Unsettled Thanksgiving Week Ahead...

By: Zachary Labe , 10:58 PM GMT on November 20, 2010

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"Afternoon Thoughts" (Updated 11/20)
"Stopping by Woods on a Snowy Evening"
Whose woods these are I think I know.
His house is in the village, though;
He will not see me stopping here
To watch his woods fill up with snow.

My little horse must think it queer 5
To stop without a farmhouse near
Between the woods and frozen lake
The darkest evening of the year.

He gives his harness bells a shake
To ask if there is some mistake. 10
The only other sounds the sweep
Of easy wind and downy flake.

The woods are lovely, dark, and deep,
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep, 15
And miles to go before I sleep.
~Robert Frost

Robert Frost remains one of my favorite poets to read for the exactly simplicity of the poem. Above the speaker is in fact walking through woods draped in a fresh cover of snow that remains falling. And the speaker asks what is a fare representation of the woods. Do they represent inner human darkness or a chance of opportunity into the unknown? We have all likely be in an instance late in the evening, either driving or walking, through a heavily wooded region. And while the nearest of human civilization seems like a world away, the woods act as a boundary. While they seem dark and evil, they represent an opportunity to take a chance. "The woods are lovely, dark, and deep." Society would typically not authorize a walk through the woods late at night due to fear of human evil (danger), but they represent a mystery that wants to be explored. And as the speaker is looking into the dark woods, the mystery speaks grace of a new opportunity, a new chance, a new beginning. And the final stanza of the poem shows the speaker is at bliss, "And miles to go before I sleep."

The poem is a fantastic metaphor for many challenges faced in life. Society condemns the unknown challenge for fear of darkness. What is unknown to many, is automatically bad. But new, offers the chance for an opportunity. Nature is the only true untouched frontier from human evil. Many of Frost's poems have been corresponded with choral music. For those who have been reading my blog, I am a member of one of the top five high school choirs nationwide. Choral music is an art form just like any other music. Here is a fantastic version of the poem by Eric Whitacre...

Unfortunately copywrite laws from the Frost foundation caused Eric Whitacre to change the lyrics to the popular poem "Sleep" and this is one of the only recordings left of the original lyrics.

"Current Surface Plot"

(Courtesy of HPC)

"Regional Radar"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"Regional Advisories"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Forecast Discussion"(Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware)(Updated 11/20)
A strong 1032mb high pressure will begin to depart the Northeast on Sunday after the weak cold front passage Saturday night. H85 thermals are not terribly cold for Sunday, but with a high pressure in Quebec, the flow will be out of the north. Surface high temperatures will be cold regionwide and around 5-7F below normal. Mid 40s are likely for much of the region below 1000ft, with highs in the lower 40s for the higher elevations. Towards Maryland and Delaware highs will adjust into the upper 40s and possibly lower 50s along the Chesapeake and Delaware Bay. Sunshine will be regionwide on Sunday with only a few stratocumulus over western Pennsylvania. By Sunday night the flow will shift out of the east with a strong maritime influence. GFS/NAM prognostics indicate even some light 0.01-0.03in QPF over parts of eastern Pennsylvania as there is the potential for a bit of drizzle under low stratus that will form overnight. BUFKIT fog hodographs for KMDT indicate no change in vertical humidity, probably indicating some low ceilings to form over eastern Pennsylvania Sunday night below 500ft accompanied by drizzle. Some areas may receive fog from the marine layer, but I think it will generally be stratus dominated. Lows will be in the low 40s for eastern areas with lower 30s over western areas as they will be under clear to only partly cloudy skies. A 1004mb low pressure will circulate up through the Northern Plains causing quite a snow storm over the Western United States. By Monday this will drag a weakening cold front towards the western portions of the Northeast. This cold front will be moisture starved with only less than a tenth of an inch of QPF over extreme northwestern Pennsylvania. Although the low stratus and drizzle may linger into midday Monday for eastern areas. Highs on Monday will be well above normal and up to near 60F for areas in southern Delaware/Maryland. Elsewhere highs in the 50s are likely. Another 1000mb low will track up the Great Lakes with a bit stronger of a cold front advancing towards the region by Tuesday night. Light rain is possible into western Pennsylvania by Tuesday late morning. H85 thermals will increase to +10C by Tuesday night/early Wednesday as the southwest flow increases ahead of the cold front. The storm system will be moisture starved so QPF with the frontal passage on Wednesday will be around .25-.50in favoring western areas. Areas in the east may be hard pressed to see .1in.

