First Snowflakes of the Year!

By: Zachary Labe , 8:44 PM GMT on November 02, 2010

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"Afternoon Thoughts" (Updated 11/02)
Through my entire education I have been taught a set structure for writing essays. Always begin with an AGD (Attention Getting Device). Usually they would advise posing a question, statistic, or quote to support the AGD. Then add a thesis statement (topic sentence). Always make sure the thesis statement is three prong. This means state the topic and add three points in the sentence to support the topic. Example: I like the weather because it is fun, cool, and exciting. Of course that would be a terrible thesis statement, but you get the point. Then write a body paragraph to support each of the three examples. Finally write the last paragraph as a conclusion. This is the typical 5-body paragraph that my teachers have emphasized since my very beginnings of middle school/high school English class. While this is all fine and dandy, the problem is a set structure. Typically, I do not associate writing with one of my hobbies, but I cannot say I hate it either. In any case writing should not follow a set pattern. This does not mean writing an essay should consist of no structure or pattern. But who is to say it has to follow five paragraphs and have a three prong thesis statement. Often I find these over-structured papers to be dull and boring. Writing is self-expression like any art form... music, painting, etc. It should begin with an acknowledgement of one's idea with supporting details in the form of expression, like a conversion. If I was to do a research paper on lake effect snow for English class, it would probably be advised to follow the five-body paragraph plan. But I would stray from that, using a more unique approach while still having an interesting introduction and conclusion with a thesis statement. But there would be a twist and not so much of a cookie-cutter approach. Everything in the world seems to always be a structured approach. Yes, this keeps things organized, but it is not always the answer to everything. Sure, it would be simple to go through a checklist to figure out whether a nor'easter would affect Washington DC or not, but unfortunately forecasting is more than something fitting X,Y,Z. Just like a snowflake, no two are alike. I can say well this winter will be like X, but in reality there will not be too many similarities. But back to the original point, you do not have to pierce your body all over and die your hair pink to be 'different' or 'unique;' all it takes is a bit of character and not being afraid to bend societies set boundaries.

"Current Surface Plot"

(Courtesy of HPC)

"Regional Radar"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"Regional Advisories"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Forecast Discussion"(Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware)(Updated 11/02)
High pressure is stationed across the northern United States allowing for a cool airmass to remain over the Northeast. H85 thermals around -2C and 1000-500mb thicknesses near 538dm will translate to surface high temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday to range about 5-8F below normal. Widespread sunshine is likely on Tuesday with only some high cirrus. Tuesday night will feature very cold temperatures across the entire northern Middle Atlantic. 2m GFS/NAM dewpoints range in the upper 20s to low 30s by evening and fall into the mid 20s overnight north of 40N. With clear skies and decoupling winds, cool air will sink into the valleys for ideal radiational cooling. Favored radational cooling locations such as in northern Pennsylvania in McKean, Potter, and Tioga Counties will drop in the upper teens. The northern half of Pennsylvania in the Alleghany Plateau region will be in the lower 20s with the central ridge and valley region in the mid 20s south to about the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Towards Philadelphia the suburbs will drop in the upper 20s with low to mid 30s for the city center. Across Washington DC, Maryland, and Delaware suburban regions will be in the mid to upper 20s with 30s for city centers. Across western Maryland towards Garret County and Alleghany County, a few low 20s are possible. This is the second night in a row for a regionwide killing frost. Wednesday, the surface high move eastward allowing for a bit more southerly component to the winds aloft. This will bump high temperatures up a bit into the low to mid 50s for locations north of the Mason-Dixon line and mid 50s to upper 50s south into Maryland and Delaware. Across the higher elevations above 1200ft, temperatures will be in the 40s. Sunshine will dominate the region, but some mid to high level clouds will approach from the southwest by early evening. A deepening trough over the mid center of the CONUS will begin to slip eastward. Tropical moisture along the eastern periphery of the trough axis will phase with an approaching upper level low. This will develop a low pressure just north of Cape Hatteras, NC. GFS is my model of choice remaining of highest consistency. ECMWF and GGEM were over-amplifying earlier runs allowing for a slightly inland track. But GFS has remain consistent on a weak 850hPa low tracking a bit farther off the coast by about 100-300mi. By 12z Thursday, GFS/NAM prognostics indicate a 1004mb 850hPa surface low off the coast of the Delmarva with light QPF thrown back into the northern Middle Atlantic. It remains in question of how much QPF is thrown back to the west. SREF probabilities show measurable QPF back to about the Hagerstown-Altoona line. This is in close agreement with GFS QPF fields. Accounting for some initial dry air, about .05in can be subtracted for QPF totals. The NAM is a bit different in its output, showing the surface low farther off the coast with most of the moisture occuring along the trough axis as it approaches the region Thursday night. At the time the NAM prognostics seem to have a few convective feedback problems and basically a messy surface output. QPF fields will be disgarded. ECMWF is slightly similar to the NAM with a washed out approach before the low undergoes cyclogenesis off of Nantucket. H85 thermals remain above 0C, so all rain is likely for the entire northern Middle Atlantic on Thursday. With an approaching trough and clouds, highs will likely be in the 40s regionwide to perhaps 50F near Washington DC. Total QPF will likely range from less than .25in near KMDT to about .5in near KPHI.

