Ice and snow to threaten the Northeast January 17-19...

By: Zachary Labe , 1:10 AM GMT on January 17, 2011

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Sunday night will feature the approach of a high pressure system located north across New York State. Stable air will eventually bring an end to the significant lake effect snow squall near Oswego County on eastward with reports of over 12in of snow. With some radiational cooling, low temperatures will drop to the lowest of the season for many areas from Maryland to Maine. The coldest temperatures will be associated near the heart of the high pressure over upstate New York with -20F lows are possible towards Saranac Lake.

The 18z GFS 2m charts even show lows around -14F for upstate New York with negative teens as far south as northern Pennsylvania. Up towards northern New England a mid level cirrus deck and a slight northwest wind will prevent ideal radiational cooling. For southern areas towards southern Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware lows will be in the teens in the urban areas to single digits over the rural regions. High level cirrus clouds will begin to stream northeast from the southwest ahead of an approaching storm system.

A deep -3SD trough over the northern Plains will be dropping south out of Canada with associated 1020mb high pressure. This deep trough is digging rapidly across the central United States with associated shortwave developing along the eastern periphery of the trough. This primary low will track northwest into Minnesota and will gradually shear apart as a second low redevelops south across northern Florida. Another double barrel low storm system will plague the east coast. Increasing PWATs will rise in the Middle Atlantic ahead of the low pressure developing off the North Carolina.

A southerly flow aloft will help to migrate the H85 0C line northward along with a sharp mid level above freezing deck. The high pressure over New York State will lift quickly to the northeast positioning itself just east of Nova Scotia. Warm air advection will aid in some light snow developing across northern Virginia moving northeast. The anomalous southerly flow will quickly change the light snow in Virginia and Maryland over to sleet and then freezing rain as the troposphere warms from top to bottom. By late Monday night the light snow will push north of the Mason-Dixon line. Some UVV and frontogenic support will cause a period of moderate snow for those along and north of the Pennsylvania turnpike early Tuesday morning with a quick burst of 1-2in of snow. Some locations towards the southern Poconos may even see a quick 3in of snow by the Tuesday morning commute. The H85 0C thermal will quickly progress northeast over into northern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey. Again the warm air advection snow will give most areas a quick 1-3in of snow before the changeover to sleet and freezing rain. Current GFS SKEWT T charts indicate surface temperatures to remain below freezing especially for areas just northwest of I-95 from northern Maryland on northward.

The SKEWT T chart above is for KMDT during the height of the precipitation. Keep in mind the bold white line on the right is the temperature in Celsius. The surface around 1000mb is below freezing with rising temperatures with increasing altitude.

Cold air is denser than warm air and will likely hang on aloft a big tougher across New England. Current GFS/NAM prognostics indicate a burst of moderate to heavy snow near Albany and drawing a line eastward. Along the line and northward, a quick 2-6in of snow will occur before a changeover as temperatures warm aloft through New England. Current model surface maps indicate most of the heavier QPF over eastern areas especially in coastal regions of New Jersey up through southern New England where 1in QPF is possible. Model guidance supports a east-northeast wind at the surface. This often will lead me to believe that the cold air persists for inland areas longer than expected and couple that with the fact of a widespread snow park from northern Maryland on northward. I do not buy the quickly rising 2m 0C line advertised on the ECMWF and NAM. I think a major of the precipitation will be freezing rain along a line from Harrisburg to Allentown to Stroudburg to White Plains to Tolland to Worcestor. While QPF will be lighter in these areas, even .1-.2in of freezing rain can cause problems. With ground temperatures well below freezing from the antecedent cold air, non-treated surfaces will continue to freeze over even as boundary layer temperatures rise to 33-35F. For coastal areas and along I-95, most of the precipitation will be rain after a quick 1in of snow/sleet especially north of Philadelphia. The heaviest QPF will be over this region with rapidly decling amounts as one heads west. SREF means indicate only .1-.25in for many areas west of I-81. Eventually by Tuesday evening the surface low, 996mb, will move northward over Rhode Island and Massachusetts allowing surface temperatures to rise above freezing outside the higher elevations in the Berkshires where ice could be significant.

