Winter Forecast 2010-2011

By: Zachary Labe , 9:06 PM GMT on September 11, 2010

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Winter Outlook 2010-2011...(December, January, February)


(South Mountain- 21 February 2010)

Ah, the sounds of shoveling and snow blowers in the early morning will soon become the norm as old man winter blows across the western hemisphere. After anomalous snowfall during the season of 2009-2010, a peak back at snowy years has quickly remerged in our short term memory banks. For those located along the I-95 corridor south of the Mason-Dixon line, historical odds show a near 1 in 200 chance of a another seasonal snowfall year such as the one before. For those north of that line, there have been several seasons which have featured snowier conditions than last season. None the less for many, the month of February will be one to tell the grandchildren after a series of low pressures matured off the eastern seaboard. The pattern was emphasized by a starkly negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation). The NAO is teleconnective value, which takes into account differing regions of air pressure in the northern Atlantic located near the Icelandic Low and Azores High Pressure. The strengths of these associated areas including positions affect the mean NAO throughout the entire year. As the polar jet begins to drop across the northern United States towards the winter months, the NAO has direct affects on long term wavelength patterns downstream dictating short term and long term weather patterns. Unfortunately the NAO is not able to be predicted accurately more than a two week period or so in advance, reducing its helpfulness it long term weather pattern predictions. But on occasions, trends are able to be noted to support possible long term NAO tendency predictions. More on this subject will be discussed below on implications for the upcoming winter.

Of other importance note is the SO (Southern Oscillation) status of the 2009-2010 winter, which remains completely polarized from this current time last year. The strong El Nino peaked around mid December with SST anomalies near +2C SD for Nino region 3.4. Counter affects globally have been evident through the past six months, as one of the strongest El Ninos on record continues to have residual effects. Planet Earth so far has been dominated by global temperatures peaking near the highest mean on record since records have been kept since 1979. But this is very common with strong El Ninos. 1998 featured the hottest year on record globally, again directly correlated to the anomalous and infamous El Nino of that year. While strong El Ninos are typical to bring warm temperatures surging throughout a plethora of the United States during the winter, the anomalous negative NAO allowed the warmth to stay suppressed. El Ninos often feature an active subtropical jet, so the combination of upstream blocking and moisture from the south created the catalyst for the record snowfall.

But Fall 2010 is in a complete disposition from last year at this time. It was evident last winter was going to be a very snowy year for the Middle Atlantic with the predominant negative NAO and active southern stream courtesy of the El Nino. Tides have quickly changed this year making this seasonal forecast quite unique. First let me begin with a quick summary on the average Middle Atlantic region winter...

An average winter in Pennsylvania consists of many different types of winter weather. Winters in Pennsylvania are more severe than middle Atlantic winters and Ohio valley winters, but less severe than neighboring New England winters. On average the first snowflakes fall in mid to late October in the northwestern part of the state. And the last snowflakes typically fall in the northwestern part of the state in early May. Frost season lasts from early October to mid May in most areas. The geographic regions of Pennsylvania play a major part in snow totals and temperatures.

("Courtesy of NOAA")
There are two regions of Pennsylvania that see significantly higher snow totals than the rest of the state. The Laurel Highlands and Northwest Mountains see snow totals well over 100inches every winter. In extreme winters snow may be on the ground into June with seasonal totals of over 200inches. The seasonal snow total record is held in Corry, Pennsylvania of 237inches. The monthly snow total record is held in Blue Knob, Pennsylvania with 96inches of snow. Corry is found in the northwest mountains and Blue Knob is a ski resort found in the Laurel Highlands. Blue Knob is the highest ski able mountain in Pennsylvania. Below is a map of average seasonal snow totals in Pennsylvania.

