Changing Weather Pattern...

By: Zachary Labe , 6:31 PM GMT on November 14, 2010

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A relatively quiet weather week is in store for much of the northern Middle Atlantic. Midweek will allow for some needed rainfall across Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware as low pressure treks up through Ohio. This will put all of the northern Middle Atlantic in the warm sector with moderate rainfall. QPF estimates are slightly above 0.50in for all areas. This low will bring down the first of several cold fronts enhancing a trough over the eastern seaboard by the 19th/20th of November.

GFS ensembles remain relatively consistent for the 18th-21st time frame for below normal temperatures. Looking at surface normal highs for this time of year for KMDT ranges around 51-54F. GFS prognostics indicate highs in the mid to upper 40s for this time frame. This puts surface highs about 3-5F below normal during this period, so nothing too unusual. As far as precipitation chances, guidance has showed a weak 850hPa wave moving just south of Pennsylvania in the form of an Alberta Clipper. At this time, it appears it will remain very weak with little moisture aloft in the 700mb layer. But it does bare watching for the potential for a few rain/snow showers over much of the Middle Atlantic. Accuracy and consistently dramatically declines after the 21st of November. Teleconnections begin to show an unsual signal with a starckly negative NAO and negative PNA.

Analogs show a negative PNA and negative NAO correlate to well below normal temperatures for the central northern United States through the northern Great Lakes and through New England. Throw in the ENSO status of a moderate La Nina and the analog reanalysis shows a southeast ridge with again very cold air in the extreme northern parts of the United States. This puts a battleground regions towards the Ohio Valley and Middle Atlantic. The blocking in the north Atlantic is quite impressive, but is a bit off-centered for an ideal position. It will be slightly east-based and this has been highly supported by the operational GFS for the last 5-7 days or so. The NAO though is not as strong a correlation for the eastern United States weathern patterns in November. The Pacific is more important. And while the EPO will go sharply negative drawing very cold air into North America, the negative PNA will counter-act keeping some of this in Canada. At this point the chaos pattern is highly volatile and long range operational models remain uncertain. It does appear after the first trough, that a storm system will work up through the Great Lakes ahead of the first of the -2SD troughs around the 22nd-24th of November. This will put the eastern seaboard in the warm sector allowing for the period to average above normal in the temperature department and likely accompanied by some amount of rainfall during the frontal passage. After this front, the colder air bottled up in Canada and the northern Great Lakes will likely become a bit more permeable and surge southward even reaching the Middle Atlantic. The period around Thanksgiving is likely to be relatively cold across the entire northern half of the United States.

In fact the long term GFS around the 28th of November shows an impressive sub 510dm 1000-500mb thickness with a core of cold air centered over Pennsylvania. Keep in mind with the latest resolution upgrages, the long term GFS cold bias has been eliminated this year. After this cold air anomaly, the PNA should begin to rise along with the NAO slightly as the cold air shoots back up into Canada. While it is not encouraging to see a large southeast ridge despite an impressive upstream blocking orientation, at least snow cover will continue to build in Canada helping in the long run.

Snow cover for the most part is above normal in the northern hempisphere with below normal areas focused on western Canada. This will likely fill in towards that region as a core of cold air enters the region towards the 22nd-24th of November. Now that I mapped out much of the rest of November, what does this all mean? Well many of these signals actually could be noted following the Indian Ocean MJO signals. After a large MJO phase 4/5 pulse in the middle to end of October associated with the eastern US cold spell, the MJO has relaxed a bit with little forcing other than a quick pulse to phase 8 as illustrated by the HIRES GFS.

Phase 8 for November typically results as noted above in above normal temperatures. This can be correlated to the current weather pattern.