The highest risk of freezing rain is across northwest Connecticut, central Massachusetts. Also western Massachusetts up through New Hampshire, Vermont, and Maine will be at the highest threat for over 4in of wet snow.

A weak shortwave will rotate through as the cold front passes and the H85 0C line progresses west. The high resolution NAM is showing a light area of .1-.2in of QPF associated with this wave progressing through parts of the northern Middle Atlantic in Pennsylania. At the current time, it looks like it will be light rain especially for eastern areas, but I cannot rule out a 1-3in snow for some areas in western and central Pennsylvania with this shortwave.

Overall it appears a moderate accumulation (3-7in) is likely for the higher elevations of northern New England with moderate (.1-.25in) of freezing rain along the foothills of the Appalachians from Harrisburg on northeast up through central Massachusetts. The heavier QPF will be east towards the metropolitan region where 1in of rain is possible from Washington DC up through New York City. My map below gives a rough estimate on totals for this event. Given the complexity of the precipitation types, it is difficult to make a generalized map. Keep in mind snow totals will likely be a bit higher than I show on the map for northern New England. Also western Pennsylvania and western Maryland will likely see 1-3in of snow with the shortwave that will move through Wednesday along with some lake effect snow.


The current operational ECMWF shows a significant coastal cyclone affecting the region towards next weekend. The model though has little support from other guidance including the ensembles. But it does appear a wave will be ejecting out of the southern stream in the time frame; stay tuned!!!

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2010-2011 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 2-4in
Monthly Total (November)- Trace
Monthly Total (December)- 0.6in
Monthly Total (January)- 11.65in
Seasonal Total- 12.25in
Winter Weather Advisories- 5
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 1

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 24.1F
Lowest Low Temperature- 12.8F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
First accumulating snow - December 10 - 0.50in
Clipper light snow - January 7-8 - 2.25in then another 1in
Double Barrel Low - January 11 - 4.5in of snow
Coastal Low - January 17-17 - 1.8in of snow/sleet
Arctic Front - January 20-21 - 2.1in of snow

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

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967. PhillySnow
9:00 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
Quoting originalLT:
Phillysnow, I disagree with you on that one. If you go back to his blog you'll see he was as excited as ever about the weather that had been going on last winter, and while true he was doing some more out-side things, it seems totally out of character for him to just disappear after his last post on Feb. 27th. , at least disappear without saying anything to his blog "mates".

I'm sure you're right, LT. Just an impression I had and, yes, it does seem out of character for him to not say "goodbye." The whole thing with both of them is concerning, and I suppose it is part of the nature of online communities.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1253
966. originalLT
8:45 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
Phillysnow, I disagree with you on that one. If you go back to his blog you'll see he was as excited as ever about the weather that had been going on last winter, and while true he was doing some more out-side things, it seems totally out of character for him to just disappear after his last post on Feb. 27th. , at least disappear without saying anything to his blog "mates". He was a featured blogger, and with that I believe there is some added responsibilty to WU and people who visit the blog. I know that if Blizz has to leave or cut back because of school responsibilities when in college, he will inform us.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7920
965. TheRasberryPatch
8:37 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
Hoy - '78 or was it '79 was big in the mid-atlantic. we hadn't seen that much snow in a long time. probably 10 or more years. '83 was just as big. then not much until the winter of '94 where most of it was freezing rain and sleet. then came '96. the first one in '96 was a doozy. where we had the highest amount of snow until a few years ago.
when I lived in Orange County, NY the winter 2000-2001 was some big storms. The one 12/30/00 was big for that area.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6275
964. PhillySnow
8:35 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
Quoting originalLT:
Hoy. you are right, P451 disappearence is , on a smaller time scale , somewhat like the loss of Sully, very strange, and worrysome.

