Winter Forecast 2010-2011

By: Zachary Labe , 9:06 PM GMT on September 11, 2010

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Winter Outlook 2010-2011...(December, January, February)


(South Mountain- 21 February 2010)

Ah, the sounds of shoveling and snow blowers in the early morning will soon become the norm as old man winter blows across the western hemisphere. After anomalous snowfall during the season of 2009-2010, a peak back at snowy years has quickly remerged in our short term memory banks. For those located along the I-95 corridor south of the Mason-Dixon line, historical odds show a near 1 in 200 chance of a another seasonal snowfall year such as the one before. For those north of that line, there have been several seasons which have featured snowier conditions than last season. None the less for many, the month of February will be one to tell the grandchildren after a series of low pressures matured off the eastern seaboard. The pattern was emphasized by a starkly negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation). The NAO is teleconnective value, which takes into account differing regions of air pressure in the northern Atlantic located near the Icelandic Low and Azores High Pressure. The strengths of these associated areas including positions affect the mean NAO throughout the entire year. As the polar jet begins to drop across the northern United States towards the winter months, the NAO has direct affects on long term wavelength patterns downstream dictating short term and long term weather patterns. Unfortunately the NAO is not able to be predicted accurately more than a two week period or so in advance, reducing its helpfulness it long term weather pattern predictions. But on occasions, trends are able to be noted to support possible long term NAO tendency predictions. More on this subject will be discussed below on implications for the upcoming winter.

Of other importance note is the SO (Southern Oscillation) status of the 2009-2010 winter, which remains completely polarized from this current time last year. The strong El Nino peaked around mid December with SST anomalies near +2C SD for Nino region 3.4. Counter affects globally have been evident through the past six months, as one of the strongest El Ninos on record continues to have residual effects. Planet Earth so far has been dominated by global temperatures peaking near the highest mean on record since records have been kept since 1979. But this is very common with strong El Ninos. 1998 featured the hottest year on record globally, again directly correlated to the anomalous and infamous El Nino of that year. While strong El Ninos are typical to bring warm temperatures surging throughout a plethora of the United States during the winter, the anomalous negative NAO allowed the warmth to stay suppressed. El Ninos often feature an active subtropical jet, so the combination of upstream blocking and moisture from the south created the catalyst for the record snowfall.

But Fall 2010 is in a complete disposition from last year at this time. It was evident last winter was going to be a very snowy year for the Middle Atlantic with the predominant negative NAO and active southern stream courtesy of the El Nino. Tides have quickly changed this year making this seasonal forecast quite unique. First let me begin with a quick summary on the average Middle Atlantic region winter...

An average winter in Pennsylvania consists of many different types of winter weather. Winters in Pennsylvania are more severe than middle Atlantic winters and Ohio valley winters, but less severe than neighboring New England winters. On average the first snowflakes fall in mid to late October in the northwestern part of the state. And the last snowflakes typically fall in the northwestern part of the state in early May. Frost season lasts from early October to mid May in most areas. The geographic regions of Pennsylvania play a major part in snow totals and temperatures.

("Courtesy of NOAA")
There are two regions of Pennsylvania that see significantly higher snow totals than the rest of the state. The Laurel Highlands and Northwest Mountains see snow totals well over 100inches every winter. In extreme winters snow may be on the ground into June with seasonal totals of over 200inches. The seasonal snow total record is held in Corry, Pennsylvania of 237inches. The monthly snow total record is held in Blue Knob, Pennsylvania with 96inches of snow. Corry is found in the northwest mountains and Blue Knob is a ski resort found in the Laurel Highlands. Blue Knob is the highest ski able mountain in Pennsylvania. Below is a map of average seasonal snow totals in Pennsylvania.

