Potential Major Storm for Eastern US for January 26-27...

By: Zachary Labe , 8:16 PM GMT on January 21, 2011

Current wavelengths are supporting a large synoptic storm east of the Mississippi River Valley during the January 26th to the 27th with widespread moisture from the Southeaast to New England. This setup is corresponded with highly favorable teleconnections. The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) remains negative but has shifted the higher heights more east-based. This causes less blocking upstream. Blocking is typically associated with suppression and tracks of coastal lows well over 100mi off the coast. Also blocking allows for a slower movement of low pressures ushering in cold air to the right of the low in the large cold sector of the storm. When the blocking is allowed to relaxed or becomes displaced as in this instance, it allows cyclogenesis to often occur a bit farther to the west offering warmer air with a southeasterly flow off the Atlantic. This upcoming coastal threat will favor the later with dampened upstream blocking. Also the MJO (Madden-Jullian Oscillation) is entering phases 7-8. The MJO is a measure of the positioning of the monsoonal rains across the Indian Oceans. Since all global weather patterns are interconnected, differing wavelengths of pressure in the Indian Ocean will in time affect areas downstream in the jet stream across North America. Here is the current composite 500mb mean charts for an MJO phase 7 during January from a meteorological study by Allan Huffman...

Link
As noted above, increasing ridging across the western United States with a deep trough over the east coast often occurs. This corresponds to the current teleconnective pattern over North America with a positive PNA (Pacific/North American Pattern) which favors high pressure over the western United States coupled with upper level ridging.

The teleconnections are certainly signaling the classic jet stream setup for eastern cyclonegesis. But several 'issues' will likely prevent a major east coast snowstorm for areas in the major metropolitan region of the United States. Paul Kocin and Louis Uccellini's monograph of Northeast snowstorms signals the classic setup for widespread historical snowfalls to be accompanied by an arctic high pressure to the north of the storm. Typically we would root for a large anticyclone to the north or north-northeast of New England across southern Canada. This helps usher in cold air funneling in the western periphery of the low pressure. Also this helps prevent the low pressure from running too far inland.

The current synoptic setup shows the high pressure to the north of the low quickly scooting to the northeast and eventually too far east to save many from the expected rainfall. The 1/21/11 12utc ECMWF shows the banana high displaced to the east in an unfavorable location.

Kocin/Uccellini's near miss historic east coast snowstorm often featured a high pressure in a similar displaced location. Typically this would then favor inland snows with a mix or rain across eastern areas. While a severe arctic air mass will be in place along with a fresh snow pack over the Northeast, oftern these air masses can disperse quicker than one would assume. Current GGEM/UKMET/ECMWF guidance supports the upper level trough becoming negatively tilted towards the easteern Mississippi Valley. With these higher amplitude trough, the banana high is quick to depart and allows the cyclogenesis to occur farther along the coast. The 1/21/11 12utc GFS shows this evolution a tad differently, but does appear to be an eastern outlier. The 12utc GEFS mean shows a farther west solution, which often argues that the operational model is too far east. Most of my analogs support the heaviest snows well northwest of I-95 as warmer invades from the east. Despite several global models showing the low becoming vertically stacked allowing H85s to crash, there will likely be a southeast maritime flow across eastern areas.

The track of the H5 low tracks across Virginia, which is a bit too far north for a favorable snowstorm for most areas south of Washington DC for certain. Given the departing arctic air mass I would expect areas that receive mainly rainfall still to receive snow accumulations on the front end of the storm. The ECMWF mentioned earlier supports a quick 4-8in along most of I-95 before rainfall.

At this point, those farther east will be hoping to look for the 500mb low to track farther south, the banana high to become more situated north and not northeast, and the exact placement of the negatively titled trough.

