North American Mesoscale Model Verification on January 26-27...

By: Zachary Labe , 10:34 PM GMT on January 29, 2011

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The North American Mesoscale Model (NAM) is a high resolution model courtesy of the National Center for Environmental Prediction. Another very common and referenced name for the model is the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). They are the same model and run out to 84 hours. The purpose of the model is to run a higher resolution determining mesoscale features that often cannot be picked up by the global models due to their larger scale. The NAM can be run on an 80km resolution with a broad view of the United States, or 40km which allows the viewer to zoom in on a localized region to put up on mesoscale features. Also a very high resolution form of the NAM exists using a 12km parametric and can zoom into different states. The model is released four times a day at 0z, 6z, 12z, and 18z. Keep in mind that time is zulu or more commonly known as greenwich mean time.

Computer models are critical to forecasting the weather as they use parametric and other mathematical equations to derive the current and predicted state of the atmosphere using a physical and chemical explanation as the background for the predictions. The NCEP is associated with the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to be the developer of these computer models. Each meteorological organization worlwide uses their own developed computer models to serve as a basis for the forecasts. Without computer models, we are not able to derive predictions on the weather greater than 24 hours out.

Like all computer models, the NAM shows all layers of the atmosphere in maps determining positioning and speed of the jet stream, surface precipitation amounts (quantitive precipitation forecast QPF), temperatures throughout the entire core of the atmosphere, convective indices, simulated radars, etc. Due to the higher resolution of the NAM, several problems do exist. It often produces convective elements in many middle latitude cyclones and these are known as convective feedback problems. This is where it developed these unstable regions and often associates them as surface lows causing the surface depiction to be distorted. This was a problem in the recent prediction of the January 26-27 winter storm and will be noted below. Also the NAM has a tendency to produce higher than normal precipitation amounts. I typically find myself cutting totals nearly by 30% as shown on the NAM. Finally the NAM has a bias to overamplify a low pressure and close them off to early particularily on eastern United States cyclogenesis off the coast.

The January 26-27 winter storm featured many model headaches do to some interesting variables. Early on it appeared likely for a low pressure to track up inland along the coastal plain. There was a lacking 50/50 low, unfavorable position of the western trough axis, neutral NAO, natural baroclinicity along the coastline, and stale antecedent cold air mass. This would produce rain along I-95 with heavy snows inland. The 500mb synoptic pattern showed very strong signals for this time of setup with most computer model guidance also in support. The GGEM and ECMWF led the pack with the heavy snows from I-81 on westward. The GFS suffered major problems with varying solutions for each run. But then the computer models began to delay the storm. In fact it was delayed nearly 48-60 hours from the original starting time. This caused a different scenario to unfold. The lacking high pressure to the north was still a problem as the anticyclone zoomed east-northeast, but now a high pressure and associated shortwave out ahead of it allowed sunk east-southeast across the Midwest and western Great Lakes. This acted as a 'kicker' helping to push the cyclonegenesis farther off the coast. This in turn allowed for a colder scenario along with precipitation to occur farther east. Therefore a turn of events allowed for a major I-95 snowstorm with 6in+ totals from Washington DC to Boston. This was very fortunate for snow lovers in that corridor due to pure luck given the poor synoptic setup.

Given the NAM's high resolution, it often overanalyzes prognostics post hour 60. It tends to enhance QPF, overamplify lows, and pick up on mesoscale features that really do not exist. Therefore I typically throw out hours 60-84. It would be a rare event where you would find the NAM 84 hour verifying anywhere close to accurate. But in the near term range, the NAM does an excellent job locating temperature thermals, QPF ranges, and picking up on mesoscale features; coastal fronts, enhanced convection, deformation bands, etc. But in this recent storm, it suffered a plethora of problems and even the 6 and 12 hour surface maps had poor verification especially in the QPF department.

Let us first look at the actual accumulated precipitation totals for the storm.

