North American Mesoscale Model Verification on January 26-27...

By: Zachary Labe , 10:34 PM GMT on January 29, 2011

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The North American Mesoscale Model (NAM) is a high resolution model courtesy of the National Center for Environmental Prediction. Another very common and referenced name for the model is the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). They are the same model and run out to 84 hours. The purpose of the model is to run a higher resolution determining mesoscale features that often cannot be picked up by the global models due to their larger scale. The NAM can be run on an 80km resolution with a broad view of the United States, or 40km which allows the viewer to zoom in on a localized region to put up on mesoscale features. Also a very high resolution form of the NAM exists using a 12km parametric and can zoom into different states. The model is released four times a day at 0z, 6z, 12z, and 18z. Keep in mind that time is zulu or more commonly known as greenwich mean time.

Computer models are critical to forecasting the weather as they use parametric and other mathematical equations to derive the current and predicted state of the atmosphere using a physical and chemical explanation as the background for the predictions. The NCEP is associated with the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to be the developer of these computer models. Each meteorological organization worlwide uses their own developed computer models to serve as a basis for the forecasts. Without computer models, we are not able to derive predictions on the weather greater than 24 hours out.

Like all computer models, the NAM shows all layers of the atmosphere in maps determining positioning and speed of the jet stream, surface precipitation amounts (quantitive precipitation forecast QPF), temperatures throughout the entire core of the atmosphere, convective indices, simulated radars, etc. Due to the higher resolution of the NAM, several problems do exist. It often produces convective elements in many middle latitude cyclones and these are known as convective feedback problems. This is where it developed these unstable regions and often associates them as surface lows causing the surface depiction to be distorted. This was a problem in the recent prediction of the January 26-27 winter storm and will be noted below. Also the NAM has a tendency to produce higher than normal precipitation amounts. I typically find myself cutting totals nearly by 30% as shown on the NAM. Finally the NAM has a bias to overamplify a low pressure and close them off to early particularily on eastern United States cyclogenesis off the coast.

The January 26-27 winter storm featured many model headaches do to some interesting variables. Early on it appeared likely for a low pressure to track up inland along the coastal plain. There was a lacking 50/50 low, unfavorable position of the western trough axis, neutral NAO, natural baroclinicity along the coastline, and stale antecedent cold air mass. This would produce rain along I-95 with heavy snows inland. The 500mb synoptic pattern showed very strong signals for this time of setup with most computer model guidance also in support. The GGEM and ECMWF led the pack with the heavy snows from I-81 on westward. The GFS suffered major problems with varying solutions for each run. But then the computer models began to delay the storm. In fact it was delayed nearly 48-60 hours from the original starting time. This caused a different scenario to unfold. The lacking high pressure to the north was still a problem as the anticyclone zoomed east-northeast, but now a high pressure and associated shortwave out ahead of it allowed sunk east-southeast across the Midwest and western Great Lakes. This acted as a 'kicker' helping to push the cyclonegenesis farther off the coast. This in turn allowed for a colder scenario along with precipitation to occur farther east. Therefore a turn of events allowed for a major I-95 snowstorm with 6in+ totals from Washington DC to Boston. This was very fortunate for snow lovers in that corridor due to pure luck given the poor synoptic setup.

Given the NAM's high resolution, it often overanalyzes prognostics post hour 60. It tends to enhance QPF, overamplify lows, and pick up on mesoscale features that really do not exist. Therefore I typically throw out hours 60-84. It would be a rare event where you would find the NAM 84 hour verifying anywhere close to accurate. But in the near term range, the NAM does an excellent job locating temperature thermals, QPF ranges, and picking up on mesoscale features; coastal fronts, enhanced convection, deformation bands, etc. But in this recent storm, it suffered a plethora of problems and even the 6 and 12 hour surface maps had poor verification especially in the QPF department.

Let us first look at the actual accumulated precipitation totals for the storm.

Given this is a 24 hour accumulated precipitation amount, about .01-.1in of additional precipitation fell south of the Mason-Dixon line in the previous 24 hours.

