Potential Major Storm for Eastern US for January 26-27...

By: Zachary Labe , 8:16 PM GMT on January 21, 2011

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Current wavelengths are supporting a large synoptic storm east of the Mississippi River Valley during the January 26th to the 27th with widespread moisture from the Southeaast to New England. This setup is corresponded with highly favorable teleconnections. The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) remains negative but has shifted the higher heights more east-based. This causes less blocking upstream. Blocking is typically associated with suppression and tracks of coastal lows well over 100mi off the coast. Also blocking allows for a slower movement of low pressures ushering in cold air to the right of the low in the large cold sector of the storm. When the blocking is allowed to relaxed or becomes displaced as in this instance, it allows cyclogenesis to often occur a bit farther to the west offering warmer air with a southeasterly flow off the Atlantic. This upcoming coastal threat will favor the later with dampened upstream blocking. Also the MJO (Madden-Jullian Oscillation) is entering phases 7-8. The MJO is a measure of the positioning of the monsoonal rains across the Indian Oceans. Since all global weather patterns are interconnected, differing wavelengths of pressure in the Indian Ocean will in time affect areas downstream in the jet stream across North America. Here is the current composite 500mb mean charts for an MJO phase 7 during January from a meteorological study by Allan Huffman...

Link
As noted above, increasing ridging across the western United States with a deep trough over the east coast often occurs. This corresponds to the current teleconnective pattern over North America with a positive PNA (Pacific/North American Pattern) which favors high pressure over the western United States coupled with upper level ridging.

The teleconnections are certainly signaling the classic jet stream setup for eastern cyclonegesis. But several 'issues' will likely prevent a major east coast snowstorm for areas in the major metropolitan region of the United States. Paul Kocin and Louis Uccellini's monograph of Northeast snowstorms signals the classic setup for widespread historical snowfalls to be accompanied by an arctic high pressure to the north of the storm. Typically we would root for a large anticyclone to the north or north-northeast of New England across southern Canada. This helps usher in cold air funneling in the western periphery of the low pressure. Also this helps prevent the low pressure from running too far inland.

The current synoptic setup shows the high pressure to the north of the low quickly scooting to the northeast and eventually too far east to save many from the expected rainfall. The 1/21/11 12utc ECMWF shows the banana high displaced to the east in an unfavorable location.

Kocin/Uccellini's near miss historic east coast snowstorm often featured a high pressure in a similar displaced location. Typically this would then favor inland snows with a mix or rain across eastern areas. While a severe arctic air mass will be in place along with a fresh snow pack over the Northeast, oftern these air masses can disperse quicker than one would assume. Current GGEM/UKMET/ECMWF guidance supports the upper level trough becoming negatively tilted towards the easteern Mississippi Valley. With these higher amplitude trough, the banana high is quick to depart and allows the cyclogenesis to occur farther along the coast. The 1/21/11 12utc GFS shows this evolution a tad differently, but does appear to be an eastern outlier. The 12utc GEFS mean shows a farther west solution, which often argues that the operational model is too far east. Most of my analogs support the heaviest snows well northwest of I-95 as warmer invades from the east. Despite several global models showing the low becoming vertically stacked allowing H85s to crash, there will likely be a southeast maritime flow across eastern areas.

The track of the H5 low tracks across Virginia, which is a bit too far north for a favorable snowstorm for most areas south of Washington DC for certain. Given the departing arctic air mass I would expect areas that receive mainly rainfall still to receive snow accumulations on the front end of the storm. The ECMWF mentioned earlier supports a quick 4-8in along most of I-95 before rainfall.

At this point, those farther east will be hoping to look for the 500mb low to track farther south, the banana high to become more situated north and not northeast, and the exact placement of the negatively titled trough.

While the threat is several days away, current climatology and guidance supports a very high threat of a large storm system over the eastern United States in this time frame. Whether it is rain or snow, there appears to be a large amount of moisture involved with ECMWF QPF up to 4in in northern Delaware and southeastern Pennsylvania. I know many are critical of predictions of storms well in advance, but meteorology is about understanding the synoptic setup that leads to the development of these storms. Watching the evolution of this situation will be very interesting and I am becoming increasingly enthused for those well inland. Even along the coast heavy rain and high winds are possible with a western storm track so threats will be high with any storm scenario. Stay tuned for updates throughout the weekend. For now if I had to make a forecast, this would be the precipitation scenario map.

