Significant Snow Chances on the Horizon???

By: Zachary Labe , 8:23 PM GMT on November 29, 2010

Share this Blog
2
+

"Afternoon Thoughts" (Updated 11/29)
Oh the sounds of the holidays. December is typically my favorite month of the year. Something about the holiday season is comforting to me. My family all live in a 20mi radius of me, so it is not like I do not get to see them often. Perhaps it is just the warmth of the decorations and cold air now outside. I love the thought of being trapped in a small mountain cabin with a large fireplace as a blizzard roars outside. But typically living here in the good ol' Middle Atlantic, it usually is a blinding rain as temperatures shoot up into the 50s while the Christmas lights short-circuit from the wet conditions. In any case, I am one who looks forward to this time of year. Perhaps this is because I am not the one spending nearly a thousand dollars on gifts, but oh well. Oh, and on December 9th I find out my decision for Cornell; that adds a bit of excitement to the thought of December, although it could be disappointment in the end run, lol. Most areas have now received at least their first trace of snow and some areas surprisingly their first accumulation on Thanksgiving. Middletown Airport measured .1in of snow on Thanksgiving. How they measured this beats me, as it was just rain and sleet here. The flurries followed on Saturday and were hardly anything noteworthy let alone measurable. The La Nina conditions are still in the moderate category in the equitorial Pacific despite a bit of brief warming from a weak westerly wind burst. But some recent upwelling has allowing SST anomalies to sink back to previous values. The north Atlantic continues to be a mess with unusual heights over northern Canada, Greenland, and Iceland. There is a very powerful and anomalous east based negative NAO, but yet really no 50/50 low. These strange teleconnections have been causing many problems on the long range GFS, GGEM, and ECMWF. This is the general theme of the weather for the upcoming week. Model prognostics should be taken with a grain of salt. Anyways hope everyone had a happy Thanksgiving and now lets take a look at several snow threats! By the way, my December foreacast will be coming out next week.

"Current Surface Plot"

(Courtesy of HPC)

"Regional Radar"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"Regional Advisories"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Forecast Discussion"(Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware)(Updated 11/29)
A strong cold front moving through the Midwest will continue to trek eastward gathering increasing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. A strong southerly flow will allow a mid level cirrus deck to lower and thicken Monday night as PWATs increase to +4SD. The strong low level jet near 50knots will continue to increase as the pressure gradient tightens Monday night. The low pressure moving up threat Wisconsin will continue to deepen at nearly -1mb/hr lowering to 992mb. By Tuesday the trough will become negatively tilted with the jet streak situated over the Middle Atlantic. This will promote the threat of very heavy rainfall and high winds. H85s will rise to near +10C over southern Maryland as temperatures rise to near 10F above normal. Winds will increase at the surface under the jet streak. GFS BUFKIT data shows areas on the western facing ridges receiving gusts upwards of 55mph for the first half of Tuesday over western Pennsylvania and western Maryland. The rest of the region will be receiving gusts in excess of 30mph out of the southwest through Wednesday morning. It looks like the low pressure will redevelop along the jet streak in the northern Middle Atlantic as the primary low moves up into Canada. With Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware being in the right front quadrant, there is the potential for a damaging wind band. There is little to no instability at the surface, but a bit of 100-200j/kg of elevated CAPE. In correlation with a 60knot low level jet, a few strong wind gusts may mix to the surface with an embedded frontal rain band. Current 4km HIRES NMM simulated radar indicates the highest potential for this embedded rain band to be across Maryland, Delaware, and extreme southeastern Pennsylvania early Wednesday morning before dawn. Copious amounts of moisture will drop a heavy rain over the entire region with QPF totals near 1-3in. At times the rain rate will be very high, but the fast movement of the stratiform rain shield should keep amounts below 4in. FFG is at or around 3in/12hr, so flash flooding is a possibility along smaller streams and creeks. I do not expect any main stem river flooding through the entire northern Middle Atlantic. Temperatures will also be interesting to follow during the period of unsettled weather on Tuesday and Wednesday. After lows in the 30s Monday night, the southerly flow and increasing clouds will shoot temperatures to near 50F on Tuesday and possibly near 60F for extreme southern Maryland. Temperatures will continue to rise slowly Tuesday night peaking early morning Wednesday. As the front passes through H85s will drop from near +10C to -2C. Surface temperatures will nose dive from the 50s to the 30s by Wednesday late afternoon. The cold air may catch up with some lighter precipitation along the front with rain changing to snow for areas west of Altoona-State College-Lock Haven and north of the Mason-Dixon line. Elevations above 2000ft in the Laurel Highlands and up across northcentral Pennsylvania may see a quick 1in of snow Wednesday midday. In general the frontal passage will push through eastern areas by mid afternoon Wednesday. Total QPF for most areas will be a heavy 1-3in. Southwest winds will be strongest over western Pennsylvania particularily along the ridgetops. But there will also be the threat of a low-topped convective band Tuesday night over Maryland, Delaware, and southern Pennsylvania capable of damaging winds. Widespread flooding is not likely due to the fast movement of the storm.

