Observation Blog...

By: Zachary Labe , 1:14 PM GMT on August 07, 2010

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Quiet weather in store for the next few days as weak dominate troughing and high pressure remain in control maintaining seasonable to slightly below normal temperatures and lower humidity values. A few backdoor cold fronts will approach northern Pennsylvania early next week, but most areas will remain dry.

"Current Temperature"


"Current Dewpoint"


"Current Surface Map and Weekly History of Jet Stream Position"


"Regional Radar"


"Regional Satellite"


"Regional Advisories"


"Soil Moisture Anomalies and 5-day Precipitation Amounts from Hydro Prediction Center"


"Severe Weather Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"


"12hr Estimated Precipitation"


"Forecast Max Temperatures"


"Forecast Min Temperature"


"Forecast Weather at 2pm"


"Current Storm Reports"


"Fire Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"

(All maps courtesy of NOAA and Penn State Meteo.)

"Forecast Model Links"
-NAM model 12z...Link
-GFS model 12z...Link
-NMM model 12z...Link
-SREF model 9z...Link

"Severe Weather Links"
-Atmospheric Soundings Skewt T charts...Link
-SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pages...Link
-Public Spotter Reports for State College NWS...Link
-Severe Weather Model Forecast indices...Link
-Severe Weather Parameter Definitions...Link

"Flooding Links"
-Automated Pennsylvania Rainfall Recording Stations...Link
-Flash Flooding Guidance...Link
-HPC Forecasts for Excessive Rainfall...Link
-Hydrology Predictions for Lakes, Rivers, and Streams...Link

I will be away from August 7 - August 11 visiting Cornell University and SUNY Oswego. This is an observation blog where there are automatically updating maps. Feel free to leave comments below and daily observations are welcomed. Back to regular blogging a few days after I return. Have a wonderful week!!!

"Here north of Harrisburg 2010 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 10
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 9
Tornado Watches- 1
Tornado Warnings- 1
Total Thunderstorms- 16

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 3
Flood Warnings- 2
Monthly Precipitation- 2.67inches
Yearly Precipitation- 24.97inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 5
Excessive Heat Watches- 1
Excessive Heat Warnings- 1
90degree days- 31
Highest Temperature 101F (x2)

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51. Zachary Labe
1:57 PM GMT on August 13, 2010
0.36in of additional rainfall since midnight. Storm total is 2.20in for me so far in the last two days.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15099
50. TrentonThunder
12:29 PM GMT on August 13, 2010
I'm suprised at some of those totals. I only got 0.07". Wasn't paying much attention to yesterday's weather.

Things are starting to get pretty dry again around here. Grass isn't growing at all.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
49. TheRasberryPatch
11:56 AM GMT on August 13, 2010
Blizz - I got 0.74" as of 730am this morning from the past day. Not nearly as much as you. That was taken from my Cocorahs.

I saw something briefly that DC got hit pretty hard yesterday
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6255
48. originalLT
4:43 AM GMT on August 13, 2010
P451, or for SW CT. We just got some sprinkles today, that's all. Looks like my next chance for rain will be next Mon. and Tues.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7450
46. Zachary Labe
12:08 AM GMT on August 13, 2010
1.84in of rain total so far today.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15099
45. baxtheweatherman
11:50 PM GMT on August 12, 2010
A much needed 1.3in overnight along with the most intense thunder and lightning all year. Dodged the rest of the storms and showers today and was surprisingly mostly sunny.
Member Since: December 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 118
44. lawntonlookers
7:18 PM GMT on August 12, 2010
Ranning real hard here now and heading toward the south east.
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
43. Zachary Labe
7:00 PM GMT on August 12, 2010
Quoting lawntonlookers:
It has been a while since I have been on your blog. It looks pretty nasty over Harrisburg, looking from Lawton.

I have been doing a lot of genelogy research which is why I haven't been on in a while.

