North American Mesoscale Model Verification on January 26-27...

By: Zachary Labe , 10:34 PM GMT on January 29, 2011

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The North American Mesoscale Model (NAM) is a high resolution model courtesy of the National Center for Environmental Prediction. Another very common and referenced name for the model is the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). They are the same model and run out to 84 hours. The purpose of the model is to run a higher resolution determining mesoscale features that often cannot be picked up by the global models due to their larger scale. The NAM can be run on an 80km resolution with a broad view of the United States, or 40km which allows the viewer to zoom in on a localized region to put up on mesoscale features. Also a very high resolution form of the NAM exists using a 12km parametric and can zoom into different states. The model is released four times a day at 0z, 6z, 12z, and 18z. Keep in mind that time is zulu or more commonly known as greenwich mean time.

Computer models are critical to forecasting the weather as they use parametric and other mathematical equations to derive the current and predicted state of the atmosphere using a physical and chemical explanation as the background for the predictions. The NCEP is associated with the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to be the developer of these computer models. Each meteorological organization worlwide uses their own developed computer models to serve as a basis for the forecasts. Without computer models, we are not able to derive predictions on the weather greater than 24 hours out.

Like all computer models, the NAM shows all layers of the atmosphere in maps determining positioning and speed of the jet stream, surface precipitation amounts (quantitive precipitation forecast QPF), temperatures throughout the entire core of the atmosphere, convective indices, simulated radars, etc. Due to the higher resolution of the NAM, several problems do exist. It often produces convective elements in many middle latitude cyclones and these are known as convective feedback problems. This is where it developed these unstable regions and often associates them as surface lows causing the surface depiction to be distorted. This was a problem in the recent prediction of the January 26-27 winter storm and will be noted below. Also the NAM has a tendency to produce higher than normal precipitation amounts. I typically find myself cutting totals nearly by 30% as shown on the NAM. Finally the NAM has a bias to overamplify a low pressure and close them off to early particularily on eastern United States cyclogenesis off the coast.

The January 26-27 winter storm featured many model headaches do to some interesting variables. Early on it appeared likely for a low pressure to track up inland along the coastal plain. There was a lacking 50/50 low, unfavorable position of the western trough axis, neutral NAO, natural baroclinicity along the coastline, and stale antecedent cold air mass. This would produce rain along I-95 with heavy snows inland. The 500mb synoptic pattern showed very strong signals for this time of setup with most computer model guidance also in support. The GGEM and ECMWF led the pack with the heavy snows from I-81 on westward. The GFS suffered major problems with varying solutions for each run. But then the computer models began to delay the storm. In fact it was delayed nearly 48-60 hours from the original starting time. This caused a different scenario to unfold. The lacking high pressure to the north was still a problem as the anticyclone zoomed east-northeast, but now a high pressure and associated shortwave out ahead of it allowed sunk east-southeast across the Midwest and western Great Lakes. This acted as a 'kicker' helping to push the cyclonegenesis farther off the coast. This in turn allowed for a colder scenario along with precipitation to occur farther east. Therefore a turn of events allowed for a major I-95 snowstorm with 6in+ totals from Washington DC to Boston. This was very fortunate for snow lovers in that corridor due to pure luck given the poor synoptic setup.

Given the NAM's high resolution, it often overanalyzes prognostics post hour 60. It tends to enhance QPF, overamplify lows, and pick up on mesoscale features that really do not exist. Therefore I typically throw out hours 60-84. It would be a rare event where you would find the NAM 84 hour verifying anywhere close to accurate. But in the near term range, the NAM does an excellent job locating temperature thermals, QPF ranges, and picking up on mesoscale features; coastal fronts, enhanced convection, deformation bands, etc. But in this recent storm, it suffered a plethora of problems and even the 6 and 12 hour surface maps had poor verification especially in the QPF department.

Let us first look at the actual accumulated precipitation totals for the storm.

Given this is a 24 hour accumulated precipitation amount, about .01-.1in of additional precipitation fell south of the Mason-Dixon line in the previous 24 hours.

Here are the preceeding NAM total QPF forecasts...