While the threat is several days away, current climatology and guidance supports a very high threat of a large storm system over the eastern United States in this time frame. Whether it is rain or snow, there appears to be a large amount of moisture involved with ECMWF QPF up to 4in in northern Delaware and southeastern Pennsylvania. I know many are critical of predictions of storms well in advance, but meteorology is about understanding the synoptic setup that leads to the development of these storms. Watching the evolution of this situation will be very interesting and I am becoming increasingly enthused for those well inland. Even along the coast heavy rain and high winds are possible with a western storm track so threats will be high with any storm scenario. Stay tuned for updates throughout the weekend. For now if I had to make a forecast, this would be the precipitation scenario map.

The exact placements of the trough/shortwaves/high pressures will change, but I have not seen such consistency in the computer models for a large event in a very long time. This is also backed up by a favorable wavelength pattern as mentioned earlier in the blog. I think there is a higher possibility of this tracking farther west and inland than it tracking east. The odds of all snow along I-95 to the coast remain low given the departing high pressure. Another concern is the poor modeling this winter and the trend for storms to phase later than expected. Something to keep reminded of... Stay tuned!

Short Computer Model Introduction
This is a pretty decent quick intro on computer model forecasts along with beneficial links. Computer models use the complex calculus algorithms to print out the forecasts. Despite our complaning with the models, without them much of us would be lost except in the short time. Some of the earlier computer models consisted of the ETA, NGM, and AVN, which forecasted generally less than 84hrs. They were highly inaccurate, but provided a basis. The ETA was actually the computer model that helped meteorologists predicted the "storm of the century" in March of 1993 so well in advance. But now more than ever we have a myriad of computer models available to the general public with many mesoscale models only available to NOAA. Lets start with the general. All current computer models are based off on the Zulu time. Zulu time is also known as UTC or Greenwich time . Generally to forecast timing of storms my special BUFKIT data transitions UTC time to EST time, which is helpful. But BUFKIT is a special download, which I won't get into, but the transition is helpful as for some reason I never am able to understand time zones too well, hahaha. Anyways let me start with each computer model...

-GFS (Mentioned most of all as it is a global model (Global Forecasting System))
~Available in 0z (initiates at 10:30pm), 6z (initiates at 4:30am), 12z (10:30am), 18z (4:30pm)
~Forecasts out to 384hrs
~Typical biases
Cold bias on long range on 18z run
6z and 18z slightly unreliable
Northwest trend on lows within 84hrs of event

-ECMWF (This is another global model run by an international organization (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts))
~Available in 0z (initiates at 1:30am), 12z (initiates at 1:30pm)
~Forecasts out to 240hrs
~Typical biases
Overphases lows in 168hr range
Holds too much energy in southwest
Known as extremely accurate within 140hrs

-NAM (Mesoscale short range model)
~Available in 0z (Initiates at 9:30pm), 6z (Initiates at 3:30am), 12z (initiates at 9:30am), 18z (Initiates at 3:30pm)
~Forecasts out to 84hrs
~Typical biases
Highly inaccurate towards the 84hrs
Handles coastal storms very well and southwest overrunning events
Tendency for way too much QPF

Those three above are the most common models for a beginner in computer models, but there are many more. All of the global models consistent of ensemble models also, such as the GFS has a myriad of ensemble (small models) that create a mean solution known as GEFS. They typically are too cold and southeast with low pressures, but some reason the NWS seems to enjoy using them. There are also more global models than the GFS and ECMWF... The UKMET is run by an internation organization and forecasts out to 144hrs. This model typically comes out an hr before the ECMWF and usually is pretty similar to the ECMWF. The ECMWF may also be known as the EURO by the way. There is also a Canadian model known as the GGEM/CMC, which again contains ensemble models. All of the internation models only run 0z and 12z runs. This is probably for the best as all models only receive new upper air data in 0z and 12z runs, so this is why the American model runs of the 6z and 18z are usually worthless. There is also a high resolution Canadian model known as the RGEM, which is very similar to the American NAM. High resolution (mesoscale models) are important as they usually are able to pick up on fine details such as frontogenesis, advection, adebiatic cooling, convection, etc. Some of this high resolution models include the WRF, HIRES NMM, RUC, ARW. They all are usually very accurate, but the WRF and HIRES NMM usually have wet bias.