Colder and drier air will be ushered into the region by Wednesday night as the double barrel low pushes northeastward into the Canadian maritimes. The Northeast will then be under a cyclonic flow for the rest of the week. Some lake effect snow is possible, but generally the west-southwest flow aloft will keep the organized banding into New York State especially the southern Buffalo suburbs. See more below. Still orographic lift will aid in a general C-1in of snow for the Laurel Highlands through Thursday morning. High temperatures Thursday through Saturday will be around -5F below climatology for most locations under cyclonic flow. This means the typical strato-cumulus over the mountains with clearer skies in eastern areas courtesy of downsloping winds. The primary low from earlier in the week will become cutoff over Newfoundland towards late Friday and Saturday. This will add some moisture aloft and turn the flow a bit more northerly. Some lake effect snow moderate accumulations are possible Friday into Saturday over parts of Pennsylvania and western Maryland. This is supported by GFS QPF fields. Meanwhile a gathering shortwave over the Midwest will begin to plow eastward by Saturday afternoon. As for the shortwave, prognostics differ on amplication of this wave by Saturday night. See more below.

"Regional Satellite"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Current Water Vapor Loop"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Lake Effect Snow Conditions" (Updated 11/29)
After a strong cold front passes through the entire Middle Atlantic, the region will be under the grip of a stark cyclonic flow. A double barrel low pressure will move northeast over the Canadian maritimes by Wednesday night and Thursday. H85s will fall to below -5C as far south as Washington DC. Initially on Thursday the flow will be around 260-270 degrees with relatively moist H7 levels. Omega values will be increasing with a bit of lake instability just 50mi east of the coast. This wind trajector will promote most of the lake effect snow bands to organize north of Pennsylvania very similar to this past week. I would suspect a relatively strong band of lake effect snow east of Lake Erie in New York State just north of Jamestown and inching north into the southern Buffalo suburbs. This plateau has a bit of a higher elevation than surrounding areas and may actually see a decent amount of snow Thursday through early Friday morning with accumulations up to 10in. Also another band is possible east of Lake Ontario and probably just north of Oswego. The band in southern New York State may clip parts of Erie, Crawford, and Warren counties in Pennsylvania with 1-4in of snow with perhaps higher amounts near the city of Erie. As a low pressure becomes cutoff over Newfoundland, the flow will turn more northwesterly with a trajectory near 300 degrees. This will promote more widespread lake effect snow across Pennsylvania and western Maryland for Friday and Saturday. Model QPF suggest a 0.3-0.4in for parts of the Laurel Highlands and northwestern Pennsylvania with total lake effect snow QPF from the band on Thursday near 0.7in for extreme northeastern parts of Erie and Crawford counties. Some lake effect snow flurries are possible into central Pennsylvania also Friday and Saturday with lighter orographic snows in through the Poconos with a general C-1in. Total snow accumulation on Friday and Saturday may be a general 2-5in for the Laurel Highlands and northwestern snow belts with 1-3in towards western Maryland. Temperatures will certainly be cold enough, but shearing winds aloft should prevent organized banding. Snow ratios will be around 12:1. An Alberta clipper will approach from the west towards Saturday afternoon. At least we can start building some snow pack over the higher elevation ski resorts of this soggy frontal passage this Wednesday. Interestingly enough, we still have yet to have a major lake effect snow outbreak and I doubt this one will be it.

