Unusual warm again and tropical trouble...

By: Zachary Labe , 8:19 PM GMT on August 28, 2010

Share this Blog
0
+

In a few short days the meteorological summer will be only a recent memory. It is already evident seasonal changes are quickly abrupt considering darkness arrives before 8pm allowing for shorter days. Nights are starting too cool off as the first 30s and 40s have appeared for many areas already. Morning fog is also a typical morning nuisance as common with the Fall season courtesy of differing land/water temperatures from radiational cooling. Summer 2010 will be defined as a very hot summer setting many records across the eastern seaboard. After the anomalous snowfall of February 2010, monthly temperature anomalies have been a constant above normal.

KMDT...
March- (+5.8F)
April- (+4.1F)
May- (+3.0F)
June- (+4.1F)
July- (+3.4F)
August- (+1.9F) Preliminary

Scores of high temperatures have been broken across the Northeast as temperatures soared into the 100s for the first time for many areas since 2002. For many, July 6 was the peak of the heat with most ASOS stations reporting temperatures of 100F or higher. My PWS even reached 101F, the highest since the station has been automated back in 2007.


Fig. 1- Unlike many heatwaves for the eastern US which derive out of the southwest, these abnormal thickness developed from a bubble of high pressure (heat dome) directly over the Middle Atlantic. Therefore the eastern US featured the highest temperatures and the Midwest avoided the heatwave. This was common for many of the heatwaves this summer, but this particular map above is thickness from July 6.

This abnormal warmth can likely be directly correlated to a very unusually warm winter in Canada. General jet stream wavelengths favor airmasses moving from Canada into the United States for most seasons because our trade winds blow west to east in this part of the hemisphere. Canada featured one of its warmest winters on record with a very low snow cover and depth nationwide. Alaska also featured a very mild winter with even only 22in of snow in Fairbanks, AK. Therefore there has been very little cool air in Canada to alleviate the abnormal warmth downstream in the United States. While a few backdoor cold fronts did occur sparking some severe weather, in general the progression of cold frontal passages through the Middle Atlantic was below normal. But the summer of 2010 has allowed for a bit of cooling in the Arctic despite continuing sea ice melting, including the opening of the Northwest Passage.


Fig. 2- Current sea ice levels remain similar to numbers at this current time last year.

As we wrap-up discussions on the abnormal warmth in the northern Middle Atlantic, another five day heatwave bears down on the east coast. Current H85 thermals progged from the GFS indicate a pocket of x>20C temperatures during the peak of the heat Wednesday and Thursday. While the availability of the heat begins to become more limited as we enter September, a few records remain in the upper 90s to 100F for this time period, so abnormal warmth is certainly not unprecidented. The upcoming period will be hot, but with dry humidity levels. PWATs aloft and H7 moisture anomalies will remain very low all week and the flow out of the southwest from the Gulf of Mexico remains interrupted. Therefore humidity levels will stay low allowing dewpoints to remain in the 50s and 60s. Therefore these dewpoints combined with temperatures in the low 90s will actually make it feel slightly cooler on the body. Heat indices will be in the upper 80s to 90F all week, despite a few locations that could see high temperatures top 95F especially towards Washington DC. These 90F days will just adding to the impressive of 90F highs this year which is already topping 30 here in Harrisburg. Current MOS output forecast highs for Washington DC for upcoming days...

Sunday~ 90F
Monday~ 95F

The forecast remains simple for the Sunday through Thursday time frame for all areas.... sunshine with patchy morning fog with lows in the 50s, followed by increasing heat with highs near or slightly above 90F. Elevations above 2000ft will remain in the mid to upper 80s.

A dry cold front passes through Thursday night alleviating this abnormal warmth and probably making this 5-day heat wave, the last of its kind for another many months.


Fig. 3- Current GFS/ECMWF 10-day median thickness anomalies indicate possible troughing over the East Coast towards early to mid September. In fact at this point, it appears temperatures may be on the cool side towards Labor Day.

By the end of the month though I do expect September to probably range ~(+)1F above normal for most areas temperature wise with below normal precipitation.


