Potential Major Storm for Eastern US for January 26-27...

By: Zachary Labe , 8:16 PM GMT on January 21, 2011

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Current wavelengths are supporting a large synoptic storm east of the Mississippi River Valley during the January 26th to the 27th with widespread moisture from the Southeaast to New England. This setup is corresponded with highly favorable teleconnections. The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) remains negative but has shifted the higher heights more east-based. This causes less blocking upstream. Blocking is typically associated with suppression and tracks of coastal lows well over 100mi off the coast. Also blocking allows for a slower movement of low pressures ushering in cold air to the right of the low in the large cold sector of the storm. When the blocking is allowed to relaxed or becomes displaced as in this instance, it allows cyclogenesis to often occur a bit farther to the west offering warmer air with a southeasterly flow off the Atlantic. This upcoming coastal threat will favor the later with dampened upstream blocking. Also the MJO (Madden-Jullian Oscillation) is entering phases 7-8. The MJO is a measure of the positioning of the monsoonal rains across the Indian Oceans. Since all global weather patterns are interconnected, differing wavelengths of pressure in the Indian Ocean will in time affect areas downstream in the jet stream across North America. Here is the current composite 500mb mean charts for an MJO phase 7 during January from a meteorological study by Allan Huffman...

Link
As noted above, increasing ridging across the western United States with a deep trough over the east coast often occurs. This corresponds to the current teleconnective pattern over North America with a positive PNA (Pacific/North American Pattern) which favors high pressure over the western United States coupled with upper level ridging.

The teleconnections are certainly signaling the classic jet stream setup for eastern cyclonegesis. But several 'issues' will likely prevent a major east coast snowstorm for areas in the major metropolitan region of the United States. Paul Kocin and Louis Uccellini's monograph of Northeast snowstorms signals the classic setup for widespread historical snowfalls to be accompanied by an arctic high pressure to the north of the storm. Typically we would root for a large anticyclone to the north or north-northeast of New England across southern Canada. This helps usher in cold air funneling in the western periphery of the low pressure. Also this helps prevent the low pressure from running too far inland.

The current synoptic setup shows the high pressure to the north of the low quickly scooting to the northeast and eventually too far east to save many from the expected rainfall. The 1/21/11 12utc ECMWF shows the banana high displaced to the east in an unfavorable location.

Kocin/Uccellini's near miss historic east coast snowstorm often featured a high pressure in a similar displaced location. Typically this would then favor inland snows with a mix or rain across eastern areas. While a severe arctic air mass will be in place along with a fresh snow pack over the Northeast, oftern these air masses can disperse quicker than one would assume. Current GGEM/UKMET/ECMWF guidance supports the upper level trough becoming negatively tilted towards the easteern Mississippi Valley. With these higher amplitude trough, the banana high is quick to depart and allows the cyclogenesis to occur farther along the coast. The 1/21/11 12utc GFS shows this evolution a tad differently, but does appear to be an eastern outlier. The 12utc GEFS mean shows a farther west solution, which often argues that the operational model is too far east. Most of my analogs support the heaviest snows well northwest of I-95 as warmer invades from the east. Despite several global models showing the low becoming vertically stacked allowing H85s to crash, there will likely be a southeast maritime flow across eastern areas.

The track of the H5 low tracks across Virginia, which is a bit too far north for a favorable snowstorm for most areas south of Washington DC for certain. Given the departing arctic air mass I would expect areas that receive mainly rainfall still to receive snow accumulations on the front end of the storm. The ECMWF mentioned earlier supports a quick 4-8in along most of I-95 before rainfall.

At this point, those farther east will be hoping to look for the 500mb low to track farther south, the banana high to become more situated north and not northeast, and the exact placement of the negatively titled trough.

While the threat is several days away, current climatology and guidance supports a very high threat of a large storm system over the eastern United States in this time frame. Whether it is rain or snow, there appears to be a large amount of moisture involved with ECMWF QPF up to 4in in northern Delaware and southeastern Pennsylvania. I know many are critical of predictions of storms well in advance, but meteorology is about understanding the synoptic setup that leads to the development of these storms. Watching the evolution of this situation will be very interesting and I am becoming increasingly enthused for those well inland. Even along the coast heavy rain and high winds are possible with a western storm track so threats will be high with any storm scenario. Stay tuned for updates throughout the weekend. For now if I had to make a forecast, this would be the precipitation scenario map.

