Observation Blog June 27 - July 5...

By: Zachary Labe , 2:11 PM GMT on June 26, 2010

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"Current Temperature"


"Current Dewpoint"


"Current Surface Map and Weekly History of Jet Stream Position"


"Regional Radar"


"Regional Satellite"


"Regional Advisories"


"Soil Moisture Anomalies and 5-day Precipitation Amounts from Hydro Prediction Center"


"Severe Weather Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"


"12hr Estimated Precipitation"


"Forecast Max Temperatures"


"Forecast Min Temperature"


"Forecast Weather at 2pm"


"Current Storm Reports"


"Fire Outlooks from Storm Prediction Center Days 1, 2, and 3"

(All maps courtesy of NOAA and Penn State Meteo.)

"Forecast Model Links"
-NAM model 12z...Link
-GFS model 12z...Link
-NMM model 12z...Link
-SREF model 9z...Link

"Severe Weather Links"
-Atmospheric Soundings Skewt T charts...Link
-SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pages...Link
-Public Spotter Reports for State College NWS...Link
-Severe Weather Model Forecast indices...Link
-Severe Weather Parameter Definitions...Link

"Flooding Links"
-Automated Pennsylvania Rainfall Recording Stations...Link
-Flash Flooding Guidance...Link
-HPC Forecasts for Excessive Rainfall...Link
-Hydrology Predictions for Lakes, Rivers, and Streams...Link

I will be away from June 27 - July 5. This is an observation blog where there are automatically updating maps. Feel free to leave comments below and daily observations are welcomed. Back to regular blogging a few days after I return. Have a wonderful week!!!

"Here north of Harrisburg 2010 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 6
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 6
Tornado Watches- 1
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 10

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 3
Flood Warnings- 1
Monthly Precipitation- 1.77inches
Yearly Precipitation- 18.87inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 2
Excessive Heat Warnings- 0
90degree days- 17
Highest Temperature- 101F (x2)

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Viewing: 273 - 223

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273. Ballooner
11:59 PM GMT on July 23, 2010
Tornado warning for Bergen and Passaic counties , NJ. Dewpoint 75 degrees.
Member Since: December 22, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 34
272. weathergeek5
9:07 PM GMT on July 14, 2010
This is right down the road from me:

07/14/2010 0250 PM

1 miles W of Elsmere, New Castle County.

Flash flood, reported by County official.


Evacuations due to flash flooding in Prices Corner,
including a few businesses and a daycare.




Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
271. goofyrider
8:56 PM GMT on July 14, 2010
Spring Lake

As of this morning we still had the short end. Amounts vary from 0.3 " in Point to +/- 0.2" here and less than a 0.1" in Bradley. Just enough to shut the sprinklers off.

Hey who needs water at the shore
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2732
270. RkTec
8:51 PM GMT on July 14, 2010
Had about 7.25" of rain here since Saturday. Also a tornado was reported nearby which was a surprise.

07/14/2010 0400 am

New Tripoli, Lehigh County.

Tornado, reported by NWS employee.


EF-0 tornado confirmed with maximum winds of 80 mph in
Lynn township. Path length was 3 miles and maximum width
was 150 yards. No injuries reported. Property damage
reported, including damage to several houses due to many
fallen trees. On the Lynn Acres farm, the roof of the
barn was peeled back. Most of the damage occurred near
the intersection of sechler Road and wedge drive.
Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 384
268. Zachary Labe
8:40 PM GMT on July 14, 2010
Going a new route for my new blog debuting tonight. It will save me a bit of time from now on, but hopefully provide more information and less repetition. Be sure to let me know your thoughts this evening.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
267. TheRasberryPatch
4:12 PM GMT on July 14, 2010
ugh Blizz....it's all your fault. hahaha

i can't believe it took them most of the mornng to decide to issue a flood advisory. what took them so long?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6252
266. CarolinaWXGuy
3:06 PM GMT on July 14, 2010
Finally got a good soaker yesterday evening! In fact it prompted a flash flood warning, obviously due to the heavy rain plus it was training roughly over the same areas...