("Courtesy of NOAA")
Different types of winter storms affect the state of Pennsylvania, clipper systems, lake effect snow outbreaks, nor'easters, advection snows, and etc. The coldest month is typically January statewide. And the snowiest month statewide is typically February. Northwest Pennsylvania typically sees a majority of their snows in Lake Effect snow outbreaks. While eastern Pennsylvania sees most of their snows from coastal storms. When coastal storms come up the coast many areas in Pennsylvania can see major snowstorms. The Poconos typically see the most snow from coastal storms due to their elevation aid to precipitation totals. Some of the greatest storm total snowfall records are actually held in eastern Pennsylvania and not in the northwest Snowbelt regions. The highest average seasonal snow average is found in Corry, Pennsylvania with an average of 118inches. While the low seasonal snow total is found in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania with 21inches of snow. As far as temperatures go the coldest temperatures are found in the Alleghany Plateau region with the lowest temperature every recorded in Pennsylvania was in Smethport with -42degrees. Temperatures typically dip below freezing every day from November to March statewide. Extreme cold outbreaks typically occur around mid to late January. At times warm thaws may occur, but they are rare and sparse. As for ice storms they typically occur in December when the sun's rays are at their lowest. Very odd winter weather features occur each year including thunder snows, etc. and thunder snows are like thunderstorms but with snow instead of rain. Snow rates up to 5inches can occur. Thunder snows are mostly likely associated with frontal passages and lake effect snows. As far as winds, typically northwest winds setup on the coldest of winter days and can gust up to 50mph. Wind chills as low as -25degrees are felt almost at least once in the mountains of Pennsylvania. On average winds gust to 30mph several times each month. For ice on waterways, many northern lakes and rivers solidly freeze every winter. For southern areas ice forms every winter, but does not necessarily become very thick. During extreme winters even southern regions can see ice thicknesses of over a foot. The most extreme winter storms that affect Pennsylvania are nor'easters though. They affect large areas of the state with high winds and heavy precipitation. On rare occasions snow totals of over 35inches have occurred with snowdrifts as high as 6ft in many areas of eastern Pennsylvania. Winters in Pennsylvania overall are relatively severe, with geographic regions playing a major part in average snow totals and cold temperatures. Weather for parts of Maryland and Delaware could be considered a bit more uniform due to the size of the states. Maryland is a bit more varied thanks to some unique geographic features. Western Maryland particularly in Garret County is home to some extremely heavy snow thanks to its favorable upslope location allowing orographic lift to aid in heavy snow over the 2000ft+ elevations. Over 100inches of snow falls each year in parts of the county near popular resort areas such as Deep Creek. Heading east in Maryland crosses several large mountain ranges near the Cumberland Gap, the Potomac Highlands, and the Blue Ridge Mountains heading towards Hagerstown which sees a varied snowfall each season averaging around 30inches of snow less than that of most of southern Pennsylvania, excluding Philadelphia. Heading south and east towards Baltimore and Washington DC snowfall totals immensely fall off to averages from 15-20inches with similar numbers in Delaware. The palliating effects of warmth from the Atlantic allow for slightly low totals as they featured more mixed precipitation events.

I am going to dive right into the heart of the forecast this year, but likely the most difficult... the ENSO regime. For those not familiar, the ENSO is a measure of sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific in correlation with direct and indirect monsoon precipitation trends. These anomalies and patterns often feature global affects and are used in long term weather pattern predictions. La Ninas featured cooler than normal SST anomalies, while El Ninos featured warmer than normal SST anomalies.

("Courtesy of NOAA")
Global computer models had been indicating the reemergence of a strong La Nina for this upcoming Fall by about the beginning of summer. The CFS clearly indicated the threat, but such a dramatic swing from one of the strongest El Ninos on record to a strong La Nina seemed unusual and unlikely. Well SST began to cool through the summer, and by the middle of June they were at the standard deviation threshold for being classified as a La Nina. But it remained unofficial, as those readings must stand for at least three months to be classified. Well three months later and SST anomalies remain well below normal. In fact I am bold enough to signal these anomalies as reaching the minimum strong threshold. The current ONI (Oceanic Nino Index) has already reached a JJA (June, July, August) reading of (-0.6) The ONI index is a general mean of the Nino region 3.4 sea surface temperatures. It is my favorite indicator to keep track of the ENSO status. For data back to 1950... Link. Interestingly enough referencing several strong La Ninas such as 2007-2008 already shows this current La Nina stronger at this date than those years.