Many signals are still highlighting a blocky pattern as we enter December and I still like my forecast for a colder than normal December. As for snow chances, I do not see any immediate threats, although next Friday's clipper bares watching. In any case we first need to get the cold air before thinking about snow. I do think most all areas will see at least a trace of snow by the month's end. Next weekend I will be back to posting a normal weekly weather blog with all of the typical maps and seven day forecast. For this blog I just wanted to highlight the upcoming chaotic and changing weather pattern. November will likely be the first below normal temperature month in nearly six months across Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware. Keep in mind this past week's warm highs temperatures were balanced with well below normal lows due to the dry air mass.

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2010-2011 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 0in
Monthly Total (November)- 0in
Seasonal Total- 0in
Winter Weather Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 0

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 49.7F
Lowest Low Temperature- 24.9F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
None...

Fall in Pennsylvania 2010 (Blizzard92)
Fall in Pennsylvania 2010
Fall in Pennsylvania 2010 (Blizzard92)
Fall in Pennsylvania 2010
Fall in Pennsylvania 2010 (Blizzard92)
Fall in Pennsylvania 2010

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166. Roebear
1:27 PM GMT on December 13, 2010
Looks like the start of a set-up for an East Coast Snowstorm early next week, say near the 20th but a bit early to do date and time. Looks like we will have a block over Hudson Bay and some other ingredients look promising. Opinion??
Member Since: December 12, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
165. TheRasberryPatch
10:48 PM GMT on November 20, 2010
Blizz - what model is performing well this year and which one won out last year? do you trust the one that was best last year more?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
163. Zachary Labe
9:10 PM GMT on November 20, 2010
NYCvort- Yep, the ECMWF shows all the blocking and a severe negative AO, yet it continues with transient cold blasts almost acting like there is very little cold in Canada, which I do not think will be true. Anyways thanks for stopping by!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
162. TheF1Man
8:24 PM GMT on November 20, 2010
Quoting weathergeek5:


I do remember the thanksgiving in 1989 that had snow in the Philly metro area.


I was only born in '92! i wouldn't remember that one
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
161. NYCvort
7:20 PM GMT on November 20, 2010
Quoting Blizzard92:
Also 0z ECMWF seemed to bring in the higher heights the east with a ridge too quickly. Usually these blocks last a bit longer than early prognostics. None the less I do not think the cold lasts overly long.

I agree with what you said, Blizz. I'm usually more of a fan of the ECMWF in the long range, especially when the GFS is a deep outlier, but this time I don't like the way it moves that trough out so fast. Like you said, these blocks are usually a little harder to break, and also if troughing persists in the Gulf of Alaska, then more likely than not we'd have a ridge downstream over the west coast with a trough remaining in the east. The ECMWF brings a reinforcing trough into the Gulf of AK and at the same time tries to dig a trough all the way down the west coast:



Something about that just doesn't seem right to me. It could conceivably happen, but it's not likely in my opinion.
Member Since: June 20, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 144
160. TheDawnAwakening
5:39 PM GMT on November 20, 2010
Blizz, I don't think any of us really think a prolonged arctic outbreak is really possible. Given that La ninas are notorious for breaking down the Aleutian ridge quickly given a stronger polar jet slamming into the Pacific NW. A pattern like those in La Ninas speeds the jet stream up and therefore transient patterns like the models are seeing occur. However the GGEM and GFS ensemble means for the 00z runs showed a persistent Aleutian ridge present, which means that the -EPO is going to stay constant until the ridge breaks down. 00z EURO however sees a transient pattern with an active Pacific/Polar Jet stream present. So which models do we believe? The answer is unknown, because of the lack of consistency in any solution. The ensembles have been pretty consistent with the Aleutian Ridge present and downstream -EPO troughing present. So with that said, I am inclined to watch the ensembles rather then the operational given the lack of continuity and model to model lack of agreement. Therefore I will throw out the operational models until I see otherwise.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3893
159. Zachary Labe
5:27 PM GMT on November 20, 2010