Fig. 4- 12z ECMWF ensembles continue to indicate a negative west based NAO, but NAO affects as far as Northeast troughing usually do not directly correlate until October onward through winter. The NAO has relatively limited effects during the summer for boundary layer temperatures. For instance most of the summer has featured above normal temperatures despite a negative NAO most of the summer.

With ridging over most of the east coast (note the building of a possible southeast ridge already), most areas in the next two weeks will feature above normal temperatures with a possible quick reprieve of cooler temperatures around Labor Day. Also conditions look abnormally dry. Current 28 August 2010 12utc GFS only prints out .17in for KMDT in the 16-day QPF meteogram.

Finally while the boring weather pattern continues for the northern Middle Atlantic, the tropics begin to pose a possible threat to the east coast. Hurricane Danielle will continue to swirl swinging well offshore from Bermuda. Despite this the increasing surf will be common along the eastern seaboard and here in the northern Middle Atlantic along the Delaware and Maryland shorelines. WaveWatchIII model indicates swells on the order of 5-7ft for Atlantic coastlines in Maryland and Delaware. This will cause a bit of beach erosion and an increased rip current threat. The tropical system Earl is shortly behind Danielle and will come slightly closer to the East Coast, but a trough moving through the NOCONUS will aid in swinging the storm system likely between Bermuda and the United States. Recent GFS prognostics have occasionally hinted at a close proximity of Earl and areas such as Cape Cod, but I think the model is not swinging the trough through fast enough. At this time I think the main threats will be beach erosion and increased surf as this storm too, passes well offshore. Still though as anything with tropics, it remains highly uncertain. Finally 97L will likely be named Fiona in the coming days and will follow a track south of its formers. This will take it very close to the Antilles posing another tropical threat to those islands after Earl. During that time the synoptic wavelength pattern favors a southeast ridge over the eastern United States with a weak trough over the extreme northern Great Lakes moving east. This remains nearly 10-days out, but the general pattern can already be highlighted. This storm bares monitoring a bit more closely for those along the East Coast as several ECMWF runs have noted possible landfalls for the east coast from Fiona. It is all a matter of timing and whether the storm can pick up the weakeness in the trough to be carried northward. But what the ECMWF has been noting along with the ECMWF ensembles is that Fiona tracks far enough south to avoid the trough posing a threat to the Southeast and then tracking north and swinging up the coast.


Fig. 5- Current 28 August 2010 12utc 240hr ECMWF featuring South Carolina landfall of Fiona.

Right now historical odds actually do not favor a landfall based on the current position of 97L. But still those along the eastern seaboard will need to monitor this system closely. At this point I am not making any forecast as it remains well off in the distance, but it certainly has grabbed my attention if that means anything. None the less the three tropical system wills eventually make their way towards the North Atlantic shipping lanes. The tracks of these systems will likely cause a dramatic cooling of the anomalous warm Atlantic SSTs. Also these storms as the increase in altitude, may affect teleconnections and upstream blocking in this region. This may cause a few variables in the long term weather pattern; stay tuned. For now those along the East Coast can at the minimum expect increased surf, slight beach erosion, and a high threat of rip currents. I will have more on the tropical threat later this week. For now enjoy the 5-day heatwave and sunshine this week with dry weather.

Regional updating radar...


"Here north of Harrisburg 2010 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 11
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 10
Tornado Watches- 1
Tornado Warnings- 1
Total Thunderstorms- 17

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 3
Flood Warnings- 2
Monthly Precipitation- 0.00inches
Yearly Precipitation- 26.54inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 5
Excessive Heat Watches- 1
Excessive Heat Warnings- 1
90degree days- 37
Highest Temperature 101F (x2)

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 160 - 110

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4Blog Index

160. mick1946
6:03 PM GMT on September 27, 2010
I do believe the sunspot cycle is now moving to the active side. I also think the polar ice and snow packs thickening up indicates the Mid Atlantic and Northeasr regions will be colder and drier this winter.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
159. upweatherdog
7:31 PM GMT on September 11, 2010
I really do not thing that there will be any hurrricane landfalls on the United States this year.