("Courtesy of NOAA")
Different types of winter storms affect the state of Pennsylvania, clipper systems, lake effect snow outbreaks, nor'easters, advection snows, and etc. The coldest month is typically January statewide. And the snowiest month statewide is typically February. Northwest Pennsylvania typically sees a majority of their snows in Lake Effect snow outbreaks. While eastern Pennsylvania sees most of their snows from coastal storms. When coastal storms come up the coast many areas in Pennsylvania can see major snowstorms. The Poconos typically see the most snow from coastal storms due to their elevation aid to precipitation totals. Some of the greatest storm total snowfall records are actually held in eastern Pennsylvania and not in the northwest Snowbelt regions. The highest average seasonal snow average is found in Corry, Pennsylvania with an average of 118inches. While the low seasonal snow total is found in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania with 21inches of snow. As far as temperatures go the coldest temperatures are found in the Alleghany Plateau region with the lowest temperature every recorded in Pennsylvania was in Smethport with -42degrees. Temperatures typically dip below freezing every day from November to March statewide. Extreme cold outbreaks typically occur around mid to late January. At times warm thaws may occur, but they are rare and sparse. As for ice storms they typically occur in December when the sun's rays are at their lowest. Very odd winter weather features occur each year including thunder snows, etc. and thunder snows are like thunderstorms but with snow instead of rain. Snow rates up to 5inches can occur. Thunder snows are mostly likely associated with frontal passages and lake effect snows. As far as winds, typically northwest winds setup on the coldest of winter days and can gust up to 50mph. Wind chills as low as -25degrees are felt almost at least once in the mountains of Pennsylvania. On average winds gust to 30mph several times each month. For ice on waterways, many northern lakes and rivers solidly freeze every winter. For southern areas ice forms every winter, but does not necessarily become very thick. During extreme winters even southern regions can see ice thicknesses of over a foot. The most extreme winter storms that affect Pennsylvania are nor'easters though. They affect large areas of the state with high winds and heavy precipitation. On rare occasions snow totals of over 35inches have occurred with snowdrifts as high as 6ft in many areas of eastern Pennsylvania. Winters in Pennsylvania overall are relatively severe, with geographic regions playing a major part in average snow totals and cold temperatures. Weather for parts of Maryland and Delaware could be considered a bit more uniform due to the size of the states. Maryland is a bit more varied thanks to some unique geographic features. Western Maryland particularly in Garret County is home to some extremely heavy snow thanks to its favorable upslope location allowing orographic lift to aid in heavy snow over the 2000ft+ elevations. Over 100inches of snow falls each year in parts of the county near popular resort areas such as Deep Creek. Heading east in Maryland crosses several large mountain ranges near the Cumberland Gap, the Potomac Highlands, and the Blue Ridge Mountains heading towards Hagerstown which sees a varied snowfall each season averaging around 30inches of snow less than that of most of southern Pennsylvania, excluding Philadelphia. Heading south and east towards Baltimore and Washington DC snowfall totals immensely fall off to averages from 15-20inches with similar numbers in Delaware. The palliating effects of warmth from the Atlantic allow for slightly low totals as they featured more mixed precipitation events.

I am going to dive right into the heart of the forecast this year, but likely the most difficult... the ENSO regime. For those not familiar, the ENSO is a measure of sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific in correlation with direct and indirect monsoon precipitation trends. These anomalies and patterns often feature global affects and are used in long term weather pattern predictions. La Ninas featured cooler than normal SST anomalies, while El Ninos featured warmer than normal SST anomalies.

("Courtesy of NOAA")
Global computer models had been indicating the reemergence of a strong La Nina for this upcoming Fall by about the beginning of summer. The CFS clearly indicated the threat, but such a dramatic swing from one of the strongest El Ninos on record to a strong La Nina seemed unusual and unlikely. Well SST began to cool through the summer, and by the middle of June they were at the standard deviation threshold for being classified as a La Nina. But it remained unofficial, as those readings must stand for at least three months to be classified. Well three months later and SST anomalies remain well below normal. In fact I am bold enough to signal these anomalies as reaching the minimum strong threshold. The current ONI (Oceanic Nino Index) has already reached a JJA (June, July, August) reading of (-0.6) The ONI index is a general mean of the Nino region 3.4 sea surface temperatures. It is my favorite indicator to keep track of the ENSO status. For data back to 1950... Link. Interestingly enough referencing several strong La Ninas such as 2007-2008 already shows this current La Nina stronger at this date than those years.