Given this is a 24 hour accumulated precipitation amount, about .01-.1in of additional precipitation fell south of the Mason-Dixon line in the previous 24 hours.

Here are the preceeding NAM total QPF forecasts...


(January 24; 18z) (January 25; 6z)


(January 25; 12z) (January 25; 18z)


(January 26; 0z) (January 26; 6z)

As you can see, the NAM had a lot of variance with the northwestern sharp precipitation gradients. These tight gradients this year have been caused by the rapid intensification of the coastal lows allowing the heaviest moisture to be confined closer to the center of circulation. Also in this instance, a very cold and dry air mass along with associated cold front was quickly advancing southeast across the Great Lakes and was even picked up on by the 700mb RH charts. This allowed the flow out of the northwest to dry up some moisture for areas more inland.

The NAM simulated radar vs. the forecast QPF did not match up. Often the NAM simulated radar showed the heavier mesoscale bands lining up in northern Maryland and southern Pennsylvania where as it only showed total QPF to be .25in-.5in. In fact looking at total verification, the NAM did very well for its simulated radar.


(Actual NEXRAD National Radar) (6z NAM January 26 Simulated Radar)

The NAM did seem to have a hold on the 500mb map showing the negatively tilted trough producing the coastal low along with the placement of the upper level low and associated shortwave kicker just to the west.


(18z NAM January 24; 500mb) (0z NAM January 26; 500mb)

In general the differences in the 500mb maps were very subtle with just a general strengthening in the closed 500mb low, which verified a tad north of the January 24 18z model run.

The NAM did a very excellent job in identifying mesoscale band using the UUV/700mb RH charts.

(6z NAM January 26; 700mb)

It indentifed the enhanced snow growth over southeastern Pennsylvania up through New Jersey and New York City. The problems with the NAM generally existed in the QPF fields. The model likely suffered a very convective feedback issues in QPF totals. This is why it is important to note other maps than surface maps to help locate the heaviest precipitation. The 700mb map screamed that snow totals would be farther inland with the enhanced deformation band and UUV rates. In general the high resolution models handled this the best with the HRR scoring an amazing victory for QPF along with the ECMWF. The GFS/NAM did a very poor job for QPF, but as noted above QPF does not always tell the story. Sometimes it is important to note other layers of the atmosphere to help make a forecast. This point is why many forecasters missed the boat. Many forecasters (especially broadcoast meteorologists) are drawn to the easy to understand QPF/surface maps, but one has to look at all layers of the atmosphere to make a prediction.

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2010-2011 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 0-3in
Monthly Total (November)- Trace
Monthly Total (December)- 0.6in
Monthly Total (January)- 18.90in
Monthly Total (February)- 1.35in
Seasonal Total- 20.85in
Winter Weather Advisories- 7
Winter Storm Warnings- 2
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 2

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 23.7F
Lowest Low Temperature- -1.7F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First accumulating snow - December 10 - 0.50in of snow
Clipper light snow - January 7-8 - 2.25in then another 1in of snow
Double Barrel Low - January 11 - 4.5in of snow
Coastal Low - January 17-17 - 1.8in of snow/sleet
Arctic Front - January 20-21 - 2.1in of snow
Upper level/coastal low - January 26 - 5.75in of snow
Two clippers - January 28-29 - 1.5in of snow

Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011 (Blizzard92)
Melting begins...
Ice Storm 2011
Ice Storm 2011 (Blizzard92)
Melting begins...
Ice Storm 2011

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can someone give me the logistics with this evening's storm...is it moving west to east? coming up the coast? i haven't had the time to check any maps.
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Quoting Matlack:


Hoy - hope you were able to take some pictures as it looked nice on TWC this morning up there.

At the Jersey Shore - I think I caught a glimpse of some new snow on the colder areas of grass - rain for the most part.


It was nice indeed, but I wasn't out taking photos this time. You'll get some snow tonight.

