Wellington
Dufferin - Innisfil
Grey - Bruce
Barrie - Orillia - Midland
Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland
Kingston - Prince Edward
Brockville - Leeds and Grenville
City of Ottawa
Gatineau
Prescott and Russell
Cornwall - Morrisburg
Smiths Falls - Lanark - Sharbot Lake
Parry Sound - Muskoka
Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet.

..A bands of snow and heavy blowing snow reducing visibility to near
Zero will move over the area this morning..

..Off lake snow and heavy blowing snow..

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
At 8:50 AM radar shows a band of snow just north of Ottawa.
This combined with wind gusts to 70 km/h will result in near zero
visibilities lasting from 10 to 30 minutes.

Cold air flooding into Southern Ontario today will result in moderate
to strong northwesterly winds of 30 to 40 km/h with gusts to 60 to 80
giving local blowing snow over the eastern parts this morning.
In addition, multiple bands of lake effect snow developing over
Georgian Bay and Northern Lake Huron are expected to persist all the
way into this afternoon. The eastern extend of the Georgian Bay
bands are expected to penetrate all the way through lake Simcoe to
Western Lake Ontario and the Lake Huron bands are expected to go
through Southern Grey county all the way to Eastern Lake Erie.
Areas in between could have local accumulations up to 10 cm to the
Lee of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay..With lesser amounts further
inland. However any snow that does fall will likely be whipped up at
times by the strong winds resulting in sudden very low visibility in
Blowing snow. At present..Snow squall watches and warnings are not
Anticipated.. As the meandering nature of the lake effect bands will
limit amounts and low visibilities at any given location.
Motorists should expect poor winter driving conditions due to low
visibility in heavy snow and blowing snow. Travel plans should be
adjusted accordingly. Winds and lake effect flurries will diminish
by this evening as a large Arctic ridge of high pressure finally
builds over Southern Ontario.
Another low pressure system is expected to develop over Nebraska
Sunday morning and track through the lower Great Lakes on Monday.
Indications at this time suggests the leading edge of the snow will
arrive at the extreme southwest Sunday evening and by the time it
Ends on Monday.. Area south of a line from Georgian Bay to Kingston
could get 10 to 20 cm of snow. In addition there is also a risk of
freezing rain over the northern shores of Western Lake Erie Sunday
evening and Sunday night. There are still a lot of uncertainties
with this developing system. Environment Canada will continue to
monitor this system closely and issue the appropriate watches and
warning when necessary.

END/OSPC
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Peak wind gusts, locally:

New York

... Nassau County...
1 E Point Lookout 54 540 am 2/19 Jones Beach Coast Guard
Kings Point 52 1136 PM 2/18 mesonet
Bayville 52 1201 am 2/19 mesonet

... Orange County...
Montgomery 49 243 am 2/19 ASOS

... Queens County...
NYC/JFK Airport 56 1208 am 2/19 ASOS
NYC/La Guardia 51 509 am 2/19 ASOS
Breezy Point 49 450 am 2/19 mesonet

That last area is aptly named.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
1612. bwi
HPC day 3 4 inch snow probability. I'm pleasantly surprised it's as high as it is for DC/Baltimore area.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1387
1611. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Quoting h2oskt:


We had lightning in Plainville. Last night was interesting, full moon, partially shrouded in clouds with heat lightning and snowy fields. Really odd as I have never seen anything like that before.


That's an interesting sight indeed. We had lightning here as well last night as storms rushed by less than a mile to my South.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
temp has dropped since yesterday's high of 71F and has been holding steady since 7am at 41F

so far the highest wind gust this morning has been 35mph and last nights high gust was 44mph @928pm. sustained winds right now are 17mph

Campbelltown, PA

It would be nice to get Blizz's interpretation for the next few days for the LSV.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
1608. cchamp6
Everyone seems to think 3-5 up here in my area just south of Worcester, MA. Sound good to you guys?


I think thats a good guess for now. I think the NAM is way overdone with this storm. Not sure if we get the 2nd storm.
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1607. cchamp6
Heavy, its actually pissing me off a bit! Lol. Love snow but this is getting ridiculous. With 2" of snow over a glacier and wind to 50 mph its gonna look like a blizzard came through with big drifts.
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1606. GTOSnow
Everyone seems to think 3-5 up here in my area just south of Worcester, MA. Sound good to you guys?
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1605. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting SilverShipsofAndilar:
Windy. So windy.
last night we had winds gusting at times over 100 kmh at one point the gusts were 19kmh short of cat 1 hurricane force this morning much better sustain winds are 45 to 50 kmh with occausional gusts 75 to 80 kmh till late this afternoon hold on to yer hats
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nm
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Quoting P451:
I think the NAM is way too far south, TT. I think the GFS has it pegged being a Poughkeepsie north storm.


That 00Z Radar site NAM snowfall output map is a little too zoomed in. If zoomed out, it shows 12"-18" over the southwest half of PA from Low #2 but NAM doesn't go far enough out to show the heavy snow extention any farther east. There's not gonna be that much snow anyway so it really doesn't matter.

