North American Mesoscale Model Verification on January 26-27...

By: Zachary Labe , 10:34 PM GMT on January 29, 2011

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The North American Mesoscale Model (NAM) is a high resolution model courtesy of the National Center for Environmental Prediction. Another very common and referenced name for the model is the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). They are the same model and run out to 84 hours. The purpose of the model is to run a higher resolution determining mesoscale features that often cannot be picked up by the global models due to their larger scale. The NAM can be run on an 80km resolution with a broad view of the United States, or 40km which allows the viewer to zoom in on a localized region to put up on mesoscale features. Also a very high resolution form of the NAM exists using a 12km parametric and can zoom into different states. The model is released four times a day at 0z, 6z, 12z, and 18z. Keep in mind that time is zulu or more commonly known as greenwich mean time.

Computer models are critical to forecasting the weather as they use parametric and other mathematical equations to derive the current and predicted state of the atmosphere using a physical and chemical explanation as the background for the predictions. The NCEP is associated with the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to be the developer of these computer models. Each meteorological organization worlwide uses their own developed computer models to serve as a basis for the forecasts. Without computer models, we are not able to derive predictions on the weather greater than 24 hours out.

Like all computer models, the NAM shows all layers of the atmosphere in maps determining positioning and speed of the jet stream, surface precipitation amounts (quantitive precipitation forecast QPF), temperatures throughout the entire core of the atmosphere, convective indices, simulated radars, etc. Due to the higher resolution of the NAM, several problems do exist. It often produces convective elements in many middle latitude cyclones and these are known as convective feedback problems. This is where it developed these unstable regions and often associates them as surface lows causing the surface depiction to be distorted. This was a problem in the recent prediction of the January 26-27 winter storm and will be noted below. Also the NAM has a tendency to produce higher than normal precipitation amounts. I typically find myself cutting totals nearly by 30% as shown on the NAM. Finally the NAM has a bias to overamplify a low pressure and close them off to early particularily on eastern United States cyclogenesis off the coast.

The January 26-27 winter storm featured many model headaches do to some interesting variables. Early on it appeared likely for a low pressure to track up inland along the coastal plain. There was a lacking 50/50 low, unfavorable position of the western trough axis, neutral NAO, natural baroclinicity along the coastline, and stale antecedent cold air mass. This would produce rain along I-95 with heavy snows inland. The 500mb synoptic pattern showed very strong signals for this time of setup with most computer model guidance also in support. The GGEM and ECMWF led the pack with the heavy snows from I-81 on westward. The GFS suffered major problems with varying solutions for each run. But then the computer models began to delay the storm. In fact it was delayed nearly 48-60 hours from the original starting time. This caused a different scenario to unfold. The lacking high pressure to the north was still a problem as the anticyclone zoomed east-northeast, but now a high pressure and associated shortwave out ahead of it allowed sunk east-southeast across the Midwest and western Great Lakes. This acted as a 'kicker' helping to push the cyclonegenesis farther off the coast. This in turn allowed for a colder scenario along with precipitation to occur farther east. Therefore a turn of events allowed for a major I-95 snowstorm with 6in+ totals from Washington DC to Boston. This was very fortunate for snow lovers in that corridor due to pure luck given the poor synoptic setup.

Given the NAM's high resolution, it often overanalyzes prognostics post hour 60. It tends to enhance QPF, overamplify lows, and pick up on mesoscale features that really do not exist. Therefore I typically throw out hours 60-84. It would be a rare event where you would find the NAM 84 hour verifying anywhere close to accurate. But in the near term range, the NAM does an excellent job locating temperature thermals, QPF ranges, and picking up on mesoscale features; coastal fronts, enhanced convection, deformation bands, etc. But in this recent storm, it suffered a plethora of problems and even the 6 and 12 hour surface maps had poor verification especially in the QPF department.

Let us first look at the actual accumulated precipitation totals for the storm.