The exact placements of the trough/shortwaves/high pressures will change, but I have not seen such consistency in the computer models for a large event in a very long time. This is also backed up by a favorable wavelength pattern as mentioned earlier in the blog. I think there is a higher possibility of this tracking farther west and inland than it tracking east. The odds of all snow along I-95 to the coast remain low given the departing high pressure. Another concern is the poor modeling this winter and the trend for storms to phase later than expected. Something to keep reminded of... Stay tuned!

Short Computer Model Introduction
This is a pretty decent quick intro on computer model forecasts along with beneficial links. Computer models use the complex calculus algorithms to print out the forecasts. Despite our complaning with the models, without them much of us would be lost except in the short time. Some of the earlier computer models consisted of the ETA, NGM, and AVN, which forecasted generally less than 84hrs. They were highly inaccurate, but provided a basis. The ETA was actually the computer model that helped meteorologists predicted the "storm of the century" in March of 1993 so well in advance. But now more than ever we have a myriad of computer models available to the general public with many mesoscale models only available to NOAA. Lets start with the general. All current computer models are based off on the Zulu time. Zulu time is also known as UTC or Greenwich time . Generally to forecast timing of storms my special BUFKIT data transitions UTC time to EST time, which is helpful. But BUFKIT is a special download, which I won't get into, but the transition is helpful as for some reason I never am able to understand time zones too well, hahaha. Anyways let me start with each computer model...

-GFS (Mentioned most of all as it is a global model (Global Forecasting System))
~Available in 0z (initiates at 10:30pm), 6z (initiates at 4:30am), 12z (10:30am), 18z (4:30pm)
~Forecasts out to 384hrs
~Typical biases
Cold bias on long range on 18z run
6z and 18z slightly unreliable
Northwest trend on lows within 84hrs of event

-ECMWF (This is another global model run by an international organization (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts))
~Available in 0z (initiates at 1:30am), 12z (initiates at 1:30pm)
~Forecasts out to 240hrs
~Typical biases
Overphases lows in 168hr range
Holds too much energy in southwest
Known as extremely accurate within 140hrs

-NAM (Mesoscale short range model)
~Available in 0z (Initiates at 9:30pm), 6z (Initiates at 3:30am), 12z (initiates at 9:30am), 18z (Initiates at 3:30pm)
~Forecasts out to 84hrs
~Typical biases
Highly inaccurate towards the 84hrs
Handles coastal storms very well and southwest overrunning events
Tendency for way too much QPF

Those three above are the most common models for a beginner in computer models, but there are many more. All of the global models consistent of ensemble models also, such as the GFS has a myriad of ensemble (small models) that create a mean solution known as GEFS. They typically are too cold and southeast with low pressures, but some reason the NWS seems to enjoy using them. There are also more global models than the GFS and ECMWF... The UKMET is run by an internation organization and forecasts out to 144hrs. This model typically comes out an hr before the ECMWF and usually is pretty similar to the ECMWF. The ECMWF may also be known as the EURO by the way. There is also a Canadian model known as the GGEM/CMC, which again contains ensemble models. All of the internation models only run 0z and 12z runs. This is probably for the best as all models only receive new upper air data in 0z and 12z runs, so this is why the American model runs of the 6z and 18z are usually worthless. There is also a high resolution Canadian model known as the RGEM, which is very similar to the American NAM. High resolution (mesoscale models) are important as they usually are able to pick up on fine details such as frontogenesis, advection, adebiatic cooling, convection, etc. Some of this high resolution models include the WRF, HIRES NMM, RUC, ARW. They all are usually very accurate, but the WRF and HIRES NMM usually have wet bias.

As mentioned above there are ensemble models which come up with a mean solution instead of using one computer model's algorithms like the global models use. These ensemble mean solution are known as the MREF and SREF with MREF being in the medium range and SREF in the short range. SREF is usually pretty accurate and forecasts within 87hrs of an event. There are also other computer models used for hurricane forecasting, but I will not get into them. For instance one is the GFDL, which you may have heard of. I find I use mainly the GFS, NAM, and WRF/NMM in the summer, but use all of the models in the winter.

A few models to avoid...
JMA
KMA
CAMPASS
DGEX

Here is a list of links for explanations on how to interperate the models...