It looks like there will be two lows, the first that tracks across northern Pennsylvania and through Poughkeepsie, the second low tracks through the central or southern mid-atlantic. The GFS, NAM, ECMFW, CMC all show this scenario. There is some tight consensus regarding low #1, but still uncertainty in strength and exact location of low #2.

With low #1, the 06Z GFS targets the southern tier of NY, the northern tier of PA and northwestern NJ with 6"-12". With low #2, it targets the Del-Mar-Va with a bullseye of 6"-8". It puts southeastern PA and parts of southern NJ in a snow hole between the two systems.

With low #1, the 06Z NAM targets the southern tier of NY, the northern tier of PA and extreme northwestern NJ with 10"-18". With low #2, it targets southwestern PA with 6"-12" and Maryland and Delaware with 6"-10". It puts east central PA and central NJ in a snow hole between the two systems.

That 00Z NAM radar site snowfall overlay is showing the accumulations from low #1 over northern PA etc... with accumulations from low #2 over southern PA. The 00Z NAM brought the two low pressures close to one another and therefore it looks like snowfall from 1 low instead of 2 seperate ones.

The 00Z GFS never developed low #2, which could happen, but brought it back on the 06Z focusing on the Del-Mar-Va region.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Quoting cchamp6:
Squall number 2. Feels like the middle of January right now. Fresh snow cover.


Lucky!
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1599. cchamp6
Squall number 2. Feels like the middle of January right now. Fresh snow cover.
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1598. h2oskt
Quoting originalLT:
Wow, some interesting wind reports and lightning reports here on the blog. No lightning here in Stamford CT. but wind gusts up to 43mph so far. Was "cool" friday, outside cleaning my cars in shirt sleeves, while still having snow all around me on the ground! Reached 64F.


We had lightning in Plainville. Last night was interesting, full moon, partially shrouded in clouds with heat lightning and snowy fields. Really odd as I have never seen anything like that before.
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1597. cchamp6
1" of snow from the first squall.
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Wow, some interesting wind reports and lightning reports here on the blog. No lightning here in Stamford CT. but wind gusts up to 43mph so far. Was "cool" friday, outside cleaning my cars in shirt sleeves, while still having snow all around me on the ground! Reached 64F.
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Windy. So windy.
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1594. cchamp6


...SNOW SQUALLS IN DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES...

AT 738 AM EST...SNOW SQUALLS WERE DETECTED BY RADAR. THESE SNOW
SQUALLS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF KENT TO LITCHFIELD...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PAWLING TO
TORRINGTON...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE NEAR...
THOMASTON AND TERRYVILLE BY 750 AM EST
WOODBURY CENTER...WOODBURY AND OAKVILLE BY 755 AM EST

SNOW SQUALLS PRODUCING A 15 TO 30 MINUTE PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW AND
NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS
OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE...BUT THE SEVERITY OF THE SNOW SQUALLS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND CAUSE EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS.
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1593. cchamp6
Ok welcome back to winter. We have a mini blizzard going here now. Bantam section of Litchfield Ct. Temp dropped to 31 since last post.
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1592. cchamp6
Woke to snow. Looks like we are going back to the cold and snow. Highs the last two days were around 58 degrees here. Snow pack melted down around 6-8" leaving about 14-18" left on the ground. Its like a glacier out there. With more snow in the forecast and no really warm days for a while it appears snow pack will only get bigger. Currently 33 degrees with snow squalls. Expecting some hefty winds today.
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Looks like we may get some accumulations in the city after all, P. I also saw they updated the forecast to light snow accumulation Sunday night before changing over to rain on Monday then back to light snow Monday night before tapering off. I agree, though, GFS looks like the more likely scenario.

Winds are strong out there this morning, 27 mph at the moment with gusts over 40.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
I'm at 54F, gusts to 39mph.

00Z GFS just killed low #2 while 00z NAM just exploded it for 12" - 18" in the southern half of PA just like the GFS & ECMFW wanted two days ago. Obviously not buying the NAM at the moment. Would have to wait and see on future runs and other model support before buying anything close to that.

Plus, the NAM lays that 12"-18" down in a 12-hour period Monday night and Tuesday morning. Suspicious about some sort of feedback problems. We'll see if it continues for the 06Z and 12Z runs.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
1585. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
we have recorded a top wind gust of 96.8 kmh

warnings have been issued
Warnings
City of Toronto
Friday 18 February 2011
Wind warning

..West winds gusting to 100 km/h this evening and overnight..

A second cold front associated with a strong low pressure system over Northern Ontario is advancing across Southern Ontario this evening. West winds just ahead and behind the front will increase to 60 km/h with gusts to 100 this evening before diminishing somewhat early Saturday morning.