"Current Great Lakes Water Temperatures"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Long Term Outlook" (Updated 11/29)
As I am typing this, the hubub of activity is of course drawn to the December 6-7th and December 9th-10th time frames. Looking at specific model prognostics is purely pointless at this point. At first I will look at the setup. The east-based negative NAO will be continuing into the first December 6-7th period. But this blocking is a bit off-centered for our ideals and there is a lacking 50/50 low. The PNA will be neutral in this time frame coupled with a negative going to positive EPO. The cold air will definitely be available. We have a bowling ball shortwave dropping out of Canada and moving east (generally moisture starved through the Ohio Valley). Light snows (C-2in) will fall in its wake. A deep trough over the east coast may allow amplification of a redeveloping low off the Middle Atlantic coast. The trough is a bit broad for my liking, but none the less it has been steepening in recent model trends. A low pressure will develop off the coast and rapidly deepen; that I am pretty certain of. But the difficult part will be location, location, location. Climatology does not support a major snowstorm along the I-95 corridor with a high end moderate La Nina, but climatology can be broken considering the anomalous north Atlantic. The GGEM and ECMWF support a feasible solution with a low developing just southeast of the Delmarva off the coast throwing snow westward. The ECMWF probably overamplifies the low pressure retrograding it in New England for a major winter storm. But I am encouraged by trends of deeping the initial S/W and redeveloping in the northern stream. At this point, I think I am going to sound the potential for an accumulating light snow over Maryland and Delaware into southern Pennsylvania late this weekend. If this S/W trend continues to deepen, a more full fledge Miller B solution is quite possible. I feel that a more amplified scenario is more likely than a sheared out version like the GFS suggests. It is also likely this will trend a bit northward as climatology favors a stronger southeast ridge, unlike last winter. As for the 9-10th, at the time I will leave that for another day. But that period does offer potential for a winter storm too.

"Current NAO and PNA Predictions"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Anchorage, Alaska Tower Cam"

*Back due to popular demand!

"Monthly Temperature/Precipitation Outlook"(November)(Updated 10/23)
I think I am going to trend a bit on the mild side for the upcoming November despite interesting teleconnections. Mean 500mb guidance from the past week show a bit a southeast ridge beginning to flex its muscle into the southern Middle Atlantic. Latest 10/23/10 0utc GFS 10-14day 500mb mean actually supports this continuing in that range with a 588dm ridge over the southeast. Right now the polar vortex is just north of Alaska by about 200mi, which is good for now. But guidance suggests this may sink southward towards November. This tends to favor ridging over the east coast and troughing over the western United States up through Alaska and the Canadian Rockies. But current ensemble runs indicate a negative NAO to open up November. There will likely be an eastern cool pattern during the first week of November. The La Nina continues to show that it is already one of the strongest La Ninas on record. But it is encouraging to see little temperature drops in Nina 3.4 SSTs. For those looking for an early season snowstorm this year, a few encouraging signs can be found in the cryosphere. Levels are at around normal values, which are actually higher than the previous few years. Siberian snow cover has shown impressive gains in the last two weeks and has reached above normal levels. Also North America snow levels have increased in northern Canada and Alaska courtesy of the trough moving through and associated low presssure system. None the less, I believe typical La Nina conditions will dominate November's weather with a southeast ridge. But cooler weather may return towards the end of the month with perhaps the first inland snowfall in this time period around or just after Thanksgiving. We shall see how those wavelengths turn out. Precipitation chances are right around normal for all areas. The farther south one goes in the Middle Atlantic will dictate how anomalous the warmth is this month as weak troughing from the negative NAO may be enough to save some areas in Pennsylvania from the warmth.

"Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from Climate Prediction Center for next 30 days"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

-Winter Outlook 2010-2011...Link.

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2010-2011 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 0in
Monthly Total (November)- Trace
Monthly Total (December)- Trace
Seasonal Total- Trace
Winter Weather Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 0

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 35.8F
Lowest Low Temperature- 20.8F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
None...

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 187 - 137

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4Blog Index

187. pittsburghpotato
3:11 PM GMT on December 08, 2010
Can anyone tell me the current snow depth in Erie? If so can you also tell me if the ground is frozen and how deep?
Much appreciated...Thanks!!
Member Since: December 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
186. Mason803
9:08 PM GMT on December 04, 2010
blizzard92,

i have a feeling that this may be your year for snow in our region. Last year was a turnpike south year and areas south of route 30 really cashed in. I feel that being a little further north than me will help you this coming winter esp. if you can manage those 322's like a couple winters ago.
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
185. Zachary Labe
8:53 PM GMT on December 04, 2010
18z NAM signaling even a chance of a light accumulation snow for as far south as Harrisburg from a 322 band towards Monday. This is a very strong signal, and I will outline this more in my blog debuting in the next hour.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
184. TheDawnAwakening
8:11 PM GMT on December 04, 2010
Fairly significant LES event coming up, especially for the Erie, PA through NE OH. Very interesting setup.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3564
183. Zachary Labe
7:17 PM GMT on December 04, 2010
Snow flurries still falling here; 35F.

Quoting 8963su:
PS, Blizzard, I love your blog. Excellent work. Best of luck with the college acceptances! I hope this doesn't mean that you'll be too busy to post next year!

Thankyou!!!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
182. 8963su
6:57 PM GMT on December 04, 2010
PS, Blizzard, I love your blog. Excellent work. Best of luck with the college acceptances! I hope this doesn't mean that you'll be too busy to post next year!
Member Since: December 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23
181. 8963su
6:56 PM GMT on December 04, 2010
I'm in eastern CT and can't wait for the first big storm! Call me old fashioned, but I've always heard that when you see the first juncos at the feeder, you'll have snow within 3 days. I'm keeping my eyes peeled!
Member Since: December 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23
180. Drakoen
5:46 PM GMT on December 04, 2010
Models have been featuring a clipper system moving through the Great Lakes region and into the Northeast next week Saturday. GFS has been trending south with it in its 06z and 12z runs which is good considering the 00z had it in the northern Great Lakes. Still plenty of time for change though. Euro has it coming down but tilting negative as it reaches the eastern Great Lakes and the UKMET appears to want to keep it near the U.S./Canadian border. I like how the GFS has been performing so far with the potential to bring light snow accumulations to the Ohio Valley region and into the north east.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
178. Zachary Labe
5:10 PM GMT on December 04, 2010
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
a very impressive snow outbreak for sure. Is that a clipper moving through Cincinnati?

My in-laws just north of South Bend told me they got a coating this morning, but expecting 12-16 inches starting tomorrow. and more LES next week. Now all of this depends on the winds off Lake Michigan.

did I hear areas of Alaska with temps way below sub-zero

Yep, that is a clipper slipping to our south. The lake effect is going to be wild even for northwestern Pennsylvania. I think some areas may see up to 25in of snow just southeast of Erie.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
177. TheRasberryPatch
5:06 PM GMT on December 04, 2010
a very impressive snow outbreak for sure. Is that a clipper moving through Cincinnati?

My in-laws just north of South Bend told me they got a coating this morning, but expecting 12-16 inches starting tomorrow. and more LES next week. Now all of this depends on the winds off Lake Michigan.

did I hear areas of Alaska with temps way below sub-zero
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6234
176. Walshy
5:05 PM GMT on December 04, 2010
Almost one inch of snow here in North Carolina east of the mountains. Maybe another 2inches on the way? Football games and parades are being cancelled left and right since it was not predicted to amount to much until the last minute.