Strong La Nina years for a JJA ONI Mean...
2007- (-0.4)
2000- (-0.4)
1954- (-0.8)
1950- (-0.8)

(Keep these years in the back of your mind). Dramatic swings in SST anomalies are difficult to note and few years remain similar. In fact what remains unique about this La Nina is actually the location. A weak westerly wind burst has actually favored a slight rise in sea surface temperatures on the western end of the measured equatorial Pacific regime. Currently the lower SSTs remain east based, and this appears to be making for an easterly based strong La Nina. What does this mean? Well essentially many are familiar hearing about the west-based El Nino of last winter. This helped to cause direct influences on the local weather patterns in the western hemisphere. But an east based ENSO event typically has slightly fewer influences being dispositional. Still though a strong La Nina will be a dominate player in the upcoming winter. What makes the forecast difficult is there are zero analogs that correspond to this year’s SST anomaly SST depressions. A few matches to 1950-1951 and 1954-1955 emerge, but that is all.

So first check is strong La Nina, but the most important driver in the winter regime is the highly variable teleconnective indices. First off, it is important to note the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) has resurged back down to negative values. This index monitors SST anomalies in the northern Pacific and can be closely followed based on 10-year trends. I had recent ideas that the PDO was beginning to show signs to tip to positive starting last fall, which it did courtesy of the El Nino. But now with it surging negative again, it is clear the decadal negative cycle has yet to end. A negative PDO is often associated with a warmer pattern for the central and eastern United States with cooler conditions to the west. It is closely in correspondence with the shorter term PNA (Pacific/North American Oscillation). Another teleconnection already mentioned is the NAO, which again is all interconnected with the other indices. Through most of the summer the PNA and NAO have been steady excluding an early August hiccup...

PNA...


NAO...


They have clearly pointed to a positive PNA and negative NAO regime. In winter, this would lean towards troughing over the east coast and ridging over the west coast of the United States. But during the summer, these teleconnections have a much less influence on the global wavelength pattern and therefore go unnoticed. It remains clear that the NAO generally remains dominated negatively. Last year in fact it reached the lowest negative reading in nearly fifty years during December and early January; this coupled with the United Kingdom featuring one of their coldest winters in nearly 30 years. While many say forecasting the NAO is highly impossible, I do feel there are a few important trends that can be detected. I have been monitoring monsoonal patterns in the Indian Ocean along with the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and have noted possible correlations to a continued negative NAO regime. I do believe the NAO will feature a general upswing pattern though by the end of December. While short swings to negative and positive and vice versa are possible... my general NAO forecast is...

December- (-1SD)
January- (-+0SD)
February- (+1.5SD)

This being said, I do not think the NAO will reach any negative anomaly such as that of last winter. Still, the NAO may be the saving grace for snowfall in the Middle Atlantic during favored wavelength periods. Also the AO (Arctic Oscillation) is another player and again has generally been negative to neutral through most of the Summer. I expect this continue through much of the winter. Recent satellite images and statistics continue to show increasing cooler temperatures in that region along with end to the rapid dwindling sea ice levels.


("Couresty of NSIDC)

As noted above, sea ice levels are relatively close to last years at this time and continue to remain higher than the record lows of 2007 and 2008. A continued upswing in levels is likely as the negative AO remains imminent for the next week or more. Eurasia snow levels also continue to remain near normal values and nothing of any worth noting. Same for Canadian snow levels, which are beginning to recover after a record low during this past winter and summer. Cooler air courtesy of the negative AO weather patterns have allowed for recent snowfall in the northern portions of that region. ECMWF and GFS guidance continue to indicate cooler than normal temperatures in this region, which will continue to aid in a building snowpack.

