Cutoff low progresses northeastward...

By: Zachary Labe , 12:29 AM GMT on August 23, 2010

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As another month ticks by on the intangible figment of time, another summer ceases to an close. By this midpoint in the year, many New Year's Resolutions have been broken, and summer vacation for students and teaches resume another year. Across the northern portions of North America, the seasonal transition is already evident. While no the leaves are not red and the snow has not fallen, but suddle changes are evident. The days grow shorter with the darkness of night already noticeable by 7pm and patchy ground fog resumes the typical fall like pattern during the early morning hours. Cold fronts now blow across the region evident in not only wind shifts, but temperatures. Instead of only a relaxation of humidity after a frontal passing, finally cooler temperatures are trickling in. We have passed the dog days of summer. And we have passed those 'wall of humidity' days. But now we enter a new chapter. While one could say every year this transition occurs, but unlike many things... the weather is never replicated. Increasing changes bring turmoil in the meteorology community as challenges impose. Skills in one set of forecasting weaken, while others strengthen. Autumn, while typically boring weatherwise, offers a renewed interest in winter forecasting. Rarely during the Summer months is a collaboration of model guidance such as the CMC, JMA, ECMWF, GFS, NAM, WRF, UKMET used in one setting. Fall allows for a resurgence of an active northerly jet that sinks southward into the lower 48. One could say forecasting thunderstorms is difficult as exact placement of rain vs. no rain is impossible at this point in time, but winter brings challenges like no other. Low pressure systems develop across the entire region affecting millions of people in the United States from flooding rains to blowing snow to slippery ice. So as the meteorological Summer closes August 31... another chapter in the endless meteorological notebook begins.

Like most any summer, the typical local news report of flash flooding occuring somewhere in the United States is common. Turn on the six o'clock news and a headline of flash flooding in Iowa or Arkansas or New York State or wherever... is expected. Flash flooding is second to heat in the number of weather-related deaths in the United States. This is probable due to most areas being in precipitation favored zones outside, say Death Valley. But a probable cause in the increasing flash flooding is not weather related at all. In fact many of these flash flood events likely could have been prevented in certain situations. The volume of water world wide remains a general steady constant. But any large rate of precipitation in a short period of time is a catalyst for flash flooding. With increasing urban sprawl, asphalt and concrete are quickly tearing away at Earth's natural filter... soil. As precipitation falls on asphalt, there is essentially no place to go, other than evaporation. It becomes runoff causing the ponding of water. Urban flooding is one of the leading causes of flooding deaths due to the ignorance of the 'turn around don't drown' philosophy. Also the disruption of streams, rivers, and topography displaces the natural flow of runoff precipitation in the soil. Recent years have acknowledged this problem with the advent of retention ponds, but the problem still remains a major concern. Take a typical thunderstorm... 30 minutes with about .75in of rain or so. 0.75in of rain over an area the size of a county covers a great deal of land primarily being soil (outside the major cities). But with urbanized areas this three quarters of an inch has no where to go other than drainage systems which often are clogged during Spring and Fall with debris. So a simple 0.75 reaks unnecessary havoc and minor flooding with ponding along roadways. This raises the question... Are flash floods really on the increase? Again that is one of those questions such as, "If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?" Yes flash flooding reports are increasing, but the volume of rain essentially is remaining a constant. Therefore the atmosphere is not necessarily responsible for the increasing reports, but more so they are increasing because of the growing population and growing human influence on the environment. Sure it is easy to blame mother Earth for a problem, but blaiming ourselves... well that is another story.

The week ahead looks rather benign weatherwise as soon as the interesting cutoff low in New England progresses northeast slowly. The cold front had already reached the I-95 corridor as of 8pm Sunday evening and the low pressure is churning up the East Coast.

Dry air aloft associated with a weak upper level circulation in southern Quebec is penetrating the troposphere in the Northern Middle Atlantic acting as an area of subsidence preventing additional rainfall for most areas Sunday night. But a weak banana high over Newfoundland will keep the low pressure in the vicinity through Monday night. As the winds back around the cutoff low, increasing PWATs will once again occur Monday. +1SD precipitate waters near 1.7in are progged on the H7 GFS moisture fields allowing the mention of precipitation in the forecast through Monday night. As the onshore easterly flow increases by Monday morning, low stratus will advect 1000ft or less ceilings into areas downwind of the Appalachians with an increasing threat of drizzle and light rain showers. HIRES NMM QPF levels add an additional 0.1-0.25in of rain regionwide on Monday with the higher amounts located over northeastern Pennsylvania. GFS QPF values remain similar also. A dreary forecast looks in store for most areas through Tuesday afternoon especially east of the Hagerstown-State College-Lock Haven line with drizzle and light rain along with patchy fog and low clouds. IFR conditions will be prevalent especially towards the coastal plain in Delaware, southeastern Pennsylvania, and Maryland. Marine influences will remain unfavorable for recreational use as the onshore flow will add the potential for a bit of oversplashing in favorable coastal flood locations along the Chesapeake Bay. 18utc 8/22/10 GFS also adds an interesting scenario on Wednesday with a weak coastal low forming along the quasi-stationary boundary in Virginia. This low then traverses northward with heavy rain into southern New England.