In fact, if this thing doesn't start going south soon, we're going to get more than the predictied 'flurries' here. Weird...do these people who write up the forecasts merely watch model trends without factoring in what is actually occurring on radar?
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1521
32F....i see they keep lowering the low temperature for this evening. It is now forecast to be 15F for this evening. the still have WWA for 2-5 inches
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1 inch of sleet/snow last night with a trace of ice on the trees that hasn't melted.
It started snowing at 3:25! :)
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Yay! Finally! I've been watching the radar all morning, and that storm is headed this way. :) Thank goodness it will be cold enough for snow. Still 37F.
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Yess!!!! I was just about to ask when Mt Holly is going to post some alerts.


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
313 PM EST MON FEB 21 2011

...A FAST MOVING WINTER STORM WILL RETURN SNOW AND SLIPPERY TRAVEL
TO MUCH OF OUR AREA BY MIDNIGHT...

.LOW PRESSURE IN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF
NORFOLK VIRGINIA TOMORROW MORNING. ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT
WILL GENERALLY END BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. MELTING WILL BE SLOW TOMORROW
AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

DEZ001-002-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016>018-021> 025-PAZ070-071-
221000-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0007.110222T0000Z-110222T1400Z/
NEW CASTLE-KENT-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...ELKTON...
CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...PEN NSVILLE...
GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...MEDIA...
PHILADELPHIA
313 PM EST MON FEB 21 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...THE PHILADELPHIA AREA OF SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA... SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
ATLANTIC CITY EXPRESSWAY...THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF DELAWARE
AND MUCH OF MARYLAND`S EASTERN SHORE.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE SLEET AT THE
BEGINNING BUT IT WONT LAST LONG.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...SPOTTY RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW
THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY LATE
EVENING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES AND
END BETWEEN 6 AM AND 9 AM TUESDAY.

* SNOW FALL RATES...MAY REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR SOMETIME BETWEEN 11
PM AND 4 AM.

* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY PAVEMENTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE EVENING AND VERY HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL IS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS TONIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND BE DOWN TO 20 TO 25 DEGREES BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.

* VISIBILITIES...AT TIMES NEAR OR BELOW ONE HALF MILE OVERNIGHT
IN A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.
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Quoting TrentonThunder:


Holy Moly, sorry that last post was so long! There were more 6" plus reports than I though and it got out of hand lol.

Cool, guess you have off for President's Day Blizz. How much farther north do you think radar echoes are compared to simulation? I know you guys south of the Mason Dixon don't want this to happen, but I need a 70-mile shift north to place me in the path of highest potential snowfall accumulation. I have Calculus to do and don't have any more time to look at stuff like that.

Nope, I had a snow make up for school today. Radar looks about 25-50mi farther north than the 12z NAM. Tonight will be interesting to watch. Latest HRRR model is way north with heaviest snow accumulations from Altoona to Harrisburg to north of Philadelphia.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
This seems like typical early to mid March weather. a coating of sleet on the grass

Campbelltown, PA

You can tell when the weather is about to change here. The snow geese are becoming visible in the sky now. I guess they will be heading north soon. It's a shame for such a beautiful bird that they are in such huge numbers. I hope they find a way to cull their numbers


The timing was right for all snow over this way.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Quoting Blizzard92:
.1in of snow this morning. Currently 30F. Radar looks excellent and perhaps farther north than a few simulated radars show. I will have more tonight after 8pm.


Holy Moly, sorry that last post was so long! There were more 6" plus reports than I though and it got out of hand lol.

Cool, guess you have off for President's Day Blizz. How much farther north do you think radar echoes are compared to simulation? I know you guys south of the Mason Dixon don't want this to happen, but I need a 70-mile shift north to place me in the path of highest potential snowfall accumulation. I have Calculus to do and don't have any more time to look at stuff like that.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
1707. bwi
Winter storm warning for Baltimore and northern DC suburbs. Here's LWX snowmap.
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I only got a stinkin coating and could get snow holed if the southern track of low #2 pans out. I knew there was gonna be a west-to-east V shaped snow hole somewhere (if disregarding yesterday’s 12Z NAM), just hoping it isn’t here! P451, this is all your fault!