Strong La Nina years for a JJA ONI Mean...
2007- (-0.4)
2000- (-0.4)
1954- (-0.8)
1950- (-0.8)

(Keep these years in the back of your mind). Dramatic swings in SST anomalies are difficult to note and few years remain similar. In fact what remains unique about this La Nina is actually the location. A weak westerly wind burst has actually favored a slight rise in sea surface temperatures on the western end of the measured equatorial Pacific regime. Currently the lower SSTs remain east based, and this appears to be making for an easterly based strong La Nina. What does this mean? Well essentially many are familiar hearing about the west-based El Nino of last winter. This helped to cause direct influences on the local weather patterns in the western hemisphere. But an east based ENSO event typically has slightly fewer influences being dispositional. Still though a strong La Nina will be a dominate player in the upcoming winter. What makes the forecast difficult is there are zero analogs that correspond to this year’s SST anomaly SST depressions. A few matches to 1950-1951 and 1954-1955 emerge, but that is all.

So first check is strong La Nina, but the most important driver in the winter regime is the highly variable teleconnective indices. First off, it is important to note the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) has resurged back down to negative values. This index monitors SST anomalies in the northern Pacific and can be closely followed based on 10-year trends. I had recent ideas that the PDO was beginning to show signs to tip to positive starting last fall, which it did courtesy of the El Nino. But now with it surging negative again, it is clear the decadal negative cycle has yet to end. A negative PDO is often associated with a warmer pattern for the central and eastern United States with cooler conditions to the west. It is closely in correspondence with the shorter term PNA (Pacific/North American Oscillation). Another teleconnection already mentioned is the NAO, which again is all interconnected with the other indices. Through most of the summer the PNA and NAO have been steady excluding an early August hiccup...

PNA...


NAO...


They have clearly pointed to a positive PNA and negative NAO regime. In winter, this would lean towards troughing over the east coast and ridging over the west coast of the United States. But during the summer, these teleconnections have a much less influence on the global wavelength pattern and therefore go unnoticed. It remains clear that the NAO generally remains dominated negatively. Last year in fact it reached the lowest negative reading in nearly fifty years during December and early January; this coupled with the United Kingdom featuring one of their coldest winters in nearly 30 years. While many say forecasting the NAO is highly impossible, I do feel there are a few important trends that can be detected. I have been monitoring monsoonal patterns in the Indian Ocean along with the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and have noted possible correlations to a continued negative NAO regime. I do believe the NAO will feature a general upswing pattern though by the end of December. While short swings to negative and positive and vice versa are possible... my general NAO forecast is...

December- (-1SD)
January- (-+0SD)
February- (+1.5SD)

This being said, I do not think the NAO will reach any negative anomaly such as that of last winter. Still, the NAO may be the saving grace for snowfall in the Middle Atlantic during favored wavelength periods. Also the AO (Arctic Oscillation) is another player and again has generally been negative to neutral through most of the Summer. I expect this continue through much of the winter. Recent satellite images and statistics continue to show increasing cooler temperatures in that region along with end to the rapid dwindling sea ice levels.


("Couresty of NSIDC)

As noted above, sea ice levels are relatively close to last years at this time and continue to remain higher than the record lows of 2007 and 2008. A continued upswing in levels is likely as the negative AO remains imminent for the next week or more. Eurasia snow levels also continue to remain near normal values and nothing of any worth noting. Same for Canadian snow levels, which are beginning to recover after a record low during this past winter and summer. Cooler air courtesy of the negative AO weather patterns have allowed for recent snowfall in the northern portions of that region. ECMWF and GFS guidance continue to indicate cooler than normal temperatures in this region, which will continue to aid in a building snowpack.