At this point my initial thoughts are that this could be a convective feedback problem, but the last few NAM runs have hinted at this scenario with a very minimal and weak 850hPa low in this region in the same time frame. In any case an unsettled approach to the forecast is the smart way to go for all areas through Wednesday evening. Temperatures are also below normal for a change courtesy of the stratiform rain. 24hr temperature changes from yesterday to today feature a widespread -10F departure for most areas.

By Wednesday night an anti-cyclinic flow resumes over the entire Northeast featuring a relative period of beautiful weather. Lower 80s and sunshine will be common Thursday through Saturday along with dewpoints in the 60s maintaining lower humidity. Looking at the long term patter, GFS and ECMWF collaborations are both initiating once again a strong ridging pattern with anomalous H85 thermals over the East Coast in the two week time frame from this current date.

At this point in time model guidance is likely struggling with the seasonal transition and probably is overestimating the amount of warmth. Longer wavelengths globally do not support ECMWF guidance in this period. While above temperatures are possible, these progged thermals would initiate record warmth in the mid 90s or so. While 90s are possible in any September, they are not the common place they once were in July and August. My thoughts in this time period feature above normal temperatures towards early to mid September, but nothing abnormal or above 92F or so. At this point the GFS maintains a semi-active jet flow in the Middle Atlantic, so precipitation anomalies should remain near normal in this time period also.

Monday- Drizzle and light rain regionwide with low stratus and cooler temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. Additional rainfall for most areas near .25in.

Tuesday- Mostly cloudy to cloudy with light rain, especially for areas in the east. Additional rainfall less than one tenth of an inch. Highs remain below normal in the mid to upper 70s. A few areas in western Pennsylvania may tap into some sunshine with highs in the 80s.

Wednesday- Improving conditions with clouds finally dissipating for eastern areas with sunshine by evening. Little to no additional rainfall. Temperatures near normal in the low to mid 80s.

Thursday- High pressures dominates the weather pattern with brilliant sunshine and a cool/dry northwest flow. High temperatures in the low 80s.

Friday- Remains a repeat of Thursday with high pressure in control and brilliant sunshine regionwide. Highs near to slightly below normal.

Saturday/Sunday- Sunshine dominates the weather pattern with a bit warmer temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, especially on Sunday.

Regional updating radar...


"Here north of Harrisburg 2010 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 11
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 10
Tornado Watches- 1
Tornado Warnings- 1
Total Thunderstorms- 17

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 3
Flood Warnings- 2
Monthly Precipitation- 4.24inches
Yearly Precipitation- 26.54inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 5
Excessive Heat Watches- 1
Excessive Heat Warnings- 1
90degree days- 31
Highest Temperature 101F (x2)

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84. upweatherdog
7:19 PM GMT on August 28, 2010
I suppose making a storm track forecast right now would be foolish. The SST anomalies this summer have supported a negative NAO (cooler water where water should be warmers, or vise versa) However, SST correlations now seem to be on the trend of supporting a more neutral NAO, but i'm probably wrong. A negative NAO would create drier and colder weather for us with blocking high pressure pushing storms in Ohio Valley. However, a cold phase PDA and the La Nina favor a storm track through the west and central great lakes. However, years with a large southeast ridge and higher hurricane activity are usually snowy in the great lakes. This winter should be interseting, and more snowy here than last winter. Hopefully this wont be another winter where blocking high presssure forces storms west and southeast of the U.P.
Member Since: October 14, 2007 Posts: 173 Comments: 1372
83. Zachary Labe
7:01 PM GMT on August 28, 2010
upweatherdog- This winter will be different than typical La Ninas so be cautious on any idea for storm track forecasts at this point. The location of the anomalous cool SSTs is at an unusual location. Also these hurricanes in the North Atlantic will change teleconnections also. Keep an eye out... that NAO remains starchly negative and will provide some blocking despite a southeast ridge (which I am expecting a large one). In any case I would not yet say a snowy winter is a definite for the Great Lakes like most NIna winters.