It seems a bit different to me in that Sully was getting involved in other things and posting less and less until he finally stopped, whereas P451 was full speed ahead having a grand old time on the blog.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1253
963. 1900hurricane
8:30 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
New Blog
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11694
962. Hoynieva
8:27 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
Haha, this is for you TRP:

For their part, New England residents tend to point to the Blizzard of 1978 as their "storm of the century," due largely to its unrelenting snowfall, which temporarily dislocated the weather-hardened region, while Mid-Atlantic residents tend to point to the Blizzard of 1996 for similar reasons.

Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1519
961. TheRasberryPatch
8:26 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
Quoting Hoynieva:


Yep, 960 MB measured in New England. Wind gusts as high as 110 mph recorded along its path. It was basically a hurricane with snow. Florida even had 4" in the panhandle.


geez...i am being sarcastic about the storm in '93 being tiny and everyone jumps on me. OK so some people had it bad.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6275
960. 717WeatherLover
8:13 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
Well, I guess I know how I'm going to spend my weekend....burning out my eyeballs,glued to the computer screen watching the play-by-plays of every model run coming in. I didn't want to start stripping the wall paper off of the kid's bathroom anyway. I'm just so afraid to get my hopes up for a good snow........
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 270
959. Hoynieva
8:11 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
March 13th, 1993. Haha.

Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1519
958. SnowinCT
8:07 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
Quoting ConnecticutWXGuy:
I think it looks really good for all of New England, except for Cape Cod and the islands. Changeover to rain there - but a general 1 to 3 foot snowfall appears likely in the vast majority of New England. I've noticed most of the models, which had one run of a warmer trend are now going back colder. Most notably the GFS. As deep as this cold is going to be, I really have my doubts as to how much and how quick it gets ushered out. I've seen it go from -7 to over 50 in less than 12 hours once before, so I know such a quick warm-up is possible. But it appears to me as if there is a lot more to keep cold air in place this time around.

do you think the snow holds true for SW CT?
Member Since: December 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 39
957. Hoynieva
8:06 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
Quoting originalLT:
Good question Zotty. Also Hoy. you are right, P451 disappearence is , on a smaller time scale , somewhat like the loss of Sully, very strange, and worrysome.


Yep, it's unfortunate. There's even a part of me that doesn't want to know.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1519
956. Hoynieva
8:04 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
Is that sunday night, zotty? Haha, that is going to be frigid. Single digits.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1519
955. originalLT
8:03 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
Good question Zotty. Also Hoy. you are right, P451 disappearence is , on a smaller time scale , somewhat like the loss of Sully, very strange, and worrysome.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7920
954. Hoynieva
8:01 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
Quoting originalLT:
TRP, you are right. the storm hasn't even initializ yet. Same for me, The Storm of the Century gave me about 11-12", But one has to admit, a large area of the East from GA. to NY did receive 2-3 ft. of snow, and a very low barometric pressure reading and strong winds.


Yep, 960 MB measured in New England. Wind gusts as high as 110 mph recorded along its path. It was basically a hurricane with snow. Florida even had 4" in the panhandle.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1519
953. zotty
7:59 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
Blizz- one important question before we get to Tuesday- what are your forecasts for temperature and chance of precip for Jets-Steelers, please?
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 774
952. originalLT
7:58 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
TRP, for the coastal Mid-Atlantic you are right.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7920
951. TheRasberryPatch
7:54 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
Quoting originalLT:
TRP, you are right. the storm hasn't even initializ yet. Same for me, The Storm of the Century gave me about 11-12", But one has to admit, a large area of the East from GA. to NY did receive 2-3 ft. of snow, and a very low barometric pressure reading and strong winds.


for the mid-Atlantic it was pretty lame.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6275
950. zotty
7:54 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
anyone heard from cchamps?  he must be one busy guy.  i'd love to know how they plan their plow patterns up there.  in New Rochelle NY there was a main road they didn't bother or remember to plow.  I'm just wondering if there is some magic to the pattern, experience, planning, or just plain smarts of the drivers.  
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 774
949. PalmyraPunishment
7:53 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
The only one I can recall that happening was the tiny storm of '93 where we got 13". some storm of the century. at least it wasn't for snow accumulation


Yeah, we got 42 inches of snow outside of Huntingdon, PA with that one. Total non-event lol
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
948. originalLT
7:52 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
TRP, you are right. the storm hasn't even initializ yet. Same for me, The Storm of the Century gave me about 11-12", But one has to admit, a large area of the East from GA. to NY did receive 2-3 ft. of snow, and a very low barometric pressure reading and strong winds.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7920
947. shipweather
7:51 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
Tuesday is my first day as an airline employee at MDT. Of course we're getting an epic blizzard. I couldn't be more pleased.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
946. Hoynieva
7:48 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
uh oh here we go again. hahahaha i can't stop laughing.