The air mass behind this cold front is not much cooler as the flow quickly shifts to the southwest ahead of yet another 1000mb low moving up through the UP of Michigan. With no high pressure to the north, little cold air damming will occur with the overunning precipitation on Thursday, although high temperatures may be a tad on the cool side. The GFS and ECMWF differ on their representation of this third system with the recent operational GFS keeping the heavier 0.5in+ QPF to the south of the Mason-Dixon line with the H85 0C line right around the NY/PA border. I will have more on this storm system throughout the week, although I think it will be predominately rain for all areas. Also I do not think the cold air catches up with the precipitation, so it will probably not be a rain changing to snow situation. Finally the much advertised cold air mass enters the region on Friday with H85s falling below -5C as the flow turns anticyclonic with lake effect snow showers. Total weekly QPF for western areas in the northern Middle Atlantic will likely be around 1.0in with eastern areas less than 0.25in. Southern areas may do well though with the overrunning Thanksgiving rain with weekly rain totals for those areas around 0.50in. Highs will be above normal by 5F or so much of the week after Sunday through about Wednesday. Lows will also be mild under cloud cover much of the week as the weather will be unsettled.

"Regional Satellite"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Current Water Vapor Loop"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Lake Effect Snow Conditions" (Updated 11/20)
The lake effect snow machine will begin to get cranking by the end of this upcoming week as a sharp anticyclonic northwest flow dominates the Northeast. Looking at BUFKIT GFS profiles, the wind vectors appear to be 20-30 knots out of around 320-325 degrees on Friday shifting to a more relaxed 290-300 degree flow as drier air mixes into the region. The 980mb low will continue to deepen near Newfoundland after tracking the Great Lakes earlier in the week. The cold front will push through early Friday accompanied by a weak shortwave enhancing orographic and lake effect snow showers. Directional shear will limit organization of lake effect snow bands and the north-northwest flow will keep snow showers mainly across northern Pennsylvania up through much of western New York State. -20 Omega growth is currently advertised by GFS BUFKIT for KERI near the surface. Moisture will be readily available aloft for the short period of early Friday through Friday evening. Orographic lift will help aid in snow showers over western Pennsylvania into the Laurel Highlands. H85 thermals will drop to near -10C with 1000-500mb thicknesses nearing sub 530dm for much of the Northeast. Overall not really expecting too much lake effect snow accumulation due to short lived available 700mb moisture and directional shear aloft. But many locations from western Maryland up through western and northern Pennsylvania may see a coating up to one inch. Current GFS QPF prognostics show a decent snow shower coverage early Friday afternoon over the region. Even a few flurries, light snow showers may move just downwind of the Appalachians. 2m boundary layer temperatures will be at or below freezing for most all of the lake effect snow belt regions with other locations at 40F or below. A few patchy 1-3in snow amounts are possible over the Laurel Highlands in Cambria and Somerset Counties and also up across McKean, Crawford, Mercer, Erie, and Warren Counties. A patchy C-1in is possible also in northeastern Pennsylvania in Wayne County and down into the Poconos in Carbon County. Model guidance suggests the 320 degree flow may favor a lake effect streamer off of Ontario down through Binghamton and northeastern Pennsylvania towards Saturday as the shear relaxes a bit, but dry air moves in. Usually this allows for the snow shower activity to progress from cellular to linear before relaxing. This lake effect snow event will not favor snows into Buffalo or Cleveland, but more for the western New York plateau down through northern Pennsylvania. Finally of one last note, the 11/20/2010 18z GFS shows an interesting snow event for northern New England as a shortwave progresses just north of New Hampshire and Vermont. QPF prognostics over well over .5in of upslope precipitation allowing for a possible large upslope/orographic snow event for those typical areas in northern upstate New York, northern Vermont, and northern New Hampshire. This period would be around Saturday (just something to keep an eye on for those areas).