The 1000mb surface low will pull off to the northeast by Friday with the trough axis approaching Pennsylvania from the west. 1000-500mb thicknesses will drop into the sub 525dm range as far south as Harrisburg. A very steep trough will settle into the region with a sharp north-northwest flow. H85 heights will drop to near -7C for the northern Middle Atlantic. Surface highs will be particularily well below normal especially towards Saturday. A few lake effect snow showers are likely Friday towards northwest Pennsylvania. See more details below. On Saturday, an upper level low passes through the trough axis over the northeast enhancing a few snow showers. Currently GFS/ECMWF correlated QPF fields show 0.01-0.03in QPF over much of the Northeast. This may signal rain/snow showers over much of the Northeast. Current MREF indicate high temperatures below 40F for the western 2/3rds of Pennsylvania and western Maryland with mid 40s elsewhere. With dewpoints in the low to mid 20s regionwide and temperatures aloft well below 0C, the first snow flakes of the region may occur for many areas Friday night into the first half of Saturday. A flurry or two may even be possible for those immediate areas east of the Appalachians. By Sunday temperatures begin to warm up back to seasonal values with sunshine.

"Regional Satellite"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Current Water Vapor Loop"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Fall Foliage Outlook" (Updated 10/23)
It is amazing how quick the fall foliage season ended. In fact if you slept through one day, you probably missed the peak. Very dry conditions in August for the northern Middle Atlantic promoted dull colors including browns and dull yellows. This was well forecast months ago, that this fall foliage season would not be the best. Maples still seemed to fair pretty well with brilliant reds and nice oranges, even in the maple forests of northern Pennsylvania above 1900ft. By the oaks suffered greatly regionwide with predominate browns. Past peak conditions have gotten about as far south as the Mason-Dixon line excluding western Maryland. I was up in the Kittatinny Ridge region north of Reading, PA and leaves were completely down above 1200ft. In fact it looked late November with brown conditions and an overcast strato-cumulus sky from the northwest flow. Colors right now are peaking towards southern Maryland and Delaware and towards the immediate Philadelphia suburbs/city center. A few important notes though... Peak conditions were actually quite a bit ahead of schedule in comparison to the last few Falls. In fact I was taking a look at foliage pictures from 2007, and peak conditions did not occur that year until around November 11-18 for the Harrisburg area and even later farther south. But most of that was courtesy to the unusually warm October that year with 80s much of the month including many record highs. I believe it went down as the warmest October on record. Last Fall colors were about a week later than this year. Very often I hear people argue that the weather does not affect Fall leave patterns and it is just the sun angle. This arguement just does not have much support. Every year the peak conditions vary with no pattern from year to year. It is highly dependent on temperatures and soil moisture. Still though, surprisingly, Fall foliage is understood very poorly in the sciences.