The exact placements of the trough/shortwaves/high pressures will change, but I have not seen such consistency in the computer models for a large event in a very long time. This is also backed up by a favorable wavelength pattern as mentioned earlier in the blog. I think there is a higher possibility of this tracking farther west and inland than it tracking east. The odds of all snow along I-95 to the coast remain low given the departing high pressure. Another concern is the poor modeling this winter and the trend for storms to phase later than expected. Something to keep reminded of... Stay tuned!

Short Computer Model Introduction
This is a pretty decent quick intro on computer model forecasts along with beneficial links. Computer models use the complex calculus algorithms to print out the forecasts. Despite our complaning with the models, without them much of us would be lost except in the short time. Some of the earlier computer models consisted of the ETA, NGM, and AVN, which forecasted generally less than 84hrs. They were highly inaccurate, but provided a basis. The ETA was actually the computer model that helped meteorologists predicted the "storm of the century" in March of 1993 so well in advance. But now more than ever we have a myriad of computer models available to the general public with many mesoscale models only available to NOAA. Lets start with the general. All current computer models are based off on the Zulu time. Zulu time is also known as UTC or Greenwich time . Generally to forecast timing of storms my special BUFKIT data transitions UTC time to EST time, which is helpful. But BUFKIT is a special download, which I won't get into, but the transition is helpful as for some reason I never am able to understand time zones too well, hahaha. Anyways let me start with each computer model...

-GFS (Mentioned most of all as it is a global model (Global Forecasting System))
~Available in 0z (initiates at 10:30pm), 6z (initiates at 4:30am), 12z (10:30am), 18z (4:30pm)
~Forecasts out to 384hrs
~Typical biases
Cold bias on long range on 18z run
6z and 18z slightly unreliable
Northwest trend on lows within 84hrs of event

-ECMWF (This is another global model run by an international organization (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts))
~Available in 0z (initiates at 1:30am), 12z (initiates at 1:30pm)
~Forecasts out to 240hrs
~Typical biases
Overphases lows in 168hr range
Holds too much energy in southwest
Known as extremely accurate within 140hrs

-NAM (Mesoscale short range model)
~Available in 0z (Initiates at 9:30pm), 6z (Initiates at 3:30am), 12z (initiates at 9:30am), 18z (Initiates at 3:30pm)
~Forecasts out to 84hrs
~Typical biases
Highly inaccurate towards the 84hrs
Handles coastal storms very well and southwest overrunning events
Tendency for way too much QPF

Those three above are the most common models for a beginner in computer models, but there are many more. All of the global models consistent of ensemble models also, such as the GFS has a myriad of ensemble (small models) that create a mean solution known as GEFS. They typically are too cold and southeast with low pressures, but some reason the NWS seems to enjoy using them. There are also more global models than the GFS and ECMWF... The UKMET is run by an internation organization and forecasts out to 144hrs. This model typically comes out an hr before the ECMWF and usually is pretty similar to the ECMWF. The ECMWF may also be known as the EURO by the way. There is also a Canadian model known as the GGEM/CMC, which again contains ensemble models. All of the internation models only run 0z and 12z runs. This is probably for the best as all models only receive new upper air data in 0z and 12z runs, so this is why the American model runs of the 6z and 18z are usually worthless. There is also a high resolution Canadian model known as the RGEM, which is very similar to the American NAM. High resolution (mesoscale models) are important as they usually are able to pick up on fine details such as frontogenesis, advection, adebiatic cooling, convection, etc. Some of this high resolution models include the WRF, HIRES NMM, RUC, ARW. They all are usually very accurate, but the WRF and HIRES NMM usually have wet bias.