Hey! Thanks for stopping by and hope to see you more in the winter! We are getting pounded here along Blue Mountain with 1.71in of rain and more heavy rain spiriling through...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15099
42. lawntonlookers
6:54 PM GMT on August 12, 2010
It has been a while since I have been on your blog. It looks pretty nasty over Harrisburg, looking from Lawton.

I have been doing a lot of genelogy research which is why I haven't been on in a while.
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
41. Zachary Labe
5:43 PM GMT on August 12, 2010
Heavy rain falling here from a vortmax along the front in central Pennsylvania spiriling southeast over the Lower Susquehanna Valley...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15099
40. goofyrider
3:37 PM GMT on August 12, 2010
Spring Lake
Scattered power outages before any storm activity
Lost power about 1100
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2742
39. TrentonThunder
2:48 PM GMT on August 12, 2010
Forget a few of those records I posted for August. I was getting them from the HamWeather site and some of them are crap. Some of them were indeed confirmed records though.

I knew there had to be something wrong with daily rainfall records of less than 0.10" at the main climate locations. I don't know where they're getting some of that information lol.

The 90 plus degree days I posted are accurate though.

Here's the real deal confirmed by the National Weather Service...

AUGUST 5TH
Record High @ Islip NY, 94F (old 93F, 2005)
Record High Tied @ JFK NY 96F, (old 96F, 2005)
Record High @ Atlantic City NJ, 96F (old record 95F, 2005)
Record High @ Georgetown DE, 98F (old 96F, 2002)

AUGUST 6TH
Record High @ JFK NY, 91F (old 90F, 2008)

AUGUST 10TH
Record High Minimum @ Reagan VA, 80F (old 78F, 1988)
Record High Ties @ Trenton, 96F (old 96F, 1949)
Record High Tied @ Reagan VA, 98F (old 98F, 1943)
Record High @ Georgetown DE, 99F (old 98F, 1949)

AUGUST 11TH
Record High @ Dulles VA, 97F (old 96F, 1980)
-------------------------------------------------

More recent 90F plus stuff..

...6th day of 90F plus at Central Park NY yesterday (8/11) surpassed August average of 5.0 days.

...3rd day of 90F plus at JFK NY yesterday (8/11) surpassed August average of 2.7 days.

...6th day of 90F plus at Reading yesterday (8/11) surpassed August average of 5.0 days.

...5th day of 90F plus at Atlantic City yesterday (8/11) surpassed August average of 4.4 days.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
38. goofyrider
1:20 PM GMT on August 12, 2010
Spring Lake

cloudy and humid as is typ. this summer the rain is dwindling as it crosses the state
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2742
37. Zachary Labe
1:15 PM GMT on August 12, 2010
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
that was a nice shower to hit the area this morning Blizz.
is that the kind of rain we will have with the stalled front next week? the kind of ripples like that every few hours. there were some nasty reds on the radar to our south

Exactly, some areas will probably deal with localized flooding this week. 0.26in of rain here this morning.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15099
36. TheRasberryPatch
12:13 PM GMT on August 12, 2010
that was a nice shower to hit the area this morning Blizz.
is that the kind of rain we will have with the stalled front next week? the kind of ripples like that every few hours. there were some nasty reds on the radar to our south
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6255
35. originalLT
12:13 PM GMT on August 12, 2010
Looks like NE Va. and parts of MD. are really getting hit.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7450
34. originalLT
12:10 PM GMT on August 12, 2010
Good morning all, boy Blizz, that is a large area of rain just South and SE of you, did you get any of it over night?
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7450
33. Zachary Labe
2:08 AM GMT on August 12, 2010
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
Blizz - I waited until all my potato plants died back before I dug up the potatoes. but you can dig them up anytime. you can dig up only what you need or all of them.

should we look out for any severe weather in the next couple of days?

