Ice and snow to threaten the Northeast January 17-19...

By: Zachary Labe , 1:10 AM GMT on January 17, 2011

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Sunday night will feature the approach of a high pressure system located north across New York State. Stable air will eventually bring an end to the significant lake effect snow squall near Oswego County on eastward with reports of over 12in of snow. With some radiational cooling, low temperatures will drop to the lowest of the season for many areas from Maryland to Maine. The coldest temperatures will be associated near the heart of the high pressure over upstate New York with -20F lows are possible towards Saranac Lake.

The 18z GFS 2m charts even show lows around -14F for upstate New York with negative teens as far south as northern Pennsylvania. Up towards northern New England a mid level cirrus deck and a slight northwest wind will prevent ideal radiational cooling. For southern areas towards southern Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware lows will be in the teens in the urban areas to single digits over the rural regions. High level cirrus clouds will begin to stream northeast from the southwest ahead of an approaching storm system.

A deep -3SD trough over the northern Plains will be dropping south out of Canada with associated 1020mb high pressure. This deep trough is digging rapidly across the central United States with associated shortwave developing along the eastern periphery of the trough. This primary low will track northwest into Minnesota and will gradually shear apart as a second low redevelops south across northern Florida. Another double barrel low storm system will plague the east coast. Increasing PWATs will rise in the Middle Atlantic ahead of the low pressure developing off the North Carolina.

A southerly flow aloft will help to migrate the H85 0C line northward along with a sharp mid level above freezing deck. The high pressure over New York State will lift quickly to the northeast positioning itself just east of Nova Scotia. Warm air advection will aid in some light snow developing across northern Virginia moving northeast. The anomalous southerly flow will quickly change the light snow in Virginia and Maryland over to sleet and then freezing rain as the troposphere warms from top to bottom. By late Monday night the light snow will push north of the Mason-Dixon line. Some UVV and frontogenic support will cause a period of moderate snow for those along and north of the Pennsylvania turnpike early Tuesday morning with a quick burst of 1-2in of snow. Some locations towards the southern Poconos may even see a quick 3in of snow by the Tuesday morning commute. The H85 0C thermal will quickly progress northeast over into northern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey. Again the warm air advection snow will give most areas a quick 1-3in of snow before the changeover to sleet and freezing rain. Current GFS SKEWT T charts indicate surface temperatures to remain below freezing especially for areas just northwest of I-95 from northern Maryland on northward.

The SKEWT T chart above is for KMDT during the height of the precipitation. Keep in mind the bold white line on the right is the temperature in Celsius. The surface around 1000mb is below freezing with rising temperatures with increasing altitude.

Cold air is denser than warm air and will likely hang on aloft a big tougher across New England. Current GFS/NAM prognostics indicate a burst of moderate to heavy snow near Albany and drawing a line eastward. Along the line and northward, a quick 2-6in of snow will occur before a changeover as temperatures warm aloft through New England. Current model surface maps indicate most of the heavier QPF over eastern areas especially in coastal regions of New Jersey up through southern New England where 1in QPF is possible. Model guidance supports a east-northeast wind at the surface. This often will lead me to believe that the cold air persists for inland areas longer than expected and couple that with the fact of a widespread snow park from northern Maryland on northward. I do not buy the quickly rising 2m 0C line advertised on the ECMWF and NAM. I think a major of the precipitation will be freezing rain along a line from Harrisburg to Allentown to Stroudburg to White Plains to Tolland to Worcestor. While QPF will be lighter in these areas, even .1-.2in of freezing rain can cause problems. With ground temperatures well below freezing from the antecedent cold air, non-treated surfaces will continue to freeze over even as boundary layer temperatures rise to 33-35F. For coastal areas and along I-95, most of the precipitation will be rain after a quick 1in of snow/sleet especially north of Philadelphia. The heaviest QPF will be over this region with rapidly decling amounts as one heads west. SREF means indicate only .1-.25in for many areas west of I-81. Eventually by Tuesday evening the surface low, 996mb, will move northward over Rhode Island and Massachusetts allowing surface temperatures to rise above freezing outside the higher elevations in the Berkshires where ice could be significant.