Of important and controversial note remains the solar field. Low sun spot cycle 21 continues to plague astronomers and climatologists on residual effects on planet Earth. The topic remains highly controversial as some completely disagree in any affects on global temperatures. But excluding the strong El Nino this summer, which allowed global temperatures to surge, the general global trend has been about a (-0.2)-(-0.4)C drop in global statosphere temperatures for this past decade under the extremely low sunspot regime. Activity continues to remain dull, with very little to no sunspot reports daily. My personal opinion remains that sunspots do affect climate globally. The sun is the catalyst for weather and energizes the Earth along with heat from the inner core. Any change in the solar output of the sun is bound to have some type of effect on the Earth's weather. The sunspot minima also argues against finding any analog with a strong La Nina coupled right after a strong El Nino. This will likely for tail some interesting weather patterns.


("Courtesy of SpaceWeather")

Global models continue to indicate a variable pattern through the winter with ECMWF monthly reports showing near normal precipitation and near normal temperatures for the three meteorological winter months. The CFS model also remains similar showing cooler conditions during the first half of winter followed by a warming trend towards February. It is though interesting to note, the CFS shows a definite favorability towards continued Greendland Blocking (negative NAO) and higher thermal heights over the western United States.


("Courtesy of NOAA")

Finally I just wanted to point out that I have been recently following GFS verification charts closely. As many already know, the GFS underwent a recent major upgrade increasing resolution, parameter boundaries, etc. The model has actually been performing quite well during the past weeks, especially in the tropics often outperforming the ECMWF. Recently for weather patterns across the Middle Atlantic, the convective feedback QPF problems have been eliminated and the model does not produce as many outrageous 384hr solutions. But please note... it does contain a WARM bias after 180hrs. Unlike the previous GFS, the updated GFS now as a warm long term bias instead of a cold bias.

So what does all of this information mean? Well it portrays the volatility of this upcoming winter season at its best. We have a strengthening east-based La Nina coupled with a negative NAO regime in a sunspot minima decade. Analogs are in relative inexistence this season, so global patterns will play the major role in the forecast. La Ninas often feature mild and sometimes very dry winters for the Middle Atlantic. In recent memory La Ninas have caused some very poor snowfall department winters especially along I-95. My forecast for this winter 2010-2011 will maintain an interesting and slightly uncertain approach.

Temperature Monthly Anomalies...
December- (+0.4F)
January- (+1.1F)
February- (+1.5F)

Snowfall Monthly Anomalies...
December- (115% of normal)
January- (90% of normal)
February- (45% of normal)

I am forecasting a very mild winter, especially towards the later half as the La Nina and pesky GOA (Gulf of Alaska) low undergo troughing over the western United States. But the negative NAO regime may allow for periods of snowy weather, especially in late November and December. The biggest question remains on how dry the weather pattern will be. The east-based La Nina tends to leave me to believe that we will avoid the normal La Nina dry spell for the most part, but this remains uncertain. I also believe there will be periods of severe arctic blasts, especially across the central northern Plains, which will likely average below to well below normal. The negative AO will offer these cold blasts, and they will modify moving eastward. This will allow for likely at least 2-3 one week periods in the Middle Atlantic this winter for very cold weather and near record lows at times. It is often common in La Nina patterns to receive this cold blasts behind storm systems that track through the Ohio Valley. But in general warmer patterns will prevail between the colder outbreaks. I am taking a variable storm track forecast this year with no preferred location. The pattern will be hostile and active with great temperature contrasts. Yes there will also be a dominate southeast ridge. The strength of this southeast ridging will determine the snowfall placements northwest of the low pressures along the east coast. I also believe it is possible to see a dramatic upswing in snowfall totals from the Mason-Dixon line on northward with dramatically lower totals to the south. For more information see winter of 2000-2001. The threat of several mix precipitation and ice storms remains higher than normal this year and will likely be featured several times this winter under cold air damming scenarios. All in all a general La Nina winter is likely courtesy of the anomalous strength already this early in the Fall. But important to note is the NAO and easterly placement of the SST deviations. This may allow the winter not too be a total disaster for many areas. For those expecting a record breaking winter, it is not likely for areas in the Middle Atlantic. New England may do fairly well, especially in northern portions which escaped the brunt of last winter. As always I will be busy posting away throughout the entire winter. My college application process is just about done, so I will finally begin to have some more free time just in time for my favorite weather season. Keep in mind out of my three winter outlooks, this one has the lowest confidence levels. So far the other three turned out well, so we shall see. As usual a verification blog will be posted at the end of the meteorological winter in February.

