North American Mesoscale Model Verification on January 26-27...

By: Zachary Labe , 10:34 PM GMT on January 29, 2011

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The North American Mesoscale Model (NAM) is a high resolution model courtesy of the National Center for Environmental Prediction. Another very common and referenced name for the model is the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). They are the same model and run out to 84 hours. The purpose of the model is to run a higher resolution determining mesoscale features that often cannot be picked up by the global models due to their larger scale. The NAM can be run on an 80km resolution with a broad view of the United States, or 40km which allows the viewer to zoom in on a localized region to put up on mesoscale features. Also a very high resolution form of the NAM exists using a 12km parametric and can zoom into different states. The model is released four times a day at 0z, 6z, 12z, and 18z. Keep in mind that time is zulu or more commonly known as greenwich mean time.

Computer models are critical to forecasting the weather as they use parametric and other mathematical equations to derive the current and predicted state of the atmosphere using a physical and chemical explanation as the background for the predictions. The NCEP is associated with the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to be the developer of these computer models. Each meteorological organization worlwide uses their own developed computer models to serve as a basis for the forecasts. Without computer models, we are not able to derive predictions on the weather greater than 24 hours out.

Like all computer models, the NAM shows all layers of the atmosphere in maps determining positioning and speed of the jet stream, surface precipitation amounts (quantitive precipitation forecast QPF), temperatures throughout the entire core of the atmosphere, convective indices, simulated radars, etc. Due to the higher resolution of the NAM, several problems do exist. It often produces convective elements in many middle latitude cyclones and these are known as convective feedback problems. This is where it developed these unstable regions and often associates them as surface lows causing the surface depiction to be distorted. This was a problem in the recent prediction of the January 26-27 winter storm and will be noted below. Also the NAM has a tendency to produce higher than normal precipitation amounts. I typically find myself cutting totals nearly by 30% as shown on the NAM. Finally the NAM has a bias to overamplify a low pressure and close them off to early particularily on eastern United States cyclogenesis off the coast.

The January 26-27 winter storm featured many model headaches do to some interesting variables. Early on it appeared likely for a low pressure to track up inland along the coastal plain. There was a lacking 50/50 low, unfavorable position of the western trough axis, neutral NAO, natural baroclinicity along the coastline, and stale antecedent cold air mass. This would produce rain along I-95 with heavy snows inland. The 500mb synoptic pattern showed very strong signals for this time of setup with most computer model guidance also in support. The GGEM and ECMWF led the pack with the heavy snows from I-81 on westward. The GFS suffered major problems with varying solutions for each run. But then the computer models began to delay the storm. In fact it was delayed nearly 48-60 hours from the original starting time. This caused a different scenario to unfold. The lacking high pressure to the north was still a problem as the anticyclone zoomed east-northeast, but now a high pressure and associated shortwave out ahead of it allowed sunk east-southeast across the Midwest and western Great Lakes. This acted as a 'kicker' helping to push the cyclonegenesis farther off the coast. This in turn allowed for a colder scenario along with precipitation to occur farther east. Therefore a turn of events allowed for a major I-95 snowstorm with 6in+ totals from Washington DC to Boston. This was very fortunate for snow lovers in that corridor due to pure luck given the poor synoptic setup.

Given the NAM's high resolution, it often overanalyzes prognostics post hour 60. It tends to enhance QPF, overamplify lows, and pick up on mesoscale features that really do not exist. Therefore I typically throw out hours 60-84. It would be a rare event where you would find the NAM 84 hour verifying anywhere close to accurate. But in the near term range, the NAM does an excellent job locating temperature thermals, QPF ranges, and picking up on mesoscale features; coastal fronts, enhanced convection, deformation bands, etc. But in this recent storm, it suffered a plethora of problems and even the 6 and 12 hour surface maps had poor verification especially in the QPF department.

Let us first look at the actual accumulated precipitation totals for the storm.

Given this is a 24 hour accumulated precipitation amount, about .01-.1in of additional precipitation fell south of the Mason-Dixon line in the previous 24 hours.

Here are the preceeding NAM total QPF forecasts...