I know I am just an amateur weather OBSERVER, but in my lifetime, very rarely can you tell exactly the path of the storm this far out. The only one I can recall that happening was the tiny storm of '93 where we got 13". some storm of the century. at least it wasn't for snow accumulation


My uncle was building his house in the mountains near Asheville, NC when this storm occurred. It's a great story to hear him tell it and I remember it vividly at the time, our family worried about him out there alone in his temporary shack. He ended up meeting most of his neighbors that night, helping to dig them out of just under 5 feet of snow. Amazing.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1519
945. TheRasberryPatch
7:45 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
uh oh here we go again. hahahaha i can't stop laughing.

I know I am just an amateur weather OBSERVER, but in my lifetime, very rarely can you tell exactly the path of the storm this far out. The only one I can recall that happening was the tiny storm of '93 where we got 13". some storm of the century. at least it wasn't for snow accumulation
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6275
944. breald
7:44 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
Quoting originalLT:
Breald, its all on that placement of the low's center as it moves up the coast, right near or over the coast we'll get snow to rain, further East and we'll have mostly snow.(I'm talking for those of us near I95).


I seem to fall in the rain/snow line. So far this year we have had a mixture with every storm. Even the storm we had today.
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
943. Hoynieva
7:43 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
If P451 doesn't get excited and come online for this possible monster, there's definitely something wrong.

Someone was suggesting snooping around his neighborhood yesterday.
I hereby give them permission.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1519
942. originalLT
7:37 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
Breald, its all on that placement of the low's center as it moves up the coast, right near or over the coast we'll get snow to rain, further East and we'll have mostly snow.(I'm talking for those of us near I95).
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7920
941. bwi
7:35 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
HPC puts the low right over the lower Chesapeake Bay day 5. A little too west for DC maybe, but still looks like quite a storm.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1401
940. PalmyraPunishment
7:34 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
2 feet of wet snow? man, roofs across the entire valley just started praying for their lives.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
939. zotty
7:31 PM GMT on January 21, 2011

Quoting Blizzard92:
2.8in of QPF all snow for KMDT with probably a 9:1 ratio on the 12z ECMWF.
that is pretty insane. I wouldn't want to shovel that...
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 774
938. PhillySnow
7:31 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
Thanks, Hoy and LT, for the thermometer advice. Will do!
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937. breald
7:23 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
It looks like the next storm will be a pretty good one. As usual, they are calling for mostly snow in the interior and a mix/rain for the coast.

It is hard to believe that we will have single digit lows and below zero wind chill for this weekend, but rain on Tuesday.
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
936. shipweather
7:19 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
My....goodness.....


I'm so scared to get caught up in the hype. If this dies tomorrow, I'm not sure I could recover but BLIZZ, how many runs in a row has this thing been a monster?
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
935. Zachary Labe
7:17 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
2.8in of QPF all snow for KMDT with probably a 9:1 ratio on the 12z ECMWF.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15135
934. shipweather
7:09 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
This is amazing.....
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
933. danielb1023
7:08 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
With those GFS ensembles my novice eye doesnt see the inland Low.....I still see the perfect just off the coast snow setup for the I-95 corridor. Please explain........
Member Since: September 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 271
932. GTOSnow
7:02 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
Well i am in trouble if this is anyhting other then snow, flooding will be a real problem for my house!