Of important and controversial note remains the solar field. Low sun spot cycle 21 continues to plague astronomers and climatologists on residual effects on planet Earth. The topic remains highly controversial as some completely disagree in any affects on global temperatures. But excluding the strong El Nino this summer, which allowed global temperatures to surge, the general global trend has been about a (-0.2)-(-0.4)C drop in global statosphere temperatures for this past decade under the extremely low sunspot regime. Activity continues to remain dull, with very little to no sunspot reports daily. My personal opinion remains that sunspots do affect climate globally. The sun is the catalyst for weather and energizes the Earth along with heat from the inner core. Any change in the solar output of the sun is bound to have some type of effect on the Earth's weather. The sunspot minima also argues against finding any analog with a strong La Nina coupled right after a strong El Nino. This will likely for tail some interesting weather patterns.


("Courtesy of SpaceWeather")

Global models continue to indicate a variable pattern through the winter with ECMWF monthly reports showing near normal precipitation and near normal temperatures for the three meteorological winter months. The CFS model also remains similar showing cooler conditions during the first half of winter followed by a warming trend towards February. It is though interesting to note, the CFS shows a definite favorability towards continued Greendland Blocking (negative NAO) and higher thermal heights over the western United States.


("Courtesy of NOAA")

Finally I just wanted to point out that I have been recently following GFS verification charts closely. As many already know, the GFS underwent a recent major upgrade increasing resolution, parameter boundaries, etc. The model has actually been performing quite well during the past weeks, especially in the tropics often outperforming the ECMWF. Recently for weather patterns across the Middle Atlantic, the convective feedback QPF problems have been eliminated and the model does not produce as many outrageous 384hr solutions. But please note... it does contain a WARM bias after 180hrs. Unlike the previous GFS, the updated GFS now as a warm long term bias instead of a cold bias.

So what does all of this information mean? Well it portrays the volatility of this upcoming winter season at its best. We have a strengthening east-based La Nina coupled with a negative NAO regime in a sunspot minima decade. Analogs are in relative inexistence this season, so global patterns will play the major role in the forecast. La Ninas often feature mild and sometimes very dry winters for the Middle Atlantic. In recent memory La Ninas have caused some very poor snowfall department winters especially along I-95. My forecast for this winter 2010-2011 will maintain an interesting and slightly uncertain approach.

Temperature Monthly Anomalies...
December- (+0.4F)
January- (+1.1F)
February- (+1.5F)

Snowfall Monthly Anomalies...
December- (115% of normal)
January- (90% of normal)
February- (45% of normal)

I am forecasting a very mild winter, especially towards the later half as the La Nina and pesky GOA (Gulf of Alaska) low undergo troughing over the western United States. But the negative NAO regime may allow for periods of snowy weather, especially in late November and December. The biggest question remains on how dry the weather pattern will be. The east-based La Nina tends to leave me to believe that we will avoid the normal La Nina dry spell for the most part, but this remains uncertain. I also believe there will be periods of severe arctic blasts, especially across the central northern Plains, which will likely average below to well below normal. The negative AO will offer these cold blasts, and they will modify moving eastward. This will allow for likely at least 2-3 one week periods in the Middle Atlantic this winter for very cold weather and near record lows at times. It is often common in La Nina patterns to receive this cold blasts behind storm systems that track through the Ohio Valley. But in general warmer patterns will prevail between the colder outbreaks. I am taking a variable storm track forecast this year with no preferred location. The pattern will be hostile and active with great temperature contrasts. Yes there will also be a dominate southeast ridge. The strength of this southeast ridging will determine the snowfall placements northwest of the low pressures along the east coast. I also believe it is possible to see a dramatic upswing in snowfall totals from the Mason-Dixon line on northward with dramatically lower totals to the south. For more information see winter of 2000-2001. The threat of several mix precipitation and ice storms remains higher than normal this year and will likely be featured several times this winter under cold air damming scenarios. All in all a general La Nina winter is likely courtesy of the anomalous strength already this early in the Fall. But important to note is the NAO and easterly placement of the SST deviations. This may allow the winter not too be a total disaster for many areas. For those expecting a record breaking winter, it is not likely for areas in the Middle Atlantic. New England may do fairly well, especially in northern portions which escaped the brunt of last winter. As always I will be busy posting away throughout the entire winter. My college application process is just about done, so I will finally begin to have some more free time just in time for my favorite weather season. Keep in mind out of my three winter outlooks, this one has the lowest confidence levels. So far the other three turned out well, so we shall see. As usual a verification blog will be posted at the end of the meteorological winter in February.