Given this is a 24 hour accumulated precipitation amount, about .01-.1in of additional precipitation fell south of the Mason-Dixon line in the previous 24 hours.

Here are the preceeding NAM total QPF forecasts...


(January 24; 18z) (January 25; 6z)


(January 25; 12z) (January 25; 18z)


(January 26; 0z) (January 26; 6z)

As you can see, the NAM had a lot of variance with the northwestern sharp precipitation gradients. These tight gradients this year have been caused by the rapid intensification of the coastal lows allowing the heaviest moisture to be confined closer to the center of circulation. Also in this instance, a very cold and dry air mass along with associated cold front was quickly advancing southeast across the Great Lakes and was even picked up on by the 700mb RH charts. This allowed the flow out of the northwest to dry up some moisture for areas more inland.

The NAM simulated radar vs. the forecast QPF did not match up. Often the NAM simulated radar showed the heavier mesoscale bands lining up in northern Maryland and southern Pennsylvania where as it only showed total QPF to be .25in-.5in. In fact looking at total verification, the NAM did very well for its simulated radar.


(Actual NEXRAD National Radar) (6z NAM January 26 Simulated Radar)

The NAM did seem to have a hold on the 500mb map showing the negatively tilted trough producing the coastal low along with the placement of the upper level low and associated shortwave kicker just to the west.


(18z NAM January 24; 500mb) (0z NAM January 26; 500mb)

In general the differences in the 500mb maps were very subtle with just a general strengthening in the closed 500mb low, which verified a tad north of the January 24 18z model run.

The NAM did a very excellent job in identifying mesoscale band using the UUV/700mb RH charts.

(6z NAM January 26; 700mb)

It indentifed the enhanced snow growth over southeastern Pennsylvania up through New Jersey and New York City. The problems with the NAM generally existed in the QPF fields. The model likely suffered a very convective feedback issues in QPF totals. This is why it is important to note other maps than surface maps to help locate the heaviest precipitation. The 700mb map screamed that snow totals would be farther inland with the enhanced deformation band and UUV rates. In general the high resolution models handled this the best with the HRR scoring an amazing victory for QPF along with the ECMWF. The GFS/NAM did a very poor job for QPF, but as noted above QPF does not always tell the story. Sometimes it is important to note other layers of the atmosphere to help make a forecast. This point is why many forecasters missed the boat. Many forecasters (especially broadcoast meteorologists) are drawn to the easy to understand QPF/surface maps, but one has to look at all layers of the atmosphere to make a prediction.

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2010-2011 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 0-3in
Monthly Total (November)- Trace
Monthly Total (December)- 0.6in
Monthly Total (January)- 18.90in
Monthly Total (February)- 1.35in
Seasonal Total- 20.85in
Winter Weather Advisories- 7
Winter Storm Warnings- 2
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 2

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 23.7F
Lowest Low Temperature- -1.7F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First accumulating snow - December 10 - 0.50in of snow
Clipper light snow - January 7-8 - 2.25in then another 1in of snow
Double Barrel Low - January 11 - 4.5in of snow
Coastal Low - January 17-17 - 1.8in of snow/sleet
Arctic Front - January 20-21 - 2.1in of snow
Upper level/coastal low - January 26 - 5.75in of snow
Two clippers - January 28-29 - 1.5in of snow

Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011... (Blizzard92)
.4-.5in of freezing rain
Ice Storm 2011...
Ice Storm 2011 (Blizzard92)
Melting begins...
Ice Storm 2011
Ice Storm 2011 (Blizzard92)
Melting begins...
Ice Storm 2011

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Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
what will I be looking for Blizz? and just one eye? hmmmmmmmm are we getting the $100? hahahaha the nws has 41F and rain for that time

i have one for you....when i got home last night just before 2am the temp on my weather station (@ 11 feet above ground) was reading 37F. The water on my driveway had already started to freeze and made it like a skating rink with slushy areas. I am guessing the temp at ground level was lower and the winds were helping the water to freeze. I was surprised with temp that high at my station