-PennState E Wall, which runs all of the models
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html

-PennState E Wall tutorial on computer models (Check it out)
http://www.personal.psu.edu/adb241/eWallTutorial/ Main.htm

-Severe Weather parameters used on models, explanation
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/n=severe_weather_chec klist_paper

-Forecasting winter weather
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/soo/docu/precip_type. php

-NCEP; used to find American Computer models
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

-Severe Weather Models
http://www.wxcaster.com//conus_0012_us_models.htm

-Winter Weather Models
http://www.wxcaster.com/conus_snowfall.htm

-Model Soundings
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?te xt=KMDT#

The last link is listed above as model soundings which takes all of the data to print out all sorts of information including precipitation type along with dynamics such as Omega. This is very complex and takes some time getting used to. Also you may see this data instead of in charts, it is sometimes used in SKEWT T charts.

I hope all of this information helped out... Keep in mind precipitation amounts is QPF, with 500mb aloft being the jet stream, 700mb aloft measuring relative humidity, 850mb aloft measuring 5,000ft aloft temperatures, 925-1000mb measuring surface temperatures. Generally I would look at the GFS and NAM first to get a hang of it along with reading the tutorial links. Use the 850mb and 2m charts for the GFS especially as they are pretty self explanatory and color coded. You will find some maps for international models are confusing and black and white.

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2010-2011 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 1-4in
Monthly Total (November)- Trace
Monthly Total (December)- 0.6in
Monthly Total (January)- 11.65in
Seasonal Total- 12.25in
Winter Weather Advisories- 5
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 1

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 23.7F
Lowest Low Temperature- -1.7F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First accumulating snow - December 10 - 0.50in
Clipper light snow - January 7-8 - 2.25in then another 1in
Double Barrel Low - January 11 - 4.5in of snow
Coastal Low - January 17-17 - 1.8in of snow/sleet
Arctic Front - January 20-21 - 2.1in of snow

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)



This is the most difficult forecast I have ever had to make for the region. The gradient is going to be very sharp across the north and will make for a very high bust potential. This map is a bit bullish for northern areas. We shall see. Enjoy!

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2010-2011 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 4-8in
Monthly Total (November)- Trace
Monthly Total (December)- 0.6in
Monthly Total (January)- 18.15in
Seasonal Total- 18.75in
Winter Weather Advisories- 6
Winter Storm Warnings- 1
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 1

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 23.7F
Lowest Low Temperature- -1.7F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First accumulating snow - December 10 - 0.50in of snow
Clipper light snow - January 7-8 - 2.25in then another 1in of snow
Double Barrel Low - January 11 - 4.5in of snow
Coastal Low - January 17-17 - 1.8in of snow/sleet
Arctic Front - January 20-21 - 2.1in of snow
Upper level/coastal low - January 26 - 5.75in of snow

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2881. Matlack
11:09 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:


it was the only way to get back into this blog. i wonder if anyone else knows how to get back in?


Keep the link in your favorites or go to Blizz's new blog and enter 180 in over the 181 in the address bar.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Blizzard92/comment.html?entrynum=180#yourcomment

His new blog is 181. Also you need to ignore crowe1 to see the whole blog as there is an entry that is causing errors.
Member Since: January 1, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 358
2880. TheRasberryPatch
10:33 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
hey MLG once blizz posts a new blog then crowe will be off the list


it was the only way to get back into this blog. i wonder if anyone else knows how to get back in?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
2879. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:30 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
hey MLG once blizz posts a new blog then crowe will be off the list
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
2878. bwi
10:22 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
HPC 5-day QPF.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
2877. MarylandGirl
9:24 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
Thanks to Keeper I can see the blog again. Sorry crowe1, you are on the ignore list for now. Just checked our forcast andit looks like starting as snow, then ice and ending as alot of rain......I hope it is wrong. Looking forwrd to Blizz' take on the storm. Matt Noyes, NE weather, said things are coming together better than any storm so far and it could be a prolonged storm with multiple waves..
Member Since: September 10, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 486
2876. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9:14 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
2875. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9:13 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
2874. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9:13 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
2873. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9:12 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
2872. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
8:26 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
in order to fix blizzs blog i had to put crowe1 on ignore then everything is working
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
2871. Beachllama
6:23 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
Switching back and forth between flurries and light snow in Germantown, MD, temp is 30.1 F.
Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 138
2870. wxgeek723
6:23 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
Quoting TrentonThunder:
Man, if we can get the entire low track of the 12Z GFS to track 250 miles southeast of what it shows, just about all of us on this blog would be talking over 18" next week. Plenty for everyone.