Here are the preceeding NAM total QPF forecasts...


(January 24; 18z) (January 25; 6z)


(January 25; 12z) (January 25; 18z)


(January 26; 0z) (January 26; 6z)

As you can see, the NAM had a lot of variance with the northwestern sharp precipitation gradients. These tight gradients this year have been caused by the rapid intensification of the coastal lows allowing the heaviest moisture to be confined closer to the center of circulation. Also in this instance, a very cold and dry air mass along with associated cold front was quickly advancing southeast across the Great Lakes and was even picked up on by the 700mb RH charts. This allowed the flow out of the northwest to dry up some moisture for areas more inland.

The NAM simulated radar vs. the forecast QPF did not match up. Often the NAM simulated radar showed the heavier mesoscale bands lining up in northern Maryland and southern Pennsylvania where as it only showed total QPF to be .25in-.5in. In fact looking at total verification, the NAM did very well for its simulated radar.


(Actual NEXRAD National Radar) (6z NAM January 26 Simulated Radar)

The NAM did seem to have a hold on the 500mb map showing the negatively tilted trough producing the coastal low along with the placement of the upper level low and associated shortwave kicker just to the west.


(18z NAM January 24; 500mb) (0z NAM January 26; 500mb)

In general the differences in the 500mb maps were very subtle with just a general strengthening in the closed 500mb low, which verified a tad north of the January 24 18z model run.

The NAM did a very excellent job in identifying mesoscale band using the UUV/700mb RH charts.

(6z NAM January 26; 700mb)

It indentifed the enhanced snow growth over southeastern Pennsylvania up through New Jersey and New York City. The problems with the NAM generally existed in the QPF fields. The model likely suffered a very convective feedback issues in QPF totals. This is why it is important to note other maps than surface maps to help locate the heaviest precipitation. The 700mb map screamed that snow totals would be farther inland with the enhanced deformation band and UUV rates. In general the high resolution models handled this the best with the HRR scoring an amazing victory for QPF along with the ECMWF. The GFS/NAM did a very poor job for QPF, but as noted above QPF does not always tell the story. Sometimes it is important to note other layers of the atmosphere to help make a forecast. This point is why many forecasters missed the boat. Many forecasters (especially broadcoast meteorologists) are drawn to the easy to understand QPF/surface maps, but one has to look at all layers of the atmosphere to make a prediction.

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2010-2011 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 0-3in
Monthly Total (November)- Trace
Monthly Total (December)- 0.6in
Monthly Total (January)- 18.90in
Monthly Total (February)- 1.35in
Seasonal Total- 20.85in
Winter Weather Advisories- 7
Winter Storm Warnings- 2
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 2

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 23.7F
Lowest Low Temperature- -1.7F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First accumulating snow - December 10 - 0.50in of snow
Clipper light snow - January 7-8 - 2.25in then another 1in of snow
Double Barrel Low - January 11 - 4.5in of snow
Coastal Low - January 17-17 - 1.8in of snow/sleet
Arctic Front - January 20-21 - 2.1in of snow
Upper level/coastal low - January 26 - 5.75in of snow
Two clippers - January 28-29 - 1.5in of snow

Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011 (Blizzard92)
Melting begins...
Ice Storm 2011
Ice Storm 2011 (Blizzard92)
Melting begins...
Ice Storm 2011

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Quoting PalmyraPunishment:
SilverShipsofSlipperyWhenWet?




I posted this on my facebook earlier!
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716. bwi
33.8 in Greenbelt MD, hoping we can stay above freezing for a couple more hours and I think we'll be off the hook.
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Quoting PalmyraPunishment:
Hockey game in my parking lot begins in 15 minutes. Be there or be non-circular.


We might be able to get there but I doubt we could get home. Do you have room for all of us to stay for a sleep over?
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 270
SilverShipsofSlipperyWhenWet?


Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
Quoting Hoynieva:


Williamsburg here. Should be a tad different weather from time to time. Plus you get hit first with storms from the south, especially severe storm cells in the summer. There was even a tornado down your way over the summer.