There will be a sharp gradient on the north side of the shield tonight so areas near that gradient should keep an eye out for any snow total adjustments. With a low track slightly to the north of forecast and/or any expansion in the shield could go from expecting 0” to expecting 6” in no time. Could also go from expecting 6” to expecting 0” in no time.

THE FOLLOWING ARE 6” PLUS TOTALS FROM LOW #1…

CONNECTICUT:
Greenwich: 7.0”

NEW JERSEY
Newton: 8.0”
Ringwood: 8.0”
West Milford: 7.9”
Butler: 7.8”
Jefferson: 7.7”
Mahwah: 7.6”
Ramsey: 7.3”
Oakland: 7.1”
Allendale: 7.0”
Petersburg: 7.0”
Rivervale: 7.0”
Wantage: 7.0”
Wayne: 7.0”
Marcella: 6.7”
Hawthorne: 6.5”
Ridgewood: 6.3”
Sparta: 6.3”
Blairstown: 6.2”
Fredon: 6.0”

NEW YORK
Frewsburg: 10.3”
Forestville: 10.0”
Wellsville: 10.0”
Whitesville: 10.0”
5 S Corning: 9.6”
Jamestown: 9.0”
Kennedy: 9.0”
Olean: 8.2”
Yulan: 8.0”
Belmont: 7.8”
Elmira: 7.5”
Chemung: 7.2”
Hornell: 7.0”
New Hempstead: 7.0”
Thornwood: 7.0”
Warwick: 6.7”
Painted Post: 6.5”
Scarsdale: 6.2”
Armonk: 6.1”
Harrison: 6.1”
Hornell Almond Dam: 6.1”
Dansville: 6.0”
Hinsdale: 6.0”
Nanuet: 6.0”
Nyack: 6.0”
Windham: 6.0”
Yonkers: 6.0”

PENNSYLVANIA:
Coudersport: 14.0”
Colt Station: 13.0”
Wellsboro: 12.2”
Sabinsville: 12.0”
Westfield: 12.0”
6 SSE Erie: 10.5”
Fairview: 10.5”
Granville Summit: 10.5”
Waterloo: 10.5”
Galeton: 10.4”
Bumpville: 10.2”
Alba: 10.0”
Chandlers Valley: 10.0”
Covington: 10.0”
Moscow: 10.0”
Roseville: 10.0”
Marienville: 9.6”
Laporte: 9.5”
6 SW Northeast: 10.0”
Tobyhanna: 9.3”
6 SW Erie: 9.2”
8 SW Harveys Lake: 9.1”
Corry: 9.0”
Cowanesque Dam: 9.0”
Dallas: 9.0”
2 WSW Erie Airport: 9.0”
Moosic: 9.0”
Pocono Peak Lake: 9.0”
Millcreek: 8.8”
Chapman Lake: 8.0”
Stevenson Dam: 8.0”
West Hickory: 8.0”
Renovo: 7.9”
St Mary’s: 7.9”
Warren: 7.5”
Kane: 7.2”
Amity: 7.1”
Hawley: 7.0”
Lake Harmony: 7.0”
Mountain Top: 7.0”
Ridgway: 7.0”
Wilkes Barre: 7.0”
Blooming Valley: 6.8”
Titusville: 6.8”
Waterford: 6.3”
Franklin Center: 6.1”
Matamoras: 6.7”
North East: 6.6”
Gold Key Lake: 6.5”
Mifflinburg: 6.1”
Beach Lake: 6.0”
Nescopeck Pass: 6.0”
Oil City: 6.0”
Pleasant Mount: 6.0”
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
.1in of snow this morning. Currently 30F. Radar looks excellent and perhaps farther north than a few simulated radars show. I will have more tonight after 8pm.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
1704. Matlack
Quoting Hoynieva:
2" thus far here in the city. A beautiful sticky snow coating everything other than the main roads.