Wow, talk about differences between ECMWF and GFS long range, ugh! 12z operational GFS was interesting with two miller A storms progged as snowstorms along the east coast. While unlikely, it is encouraging to see moisture. Also 0z ECMWF seemed to bring in the higher heights the east with a ridge too quickly. Usually these blocks last a bit longer than early prognostics. None the less I do not think the cold lasts overly long.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
158. Drakoen
5:15 PM GMT on November 20, 2010
I like the 12z GFS strengthening of the Parent Low which tracks over the Great Lakes. The problem is the 500mb trough tilts negative so rapidly that the surface low occludes with a system that is only 999mb which then proceeds to move poleward. If we get this process to slow down then the low could track further south and east giving more moisture and CAA for those of us around the OV region and upper Mid Atlantic.

GFS12z:



Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30489
157. originalLT
4:58 PM GMT on November 20, 2010
Thanks for your up-coming new blog Blizz. I mentioned you on NYCvort's blog that he should visit yours, he seems pretty knowledgeable.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7504
156. Zachary Labe
4:52 PM GMT on November 20, 2010
TheRasberryPatch- No, my temperature now moved upward at all last night and steadily, slowly fell. I had a low of 27F reached at 6:20am. The cold pattern looks pretty dry with a very anomalously deep trough. None the less a few light QPF events have been progged by the GFS in that air mass.

cchamp6- I am going to try to. That is why I have been posting a few more general blogs like the one above that outlook the pattern for much of the northeast really. I am planning on a new blog sometime probably today, but could be tomorrow. That should highlight next week's weather.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
155. Drakoen
4:52 PM GMT on November 20, 2010
Quoting Blizzard92:

At least it is 06z GFS is a bit colder and keeps Harrisburg below 0C H85 for all of the run after Thanksgiving.


Same here, but I was being hopeful for some snow. Now that the model has the low track so far northwest initially it doesn't really give much to work with around the Ohio Valley Region.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30489
154. TheDawnAwakening
3:41 PM GMT on November 20, 2010
00z EURO stems away from the persistent -NAO blocking, which is totally off on its own right now, another reason to really discard the 00z EURO run, until it becomes more consistent.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3893
153. TheDawnAwakening
3:38 PM GMT on November 20, 2010
00z EURO run was off kilter as EURO ensembles keep the NE and GL in the cold throughout their run. GGEM ensembles and GEFS means agree on the overall positioning of the Aleutian ridging and this should naturally allow for a -EPO to become established and hopefully the PNA evolve into a ridging pattern. We need the 50/50 low for around the 28-30th storm to react eastward and not be pushed westward with the phasing of the PV. I think models will begin to lean away from phasing the PV and 50/50 lows for the 26-27th storm and instead remain separate entities. This would allow shortwave ridging ahead of the shortwave for the miller B system on the 28-30th.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3893
152. cchamp6
12:34 PM GMT on November 20, 2010
Blizz,

Some great discussions on here lately. Now that Sully is AWOL. Will you be covering my area a bit more? I know it is a lot to ask but we need ya up here too. On to this week I am wondering your early thoughts on my weather. ( I dont really care about your guys down south. LOL. You got your snow last year!) It seems that the early thoght for this winter is a battle between warm and cold. That is a perfect scenario in my book and my area for big snows.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
150. TheRasberryPatch
12:03 PM GMT on November 20, 2010
Blizz - did your temps go up last night after that low of33 early? my temp didn't come down from 40F until 1am and then actually spiked at 6am to 38F. now back to 34F. weird temp swings for the night and no clouds.

Any precip after Thanksgiving? I see temps will be cold. Sounds like a typical storm moving up to our West with a cold rain and then a cold front sliding through to drop temperatures after the storm
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
149. Zachary Labe
11:17 AM GMT on November 20, 2010
Quoting Drakoen:
Each run recent run of the GFS looks depressing, keeping the snow mainly confined to the Great Lakes region and New England. The parent low tracks up towards the western Great Lakes and secondaries off the Southeastern New England and then tracks up into the Gulf of Maine. Don't really see much working down the backside of the low at least not all the way down to Western WV for anything appreciable. The system overall looks moisture starved and confined.