Well that would certainly put Philly at 4th or 3rd for snow this year, truly wild. This season's already only a few inches away from overtaking 2002-2003. Hopefully it won't try to challenge 2009-2010.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3468
2869. snowinvermont
6:22 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
Quoting crowe1:
This would be nice.Link


I like that model! Time for northern New England to get a decent snowfall for a change. Lots of 3-4" over the past few weeks but a 2 footer is what we want now.
Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 83
2867. Beachllama
6:20 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
Quoting TrentonThunder:


I haven't lost power once in any of these storms since last December. Power goes down very rarely around here.


You obviously don't have Pepco!
Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 138
2866. crowe1
6:19 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
This would be nice.Link
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 15 Comments: 921
2865. Hoynieva
6:16 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
That snow over PA looks a lot better than yesterday's radar. We might even get an inch out of it, as it's holding together rather well.

Nvrmnd. I looked at radar for first time in an hour and it's doing its usual thing. Clippers suck for us near the coast.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
2864. jrzyshore
6:16 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
Quoting crowe1:
jrzshore,

That's a great quote! I'm just not a football fan.
It's always "just a snowstorm", there's always going to be another ULTIMATE STORM if we wait long enough:)
Well, You'll never work for the Weather Channel !!!!
Member Since: March 1, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 210
2863. jrzyshore
6:10 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
TT 2 questions I asked Blizz the other day that maybe you can answer for me?
1)Will the data from the previous storm immediately be used in future modeling?
2) What caused that storm to explode like it did? Was it simply a timing issue missed by the models?
Member Since: March 1, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 210
2862. crowe1
6:10 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
jrzshore,

That's a great quote! I'm just not a football fan.
It's always "just a snowstorm", there's always going to be another ULTIMATE STORM if we wait long enough:)
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 15 Comments: 921
2861. breald
6:02 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
Quoting bwi:


I think Blizz's plan is a new blog soon on verification of the last storm, and then a blog on Monday on the next.

It looks to me like our area of Maryland could get a snow to freezing rain to rain storm, with GFS taking the main low north and west of us. HPC has a low in Kentucky. I'm a little worried about temps, with the prospect of cold air damming and ice in our area. We have a lot of snowpack to help keep surface temps down, and the models are saying that the arctic airmass pushing this next storm will be quite cold as it spreads over north of us. Look at the -30c line on GFS -- all the way down into PA. Granted that's a week away, so the model may be off base. But still, with this much cold air around, if some of that cold air is in place ahead of the storm anything could happen...



Thanks bwi. I will wait for a blog update.
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
2860. jrzyshore
5:58 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
Quoting TrentonThunder:
Man, if we can get the entire low track of the 12Z GFS to track 250 miles southeast of what it shows, just about all of us on this blog would be talking over 18" next week. Plenty for everyone.
250 miles? That's a big wish, but I'm startin' now.
P451 we need your help, turn on your ground zero machine again , will ya ?
Member Since: March 1, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 210
2859. TrentonThunder
5:49 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
Man, if we can get the entire low track of the 12Z GFS to track 250 miles southeast of what it shows, just about all of us on this blog would be talking over 18" next week. Plenty for everyone.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
2858. shipweather
5:47 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
Oh and any update on next week's storm?
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
2857. shipweather
5:44 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
I'm up at Penn State right now and it's snowing like CRAZY here. Very hard rates. Not as hard right now as it was, but still pretty hard. Haven't been outside, but it could be close to 3" since maybe 9 am.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
2856. TrentonThunder
5:36 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
nm
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
2855. jrzyshore
5:26 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
Quoting crowe1:
TRP/PittNurse:
Umm, it's just a game...
"Just a Game?"....You probably think "It's Just a Snowstorm too.".... IT IS THE ULTIMATE GAME !!!!.........

Duane Thomas ,a running back for the Cowboys back in the 70's,was asked,"How does it feel to play in the Ultimate Game?"..He replied;"If it's the Ultimate Game how come they play it every year?"

Blizz the Wizz must be workin' in his lab..let's see what he cooks up for us this time.
Member Since: March 1, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 210
2854. bwi
5:21 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
Quoting breald:
Any early thoughts on the storm next week?


I think Blizz's plan is a new blog soon on verification of the last storm, and then a blog on Monday on the next.