(January 24; 18z) (January 25; 6z)


(January 25; 12z) (January 25; 18z)


(January 26; 0z) (January 26; 6z)

As you can see, the NAM had a lot of variance with the northwestern sharp precipitation gradients. These tight gradients this year have been caused by the rapid intensification of the coastal lows allowing the heaviest moisture to be confined closer to the center of circulation. Also in this instance, a very cold and dry air mass along with associated cold front was quickly advancing southeast across the Great Lakes and was even picked up on by the 700mb RH charts. This allowed the flow out of the northwest to dry up some moisture for areas more inland.

The NAM simulated radar vs. the forecast QPF did not match up. Often the NAM simulated radar showed the heavier mesoscale bands lining up in northern Maryland and southern Pennsylvania where as it only showed total QPF to be .25in-.5in. In fact looking at total verification, the NAM did very well for its simulated radar.


(Actual NEXRAD National Radar) (6z NAM January 26 Simulated Radar)

The NAM did seem to have a hold on the 500mb map showing the negatively tilted trough producing the coastal low along with the placement of the upper level low and associated shortwave kicker just to the west.


(18z NAM January 24; 500mb) (0z NAM January 26; 500mb)

In general the differences in the 500mb maps were very subtle with just a general strengthening in the closed 500mb low, which verified a tad north of the January 24 18z model run.

The NAM did a very excellent job in identifying mesoscale band using the UUV/700mb RH charts.

(6z NAM January 26; 700mb)

It indentifed the enhanced snow growth over southeastern Pennsylvania up through New Jersey and New York City. The problems with the NAM generally existed in the QPF fields. The model likely suffered a very convective feedback issues in QPF totals. This is why it is important to note other maps than surface maps to help locate the heaviest precipitation. The 700mb map screamed that snow totals would be farther inland with the enhanced deformation band and UUV rates. In general the high resolution models handled this the best with the HRR scoring an amazing victory for QPF along with the ECMWF. The GFS/NAM did a very poor job for QPF, but as noted above QPF does not always tell the story. Sometimes it is important to note other layers of the atmosphere to help make a forecast. This point is why many forecasters missed the boat. Many forecasters (especially broadcoast meteorologists) are drawn to the easy to understand QPF/surface maps, but one has to look at all layers of the atmosphere to make a prediction.

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2010-2011 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 0-3in
Monthly Total (November)- Trace
Monthly Total (December)- 0.6in
Monthly Total (January)- 18.90in
Monthly Total (February)- 1.35in
Seasonal Total- 20.85in
Winter Weather Advisories- 7
Winter Storm Warnings- 2
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 2

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 23.7F
Lowest Low Temperature- -1.7F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First accumulating snow - December 10 - 0.50in of snow
Clipper light snow - January 7-8 - 2.25in then another 1in of snow
Double Barrel Low - January 11 - 4.5in of snow
Coastal Low - January 17-17 - 1.8in of snow/sleet
Arctic Front - January 20-21 - 2.1in of snow
Upper level/coastal low - January 26 - 5.75in of snow
Two clippers - January 28-29 - 1.5in of snow

Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011 (Blizzard92)
Melting begins...
Ice Storm 2011
Ice Storm 2011 (Blizzard92)
Melting begins...
Ice Storm 2011

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Quoting Hoynieva:
What a mess...

Monday Night
Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow after midnight. Lows around 19. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 50 percent.

Tuesday
Snow likely. Highs in the lower 30s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 60 percent.

Tuesday Night
Freezing rain and snow likely. Sleet likely after midnight. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Wednesday
Freezing rain likely in the morning. Rain likely. Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Wednesday Night
A chance of rain in the evening. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. Breezy with lows in the lower 20s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
yep north of that in my area all snow we could be looking at a foot or more from this event

mess to the south of me
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52257
Hoy, when is your flight schedualed for on Wed.?
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7065
What a mess...

Monday Night
Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow after midnight. Lows around 19. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 50 percent.

Tuesday
Snow likely. Highs in the lower 30s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 60 percent.

Tuesday Night
Freezing rain and snow likely. Sleet likely after midnight. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Wednesday
Freezing rain likely in the morning. Rain likely. Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Wednesday Night
A chance of rain in the evening. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. Breezy with lows in the lower 20s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1495
You do see that first batch of precip you speak of, actually, on the NAM at 60 hours that KOTG posted. Looks like it will effect most of Southern New England. Interesting we're getting back to back storms with a weak low followed by the main event.

This winter is crazy.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1495
Good analysis, Blizz. Thanks for taking the time to go over that, it definitely taught me some things.

Good to see you back, P, this blog has been missing you.