Ok, thanks! Probably not too much severe weather, although a few days could have some isolated reports such as tomorrow. A very stormy pattern is headed our way especially towards the weekend as a front stalls over the region with waves of tropical moisture. Heavy rain is a threat in this period. I am trying to get a new blog out Friday or so.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15099
32. TheRasberryPatch
1:40 AM GMT on August 12, 2010
Blizz - I waited until all my potato plants died back before I dug up the potatoes. but you can dig them up anytime. you can dig up only what you need or all of them.

should we look out for any severe weather in the next couple of days?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6255
31. Zachary Labe
1:00 AM GMT on August 12, 2010
originalLT- Thanks! I am looking at Penn State too, but the issue is the size. Cornell has an excellent meteorology program and then you get the advantage of the ivy league education and legacy. But in no particular order I am looking at...

Cornell U
Penn State, University Park
Rutgers U
SUNY Oswego
Millersville U
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15099
30. originalLT
12:49 AM GMT on August 12, 2010
How about Penn State? Or might that be too close to home? I've heard Iowa ST. and of course Rutgers, as TT. says, are very good. I was just thinking if, for any of the schools you're looking at, I and I'm sure most of us here would write letters of support for you to these schools. Anyway, just a thought.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7450
29. Zachary Labe
12:35 AM GMT on August 12, 2010
listenerVT- Thanks for the link and thanks for stopping by!

TheRasberryPatch- Two drops of rain here that is all. My vegetable garden has been a blah year. Everything is growing slow and never looks overly healthy. When should I pick my potatoes (some of the plants are green while others died back)?

TrentonThunder- At this point Cornell University is first on my list, but it is very difficult to get in... so I am keeping all my options open for sure.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15099
28. TheRasberryPatch
3:44 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
TT - I haven't been keeping my eye on the tropics, yet. I hope if anything we get a splash of rain.

Blizz - I must admit this season has been really good for my vegetable gardens. I know tomatoes love hot sunny weather and this year has been one of my best for them the last 3 years or so. I got some really sweet honeydew and watermelons. My pumpkins look really good. Peppers are doing well also. I am still picking cucumbers, even though they are almost done, but past years my cucumbers were done by the end of July if not sooner. This is the kind of weather we need for the vegetables.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6255
27. TrentonThunder
2:45 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Deleted
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
26. TrentonThunder
2:14 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
BLIZZ: I visited Millersville and Rutgers in late July and met up with the head of the meteorology departments at both. About half of the Rutgers campus was rural/suburban, and half urban/city. I feel the same way that you do about it being too city-like. Also, some of the professors and students I met in the department were kind of awkward lol.

I loved Millersville with all the rural farmland that surrounds it and with Lancaster city not too far away. The head of the meteorology department, Dr. Clark, was great and down to earth and we had some real nice conversations regarding the school and the weather etc... I felt real comfortable there and submited my application for the fall 2011 semester on August 1st. I'll have an answer in mid-September which is real nice and early. I've kept in touch with Dr. Clark through snail mail since the visit.

I take it you haven't made a decision on where you want to go right? Unless I missed something...

RASBERRYPATCH: I'm wondering if we'll see any effects of the disturbance in the Gulf early next week...
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
25. TheRasberryPatch
12:39 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Blizz - did you get any of that shower early yesterday evening? It passed just to my north. I was in Hershey and it showered for about 5 mins and when I was driving through Palmyra it was a bit heavier, but nothing terrible.

any chance of more significant rain this week? just as long as it doesn't rain on Saturday
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6255
23. listenerVT
3:07 AM GMT on August 11, 2010
Blizz...

That's quite an impressive collection of graphics! Thanks!

We had a nice, solid thunderstorm here early evening (NW VT). It's been a good week for thunderstorms.