I had the same thing happen this morning I noticed. It was 35F when I woke up, but everything at the surface had frozen over. Also I do not know if you can tell, but Blue Mountain is covered in ice this morning at the top. It looks really neat. For Monday night, if temperatures fall cool enough I cannot rule out a 2-5in snow for central Pennsylvania. People are always looking too far in advance and then miss out tracking 'surprise' systems. Some winters a 2-5in snow would be a huge deal.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Quoting Matlack:
Good Morning all just got a new PC and have been having difficulties getting all the set up done and files moved over. It does not like my Ambient Weather software so I had to upgrade, darn... But the worse thing is it does not have a 13 pin d-sub connector so my weather station cannot be hooked up until I can find an alternative. So that being said I'm heading out to take down the Christmas decorations as this is the first time since Christmas I can safetly get on the roof and actually find the extension cords in the yard! Have a great day and I'll check in later.


my Davis Vantage Pro is a USB connector. I have had that for 4 years now and 2 computers. I use VWS from Ambient Weather. I have had no problems. Doesn't your weather station have a USB connection?

wow, about Christmas decorations. I got lucky with the weather this year. some years you wonder how long you might have the outside decorations up.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
1215. bwi
Our local NWS in DC-Baltimore area sound like they're not necessarily buying the out-to-sea scenario for Thursday yet.

Wednesday Night: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Thursday: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 27. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

MUCH UNCERTAINTY RMNS IN EVOLUTION OF WED NGT-THU SYSTEM DISCUSSED
AT LENGTH IN PREV DISCUSSIONS. ARCTIC AMS WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE
IN NERN CONUS OWING TO PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF NRN STREAM SHRTWV
TROFS. LOPRES XPCD TO DVLP WED EVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SRN STREAM SHRTWV TROF.

THIS SFC LOW WILL MOVE NEWD ALONG SWD-MOVG CDFNT DENOTING THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AMS. THE MVMT OF THIS BNDRY WILL
DICTATE THE PRECISE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
EXTENT OF ANY WINTRY PCPN FOR THE FCST AREA THU. ECMWF AND GFS IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THIS EVE THAT THE PCPN BARELY WILL GRAZE FCST
AREA. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF DP TROF OVER N-CNTRL CONUS AND
VARIABILITY IN TIMING OF NRN STREAM SHRTWV TROFS PROVIDES AMPLE
UNCERTAINTY TO PRECLUDE SGFNT CHGS TO FCST ATTM. WILL CONT WITH
CHC-LKLY SNOW THU...WITH HIGHEST POPS IN SRN/SERN ZONES CLOSEST TO
SFC LOW.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1385
1213. Matlack
Good Morning all just got a new PC and have been having difficulties getting all the set up done and files moved over. It does not like my Ambient Weather software so I had to upgrade, darn... But the worse thing is it does not have a 13 pin d-sub connector so my weather station cannot be hooked up until I can find an alternative. So that being said I'm heading out to take down the Christmas decorations as this is the first time since Christmas I can safetly get on the roof and actually find the extension cords in the yard! Have a great day and I'll check in later.
Member Since: January 1, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 358
1212. breald
It is actually kind of nice here temperature wise. The wind is another story. The good thing is the ice is going bye, bye. Now maybe I can walk the dogs without falling on my ass. Or without them slipping and sliding.

It looks like we a have a mix bag for Tuesday and snow Tuesday night.
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what will I be looking for Blizz? and just one eye? hmmmmmmmm are we getting the $100? hahahaha the nws has 41F and rain for that time

i have one for you....when i got home last night just before 2am the temp on my weather station (@ 11 feet above ground) was reading 37F. The water on my driveway had already started to freeze and made it like a skating rink with slushy areas. I am guessing the temp at ground level was lower and the winds were helping the water to freeze. I was surprised with temp that high at my station
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
Keep an eye on Monday night/Tuesday...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
'Morning all. A balmy 34.3 here with sunny skies melting the snow pack, which is not a good thing in my opinion. Going up to 41 today. I could almost get into the thought of spring, but it's the beginning of February for goodness sake! Not ready yet.