As mentioned above there are ensemble models which come up with a mean solution instead of using one computer model's algorithms like the global models use. These ensemble mean solution are known as the MREF and SREF with MREF being in the medium range and SREF in the short range. SREF is usually pretty accurate and forecasts within 87hrs of an event. There are also other computer models used for hurricane forecasting, but I will not get into them. For instance one is the GFDL, which you may have heard of. I find I use mainly the GFS, NAM, and WRF/NMM in the summer, but use all of the models in the winter.

A few models to avoid...
JMA
KMA
CAMPASS
DGEX

Here is a list of links for explanations on how to interperate the models...

-PennState E Wall, which runs all of the models
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html

-PennState E Wall tutorial on computer models (Check it out)
http://www.personal.psu.edu/adb241/eWallTutorial/ Main.htm

-Severe Weather parameters used on models, explanation
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/n=severe_weather_chec klist_paper

-Forecasting winter weather
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/soo/docu/precip_type. php

-NCEP; used to find American Computer models
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

-Severe Weather Models
http://www.wxcaster.com//conus_0012_us_models.htm

-Winter Weather Models
http://www.wxcaster.com/conus_snowfall.htm

-Model Soundings
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?te xt=KMDT#

The last link is listed above as model soundings which takes all of the data to print out all sorts of information including precipitation type along with dynamics such as Omega. This is very complex and takes some time getting used to. Also you may see this data instead of in charts, it is sometimes used in SKEWT T charts.

I hope all of this information helped out... Keep in mind precipitation amounts is QPF, with 500mb aloft being the jet stream, 700mb aloft measuring relative humidity, 850mb aloft measuring 5,000ft aloft temperatures, 925-1000mb measuring surface temperatures. Generally I would look at the GFS and NAM first to get a hang of it along with reading the tutorial links. Use the 850mb and 2m charts for the GFS especially as they are pretty self explanatory and color coded. You will find some maps for international models are confusing and black and white.

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2010-2011 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 1-4in
Monthly Total (November)- Trace
Monthly Total (December)- 0.6in
Monthly Total (January)- 11.65in
Seasonal Total- 12.25in
Winter Weather Advisories- 5
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 1

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 23.7F
Lowest Low Temperature- -1.7F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First accumulating snow - December 10 - 0.50in
Clipper light snow - January 7-8 - 2.25in then another 1in
Double Barrel Low - January 11 - 4.5in of snow
Coastal Low - January 17-17 - 1.8in of snow/sleet
Arctic Front - January 20-21 - 2.1in of snow

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)



This is the most difficult forecast I have ever had to make for the region. The gradient is going to be very sharp across the north and will make for a very high bust potential. This map is a bit bullish for northern areas. We shall see. Enjoy!

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2010-2011 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 4-8in
Monthly Total (November)- Trace
Monthly Total (December)- 0.6in
Monthly Total (January)- 18.15in
Seasonal Total- 18.75in
Winter Weather Advisories- 6
Winter Storm Warnings- 1
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 1

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 23.7F
Lowest Low Temperature- -1.7F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First accumulating snow - December 10 - 0.50in of snow
Clipper light snow - January 7-8 - 2.25in then another 1in of snow
Double Barrel Low - January 11 - 4.5in of snow
Coastal Low - January 17-17 - 1.8in of snow/sleet
Arctic Front - January 20-21 - 2.1in of snow
Upper level/coastal low - January 26 - 5.75in of snow

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Jersey Shore Toms River, NJ
17.1 °F
Clear
Windchill: 17 °F
Humidity: 69%
Dew Point: 9 °F
Barometer has been falling 29.2

5 lbs of bird food gone out of the feeders today, Hoping for Rain with incoming storm.
Thank You Blizz for keeping us updated.
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everyone on the "other site" is rooting for this thing to go east. BS....NYC and the big cities have had their snow. I can't even stand the wishcasting. I know I'm doing it right now, but the trends they are following are terrible. It would be sad if we get shut out again. Where do we stand now?
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
blizz on the NEW gfs, just remember we will still have alot of models all over the place, nws will take a shot at some watches by early tomorrow afternoon--models will come to a consensus for a storm slightly east of the apalacians
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NYCvort- Wow, that is awesome, thanks for posting! The December 26th blizzard featured model runs shifting east because of a kicker around the 84-96hr time period. But then they have overanalyzed the shortwave allowing the low to track farther west. It sort of has been theme several times this winter. Something to keep in mind.
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Here’s everything together from 12z, plus an old GFS run, in case you want to compare (you can click on it to make it bigger):



Quoting RkTec:
Do you think that low pressure showing up by the great lakes is acting like a kicker to send this out to sea on these recent runs?