Regions south and east of Northern Lake Huron and Georgian Bay is experiencing light snow and northwesterly winds 40 km/h with gusts up to 70. Even though the snowfall is not heavy, many areas are and will experience visibilities reduced to less than 0.5 km in blowing snow and icy stretches of highways into Saturday morning. As colder air floods over the lakes and the wind shifts to more northwesterly Saturday morning, lake effect snow bands will form. Snow squall watches and warnings are not anticipated at this time as the meandering nature of the lake effect bands will limit amounts at any given location..However this will result in sudden very low visibility at times in snow and blowing snow continuing over many localities all the way into Saturday afternoon. Motorists should expect poor winter driving conditions due to low visibility in snow and blowing snow especially in areas near Northern Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. Travel plans should be adjusted accordingly.
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Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
it is amazing that we have a wind advisory for tomorrow. tonight is extremely windy. i can't imagine what tomorrow will be like if tonight isn't part of the wind advisory.

I have a high gust of 38mph and the sustained winds are 18mph


You guys have a high wind warning out there too. MD + N VA also.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Today's east coast record highs
(Official primary NWS stations only)

* = Broken
(T) = Tied

Charlotte NC: 78 (T)
Greensboro NC: 78*
Greenville SC: 78*
Raleigh NC: 78*
Arlington [DC] VA: 77*
Danville VA: 77 (T)
Richmond VA: 77 (T)
Dulles VA: 75*
Lynchburg VA: 75 (T)
Wallops Island VA: 73*
Atlantic City NJ: 72*
Roanoke VA: 72 (T)
Trenton NJ: 72 (T)
Newark NJ: 71*
Reading PA: 71*
Harrisburg PA: 69 (T)
Philadelphia PA: 69 (T)
Allentown PA: 67*
N. Queens [LAG] NY: 67*
Pittsburgh PA: 66*
S. Queens [JFK] NY: 66*
Williamsport PA: 66*
Blacksburg VA: 65 (T)
Islip NY: 60*
Binghamton NY: 58*
------------------------------------------------- ----

Looks like the second low for Monday won't be as heavy as the GFS and ECMFW were projecting a few days ago. They were hinting that low #2 would get cranking from IN and east, doesn't look like it gets cranking until well off the coast. As far as model guidance, it looks like there will be a light to possibly localized moderate snowfall of 1"-5" somewhere in the mid-atlantic.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
They already put the MT.Holly CWA under a high wind warning:

... High Wind Warning in effect from 5 am to 9 PM EST Saturday...

The National Weather Service has issued a High Wind Warning. It is
in effect from 500 am until 900 PM Saturday. The high wind watch
is no longer in effect.

* Locations... the High Wind Warning is in effect for northeastern
Maryland, Delaware, much of eastern Pennsylvania and much of New
Jersey.

* Hazards... gusty to locally damaging winds are expected on
Saturday. Numerous tree limbs and utility lines will be knocked
down. A few weak trees may also fall.

* Winds... northwest sustained at 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60
mph.

* Timing... the highest wind speeds and gusts are expected to occur
between 10 am and 5 PM on Saturday. However, a brief period of
gusts to 40 or 45 mph is anticipated this evening.


* Impacts... widespread power outages are possible. Downed trees
and tree limbs could damage structures and vehicles. The winds
will make it difficult to drive high profile vehicles,
especially on bridges and overpasses.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A High Wind Warning means that a hazardous high wind event is
expected. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts of 58
mph or more can lead to property damage.
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it is amazing that we have a wind advisory for tomorrow. tonight is extremely windy. i can't imagine what tomorrow will be like if tonight isn't part of the wind advisory.

I have a high gust of 38mph and the sustained winds are 18mph
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
I thought this wind was not supposed to pick up until the morning?
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Boy this wind looks really bad for tomorrow. Already extremely gusty here.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Unbelievable - Just saw a ball of plasma lightening shoot up into a web of beautiful lightening on a purple sky over Worcester!!! Boyfriend saw it too - I had to pinch him so he knew we weren't dreaming. I've always read about these, but have never seen one before. What a way to remember February 18th in New England..:):)

Looking forward to more snow Monday!
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a high of 70.8F Campbelltown, PA

right now it is 62F with windy conditions and a full moon
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
1576. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
be back in a bit got to go fire up the 2nd and 3rd phase on the building boilers been only running phase 1 two boilers the last three days time to fire up all six
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1575. RkTec
Rain with Thunder and Lightning occurred in Allentown/Easton, PA around an hour ago. Just a brief squall.
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1574. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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1573. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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1572. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
that cell weaken good
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1571. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
<
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1570. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting crowe1:
Top gust so far: 52mph at 2:54pm. It's only blowing about 20-25mph right now, possibly 65mph overnight.

Current:
Sacandaga Lake, Broadalbin, New York (PWS)

Mostly Cloudy
43.5 F
Mostly Cloudy
Windchill: 36 F
Humidity: 52%
Dew Point: 27 F
Wind: 18.0 mph from the West
Wind Gust: 20.0 mph
Pressure: 29.61 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles

we are averaging between 55 and 60 kmh wind speeds with highest recorded gust so far 82.6 kmh temps fall slow

we get two snow events the first sun mon maybe into tuseday near half a foot or more then thurs second with another 6 inchest follow by another warm up till major event to ring in march
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1569. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting TheF1Man:
Keeper it looks like another one is about to enter the exact same location.
got a nice micro straight line with it
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Keeper it looks like another one is about to enter the exact same location.
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1567. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
tornadic cell
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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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