Mount Holly has us as all snow Wednesday night/Thursday; 50% POP on Thursday. I guess they agree with you, P, that it's too soon to trust any out-to-sea scenarios.
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1207. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54353
Evening, all - I've not noticed Bob Cox around here before, but you might enjoy the audio clips from the NY Blizzard of 78 he's linked in his blog. I just listened to them and they're pretty interesting. The link to the NOAA site with slides, wrap-up and etc. is worth a look, too.

Blizzard of 78 audio
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Quoting TrentonThunder:


That is right. While the big midwest / northeast storm was going during the middle of last week, the GFS in particular had a nice hit for some of us with this current storm and projected a track just slightly inside benchmark.
TT what I think the GFS missed was that it didn't pick up on the influence the upper level feature(the one moving up from AK, northeast to now western and central NYS) would have on the developement of the SE low that was supposed to move up near the Benchmark. I believe it took energy away from the SE system, kind of strung it out, made it more linear in shape, and caused it not to develope well. Its hard for me to explain, but if one could look at a 24 hour radar loop of the US, you would see what I mean. I'm not as technically versed as you guys!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7596
Quoting Blizzard92:
Sure the ECMWF could definitely be right. I just don't always utilize the computer models. More the PV a bit more west, and this low flies up inland with heavy snow back across the Appalachians. Just a day or two ago, the heavy snow on the ECMWF was across inland areas with heavy rain for I-95. Southeast ridge I think will flex its muscle with the PV shifting west allowing a farther northwest track. Tonight's storm again is a perfect example of these northwest trends. Again this is nearly 300-350mi northwest of where models had it 3-4 days ago.


That is right. While the big midwest / northeast storm was going during the middle of last week, the GFS in particular had a nice hit for some of us with this current storm and projected a track just slightly inside benchmark.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Quoting tropicfreak:
I know but I am so tired of hearing the NE getting snow after snow, while we get rain, or a little snow or sleet, so I would like to have it reverse for a change, sorry blizz, but you have seen quite a bit of good snows, I think it's my turn.


Upon further review, I see that Richmond's larget storm so far this season was 4.3" back in December. It was Norfolk that saw 14.2" from that storm.

I'd still say you've done pretty good down there seeing that you have a 10.7" running total for the season when the normal season to date is 6.9", so you've seen 155% of your normal value to date. You're only 1.7" away from your full season norm of 12.4".
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Quoting Blizzard92:
Sure the ECMWF could definitely be right. I just don't always utilize the computer models. More the PV a bit more west, and this low flies up inland with heavy snow back across the Appalachians. Just a day or two ago, the heavy snow on the ECMWF was across inland areas with heavy rain for I-95. Southeast ridge I think will flex its muscle with the PV shifting west allowing a farther northwest track. Tonight's storm again is a perfect example of these northwest trends. Again this is nearly 300-350mi northwest of where models had it 3-4 days ago.
This is why I find weather so facinating--different views over the same set-up! Blizz, what I thought the models didn't pick up on was that upper level low, kind of breaking off from the SE area surface low, and then travelling NE thru Arkansas up to SE Indiana ,then going eastward and now tranferring its energy to the coast off of eastern NE. My baro. is dropping fast at 29.31F, and the winds have really started to pick-up. Temp. up to 40F
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7596
Quoting tropicfreak:
I know but I am so tired of hearing the NE getting snow after snow, while we get rain, or a little snow or sleet, so I would like to have it reverse for a change, sorry blizz, but you have seen quite a bit of good snows, I think it's my turn.