Fall Foliage Reports... Link

"Average Date of First Freeze"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Lake Effect Snow Conditions" (Updated 11/02)
I am excited. This is the first lake effect snow discussion of the season and signals winter's approach. While here I live in the downsloping capital of the world, my favorite type of weather is still lake effect snow. Anyways the first snow flakes of the region may fall for many locations. A weak sub 1000mb nor'easter will be pulling to the northeast by Friday afternoon resuming a strong northwest flow. A -1SD trough will sink in over the region with surface temperature anomalies around 10-15F below normal. A slightly tight pressure gradient will promote a breezy north-northwest flow with boundary layer gusts around 25mph. Warm lake temperatures in the 50s with surface temperatures in the 30s will promote a highly unstable atmosphere. Shearing winds aloft will CAP off any intense bands, but there still will be some light accumulations. Above freezing ground temperatures Friday and marginal mid to upper 30F boundary layer temperatures will only allow for a mix of rain and snow showers for the snow belts. The flow will be around 330F, which promotes banding into the Laurel Highlands. No accumulation is likely Friday and rain/snow showers will be confined to typical snow belts. But Friday night into Saturday morning, 700mb RH values will increase as an upper level low moves north of the area. This will enhance instability convective cells and orographically enhanced precipitation over the region. GFS/NAM/ECMWF QPF fields indicate a few sprinkles/flurries as far east as the Lower Susquehanna Valley. GFS/NAM show a weak Huron-Erie streamer into the southern Laurel Highlands and northwestern Maryland with light 1-2in snowfall accumulations possible above 2200ft Friday night. Also light coating-1in snowfall amounts are possible in all snow belt regions that Friday night. More widespread non-accumulating snow showers will be likely Saturday. Highs Saturday will be in the 30s for much of Pennsylvania and western Maryland with low to mid 40s for the lower elevations. I would not be surprised to see a 2.5-3in total towards Laurel Summit and Mount Davis in Pennsylvania or around McHenry, MD by early Saturday morning. Drying air will move overhead with an advancing anti-cyclone by late Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will warm back to normal values with sunshine by Saturday. For those with interests in the snow belt regions Friday night, stay tuned for rapidly changing conditions for the first light snow of the year. I would also not rule out a coating of snow for Pittsburgh and Erie overnight. Outside the forecast zone, orographic snows are likely for northern New York, northern Vermont, and northern New Hampshire in this period. Accumulations up to 5in or a bit more especially towards Mount Mansfield and similar favored peaks.

"Current Great Lakes Water Temperatures"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Long Term Outlook" (Updated 11/02)
The long term pattern will be dominated by rising heights over the eastern seaboard. The NAO is on the rise along with the EPO as they entire the positive range. This will allow the cool air to reload a bit into Canada and help to build a snowpack up for the northern parts of North America. The week of November 8-15 will likely be at or above normal with highs maxing out in the mid 60s during the height over the northern Middle Atlantic. The GFS and ECMWF have both been advertising this warmth in that time frame and wavelengths are in full support. What remains interesting is the wavelength period by the third week of November. The NAO looks to head slightly negative again and the EPO will definitely nose dive. At the time it appears arctic air will be diving into the western Plains. In fact a few 384hr GFS runs show near -20C H85 thermals into Montana. Eventually this cold air will slide eastward, but will be a bit modified as the core of the cold air moves more south than east. The cold air will eventually move in towards the east coast as November probably ends on a cold note. For those looking for their first synoptic snow, it is not likely through at least November 12 for most areas outside the higher elevations of New England. Patience is key in this pattern. It is nice to see though a pattern defying the typical La Nina structure especially considering the strength or anomaly of the equitorial Pacific SST deviations. MJO phase wavelengths support the colder air through early December over the east coast. I still believe much of the Middle Atlantic will receive a synoptic snow before the month's end excluding maybe the coastal regions. But for now this snow chance is a good two weeks away at least...

"Current NAO and PNA Predictions"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Anchorage, Alaska Tower Cam"

*Back due to popular demand!