"Current Great Lakes Water Temperatures"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Long Term Outlook" (Updated 11/20)'
A quick look a global teleconnections shows an obvious picture a colder than normal air mass over the eastern United States. The NAO, which has hovered neutral to negative since the first week of October, will take a sharp dive to near -3. The PNA, currently at -2, will rise back to near neutral encouraging a bit of ridging over the western United States. The stark negative EPO will signal the transition of a cold air mass currently over northern Canada to come sweeping down into the contiguous United States. The cold air mass is evident by the near -5 AO. While the teleconnections are simply indicators of averages for positions of troughs and ridges, they do not tell the entire story. The position of the Polar Vortex is critical near Alaska. The current Great Lakes cutter this week will be the new acting PV by the end of the week as it moves upstream. Its position is still up in the air, but will likely be over central northern Canada. When the PV is located over Alaska (typical in La Ninas) then often very warm air floods areas east of the Mississippi River with the cold displaced to the west. Operational forecast models are quite different in the long range, with the ECMWF featured a transient cool air mass quickly retreating by the 29th or 30th of November. The GFS on the other hands installs the cold prolonging well into early December. It is not a matter of which model is correct.

While forecast computer models play a critical role in long term forecasting, they are not always accurate. Looking at the players on the field with a neutral PNA and starkly west-based negative NAO combining with a negative PDO and weak solar regime, I think the pattern will lead itself to be volatile. I think we will see a period of well below normal temperatures as a -2SD trough enters the region right after Thanksgiving. I would forecast highs at being a fare 10-15F below normal accompanied under sharp cyclonic flow. This will last for a few days into the end of November. By the 30th or so, the core of cold air (sub 525dm 1000-500mb thicknesses) will be exiting. Towards the first week of December cooler air will linger with means zero to a few degrees below normal for high temperatures. This will last through at least the 8th or so of December, possibly a bit longer before the negative NAO retreats and the MJO begins to pulse into phases 3/4. None the less, this is not an arctic intrusion and talk of the coldest November Outbreak in just under a decade will not verify. This is some seasonal cold air that is often typical around Thanksgiving. What remains a bit more important for winter-lovers is the active Pacific. We are being dominated by a positive AMO and tight wavelengths in the Pacific advising a potentially stormy period as we arrive in early December. Analogs produce a few rain/snow storm chances during the first week of the month. I had been calling for the first accumulating snow for inland locations north of Baltimore within the first ten days after Thanksgiving and that still remains on the table. The operational 12z GFS still shows a few storm chances into the beginning of December. Active wavelength periods are Dec 2-3 and/or 5-6 so keep them in the back of your mind. Snow is not too far away. There is the potential for this pattern to go quite sour in its initial forecast. While I do not think there is any likelihood of this verifying colder than what I am predicting, there is the potential for several days of above normal temperatures if storms track to our west. The operational ECMWF shows a 240hr event with a inland runner/miller B redeveloper. Still though, this floods the east with warmer air before it redevelops. If we do not get the 50/50 low in a favorable location, then I think this pattern will take a more Nina approach. Overall this period after Thanksgiving cold weather will underperform compared to early forecasts.

"Current NAO and PNA Predictions"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Anchorage, Alaska Tower Cam"

*Back due to popular demand!