LT, I hope that's correct. As much as I know most people don't want rain on Wed, I would love rain. It can turn back to ice and snow in the evening/night for all I care.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1495
black line is the freeze line anything below is liquid

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52257
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52257
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52257
Just heard on my local NYC all news station, WCBS 880, that they say the snow is expected to start late Mon. night or very early Tues. That seems alittle early to me looking at the models. They are saying the snow late Mon. into Tues. will accumulate an inch or two, by mid day Tues., then a break , then round two with sleet and freezing rain into Wed. AM then plain rain by mid day Wed., with not much accumulation. So as of now, it does not look like another "snow storm" for the NYC metro area.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7065
Morning all and of course P451, great to hear from you and hope things work out. Looking foreward to the 12Z runs to see where they center the low pressure area as it moves NE from the mid section of the country. So far here today not that cold, 34F the huge iceicles I have out the back window are dripping, so I definitely know it's above freezing. My Baro. has steadied out at 30.01"
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7065
Now that I think about it, they should have front end loaders dumping it into dump trucks and tractor trailers that would take it to designated snow dumps not unlike a land fill. Maybe they do.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Hey P451, great to hear from you. I hope you didn't up and take your ground zero machine up to NY with you. Being only 10 miles south I was living in the area of your magical SnowLuck the last 2 yrs. here.Good Luck...settle in and c'mon back.
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BTW, good post analyzation Blizz...
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Quoting DM125:
I don't understand how it could be a low of 17 at night and have freezing rain..


It happens...
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
I don't understand how it could be a low of 17 at night and have freezing rain..
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Quoting cchamp6:
Hello winter storm lovers. Where have I been lately? Well if you know me then your guess is correct. Living in the big orange plow and winging with the grader is the answer. Today is the first day off in I dont know how long. In between clearing roads I have had to shovel my roof to keep it from collapsing. Oh and my girlfriends as well. My pile along the driveway is over 8' high at this point. It is insane. Roofs are collapsing all over the state. Snow banks are as high as they can go. We had 140" in 95-96 but I dont remember the snow pack and snow banks this high. Currently we have around 60" in northwest Ct. at this point.

So the forecast for the week is looking horrible. Snow on tues. Heavy precip on wed. Either heavy snow or snow to heavy ice. NOT GOOD!! And a possible coastal storm for fri into saturday. Are you freaking kidding me? This is a scenario setting up that is going to cause major roof collapses. Thats all thats in the news here. This is going to be a bad week. Oh I forgot to mention I had strep throat during the last week of winter storms? Talk to you during the next break. Lol.


It really makes you wonder how Syracuse NY handles 120" per season average. I mean, that's a pretty decent sized city. They already have 115" this season, average to date is 67" so they are running at 48" above average.

I realize that parts of the Tughill average over 200" mostly way out in the sticks, but 120" in a city like Syracuse? How do they do it? They've been above freezing only 4 times this month, 3 of those times during the first 4 days. And to think they could see 15" - 20" from this storm alone next week.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Quoting P451:
Morning all. Apologies for the largely unannounced departure. Things went a little south all at once and decided to relocate or face deepening problems. Currently in New York. Thanks for the concern. Will be very busy so won't have much time for internet.

Anyways on to the weather.

Seems a genuine ice threat could affect NE PA, N NJ, SE NY, SW CT for the upcoming event Tue/Wed.

Central NY State through MA seems poised for a big snow accumulation if the model trends continue to hold.

Will chime in from time to time as things progress.


Missed ya P.....while it seems that we may have some rain mixed in on we'd afternoon, sounds like we have a long term icing event for the northern nj up through coastal ct and ri area. This could get ugly.......
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Quoting jrzyshore:
So,it sounds to me that the models didn't handle the timing too well and since the snow pack info is not incorporated into the modeling the rain/snow line prediction becomes suspect.

Can anybody tell me if the data from these new storms is used immediately for future modeling? I know Blizz and others here talk about seasonal trends and it just makes me wonder if a "trend model" or "trend" data could be used for forecasting.

We certainly use it for postcasting.lol


I think the underdoing of that huge moisture plume over Florida made a considerable difference in the evolution of that storm. I believe that's why there was such a suprise snowfall Wednesday morning along I-95. It kept the two lows seperate for a while allowing the southeast low to strengthen and spread heavier precip farther northwest while allowing the low to our west to initially track a little farther northwest with its precip shield into the midwest before it started transferring towards the coast and becoming heavier than forecast (in the short-term) once that happened.