"Monthly Temperature/Precipitation Outlook"(November)(Updated 10/23)
I think I am going to trend a bit on the mild side for the upcoming November despite interesting teleconnections. Mean 500mb guidance from the past week show a bit a southeast ridge beginning to flex its muscle into the southern Middle Atlantic. Latest 10/23/10 0utc GFS 10-14day 500mb mean actually supports this continuing in that range with a 588dm ridge over the southeast. Right now the polar vortex is just north of Alaska by about 200mi, which is good for now. But guidance suggests this may sink southward towards November. This tends to favor ridging over the east coast and troughing over the western United States up through Alaska and the Canadian Rockies. But current ensemble runs indicate a negative NAO to open up November. There will likely be an eastern cool pattern during the first week of November. The La Nina continues to show that it is already one of the strongest La Ninas on record. But it is encouraging to see little temeperature drops in Nina 3.4 SSTs. For those looking for an early season snowstorm this year, a few encouraging signs can be found in the cryosphere. Levels are at around normal values, which are actually higher than the previous few years. Siberian snow cover has shown impressive gains in the last two weeks and has reached above normal levels. Also North America snow levels have increased in northern Canada and Alaska courtesy of the trough moving through and associated low presssure system. None the less, I believe typical La Nina conditions will dominate November's weather with a southeast ridge. But cooler weather may return towards the end of the month with perhaps the first inland snowfall in this time period around or just after Thanksgiving. We shall see how those wavelengths turn out. Precipitation chances are right around normal for all areas. The farther south one goes in the Middle Atlantic will dictate how anomalous the warmth is this month as weak troughing from the negative NAO may be enough to save some areas in Pennsylvania from the warmth.

"Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from Climate Prediction Center for next 30 days"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

-Winter Outlook 2010-2011...Link.

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2010-2011 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 0in
Monthly Total (November)- 0in
Seasonal Total- 0in
Winter Weather Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 0

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 49.7F
Lowest Low Temperature- 24.9F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
None...

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124. georgeaskew
9:35 AM GMT on December 04, 2010
Looks like an active weekend for the Great Lakes, WSB and Upweatherdog.
Member Since: November 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
123. TheDawnAwakening
4:48 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Blizz, the GFS is not to be trusted in the medium range (4-7 days). Past experience has shown that even with the biggest snowstorms this model has at times not even shown a storm, or a storm too far southeast. 12z EURO shows our storm at hour 120-144, but is too far ESE with the low. Cold air is present for the region. It seems the model camps show a large difference in handling the lead shortwave for the 16-17th and their handling of the energy in the arctic jet that breaks away from the PV and tries to enter into the northern jet stream shortwave trough. Still a lot of time to decide whether or not this is a viable snow threat.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3696
122. Zachary Labe
10:41 PM GMT on November 13, 2010
First snow threat coming up next week towards Friday as a clipper approaches the region. It looks a little warm at the surface and I am not too fond of the threat. But it is something to keep in the back of the mind. 18z GFS...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
121. Drakoen
9:06 PM GMT on November 13, 2010
Quoting Blizzard92:
upweatherdog- I have no clue on the longer range threat, I have not looked to be honest, hahahaha. And I thought it was pretty likely you turn to rain later today and tonight? Did things change?

Drakoen- Ugh, that is ugly. Pattern is touchy and assume the whole winter will be. If we do not get the right blocking for the eastern seaboards standards, then yuck warmth for us.


The long-range GFS gives us hope that that cold air will push eastward eventually. It looks like the models prefer the western 2/3rds though with the negative PNA western trough.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29919
120. Zachary Labe
8:57 PM GMT on November 13, 2010
upweatherdog- I have no clue on the longer range threat, I have not looked to be honest, hahahaha. And I thought it was pretty likely you turn to rain later today and tonight? Did things change?

Drakoen- Ugh, that is ugly. Pattern is touchy and assume the whole winter will be. If we do not get the right blocking for the eastern seaboards standards, then yuck warmth for us.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
119. Drakoen
7:27 PM GMT on November 13, 2010
ECMWF 12z @ 240hrs

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29919
118. upweatherdog
5:36 PM GMT on November 13, 2010
Snowing heavy now. Been snowing heavy the past few hours. Hopefully it dosn't turn to rain.