"Monthly Temperature/Precipitation Outlook"(November)(Updated 10/23)
I think I am going to trend a bit on the mild side for the upcoming November despite interesting teleconnections. Mean 500mb guidance from the past week show a bit a southeast ridge beginning to flex its muscle into the southern Middle Atlantic. Latest 10/23/10 0utc GFS 10-14day 500mb mean actually supports this continuing in that range with a 588dm ridge over the southeast. Right now the polar vortex is just north of Alaska by about 200mi, which is good for now. But guidance suggests this may sink southward towards November. This tends to favor ridging over the east coast and troughing over the western United States up through Alaska and the Canadian Rockies. But current ensemble runs indicate a negative NAO to open up November. There will likely be an eastern cool pattern during the first week of November. The La Nina continues to show that it is already one of the strongest La Ninas on record. But it is encouraging to see little temperature drops in Nina 3.4 SSTs. For those looking for an early season snowstorm this year, a few encouraging signs can be found in the cryosphere. Levels are at around normal values, which are actually higher than the previous few years. Siberian snow cover has shown impressive gains in the last two weeks and has reached above normal levels. Also North America snow levels have increased in northern Canada and Alaska courtesy of the trough moving through and associated low presssure system. None the less, I believe typical La Nina conditions will dominate November's weather with a southeast ridge. But cooler weather may return towards the end of the month with perhaps the first inland snowfall in this time period around or just after Thanksgiving. We shall see how those wavelengths turn out. Precipitation chances are right around normal for all areas. The farther south one goes in the Middle Atlantic will dictate how anomalous the warmth is this month as weak troughing from the negative NAO may be enough to save some areas in Pennsylvania from the warmth.

"Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from Climate Prediction Center for next 30 days"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

-Winter Outlook 2010-2011...Link.

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2010-2011 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 0in
Monthly Total (November)- Trace
Seasonal Total- Trace
Winter Weather Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 0

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 38.7F
Lowest Low Temperature- 20.8F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
None...

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229. goofyrider
11:50 PM GMT on November 29, 2010
P 451

Are the the games on turf, frozen turf or mud?

My first game was watching a Philco 8 in screen with Bears and Browns in a snow storm with mud everywhere.



Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2728
228. SilverShipsofAndilar
8:22 PM GMT on November 29, 2010
Forecasts are on-again/off-again with chances for snow on Wednesday.
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
227. originalLT
8:07 PM GMT on November 29, 2010
I'm always a bit leary of map predictions 7 days out, but to quote an old Beach Boys song, "wouldn't it be nice..."! My morning low was 25.8F, the lowest so far for me.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7417
226. Zachary Labe
8:04 PM GMT on November 29, 2010
bwi- Yea, Baltimore does about 3-6in verbatum on the 12z ECMWF. Miller B's typically do not favor your area, but there are several exceptions. At least it is a very legitimate threat to track!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15088
225. bwi
8:02 PM GMT on November 29, 2010
Good afternoon. I just took a look at the 12z ECMWF, and to my (very) untrained eye, the December 5 system seems to be in a pretty good place for us in DC-Baltimore area to get snow. Nice compact low pressure cutting straight across the midwest and just south of our area? 12z GFS seems a little more ragged looking -- maybe a better setup for New England?

Either way, looking forward to a chance of snow. Discovered over the holiday that my new bike tires work great in snow. (We were in Canada, with about 3cm of fresh snow on Saturday morning.)
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
224. Zachary Labe
7:59 PM GMT on November 29, 2010
Quoting P451:


I'm hoping the Dec 6 Jets-Pats game is in a full on blizzard. Huge game in epic conditions? Why not...

Well the ECMWF grants your wish on the 6th...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15088
221. johnbluedog69
7:48 PM GMT on November 29, 2010
Quoting PalmyraPunishment:




I actually think drivers in South-Central Pennsylvania have dumbed down to where rain is now a more life threatening travel situation than ice and snow. Congratulations, morons.

We don't calls em pennsylvidiots fer nuthin PP
Member Since: October 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 437
220. Zachary Labe
7:44 PM GMT on November 29, 2010
Quoting originalLT:
Looks like the Christmas Tree lighting in Rockerfeller Center in NYC tomorrow evening could be a soggy affair. I believe it takes place between 7-9PM.

Ugh, yea it really could be a mess. At least they will avoid the stronger winds possible later that night.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15088
219. PalmyraPunishment
7:43 PM GMT on November 29, 2010
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore would be fun to watch in the snow.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
218. originalLT
7:42 PM GMT on November 29, 2010
Looks like the Christmas Tree lighting in Rockerfeller Center in NYC tomorrow evening could be a soggy affair. I believe it takes place between 7-9PM.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7417
217. TheRasberryPatch
7:41 PM GMT on November 29, 2010
P451 - I wasn't expecting any cancellations. I was just wondering how the weather will affect the games being played. There might not be that many games on the East Coast. The two biggest games of the weekend are on the East Coast, though
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
216. PalmyraPunishment
7:35 PM GMT on November 29, 2010
Quoting Blizzard92:
PalmyraPunishment- I would guess the typical places flood like good ol' Cameron Street in Harrisburg. You will probably some idiot on the ABC27 that night of getting stuck trying to drive through one of those flood prone intersections on that street.