As mentioned above there are ensemble models which come up with a mean solution instead of using one computer model's algorithms like the global models use. These ensemble mean solution are known as the MREF and SREF with MREF being in the medium range and SREF in the short range. SREF is usually pretty accurate and forecasts within 87hrs of an event. There are also other computer models used for hurricane forecasting, but I will not get into them. For instance one is the GFDL, which you may have heard of. I find I use mainly the GFS, NAM, and WRF/NMM in the summer, but use all of the models in the winter.

A few models to avoid...
JMA
KMA
CAMPASS
DGEX

Here is a list of links for explanations on how to interperate the models...

-PennState E Wall, which runs all of the models
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html

-PennState E Wall tutorial on computer models (Check it out)
http://www.personal.psu.edu/adb241/eWallTutorial/ Main.htm

-Severe Weather parameters used on models, explanation
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/n=severe_weather_chec klist_paper

-Forecasting winter weather
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/soo/docu/precip_type. php

-NCEP; used to find American Computer models
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

-Severe Weather Models
http://www.wxcaster.com//conus_0012_us_models.htm

-Winter Weather Models
http://www.wxcaster.com/conus_snowfall.htm

-Model Soundings
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?te xt=KMDT#

The last link is listed above as model soundings which takes all of the data to print out all sorts of information including precipitation type along with dynamics such as Omega. This is very complex and takes some time getting used to. Also you may see this data instead of in charts, it is sometimes used in SKEWT T charts.

I hope all of this information helped out... Keep in mind precipitation amounts is QPF, with 500mb aloft being the jet stream, 700mb aloft measuring relative humidity, 850mb aloft measuring 5,000ft aloft temperatures, 925-1000mb measuring surface temperatures. Generally I would look at the GFS and NAM first to get a hang of it along with reading the tutorial links. Use the 850mb and 2m charts for the GFS especially as they are pretty self explanatory and color coded. You will find some maps for international models are confusing and black and white.

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2010-2011 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 1-4in
Monthly Total (November)- Trace
Monthly Total (December)- 0.6in
Monthly Total (January)- 11.65in
Seasonal Total- 12.25in
Winter Weather Advisories- 5
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 1

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 23.7F
Lowest Low Temperature- -1.7F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First accumulating snow - December 10 - 0.50in
Clipper light snow - January 7-8 - 2.25in then another 1in
Double Barrel Low - January 11 - 4.5in of snow
Coastal Low - January 17-17 - 1.8in of snow/sleet
Arctic Front - January 20-21 - 2.1in of snow

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)



This is the most difficult forecast I have ever had to make for the region. The gradient is going to be very sharp across the north and will make for a very high bust potential. This map is a bit bullish for northern areas. We shall see. Enjoy!

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2010-2011 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 4-8in
Monthly Total (November)- Trace
Monthly Total (December)- 0.6in
Monthly Total (January)- 18.15in
Seasonal Total- 18.75in
Winter Weather Advisories- 6
Winter Storm Warnings- 1
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 1

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 23.7F
Lowest Low Temperature- -1.7F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First accumulating snow - December 10 - 0.50in of snow
Clipper light snow - January 7-8 - 2.25in then another 1in of snow
Double Barrel Low - January 11 - 4.5in of snow
Coastal Low - January 17-17 - 1.8in of snow/sleet
Arctic Front - January 20-21 - 2.1in of snow
Upper level/coastal low - January 26 - 5.75in of snow

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Quoting hurigo:
Here's a cut and paste of our NWS Discussion: (Keep in mind the FA is a big chunk of SEVA/NENC, and I imagine not only will the change be "dramatic" as forecaster says, but the difference in the geo area will be too!)