You had a good 10" or so storm in December though right?
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
1200. crowe1
Hail? Freakin hail? Now we've every type of precip today!
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Quoting Blizzard92:
Sure the ECMWF could definitely be right. I just don't always utilize the computer models. More the PV a bit more west, and this low flies up inland with heavy snow back across the Appalachians. Just a day or two ago, the heavy snow on the ECMWF was across inland areas with heavy rain for I-95. Southeast ridge I think will flex its muscle with the PV shifting west allowing a farther northwest track. Tonight's storm again is a perfect example of these northwest trends. Again this is nearly 300-350mi northwest of where models had it 3-4 days ago.


So could this be the one for State College?
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
Sure the ECMWF could definitely be right. I just don't always utilize the computer models. More the PV a bit more west, and this low flies up inland with heavy snow back across the Appalachians. Just a day or two ago, the heavy snow on the ECMWF was across inland areas with heavy rain for I-95. Southeast ridge I think will flex its muscle with the PV shifting west allowing a farther northwest track. Tonight's storm again is a perfect example of these northwest trends. Again this is nearly 300-350mi northwest of where models had it 3-4 days ago.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
We have already hit 74 this past Wednesday.
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Quoting Blizzard92:

Eh, that was a weak La Nina. This is a very strong La Nina with 850hPa anomalies showing up on the models for the week of the 13-19 of February near 2SD for the eastern and central continental United States It could get up near 70F around that time for Richmond. This upcoming winter storm is the last chance for many for a few weeks. And really, I think this will come too far northwest for some of us.


Well I cant see why we won't get snow, throw aside La Nina, why is the EURO showing 14" of snow over us, and why are our temps gonna be below freezing the whole storm. I think that an inland track is highly unlikely, based on what I have been seeing each model run.
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Quoting NJLuLu:
Pleeeze, No More Snow for Jersey Shore. Just seeing the ugly frozen grass since Dec.
Y'all can have it. Worn out, scrapeing, shoveling, slipping and slidin.


Thank you NJ, Richmond needs it more badly than the NE.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


True, but the NAOs are going to neutral, maybe negative, plus we have had big snows during La Nina, take 1996 for example.

Eh, that was a weak La Nina. This is a very strong La Nina with 850hPa anomalies showing up on the models for the week of the 13-19 of February near 2SD for the eastern and central continental United States It could get up near 70F around that time for Richmond. This upcoming winter storm is the last chance for many for a few weeks. And really, I think this will come too far northwest for some of us.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Oh, and how much did you see during January.
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1192. NJLuLu
Pleeeze, No More Snow for Jersey Shore. Just seeing the ugly frozen grass since Dec.
Y'all can have it. Worn out, scrapeing, shoveling, slipping and slidin.
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Quoting Blizzard92:

Eh, snow has not been that great here. December we had no snow. Although January was very nice with a snow cover for the entire month. We are even a tad below normal for snowfall. But we have been getting nothing like Philadelphia on northward. Given the La Nina wavelengths showing up, it is going to get even harder for areas in the southern Middle Atlantic to get snow from here on out, unfortunately.


True, but the NAOs are going to neutral, maybe negative, plus we have had big snows during La Nina, take 1996 for example.
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Crowe, we have had lightning also, and there was a burst of hail that set up a terrific racket. 31F here.
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Quoting tropicfreak:
I know but I am so tired of hearing the NE getting snow after snow, while we get rain, or a little snow or sleet, so I would like to have it reverse for a change, sorry blizz, but you have seen quite a bit of good snows, I think it's my turn.