Hoy - hope you were able to take some pictures as it looked nice on TWC this morning up there.

At the Jersey Shore - I think I caught a glimpse of some new snow on the colder areas of grass - rain for the most part.
Member Since: January 1, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 358
after a high of 37.5F around noon the temperature has been falling. now at 32F
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We got <2" I believe from this. Not much at all.
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Still in Chicago,

we're getting a little precip from the back end of the system heading towards all of you.

NWS is sayin 3-7" for Shippensburg, PA and they are under a WSWatch
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Zero accumulating snow from system #1. Oh well...
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1699. bwi
Winter Weather Advisory for DC/Baltimore:

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 AM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND SLEET...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY.


* PRECIPITATION TYPE...WINTRY MIX CHANGING OVER TO SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...WINTRY MIX WILL BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING...THEN CHANGE
OVER TO ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT... AND CONTINUE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.

* TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S THIS EVENING...
DROPPING TO THE UPPER 20S BY TUESDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTH-NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

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WE received a nice 4.5 to 5" of snow here in Stamford CT., more than what was forecast by the locals here last night(said 1-3") But Trenton Thunder posted some of the snow forecasts and I think we hit what he posted right on the head! Thanks, TT. Now 33F Baro. is 29.72 and still falling. Wind is calm. Still hoping that the next storm's precip. shield will reach me. LT
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
1697. bwi
Much cooler than expected so far today in DC. Temps low forties, winds NE.

We we supposed to be south of a warm front at this point. Didn't happen, at least not yet.
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1696. crowe1
We've gotten about 3.5"-4" of extremely fluffy, floofy snow so far. Done for now and I don't think we'll get anything out of #2 as the Arctic high will be strong enough to push it south. At least this round covered up the ugly, brown snow.

Current Conditions as of 10:30am:

Sacandaga Lake, Broadalbin, New York (PWS)

Overcast
22.0 °F
Overcast
Windchill: 22 °F
Humidity: 81%
Dew Point: 17 °F
Wind: 4.0 mph from the NE
Wind Gust: 4.0 mph
Pressure: 29.88 in (Falling)
Visibility: 7.0 mil
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
This seems like typical early to mid March weather. a coating of sleet on the grass

Campbelltown, PA

You can tell when the weather is about to change here. The snow geese are becoming visible in the sky now. I guess they will be heading north soon. It's a shame for such a beautiful bird that they are in such huge numbers. I hope they find a way to cull their numbers


Eat them. Problem solved.
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
1694. RkTec
1.3" Total from Round 1.
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This seems like typical early to mid March weather. a coating of sleet on the grass

Campbelltown, PA

You can tell when the weather is about to change here. The snow geese are becoming visible in the sky now. I guess they will be heading north soon. It's a shame for such a beautiful bird that they are in such huge numbers. I hope they find a way to cull their numbers
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Yeeeeeees! SECOND WAVE OF LOW PRES IS FCST TO TRACK A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN
THIS MORNING/S SYSTEM...TARGETING SOUTHERN PA FOR THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP. AS PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM OVERSPREADS THE AREA LATE
TODAY...MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN INITIAL WINTRY MIX...CHANGING TO
SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. GEFS/SREF AND OPER RUNS ALL SHOWING THE
HIGHEST QPF ACROSS THE S TIER COUNTIES.
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
Did system 2 trend south overnight? Did system 2 trend south overnight? Did system 2 trend south overnight?
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
EWR: snow 1-2 in
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Coating in Hamilton NJ.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
2" thus far here in the city. A beautiful sticky snow coating everything other than the main roads.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1521
Good to hear of your snow, P!