"Here north of Harrisburg 2010 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 12
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 10
Tornado Watches- 2
Tornado Warnings- 1
Total Thunderstorms- 18

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 4
Flood Warnings- 4
Monthly Precipitation- 3.10inches
Yearly Precipitation- 29.64inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 5
Excessive Heat Watches- 1
Excessive Heat Warnings- 1
90degree days- 38
Highest Temperature 101F (x2)

For the final section, I thought it would be interesting to post some archived maps of the four major nor'easters of our last winter from Penn State Meteo. EWall...
December 19, 2009...


February 6, 2010...


February 10, 2010...


February 26, 2010...


And finally time for the newly annual frost/freeze game! I will keep track of everyone's guess and post them on the blog. Then as each freeze event occurs we will look at who is the closest. When making your prediction please post the city and forecast date for the, at or below 32degree reading. Here are the following Middle Atlantic cities to make your predictions...

KTHV (York-Thomasville, PA)...
Tazmanian- October 7
Blizzard92- October 11
Wunderstorm87- October 15
TheRaspberryPatch - October 17

KMDT (Harrisburg-Middletown, PA)...
Tazmanian- October 7
Blizzard92- October 13
TheRaspberryPatch - October 16
Wunderstorm87- October 18

KBFD (Bradford, PA)...
Blizzard92- September 20
Wunderstorm87- September 27
TheRaspberryPatch - October 1
Tazmanian- October 12th

KPIT (Pittsburgh, PA)...
Blizzard92- September 21
Wunderstorm87- October 1
TheRaspberryPatch - October 3
Tazmanian- October 10th

KPHL (Philadelphia, PA)...
TheRaspberryPatch - October 22
Blizzard92- October 30
Wunderstorm87- November 4
Tazmanian- November 5th

KIAD (Dulles International-Washington, DC)...
TheRaspberryPatch - October 17
Blizzard92- November 1
Wunderstorm87- November 5
Tazmanian- November 5th

KHGR (Hagerstown, MD)...
Blizzard92- October 9
TheRaspberryPatch - October 11
Wunderstorm87- October 15

KBWI (Baltimore, MD)...
TheRaspberryPatch- October 17
Wunderstorm87- October 23
Blizzard92- October 25
Tazmanian- Oct 26th

KILG (Wilmington, DE)...
weathergeek5- October 22
Tazmanian- October 25th
TheRaspberryPatch - October 28
Blizzard92- October 30
Wunderstorm87- November 5

KSBY (Salisbury, MD)...
TheRaspberryPatch - November 4
Blizzard92- November 12
Tazmanian- November 12th
Wunderstorm87- November 23

KHGR (Hagerstown, MD)...
Blizzard92- October 9
TheRaspberryPatch - October 11
Wunderstorm87- October 15
Tazmanian- October 17th

"National Radar"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

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Here in Stamford CT., alot of rain passed up to our east, and alot went by to our west, moving almost due north, we got only, 0.55" from the whole event.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7500
Blizz- They came right over us, but weakened before they got here.