The MJO is unfavorable for tropical development over ther western Atlantic, but favors more tropical development off the coast of Africa. The negative NAO favors troughing in the eastern CONUS, which would deflect any hurricanes northeast out to sea.

With the La Nina setting in, a trough is located over the western CONUS, with a ridge downstream over the central CONUS. This ridge is deflecting tropical systems into Mexico.

This pattern looks to continue for the next month or two, and by the time the MJO and teleconnections become more favorable, it will be well past the peak of hurricane season.
Member Since: October 14, 2007 Posts: 173 Comments: 1372
158. goofyrider
3:35 PM GMT on September 11, 2010
40,-74
Nice here

sunny slight breeze low 70's
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2957
157. originalLT
12:15 PM GMT on September 11, 2010
Yeah, yesterday was much cloudier again than I thought it would be ,but we still had some sun. Today should be alot sunnier and milder with highs in the mid to upper 70's. 911 today, we all remember.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
155. TheF1Man
1:29 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting Blizzard92:

I always like a northwest flow day with widespread strato-cumulus. It reminds me of my favorite month October. And after all of this dry sunshine, it is not like we have not seen sun for a while, lol.


Lol i was thinking the same thing, just in different terms. After having so much sun it felt strange not to have any! It definatly felt like a fall day. This morning is beautiful: crisp cool air, sunshine coming through and hardly any wind.
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 685
154. Zachary Labe
9:45 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting TheF1Man:


Really? would have been perfect if the sun was out, had clouds all day here in springfield. Turning breezy now...

I always like a northwest flow day with widespread strato-cumulus. It reminds me of my favorite month October. And after all of this dry sunshine, it is not like we have not seen sun for a while, lol.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
153. originalLT
4:01 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Yeah, I had much more clouds than sun here too in Stamford,By evening though the clouds were dissapating. My high was 70F. Its 61F now at midnight, should be sunnier on Fri. and Sat. 70-75F Fri. and 75-80F on Sat.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
152. TheF1Man
9:02 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting Blizzard92:
Beautiful day here with a high of 72F and nice northwest breeze.


Really? would have been perfect if the sun was out, had clouds all day here in springfield. Turning breezy now...
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 685
151. Hoynieva
8:14 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Wow, P451, some interesting stuff happening in your life. Some might say it's a sign and tell you to take it easy for a while, but it's likely mere coincidences. Either way, wow, live it up :)
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1521
150. Zachary Labe
7:29 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Beautiful day here with a high of 72F and nice northwest breeze.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
149. TheRasberryPatch
11:25 AM GMT on September 09, 2010
0.5" will help. I want to aerate my yard after this seasons conditions that allowed the weeds to really come into the grass. as long as the ground is dry it's really not worth aerating, not to mention you won't get much of a plug.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
148. Zachary Labe
9:44 AM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting TheF1Man:


We need rain

This weekend there is a bit possible. 0z ECMWF indicated about .5in of rain for many areas.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
147. TheF1Man
2:58 AM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting Blizzard92:

Not too much, 16 day 18z GFS QPF totals are 0.92in for KMDT.


We need rain
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 685
146. Zachary Labe
1:46 AM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
Blizz - we have been very dry the past month. any chance of some rain in the forecast?

Not too much, 16 day 18z GFS QPF totals are 0.92in for KMDT.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
145. originalLT
12:19 AM GMT on September 09, 2010
Has been a beautiful, albeit, boring stretch of weather. Today we had a low of 70F and a high of 89F. Also we had 0.20" of rain this morning from a line of showers that came through, a cold front. Only now has it started to cool off with a nice Northwesterly breeze. Should be mostly sunny and nice for at least 3 days, highs in the 70's lows here in the 50's.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
144. TheRasberryPatch
10:33 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Blizz - we have been very dry the past month. any chance of some rain in the forecast?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
143. Zachary Labe
10:21 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Ugh, September is such a boring weather month... more so like April. Once we hit the cooler temperatures and changing leaves of October, things start to live up a bit.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
142. zotty
9:44 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
P451- First the cop places you under arrest, then you make a save and some dude tries to beat you up... and then someone else tries to run you off the road...I am beginning to think this is a conspiracy, masterminded by David Hasselhoff, who trying to scare you away from his job and your true calling- lifeguard at Bay Head.