Anyways no actually I have not been out fishing much unfortunately. Conditions this Summer have been very unfavorable and water temperatures are out of this world warm. In fact the one local lake was 87F!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
82. upweatherdog
6:57 PM GMT on August 28, 2010
It appears right now the main storm track this winter will be through the Great Lakes. It will be nice to have some classic snowstorms here with low pressure in northern lower michigan, bringing northeast winds and heavy lake enhanced snow to the U.P.

By the way Blizz, have you been doing any fishing? I went brook trout fishing yesterday on the stream down the road. The bite was slow, but I caught two trout. One was 5 inches and the other about 8 1/2. I used a barbless crawler harness setup. I took the large barb off the hook point but left the barbs on the shank to hold the worm. Fish can be released in just seconds. As long as you hold your pole high, you won't loose many fish with barbless hooks.
Member Since: October 14, 2007 Posts: 173 Comments: 1372
81. Zachary Labe
6:47 PM GMT on August 28, 2010
TheF1Man- Best of luck! Keep us updated!

pittsburghnurse- Ah, never fear a question at least in this blog. Seems like everyone answered it pretty well. The western US has actually had a pretty cool summer, where as the heat was in the east.

P451- If we do not get any tropical systems, the next two weeks will likely have little to absolutely no rain for most all areas.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
80. wunderstorm87
5:07 PM GMT on August 28, 2010
It makes for a warmer winter in the south for sure...but around here I wouldn't be surprised to see the winter temps change pretty significantly from month to month, as even a small variation in the jet stream could impact temperatures and precipitation. This is most likely the main reason the CPC is giving an EC in their winter forecasts.
Climate Prediction Center Explanation

December-February Precip. and temperature outlooks (from the CPC)
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
79. pittsburghnurse
1:39 PM GMT on August 28, 2010
Quoting weathergeek5:


Never fear to ask questions!!! The dumb question is the one that is not asked!!! Usually a trof in the west means means there is a ridge in the east. This summer has been much cooler then usual on the west coast. The reason i think was the trof in the west. if this pattern continues then it could be warmer then average this winter. I think this is the case. Blizz and 451 and others could chime in. The key to this is if the current pattern holds into the winter months.


I've learned a lot from Blizz's blog because people like you have me to feel welcome. Thanks!!
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
78. weathergeek5
1:11 PM GMT on August 28, 2010
Quoting pittsburghnurse:
Among such learned meteorogogy students, I hesitate to ask questions. But here goes. Does troughing in the West make for a warmer winter in the East? And would a warmer winter favor more or less precip?


Never fear to ask questions!!! The dumb question is the one that is not asked!!! Usually a trof in the west means means there is a ridge in the east. This summer has been much cooler then usual on the west coast. The reason i think was the trof in the west. if this pattern continues then it could be warmer then average this winter. I think this is the case. Blizz and 451 and others could chime in. The key to this is if the current pattern holds into the winter months.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
77. weathergeek5
1:06 PM GMT on August 28, 2010
Quoting Blizzard92:
Just a bit to note... Todays 12utc sends future Fiona heading directly towards North Carolina and up the east coast as a formidable major hurricane in the September 5-7 period. Before everyone panics, this is a prognostic from the 10-day ECMWF, which typically are very inaccurate. But what might be a bit unusual to note are a few similarities in the wavelength pattern to Isabel. Still no need to worry at all, as there is no one who can pinpoint any forecast at this time. None the less, just keep this model in the back of your mind in the next 10days. Anytime a parade of storms head near Bermuda, poses the threat that one could break off from that track and head towards the east coast.


Fabian which hit bermuda in 2003 then Isabel right?
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
75. pittsburghnurse
12:27 PM GMT on August 28, 2010
Among such learned meteorogogy students, I hesitate to ask questions. But here goes. Does troughing in the West make for a warmer winter in the East? And would a warmer winter favor more or less precip?
Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
74. originalLT
3:16 AM GMT on August 28, 2010
Best of luck TheF1Man, do well up there. Please post us from up there if you have a chance, I know you might be very busy. Yeah , in a "normal" winter you should get alot more snow than us here by the coast, but of course last winter, if you were going to school in the DC area, you would have hit the "Jackpot"!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
73. TheF1Man
2:59 AM GMT on August 28, 2010
Thanks for the heads up Blizz. Well everyone, tomorrow i begin my college journey in springfield, mass. I'm attending Western New England College to attain a degree in engineering of some sort. Only 90 miles north from my current location but the weather is sure to be different. I really want to know what its like to get blasted with a snowstorm, i'm sure that i'll eat those words in a few months. LT it looks like you're on your own for now in SW CT.