Batch is ready!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting baxtheweatherman:
I've been sooo busy lately. 1.4in in the rain gauge is a welcome sight, plus more to come later this week. The leaves are getting their color and should improve after this cold weekend.

Flacco better watch out for the Tasmanian Devil(Palamalu) Sunday!

I am sure Flacco is shaking in his cleats right now. woooooooh
If anyone better watch out it is Batch, the second string second string or whatever QB.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
Quoting baxtheweatherman:
I've been sooo busy lately. 1.4in in the rain gauge is a welcome sight, plus more to come later this week. The leaves are getting their color and should improve after this cold weekend.

Flacco better watch out for the Tasmanian Devil(Palamalu) Sunday!

Did those severe storms miss you to your south? I saw a few wind damage reports this morning out of Somerset County.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
I've been sooo busy lately. 1.4in in the rain gauge is a welcome sight, plus more to come later this week. The leaves are getting their color and should improve after this cold weekend.

Flacco better watch out for the Tasmanian Devil(Palamalu) Sunday!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nice to see you back Mason. It will be good to see your reports again.

Blizz - thanks for the forecast for the weekend.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
F1 - your team has barely scored in the previous 2 games. Against TB I don't know how some of those TD passes weren't INT's for TB. As usual it will be a hard fought game. I just hope the refs don't screw it up. For some reason they don't like the Ravens. Some of the calls against them are truly atrocious. But as most people that aren't Ravens fans will think the refs are fair.

The Squealers remind me of Duke. The refs just fall all over them and give them favorable calls.


i agree 100%
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
F1 - your team has barely scored in the previous 2 games. Against TB I don't know how some of those TD passes weren't INT's for TB. As usual it will be a hard fought game. I just hope the refs don't screw it up. For some reason they don't like the Ravens. Some of the calls against them are truly atrocious. But as most people that aren't Ravens fans will think the refs are fair.

The Squealers remind me of Duke. The refs just fall all over them and give them favorable calls.


We shall see TRP... I expect a great game and great things from the Steeler D.

Cool light rain to mist all day. Very October-ish.
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
Thanks Blizz.

breezy for the weekend? 10-15mph? how about the game on Sunday?

Yep, quite breezy and cool this weekend as a northwest flow dominates. Gusts upwards of 20-30mph on Saturday with temperatures in the low 60s.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
F1 - your team has barely scored in the previous 2 games. Against TB I don't know how some of those TD passes weren't INT's for TB. As usual it will be a hard fought game. I just hope the refs don't screw it up. For some reason they don't like the Ravens. Some of the calls against them are truly atrocious. But as most people that aren't Ravens fans will think the refs are fair.

The Squealers remind me of Duke. The refs just fall all over them and give them favorable calls.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
Quoting Mason803:
What's up blizz and everyone else!! Man have i been busy this summer and early fall. Things are starting to break for me now. Anyway, how bout that much needed rain. The south mountain region averaged 2" to 2.75" with 2.18" being my total. The next one looks downright scary if some of these qpf maps verify.



LOL I know the nam had feedback issues but it's still a cool map to look out

Hey! I was wondering where you were. Yep, looks like quite a bit of rain. NAM has been having some convective feedback today, so I bet that is a bit too much QPF.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
What's up blizz and everyone!! Man have i been busy this summer and early fall. Things are starting to break for me now. Anyway, how bout that much needed rain. The south mountain region averaged 2" to 2.75" with 2.18" being my total. The next one looks downright scary if some of these qpf maps verify.



LOL I know the nam had feedback issues but it's still a cool map to look out
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
Wow, Blizz...you really got hit hard with the first round. Is that with your Cocorahs rain gauge or Davis?

I was reading a bit of Matt Noyes twitter and he has said lately American guidance has been atrocious lately. and he also says outside of 30 hours the pattern is tough to forecast. he says some guidance is showing some area in Mid Atlantic with 10" or so. say it ain't so?

also, any time frame on when the system will be out of our way? low 60's for the weekend sound right? any wind this weekend? how about weather for the RAVENS vs squeallers game?