Mountains 3-6inches plus more upslope in the week.

Foothills 1-3 inches

Piedmont Around 1 inch

Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 904
175. Zachary Labe
4:47 PM GMT on December 04, 2010
I am going to try to get a new blog out sometime today detailing the upcoming week, but especially a very long and impressive lake effect snow outbreak; snow map coming too!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
174. TheDawnAwakening
3:38 PM GMT on December 04, 2010
I agree P451, Maine will get some potentially big snows from the coastal/clipper low pressure system. OES does not look like its going to happen for us again, too much of a westerly component. Erie, PA looks to get hammered with intense snowfall this weekend into early next week, with a potential dual lake connection.

Also the day 10 00z EURO forecast has a major coastal nor'easter with 850mb temperatures over Cape Cod, MA with the low roughly 50 miles to our ENE around -15C, that would be some major fluff factor involved there. Does anyone know the amount of QPF involved?
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3564
172. johnbluedog69
1:33 PM GMT on December 04, 2010
JB this morning.


SATURDAY MORNING.
If you can look at my euro site..some interesting posts there including a clarification from NSIDC on how their site works, and I think there is no reason for me to any longer raise questions on it, even though it seems lower than others ( it will make the ice recovery even more impressive a forecast.. ha ha) and a post on an article appearing in the UK on how global warming may be causing the severe cold.

Alice in Wonderland Weather continues in the AGW camp.

Winter Wonderland is evolving for the states. The magnitude of the block that is developing over the north atlantic is such that this is as good a pattern for having a winter run up for Christmas as last year. Whether this is in the genre of the 1916-1917, 1917-1918 "La Freaka" as I called them.. Cold winters with a strong La Nina and a way below normal 1917 hurricane season.. perhaps having something to do with the major Alaska volcano a few years before, well that is entering my mind. I believe when this La Nina comes off, there is going to be some real you know what to pay, and the theory on my part is that the natural forcing of the strong La Nina, and the westerly QBO will have its way and flip the pattern. But when. The euro weeklies really but a brrrrr in my blazing saddle Thursday night, insisting on this through the New Year.

One thing that is lacking is the southern branch. However the clipper today is a "mini example" of what can happen here, a northern branch feature diving in. Shorten the wavelengths and you have yourself a monster storm on the east coast. Trying to pick out when is a problem, but until then smaller storms diving into the pattern assure the nation of a corridor of cold from northwest to southeast with snow trying to get its foot hold because of that corridor.

Looking at the Euro day 11-15 ensembles vs the GFS ensembles, the same problem that I pointed on Tuesday for day 15 ( now day 11 with the monster trough on the east coast) appears to be going on with the euro quite bit colder looking over the nation than the GFS which keeps trying to shove warmups into the northern plains. This time I walloped it, as there is now a major trough forecasted on the east coast around the 15th instead of the flatter look the model had when this battle started. I am still soar from its mid November western trough victory, but next time it tries to actually send the trough into the western US, rather than simply keeping it further north and flatten the flow, then I will be ready. But for now, its error pattern looks more like what we saw with its early November bust.

In any case, it is making for plenty of interesting weather for a large part of the nation.

By the way, the short wave that is going to be tailing southeast toward the gulf early next week, may put snow down all the way to the I-20 corridor between Dallas and Jackson. At this time I dont think the holy grails of southern snows, Houston and New Orleans will see it but it may get darn close.

ciao for now ****
Member Since: October 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 437
169. TheRasberryPatch
4:16 AM GMT on December 04, 2010
I just came from Hershey and they are getting dumped on with snow. as i drove east to my house in Campbelltown it's just flurries.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6234
168. pittsburghnurse
1:39 AM GMT on December 04, 2010
Learned something new today. Thank you so much for settling that question.
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
167. Zachary Labe
1:06 AM GMT on December 04, 2010
originalLT- Lol, yea I understand. Those degree measurements are very important to lake effect snow setups. And interestingly enough a 320 degree flow is typically responsible for those streamers.