You've got that exactly right. I was in the midst of (one of?) those little Brooklyn tornadoes this Summer, one touched down right behind my apartment while I, naturally, was looking out the front, and is documented here: Link along with much amusing YouTube commentary. You can imagine that was the highpoint of my career as a weather buff.

Not to distract from the main story. Temp here at 9:45 pm is 27 and holding pretty steady. Blizz's post at 686 makes me think we could really get iced tonight.
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27.6F here with moderate freezing rain. The droplets are small, which make them easier to accumulate to elevated objects.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
Down to 27.3 here in ono, heavy glaze on the roads. I went across the street to get the paper and almost fell. Doesn't look good for the power companies right now
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Hockey game in my parking lot begins in 15 minutes. Be there or be non-circular.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
Trees completely covered in ice. Driveway completely covered in ice - I fell. Going to be a long commute tomorrow.
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Quoting breald:


I love your new picture philly. Hopefully your folks will be okay.



Thanks Breald. That's the new family addition, Clifford. He's not so sure what to make of all this snow-pack.

I'm feeling optimistic about the folks. Boy, they sure are stubborn.
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I'd say we got about 4" today here in Jericho, Vermont.

School in many areas has already been declared closed for tomorrow.

And here's something funny I found on the Chatham (Cape Cod) Squire Pub page:

http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc6/hs023.snc6/165390_484695520965_86384660965_6357990_7990 402_n.jpg

We need a version for this storm (possibly a tad less vulgar. LOL!).
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Quoting Blizzard92:

So far everything is going exactly according to plan.


Said with a Dr. Evil laugh.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 15 Comments: 920
Quoting HurricaneLovr75:
Bliz - What are the conditions going to be like here in Boston @ 8am tommorow?


Looks iffy (I'd stay home!)...


http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=02101&hourly=1&yday=32&weekday=We dnesday
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704. ADCS
Quoting P451:
One mean machine!

WV Imagery @ 830pm ET



When's the last time we had a storm drawing moisture from the Pacific like that?
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Quoting Finky:


Blizz,

I have a steady freezing drizzle here. Everything seems to be a sheet of ice. Is everything going like you thought it would? I see the schools are already being cancelled for tomorrow in Mifflin County.

So far everything is going exactly according to plan.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
702. Finky
Quoting Blizzard92:
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
913 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-020813-
ADAMS-BEDFORD-BLAIR-CAMBRIA-CAMERON-CLEARFIELD-COLUMBIA-CUMBERLAND-
DAUPHIN-ELK-FRANKLIN-FULTON-HUNTINGDON-JUNIATA-LANCASTER-LEBANON-
MCKEAN-MIFFLIN-MONTOUR-NORTHERN CENTRE-NORTHERN CLINTON-
NORTHERN LYCOMING-NORTHUMBERLAND-PERRY-POTTER-SCHUYLKILL-SNYDER-
SOMERSET-SOUTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
TIOGA-UNION-WARREN-YORK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALTOONA...HARRISBURG...JOHNSTOWN...
LANCASTER...STATE COLLEGE...WILLIAMSPORT...YORK
913 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

.NOW...
BANDS OF HEAVY FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. TRAVEL WILL
LIKELY BE DIFFICULT AND DANGEROUS IN MANY PLACES. AVOID TRAVEL
IF POSSIBLE.
THE BANDS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.