I see how its going to be TRP. But can you say 3-0 going 4-0?
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
I have a feeling this year at least for New England will be a Cold and Snowy Year and I think it will start early. Having La Nina in place right now it will for sure send us into a cold and snowy winter. Amounts whether it will be more than avg or less I am not sure. That is something to really indulge into.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
197. zotty
P- late response, thanks for the post on what to look for- hail vs strong winds. no holes in leaves, so I guess it was just blustery like. Thanks!
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 738
196. zotty
Quoting PalmyraPunishment:
I'm selling hovercrafts. Any interest?


haha- warming up for the winter season. i like it
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 738
Thanks Blizz.

breezy for the weekend? 10-15mph? how about the game on Sunday?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
I see the lines of strong cells are appearing on radar now. Far West of where I am, but it's becoming clear why they put that tornado watch out several hours in advance.

PP, how much for the hovercraft? ;)
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
TheRasberryPatch- GFS has actually been pretty fantastic on recent NCEP verification charts after its upgrade early this summer. In fact it has outperformed the ECMWF on numerous occassions. The NAM on the other hand suffered some initiation problems so today's runs are a bit of a mess. None the less heavy rain is headed our way (I wish I had time to type up a discussion as this is a pretty interested inverted trough setup). Gusty winds will also accompany the rain. This weekend will be chilly, but the high will be too displaced to the west to allow for ideal radiational cooling therefore limiting our threat for frost.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
I'm selling hovercrafts. Any interest?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow, Blizz...you really got hit hard with the first round. Is that with your Cocorahs rain gauge or Davis?

I was reading a bit of Matt Noyes twitter and he has said lately American guidance has been atrocious lately. and he also says outside of 30 hours the pattern is tough to forecast. he says some guidance is showing some area in Mid Atlantic with 10" or so. say it ain't so?

also, any time frame on when the system will be out of our way? low 60's for the weekend sound right? any wind this weekend? how about weather for the RAVENS vs squeallers game?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
so far for this round of rain....I emptied the Cocorahs yesterday morning @ 730 and had 0.14". I emptied it this morning same time with 0.75". for a total so far of 0.89". Not bad at all.

Thanks for the heads up Blizz. When you say eastern part of PA does that include south central?

Yep, in fact some guidance moved a bit west. GFS/ECMWF is really smacking us with rainfall for this second system as P451 outlined the track below. My storm total is 2.02in of rain from this first round.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Wow, we're under a tornado watch until 6PM...wasn't expecting that.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
Poor Carolinas...they were slammed yesterday and are probably going to get round 2 later this week...
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
In addition to the current low pressure over us and the heavy rain which Blizz talks about on Thursday, I'm guessing some of these tropical disturbances will be heading up the East Coast right at us over the next couple of weeks. The current disturbance in the Western Caribbean seems destined to become a TD sometime today and possibly a cat 1 hurricane as it approaches Florida. The steering currents are right up the coast, and they're expecting the Caribbean to immediately recharge and send another storm, perhaps larger, up sometime in the next 2 weeks.

Here's all that rain everyone has been begging for. All at once, as seems usual for precipitation the past couple of years around here. What a drag.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
so far for this round of rain....I emptied the Cocorahs yesterday morning @ 730 and had 0.14". I emptied it this morning same time with 0.75". for a total so far of 0.89". Not bad at all.

Thanks for the heads up Blizz. When you say eastern part of PA does that include south central?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6256
Overnight 0z and 6z GFS/NAM/ECMWF runs are really heightening the threat of the tropical remnant low for Thursday showing now very heavy rain over much of the Middle Atlantic with plumes of 4-5in of rain for the eastern half of Pennsylvania. The low track remains uncertain, so the axis of heavy rain in the inverted trough remains unknown. But many areas will need to monitor this situation closely for flash flooding in the Wednesday night through Thursday night time frame. Again isolated severe weather is a threat too.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Post 166 (P451) That is the single best IR satellite loop I have ever seen. Thank you for posting that as I will certainly bookmark that site for future use.