The off-ramp onto 2nd from I-83 is another nice floodzone, it seems. I just can't wait for the commute. Lately even a drizzle seems to create a disaster on the highways.

I actually think drivers in South-Central Pennsylvania have dumbed down to where rain is now a more life threatening travel situation than ice and snow. Congratulations, morons.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
214. Zachary Labe
7:31 PM GMT on November 29, 2010
PalmyraPunishment- I would guess the typical places flood like good ol' Cameron Street in Harrisburg. You will probably some idiot on the ABC27 that night of getting stuck trying to drive through one of those flood prone intersections on that street.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15088
212. PalmyraPunishment
7:18 PM GMT on November 29, 2010
Yay. Harrisburg becomes Atlantis tomorrow.

The big losers, hunters.

Flood Watch:

Issued at: 1:23 PM EST 11/29/10, expires at: 1:30 PM EST 11/30/10

Flood Watch In effect from Tuesday evening through Wednesday Evening,
The NWS in state college has issued a
Flood watch for a portion of central Pennsylvania, Including the following areas, Adams, Bedford, Blair, Cambria, cameron, Clearfield, Columbia, Cumberland, Dauphin, Elk, franklin, Fulton, Huntingdon, Juniata, Lancaster, lebanon, Mckean, Mifflin, Montour, Northern Centre, northern clinton, Northern Lycoming, Northumberland, perry, Potter, Schuylkill, Snyder, Somerset, Southern centre, Southern Clinton, Southern Lycoming, Sullivan, tioga, Union, Warren And York.

From Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening.
A deep storm system will move through the great lakes Tuesday, While A New storm forms on its trailing front over the southeastern united states.

The new storm will move up the east coast Tuesday night and Wednesday bringing widespread heavy rain to the region.

Rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches, With Locally Higher amounts could cause streams and creeks to overflow their banks, Later Tuesday into Wednesday.

Precautionary/preparedness actions,
A flood watch means there is a potential for flooding on Streams, Creeks, Poor Drainage, Urban And Low-lying areas based on current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
211. Zachary Labe
7:09 PM GMT on November 29, 2010
Lots of weather fun coming up including the cold front chugging eastward tomorrow and Wednesday. I am working on my new blog!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15088
210. Drakoen
7:07 PM GMT on November 29, 2010
ECMWF 12z long range continues to show the Four Corners Region 500mb shortwave trough trying to push eastward across the Southern Plains and amplify as it does so. It looks like the ECMWF's southwest bias gives it trouble with progression when trying to phase with the northern stream energy with the result being a a large region of strongly below average heights over the south. Gives the south one heck of a snowstorm as a result of the suppression as Miller A cyclogensis intiates in the GOM.

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29890
209. Zachary Labe
7:04 PM GMT on November 29, 2010
Drakoen- Yep, those are liquid amounts. The GFS seems to shear this clipper apart too much. I am definitely interested in this time frame. The funny thing is, it is hard pressed to find major winter snow storms in December for the east coast including DCA under a moderate La Nina. The snow is certainly not supported by climatology odds. Yet, as we have seen before, the Atlantic can create its own games.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15088
208. Drakoen
6:59 PM GMT on November 29, 2010
Quoting Blizzard92:
Drakoen- Eh, I just get QPF totals from a few meteorologists that have access. I will try to post them when I can. DCA was near .75in for this ECMWF run and BOS over 1in.


Liquid equiv?