At least it is 06z GFS is a bit colder and keeps Harrisburg below 0C H85 for all of the run after Thanksgiving.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
148. goofyrider
11:14 AM GMT on November 20, 2010
40.15 N, 75.02 W
Here is a link for snowfall @ Central Park

http://www.climatestations.com/images/stories/new-york/nydepth2.gif

it could happen again
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2777
147. Drakoen
6:03 AM GMT on November 20, 2010
Each run recent run of the GFS looks depressing, keeping the snow mainly confined to the Great Lakes region and New England. The parent low tracks up towards the western Great Lakes and secondaries off the Southeastern New England and then tracks up into the Gulf of Maine. Don't really see much working down the backside of the low at least not all the way down to Western WV for anything appreciable. The system overall looks moisture starved and confined.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30489
146. Drakoen
5:32 AM GMT on November 20, 2010
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
Blizz - temps have actually increased the last hour or so. Back up to 40F after a low of 35F @ 7pm

Drakoen - what are you expecting with the game tomorrow night? The terps have actually played pretty well with their freshman QB.


I'm expecting an FSU win... lol
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30489
145. TheDawnAwakening
5:32 AM GMT on November 20, 2010
First frost tonight is a great bet, 30f already here on Cape Cod, MA.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3893
144. TheDawnAwakening
4:41 AM GMT on November 20, 2010
Thanksgiving storm continues to get colder and colder now and the pattern for that storm is getting better by each run. Maybe this storm is the one that trumps the weekend possibility?
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3893
143. TheDawnAwakening
4:36 AM GMT on November 20, 2010
So far through 150 hours 00z GFS looks good. Stronger with the trough for the 26th storm. Looks to bring the storm through on Friday instead of Thursday.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3893
142. TheRasberryPatch
2:33 AM GMT on November 20, 2010
Blizz - temps have actually increased the last hour or so. Back up to 40F after a low of 35F @ 7pm

Drakoen - what are you expecting with the game tomorrow night? The terps have actually played pretty well with their freshman QB.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
141. weathergeek5
2:17 AM GMT on November 20, 2010
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
F1man - I know growing up in Maryland I can only recall one time where we had gotten an inch on Thanksgiving and that was '93 and I am getting close to the 50 year mark. Snowstorms and Thanksgiving just doesn't occur around the East Coast


I do remember the thanksgiving in 1989 that had snow in the Philly metro area.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
140. Drakoen
12:39 AM GMT on November 20, 2010
Quoting Blizzard92:

I thought you were down in Florida, but then you posted that forecast, hahaha... We are glad to have you on board!


Yeah lol I go to Florida State University. I'm just getting a feel for what I can expect when I head up to WV for Thanksgiving.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30489
139. Zachary Labe
12:37 AM GMT on November 20, 2010
Quoting Drakoen:


I'm in Tallahassee, FL at the moment but will be going up to Western WV (Huntington) from the 24th-27th. Then coming back down here for Final Exams then going back up there second week in December for about a month. Will be fun tracking storms with you guys this winter! :)

I thought you were down in Florida, but then you posted that forecast, hahaha... We are glad to have you on board!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
138. Drakoen
12:35 AM GMT on November 20, 2010
NWS Friday 06z (for those of us waking up early to get a head start on Black Friday shopping)

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30489
137. Drakoen
12:31 AM GMT on November 20, 2010
Quoting Blizzard92:

Where are you located?


I'm in Tallahassee, FL at the moment but will be going up to Western WV (Huntington) from the 24th-27th. Then coming back down here for Final Exams then going back up there second week in December for about a month. Will be fun tracking storms with you guys this winter! :)
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30489
136. Zachary Labe
12:28 AM GMT on November 20, 2010
Quoting Drakoen:
NWS yesterday had me at a chance or rain then snow for Thanksgiving. Now it has me at just rain with a 20% chance of snow on Friday.