Yes, I think so. Note how in the west solution (left) the black lines over the western Great Lakes area are more clustered, while in the east solution (right) the black lines are sharper, indicating lower pressures aloft. During many of the recent runs, the GFS, and even the NAM, have trended towards a faster, sharper northern stream shortwave, “kicking” the storm farther east, so I’m siding more with the east solution.
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Quoting absurfer:
ended up with 7.6 inches an over acheiver to say the least pics tommorow

Wow, yes please post pictures! I have always wanted to see the beach snow covered.
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Quoting absurfer:
ended up with 7.6 inches an over acheiver to say the least pics tommorow


Very nice. Sickening that you've had so much more snow than us here in DC this season, but way cool. PICS PLEASE!!!
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ended up with 7.6 inches an over acheiver to say the least pics tommorow
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Lucky 13 here!

I went ice skating on our nearby lake today. Very nice indeed.
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Hope this bottoms out soon. Down to 1. Link for my pws. Link
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Quoting cchamp6:
Dropping like a rock. 2 degrees with a dewpoint of -4 degrees. Bantam Ct.

Not too far behind you here, 7.7F.
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Quoting WalesMass:


So either way, does this mean the prospect for a big snow in interior NE has pretty much evaporated? So much for the earlier talk of "epic".


I meant areas south and east of I-95 not south and west lol
Member Since: November 17, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 527
below 8 degrees here now...Hoping for some snow sometime between tues and thurs....
Member Since: February 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 286
Dropping like a rock. 2 degrees with a dewpoint of -4 degrees. Bantam Ct.
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SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW

All cold and no snow make heavy an angry boy

15 here already.
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Quoting cicadaknot:
Hey Blizz, I just read your model explanation at the top. Just wanted to clarify the last paragraph a little. The 850mb height is closer to 5,000' as opposed to 10,000' which is roughly the 700mb level.

You are absolutely correct; thanks for pointing that out!
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Hey Blizz, I just read your model explanation at the top. Just wanted to clarify the last paragraph a little. The 850mb height is closer to 5,000' as opposed to 10,000' which is roughly the 700mb level.
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Quoting epikeia:
Thanks so much for the excellent overview of computer weather models! As a novice weather junkie I've been trying to learn about them, but this is the first concise description I've come across. Thanks again!

Sure thing! I am glad it helped someone!
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One of the colder nights I can remember, 9.9F already.
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Thanks so much for the excellent overview of computer weather models! As a novice weather junkie I've been trying to learn about them, but this is the first concise description I've come across. Thanks again!
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just remember the 1996 snow storm, the predictions were all over the place, then the storm took place, weather pros had a tough time even when the storm was going on, if my memory serves me correctly that in 1996-Philly they started the forecast with 4 inches, then 6 then 12 then over 2 ft, even in eastern ohio got close to a foot from that storm with a call for just snow showers 12 hours before and less than an inch. This is what we are dealing with, I agree with one post of widespread snow no matter what, also somebody is going to get 2-3ft---that is how much moisture is in the system, there will be a lot of warm air over ride. As the models come into more agreement early tomorrow that will slowly tell us who is getting what, but if I was a betting person, I would bet on a whopper of a storm. Some whole states(and I mean multiple states) will be covered completely by a foot of snow.
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Quoting ConnecticutWXGuy:


I'm thinking more like coastal and Eastern CT, most of Rhode Island, maybe up to Boston. Basically southeast of I-95 will get rain with almost any of the current model solutions, except for the GFS. But if the GFS comes true, the coast will receive 4 to 8 inches while everyone else gets basically nothing.