Looks like both the ECMWF and the GGEM tilt the trough slightly negative over Virginia. If the trough could tilt negative a bit earlier you guys would really be in for a treat especially those just west of the I-95 corridor. Right now it looks like the inland areas really get slammed. The ECMWF is faster than the GGEM, btu more or less have the same track. The GFS 12z doesn't really do much with the clipper system so its ECMWF and GGEM vs. GFS.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29890
207. Zachary Labe
6:54 PM GMT on November 29, 2010
Drakoen- Eh, I just get QPF totals from a few meteorologists that have access. I will try to post them when I can. DCA was near .75in for this ECMWF run and BOS over 1in.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15088
206. Drakoen
6:50 PM GMT on November 29, 2010
Quoting Blizzard92:
Drakoen- 12z runs have definitely favored an increasing amplification in this clipper for December 5. Very interesting to say the least. Hey, how did you fair snow wise the other day? QPF on ECMWF shows about 4-8in for DCA, 2-4in for eastern half of Pennsylvania, with a major snowstorm for New England as it bombs out.


Didn't get any snow here unfortunately. The 850mb frontogenesis maxima stayed just south of me, so the cold air came in right after the precip ended. Counties to the west back around Louisville and Cincinnati saw some as well as the counties to the south in Kentucky and the mountainous regions of WV.

I'm back in Tallahassee now until the 9th when I go back to WV. Looks like some action could stir up around that time frame.

On another note, what website are you using to see the ECMWF precip? Assuming it is paid
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29890
205. Zachary Labe
6:41 PM GMT on November 29, 2010
Drakoen- 12z runs have definitely favored an increasing amplification in this clipper for December 5. Very interesting to say the least. Hey, how did you fair snow wise the other day? QPF on ECMWF shows about 4-8in for DCA, 2-4in for eastern half of Pennsylvania, with a major snowstorm for New England as it bombs out.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15088
204. Drakoen
6:37 PM GMT on November 29, 2010
12z Euro looking good with the amplification of that clipper system moving through the Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic States to deliver a decent snow storm as it exist off-shore.


Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29890
203. goofyrider
4:38 PM GMT on November 29, 2010
Morn P

with traffic the area south of MM 105 loses a lane and the speed drops from 65 to 55 so it gets a little hairy
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2728
202. SilverShipsofAndilar
4:05 PM GMT on November 29, 2010
Quoting PalmyraPunishment:


Leslie Nielsen is dead? Surely you can't be serious...


I am serious . . . And don't call me "Shirley."
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
201. PalmyraPunishment
3:51 PM GMT on November 29, 2010
Quoting zotty:
A moment of silence please for the late great Leslie Nielsen. Enrico Pallazzo, you will be missed


Leslie Nielsen is dead? Surely you can't be serious...
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
200. goofyrider
3:40 PM GMT on November 29, 2010
Morning

The boardwalk was frozen this am. Moisture from the waves settles on the boards and freezes. Temps dropped to below 30 deg f this morning.

Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2728
199. zotty
3:39 PM GMT on November 29, 2010
had first real frost/freeze of the year this morning...

PP- nice to see you are truly back

A moment of silence please for the late great Leslie Nielsen. Enrico Pallazzo, you will be missed
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 729
198. Zachary Labe
3:17 PM GMT on November 29, 2010
Quoting PalmyraPunishment:
I saw some snow on Saturday morning as well down here in Camp Hill. It was also very very cold when the wind was blowing that day as I spent most of the afternoon outside working on the Blazer. Not fun times.

I guess with a storm to keep an eye on for the weekend it's time to begin dusting off the conga drums, right?

The ECMWF has some light snow for the 5th of December for our area with probably 1-3in for DCA. But the main storm system, which is quite impressive on some prognostics would be the 7-9th time frame.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15088
197. PalmyraPunishment
2:55 PM GMT on November 29, 2010
I saw some snow on Saturday morning as well down here in Camp Hill. It was also very very cold when the wind was blowing that day as I spent most of the afternoon outside working on the Blazer. Not fun times.

I guess with a storm to keep an eye on for the weekend it's time to begin dusting off the conga drums, right?
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
196. shipweather
2:45 PM GMT on November 29, 2010
23.6 here according to the Ship Weather Department website and data. Very cold.

We also had flurries here for a time Saturday afternoon. (Just thought I'd report that).
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
195. Zachary Labe
2:25 PM GMT on November 29, 2010
Coldest morning of the year so far... 20.8F. I might try to get a new blog out today.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15088
194. PalmyraPunishment
2:07 PM GMT on November 29, 2010
Quoting pittsburghnurse:


unless I'm at a ski resort sipping on a hot cocoa in front of a cozy fire with a hot snow bunny and no where to go for at least a week.