(January 24; 18z) (January 25; 6z)


(January 25; 12z) (January 25; 18z)


(January 26; 0z) (January 26; 6z)

As you can see, the NAM had a lot of variance with the northwestern sharp precipitation gradients. These tight gradients this year have been caused by the rapid intensification of the coastal lows allowing the heaviest moisture to be confined closer to the center of circulation. Also in this instance, a very cold and dry air mass along with associated cold front was quickly advancing southeast across the Great Lakes and was even picked up on by the 700mb RH charts. This allowed the flow out of the northwest to dry up some moisture for areas more inland.

The NAM simulated radar vs. the forecast QPF did not match up. Often the NAM simulated radar showed the heavier mesoscale bands lining up in northern Maryland and southern Pennsylvania where as it only showed total QPF to be .25in-.5in. In fact looking at total verification, the NAM did very well for its simulated radar.


(Actual NEXRAD National Radar) (6z NAM January 26 Simulated Radar)

The NAM did seem to have a hold on the 500mb map showing the negatively tilted trough producing the coastal low along with the placement of the upper level low and associated shortwave kicker just to the west.


(18z NAM January 24; 500mb) (0z NAM January 26; 500mb)

In general the differences in the 500mb maps were very subtle with just a general strengthening in the closed 500mb low, which verified a tad north of the January 24 18z model run.

The NAM did a very excellent job in identifying mesoscale band using the UUV/700mb RH charts.

(6z NAM January 26; 700mb)

It indentifed the enhanced snow growth over southeastern Pennsylvania up through New Jersey and New York City. The problems with the NAM generally existed in the QPF fields. The model likely suffered a very convective feedback issues in QPF totals. This is why it is important to note other maps than surface maps to help locate the heaviest precipitation. The 700mb map screamed that snow totals would be farther inland with the enhanced deformation band and UUV rates. In general the high resolution models handled this the best with the HRR scoring an amazing victory for QPF along with the ECMWF. The GFS/NAM did a very poor job for QPF, but as noted above QPF does not always tell the story. Sometimes it is important to note other layers of the atmosphere to help make a forecast. This point is why many forecasters missed the boat. Many forecasters (especially broadcoast meteorologists) are drawn to the easy to understand QPF/surface maps, but one has to look at all layers of the atmosphere to make a prediction.

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2010-2011 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 0-3in
Monthly Total (November)- Trace
Monthly Total (December)- 0.6in
Monthly Total (January)- 18.90in
Monthly Total (February)- 1.35in
Seasonal Total- 20.85in
Winter Weather Advisories- 7
Winter Storm Warnings- 2
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 2

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 23.7F
Lowest Low Temperature- -1.7F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First accumulating snow - December 10 - 0.50in of snow
Clipper light snow - January 7-8 - 2.25in then another 1in of snow
Double Barrel Low - January 11 - 4.5in of snow
Coastal Low - January 17-17 - 1.8in of snow/sleet
Arctic Front - January 20-21 - 2.1in of snow
Upper level/coastal low - January 26 - 5.75in of snow
Two clippers - January 28-29 - 1.5in of snow

Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011 (Blizzard92)
Melting begins...
Ice Storm 2011
Ice Storm 2011 (Blizzard92)
Melting begins...
Ice Storm 2011

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Hey Blizz,
Time for a new blog on the monster storm depicted on the GFS for Feb28-Mar2nd! If that pans out, the snow areas would be measured in many feet.
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Quoting TrentonThunder:


That goes through 7am Tuesday and you can see low#1 and low#2. They're starting with a low end snowfall for low #2 because of lack of confidence. Could pan out that way, but they're probably waiting on future runs for low #2 to decide whether to bump up the southern half of that map.

The southern half really, really, really wants to be bumped up! :)
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Was just speaking with my family in southern MI and they already have 3.5" and are expecting 7" from it.

They also upped our totals to 3-5" for the city with no changeover tomorrow. I wouldn't mind topping the all time seasonal snowfall total this season and this plus a few more light to moderate storms would do it.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
Didn't take long for the ground to turn white again and somewhat on the road already! Looked out and saw it coming down like crazy! Woo hoo!
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1663. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
1662. cchamp6

Hard to believe it was 60 on friday. In a few hours I will be plowing snow again. WTF? Snowpack is a glacier now and wont melt until May at this rate.
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Dont know, looks like we may be looking at a bust. Radar has precip into Central PA, but areas out near Pittsburgh are just beginning to report precip. The air may be too dry for this storm.
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
Quoting Blizzard92:
Here comes winter...