TheDawnAwakening- Probably a few light snow showers as the cutoff low adds some moisture and instability across the entire Northeast towards Sunday/Monday.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
166. TheDawnAwakening
11:04 PM GMT on December 03, 2010
Well thanks for the clarification Blizz. How about Cape Cod, MA? Will we get into the snow action at all?
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3564
165. originalLT
11:02 PM GMT on December 03, 2010
Thanks Blizz, I knew you'd have the answer. I didn't even expect that it might be a highway number. Thought for sure it was a compass direction which happpens to be basically NW from over the Great Lakes.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7081
164. Zachary Labe
10:51 PM GMT on December 03, 2010
Actually, the streamer is nicknamed a 322 streamer, because it parallels along a highway 322/22 in central Pennsylvania from Du Bois to State College to Lewistown to Harrisburg. The band forms with a long northwest fetch.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
163. originalLT
10:50 PM GMT on December 03, 2010
Pittsburgnurse, I think that number, 322, designates a compass direction, basically winds coming in from the NW. Blizz and others might be able to explain it better.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7081
162. TheDawnAwakening
10:48 PM GMT on December 03, 2010
The number 322 is wind direction on a compass, roughly a NW to NNW wind direction.

Also Cape Cod, MA could get an OES event Mon night into Tues morning. However it is rare to get a consistent 230-240 band to develop and produce heavy snows.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3564
161. pittsburghnurse
10:21 PM GMT on December 03, 2010
what is a 322 streamer? What does the number designate?
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
160. Snowlover2010
9:52 PM GMT on December 03, 2010
Squall came through here and got a fresh dusting of snow. Good 30min of snow.
Member Since: January 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1003
159. TheRasberryPatch
9:39 PM GMT on December 03, 2010
Thanks Blizz. I guess with technology we get better observations and forecasts. I didn't really think about that.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6234
158. Zachary Labe
9:35 PM GMT on December 03, 2010
TheRasberryPatch- These streamers are by chance just like any lake effect snow. But they really are more common than most people think. Many of those days years ago with flurries and snow showers perhaps amounting to C-1in were caused by these long bands. We just happen to be in an area that favors banding in long fetch situations. With more advanced radar and modeling, high resolution models are becoming very accurate in highlighting the potential for these bands nearly 1-3 days out instead of only a few hours out like a few years ago. Wind direction is important, but we have to moisture to get these bands. The odds of an exact 322 bands Sunday and then again Monday night are slim, but the potential is definitely there.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
157. TheRasberryPatch
9:31 PM GMT on December 03, 2010
just curious Blizz - how can they come up with those scenarios? and did they have this streamer in the models on Wednesday? Not being a meteorologist, I just thought these streamers were kind of by chance.

I see some yellows in that radar
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6234
156. Zachary Labe
9:15 PM GMT on December 03, 2010
And then another even strong lake effect snow band is possible Monday night...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
155. TheDawnAwakening
9:14 PM GMT on December 03, 2010
Blizzard, that is a great 322 band setting up from Huron to Erie, I mean anyone downwind of the that band in both lakes will get clobbered with heavy snows. Just imagine the snowfall rates with that band. I hope we can actually get some snow showers here on Cape Cod, MA. NAM really wants to bring a SW wind OES event into Cape Cod, MA, but the GFS is more west-southwest.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3564
154. TheRasberryPatch
9:10 PM GMT on December 03, 2010
I've even seen some light flurries with broken clouds here. I look your way Blizz and the clouds are nice and grayish blue and solid.

When Sunday?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6234
153. TheDawnAwakening
9:04 PM GMT on December 03, 2010
18z NAM has an interesting prospect showing up from Mon night into Tue morning for Cape Cod, MA. Possible SW wind OES event shaping up as winds align from the surface to 500mb from the WSW or SW. However GFS shows more of a westerly component while the NAM shows more of a southwesterly component and potential 850mb temperatures dropping to around -9C to -12C in this time frame. Also oceanic surface temperatures are probably around 12-14C right now to the south of Cape Cod and the Islands. So delta Ts will be able to approach 20C. SOmething to keep an eye on and chances are there will be too much a westerly component or it will be too warm.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3564
152. Zachary Labe
9:02 PM GMT on December 03, 2010
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
I noticed the radar Blizz...looks like 322 streamers coming...It is actually intensifying as it gets closer to you, Blizz

still using WGAL radar for snow, Blizz?