Blizz,

I have a steady freezing drizzle here. Everything seems to be a sheet of ice. Is everything going like you thought it would? I see the schools are already being cancelled for tomorrow in Mifflin County.
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SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
913 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-020813-
ADAMS-BEDFORD-BLAIR-CAMBRIA-CAMERON-CLEARFIELD-COLUMBIA-CUMBERLAND-
DAUPHIN-ELK-FRANKLIN-FULTON-HUNTINGDON-JUNIATA-LANCASTER-LEBANON-
MCKEAN-MIFFLIN-MONTOUR-NORTHERN CENTRE-NORTHERN CLINTON-
NORTHERN LYCOMING-NORTHUMBERLAND-PERRY-POTTER-SCHUYLKILL-SNYDER-
SOMERSET-SOUTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
TIOGA-UNION-WARREN-YORK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALTOONA...HARRISBURG...JOHNSTOWN...
LANCASTER...STATE COLLEGE...WILLIAMSPORT...YORK
913 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

.NOW...
BANDS OF HEAVY FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. TRAVEL WILL
LIKELY BE DIFFICULT AND DANGEROUS IN MANY PLACES. AVOID TRAVEL
IF POSSIBLE.
THE BANDS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
Quoting P451:
Just wanted to lay out this parting bit:

Blizz called the higher likelihood for ICE STORMS for "this coming winter season" well back into fall.

Good call, man.



Good call! Thanks for reminding us, P451! :-)
And thanks for that map. Cool!
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Good luck all - Time to crash and await the morning. All of you in the ice storm areas may your power stay on and trees stay upright.- Night
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Could it be that ice storms will be more on tap for the teens like they were in the 90s?
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temp still falling. since 3pm temps have been falling from a high of 30F
25.9F
dewpt 25.2F

Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6234
Quoting GTOSnow:
Where do you get the maps of pressure drops? Also, could a low forming early and off the sc coast have been missed by everything??
coolwx.com is pretty awesome.  use the mesoscale analysis and then there are a bunch of maps within that option.  

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Where do you get the maps of pressure drops? Also, could a low forming early and off the sc coast have been missed by everything??
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heavy glaze down this way

been locked @ 28f since 7pm
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Quoting Blizzard92:
Well the freezing rain is knocking on the Susquehanna River's door. We shall see what is in store for us tonight. Down to 27.6F here.


Is that your low?? I have been rising of late......up to 23.9.... Was 23.0 just before 8 when I looked
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Well the freezing rain is knocking on the Susquehanna River's door. We shall see what is in store for us tonight. Down to 27.6F here.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045

3.5" of dry, dense snow. Sacandaga Lake, Broadalbin, New York (PWS):

18.2 °F
Overcast
Windchill: 9 °F
Humidity: 84%
Dew Point: 14 °F
Wind: 5.0 mph from the NNE
Wind Gust: 6.0 mph
Pressure: 30.31 in (Steady)
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 15 Comments: 920
Quoting SilverShipsofAndilar:


Most reliable station TV news station is probably Blizzard92's Wunderblog - just saying.


Where's the like button when you need it ?!?
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Edit: you beat me to the MD blizz, lol.
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0077
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 PM CST TUE FEB 01 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TO SERN PA...MD PANHANDLE AND W CNTRL NJ

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 020139Z - 020715Z

FREEZING RAIN...POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SLEET AT TIMES ACROSS CNTRL
PA...WILL INCREASE FROM W TO E TONIGHT. EXPECT RATES AROUND 0.05" TO
0.10" PER 3 HOURS EXCEPT IN ANY HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CELLS THAT MAY
DEVELOP WHERE RATES MAY BRIEFLY BE HIGHER.

01Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO
ACROSS MUCH OF PA INTO W CNTRL NJ. AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET WERE MOVING INTO WRN PA AS PRECIPITATION SHIELD /ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT/ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND 850 MB LOW NEAR ST.
LOUIS/ TRACKS NEWD. 23Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED AN ELEVATED
WARM NOSE AROUND 860-870 MB OF 3-6 C WITH SFC TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE LOW 20S TO NEAR 30 F ACROSS THE MCD AREA. THE ONLY
QUESTIONABLE AREA IS NEAR THE MARYLAND PANHANDLE WHERE SFC
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR FREEZING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS SFC LOW NOW OVER SRN IND/SWRN KY TRACKS E/NEWD AND ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM APPROACHING MID LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...850 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF LOW AS
WILL MID LEVEL JET /40-50 KT/...LEADING TO INCREASED FORCING THROUGH
THE SATURATED WARM LAYER. EXPECT RATES TO INCREASE ACROSS WRN PA BY
03Z...REACHING W CNTRL NJ BY AROUND 06-09Z.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
Quoting TrentonThunder:
My Aunt & Uncle just moved out to Chambersburg PA. What's the most reliable TV news station for weather out there?