Any thoughts on the two-system storm coming? Are we really going to see 3-6 or is that too optimistic?
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Here comes winter...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15100
And we have snow. Just started about 15 min ago. It's baaaaack!
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
Quoting RkTec:
Mt. Holly hoisted a WWA for 3-5" of snow tonight/tomorrow morning for the Lehigh Valley. Be interesting to see this one unfold. WSW for the pocono's for 7-10".


Mt. Holly Storm Total Snow Forecast


That goes through 7am Tuesday and you can see low#1 and low#2. They're starting with a low end snowfall for low #2 because of lack of confidence. Could pan out that way, but they're probably waiting on future runs for low #2 to decide whether to bump up the southern half of that map.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
First Winter Storm Warnings out in our region across the twin tiers of PA into the Poconos, ranging from 4"-8" to 6"-12" for tonight into Monday morning for low #1.

This one out of NWS Binghamton NY...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
254 PM EST SUN FEB 20 2011


...ANOTHER WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...

.A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS
LATER TONIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE
REGION AFTER NIGHTFALL. AS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PROGRESS...PERIODS
OF HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TWIN TIERS AND THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. FARTHER NORTH...LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE FINGER LAKES
AND POINTS NORTH. SNOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BY MID MORNING
MONDAY.

NYZ022>024-055-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-211 500-
/O.UPG.KBGM.WW.Y.0010.110221T0300Z-110221T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KBGM.WS.W.0004.110221T0200Z-110221T1500Z/
STEUBEN-SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TIOGA-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHAN NA-
NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CORNING...HORNELL...WATKINS GLEN...
ELMIRA...OWEGO...MONTROSE...TUNKHANNOCK...SCRANTO N...
WILKES-BARRE...HAZLETON...MILFORD...HONESDALE
254 PM EST SUN FEB 20 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM
THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS
NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* HAZARDS: HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

* ACCUMULATIONS: 7 TO 10 INCHES OF NEW SNOW.

* TIMING: SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER NIGHTFALL. SNOW
WILL BECOME MORE INTENSE AS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PROGRESS. SNOW
WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AFTER DAYBREAK.

* IMPACTS: PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL CREATE DANGEROUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS AS ROADWAYS BECOME SNOW PACKED AND SLICK. HOURLY
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER
THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY. ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS TONIGHT ARE URGED
TO ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH THEIR DESTINATIONS.

Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Yes! Mt Holly raised my forecast from 0.7 to 3.2"! Let the precip games begin.
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1654. RkTec
Mt. Holly hoisted a WWA for 3-5" of snow tonight/tomorrow morning for the Lehigh Valley. Be interesting to see this one unfold. WSW for the pocono's for 7-10".


Mt. Holly Storm Total Snow Forecast
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
snow it shall then

LOL Thanks, Keeper! :)
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1652. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting PhillySnow:
Thanks for stepping up, TT. My kids were both really busy senior year; barely even at home with everything going on. It's great that there are a few people here who can intelligently discuss the possibilities. For me, all I can say is . . . let it snow! :)
snow it shall then

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
Thanks for stepping up, TT. My kids were both really busy senior year; barely even at home with everything going on. It's great that there are a few people here who can intelligently discuss the possibilities. For me, all I can say is . . . let it snow! :)
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Quoting TheF1Man:
Yeah TT I'm sure he is very busy. Senior year has its phases where at time you can go with the flow and others where it seems like the work never ends. All or nothing..


Not to mention relationship issues. It's a crazy period of life.

Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
Yeah TT I'm sure he is very busy. Senior year has its phases where at time you can go with the flow and others where it seems like the work never ends. All or nothing.


NWS Boston always last in putting out snowfall maps. NYC office had them out yesterday.
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
Thanks for your insight TT. It's nice to get some information on what is coming to the NE. I guess as usual with winter storms for us here it's a wait and see scenario


I'm no expert, just a ton of experience watching these things like you and many others. I still have plenty to learn once I start taking the meteorology classes beginning this fall. I just thought I'd throw some extra things out there in an attempt to keep things moving while Blizz is on hiatus.

I don't want to put words in Blizz's mouth, but it's gotta be exhausting keeping up with the blog. Especially when you consider school etc... It's no surprise that he's taking a big break considering how relentless the weather has been since December 2009.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Sticking with the theme of the past week, the predicted high was 36 for NYC today yet at the moment it's 46. I do think it will be cold enough tonight for snow, but worried about tomorrow's temps.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
I here ya on that NYCvort

NWS offices starting on the low side and issuing Winter Weather Advisories for system #1 tonight through around noon Monday morning. Keep in mind that these were released before the better looking 12Z runs today. Winter Storm Warnings will be up soon. Blizzard warnings out for the Northern Central Plains.