"Here north of Harrisburg 2010 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 12
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 10
Tornado Watches- 2
Tornado Warnings- 1
Total Thunderstorms- 18

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 4
Flood Warnings- 4
Monthly Precipitation- 3.10inches
Yearly Precipitation- 29.64inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 5
Excessive Heat Watches- 1
Excessive Heat Warnings- 1
90degree days- 38
Highest Temperature 101F (x2)

For the final section, I thought it would be interesting to post some archived maps of the four major nor'easters of our last winter from Penn State Meteo. EWall...
December 19, 2009...


February 6, 2010...


February 10, 2010...


February 26, 2010...


And finally time for the newly annual frost/freeze game! I will keep track of everyone's guess and post them on the blog. Then as each freeze event occurs we will look at who is the closest. When making your prediction please post the city and forecast date for the, at or below 32degree reading. Here are the following Middle Atlantic cities to make your predictions...

KTHV (York-Thomasville, PA)...
Tazmanian- October 7
Blizzard92- October 11
Wunderstorm87- October 15
TheRaspberryPatch - October 17

KMDT (Harrisburg-Middletown, PA)...
Tazmanian- October 7
Blizzard92- October 13
TheRaspberryPatch - October 16
Wunderstorm87- October 18

KBFD (Bradford, PA)...
Blizzard92- September 20
Wunderstorm87- September 27
TheRaspberryPatch - October 1
Tazmanian- October 12th

KPIT (Pittsburgh, PA)...
Blizzard92- September 21
Wunderstorm87- October 1
TheRaspberryPatch - October 3
Tazmanian- October 10th

KPHL (Philadelphia, PA)...
TheRaspberryPatch - October 22
Blizzard92- October 30
Wunderstorm87- November 4
Tazmanian- November 5th

KIAD (Dulles International-Washington, DC)...
TheRaspberryPatch - October 17
Blizzard92- November 1
Wunderstorm87- November 5
Tazmanian- November 5th

KHGR (Hagerstown, MD)...
Blizzard92- October 9
TheRaspberryPatch - October 11
Wunderstorm87- October 15

KBWI (Baltimore, MD)...
TheRaspberryPatch- October 17
Wunderstorm87- October 23
Blizzard92- October 25
Tazmanian- Oct 26th

KILG (Wilmington, DE)...
weathergeek5- October 22
Tazmanian- October 25th
TheRaspberryPatch - October 28
Blizzard92- October 30
Wunderstorm87- November 5

KSBY (Salisbury, MD)...
TheRaspberryPatch - November 4
Blizzard92- November 12
Tazmanian- November 12th
Wunderstorm87- November 23

KHGR (Hagerstown, MD)...
Blizzard92- October 9
TheRaspberryPatch - October 11
Wunderstorm87- October 15
Tazmanian- October 17th

"National Radar"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

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Blizz - did you see the latest from the White House about the term Global warming? if not take a look too funny
Link
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
Here in Stamford, not much wind problem, had some good lightning and heavy rain for 20 mins. or so. I received 0.55". Now just some sprinkles going on.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7500
Blizz - is that a front line coming through? and what is in store for the weekend?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
just realized you wrote that about the tornado, Blizz...what a crazy night in this city.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
Heard from a friend in Southern Brooklyn (Park Slope) and he thinks there was possibly a tornado there, but by the sounds of what he describes I don't think it was. It was definitely nastiest when I looked south, where the sky was green and rather frightening, so he saw the worst of it for Brooklyn it sounds like. He's the superintendent of his building and the roof of his garage/elevator (sounds strange, I know, but it used to be a car factory) was blown off and landed a block away...he watched it unfold and the whole thing totally caught him off guard. I think most people here were surprised by this line. I'm interested in seeing the news now, though I don't watch TV...this place called cyberspace is enough time waste for me.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
One inch of rain so far. Steady rain with some heavier down pours all afternoon but it has stooped, for now.
Member Since: December 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 118
TheRasberryPatch- Probably, but it will be weakening...