Eh, snow has not been that great here. December we had no snow. Although January was very nice with a snow cover for the entire month. We are even a tad below normal for snowfall. But we have been getting nothing like Philadelphia on northward. Given the La Nina wavelengths showing up, it is going to get even harder for areas in the southern Middle Atlantic to get snow from here on out, unfortunately.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
I know but I am so tired of hearing the NE getting snow after snow, while we get rain, or a little snow or sleet, so I would like to have it reverse for a change, sorry blizz, but you have seen quite a bit of good snows, I think it's my turn.
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1187. crowe1
Full-screen
Hail Storm
Fulton County, NY
Max Reflectivity: 51 dBZ
Severe Hail: 40% Chance
Hail: 80% Chance
Max Hail Size: 0.00 in.
Echo Top: 16,000 ft.
Vert. Integrated Liquid: 7 kg/m²
Speed: 60 knots
Direction (from): SW (224)
Radar Site: ENX
ID: K6
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1186. crowe1
Lotsa lightning and big thunder! No precip yet.
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Quoting Blizzard92:

Eh, I think it will be hard given current wavelengths for a snowstorm. Just look at today's event. It is nearly 300mi northwest of where models had the surface low 48 hours ago.


Just be lucky that u didn't see all rain today, we got... a crappy cold rain.
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Quoting tropicfreak:
The Euro has been real consistent in putting down a lot of snow for Richmond VA. Puts about 1.5-1.75" of QPF, or in another words, about 14-18" of snow. Lets hope that happens for us. Plus it shows the NE doesn't get battered as much, so we can finally get revenge from the NE by stealing their snow. CMC is also similar to the ECMWF as well. As for the GFS, it has done poorly in forecasting winter weather this year, so I will throw that out. Both long range models the ECMWF and GGEM agree with each other, and they are good this far out, so we will see. I can't believe that Richmond has a very good shot at a good snow, all of the lows have either traveled too far inland, or too far off the coast for us to see really any significant snow. I hope that scenario plays out.

Eh, I think it will be hard given current wavelengths for a snowstorm. Just look at today's event. It is nearly 300mi northwest of where models had the surface low 48 hours ago.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Quoting absurfer:
that is looking like a classic nc storm blockquote class='blogquote'>Quoting P451:
12Z GFS (red) and NAM (Green) on the Thursday/Friday scenario. GFS actually has two systems following each other two days apart.



Pretty far off the coast and heading ENE does not favor anything significant for the Mid-Atlantic let alone inland.

Still, got to get these couple of systems out of the way first before the steering currents become more defined.



I'm not going to pay any attention to the GFS and the NAM. They are both well out of their "good" forecasting range.
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The Euro has been real consistent in putting down a lot of snow for Richmond VA. Puts about 1.5-1.75" of QPF, or in another words, about 14-18" of snow. Lets hope that happens for us. Plus it shows the NE doesn't get battered as much, so we can finally get revenge from the NE by stealing their snow. CMC is also similar to the ECMWF as well. As for the GFS, it has done poorly in forecasting winter weather this year, so I will throw that out. Both long range models the ECMWF and GGEM agree with each other, and they are good this far out, so we will see. I can't believe that Richmond has a very good shot at a good snow, all of the lows have either traveled too far inland, or too far off the coast for us to see really any significant snow. I hope that scenario plays out.
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1181. crowe1
We have lightning!!!
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Welcome La Nina! Northwest trends from here on out including maybe Tuesday...

New blog tomorrow afternoon.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Looks like about a .1in heavy coating of snow this evening. Just enough to make the roads slippery.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
1178. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting TrentonThunder:


Yeah, I'm in the same boat as you with that thinking that an inland track is more likely than an out to sea track. 12Z and 18Z runs make me a little worried though as everything has trended even further out to sea courtesy of very little downstream blocking as it scoots out in a hurry and never really phases. You'd think that with the overall synoptic setup that the out to sea scooter just ain't gonna happen. Like P451 said, we have to get a few things out of the way to see how things might really set up. Until then...


there is a few out to sea scooters but we will see how many are out to sea soon
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54353
Quoting Blizzard92:

Yep, I do not buy the models given the positive NAO and lack of upstream blocking in correspondance with a growing southeast ridge and Nina climatology.