Where are you located?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
135. Drakoen
12:21 AM GMT on November 20, 2010
NWS yesterday had me at a chance or rain then snow for Thanksgiving. Now it has me at just rain with a 20% chance of snow on Friday.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30489
134. Zachary Labe
12:11 AM GMT on November 20, 2010
Cold night tonight: 33.0F here already.


NWS forecast for Harrisburg next week (Here comes the cold; that forecast high for Friday will probably even lower a bit)...

Thursday Night: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday: Occasional flurries. Partly sunny, with a high near 40
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
133. Walshy
10:57 PM GMT on November 19, 2010
Quoting Blizzard92:

I think that Thanksgiving storm will be pretty warm even for parts of the Northeast. As we enter early December snow chances will increase, although I am not sure about North Carolina. I am not jumping on the cold train like many courtesy of a terrible looking Pacific.


Okay, thanks for the reply.

Now the forecast is calling for rain changing to snow Thanksgiving night into the following morning and a chance on December 3rd. Yesterday, they had thunderstorms. Guess ill have to wait a few more days before making my travel plans.
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 904
132. TheDawnAwakening
10:32 PM GMT on November 19, 2010
How bout them Celtics Blizz.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3893
131. TheDawnAwakening
10:31 PM GMT on November 19, 2010
Thanks Blizz.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3893
130. originalLT
10:24 PM GMT on November 19, 2010
All right TRP, we'll "target" that date!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7504
129. Zachary Labe
10:12 PM GMT on November 19, 2010
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Does anyone know how to get official Snowfall accumulations for a winter season for sites like BUF and BOS?

That is real interesting Drak, perhaps a good thing too, because the GFS and EURO have totally different outcomes with that storm near Thanksgiving and then the weekend storm is out to sea again. 500mb pattern stays favorable with over phasing PV into the polar jet stream trough over the eastern US.

Buffalo... Link
Boston... Link
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
128. TheRasberryPatch
9:55 PM GMT on November 19, 2010
Blizz - I knew you would find another time. I was at the beach that year, so we didn't get any for me to remember. I just hope the weather is cool. like highs in the low to mid 40's and lows in the 20's.

Uppy - sounds like you will have a good start of snow for December.

originalLT - around here lately Dec 5th has been a snow event. I am waiting for Blizz's prediction for Dec. 5th this year
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
127. TheDawnAwakening
9:51 PM GMT on November 19, 2010
Does anyone know how to get official Snowfall accumulations for a winter season for sites like BUF and BOS?

That is real interesting Drak, perhaps a good thing too, because the GFS and EURO have totally different outcomes with that storm near Thanksgiving and then the weekend storm is out to sea again. 500mb pattern stays favorable with over phasing PV into the polar jet stream trough over the eastern US.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3893
126. upweatherdog
9:34 PM GMT on November 19, 2010
The upcoming Thanksgiving storm looks interesting. Looks like the models want to bring low pressure up into northern Lower Michigan and possibly stall it out. Perfect setup for prolonged heavy lake enhanced snow over my county with north to northeasterly wind. Also a lot of cold air will be around for the system to work with.

Given the possition of the storm system, very cold westerly winds would blow across the southern and easter Great Lakes leading to the first major LES this Fall.

Over on Accuwx some of the mets think that some areas could be dealing with 90cm (30 inches) of snow by the start of December.
Member Since: October 14, 2007 Posts: 173 Comments: 1372
125. originalLT
9:05 PM GMT on November 19, 2010
Guys, I think the last big early Dec. storm for my area was in 2003, around Dec. 4th or so. Can't really remember one in late Nov. outside of some dustings of snow after a cold frontal passage.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7504
124. Zachary Labe
8:57 PM GMT on November 19, 2010
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
F1man - I know growing up in Maryland I can only recall one time where we had gotten an inch on Thanksgiving and that was '93 and I am getting close to the 50 year mark. Snowstorms and Thanksgiving just doesn't occur around the East Coast

The last Thanksgiving snow here in central Pennsylvania was 2005. I measured exactly 1.0in.