I believe that post-data is automatically ingested into the models. If it's not, it really should be. Not completely sure on that so I'd need somebody to confirm it.

I also believe the snowpack is picked up by the models, not sure how well they handle it though. You can look at the NAM's forecast snowdepth and snowdepth change on that Clownmap page.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Quoting breald:
This coming week is going to be a tough week for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Snow, freezing rain, then back to snow. May cannot get here fast enough.


I'll settle for April. No, this does not look good. And do I understand this is a pattern setting up for the next couple of weeks?

March usually brings some relief from the arctic chill and the daily nuisance snow. Crocuses and daffodils begin breaking ground. I'll settle for mid-March for that matter.
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
Quoting Ironpoe:
Numbers like "110 inches since 2009" sound big, but it's 2011. That's two years for crying out loud. When numbers like 71.5 inches land in one month, it's unbearable! That's nearly six feet of snow in 30 days. Little has melted and much of that remains on the ground.....everywhere. There is more than can be walked through all over the place. Not just in piles, but unprecedented accumulations on all lawns, street curbs, and lots. Walkways and driveways have well over four feet in every single town and city in CT. The numbers are staggering and hard to control. If this next storm hits, it will be all over the news. Roofs are collapsing, and I've never seen such activity by roofers and carpenters ever. That includes summer and boom times. This snow has not gone anywhere. People literally have narrow tubes which they call driveways. It's crazy.


The 110" since 2009 is referring to a 1 year and 1 month period of time, or equivelant to 1 winter season plus 1 month.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
47. bwi
Wow, that's a lot of precip for the mississippi and ohio valleys. HPC 1-3 day QPF.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1357
Quoting P451:
Morning all. Apologies for the largely unannounced departure. Things went a little south all at once and decided to relocate or face deepening problems. Currently in New York. Thanks for the concern. Will be very busy so won't have much time for internet.

Anyways on to the weather.

Seems a genuine ice threat could affect NE PA, N NJ, SE NY, SW CT for the upcoming event Tue/Wed.

Central NY State through MA seems poised for a big snow accumulation if the model trends continue to hold.

Will chime in from time to time as things progress.


Welcome back P!! Glad to see you up and running.
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Quoting originalLT:
Crowe1,(If you read this) it seems your blog is still messed-up. Maybe you should try and post an entire new one like Blizz did.


Thanks Lt, I just noticed mine is still all FUBAR. I'll put a new one up soon.
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43. bwi
Good morning. This next storm looks nasty with all the ice potential. HPC's prediction looks mostly north of Maryland/DC/VA. But the LWX discussion sounds like they think the cold air damming could be more persistent than the models show, and that there could be some notable icing down here too. They have raised DC temp forecast to 47 for Wednesday -- so hopefully any ice would melt off the trees and power lines. Here's the HPC winter weather discussion -- sounds like they think this next storm will be pretty high impact from the midwest into New England:

00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MAJOR WINTER EVENT FOR LATER IN
THE PD AFFECTING A LARGE AREA OF THE PLAINS TO NORTHEAST. SRN
STREAM SHRTWV WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES ON TUES AND
ASSUME A NEG TILT AS IT LIFTS OUT THRU THE SRN PLAINS... WHILE THE
NRN STREAM TROF AMPLIFIES OVER THE GT BASIN. THIS WILL RAPIDLY
DEEPEN A SFC LOW MOVING FROM THE SRN PLAINS EARLY TUE TO SRN NEW
ENG BY MIDDAY WED. A STRONG LOW LVL JET DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN
GOMEX INTO THE LWR MS VLY WILL CARRY A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE INTO
THE SYSTEM AND THROW THE MSTR BACK ACROSS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. TO SRN NEW ENG. STRONG
DEFORMATION AND AN UPR JET COUPLET COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER FGEN
FORCING WILL PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT WHILE ENERGETIC SWLY-WLY FLOW
CARRIES MSTR THRU THE OH VLY INTO THE NORTHEAST/NRN MID ATLC...
WITH AN AXIS OF OVERRUNNING. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A SWATH OF VERY
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMS FROM NORTHEAST OK TO SRN NEW ENG... AND
VERY HVY SNOW FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS/MID LS VLY ACROSS TO NEW ENG.
00Z MODELS CAME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SCOPE OF THIS
EVENT INDICATING UP TO AN INCH OF FZRA CENTERED FROM SE IA TO
W-CNTRL OH... AND WELL OVER A FOOT OF SNOW NORTH OF THIS AXIS.
MANUAL GRAPHICS EMPLOYED AN INCLUSIVE BLEND OF NAM/GFS/ECMWF TO
CAPTURE HIGHER OP MODEL OUTPUT ALTHO THE OFFICIALLY PREFERRED 00Z
GEFS... WHICH WAS SEEN AFTER THE GRAPHICS WERE CREATED...
SUPPORTED THIS HEAVIER APPROACH. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONSIDERING THIS IS 3 DAYS OUT... BUT IMPORTANT PLACEMENT ISSUES
REMAIN... SO THIS ONE WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF
MAJOR IMPACTS.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1357
This coming week is going to be a tough week for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Snow, freezing rain, then back to snow. May cannot get here fast enough.
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Looks like one of the bigger storms on tap for Northern VT. Lots of QPF in the GFS. Skis and snowmobile at the ready!