Yeah, I'm in the same boat as you with the thinking that an inland track is more likely than an out to sea track. 12Z and 18Z runs make me a little worried though as everything has trended even further out to sea courtesy of very little downstream blocking as it scoots out in a hurry and never really phases. You'd think that with the overall synoptic setup that the out to sea scooter just ain't gonna happen. This may be the reason that Mount Holly is hanging onto 50% snow pops based around Thursday. Snow lovers should want to see the solutions start pulling back real soon before they reach the point of no return. Like P451 said, we have to get a few things out of the way to see how things might really set up. Until then...
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Happy National Weatherman's Day Blizz!!
Member Since: February 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 24
1175. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


outside my door
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54353
Snow/sleet here with very large flakes.

Edit: now mostly moderate to heavy snow
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Not a happy camper. Found the thermostat on the furnace turned all the way down in my newly purchased unoccupied house. Was left that way overnight by one of the subcontractors. The garage door motor blew out too. Then there's shoveling and ice removal for both houses. Just sayin'

I don't recommend buying and renovating a home in winter, bottom line. Now you know my ulterior motives for wanting winter to take a dive. It'll all be better next month when we move in.
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1172. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


little snowy tonight
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54353
Happy anniversary of the first of a series of blizzards last February...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
1170. breald
Quoting IceCoast:


Ya we tried getting some off this morning, but we have a very high and awkwardly shaped roof making it very dangerous. Roof rakes are sold out everywhere. I posted pictures a few days ago, and just took some more that I will post up soon. I've never seen anything like this, except the Blizzard of '78 my parents tell me.


I remember the blizzard of 1978. As a kid we had a blast.Now, I would not want to see anything like that.
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
626 PM EST SAT FEB 5 2011

PAZ036-056>059-063>066-060045-
ADAMS PA-CUMBERLAND PA-DAUPHIN PA-FRANKLIN PA-LANCASTER PA-LEBANON
PA-PERRY PA-SCHUYLKILL PA-YORK PA-
626 PM EST SAT FEB 5 2011

...BURST OF SNOW POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...

RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS EVENING...CREATING POOR DRIVING
CONDITIONS. THE CHANGE TO SNOW SHOULD OCCUR NEAR SHIPPENSBURG AROUND
630 PM...FAIRFIELD AND CASHTOWN AROUND 640 PM...HARRISBURG
AROUND 7 PM AND LANCASTER BETWEEN 730 PM AND 8 PM. THE SNOW WILL
ONLY LAST LESS THAN AN HOUR...BUT COULD COAT THE ROADWAYS.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Quoting GWphilly:
"All good things arrive unto them that wait - and don't die in the meantime" M. Twain.

Blizz/Zack, it has been so amazing watching you develop over the last couple years--best of luck, you earned it! Plus you have the best blog going on WU! Woo Hoo. we will have a party!


BlizZack... wouldn't go anywhere in the winter without a full set.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
537 PM EST SAT FEB 5 2011

PAZ028-036-042-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-060137-
ADAMS-COLUMBIA-CUMBERLAND-DAUPHIN-FRANKLIN-JUNIATA-LANCASTER-LEBANON-
MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-PERRY-SCHUYLKILL-SNYDER-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-UNION-YORK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARRISBURG...LANCASTER...WILLIAMSPORT...
YORK
537 PM EST SAT FEB 5 2011

.NOW...
PATCHY RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN WILL GIVE WAY TO A BRIEF BUT
WIDESPREAD BURST OF SNOW THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW WAS NEAR A MANSFIELD...
JERSEY SHORE...CHAMBERSBURG LINE AT 540 PM. THE PRECIPITATION
IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE EAST OF THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY BY 1030 PM. WHILE LESS AN
INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...THE COMBINATION OF FALLING TEMPERATURES
AND GUSTY WINDS LATER THIS EVENING WILL MAKE FOR ICY SPOTS.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112

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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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