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC LO PRES WL BE TRACKING NE JUST OFFSHR OF VA CAPES ON WED (WHL
INTENSFYING)...WHL STRNG UPR LVL LO PRES MVS E THROUGH TN VLY.
ONE PCPN SHIELD (WRM CONVEYOR BELT) TO PUSH ENE OF FA BY
MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. A SCND AREA OF PCPN IN ASSOCIATION W/ UPR LVL LO
PRES MVG INTO SW VA/NW NC WL BEGIN TO SPRD EWD TWD THE FA. XPCTG A
PD OF INCRSD MLVL UVM LT WED AFTN/EVE AS UPR LVL LO PASSES THROUGH
HEART OF FA. THE AREA W/ PTNTL FOR HIEST UVM WL BE NW HALF OF FA
AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO SPRD INTO THE RGN FM THE NNW. THE UVM
WOULD SERVE TO BRING ADDTNL COOLING (PERHAPS DRAMATICALLY) FM
ALOFT...CHGG PCPN FM RA TO SN AT LEAST ALL THE WAY TO I95 CORRIDOR
IN CNTRL VA...MUCH OF (INTR) NRN NECK AND OVR WRN PORTION OF LWR
MD ERN SHR (PRIMARILY DORCHESTER CTY). THE CHG TO SN COULD BE
ABRUPT IN SOME AREAS...ESP NNW OF RIC (WED AFTN?). THE TRICKY
PARTS OF THE FCST RIGHT NOW ARE - THE TIMING OF TRANSITION TO
SN...HOW LONG WOULD SN FALL...AND DO TEMPS FALL TO FRZG (WED EVE).

FOR NOW...WINTER STORM WATCH POSTED FOR AREAS FM FLUVANNA/LOUISA
CTYS TO DORCHESTER CTY (MD)...OR THE FAR NRN TIER CTYS IN
FA...BEGINNING ERY WED AFTN...LASTING THROUGH (MUCH OF) WED NGT.
AVG ACCUMS INVOF WATCH 2-5 INCHES...IN NARROW AREA NEXT TO THE
WATCH (FM ABT SBY TO RIC/PTB/AVC)...A SLUSHY IN OR TWO COULD ACCUM.

QUICKLY DRYING OUT LT WED NGT AS PCPN ENDS AS SCT SNSH (TO THE
CST). THU WL BE SEASONABLE CHILLY AND PSNY. WK S/W APPROACHES FM
THE WNW THU NGT...AND CRSS THE FA ON FRI. CANNOT RULE OUT SCT
FLURRIES W/ THAT SYS...ESP NRN HALF OF FA.


Wow, I know we already made fun of some of the official weather reports already, but that one really made my head hurt. It's almost unreadable.
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1480. hurigo
Would someone remind me of how to see the storm in its current state. THink it is one of the WU buttons but I can't remember.
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future radar

Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
Quoting Matlack:

She appears to be just a bit on the high maintenance side for me and very loud!


Ironic that you critique her for being loud but end your sentence with an exclamation mark.
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
1477. hurigo
Here's a cut and paste of our NWS Discussion: (Keep in mind the FA is a big chunk of SEVA/NENC, and I imagine not only will the change be "dramatic" as forecaster says, but the difference in the geo area will be too!)

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC LO PRES WL BE TRACKING NE JUST OFFSHR OF VA CAPES ON WED (WHL
INTENSFYING)...WHL STRNG UPR LVL LO PRES MVS E THROUGH TN VLY.
ONE PCPN SHIELD (WRM CONVEYOR BELT) TO PUSH ENE OF FA BY
MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. A SCND AREA OF PCPN IN ASSOCIATION W/ UPR LVL LO
PRES MVG INTO SW VA/NW NC WL BEGIN TO SPRD EWD TWD THE FA. XPCTG A
PD OF INCRSD MLVL UVM LT WED AFTN/EVE AS UPR LVL LO PASSES THROUGH
HEART OF FA. THE AREA W/ PTNTL FOR HIEST UVM WL BE NW HALF OF FA
AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO SPRD INTO THE RGN FM THE NNW. THE UVM
WOULD SERVE TO BRING ADDTNL COOLING (PERHAPS DRAMATICALLY) FM
ALOFT...CHGG PCPN FM RA TO SN AT LEAST ALL THE WAY TO I95 CORRIDOR
IN CNTRL VA...MUCH OF (INTR) NRN NECK AND OVR WRN PORTION OF LWR
MD ERN SHR (PRIMARILY DORCHESTER CTY). THE CHG TO SN COULD BE
ABRUPT IN SOME AREAS...ESP NNW OF RIC (WED AFTN?). THE TRICKY
PARTS OF THE FCST RIGHT NOW ARE - THE TIMING OF TRANSITION TO
SN...HOW LONG WOULD SN FALL...AND DO TEMPS FALL TO FRZG (WED EVE).