What do you think about the possible heavy LES event across the upper Great Lakes on Thursday advertised by the Euro Blizz? No other models but the Euro forecast a strong area of low pressure to move across the upper Great Lakes.
Member Since: October 14, 2007 Posts: 173 Comments: 1372
117. Zachary Labe
5:25 PM GMT on November 13, 2010
Quoting originalLT:
Thanks , Blizz, like I told you my dauughter, who is an English teaher in high school here in Stamford, read your paragraph about the structured essay, and in essance or theory agrees with you, for students of your level, but, the overall level of students coming up from middle school is so low, in writing skills, at least in our community, that such a writing format, such structure, is desparately needed. these kids for the most part, have no clue as to how to write. Its a pretty sad state of affairs.

Oh, that is ashame. I have been fortunate enough to usually be in Honors English classes so it is a bit less structured and more of using your own free will. But in the lower two levels of English classes I am sure they have a similar situation for some kids.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
116. originalLT
4:50 PM GMT on November 13, 2010
Thanks , Blizz, like I told you my dauughter, who is an English teaher in high school here in Stamford, read your paragraph about the structured essay, and in essance or theory agrees with you, for students of your level, but, the overall level of students coming up from middle school is so low, in writing skills, at least in our community, that such a writing format, such structure, is desparately needed. these kids for the most part, have no clue as to how to write. Its a pretty sad state of affairs.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7443
115. Zachary Labe
4:35 PM GMT on November 13, 2010
New blog coming either today or tomorrow!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
114. TheRasberryPatch
12:20 PM GMT on November 13, 2010
How long do you think the cold blast will last? I am kind of getting used to our weather the past week. Except for that week where we got a lot of rain, we have been very dry
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6252
113. Zachary Labe
1:17 AM GMT on November 13, 2010
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
how far out are we talking and it's already starting. too funny

My cold pattern change date has been the 20th for a while, so I am sticking with that. It will probably be a step-down pattern with each preceeding cold front bringing a cooler air mass than the previous.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
112. TheDawnAwakening
8:47 PM GMT on November 12, 2010
12z GFS ensemble mean is something I would take over one operational run and they show a more central/west based NAO. So I would go with the ensemble mean over the operational. 12z EURO/GGEM models have also begun showing the coastal storm secondary formation for the 19th.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3696
111. TheRasberryPatch
8:44 PM GMT on November 12, 2010
how far out are we talking and it's already starting. too funny
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6252
110. Zachary Labe
8:00 PM GMT on November 12, 2010
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
00z EURO/12z GEFS means shows a central/west based -NAO anomalies which could lead to a massive storm system sometime after Thanksgiving. Again 00z EURO wants to show a low pressure system sometime around the 22nd off the East Coast as Drak said, the GFS op and ensemble means show clipper moving through the northern jet stream in the 18-20th timeframe with a -EPO/+PNA/-NAO regime and the AO is negative too with potential for a further southward progression in the GFS ops and ensemble mean for next weekend. We are in a pattern currently with a favorable Great Lakes track with snowfall occuring across the western Lakes region and the Lake Effect machine will start to crank after this weekend storm system. Southern stream system invades the eastern Us from the GOM next WED/THUR timeframe with heavy rainfall and potential for cold air advection to occur on the northwest side of the low as it strengthens moving north. northeastward.

The timeframe to watch for potential snowfall remains 18-20th and 26-28th of NOV.

12z GFS still has some east based NAO blocking issues, ugh!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
109. TheDawnAwakening
7:24 PM GMT on November 12, 2010
00z EURO/12z GEFS means shows a central/west based -NAO anomalies which could lead to a massive storm system sometime after Thanksgiving. Again 00z EURO wants to show a low pressure system sometime around the 22nd off the East Coast as Drak said, the GFS op and ensemble means show clipper moving through the northern jet stream in the 18-20th timeframe with a -EPO/+PNA/-NAO regime and the AO is negative too with potential for a further southward progression in the GFS ops and ensemble mean for next weekend. We are in a pattern currently with a favorable Great Lakes track with snowfall occuring across the western Lakes region and the Lake Effect machine will start to crank after this weekend storm system. Southern stream system invades the eastern Us from the GOM next WED/THUR timeframe with heavy rainfall and potential for cold air advection to occur on the northwest side of the low as it strengthens moving north. northeastward.