Anyways global forecast models definitely seem to be advertising a La Nina type pattern with dramatic swings between cold and warm air masses. This is common in a Nina regime as the pattern is usually volatile both temperature wise and storminess.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
123. TheRasberryPatch
8:46 PM GMT on November 19, 2010
F1man - I know growing up in Maryland I can only recall one time where we had gotten an inch on Thanksgiving and that was '93 and I am getting close to the 50 year mark. Snowstorms and Thanksgiving just doesn't occur around the East Coast
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
122. TheF1Man
8:24 PM GMT on November 19, 2010
originalLt, weasther does have a lot to do with history and have 50+ years is like having a nice little database right inside your head. I agree, everything needs to come together for there to be a thanksgiving storm. As far as my memory goes there's only been 1 year with a few inches on the ground, and the past few have been generally mild. Correct me if i'm wrong though.
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
121. Drakoen
8:19 PM GMT on November 19, 2010
HPC seems to be discounting the 12z runs:

OVERALL...MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THIS PATTERN ALOFT HAS
BECOME LOWER THAN NORMAL SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE NORMAL
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LARGER SCALE PATTERN.
HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR SPECIFICS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL WAVE
DEVELOPMENT ARE OFTEN NOT WELL DEPICTED BY THE MODELS AS PER THE
TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONES SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS TEMPERED TO SOME
DEGREE WITH THESE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOCUSING FEATURES. THIS HAS
ONLY BEEN MORE THE CASE AFTER SEEING VARIED 12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE
SURFACE DEPICTIONS NEXT WEEK.
ACCORDINGLY...HPC MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A 3-WAY BLEND OF THE 00
UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEFS IN AN EFFORT TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AMID
LINGERING UNCERTAINTY. THIS SOLUTION OFFERS REASONABLY SIMILAR
LARGER SCALE FLOW EVOLUTIONS AND A BLEND OF THEIR SMALLER SCALE
AND LOWER LEVEL FEATURES SEEM TO BEST MITIGATE LESS PREDICTABLE
DIFFERENCES.


Has a favorable track for me with the storm moving through the Ohio River Valley and up into the eastern Great Lakes region.


Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30489
120. TheDawnAwakening
8:15 PM GMT on November 19, 2010
Not sure about Lake Michigan, perhaps western MI state region will be more likely given a more NNW wind.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3893
119. originalLT
7:14 PM GMT on November 19, 2010
Thanks, TheF1Man, but I'm pretty much a Vis. Satellite guy and Radar guy, and I rely on over 50 years of weather watching and remembering what has and what has not happened at least in my area at various times of the year. My area being southern Westchester county as a kid growing up, and Stamford CT. for the last 26 and a half years. I just know it's difficult(but not impossible) to get a decent snowfall for my area the last week of Nov. or the first few days of Dec. Things really have to come together to get it, a decent snow fall, If I were a betting man I would bet against it.
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118. TheRasberryPatch
6:01 PM GMT on November 19, 2010
Will there also be LES for Lake Michigan next week?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
117. TheDawnAwakening
4:59 PM GMT on November 19, 2010
12z GFS is all over the place. One thing is certain about the 12z GFS and that is the pattern is favorable for an EC storm, but the models take it out to sea because of the trough axis is too far east. I heard a bias of the models is that they tend to overphase the PV into the troughs. I think Drak was the one to mention that. Hoepfully that is the case with the next weekend storm. LES still looks great for the areas I highlighted.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3893
116. TheDawnAwakening
4:47 PM GMT on November 19, 2010


Areas where significant LES snowfall is expected for late next week.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3893

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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