FOR NOW...WINTER STORM WATCH POSTED FOR AREAS FM FLUVANNA/LOUISA
CTYS TO DORCHESTER CTY (MD)...OR THE FAR NRN TIER CTYS IN
FA...BEGINNING ERY WED AFTN...LASTING THROUGH (MUCH OF) WED NGT.
AVG ACCUMS INVOF WATCH 2-5 INCHES...IN NARROW AREA NEXT TO THE
WATCH (FM ABT SBY TO RIC/PTB/AVC)...A SLUSHY IN OR TWO COULD ACCUM.

QUICKLY DRYING OUT LT WED NGT AS PCPN ENDS AS SCT SNSH (TO THE
CST). THU WL BE SEASONABLE CHILLY AND PSNY. WK S/W APPROACHES FM
THE WNW THU NGT...AND CRSS THE FA ON FRI. CANNOT RULE OUT SCT
FLURRIES W/ THAT SYS...ESP NRN HALF OF FA.
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Quoting Blizzard92:
Mason803- I thought so too. Looks like it is coming right up into southern Ohio and I noted that they are not even under an advisory. My one concern with the radar tonight is actually too much convection in the gulf perhaps stealing the moisture or causing some differences with our upper level low. Not sure if it will have any affect though.


And. WOW. HRRR. I know it has a bad track record. But WOW!
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1475. Matlack
Quoting Mason803:


Stephanie Abrams is the only reason i watch the weather channel. lol

She appears to be just a bit on the high maintenance side for me and very loud!
Member Since: January 1, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 358
not to get ahead of myself, but that weekend clipper is looking a little more potent as time goes on. Went from almost nothing to up to 0.25 QPF in the last 24 hours.
Member Since: November 17, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 527
if you took the western band and moved it due east, it's already to d.c. that band is still moving north.
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
Hoping State College gets on board here soon.
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Future cast is showing at 1:45am snowing light to moderate in Columbus.......HUH???????
Member Since: January 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 597
the actual low pressure area is still near the Florida Panhandle
Member Since: November 17, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 527
Quoting Mason803:
band sitting up further west?





Would ya look at that. Wait a minute. We're not supposed to get anything.
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
BLIZZ MASON Any thoughts---is this storm going to have a far western set up along with an eastern portion or will phasing start tonight and eliminate what we see towards eastern, KY
Member Since: January 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 597
1467. hurigo
Hello Blizz, et al.
Just got to sit down in front of the computer and read back a bit. Sounds like lots of folks are happy with Blizz's snow map, but I can't find it--or maybe I am not on it. Also, got to see PittsNurse's comment about being thrilled at the no-snow prospect. I am glad we aren't gonna get any SEVA/NENC but I am so happy for those of you who will be -- or are getting it now.
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1466. baba17
FWIW....

The weather discussion on the Crown Weather service site has NO mention of rain for most of Rhode Island and All of Ct.....
Member Since: January 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 23
Quoting Blizzard92:
This will be a very quick snowstorm, but will be a very heavy thump. Some areas will approach 1-3in/hr with THUNDERsnow. Meso guidance suggests impressive UVV rates with elevated instability. Look out for areas in that deformation band.


Thundersnow ! Sweet! Hope Mass gets some of those. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Mason803- I thought so too. Looks like it is coming right up into southern Ohio and I noted that they are not even under an advisory. My one concern with the radar tonight is actually too much convection in the gulf perhaps stealing the moisture or causing some differences with our upper level low. Not sure if it will have any affect though.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15228
1463. baba17
that precip shield is setting up as one wierd looking storm...
Member Since: January 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 23
band sitting up further west?



Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
Thanks for answering my questions Blizz. and thanks for all your hard work. I bet you are in your element when it comes to winter storms
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6338
Quoting cicadaknot:
I don't know how often you look at the RUC blizz but we use quite often. I've been watching since the 18Z runs and it wants to bring snow back well into central PA. I wouldn't be surprised if we get one more bump west on the 0Z runs.
Link


The frames are out of whack, but frames 11-17 show where it wants to take the precip shield.


Thanks for posting that! I did watch the RUC during the December 26th event quickly intently. But it always seemed to be too far northwest with the precipitation shield. Now this scenario is a bit different because most of the precipitation comes associated with the upper level low and not necessarily from the coastal low. Interesting none the less...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15228
1459. baba17

Nice...finally a great winter upon us here in western CT

yeah sitting out here now in Clinton for the last 25 years. Normally this part of CT is the NO SNOW section...always rain, always...Not this year though, We have more snow on the ground here than we do in our winter place in Killington Vt. Now that's NEVER happened b4.
Member Since: January 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 23
Quoting TheF1Man:


Yep i'm from Trumbull. Wow that's amazing to get someone from the same town, glad to have you here ironpoe.


Baba, I think my dad graduated around 80' SMALL WORLD


Blizz the quickness of the storm is limiting totals then?

Yes, definitely limiting the maximum totals. But someone is going to see 3-4in/hr rates for a short time right along the core of the meso banding.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15228
I don't know how often you look at the RUC blizz but we use quite often. I've been watching since the 18Z runs and it wants to bring snow back well into central PA. I wouldn't be surprised if we get one more bump west on the 0Z runs.
Link


The frames are out of whack, but frames 11-17 show where it wants to take the precip shield.

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Quoting TheRasberryPatch:


welcome...where are you located?



is the snow turning blue yet? hahahaha


I would call it ivory with a dusting of mocha and a deep rich chocolate brown. Now on the South Side, it is for sure blue.
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
PengSnow- I always notice storms start and end faster than expected; just something about it.

TheRasberryPatch- Models are clearly showing this storm with the class comma shape. A high area of upper vertical velocities coinciding with excellent snow growth will set up a mesoscale band in the cold sector of the storm. Here is a great display of the location of the band looking at 700mb aloft...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15228
Quoting Blizzard92:
This will be a very quick snowstorm, but will be a very heavy thump. Some areas will approach 1-3in/hr with THUNDERsnow. Meso guidance suggests impressive UVV rates with elevated instability. Look out for areas in that deformation band.
Quoting Blizzard92:
This will be a very quick snowstorm, but will be a very heavy thump. Some areas will approach 1-3in/hr with THUNDERsnow. Meso guidance suggests impressive UVV rates with elevated instability. Look out for areas in that deformation band.


Thunder snow?? I think I just piddled a liddled.
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 249
Quoting Ironpoe:



Thanks..
I believe the same town as F1Man if I'm not mistaken...Trumbull, CT.


Yep i'm from Trumbull. Wow that's amazing to get someone from the same town, glad to have you here ironpoe.


Baba, I think my dad graduated around 80' SMALL WORLD


Blizz the quickness of the storm is limiting totals then?
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 772

deformation band

Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
1451. Ironpoe
1:19 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
Quoting baba17:

ah yes Trumbull Ct. Graduated from Trumbull High Class of 75


Nice...finally a great winter upon us here in western CT.