Just started lightly flurrying here. That radar is brilliant; absolutely no virga. It's accuracy is to the exact less than a mile it would seem. There is actually an impressive squall just south of State College moving southeast. It that holds up it could drop a coating to one inch. By the way the NAM really is indicating a 322 band setting up Sunday...

Simulate radar for Sunday.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
151. TheRasberryPatch
8:46 PM GMT on December 03, 2010
I noticed the radar Blizz...looks like 322 streamers coming...It is actually intensifying as it gets closer to you, Blizz

still using WGAL radar for snow, Blizz?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6234
150. TheDawnAwakening
8:19 PM GMT on December 03, 2010
I like where the PV is located in the 8-10 day time period of the 12z EURO, core of the trough is over the Apps.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3564
149. originalLT
8:07 PM GMT on December 03, 2010
Thanks Blizz, looking foreward to your new blog.LT
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7081
148. Zachary Labe
8:01 PM GMT on December 03, 2010
Some snow showers moving into the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Snow flurries and even snow showers will be likely in many areas the next 5 days or so. Some guidance even suggests organized 322 banding towards Sunday (12z NAM). A brief coating to one inch of snow is possible in areas that receive squalls. Towards the Pennsylvania/Maryland lake effect snow belts; five day totals of 3-6in are likely. I wouldn't be surprised in some of the upslope regions of the Laurel Highlands to see 10in or so of snow over the next week with the heaviest being Saturday night and Sunday. I will have more on this with a new blog this weekend.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
147. originalLT
7:55 PM GMT on December 03, 2010
Well Henry posted at 2:08PM this afternoon, and is still "sticking to his guns" about an East Coast Snow storm for "mid-month". We'll see, he's got to be right, once in a while!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7081
146. TheDawnAwakening
4:18 PM GMT on December 03, 2010
darn, why does Henry do these things?

Anyways the clipper looks like a foregone conclusion that it will have no immediate impacts on Cape Cod, MA and SNE. I guess we have to wait until next weekend for our snowstorm. 00z EURO is too warm for snow at this time.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3564
145. PalmyraPunishment
3:56 PM GMT on December 03, 2010
Margusity has busted out the "Big Daddy" talk already. Supposed to have an update on "Big Daddy" after the 12Z runs.

So whatever storm people are looking at that may be something more than a drizzle... abandon post.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
140. Zachary Labe
1:08 PM GMT on December 03, 2010
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
wow Blizz - that cold of an outbreak, huh. any lows below 20F? or stay in the 20's? isn't that how things play out....you get the cold air, but no precipitation to go with it

I think lows will be possibly in the teens by next weekend as the core of the cold air moves through. I also think this coming week highs will be colder than forecast and staying generally in the lower 30s.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
139. goofyrider
3:42 AM GMT on December 03, 2010
40.15N, 74.02W
Evening All
P :  for the last six months the area east of the GSP +/- between  Bay Head and Long Branch has had diminished precip, see the drought records.  It seemed that the radar was also showing greater precip than we observed.  What was unusual was that these storms were training NNE so you might expect to see less variability between the shore and inland areas.
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2650
138. tropicfreak
3:07 AM GMT on December 03, 2010
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6814
137. TheRasberryPatch
3:04 AM GMT on December 03, 2010
wow Blizz - that cold of an outbreak, huh. any lows below 20F? or stay in the 20's? isn't that how things play out....you get the cold air, but no precipitation to go with it
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6234

Viewing: 187 - 137

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4Blog Index

Top of Page

About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Student; Central PA SKYWARN Storm Spotter; American Meteorological Society Member; PA CoCoRaHS Branch Member

Personal Weather Stations

Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

About Personal Weather Stations