So either way, does this mean the prospect for a big snow in interior NE has pretty much evaporated? So much for the earlier talk of "epic".
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Quoting ConnecticutWXGuy:
I don't think you guys in Philly even want this track to take the coastal solution, there's too much warm air involved and it will change to rain up to 50 to 75 miles away from where the storm center passes. You'd be better off settling for the 4 to 8 inches you might get if the storm tracks a bit off the coast.

It looks to me like I'm around 60 miles from the coast so, yes, will look for somewhat off-coast center. Thanks for the hint at what to look for!
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1484
blizz- It was quite cold here this morning. It got down to 0 according to the thermometer last night, and its down to 11 already tonight.
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Looking at the 18Z GFS 96 to 102 hours out it does show a pretty healthy storm not too far from the bench-mark, but it's precip shield drops off quickly to it's West and NW, I wonder how true that would be?
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8011
I think with the strong high pressure over the middle of the country the Low pressure will be pushed south in the Gulf of Mexico states. After moving east it will start to turn northward and affect all areas of the northeast. Im just wondering where the rain snow line will be. I am hoping further east than D.C. which is not likely at this point. (Just my opinion)
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Maybe, and this is a pure novice guess, the models are having trouble interacting this Miller A system with the extreme cold high that is moving in. Being so cold, it might be setting up a different dynamic which is hard to plot/forecast this far out.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8011
The scenario is this and the models will come around to the idea, the storm will dig into the gulf of mexico then slide up slightly east of the appalacians/around baltimore---with this being said the watches and warnings will be posted as early afternoon tomorrow. This could be a slow 2 day storm with signicant snow, high winds and colder temperatures than what the models are calling for, this is going to wind up and intensify quickly Tuesday Night/Early Wednesday morning. Some Ohio and kentucky pros are calling for at least a foot on their eastern side of the states...this storm will be fun to track and watch!!!
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Quoting Snowlover2010:


Am I correct in that the northern branch system is still in Canada? Becuase if so, there are so few data locations for models in Canada that there might be some error there which will nto be fixed until it moves into the United States.

Yep, that is one of the things I am counting on to bring this farther west. We shall see.
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Quoting WalesMass:


ConnecticutWXGuy: What do you consider SE New England? Do you reckon northern CT and central MA will see rain, snow or both?


I'm thinking more like coastal and Eastern CT, most of Rhode Island, maybe up to Boston. Basically southeast of I-95 will get rain with almost any of the current model solutions, except for the GFS. But if the GFS comes true, the coast will receive 4 to 8 inches while everyone else gets basically nothing.

edit - looking at the latest GFS which is almost completely off-short, even that depicts a warmup at the coast. So yeah, at this point it looks like coastal sections are doomed to a rainy scenario. West of Hartford, and where I live near Waterbury CT - still a risk of mixing or a changeover. Once you get to northern Litchfield County and portions of Mass north of the Pike, that appears to be the most likely area for heavy snow. However, the trend today from most models has been to push that rain/snow line a bit closer to the coast not as far inland. It is still possible for the models to go to a mostly/all snow scenario even without a further off-shore solution. But at this time, the models are indicating mixing/changeover likely on the coast
Member Since: November 17, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 527
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Quoting Blizzard92:

Yea, it is dropping like a rock here too. Visible satellite shows some clouds off to our west towards Ohio and western Pennsylvania. NWS is counting on them moving in to keep a cap on lows later tonight.


Am I correct in that the northern branch system is still in Canada? Becuase if so, there are so few data locations for models in Canada that there might be some error there which will nto be fixed until it moves into the United States.
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Quoting Mason803:
kthv will get close to zero tonight

6pm ob 10f

kort- my house lol 12f

Yea, it is dropping like a rock here too. Visible satellite shows some clouds off to our west towards Ohio and western Pennsylvania. NWS is counting on them moving in to keep a cap on lows later tonight.
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kthv will get close to zero tonight

6pm ob 10f

kort- my house lol 12f
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Quoting ConnecticutWXGuy:
I'm still calling for this thing to be slightly inside the benchmark. I think SE New England will get rain, with the rest getting snow.


ConnecticutWXGuy: What do you consider SE New England? Do you reckon northern CT and central MA will see rain, snow or both?
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Quoting cicadaknot:
Also, for what it's worth, the JMA still has central PA under 1'+ of snow.