It's a balmy 36 degrees here, birds are singing and spring continues unabated. We got some rain, and it's dry for now. Look forward to seeing how the storm plays out tonight!
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1684. RkTec
Emmaus, PA

1.0" snow accumulation as of 1 a.m.

Temp: 31 with moderate snow falling
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Light graupel here in South Jersey.
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Quoting wxgeek723:
There really is a circular dry slot surrounding my area. Is this nature's idea of a horrible joke?


Sure is a lot of virga. Precip has reached the ground at Philadelphia PA by 12:00 am.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:


Did you see the comments from people that live in the Dakota's or Minnesoda....they were laughing at that report. They see similar results in a day or so. It was classic embelished reporting from all the comments I read

maybe embelished is the wrong word...


Nah I didn't read it, just saw the headline.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
There really is a circular dry slot surrounding my area. Is this nature's idea of a horrible joke?
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Not sure if it'll be a sign of things to come, but my relatives are already at 9" with the snow still coming down in MI. They upped their expected totals to 10" and they'll probably get more.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1521
I hope I am right for you drj. there is alot of virga on the front end of the system because of the dry air that the precip. is running into. Hope the bridal shower doesn't run too late.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
Quoting originalLT:
I think it will start here in SW or Western CT, after midnight, like 2-3AM. Temp . here now in Stamford CT. is at 32F, and steady, hasn't fallen any more in the last 2 hours or so, since the overcast moved in. Saying 2-4" for me. Got the ruler ready! Not the yard stick for this one, just the ruler. Baro. is 30.00" and falling slowly.


Thank you. That's what I originally heard but the radar line was creeping pretty close. Snow line seems to actually be about mid Pennsylvania but wasn't sure how fast it was moving. Good luck, and thank you
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Quoting TrentonThunder:


Tell me about it with the temps.

Did you see that place in Oklahoma went from -28F to 72F in 6 days last week? A 100F swing.


Did you see the comments from people that live in the Dakota's or Minnesoda....they were laughing at that report. They see similar results in a day or so. It was classic embelished reporting from all the comments I read

maybe embelished is the wrong word...
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I think it will start here in SW or Western CT, after midnight, like 2-3AM. Temp . here now in Stamford CT. is at 32F, and steady, hasn't fallen any more in the last 2 hours or so, since the overcast moved in. Saying 2-4" for me. Got the ruler ready! Not the yard stick for this one, just the ruler. Baro. is 30.00" and falling slowly.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
Need some opinions, when do you think we see first flakes in western CT? I have a girlfriend driving down 91-84 and her car "no go in snow" as I put it.

Thanks in advance. I am trying to get her to leave enfield, CT but she is at a bridal shower and doesn't want to listen. I can't nail down a time frame with my skills but want to get her home safe.
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Not much happening now. What came down quickly coated grassy surfaces and cars, then turned to rain. More rain expected through tomorrow. Maybe a little ice later tonight. Snow seems to be over for now.
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Still no grip on the strength and location of the second system, but it will track farther south than the first system.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SNOWFALL FORECAST

LEGEND: Low #1 / Low #2 / Total Accumulation

MAINE

Portland: 0.6” / 0.0” / 0.6”

NEW HAMPSHIRE
Concord: 0.8” / 0.0” / 0.8”

VERMONT
Bennington: 3.9” / 0.0” / 3.9”
Rutland: 1.8” / 0.0” / 1.8”
Springfield: 1.4” / 0.0” / 1.4”
Burlington: 0.8” / 0.0” / 0.8”
Montpelier: 0.8” / 0.0” / 0.8”
Morrisville: 0.6” / 0.0” / 0.6”
St Johnsbury: 0.6” / 0.0” / 0.6”

MASSACHUSETTS
Pittsfield: 4.4” / 0.0” / 4.4”
Worcester: 2.1” / 0.0” / 2.1”
Boston: 1.3” / 0.0” / 1.3”

RHODE ISLAND
Providence: 2.4” / 0.0” / 2.4”