*Everyone just a reminder to turn in your frost/freeze selections :)
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Blizz - do you think this next line will make it to us and dump some rain. we sure could use a bit more
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
About one hour ago, a tornado touched down in Queens, NYC. There is considerable tree damage from some of the reports along with one fatality.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
We did have a tornado warning just south of us, a funnel cloud was seen a little further west on the border of PA and Ohio but that looks to have broken up some now. We are just getting some thunder and rain at this point.

Tornados in mid-September - go figure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Steady light rain here today, 0.17in so far.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Tremendous thunderstorm going on now in SW CT, draped southwestward into western LI. , and NJ. Will let you know about damage reports later. As well as rainfall amounts.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7500
Wow, that was the best thunderstorm I've seen in years. I wish I had an anemometer. Sky was green with hanging clouds that seemed destined for funnel status, I'm sure something came out of them at some point. I was taken by surprise a bit as I knew they were calling for storms this evening but when i looked over at Manhattan covered in a shroud of darkness, so that the upper half of the empire was pitch black, I knew I should check radar.

At the high point of the storm, there was a brief period of small hail, lasting about 20-30 seconds as the rain went horizontally and i watched people down on the street losing their umbrellas. Inevitable here. After any rainy/windy day in this city the streets look like the remains of an umbrella society who fought their final war against each other. Anyhow, that was exciting.

Who else felt the power of that line?

BTW, I'm afraid to look at my roof...lots of things were banging around up there...plant casualties are possible.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
Morning low temp of 35 here in Bantam Ct. this morning. Almost a frost!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The animals better be preparing for winter. They only have another month or two to gather seeds and what not before most food is gone.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
Here is my posts for frost/freeze

KTHV (York-Thomasville, PA)...
TheRaspberryPatch - October 17

KMDT (Harrisburg-Middletown, PA)...
TheRaspberryPatch - October 16

KBFD (Bradford, PA)...
TheRaspberryPatch - October 1

KPIT (Pittsburgh, PA)...
TheRaspberryPatch - October 3

KPHL (Philadelphia, PA)...
TheRaspberryPatch - October 22

KIAD (Dulles International-Washington, DC)...
TheRaspberryPatch - October 17

KHGR (Hagerstown, MD)...
TheRaspberryPatch - October 11

KBWI (Baltimore, MD)...
TheRaspberryPatch - October 17

KILG (Wilmington, DE)...
TheRaspberryPatch - October 28

KSBY (Salisbury, MD)...
TheRaspberryPatch - November 4

Ah, I forgot about them, lol. Thankyou!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Zotty, if you are on, how's the new "Digs" going?
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7500
Quoting Blizzard92:
My application has officially been turned in for Cornell University and SUNY Oswego! :)


Best of luck, Blizz. Thanks for the great post, too. That's interesting stuff to think about as old man winter approaches. I'll try to enjoy what is left of summer... Thanks again
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 738
Here is my posts for frost/freeze

KTHV (York-Thomasville, PA)...
TheRaspberryPatch - October 17

KMDT (Harrisburg-Middletown, PA)...
TheRaspberryPatch - October 16

KBFD (Bradford, PA)...
TheRaspberryPatch - October 1

KPIT (Pittsburgh, PA)...
TheRaspberryPatch - October 3

KPHL (Philadelphia, PA)...
TheRaspberryPatch - October 22

KIAD (Dulles International-Washington, DC)...
TheRaspberryPatch - October 17

KHGR (Hagerstown, MD)...
TheRaspberryPatch - October 11

KBWI (Baltimore, MD)...
TheRaspberryPatch - October 17

KILG (Wilmington, DE)...
TheRaspberryPatch - October 28

KSBY (Salisbury, MD)...
TheRaspberryPatch - November 4
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
Blizz - we have had some very nice days this week. you can't ask for much better. Probably why I love this time of year. I love all 4 seasons and find that each one is so unique for our area.
Good luck with your applications. I would guess they are a lot more involved then back in the 80's
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
Partly sunny here in stamford CT., 71F, very pleasent day here.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7500
Nice day here with sunshine and a high of 79F.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Thanks all!!!