Any Pam Anderson's around the beach we should all know about (and feel free to post pictures)?
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 778
141. Zachary Labe
8:25 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
P451- Ugh, best idea seems to be hide in a closet, lol.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
140. SilverShipsofAndilar
7:24 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Relatively, 49,000 is definitely a buzz. Practically a direct hit when you consider the vastness of space. Would have been a fantastic sight if one of these things had rocketed into the full moon at night. It would have been more newsworthy, though, if the scientists had announced it with a possibility of error around plus or minus 45,000 miles.
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
139. originalLT
6:17 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
You are right Silverships, these events do happen quite often. NBD.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
138. originalLT
3:47 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
I hear ya Silverships, just reporting on what I heard. In galactic terms, 49000 miles is pretty close.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
137. SilverShipsofAndilar
2:37 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Close? Close is when you can see it without a telescope. They say these types of "close calls" happen all the time.
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
136. originalLT
12:54 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Asteroid passing earth tonight, within 49,000 miles. Called a close miss on WCBS 880 news radio.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
135. originalLT
12:52 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
P451, STAY HOME TODAY, and for awhile, you've had enough excitement for quite a long time!!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
133. goofyrider
1:16 AM GMT on September 08, 2010
Evening P

Guards are sensitive due to
last weeks drownings at Belmar and Asbury
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2957
132. TheF1Man
12:16 AM GMT on September 08, 2010
P451 that's a great story, i bet they just didnt have anything else to do. Not much crime during the day right?

Oh and I was looking at the different maps on TWC, Denver had a dewpoint of 0 yesterday. I'm guessing that isn't too normal right?
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 685
131. originalLT
11:48 PM GMT on September 07, 2010
I received my prize package from the WU travel contest, it was very nice, it contained, a very good beach travel bag, a large beach blanket, suntan lotion, and a drink holder, all with the WU logo, and a congratulations card from WU.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
130. SilverShipsofAndilar
8:40 PM GMT on September 07, 2010
Yeah, in the south we called any flounder over 20" a "saddle blanket." I remember catching coolers full as a kid, but not as much these days. Could be because I don't have as much time out on the water anymore, but for some reason the flounder and speckled trout bites aren't as good as I remember them being. Red drum minimum is 20" and you're only allowed one per year over 28". I blame commercial fishing and oystering that result in overfishing and habitat destruction.
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
129. Zachary Labe
7:11 PM GMT on September 07, 2010
Everything is taken so seriously anymore, but I guess no one wants the responsibility if something would happen dangerously in the water, which I understand.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
128. originalLT
5:54 PM GMT on September 07, 2010
Hey P451, didn't know you were such a "Bad Guy", trouble maker! Great story, glad you weren't put in jail for that. There's alot more serious stuff going on than that. Guess they just wanted to "frighten" you.. Scared straight! I don't think it worked. But please do be careful though.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
127. TheRasberryPatch
5:12 PM GMT on September 07, 2010
SSA - back in the 80's the minimum size for flounder was 12". we would be taking home a cooler full of flounder...well not that much but close to 20. with the minimum that high most keeper flounder are doormats. the Coastal Fisherman has large flounder pictures all throughout the newspaper.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
126. weathergeek5
4:54 PM GMT on September 07, 2010
hey silver just sent you some mail.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
125. SilverShipsofAndilar
4:50 PM GMT on September 07, 2010
19" is pretty big for a flounder to be the minimum size. Where I grew up fishing in TX, minimum length was 12" and then changed to 14". Perhaps they're more plentiful farther south.
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
124. TheRasberryPatch
3:42 PM GMT on September 07, 2010
P451 - the flounder were around before the storm...I just think the storm had something to do with them not biting. probably the front moving through with the winds had something to do with it as well. usually before a front moves by the fish really bite and then just after they aren't biting.