The timeframe to watch for potential snowfall remains 18-20th and 26-28th of NOV.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3696
108. Zachary Labe
1:28 AM GMT on November 12, 2010
Quoting Drakoen:
The GFS seems to be slower than the ECMWF with the cold air and keeps the CAA over the northern tier and out back west. Would think that the negative EPO would help translate the trough further to the south and east with the -NAO and -AO.

NAO looks east based in the GFS long range, which is no help to us here in the Northeast and may help to keep the EPO cold air dump displaced to our west.

TheRasberryPatch- Yep, wavelengths show a pretty cold signal. Although I think the core of the coldest air will be offset to our northwest.

bwi- Seems close agreement with ECMWF.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
107. bwi
12:46 AM GMT on November 12, 2010
HPC's 4-8 day Alaska forecast shows a very cold high about 1050mb crossing the state, moving east toward Canada by day 8.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
106. TheRasberryPatch
11:17 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Blizz - I was looking at the summary where they show previous years of La Nina. And on average it shows warm, but like you said it all depends on other factors. It was funny seeing how they give zero confidence in any prediction. It's like then why put out any forecast if you won't at least take some chance of being right or wrong.

so in 10 days or so the temps will get much colder? nothing wrong with a cold Thanksgiving, just as long as I am not using the snowblower. Any guesses for December 5th?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6252
105. Drakoen
11:10 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
The GFS seems to be slower than the ECMWF with the cold air and keeps the CAA over the northern tier and out back west. Would think that the negative EPO would help translate the trough further to the south and east with the -NAO and -AO.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29919
104. Zachary Labe
10:47 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
TheRasberryPatch- Eh, it just gets me angry. If they wrote one for El Nino it would go warm too. They use just La Nina as a straight factor while not taking other things into account. For instance the upstream blocking in the north Atlantic is completely different that the typical Nina setup at this time. Each Nina is a case by case and those general warmish forecasts never work out. While it could average well warm this winter, it would be because of many factors. Remember I am going warmer than normal this with average snowfall.

Drakoen- Thanks for posting that! I have been advertising this November 20+ pattern swing for a while now and it still looks right on track. Quite the mega block on the ECMWF on day 10.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
103. Drakoen
10:30 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Posted this in Master's Blog, but figured it would have use here as well.

Past couple of runs of the ECMWF long-range have been hinting a cold push of air funneling down from Canada the week of Thanksgiving. Teleconnections of the EPO and the NAO diving negative favors a cold air outbreak. This mornings 00z ECMWF featured a massive 1054mb Canadian High most likely progged to head south and east bring with it cold air advection for the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS. And if you notice there is a low pressure system off the coast of New England.



Figure 1. ECMWF 00z 850MB temperatures with sea level pressure plot.



Figure 2. ECMWF 12z 850mb temperatures with sea level pressure plot.



Figure 3. Model plots of the NAO




Figure 4. Model plots of the EPO
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29919
102. TheDawnAwakening
10:30 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Looks like an active weekend for the Great Lakes, WSB and Upweatherdog. Good luck up there. I will not get excited about possible snowstorms until the -EPO and +PNA returns. I guess any snow before that happens will be bonus.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3696
101. Winterstormsblog
9:13 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Quoting upweatherdog:
Looking like a snowstorm here this weekend in the U.P. I think we could pick up around a foot of snow! Will be nice to get the snowmobile out!

Models show a strong Alberta Clipper type system next week bringing another chance of significant snow with 3 to 6 inch amounts widespread with locakly heavier amounts in the lake effect belts across the U.P.

Also looking like it will get more wintery in the Northeast too. Models are hinting at possible snow events further out.

Winter is coming!


Looks like maybe more than 3-6 in far western U.P and part of northern MN and WI
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 86 Comments: 5650
100. TheRasberryPatch
9:04 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Uppy - what have the temps been like up in the UP. us trolls have had some gorgeous weather the past few days
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6252
99. upweatherdog
8:58 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Looking like a snowstorm here this weekend in the U.P. I think we could pick up around a foot of snow! Will be nice to get the snowmobile out!

Models show a strong Alberta Clipper type system next week bringing another chance of significant snow with 3 to 6 inch amounts widespread with locakly heavier amounts in the lake effect belts across the U.P.