SilverShipsofAndilar- Hahahaha... how did you know? So are you ready for a fun Nina winter?

weatherspotter1923- Thanks! Feel free to drop a comment by anytime. It would be great to have someone up from a lake effect snow belt!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Morning Blizz,

I too am a general lurker who reads your blog regularly in the winter. I live just a tad northeast of the "t" in the Lake Effect snow label on your map of PA, about halfway between the "t" and the "N" on the northern mountains label, above and have been hearing lots of noise about it being an interesting early winter/lake effect season for us up here.

I will drop in when I can to post snow totals and the like when we are getting hit with the white stuff.

Good luck with the colleges - you'd love Oswego, its white up there all winter!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Blizzard92:
My application has officially been turned in for Cornell University and SUNY Oswego! :)
We all knew you'd apply to Oswego after all that lake-effect snow they got four or five years ago. A nor'easter or two just isn't enough. Give him 12 inches, he wants 12 feet!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
You go Blizz! Good luck. By the way , here in Stamford, we only got light sprinkles again- hardly any rain.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7500
My application has officially been turned in for Cornell University and SUNY Oswego! :)
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
the amazing thing Blizz, with the weather we won't know until the after the winter what affect La Nina had on our weather. Didn't we have a few ice storms in December those years that you mentioned?

Yep! I think I even mentioned a heightened threat of ice storms this year is possible. Also I posted this on my fb...
I forgot to even mention my theory on the tropical correlation to SSTs in the north Atlantic. The increased hurricane activity in the northern Atlantic may cool SST anomalies allowing for an increase in upstream blocking in that region and enhance the negative NAO for a bit.

KEEPEROFTHEGATE- Awesome images! Thanks for posting!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
011L/MH/I/C4
MARK
17.94N/51.05W

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
the amazing thing Blizz, with the weather we won't know until the after the winter what affect La Nina had on our weather. Didn't we have a few ice storms in December those years that you mentioned?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
Quoting P451:
Excellent update, Blizz. What you outlined wouldn't surprise me one bit except for the continuous up and down winter. Where I am I expect some of the same but not as pronounced. A little more smoother...longer periods of warm along with occasional sharp cold snaps resulting in mostly rain and slush storms, the occasional ice storm, and maybe one decent snow storm and the usual few slushy inchers.

We will see how fall evolves.

---

Meanwhile up here in Westchester NY for a spell. Under a severe T-Storm watch with Warnings for the cells to our N/W. Sky darkening pretty good to the NW.

Seems one cell will slide to our east into west CT and western LI. A second intense cell seems it may slide to our west and into northern NJ.

Thanks! It depends the La Nina type winter we get. 2007-2008 featured steady warm temperatures followed by rain and cold front with a day of chilly weather. 2008-2009 was a bit more variable with a day of very warm weather followed by a day with really cold weather and so forth...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
that line of storms is headed directly for us...I'm thinking they'll actually make it here this time.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
Hello one and all, especially our host. Though you wouldn't know it, this is one of my daily stops, and of course last winter I was often visiting a dozen times a day or more.

I am going to de-lurk for a change, for a good cause. As I said in a comment I left over at Sully's dormant Northeast Weather blog last week:

"Much to my surprise and delight, NYCvort has been forecasting New York City area weather for the past month or so. He seems to know what he's been talking about and so far, I'm his only regular commenter.

If any of you are interested, here's the link to his blog.

Link

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/NYCvort/show.html

He deserves more thanks and cheerleading than I can provide, so I hope some of you will stop by."

****

Of course I know all of Blizz's readers will remain loyal here, but I did want to tell those of you who are interested in New York City weather that there's a blog covering that area.