Southern stream origin of low pressure system brings ample Gulf
moisture northward...with qg and frontogenetic forcing focused
across our southern forecast area. Prospect exists for a moderate to
heavy snowfall event...with 5-10 inches across the northern half
of County Warning Area...and 6-12+ across the southern half. Raw 00z GFS quantitative precipitation forecast around
1.4" for Rutland/Windsor County suggests snow amounts pushing
12-18" are possible
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Quoting pittsburghnurse:


What will you be starting first? Very nice yard. Looks inviting. You do have a green thumb. I like the way you organized your plantings.


Thank you. I enjoy being out in the gardens as long as it's not to back breaking. the bending over gardening can really make the back sore.

I always plant onions first. They could go in the ground late March, but the soil is usually too wet. Some of my garden is put in by mid April. Again, it depends on the dryness of the soil and the temps. I love seeing all the daffodils coming up in the early Spring. They really make the yard look so nice and new as well as the buds on the Redbud, Cherry, Pear and Plum trees and any other trees I may have forgotten.

cchamp - good luck this week. hopefully, it won't be as bad for you in Ct. you probably got the sore throat from Blizz. he has been passing around his virus throughout the blog. hahahahahaha
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
Hello winter storm lovers. Where have I been lately? Well if you know me then your guess is correct. Living in the big orange plow and winging with the grader is the answer. Today is the first day off in I dont know how long. In between clearing roads I have had to shovel my roof to keep it from collapsing. Oh and my girlfriends as well. My pile along the driveway is over 8' high at this point. It is insane. Roofs are collapsing all over the state. Snow banks are as high as they can go. We had 140" in 95-96 but I dont remember the snow pack and snow banks this high. Currently we have around 60" in northwest Ct. at this point.

So the forecast for the week is looking horrible. Snow on tues. Heavy precip on wed. Either heavy snow or snow to heavy ice. NOT GOOD!! And a possible coastal storm for fri into saturday. Are you freaking kidding me? This is a scenario setting up that is going to cause major roof collapses. Thats all thats in the news here. This is going to be a bad week. Oh I forgot to mention I had strep throat during the last week of winter storms? Talk to you during the next break. Lol.
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Link
Where is everybody? Shoveling snow off of their roofs I hope.
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So,it sounds to me that the models didn't handle the timing too well and since the snow pack info is not incorporated into the modeling the rain/snow line prediction becomes suspect.

Can anybody tell me if the data from these new storms is used immediately for future modeling? I know Blizz and others here talk about seasonal trends and it just makes me wonder if a "trend model" or "trend" data could be used for forecasting.

We certainly use it for postcasting.lol
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A statement from TWC Weekend View Ray stagich - We should know who is getting the snow on Tuesday. Thank you CPT Obvious
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Numbers like "110 inches since 2009" sound big, but it's 2011. That's two years for crying out loud. When numbers like 71.5 inches land in one month, it's unbearable! That's nearly six feet of snow in 30 days. Little has melted and much of that remains on the ground.....everywhere. There is more than can be walked through all over the place. Not just in piles, but unprecedented accumulations on all lawns, street curbs, and lots. Walkways and driveways have well over four feet in every single town and city in CT. The numbers are staggering and hard to control. If this next storm hits, it will be all over the news. Roofs are collapsing, and I've never seen such activity by roofers and carpenters ever. That includes summer and boom times. This snow has not gone anywhere. People literally have narrow tubes which they call driveways. It's crazy.
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Quoting TheRasberryPatch:


thanks crowe...i am kind of ready to get them started soon. that means we will be out in the sun and warmth

btw - it is amazing the few inches we get each storm has stuck around to a good layer.