Winter Weather Advisories for...

CONNECTICUT: Northern Fairfield, Litchfield, Northern New Haven

MASSACHUSETTS: Berkshire

NEW JERSEY: Western Bergen, Western Passaic, Sussex

NEW YORK: Albany, Allegany, Broome, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Cayuga, Chemung, Chenango, Columbia, Cortland, Delaware, Dutchess, Erie, Fulton, Genesee, Greene, Southern Herkimer, Livingston, Madison, Monroe, Montgomery, Niagra, Onondaga, Ontario, Orange, Orleans, Ostego, Oswego, Putnam, Rensselaer, Rockland, Saratoga, Schenectady, Schoharie, Schuyler, Senaca, Steuben, Sullivan, Tioga, Tompkins, Ulster, Southeast Warren, Southern Washington, Wayne, Northern Westchester, Wyoming, Yates

PENNSYLVANIA:
Bradford, Cameron, Carbon, Center, Clarion, Clearfield, Clinton, Columbia, Crawford, Elk, Erie, Forest, Jefferson, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Lycoming, McKean, Mercer, Monroe, Montour, Northumberland, Pike, Potter, Schuylkill, Snyder, Sullivan, Susquehanna, Tioga, Union, Venango, Warren, Wayne, Wyoming

VERMONT: Bennington, Western Windham
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Thanks for your insight TT. It's nice to get some information on what is coming to the NE. I guess as usual with winter storms for us here it's a wait and see scenario
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1644. NYCvort
Very interesting how with this storm, the model trends are doing the reverse of what we saw for much of this winter—they are speeding up the northern branch of the jet stream, and slowing down the southern branch. With the N. stream upper low farther S/E, this allows for a better injection of cold air into the first wave of overrunning/isentropic lift precipitation, and it also permits the second wave of dynamic precipitation to come farther north because the N. branch upper low is already on its way out by the time the S. branch system approaches. These trends are all very good for us. My main concern is still that some of the numbers may be too high considering that the first wave is a quick-hitting overrunning scenario with little in the way of dynamics.
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Quoting originalLT:
Thanks for that chart TT, seems alittle strange that NYC gets 8" and Bridgeport CT 50 miles or so to the ENE, gets only 3" I guess I would receive , here in Stamford CT., about 4 or 5" if one was to extrapolate between the two locations.


Yeah LT, I noticed that for your location. 12Z NAM had a little gap right over Bridgeport with 3". Probably wouldn't happen that way, but I was just throwing out exact amounts at each location. Take it with a grain of salt. None of these model outputs will verify exactly anyway, I put these out to show what they're thinking at the moment for a starting point.

I'm model hugging this one because I've learned that my opinion should be thrown right out the window this season and it's better to go with an average of model guidance (as long as they initialize properly), go with that and adjust up or down from there as the event nears to take the path of least regret. I'd imagine that's what the NWS offices will be doing with this one. It looks like there's a pretty even chance of some places getting moderate or heavy accums and equal chance for other areas of getting none to light to moderate accumulations. Guidance has been coming closer together lately for a heavy northern PA snowfall with some moderate disagreement elsewhere.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Too early obviously, but maybe worth mentioning that the GFS for this Friday has that low tracking across DC and off the southern NJ coast where it develops a coastal low that moves northeast to the MA Capes Friday night to the western CA maritimes Saturday morning.

Then, has a low that moves off northeastern NC Sunday and southeast of southern NJ Sunday night. We could be getting active again...