Thanks,


Joan
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey,Blizz,love your winter outlooks,hard to believe we are at that time again,been a long hot summer.Its been so dry for so long,can't help thinking we will catch up either this fall or definitely this winter. We here in New England didn't get in on all that snow you guys had last winter.
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F1Man - Tennessee is going to be tough. They looked really good yesterday, even though it was against the Raiders. Even if the steelers make it 2-2 Ben will need a couple of games I think to get a feel for the game this year. I could be wrong, but I don't give the steelers much of a chance to make the playoffs with Ben out 4 games to start....that is very important
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
TRP- you're right, after i typed that i realized that was it. I would be happy to come out 2-2 when Big Ben comes back. Dixon needs the confidence to make throws in the pocket. Next week they play tennessee.
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
F1Man - you named just a couple of teams. And that is about it. For the steelers, had it not been for the last run they didn't do much in the run game. the steelers better hope Dixon picks up his game. at least the steelers played a weak team in their opener.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
TRP-Uh oh, a ravens fan?! this blog could get pretty heated when they player each other, but i'll try to keep it weather related haha. Not all teams gave up on the run, Houston is usually a pass only team and they ran quite a bit as did the steelers.
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
a miserable day here Blizz. seeing the lowlights of the Steelers game it appeared they, Pittsburgh, had a nice day.

I was listening to Bastardi a week or so ago on Fox, I think it was with Neil Cavuto. He was really good. It's amazing that more networks don't put him on, but I guess he would defeat their agenda. hahahaha


Of course the Steelers won their home opener. That's something like 8 in a row? They did better than I (and most Pittsburghers) expected. Nice game.
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
TheRasberryPatch- Yeah he is a good guy, although sometimes his theories can get a bit 'out there.' But I always like listening....

Hoynieva- Nice rain here today, 0.76in.

TheF1Man- Thanks! Yep, I am certainly get excited! The weather has been rather dull recently.

originalLT- That is the way you learn everything, from someone more knowledgeable than ourselves :)

Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
F1Man - No way. I was watching TRZ (The Red Zone channel on Directv) and a couple of times they went to that game. RAVENS all the way here.
Anyone that watched the games today there was way too much passing. Teams were giving up on the run game so fast and some teams couldn't run at all
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
Hi Blizz, I was not sure how your take would be on what Bastardi said, but I thought you'd like to read it. Always good to hear other's thoughts, especially when they are some what knowledgable.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7500
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
a miserable day here Blizz. seeing the lowlights of the Steelers game it appeared they, Pittsburgh, had a nice day.

I was listening to Bastardi a week or so ago on Fox, I think it was with Neil Cavuto. He was really good. It's amazing that more networks don't put him on, but I guess he would defeat their agenda. hahahaha


Very nice blog as always blizz! Can't believe winter talks are already here.

TRP are you a steelers fan?
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
Funny, about an hour or two after I wrote that this morning a steady drizzle developed, which turned into a soaking mist and eventually moderate rain showers. We were out and about and got totally soaked. It's still coming down at the moment. The radar doesn't pick it up very well, but it looks like ocean effect rain, if that's plausible, coming from the Southeast. A much needed soaking :)

And no worries, I understand your reasoning with the cities, Blizz...I'll play my own game :P

Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
a miserable day here Blizz. seeing the lowlights of the Steelers game it appeared they, Pittsburgh, had a nice day.

I was listening to Bastardi a week or so ago on Fox, I think it was with Neil Cavuto. He was really good. It's amazing that more networks don't put him on, but I guess he would defeat their agenda. hahahaha
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
originalLT- Not sure if I buy Bastardi's ideas... I do not really see any summer time warmth progged at the eastern seaboard. In fact many long term GFS runs have consistently showed temperatures for lows in the 30s by the end of the 16 day period. Ensembles show a potential for warmth, but even those signals are beginning to disappear.

Hoynieva- Thanks! Haha... sorry about your city. I tried to space out some of the larger ASOS stations in the Middle Atlantic. Rain or snow though this winter, it will always be fun.

upweatherdog- Thanks! Yep volatile is a good word to describe this winter.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Nice outlook!

This should be a interesting year, with all the climate variables almost canceling each other out. The CPC seems to be thinking that the main storm track will be through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, but we may just have a bunch of snowstorms with random tracks and really no pattern.

The weather is becoming more volatile 14-16 days out on the GFS! The pattern looks promising for some early season snows!
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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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