PS: My dog is acting exceptionally strange right now. Not exactly sure what that means...


Most reliable station TV news station is probably Blizzard92's Wunderblog - just saying.
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36 degrees. Light rain. Dew point 35. Wind <5 out of the south west. Humidity 95%. This temp's got no where to go. Will not get to freezing tonite.
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
Quoting Blizzard92:

I do not buy that at all. In fact I think it is way off towards the Laurel Highlands which are already above freezing. Johnstown is 33F.


So are we going to get a lot less ice than we thought?
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Quoting Hoynieva:


YOU WOULD...


Daniel plus fablo equals dabbio!! Nah, I'm not that creative!! Would have been funny though.
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I work at a college in Boston. Are we looking at bad conditions in the am before the rain?
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Same here, but falling temp seems to be slowing. We're at 26.9 now.
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temp still falling 1F/hour
26.3F
dewpt. 25.3F
Campbelltown, PA
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6234
Quoting danielb1023:


I think Dabbio is an imposter pulling your leg!!!


YOU WOULD...
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Quoting Dabbio:


Been an avid lurker, a bit intimidated by all the power mets on this blog. I live on Park Slope, but believe it or not don't have my thermometer fixed up out the window...yet.


Williamsburg here. Should be a tad different weather from time to time. Plus you get hit first with storms from the south, especially severe storm cells in the summer. There was even a tornado down your way over the summer.
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Have been closely lurking. Pretty much just rain going on here. Thoughts and prayers are with you in the path of this monster's brutal bite. Spring (and TRP's rolling greens) are not that far off. Just got to get past a couple of road blocks.
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
Quoting TrentonThunder:
Looks like we might have bottomed out on the temperature fall here. Fell to 26.7F at 7:36, 26.8F currently. Forecast low was 28F.

Wind ENE 8mph, getting ever closer to Easterly.


Yeah up to 23.2 from 23.0
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Quoting Hoynieva:


Hey, when did you arrive? I've been the only one from Brooklyn, will be interesting to see different readings within the same borough. What neighborhood are you?


I think Dabbio is an imposter pulling your leg!!!
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Quoting Hoynieva:


Hey, when did you arrive? I've been the only one from Brooklyn, will be interesting to see different readings within the same borough. What neighborhood are you?
Quoting Hoynieva:


Hey, when did you arrive? I've been the only one from Brooklyn, will be interesting to see different readings within the same borough. What neighborhood are you?


Been an avid lurker, a bit intimidated by all the power mets on this blog. I live on Park Slope, but believe it or not don't have my thermometer fixed up out the window...yet.
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Looks like we might have bottomed out on the temperature fall here. Fell to 26.7F at 7:36, 26.8F currently. Forecast low was 28F.

Wind ENE 8mph, getting ever closer to Easterly.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Quoting TrentonThunder:
My Aunt & Uncle just moved out to Chambersburg PA. What's the most reliable TV news station for weather out there?

PS: My dog is acting exceptionally strange right now. Not exactly sure what that means...


Must be a STORM a-comin'!

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Quoting Dabbio:


This is not an easy call, Therefore, I shall step out rather cautiously on my front stoop in Brooklyn tomorrow morning.

Good luck to all of you to the north and west. Looks like a doozy.


Hey, when did you arrive? I've been the only one from Brooklyn, will be interesting to see different readings within the same borough. What neighborhood are you?
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Bliz - What are the conditions going to be like here in Boston @ 8am tommorow?
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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Student; Central PA SKYWARN Storm Spotter; American Meteorological Society Member; PA CoCoRaHS Branch Member

Local Weather

Scattered Clouds
53 °F
Scattered Clouds

Personal Weather Stations

Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

About Personal Weather Stations