12Z GFS Snowfall Output for tonight through Tuesday morning.:

Emporium PA: 15"
Erie PA: 14"
Williamsport PA: 12"
Wilkes Barre PA: 10"
Binghamton NY: 8"
Mount Pocono PA: 8"
State College: 7"
Buffalo NY: 6"
Westminster MD: 6"
Sussex NJ: 5"
Baltimore MD: 4"
Atlantic City NJ: 4"
Harrisburg PA: 4"
Wilmington DE: 4"
Allentown PA: 3"
Newark NJ: 3"
Philadelphia PA: 3"
Rochester NY: 3"
Torrington CT: 3"
Albany NY: 2"
Bridgeport CT: 2"
Dover DE: 2"
Hartford CT: 2"
New York NY: 2"
Pittsburgh PA: 2"
Trenton NJ: 2"
Worcester MA: 2"
Boston MA: 1"
Burlington VT: 1"
Islip NY: 1"
Portland ME: 1"
Providence RI: 1"
Washington DC: 1"
Watertown NY: 1"
Concord NH: T"
Georgetown DE: T"
Salisbury MD: T"
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Thanks for that chart TT, seems alittle strange that NYC gets 8" and Bridgeport CT 50 miles or so to the ENE, gets only 3" I guess I would receive , here in Stamford CT., about 4 or 5" if one was to extrapolate between the two locations.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7454
Jeeze, every model guidance has now shifted south with low #1 with a track near the mason/dixon line with the ECMFW even farther south than that. All of them have brought the tracks of the two lows closer together with a near training effect from west to east to where there's almost no snow hole between the two low pressure centers. According to the 12Z NAM, low #1 would produce 6"-10" across northern PA and low #2 would produce another 6"-8" over the same area. Obviously the 12" plus totals depend on whether the low centers train or not. If there's a large enough split between the two, you can almost cut the 12" plus totals right in half.

12Z NAM snowfall output from the 2 systems combined...

Emporium PA: 18"
Williamsport PA: 16"
Mount Pocono PA: 14"
Wilkes Barre PA: 14"
Erie PA: 12"
State College PA: 12"
Allentown PA: 11"
Newark NJ: 9"
Sussex NJ: 9"
New York NY: 8"
Binghamton NY: 7"
Buffalo NY: 7"
Islip NY: 7"
Trenton NJ: 7"
Rochester NY: 6"
Harrisburg PA: 5"
Philadelphia PA: 5"
Torrington CT: 5"
Hartford CT: 4"
Syracuse NY: 4"
Bridgeport CT: 3"
Wilmington DE: 3"
Albany NY: 2"
Atlantic City NJ: 2"
Pittsburgh PA: 2"
Providence RI: 2"
Boston MA: 1"
Worcester MA: 1"
Baltimore MD: T"
Burlington VT: T"
Concord NH: T"
Dover DE: T"
Morgantown WV: T"
Portland ME: 1"
Washington DC: T"
Watertown NY: T"
T": The remainder of northern VA, southeastern Maryland and Del-Mar-Va. 0" south of there.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
MorningWinds picked up Fri nite into Sat morning with peak gusts between 30-50 mph.  This zone seems to max between Deal and the Manasquan River with Sea Girt at 47 and Bradley at 45 mph.  Wind field dropped north and south of this area and to its west at the GSP.  Just an indication of the limited impacts this area of the shore may experience between and around the Manasquan-Shark River tributary areasOn Mon.   have to get the kids off to EWR  at 0500 for a 0900 flt.  It could be close.  Either getting there or lifting off. 

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Looking ahead, Friday/Saturday looks like a big rainstorm for many of us.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
hmm...

Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
Looks like most of our accumulating snow will occur with the first low. They're calling for 1-3" but the NAM leaves the possibility of 5" or 6." We'll see soon enough. I'd prefer it not to change to rain tomorrow, but that's probably unlikely.

Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
1635. bwi
HPC Day 2 snow probability.
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Good morning, everyone! 28F here with sunny skies. We're forecast for rain, snow, mix, rain, snow - mostly rain it seems. Possibly a little accumulation on Tuesday morning.
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It's been so long. (Source: Ch. 40 WGGB, Springfield, MA)

Member Since: June 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 36
The thaw was sure tantalizing. Nice while it lasted. The ample sunshine was deceiving. Back to the 20's again tonight. No one committing on amounts of snow for this region with these upcoming systems. "some" accumulation possible. Gee thanks local mets.
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
Quoting bwi:
DCA afternoon discussion:

Monday night...the low descending from Hudson Bay will move south
across New England and phase with the low/wave that came from the
Central Plains. This will draw cold air /-5 to -10c 850 mb temperatures/ down
across the middle Atlantic. Continued Gulf moisture convergence with
the trough axis will provide bands of rain to develop along the
front. As the front sags south...rapid column cooling should allow
for a changeover to a wintry mix...then snow around midnight before
the boundary/end of precipitation moves south by early Tuesday. With ground
temperatures warming from recent above normal air temperatures...any
snow late Monday night...should end up being slushy on the
ground...though min temperatures in the middle 20s are expected north.
Nevertheless...the strong baroclinic zone...as indicated by all
guidance...suggests mesoscale forcing to play an important role in
precipitation Monday night. Ample moisture and good lift should allow for
some locally heavy precipitation rates. No sleet or freezing rain in the
grids yet since the changeover to snow should be quick. Please
continue to pay attention to this Monday night scenario over the
weekend.
&&




NICE!
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1630. bwi
DCA afternoon discussion:

Monday night...the low descending from Hudson Bay will move south
across New England and phase with the low/wave that came from the
Central Plains. This will draw cold air /-5 to -10c 850 mb temperatures/ down
across the middle Atlantic. Continued Gulf moisture convergence with
the trough axis will provide bands of rain to develop along the
front. As the front sags south...rapid column cooling should allow
for a changeover to a wintry mix...then snow around midnight before
the boundary/end of precipitation moves south by early Tuesday. With ground
temperatures warming from recent above normal air temperatures...any
snow late Monday night...should end up being slushy on the
ground...though min temperatures in the middle 20s are expected north.
Nevertheless...the strong baroclinic zone...as indicated by all
guidance...suggests mesoscale forcing to play an important role in
precipitation Monday night. Ample moisture and good lift should allow for
some locally heavy precipitation rates. No sleet or freezing rain in the
grids yet since the changeover to snow should be quick. Please
continue to pay attention to this Monday night scenario over the
weekend.
&&
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I did not lose power here (lines underground), but a mile or two down the road had a large power outage today with around 3500 people out.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15100
1628. breald
It looks like we are in for a little snow Sunday night & Monday. 1-3 inches Sunday and nothing predicted for Monday. Anybody have any ideas as to what we can expect?
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
temp down to 34F with sustained winds in lower teens now. a high gust of 41mph after 1pm.

Campbelltown, PA

They have a high wind report out for LSV and Elizabethtown had a gust of 63mph and York had I think a 57mph after 330pm today
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Still no large trucks getting into or out of NJ in the Philly area...all bridges across the Delaware River have been closed to trucks. Neighbor's medium sized tree was entirely uprooted earlier. Power's made it through though. Still not expecting much around Philadelphia. Oh well.
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1625. bwi
Wind-driven brushfires close I-95 between DC and Baltimore. National Christmas tree blown over.
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1624. bwi
DC just bumped up to 40 percent chance range for 4 inches of snow. Wow.
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37 here in Brooklyn. I was over in Manhattan most of the day and a light snow squall passed through before the sun appeared. Upper 30's feels like 20 over there with the wind so strong through those concrete canyons...it blew my winter cap off.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
Temp. has been cooling down all day, now 31F, wind still Nw 15-25mph. with some higher gusts. Has been partly cloudy, with an occassional snow flurry . Stamford CT.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7454
Temps have pretty much held steady with a little decrease. been hovering around 40F now down to 38F.

the next couple of days should be interesting for the LSV

Campbelltown, PA
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1620. bwi
Temps down here in DC area seem a little higher than expected -- mid to upper 50s now. However, with the pretty steady 30 mph wind, not a great day to be outdoors...
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Quoting cchamp6:
I was just checking out the WV loop. The pattern appears to have gone back to a more blocky pattern. It looks like the same thing as earlier in the year. Systems over the Atlantic appear to be moving more westerly than to the east. Somebody with a little more knowledge care to comment?


It's just too far down stream to give us any coastal threat.

A storm for next weekend may take on a typical LaNina track and go up through the midwest and northeast up the US / CA border with rain southeast / snow northwest into eastern Canada.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
1618. crowe1
From 2/18/11 at 11:40pm
Current: High:
Wind Speed: 27.0mph 57.0mph
Wind Gust: 30.0mph 60.0mph

Wind is now 20-30mph Gust:35mph

Current Conditions

Sacandaga Lake, Broadalbin, New York (PWS)
Updated: 2 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy
22.6 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Windchill: 6 °F
Humidity: 80%
Dew Point: 18 °F
Wind: 23.0 mph from the West
Wind Gust: 27.0 mph
Pressure: 29.73 in (Steady)
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After that 60 degree weather I just want to play some golf. We had hail here last night as one of the thunderstorms passed through.
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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Personal Weather Stations

Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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