goodnight
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 685
72. originalLT
2:18 AM GMT on August 28, 2010
Thanks Blizz on the hurricane note. Got down to 54F this morning here in Stamford.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
71. Zachary Labe
12:48 AM GMT on August 28, 2010
Just a bit to note... Todays 12utc sends future Fiona heading directly towards North Carolina and up the east coast as a formidable major hurricane in the September 5-7 period. Before everyone panics, this is a prognostic from the 10-day ECMWF, which typically are very inaccurate. But what might be a bit unusual to note are a few similarities in the wavelength pattern to Isabel. Still no need to worry at all, as there is no one who can pinpoint any forecast at this time. None the less, just keep this model in the back of your mind in the next 10days. Anytime a parade of storms head near Bermuda, poses the threat that one could break off from that track and head towards the east coast.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
70. Zachary Labe
1:34 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
upweatherdog- Hey! Hope to see you more around this winter. I think you are right with the La Nina favoring the troughing in the west despite teleconnections. This is going to be a difficult winter forecast for sure.


52F for a low here this morning with Bradford dropping to 39F!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
67. upweatherdog
7:15 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
Long time no talk Blizz!

It has been a warm summer here, and wet too. Not many big storms because temps aloft were too warm or clouds kept down instability.

Been a strange summer. The NAO, AO, and PNA trends would seem to favor troughing in the central and eastern United States, yet the trough is over the Northwest. I can't seem to indentify what is causing this to occur. I'm thinking the negative PDO and the transition to La Nina is the culprit. What do you think?

It will be interesting to see if the current teleconnections carry into Winter, resulting in more troughing over the central and eastern U.S than is expected.
Member Since: October 14, 2007 Posts: 173 Comments: 1372
66. NEwxguy
5:48 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
Quite a four day nor'easter,here in eastern Mass,over 5 inches of rain,with the most amounts falling yesterday,so much for our deficit.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15988
65. Zachary Labe
5:26 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
Possibily entering a dry period? 16 day GFS prints out only .03in of rain in that period for KMDT, ugh!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
64. Zachary Labe
2:49 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
Quoting TheF1Man:


wow very nice list blizz. One friend of mine will be a freshman at cornell this year and another at penn state. If you ever have any questions i can ask them.


Alright, I will keep that in mind, thanks!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
63. TheF1Man
2:29 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
Quoting Blizzard92:
wunderstorm87- That is fantastic! Thanks for updating us! I am going to apply to...

Cornell University
SUNY Oswego
Penn State
Millersville


wow very nice list blizz. One friend of mine will be a freshman at cornell this year and another at penn state. If you ever have any questions i can ask them.

Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 685
62. goofyrider
2:20 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
spring lake

Precip for Sun to thur am = 1. 6 in here.(old Fashoned rain Gage )
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2940
61. zotty
2:00 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
it doesn't get much better than today. happy days!
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 775
60. Zachary Labe
1:18 PM GMT on August 26, 2010
Quoting P451:


Not for me. I'm back in the soup now.

:/


Meanwhile I encourage all to post feedback to Wunderground regarding their new absolutely USELESS features.

Posting everyone's stats after every post puts an enormous strain on the databases and slows down the blogs greatly. I've noticed it already and it's so early I doubt many people are online yet. Imagine it when a blog is busy!

Also, the stats put an extra unnecessary friction between users - for now if you've signed up earlier - or have more posts than - someone you are debating with the reaction is "you're a newbie, your opinion is irrelevant"

Now, while I never act in that manner, I have run several websites and forums, and have seen this occur.

A new poster can have a great opinion but will be hammered because he/she is "new to the site"

Please, post feedback, and get this new addition wiped out.


The site is running much smoother today now that the bugs seem to be fixed. I have no problem with the stats thing, though I avoid Master's blog most of the time to avoid such conflict as you mention. In any case it is just another little feature to keep people pleased. In fact most all forums have a similar feature with posting stats, and rarely do I see conflict over it. Give it time and soon it will be quickly overlooked by many.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
56. Zachary Labe
12:14 AM GMT on August 26, 2010
wunderstorm87- That is fantastic! Thanks for updating us! I am going to apply to...