Here's a great site for seeing storm cells.
http://www.wptz.com/weather/18177912/iframe.html?qs=;longname=;shortname=Radar;days=&ib_wxwidget=tr ue#HEARSTWX=http%3A//www.wptz.com/weather/18177912/iframe.html%3Fqs%3D%3Blongname%3DRadar%3Bshortnam e%3DRadar

Zoom out, reposition over your area, then zoom in.
(It even zooms to street level!)
Roll over a storm cell to see its direction and timing.
Double-click on a storm cell to see specific information about that storm.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5484
22. Zachary Labe
12:57 AM GMT on August 11, 2010
TrentonThunder- 95F here today, making this the 30th 90F day or higher here in Harrisburg this Summer!!!

originalLT- Thanks! I am very excited and cannot wait to see the final result decision.

baxtheweatherman- Ugh, many areas could use the rainfall especially in central Pennsylvania up through southern New York. I was in Ithaca yesterday, and things were very dry too.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15099
21. baxtheweatherman
12:52 AM GMT on August 11, 2010
Still looking for rain, although the best chance for rain is Thursday and later into the weekend, the same time when there is so much to do outdoors (my church is having a festival fri-sun, and a nearby town is having community days fri-sun as well, plus my birthday is sun & i don't want it to rain!). Got the garden watered tomight with what little water was in the creek.
Member Since: December 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 118
20. originalLT
12:41 AM GMT on August 11, 2010
Blizz, glad you enjoyed both Schools, I know you'll see many more, and the choices will become harder, but in the end you will evaluate all, consider the pluses and minuses of each, and reach a decision on your #1 choice, (and a # 2 and 3 back-up)! Where ever you go, I know you will do very well, and they will be better off having you!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7450
19. TrentonThunder
10:03 PM GMT on August 10, 2010
...6th day of 90F plus at Georgetown DE yesterday (8/9) surpassed August average of 5.4 days... Today (8/10) was day number 7.

...3rd day of 90F plus at Scranton PA yesterday (8/9) surpassed August average of 2.0 days... Today (8/10) was day number 4.

...4th day of 90F plus at LaGuardia NY today surpassed August average of 3.9 days.

...5th day of 90F plus at Trenton NJ today surpassed August average of 4.6 days...
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
18. Zachary Labe
9:02 PM GMT on August 10, 2010
I had a wonderful time touring both schools. Both schools are radically different with semi-different excellent meteorology style programs.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15099
17. TrentonThunder
2:29 PM GMT on August 10, 2010
I finally got tired of the heat during this past week. Looking forward to fall but it stinks that fall temperatures may not arrive until late this year. I believe we'll have a very poor and late foliage season.

I chose yes on the snow survey at the top. If we stay in a moderate La Nina, I went with the law of averages that say Philadelphia averages 18.7" during moderate La Nina, which is an inch or two below the 20" or so seasonal average.

Who knows though, we could have another whacky season, but I personally don't expect anything to rival 1995-1996 or 2009-2010 (60" or more) for another 10 or 15 years.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
14. mick1946
7:07 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
The bad news is it looks like the meteor shower will be clouded out on both Wed. and Thurs. nights here in Ct. My friends and I are hoping Fri. night will be clear enough to view the shower.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
13. TheRasberryPatch
5:40 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
Good luck Blizz. I hope you have an enjoyable trip to the colleges.

Things are a lot different these days. I don't recall doing college tours, just putting in apps and see if you get accepted.

Like I have been saying most of the summer....it's been awhile since we had a hot summer. I recall going to the state fair in Maryland at the end of August and it being hot, but not lately. I must admit I am enjoying the hot summer. Usually by the end of July I am ready for September and cold fronts to cool us down. This year I am enjoying the hot sun and sweating. I will wait until Labor Day to decide if I have had enough. hahahaha

very interesting article...take a read on the effects of the hot summer on east coast golf courses.
Link
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6255
12. TrentonThunder
2:10 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
Massive ice island breaks off Greenland glacier

A massive ice island four times the size of Manhattan has broken off an iceberg in north-western Greenland on August 5th 2010.

The freshwater stored in the ice island could keep all US public tap water flowing for 120 days.