It looks to me like our area of Maryland could get a snow to freezing rain to rain storm, with GFS taking the main low north and west of us. HPC has a low in Kentucky. I'm a little worried about temps, with the prospect of cold air damming and ice in our area. We have a lot of snowpack to help keep surface temps down, and the models are saying that the arctic airmass pushing this next storm will be quite cold as it spreads over north of us. Look at the -30c line on GFS -- all the way down into PA. Granted that's a week away, so the model may be off base. But still, with this much cold air around, if some of that cold air is in place ahead of the storm anything could happen...
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
2853. breald
4:48 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
Any early thoughts on the storm next week?
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
2852. TheRasberryPatch
4:30 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
Interesting watching the large snowflakes fall @ 28F and it melts on contact.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
2851. PengSnow
4:08 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
Learned this from a friend in Pittsburgh---this is big in Pittsburgh"Here we go, Steelers, Here we GO, Pittsburgh going to win the Super Bowl!!! Here We Go..............!
Member Since: January 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 417
2850. Hoynieva
4:02 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
Quoting originalLT:
Great igloo pics. Hoy, wait till Heavy see's them....Envy city!!!


Haha. Well, he's welcome to come stay in it. An all inclusive one night stay in a Brooklyn igloo, 6 stories above ground. No pets allowed. I don't want this thing turning yellow.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
2849. crowe1
4:00 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
TRP/PittNurse:
Umm, it's just a game...
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 15 Comments: 921
2848. TheRasberryPatch
3:54 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
Quoting pittsburghnurse:


Ah geeze not this again. TRP, isn't there a winter golf course somewhere where you can get your hatred of the STEELERS out of your system, wack some balls, shovel some snow?


I don't hate the stealers. I actually used to be a stealer fan before Baltimore got a team back. I just don't care for how the refs find ways to help them win games. you being a stealer fan makes you somewhat blind to the calls. when the calls go against you someday, i won't be holding my breath though, you might understand. again, I am not holding my breath. I know one thing, I will be throwing the biggest party when it does occur. I will turn a blind eye, just like you
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
2847. pittsburghnurse
3:43 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:


don't count on it...the refs have a way of throwing flags in favor of the stealers


Ah geeze not this again. TRP, isn't there a winter golf course somewhere where you can get your hatred of the STEELERS out of your system, wack some balls, shovel some snow?
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
2846. originalLT
3:32 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
Great igloo pics. Hoy, wait till Heavy see's them....Envy city!!!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7416
2845. TheRasberryPatch
3:30 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Next weekend's cold, blustery, dark winter forecast in Dallas: PIT losing to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in the Superbowl

:)


don't count on it...the refs have a way of throwing flags in favor of the stealers
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
2844. pittsburghnurse
3:24 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Next weekend's cold, blustery, dark winter forecast in Dallas: PIT losing to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in the Superbowl

:)


Nicely matched game. No trash talk here. Could go either way. But my money is on the Steelers.
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
2842. TrentonThunder
3:11 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
Quoting Beachllama:


I think it may be time, some friends of mine are considering it after they lost power again this week Wed-Fri. I wish it was an option for me, but I live in a condo. It was 42F in my house by the time my power came back on last Feb (1st storm). Brrrrrr!


I haven't lost power once in any of these storms since last December. Power goes down very rarely around here.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
2841. TrentonThunder
3:08 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
Quoting pittsburghnurse:
Good morning. More nickel dime snow falling at a moderate rate for the moment. It is feeling like a Groundhog Day. Every day the same thing. I saw a pic on Weather Underground of daffodils breaking ground in South Carolina. Yes, I am getting winter weary.

So back again to the KPIT area, any ideas what this next storm holds? Is it true we may be in the rain/snow line? There is talk of serious icing. I just purchased my first home as a single woman and I'm really concerned about how bad it could get.



No winter weariness until March 1st!

Ooooh, single with no shoveling help gets rough. Luckily you've seen mostly light accumulations, albeit several of them.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
2840. TrentonThunder
3:05 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
Awesome pictures everyone
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
2839. Beachllama
3:05 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
Quoting MoCoMd:


Hmm, wonder if it's time to finally break down and buy a generator.


I think it may be time, some friends of mine are considering it after they lost power again this week Wed-Fri. I wish it was an option for me, but I live in a condo. It was 42F in my house by the time my power came back on last Feb (1st storm). Brrrrrr!
Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 138
2838. TrentonThunder
3:01 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
Quoting Hoynieva:
Looks like Maine, especially southern ME, would be in for some of the system, sunnysmum. After going east off the coast near LI it turns a more NE direction.

I also see on the 06Z gfs that there's a system exactly a week later with potential and an even bigger one 4 days after that. This winter is relentless. I'd be surprised if we don't break the all time snowfall record here in NYC.