Cornell University
SUNY Oswego
Penn State
Millersville
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
55. wunderstorm87
12:12 AM GMT on August 26, 2010
The job shadow today went great.  Everything was cool but one of the coolest things happened when I got there at 10 and meteorologists from all over the U.S. east coast (but mostly from the NHC) were talking about  the new TD (now TS Earl) and also about changes for hurricane Danielle's 11am advisory on the "hurricane hotline" which is heard by most WFO's in the eastern part of the country.

I met most of the people working that shift but Barry Lambert, Matt Steinbugl, and Pete Jung were the people who I spent the most time with. I also asked Steinbugl about the impacts of la nina here in terms of winter precipitation and he concluded that there was little impact to our area, with the exception that there is a slight trend toward it being more stormy (not necessarily more snowy because of uncertainties temperature wise, but common sense says the more precip. you have the better chance of some of it being snow).

They also tipped my scale toward PSU because of better internship opportunities than Millersville.  Either way this decision is still about 2 years off for me. Did you decided what college you're going to Blizz?
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
54. Zachary Labe
11:57 PM GMT on August 25, 2010
Thursday night and Friday nights should be in the upper 40s to mid 50s for many residents in the Northeast! I cannot wait!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
53. Hoynieva
9:31 PM GMT on August 25, 2010
A hot dry summer and then suddenly about 4" of rain in 4 days with temps in the 60's throughout...it's as if mother nature just wants to remind us what comes next.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1521
52. Zachary Labe
1:47 PM GMT on August 25, 2010
Quoting P451:
Damn... calling for 85 tomorrow and 90 again come Sunday/Monday/Tuesday now.

Oh well this break in the weather was welcome.

Friday looks like a marvelous day with sunshine and only mid to upper 70s.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
48. Zachary Labe
11:06 PM GMT on August 24, 2010
Hahaha... thanks. Yep I am not going anywhere anytime soon (I do not think, haha). I sure am enjoying this weather though, ah... 60s!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
47. Hoynieva
8:17 PM GMT on August 24, 2010
Thanks, LT, it was a great getaway.

As for Blizz, I'm pretty sure he'll stick around and, if not, he'll at least let us know which area of the cyber world he's hanging out in. Right, Blizz?
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1521
45. Zachary Labe
7:35 PM GMT on August 24, 2010
Quoting originalLT:
P451, saw your comment on WEATHER456, you could be right. I noticed on the main page, the "Featured Blog" section is gone from the side of the page, it is mentioned but those blogs like Weather456 and Sully and others are not there. Maybe they are reorganizing or there is something wrong with the page itself.

I think there is a reorganizing or something. When I wrote this last blog, there is a new summary feature thing for featured bloggers to use that was not there before.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
44. goofyrider
3:34 PM GMT on August 24, 2010
i am up P see link below

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SAT_NE/anim8vis.html

didn't hear the F's here

Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2940
43. originalLT
3:12 PM GMT on August 24, 2010
P451, saw your comment on WEATHER456, you could be right. I noticed on the main page, the "Featured Blog" section is gone from the side of the page, it is mentioned but those blogs like Weather456 and Sully and others are not there. Maybe they are reorganizing or there is something wrong with the page itself.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
41. originalLT
2:32 PM GMT on August 24, 2010
P451, I heard on WCBS TV last night on the 11 o'clock news that the military was performing some manuvers around the NYC area and NJ today between 10 to 11AM. And possibly tomorrow too. They said so don't get alarmed.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
39. Zachary Labe
2:22 PM GMT on August 24, 2010
Quoting P451:
Another cool breezy morning with some showers poised to roll in off the ocean.


60HRs of WV Imagery ending 915AM ET:


Yep, only 67F here currently.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
37. Zachary Labe
1:25 PM GMT on August 24, 2010
Another nice morning; boy I will be glad when this cutoff low exits the region. It has made forecasts here very difficult for some reason.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
36. Zachary Labe
12:56 AM GMT on August 24, 2010
P451- Ah yes, I thought this evening was marvelous and very reminsent of my favorite October weather.

wunderstorm87- That's great, good luck! I was up there before. My tour guide was Pete Jung, but I also met a few others.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
35. TheRasberryPatch
12:53 AM GMT on August 24, 2010
just sprinkles...nothing to measure...the clouds are really putting on a good show. if you ever wanted to pick out animals or so with cloud formations you could certainly do that today in the lower susquehanna
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6276
34. originalLT
12:51 AM GMT on August 24, 2010
Goodluck with your interview wunderstorm87. Got to watch tennis at the Pilot Pen in New Haven Ct. today, was cloudy with some very light drizzle at times, temps. between 65-70F, and the winds were NE at a stiff 20-30mph.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010

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