The highest risk of freezing rain is across northwest Connecticut, central Massachusetts. Also western Massachusetts up through New Hampshire, Vermont, and Maine will be at the highest threat for over 4in of wet snow.

A weak shortwave will rotate through as the cold front passes and the H85 0C line progresses west. The high resolution NAM is showing a light area of .1-.2in of QPF associated with this wave progressing through parts of the northern Middle Atlantic in Pennsylania. At the current time, it looks like it will be light rain especially for eastern areas, but I cannot rule out a 1-3in snow for some areas in western and central Pennsylvania with this shortwave.

Overall it appears a moderate accumulation (3-7in) is likely for the higher elevations of northern New England with moderate (.1-.25in) of freezing rain along the foothills of the Appalachians from Harrisburg on northeast up through central Massachusetts. The heavier QPF will be east towards the metropolitan region where 1in of rain is possible from Washington DC up through New York City. My map below gives a rough estimate on totals for this event. Given the complexity of the precipitation types, it is difficult to make a generalized map. Keep in mind snow totals will likely be a bit higher than I show on the map for northern New England. Also western Pennsylvania and western Maryland will likely see 1-3in of snow with the shortwave that will move through Wednesday along with some lake effect snow.


The current operational ECMWF shows a significant coastal cyclone affecting the region towards next weekend. The model though has little support from other guidance including the ensembles. But it does appear a wave will be ejecting out of the southern stream in the time frame; stay tuned!!!

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2010-2011 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 2-4in
Monthly Total (November)- Trace
Monthly Total (December)- 0.6in
Monthly Total (January)- 11.65in
Seasonal Total- 12.25in
Winter Weather Advisories- 5
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 1

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 24.1F
Lowest Low Temperature- 12.8F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First accumulating snow - December 10 - 0.50in
Clipper light snow - January 7-8 - 2.25in then another 1in
Double Barrel Low - January 11 - 4.5in of snow
Coastal Low - January 17-17 - 1.8in of snow/sleet
Arctic Front - January 20-21 - 2.1in of snow

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

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Quoting Hoynieva:


hahaha...nexties!


It looks like Peggy Fleming has permanent nexties. Sorry. TIMMY
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2998
Quoting PalmyraPunishment:


FIFY is what I want all of you to call me from now on, or maybe Peggy Fleming. Either one is great by me! nexties for sure.



Wow, okay Peggy Fleming. What about Mr. Slave?
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2998
Quoting Gaara:
Snowfall Fantasy League Update

Not too many entries thus far! The rules are simple: just name a city [under 1500 ft. elevation] you think will have the highest total snowfall from this event and a snowfall total.

Winner will be announced sometime Saturday.


I'll take Eastport, ME, for 14.5"
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
Quoting SilverShipsofAndilar:


Prosecution moves to enter defendant's forum post as Prosecution's Exhibit 1.


I object, the prosecution has been known to police the internet and is therefore ineligible to pursue this case any further due to his obvious bias when it comes to legal matters.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1697
Quoting HeavySnow:


Wow, with those odds I guess I'm being put on Mr. Garrison's love train and not the comfy looking pink subway car. That's the way the winter's gone so far. But not anymore. Next storm is a big DC hit. If not, then I will befriend Cthulhu and banish you all to a dark oblivion.


hahaha...nexties!
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1697
Quoting jrzyshore:


P451 is from Tinton Falls( about 10 miles bnorth of me)...I'm from Brick....I have a general idea of where he lives just based on his postings...with the pictures of his neighborhood I'm half tempted to stalk around and see if I could find his house.


Prosecution moves to enter defendant's forum post as Prosecution's Exhibit 1.
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
Quoting HeavySnow:


Next storm is a big DC hit. If not, then I will ctrl+alt+delete myself


FIFY
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
610. Gaara
Snowfall Fantasy League Update

Not too many entries thus far! The rules are simple: just name a city [under 1500 ft. elevation] you think will have the highest total snowfall from this event and a snowfall total.