I am 5 miles south of Worcester, just above the line where CT and RI meet pretty much, hopefully far enough inland to get snow out of this one.
Member Since: February 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 229
931. originalLT
6:57 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
Ctwxguy, I'm afraid that if it verifies and the storm is right near the coast, it will be strong enough to sweep in those ESE winds and flood our area with milder air, with a snow changing to rain situation. Of course all this is several days away, its tough to pin-point the low's center that far out. Blizz is just stating a possible , but likely scenario. But nothing is engraved in stone at this point.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7920
930. 1900hurricane
6:55 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
GFS ensembles are still showing alot of uncertainty with the exact specifications of the storm:







Click the images to view them supersized.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11694
929. Snowlover2010
6:52 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:
12z GFS snow accumulation map... YES please! hahaha


I feel like this could be our big one of the winter back here in State College. Especially the way the storms have gone this year. Snow. Rain. Snow. Rain....Last one was snow for the coast, so I feel like this one will be rain for them.
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
928. danielb1023
6:45 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
Hey Blizz, this is looking like 287 could be a good bet for the rain/snow line in Jersey. Given that I live 5 miles east of that line I am hoping for a 10 mile jog to the east!!!! Is that really so much to ask for????
Member Since: September 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 271
927. Zachary Labe
6:41 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
Yes I know I am hyping very early and a lot could go wrong, but there is remarkable consistency in a major storm affecting the east coast whether it be rain or snow.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15135
926. Zachary Labe
6:40 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
Quoting NJHurricanez:
My first POST! How does new week look for Monmouth County, NJ, is it going to be cold enough?

Welcome aboard! Too early to tell, but I think you will have several types of precipitation to deal with. I will post a new blog later today that will give a bit more detail with my early thoughts.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15135
925. NJHurricanez
6:39 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
My first POST! How does new week look for Monmouth County, NJ, is it going to be cold enough?
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 13
924. Zachary Labe
6:39 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
Almost 3-4in of QPF for parts of the northern Middle Atlantic and as far west as Lancaster or so!!! This storm looks to be loaded with QPF. I am going to post a new blog this afternoon giving the storm setup along with the several possibilities!!!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15135
923. ConnecticutWXGuy
6:33 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
I think it looks really good for all of New England, except for Cape Cod and the islands. Changeover to rain there - but a general 1 to 3 foot snowfall appears likely in the vast majority of New England. I've noticed most of the models, which had one run of a warmer trend are now going back colder. Most notably the GFS. As deep as this cold is going to be, I really have my doubts as to how much and how quick it gets ushered out. I've seen it go from -7 to over 50 in less than 12 hours once before, so I know such a quick warm-up is possible. But it appears to me as if there is a lot more to keep cold air in place this time around.
Member Since: November 17, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 527
922. Zachary Labe
6:32 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
Quoting SilverShipsofAndilar:


I feel like this is already too good to be true. I'm hoping for snow and expecting rain or nothing.

12z ECMWF looks like about two feet of a very wet snow along and west of the Lebanon to York line.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15135
921. Zachary Labe
6:32 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
Quoting GTOSnow:
I don't want to get excited, but how would this storm look for us up here in NE??

Lots of precipitation; full of gulf moisture! But precipitation type problems until you get as far west as northwestern Connecticut up through central Massachusetts.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15135
920. SilverShipsofAndilar
6:31 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:
12z ECMWF is out and is definitely more inland than the GFS. Absolutely massive snowstorm along and northwest of the Hagerstown-York-Reading line. Poconos and central Pennsylvania are nailed. I will have more details on QPF soon.


I feel like this is already too good to be true. I'm hoping for snow and expecting rain or nothing.
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
919. photonchaser
6:29 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
Snow just stopped here in Southern Maine, got alot more than expected. Around 10 inches.
Member Since: June 3, 2004 Posts: 1 Comments: 134
918. GTOSnow
6:29 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
I don't want to get excited, but how would this storm look for us up here in NE??
Member Since: February 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 229
917. Zachary Labe
6:28 PM GMT on January 21, 2011
12z ECMWF is out and is definitely more inland than the GFS. Absolutely massive snowstorm along and northwest of the Hagerstown-York-Reading line. Poconos and central Pennsylvania are nailed. I will have more details on QPF soon.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15135

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