The Petermann Glacier lost about one-quarter of its 43-mile long floating ice-shelf.

The ice island will enter Nares Strait, between northern Greenland and Canada, where it will run into small islands.

The newly born ice-island may become land-fast, block the channel, or it may break into smaller pieces as it is propelled south by the prevailing ocean currents.

The ice island could then head along the Canadian coast and reach the Atlantic within the next two years.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
11. originalLT
2:36 AM GMT on August 08, 2010
Good luck on your college tour trip. I remember like it was yesterday when I did that with my two kids.We did the PA. tour with my daughter, Lafayette, F&M, Bucknell, Lehigh, and the eventual winner, Dickinson.( WE also went to Skidmore) For my son we saw Johns Hopkins, Brandeis, U of Penn, Tufts, and the eventual winner, Emory. He also was very interested in Washington Univ. in St Louis, but we did not visit there.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7450
10. weathergeek5
2:20 AM GMT on August 08, 2010
Quoting Blizzard92:

Yep, and we can thank Canada for this warm weather. After one of Canada's warmest winters on record, the snowpack along the rim of the arctic circle was greatly depleted therefore opening up warm winds to flow out of Canada keeping the polar air nonexistent.


Hopefully this winter Canada can replenish the snow pack.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
9. Zachary Labe
2:17 AM GMT on August 08, 2010
Quoting weathergeek5:


Yeah, I remember October 2007. ;) However I do have a feeling it may take awhile to cool down.

Yep, and we can thank Canada for this warm weather. After one of Canada's warmest winters on record, the snowpack along the rim of the arctic circle was greatly depleted therefore opening up warm winds to flow out of Canada keeping the polar air nonexistent.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15099
8. weathergeek5
2:11 AM GMT on August 08, 2010
Quoting Blizzard92:

Don't say that, hahaha.... This mild pattern has to end eventually really.


Yeah, I remember October 2007. ;) However I do have a feeling it may take awhile to cool down.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
7. Zachary Labe
2:08 AM GMT on August 08, 2010
Quoting weathergeek5:


I do wonder if we will have 80's into October this year?

Don't say that, hahaha.... This mild pattern has to end eventually really.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15099
6. weathergeek5
2:06 AM GMT on August 08, 2010
Quoting Blizzard92:
seflagamma- Just plain hot and humid up here, although today is a nice relief. After this hot summer, fall and winter will be a big breath of fresh air. Thanks for stopping by!

P451- ECMWF definitely signals an impressive Bermuda high forming towards mid to late August for a large heat spell in that time period. The crazy CFS continues to signal below normal temperatures for the Fall, but it has been forecasting that for this Summer and we all know how that turned out. Considering the SO status, I suspect the beginning of Fall will be quite mild.


I do wonder if we will have 80's into October this year?
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
5. Zachary Labe
2:05 AM GMT on August 08, 2010
originalLT- Yep, going to be a bit busy the next few days. Off to Cornell University and SUNY Oswego for some college tours and such...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15099
4. originalLT
5:28 PM GMT on August 07, 2010
Hi Blizz, short and sweet synopsis. Just perfect here today, near 80F and low humidity and a gentle W-WNW wind. They are saying by Mon. much warmer and more humid, near 90F, then in the low to mid 80's at least thru Thurs. after the warm day on Mon. 30% chance of showers by Mon.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7450
3. Zachary Labe
4:53 PM GMT on August 07, 2010
seflagamma- Just plain hot and humid up here, although today is a nice relief. After this hot summer, fall and winter will be a big breath of fresh air. Thanks for stopping by!

P451- ECMWF definitely signals an impressive Bermuda high forming towards mid to late August for a large heat spell in that time period. The crazy CFS continues to signal below normal temperatures for the Fall, but it has been forecasting that for this Summer and we all know how that turned out. Considering the SO status, I suspect the beginning of Fall will be quite mild.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15099

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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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