Usually it is a horrible computer model, just horrible. But I actually saw a NWS office reference it today...

NWS Albany...
THE QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND THE
NORTHEAST WILL BOTH BE IMPACTED. OUR CURRENT FORECAST WILL STAY THE
COURSE WITH THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS STORM DESPITE THE DEVIATION
MORE OUT TO SEA /OR WIDE RIGHT/ WITH THE 12Z ECMWF. WE WILL FOLLOW
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MEAN...00Z ECMWF...CAN GGEM...AND EVEN THE
LATEST JAPANESE MODEL /JMA/ OUTPUT.

Seems a lot of the offices have a similar idea that I have with a track farther west and not buying into this eastern track yet.
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Quoting Blizzard92:
Well at least we all get to see the wild model swings that the meteorologists deal with on a regular basis. I think this is why I want to get into the research aspect of meteorology or into hydrology and not operational forecast, lol.


Research? You mean as in leading to development of better forecasting tools?
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Also, for what it's worth, the JMA still has central PA under 1'+ of snow.
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RkTec pointed out that the kicker of this storm going east is the shortwave over the Great Lakes. This looks correct, but several times this winter they have been forecasted by models incorrectly this far out. If this shortwave backs off, a west shift is certainly possible.
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The NAM seems to want to bring it a little west of the GFS, we'll have another model to dissect as the 0Z NAM will be within range. However, 15Z SREF also in the Eastern camp.
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Quoting Blizzard92:
Well at least we all get to see the wild model swings that the meteorologists deal with on a regular basis. I think this is why I want to get into the research aspect of meteorology or into hydrology and not operational forecast, lol.

Good call, Blizz. Research is really interesting, and you can help advance tools for everyone that way. And you can always keep your hand in forecasting with the blog. :)
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1484
Quoting PengSnow:
Blizz, just listened to a pgh radio station and the weather person there mentioned a possibility for 1 to 2 ft in pgh with heavy wind swept snow. Additonally it will be showing very low barometer readings in the balt/dc area. Cental PA mountains could be in the 2-3ft range is this true???


1 to 2 ft? huh? Oh no. Go East. Heavy wants it. PP wants it. Give it to them. But not out to sea.
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Quoting Blizzard92:
Well at least we all get to see the wild model swings that the meteorologists deal with on a regular basis. I think this is why I want to get into the research aspect of meteorology or into hydrology and not operational forecast, lol.


especially with the GMFS (Global Mind **** System)
Member Since: November 17, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 527
Well at least we all get to see the wild model swings that the meteorologists deal with on a regular basis. I think this is why I want to get into the research aspect of meteorology or into hydrology and not operational forecast, lol.
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I'm still calling for this thing to be slightly inside the benchmark. I think SE New England will get rain, with the rest getting snow. I don't think you guys in Philly even want this track to take the coastal solution, there's too much warm air involved and it will change to rain up to 50 to 75 miles away from where the storm center passes. You'd be better off settling for the 4 to 8 inches you might get if the storm tracks a bit off the coast.
Member Since: November 17, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 527
Mount Holly agrees with you, Blizz:

MIXED PCPN IS SHOWING UP IN THE FCST OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA AS PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND SFC TEMPS WARM. THE 12Z ECMWF WAS MUCH WARMER THAN GFS GUIDANCE. TOOK A BLENDED COMPROMISE AS I THINK THE ECMWF IS NOT SHOWING ENOUGH PCPN FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1484
333. RkTec
Quoting Blizzard92:

I am not sure how much interaction there is with that shortwave, maybe.


Yeah hard to tell. Just another of many fun storms to watch play out this season. :)
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Quoting Blizzard92:
18z GFS looks out to sea.


Dunno Bliz, looks like we may have lost this one too.
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Quoting RkTec:


Do you think that low pressure showing up by the great lakes is acting like a kicker to send this out to sea on these recent runs?

I am not sure how much interaction there is with that shortwave, maybe.
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Ph.D. Student - Earth System Science (UC Irvine), B.Sc. - Atmospheric Sciences (Cornell University)

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