It didn't load in Firefox 4.0 b6 but I got it to work in Chrome and it didn't take all that long to load.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
OriginalLt, Yes! the squirrels up here are everywhere and acorns have been raining from the sky. They've been feasting quite well i agree. Doesn't that have something to do with the farmer's almanac predictions? Or a large amount of acorns only fall once every few years. Anyone know how that works?
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
It looks like TheRaspberryPatch wins the frost/freeze prediction for KBFD/Bedford. It doesn't appear as though any part of PA will get a good shot at freezing temperatures until at least Sunday night.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
TheF1Man, noticed the same thing down here in Stamford, not many mosquitos this year, and less crickets. Do not hear many at night despite no real bad cold snaps. Last year I believe they were chirping up to early November. Maybe it was just too dry. We did have a tremendous "crop" of acorns. Very large and very plentiful. We do have alot of very fat squirrels though!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7500
PPN etal

Pest guy said not much they can do. Buggers sleep in winter cold won't do it.
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2774
PPN : pest control here Sat. This weekend was migration period for the stinkers. PA with a big problem and moving east as far as Freehold.

P had about .4 in this am little more now. Saw your posts on Doc's blog. Wonder if part of the Time it takes for a reorganization in the Carribean is due to equibrilation of SST's in the wake of Matthew. Assume five to seven days say conditions for sea temps might be favorable.
LSU is behind about 8 days.
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2774
onoweather- Hey! Nice to see everyone stopping in! Hope you will be here more for the winter for your input. Up to 1.37in of rain here so far.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
2 E PARADISE LANCASTER PA 4000 7608 KIZNER FIRE DEPT REPORTED TREES DOWN AND PARTIAL DAMAGE TO A BARN ROOF NEAR VINTAGE. DAMAGE MAY HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK BRIEF LOW-TOPPED TORNADO. (CTP)
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
blizz- I haven't been on in a while. I hope you had a wonderful summer and are ready for another winter. Hopefully this rain puts a damper on the stink bug situation!
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Heavy rain here currently... 0.82in of rain so far.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Its been so dry to that the mosquitos just cant grow. Even usual swamps dried up a bit. I live in the woods and noticed a massive lack of bugs this summer.
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
Quoting pittsburghnurse:
Need a killing frost... killing for the stink bugs that is.


BAH! Yes! Please! Haven't seen any all summer, but in just the last few days they've been descending upon my house in droves. It's not Biblical . . . yet.
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Quoting Blizzard92:

Hey, thanks! Wow, long time since I have heard from you! Hope you return this winter!



***I really had hoped to get a new blog out, but it was homecoming weekend so it was quite busy. In anycase a surge of tropical moisture will allow for a rainy next few days especially along the eastern Appalachians courtesy of orographic lift. Also strong winds aloft may mix down to the surface with an elevated convective band Tuesday. QPF totals will range from 1-3in by Tuesday night for many areas in the Middle Atlantic.


Just what we needed!
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
Quoting Stormfront:
Just read you winter 2010-2011 forcast blog, Bliz....Great reasearch and input. Proud of you!

Hey, thanks! Wow, long time since I have heard from you! Hope you return this winter!



***I really had hoped to get a new blog out, but it was homecoming weekend so it was quite busy. In anycase a surge of tropical moisture will allow for a rainy next few days especially along the eastern Appalachians courtesy of orographic lift. Also strong winds aloft may mix down to the surface with an elevated convective band Tuesday. QPF totals will range from 1-3in by Tuesday night for many areas in the Middle Atlantic.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
Just read you winter 2010-2011 forcast blog, Bliz....Great reasearch and input. Proud of you!
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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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Personal Weather Stations

Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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