Winner will be announced sometime Saturday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hoynieva:


I anticipate a 50% chance of dry slotting for you for the rest of winter and a 50% chance of total miss.


Wow, with those odds I guess I'm being put on Mr. Garrison's love train and not the comfy looking pink subway car. That's the way the winter's gone so far. But not anymore. Next storm is a big DC hit. If not, then I will befriend Cthulhu and banish you all to a dark oblivion.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2998
Quoting shipweather:
wasn't he from Brick, NJ? couldn't we find the local paper and search for articles? You know that would make the news.


P451 is from Tinton Falls( about 10 miles bnorth of me)...I'm from Brick....I have a general idea of where he lives just based on his postings...with the pictures of his neighborhood I'm half tempted to stalk around and see if I could find his house.
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Quoting SilverShipsofAndilar:


Six inches is snow, anything less is a tease.


Oh, don't make the snow mad, it might go away from us. I think four might be our biggest event yet here in "Dry Slot" Pa!
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Quoting shipweather:
Well that would be a pleasant surprise if we got 4" . Like I said 3" is always great.


Six inches is snow, anything less is a tease.
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
Quoting CapeCoralStorm:


well, 7 would be around the correct answer. 7.5" to be exact. =)
Yea I figure its safer to round down with the way the seasons gone
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Well that would be a pleasant surprise if we got 4"+. Like I said 3" is always great.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
Quoting anduril:
On another board they're saying ratios of 15to1 would be reasonable for this storm so if they really are calling now for .5qpf that'd be around 7in for central PA? :)


well, 7 would be around the correct answer. 7.5" to be exact. =)
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Sun Shinin in Newark,DE.

Bring on teh clouds and snow!!!!
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On another board they're saying ratios of 15to1 would be reasonable for this storm so if they really are calling now for .5qpf that'd be around 7in for central PA? :)
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Nice "odds" for Heavy!, Yeah I'm leaving at 3PM.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8011
Quoting HeavySnow:


(It can't get much worse)


I anticipate a 50% chance of dry slotting for you for the rest of winter and a 50% chance of total miss.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1697
Yes, LT, looks a lot better than yesterday, doesn't it?

I believe the doctor is calling.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1697
Quoting Hoynieva:


I've got to admit it's getting better...a little better all the time.


(It can't get much worse)
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2998
Quoting 717WeatherLover:


Dude, that is one thing that Central PA is missing out on. We go everytime we visit my mother-in-law in the Princeton area. Hmmmm, we are going on Saturday. I see a trip to P.F. Changs for my family!


Enjoy the MSG fest
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1697
Nice precip shield or area in the Midwest. Wonder if they are underestimating the amounts of snow that we will all eventually get. I see Hoynieva posted higher QPF numbers. With a good ratio, maybe 6-8" is not out of the question for some areas?
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8011
Quoting PalmyraPunishment:


18's pretty much fed the same data as 12, right? wouldn't be too much different.


Yep, and add to that the fact that the system is already moving into far western PA, these models are probably the final say. Over half an inch of qpf with decent ratios means we may out do my 'guess.'
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1697
Quoting Hoynieva:


That was from the 12z, some hours back, first time i looked today. We'll see what 18 says in about an hour and a half.


18's pretty much fed the same data as 12, right? wouldn't be too much different.
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Quoting SilverShipsofAndilar:


I'm in the mood for some P.F. Changs . . .


Dude, that is one thing that Central PA is missing out on. We go everytime we visit my mother-in-law in the Princeton area. Hmmmm, we are going on Saturday. I see a trip to P.F. Changs for my family!
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Quoting shipweather:
more QPF on recent models? That's good news...


That was from the 12z, some hours back, first time i looked today. We'll see what 18 says in about an hour and a half.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1697
Quoting PalmyraPunishment:


Time to put up or shut up on that claim. nom'sayin?!?! :lol:


Not exactly sure what it is I'm supposed to "Put Up"? Wanna throw down on a shoveling contest after the snow tonight? Or maybe some "Snow Wrestling"? Bet JB would approve of that contest.