What will you be starting first? Very nice yard. Looks inviting. You do have a green thumb. I like the way you organized your plantings.
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
Crowe1,(If you read this) it seems your blog is still messed-up. Maybe you should try and post an entire new one like Blizz did.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7065
Blizz- thx for the explanation regarding the last storm.  That cleared up a few things for me.  
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very nice explanation of the last storm Blizz. It seems like the past two years storms just won't setup for us as they do along the I95 corridor. Like you said, usually Harrisburg is the bullseye.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
Blizz, it seems as though this storm has numerous cities worried about snow and ice, mostly west right now, the nws is putting up warnings(hazardous statements) but in the comments it seems that the confidence is becoming higher for an snow/ice situation from mid ohio thru johnstown, pa---what is your take on the storm? Thx for any guidance I have a couple of flights throughout the northeast I might have to take this week.
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Quoting crowe1:

Sorry everyone:(
I have no idea what happened.



No biggie. I clicked on the snow map link you post and when I went back into the blog it kept on bringing me back to your post. I finally gave up and logged off. All is good. :)
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Quoting crowe1:
By the way TRP, I was just looking at your garden pics, very nice.


thanks crowe...i am kind of ready to get them started soon. that means we will be out in the sun and warmth

btw - it is amazing the few inches we get each storm has stuck around to a good layer.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
jrzyshore:

Quite strange. Oh well, just one of those things. Glad they got it fixed!
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By the way TRP, I was just looking at your garden pics, very nice.
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TRP:
Yeah, the main blog has been over that before.

"It's just a computer," roflmao!!!

If things hold as they are, I'm in line for my first 9+" storm. Honestly, I haven't minded how it's been, a few inches of powder a week adds up nicely and keeps things looking nice. Also, there isn't as much shoveling;)
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what's up with next week?
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
Quoting jrzyshore:
Don't blame the crowe...the lock-up happened when I clicked on quote to respond to one of his comments.I couldn't untangle it.I e-mailed the site help desk.


who knows maybe it was because we were at the end of the amount of posts that the server would allow. have blogs reached almost 3000 posts before?

it happens crowe. i took you off my list as well. it was just a computer glitch. it's a computer. i hope the AI of the computer doesn't mind me saying that. oh no
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6233
Quoting crowe1:

Sorry everyone:(
I have no idea what happened.

Don't blame the crowe...the lock-up happened when I clicked on quote to respond to one of his comments.I couldn't untangle it.I e-mailed the site help desk.
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Quoting bwi:
One thing I noticed nosing around in the longer-term forecasts and discussions today is that even if this next storm is a rainmaker for us south of the Mason-Dixon line, it looks like it will usher in a lot of really cold air. -30c line gets into PA on the GFS about a week from now. And the ECMWF looks like it has additional storms following up the east coast area, which could bring additional chances of snow.


Yeah. Things seem active for a while.

For next week, GFS trending west / NAM trending east. 18Z GFS solution looks like a more typical LaNina track.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
20. bwi
One thing I noticed nosing around in the longer-term forecasts and discussions today is that even if this next storm is a rainmaker for us south of the Mason-Dixon line, it looks like it will usher in a lot of really cold air. -30c line gets into PA on the GFS about a week from now. And the ECMWF looks like it has additional storms following up the east coast area, which could bring additional chances of snow.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1357
yeah what happen to the other page?
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Hey Crowe, I took you off my Ignored list.
Those darn computers, sometimes things happen that we have no idea what is going on. All is well and back to normal........Now we just need Blizz' take on the next storm. I am worried that I am in the ice/rain region!!!
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Quoting hurigo:
Don't worry about it Crowe; it could have happened to anyone of us.


Thanks!
More snow all around!!
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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Student; Central PA SKYWARN Storm Spotter; American Meteorological Society Member; PA CoCoRaHS Branch Member

Personal Weather Stations

Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

About Personal Weather Stations