Also looking like it will get more wintery in the Northeast too. Models are hinting at possible snow events further out.

Winter is coming!
Member Since: October 14, 2007 Posts: 173 Comments: 1372
98. TheRasberryPatch
8:45 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Blizz did you get a chance to check out the summary the NWS has for the mid-Atlantic. Looking at past La Nina's the winter doesn't look promising for cold temps or snow
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6252
97. Zachary Labe
7:56 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Hello all!!! Great to see everyone returning. Hopefully we can get this place as busy as last year.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
96. TheDawnAwakening
7:14 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Hey everyone, it is that time of the year that I begin to post on wunderground, especially as the flakes fly. I have another blog that I post everyday at, http://sneweatherpsu.blogspot.com. Feel free to leave comments and read my latest forecast updates for Southern New England weather. This forecast will handle CT, RI and MA weather. Sometimes I will take care most of the Northeast and MidAtlantic if the storm is widespread. I will post here as well, especially as threatening weather enters the picture.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3696
95. Winterstormsblog
5:15 PM GMT on November 11, 2010
Hey blizzard,
Thinking about moving back into the blogging scene for this winter. BTW, love that anchorage webcam, I look at it several times a week every fall to get me going for winter lol. See ya around...
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 86 Comments: 5650
94. TheRasberryPatch
2:24 AM GMT on November 11, 2010
looking at that summary it doesn't look like much winter weather is in store for that area as well as a warmer winter. i guess we will see. if that is the case for that area, i would think south central PA will be similar
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6252
93. bwi
12:36 AM GMT on November 11, 2010
A quick follow-up -- I noticed that yesterday the NWS at DC/MD/VA region posted a short summary on the impact of La Nina on local winter weather.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
92. bwi
12:15 AM GMT on November 11, 2010
Hi Blizz, greetings from Maryland. I wanted to check in on your blog for the first time in many months -- I haven't been here since last winter, but looking forward to your analysis this season.

We're driving to Montreal over Thanksgiving -- hoping for clear skies and not too cold, so we can ride our bikes around up there (it's a great city for riding if you've got the winter gear!).
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
91. TheRasberryPatch
10:08 PM GMT on November 10, 2010
What a beautiful day here in the Lower Susquehanna. You couldn't ask for a better day in November. Sometimes it is so nice to have a day like this and others a nice crisp sunny day.

Look at how beautiful those mountains look outside of Anchorage. Anyone that has been there knows that pictures will never do it justice the look of snow covered mountains in Alaska. And the height of them. It is truly amazing how your depth perception is really bad.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6252
90. originalLT
1:10 AM GMT on November 10, 2010
I was afraid it may have been fog.
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89. Zachary Labe
1:00 AM GMT on November 10, 2010
Quoting originalLT:
WOW, looks like a heavy snow going on in Anchorage, unless it's fog!

A bit of dense fog up there today.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
88. originalLT
1:55 PM GMT on November 09, 2010
WOW, looks like a heavy snow going on in Anchorage, unless it's fog!
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87. HeavySnow
2:58 AM GMT on November 09, 2010
I'm waiting patiently for my first flakes. No time soon, but not too far off. I've had my first freeze at least.
Way to go Blizz on Millersville. More acceptances coming soon.

Hello all!

SNOWSNOWSNOW!!!
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
86. BANGORWALKER
2:04 AM GMT on November 09, 2010
Looks like Anchorage got a real fresh coating of snow tonight...
Member Since: January 17, 2006 Posts: 18 Comments: 3382
85. wxdude714
1:51 AM GMT on November 09, 2010
I'm interested on how you know about the end of November being the next cold period. I have it pegged Nov 30-Dec 6th. The first accumulating snowfall for the Mid-Atlantic Dec 2nd. It looks to be upto 3". I don't expect much more than that. It's fun to see the La Nina weakening as I expected(dispite model projections). The thermoclines are warming, but I don't see it changing into an El Nino anytime soon. I'm still interested in the 26th of December as a good snow storm for the Mid-Atlantic.
Member Since: October 9, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 22
84. Zachary Labe
12:51 AM GMT on November 09, 2010
TheRasberryPatch- That is sort of what I am feeling, a steady soreness. Anyways, yeah looks like Anchorage received a healthy moderate accumulation with just a bit more tonight. Another storm system should move into that region later this week.