Thanks for the pics, matlack. 'Tis a lot of snow.


That has also crossed my mind for the I-95 Corridor from Delaware through Mass...
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
2837. TrentonThunder
2:57 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
Quoting NYBizBee:
The Blizzard of 1888 -- Northeastern United States
This snowstorm was so massive it became a historical event. In terms of storm severity factors, this one had it all: enormous amounts of snow, frigid temperatures, howling winds whipping up monstrous snow drifts -- and a widespread area of effect that covered the entire northeastern United States from New England to the Chesapeake Bay, including major metropolitan areas like New York City [source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration]. More than 400 people died during the storm, including more than 100 who were lost at sea.

The storm struck in early March and started out as a serious rain storm. From Sunday night to Monday morning, the temperature plummeted and the rain turned to snow. In the end, New York City received 22 inches (56 centimeters) of snow, shutting the city down and causing floods when the snow melted. Other places received much more: 58 inches (1.5 meters) of snow in Saratoga Springs, N.Y., and 45 inches (1.14 m) in New Haven, Conn. Snow drifts as high as 50 or 60 feet (15.2 to 18.3 m) were reported on Long Island, and wind gusts were reported as fast as 80 mph .

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WOW could this even be capable?


That's a well known Nor'easter, a true all out Blizzard. Temperatures dropped to the single digits in NYC during the most intense part of the storm, below zero northwest. Just imagine back then that people had very low warning about it. So many people stuck out on trains, horse & buggy etc... Thousands of livestock perished. That storm caused New York City to move its telegraph & telephone lines underground. Communication was lost for a very extended period. It was partially responsible for the first subway system which opened in Boston a couple years later. Some great photos out there for this storm called the "Great White Hurricane"

The system stalled and looped for a day between Long Island and Cape Cod.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
2836. pittsburghnurse
2:56 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
Good morning. More nickel dime snow falling at a moderate rate for the moment. It is feeling like a Groundhog Day. Every day the same thing. I saw a pic on Weather Underground of daffodils breaking ground in South Carolina. Yes, I am getting winter weary.

So back again to the KPIT area, any ideas what this next storm holds? Is it true we may be in the rain/snow line? There is talk of serious icing. I just purchased my first home as a single woman and I'm really concerned about how bad it could get.

Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
2835. TrentonThunder
2:45 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
Quoting Matlack:

Did you hear about the Staples store in Manahawkin that had a roof collapse a week or so ago? They had solar panels on it. I expect their will be new building codes here after this winter. The panels were installed at a high angle and I'm guessing they had drifting on the roof that normally would not have happened if they were flat. Add in 1" of rain and the weight must have been too much.


No, didn't hear that. If anyone outside of this area of New Jersey doesn't know, there are solar panels now on every other corner which they are using as an experiment for alternative energy. They're about 3 feet wide by 2 feet high mounted at an angle about 15 feet up on telephone poles. Some of them are a little scary looking with heavy snow and ice hanging over about to dump on passing traffic.

The roof that collapsed up the street here was a flat roof. No injuries. A popular Pizza restaraunt shares the same roof. Thankfully that part didn't collapse because it happened right at dinner time with lots of people in there.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
2834. TrentonThunder
2:39 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
Quoting NYBizBee:


TT- Thats such a problem most people dont even think of. Fews years ago my dad and I were sitting in our hunting cabin in sullivan county ny and the roof started making creaking sounds. Very scary. We got everything off before a bad situation. But could only imagine.


Yeah, people don't think of that around here. I have relatives in Goshen New Hampshire and their roofs are designed so that when the snow reaches a certain weight it just slides right off. Look out if you're walking through the door at that moment!
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
2833. TrentonThunder
2:37 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
Quoting wxgeek723:


TT, why does Mount Holly have us under a chance of rain Wednesday? Do they gain some kind of sadistic pleasure out of crushing our hopes for snow?


I think everyone's covering every type of possibility right now. Like the previous storm where model guidance underdid it, let's hope we trend towards colder solutions and higher precipitation in this area.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
2832. TrentonThunder
2:33 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
Got a coating yesterday. Radar looks better than yesterday. If it stays cold enough, I think I might squeeze an inch out today. @ 9:30am, Cloudy, 29.7F.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
2831. breald
2:26 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
Gee Blizz, when you update your blog all you have to do is change the date in the header.

I don't know about anyone else, but I call uncle!!!
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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