BTW I saw flakes when I went home at lunch to take the dog for a walk. All our morning virga has thoroughly moistened our atmosphere so we don't have to worry about that once the actual snow gets here.
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more QPF on recent models? That's good news...
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
Quoting PalmyraPunishment:




(I hope more than just Zotty get this and can appreciate it, given Hoynieva's post and the immediate thought I had regarding it...)



I'm in the mood for some P.F. Changs . . .
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
717 - where in LSV are you located? I thought you said you were near Blizz. I would guess you are somewhere around rt22 in either Lower Paxton or West Hanover


I live in Lower Paxton Township off of Union Deposit Road and work in Lower Paxton on 22, just down from the Colonial Park Mall. My son goes to Blizz's HS and knows who he is. Do I remember correctly that you are off of Derry?
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I've got to admit it's getting better...a little better all the time.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1697
Some light flurries about 30mins ago in the Camp Hill/Ceder Cliff area. Seeing then occasionally out the window as Im hobbled on the couch as well. Hoping we do get a decent snow event out of this but not looking forward to shoveling with a bum knee
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Quoting TheF1Man:
Hoy about that mission...I'm in!


all right, beep when you get here. I'll bring the goodies.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1697
Hey Bliz, with latest model runs showing .3-.5in QPF in Central PA and high ratio snows, think there is any chance of us sneaking out 6-8in?
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
Snowmog - Thanks for the link. Mt. Washington is my very favorite winter place. It is a winter wonderland up there. Next time we go, I'm taking that train!!
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1436
Winter weather advisory up for me in Tiverton RI! Yay!

I was thinking our love train should be a little more snowy. So, I propose a Blizz's Blog family trip to Mount Washington! They have a real snow train :0) Who knew!?

http://www.familyskitrips.com/Pages/NHToDoCog.htm
I suppose Heavy (to escape his measley inch)may want to get a head start on over there! We'll see ya there Heavy :0)
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http://www.twp.brick.nj.us/
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Quoting HeavySnow:
And only a measly inch for me. :(


I'm in the 1" zone too, not even enough to delay work, just enough to make driving there a nightmare. Waaahhhh!
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Yes thank you for warning us LT. Best of luck on the surgery.

Hoy about that mission...I'm in!
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Quoting shipweather:
wasn't he from Brick, NJ? couldn't we find the local paper and search for articles? You know that would make the news.


Him flinging a satellite into space? Yes, that'd surely make the news.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1697
wasn't he from Brick, NJ? couldn't we find the local paper and search for articles? You know that would make the news.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
575. zotty

Quoting PalmyraPunishment:




(I hope more than just Zotty get this and can appreciate it, given Hoynieva's post and the immediate thought I had regarding it...)

Ah, not even Bono could do that... I forgot that clip!  rotfl
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 834
574. zotty
Best of luck, LT!  You'll have some snow to come home to tonight/tomorrow to cheer you up!
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 834
hahahahahaha, perfect, PP.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1697
Quoting danielb1023:
Im tellin you, he is just waiting to make a grand reappearance with his brand new map of our locations. You watch!


That's what I've been hoping for. He may have even sent up reconnaissance satellites himself to get our precise coordinates, not trusting google systems. It wouldn't surprise me. Probably just flung them up there with quick wrist action.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1697
Quoting Hoynieva:
I'm interested in #2. Please expand.




(I hope more than just Zotty get this and can appreciate it, given Hoynieva's post and the immediate thought I had regarding it...)

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Thanks for the good wishes. It's at 3:30 today.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8011
Quoting Hoynieva:


Nothing. Just wait it out. I suppose there's always the option of going to his town and looking like a completely obsessed internet stalker whacko by asking around about a guy with large shoveling muscles who's been known to dig out all his neighbors during 3 foot blizzards, is fond of gardening and does not buy the GW theory.

Any takers?

We do have photos of his neighborhood. :)
(j/k if wunderground is monitoring.)
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1436
Im tellin you, he is just waiting to make a grand reappearance with his brand new map of our locations. You watch!
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Good luck with your minor surgery, LT! Look forward to seeing your reports during the storm.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1436

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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