originalLT- Thanks! I then submitted my application for the Millersville Honors college, so we shall see how that goes too.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
83. originalLT
12:35 AM GMT on November 09, 2010
BLIZZ, congrats on the Millersville acceptance, I'm sure there will be a few more coming in soon, in the next several weeks. Enjoy your PENN.STATE trip! And TRP has given you good advice, ibuprofen works for me, don't try to be a hero and suffer thru the pain(if there is any).
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7443
82. TheRasberryPatch
12:26 AM GMT on November 09, 2010
cchamp - i guess golf season is over for you now with snow and ice. that is a terrible mistake by the NWS in your area. were the mets in the dark as well?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6252
81. TheRasberryPatch
12:24 AM GMT on November 09, 2010
Blizz - one thing i recall from having wisdom teeth extracted....after 3 or 4 days the skin starts to tighten around the stitches and it is sore. taking ibuprofens really helped. it wasn't like pain, but more of an irritating soreness.

don't get your hopes down with the colleges. some seem like them take forever. just be patient.

Anchorage got a nice dumping overnight.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6252
80. Zachary Labe
11:42 PM GMT on November 08, 2010
Thanks for the comments all! Doing well here with very little swelling. Pain was a little rough today, but not too bad in comparison to some people's reactions. Looks like quite the cold and possibly snowy blast is headed our way towards Thanksgiving. I will have more on that with a new blog this weekend. Wednesday, headed up to Penn State again to visit the meteorology department and tour the campus. Still only have heard from one college so far, Millersville U acceptance; waiting on the other three.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
79. zotty
11:31 PM GMT on November 08, 2010
Champ, that is quite a day!

Blizz- how are those cheeks doing? Are you eating anything other than milkshakes yet?
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 729
78. goofyrider
10:03 PM GMT on November 08, 2010
40.15N, 74.02W
Afternoon all:
We had a touch of sleet around 0930 but not much precip. By 1600 we were at .03 inches. Waves were flat with the NW-N winds.

Pressure down to 1000.2 mb earlier. Some windy squalls still coming by. Temps only dropped in late pm.

Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2732
77. originalLT
9:56 PM GMT on November 08, 2010
Nice report cchamp6, and you are 100% right in what you say about the NWS and Blizz. Just wish we had Sullivan Weather back to round out our Northeast forecasts. Glad you are enjoying the college experience, it can be the greatest 4 years of your life!, TheF1Man, keep it up!!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7443
76. cchamp6
9:42 PM GMT on November 08, 2010
So here is a recap of this crazy day. Woke to heavy snow and high wind. It switched to a mix after about an inch of accumulation. Then without warning we had 5 hours of fairly heavy freezing rain and sleet. The higher elevations above 1,000 feet had over 1/2" of ice while the wind gusted to 50 mph. Needless to say we had a ton of trees down. On homes and all over the roadways. Many powerlines down as well. NWS in Albany once again blew this forecast. Not a single warning for any winter weather nevermind the incredible wind. When we get a wind warning it blows about 20 mph. When there is no warning or advisory we get 50 mph gusts. They predict a noreaster and we get a couple of inches. It is really frustrating to say the least. Ill take Blizz's forecast over NWS any day. For those who dont know my location I am in the Bantam section of Litchfield Ct. Wind is still howling out there.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
75. TheF1Man
7:05 PM GMT on November 08, 2010
Hey LT classes are going great! I'm very busy with homework and clubs, but i'm enjoying the college life so thank you for asking. I do feel like I spend more time in the lab then in my room but it's part of the job.

It has been extremely windy today, I wish I had some numbers. We briefly lost power in one part of campus.
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
74. Hoynieva
5:31 PM GMT on November 08, 2010
It was 44.5 when the sleet came through here and after that the temps started dropping for a while. It got down to 39 and that was when snow started to mix in, but now it's back up to 43.2 and the end of the precip was all rain...just cold and cloudy now.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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