Blizz, outstanding work here and belated congrats with your aceptance!
Member Since: January 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 31
1450. TheRasberryPatch
1:19 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:
This will be a very quick snowstorm, but will be a very heavy thump. Some areas will approach 1-3in/hr with THUNDERsnow. Meso guidance suggests impressive UVV rates with elevated instability. Look out for areas in that deformation band.


which is us....what is a deformation band when it comes to weather and how do you know there will be one with this storm? what factors determine a deformation band?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6338
1449. bwi
1:18 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
DC temp down to 37 -- BWI airport is 30. Winds turning back to northerly. I think there's a remote possibility that we get all snow tomorrow -- no rain mixing.
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1448. PengSnow
1:17 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
will the storm move west if you check the future radar cast it has it snowing heavy in Cincy at 1am??? Blizz any thoughts to this or am I missing something
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1447. baba17
1:16 AM GMT on January 26, 2011

ah yes Trumbull Ct. Graduated from Trumbull High Class of 75
Member Since: January 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 23
1446. Zachary Labe
1:15 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
This will be a very quick snowstorm, but will be a very heavy thump. Some areas will approach 1-3in/hr with THUNDERsnow. Meso guidance suggests impressive UVV rates with elevated instability. Look out for areas in that deformation band.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15228
1445. Mason803
1:13 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
one aspect of the storm that hasn't been talked about much is the possible tree and powerline damage caused by the heavy wet snow. people who recieve 6+" of this wet snow should be on guard for possible power outages.
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
1444. Zachary Labe
1:12 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
Blizz - what ratios do you expect? and is there any chance the storm stalls off the coast?

10/11:1 for our area with 9/10:1 for areas to our south and east. It will be a very wet snow.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15228
1443. PhillySnow
1:11 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
P451 where are you? If you are lurking, please declare yourself and join the fun! You are missed by many.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1602
1442. HeavySnow
1:11 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
Nice map Blizz except you did indeed miss the 14-24+ bullseye just west of DC. :p
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 3002
1441. Ironpoe
1:10 AM GMT on January 26, 2011


Quoting TheRasberryPatch:


welcome...where are you located?



is the snow turning blue yet? hahahaha

Thanks..
I believe the same town as F1Man if I'm not mistaken...Trumbull, CT.
Member Since: January 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 31
1440. TheRasberryPatch
1:10 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
Blizz - what ratios do you expect? and is there any chance the storm stalls off the coast?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6338
1439. ConnecticutWXGuy
1:10 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
i would expect that most of the watches will become warnings after the next model package comes out. Some of the watches in southern/central New Jersey probably get downgraded to WWA due to rain at the start.
Member Since: November 17, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 527
1438. PhillySnow
1:08 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
Thanks for the new snow map, Blizz. Looks like most of us get at least some snow, and many will get a lot! Yay!
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1602
1437. Hoynieva
1:08 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
Darn...I was late.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1891
1436. jrzyshore
1:07 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
I heard on the way to work tonight(I think)that this could be "stick to the side of your house like icing kinda snow"....
Member Since: March 1, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 239
1435. Hoynieva
1:07 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
I'll venture a guess and say that 7-12 swath breaks up like that because of the warm air along the coast of NJ, LI and the coast of CT resulting in more mix to start, whereas N and W of there they get all snow.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1891
1434. SilverShipsofAndilar
1:07 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
Blizz, I would like to humbly and respectfully suggest and request a Harrisburg dot on the map for reference's sake.
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
1433. Zachary Labe
1:06 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
Quoting Mason803:
blizzard92,

map looks good except you missed the 14"+ bullseye over south mountain.

hahahaaha

Lol, I am pleased with it too. I am counting on that deformation band like the NAM/ECMWF shows for here in Harrisburg. Ugh, it will be close!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15228
1432. TheRasberryPatch
1:06 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
Quoting Ironpoe:
Good evening, all. I've been following this blog community since last year! I check it everyday for updates and have been tremendously impressed with the accuracy of what goes on in here. I noticed the number of posts and simply had to join in order to get these numbers to go UP like tomorrow's storm totals!


welcome...where are you located?

Quoting pittsburghnurse:
Overjoyed at the prospect of getting... zero. We've had at least a trace of snow 19 out of the last 20 days with a well established snow pack which is going through the freeze/thaw cycle.

Enjoy you happy plowers. May your snow be piled high and your shovels at the ready.


is the snow turning blue yet? hahahaha
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6338
1431. Mason803
1:05 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
blizzard92,

map looks good except you missed the 14"+ bullseye over south mountain.

hahahaaha
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139

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