Last week and weekend the white marlin catch was out of this world. According to the Coastal Fisherman out of OCMD they had some of the best catch and release white marlin fishing in years. You want to hear something kooky....Delaware and Maryland share a bay around Bethany/Fenwick and OCMD...The past few years DE and MD have had different limits on flounder. Last year MD had 18 1/2 in minimum and DE had 19". This year MD has 19" and DE has 18 1/2 in. I take my boat through DE and fish in MD. The same waters, but different size and creels. You would think the DNR would figure out something. It's a bit comical, but that is our tax money working at its best
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
121. TheRasberryPatch
11:36 AM GMT on September 07, 2010
I was at OCMD this weekend. The waves were just as big on Saturday if not bigger then last Saturday (Aug 28) from Danielle. The riptides weren't nearly as bad, but those waves were awesome.
The flounder fishing wasn't good though. I am guessing the storm cloudy up the water. no one was catching. A beautiful weekend at the beach
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
119. Zachary Labe
1:29 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Ah, 45.2F here this morning!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
118. cchamp6
1:07 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Cold morning here in northwest ct. 39 degrees for a morning low.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1738
116. originalLT
1:12 AM GMT on September 06, 2010
Got down to 53F last night, hit 76 this afternoon, was mostly sunny still a bit breezy, now it is 61F, and clear.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
115. Zachary Labe
7:20 PM GMT on September 05, 2010
Quoting CarolinaWXGuy:
Nice! :) I'm SOOO ready for Fall it's just been so frikin' hot this Summer LOL!

Looking forward to your Winter thoughts! Seems as though a lot of folks are torn between two totally opposite thoughts; some calling for warm and dry east of the mountains, while others call for almost a sorta hybrid "El Nino-ish" Winter like the Farmers' Almanac, especially looking at the Deep South with that "cold and wet" swath.

Yea, I am waiting about two weekends before I post my outlook just to see a few more weekly ENSO SST anomalies. But at this point I have a decent idea which side I am leaning towards, although confidence is significantly lower than last year and the year before that even.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
114. CarolinaWXGuy
6:51 PM GMT on September 05, 2010
Quoting Blizzard92:

I think tonight might even be a tad cooler here as dewpoints are already in the 40s and winds may decouple quicker.
Nice! :) I'm SOOO ready for Fall it's just been so frikin' hot this Summer LOL!

Looking forward to your Winter thoughts! Seems as though a lot of folks are torn between two totally opposite thoughts; some calling for warm and dry east of the mountains, while others call for almost a sorta hybrid "El Nino-ish" Winter like the Farmers' Almanac, especially looking at the Deep South with that "cold and wet" swath.
Member Since: May 20, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 128
113. Zachary Labe
6:31 PM GMT on September 05, 2010
Quoting CarolinaWXGuy:
Almost made it into the 40Fs here too this morning, but not quite; it was 51F...

I think tonight might even be a tad cooler here as dewpoints are already in the 40s and winds may decouple quicker.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
112. CarolinaWXGuy
6:05 PM GMT on September 05, 2010
Almost made it into the 40Fs here too this morning, but not quite; it was 51F...
Member Since: May 20, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 128
111. originalLT
5:11 PM GMT on September 05, 2010
Thanks for the "Congrats" Blizz. I'll tell everyone what was in my "Surprize Package" when I receive it. See, I said to my wife, I guess being a Geography major in college finally paid off!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
110. TheF1Man
1:56 PM GMT on September 05, 2010
Quoting originalLT:
Hi TheF1Man, I literally got just sprinkles from Earl. I could have used some rain too. Did you get anything, being further ENE from me?


Bummer, I only got sprinkles here as well and the drought is just as bad. All trees are wilting.
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 685

Viewing: 160 - 110

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4Blog Index

Top of Page

About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

Blizzard92's Recent Photos

Fall in Ithaca
Snow Fluff
Deep Creek and Wisp, MD
Deep Creek and Wisp, MD

Personal Weather Stations

About Personal Weather Stations