Fixed this quote to suit me, and I'll take this, for 500, Alex.
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
193. TheRasberryPatch
1:50 PM GMT on November 29, 2010
I had my lowest of the season this morning. 23F with heavy frost. finally some temps in the 20's.

December 5th is on a Sunday. I wonder what that will do to NFL games if that storm comes up the coast?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
189. cchamp6
11:05 AM GMT on November 29, 2010
17.7 and still falling.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1639
188. Drakoen
5:51 AM GMT on November 29, 2010
GFS 00z. Huge Mid-Atlantic Snow Storm


ECMWF 00z:


Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29890
187. Zachary Labe
1:48 AM GMT on November 29, 2010
Quoting P451:


You win. Those pics from last year. WOW!


Meanwhile, I need an explanation. It's been bothering me for years.

And it happened again right now.

34.5F.
Cars, roofs, lawn.... dusted white with frozen... uh... frost?

How does this happen?


Last time I checked.... that is not the freezing point. And, Yes, I trust the device.

I know of radiational cooling. Yet, this is a bit extreme.


Any ideas?


The metal objects loose heat faster allowing them to be colder than the air forming frost. As for the lawn, it is lower therefore having the absolutely coldest temperatures. On radiational cooling nights the higher up one goes the environmental lapse rate actually increasing per elevation. So on these types of the nights, metal objects and low lying objects will be the first too loose their heat.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15088
186. Mason803
1:39 AM GMT on November 29, 2010
Quoting Blizzard92:
Going to be a cold one for me tonight; already 28.3F.


Yep, currently 26f here though dewpoint isn't as low as yesterday. High today was 46f with a peak wind gust of 18 @ 320 degrees


p451 thanks! Last winter was a winter to remember and I probally took hundreds of pictures
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
184. cchamp6
1:25 AM GMT on November 29, 2010
Just noticed it has dropped to 25 already here Blizz. The ground has not been thawing in the shady areas this past weekend. High of 41 here today.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1639
183. Zachary Labe
1:22 AM GMT on November 29, 2010
Going to be a cold one for me tonight; already 28.3F.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15088
182. upweatherdog
10:41 PM GMT on November 28, 2010
Sigh.....another storm passes to my west. Only 6 inches of snow on the ground here and we need more! Usually we have a foot of snow by now. I wonder if the pattern change ahead will allow for more storms to track across the central Great Lakes, bringing Michigan more snow instead of Minnesota. However it seems the +PNA/-NAO change ahead would lead to the storms moving EAST of Michigan. Hope this isn't one of those starts to Winter here where the storms are deflected to the east and west of Michigan.
Member Since: October 14, 2007 Posts: 173 Comments: 1372
181. TheF1Man
9:54 PM GMT on November 28, 2010
Quoting cchamp6:


Hmmmm. I dont like that. That sounds like last winter when a bunch of people to my south. (Wont mention any names) Got a whole bunch of my snow. I live in New England. It is suppose to snow alot here. Stop taking my snow.



cchamp I live in CT and I did not like last winter either. Every storm went right to my south...it was cruel I tell ya.
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
180. cchamp6
8:00 PM GMT on November 28, 2010
Question. I want to install an outdoor weather cam to transmit over the internet. Where is a good place to buy? How much? How does it connect to internet? Basically need to know how, what, why, when and where? Thanks.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1639
179. cchamp6
7:09 PM GMT on November 28, 2010
Quoting Blizzard92:
cchamp6- Yep, chances of snow for your too. Interestingly enough the models are showing the block being strong enough to suppress storms to your south. But I think the models are overestimating the block.

Mason803- Wow, great picture! Only 27F here this morning as my winds decoupled on an hour before sunrise.


Hmmmm. I dont like that. That sounds like last winter when a bunch of people to my south. (Wont mention any names) Got a whole bunch of my snow. I live in New England. It is suppose to snow alot here. Stop taking my snow.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1639

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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