CONNECTICUT
Torrington: 5.2” / 0.0” / 5.2”
Hartford: 4.1” / 0.0” / 4.1”
Bridgeport: 3.9” / 0.0” / 3.9”

NEW YORK
Binghamton: 6.8” / 0.0” / 6.8”
Buffalo: 5.4” / 0.0” / 5.4”
Poughkeepsie: 5.4” / 0.0” / 5.4”
S. Queens (JFK): 4.9” / 0.3” / 5.2”
New York: 4.8” / 0.3” / 5.1”
N. Queens (LAG): 4.7” / 0.3” / 5.0”
Islip: 4.7” / 0.2” / 4.9”
Rochester: 4.6” / 0.0” / 4.6”
Albany: 4.3” / 0.0” / 4.3”
Glens Falls: 3.7” / 0.0” / 3.7”
Syracuse: 2.8” / 0.0” / 2.8”
Watertown: 2.0” / 0.0” / 2.0”
Saranac Lake: 1.2” / 0.0” / 1.2”
Massena: 0.8” / 0.0” / 0.8”
Plattsburgh: 0.8” / 0.0” / 0.8”

PENNSYLVANIA
Erie: 9.8” / 0.6” LES / 10.4”
Wilkes Barre: 8.5” / 0.8” / 9.3”
Mount Pocono: 7.8” / 0.3” / 8.1”
Williamsport: 4.5” / 2.2” / 6.7”
Harrisburg: 1.4” / 3.7” / 5.1”
Allentown: 3.8” / 0.8” / 4.6”
Reading: 2.8” / 1.5” / 4.3”
Philadelphia: 1.0” / 2.2” / 3.2”
Pittsburgh: 0.3” / 2.0” / 2.3”

NEW JERSEY
Newark: 5.1” / 0.3” / 5.4”
Trenton: 2.0” / 1.0” / 3.0”
Atlantic City: 0.0” / 1.4” / 1.4”

DELAWARE
Wilmington: 0.7” / 2.2” / 2.9”
Dover: 0.0” / 2.4” / 2.4”
Georgetown: 0.0” / 1.4” / 1.4”

MARYLAND
Hagerstown: 0.1” / 1.2” / 1.3”
Baltimore: 0.1” / 1.1” / 1.2”
Washington DC: 0.1” / 0.7” / 0.8”

WEST VIRGINIA
Martinsburg: 0.1” / 1.3” / 1.4”
Morgantown: 0.0” / 1.2” / 1.2”

VIRGINIA
Dulles: 0.1” / 0.8” / 0.9”
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Quoting cchamp6:

Hard to believe it was 60 on friday. In a few hours I will be plowing snow again. WTF? Snowpack is a glacier now and wont melt until May at this rate.


Tell me about it with the temps.

Did you see that place in Oklahoma went from -28F to 72F in 6 days last week? A 100F swing.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Quoting Snowlover2010:
Dont know, looks like we may be looking at a bust. Radar has precip into Central PA, but areas out near Pittsburgh are just beginning to report precip. The air may be too dry for this storm.


It is pretty dry at the front edge of the shield east of Pittsburgh. It'll moisten up.

At 8:00 PM
Philadelphia: Cloudy, 39.9F, 15.1D, 36% RH

In the last hour, Temperature has dropped 2.3F, Dewpoint has risen 6.1F, Relative Humidity has risen 10%.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
nm
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Quoting Hoynieva:
Was just speaking with my family in southern MI and they already have 3.5" and are expecting 7" from it.

They also upped our totals to 3-5" for the city with no changeover tomorrow. I wouldn't mind topping the all time seasonal snowfall total this season and this plus a few more light to moderate storms would do it.


Waaah! We're looking at a dusting in so ME.
Soooo, let's look ahead to next week now.... will we be plowing???
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Hey Blizz,
Time for a new blog on the monster storm depicted on the GFS for Feb28-Mar2nd! If that pans out, the snow areas would be measured in many feet.
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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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