Weird that it doesn't really rain for weeks then all of a sudden we've got flooding issues =p
Member Since: May 20, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 128
265. Zachary Labe
2:56 PM GMT on July 14, 2010
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
how much longer of this weather pattern Blizz? i am so ready for hot and sunny again. did you see how much rain i have gotten the past week? that is a lot for a month.

This rainy pattern looks to continue... 6z GFS total QPF for the next 16 days is 3.20in for KMDT. More slow moving fronts with training convection look likely.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
264. TheRasberryPatch
2:53 PM GMT on July 14, 2010
how much longer of this weather pattern Blizz? i am so ready for hot and sunny again. did you see how much rain i have gotten the past week? that is a lot for a month.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6252
263. Zachary Labe
2:36 PM GMT on July 14, 2010
An additional 1.58in of rain since midnight creating a storm total of 2.98in of rain here since Monday.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
260. TheRasberryPatch
11:31 AM GMT on July 14, 2010
so far 1.89" of rain since late last night. I have gotten since last friday 4.50" of rain
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6252
257. TrentonThunder
9:46 PM GMT on July 13, 2010
2.51" so far today. Sure has been a tropical day. Excessive heat watch Thursday - Friday.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
256. JonasNJ
7:21 PM GMT on July 13, 2010
I doubt this is the end of the rain for north Jersey.
Member Since: June 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 30
255. TrentonThunder
6:17 PM GMT on July 13, 2010
Another round came by. 1.70" for the day so far.

The nearest NWS station near me, Trenton, which is actualy in the suburb of Ewing, had a low of 13F and a high of 104F.

The 96-year average annual maximum temperature at Trenton is 97F.

13F is really not that cold though considering that the Trenton 116-year (winter records extend 10 years longer than summer records) average annual minimum temperature is 3F. Actually, 13F is tied for the 5th warmest annual minimum temperature.

Also, Trenton averaged 1.7 days per year below zero through 1994, which was the last year the temperature fell below zero. 16 years ago.

Snowfall in this region this year was obviously way off the charts though...

Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
254. wxgeek723
6:16 PM GMT on July 13, 2010
Well here's a tiny storm. It rained for about 5-10 minutes and nothing too noteworthy. The only thing is, my rain guage didn't pick it up. The gauge is located in the backyard, but oddly enough, it didn't rain at all in the backyard.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3472
253. Hoynieva
5:31 PM GMT on July 13, 2010
It's raining heavily here :) :) Has been coming down for about an hour as the strongest storms came right on top of us. This is beautiful :)

It's interesting the first heavy rain in over a month decided to fall just as I'm about to fly...headed to the airport...now.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
252. shipweather
5:04 PM GMT on July 13, 2010
Shoot, no 100 degree temp swing!

I'm trying to find a gauge or a public info statement with rainfall amounts in the Berks County/Lehigh Valley Area.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
251. Zachary Labe
4:48 PM GMT on July 13, 2010
Quoting shipweather:
This weather is very strange, Ship's rain gauge shows .06 when here in Kutztown (or Bethlehem where I am at work now) we've gotten way more than that in the last 30 mins alone.

Also these showers (as is common in the summer time) very much depend on where you're located). It was amazing to watch them form right over Harrisburg and just head east. Ship got nothing! Here in the LH Valley most places have near an inch some WELL MORE.

Also, I was thinking this year has been a crazy weather year. Blizz what is your high and low for the year so far? I remember first few weeks of Jan how cold it was and last week we had 100's! Crazy weather year.....

Not too cold this year compared to my negative reading last year, but it was 9F with a high this year of 101F.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
250. shipweather
4:40 PM GMT on July 13, 2010
This weather is very strange, Ship's rain gauge shows .06 when here in Kutztown (or Bethlehem where I am at work now) we've gotten way more than that in the last 30 mins alone.

Also these showers (as is common in the summer time) very much depend on where you're located). It was amazing to watch them form right over Harrisburg and just head east. Ship got nothing! Here in the LH Valley most places have near an inch some WELL MORE.

Also, I was thinking this year has been a crazy weather year. Blizz what is your high and low for the year so far? I remember first few weeks of Jan how cold it was and last week we had 100's! Crazy weather year.....
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
248. Zachary Labe
4:34 PM GMT on July 13, 2010
1.40in of rain here so far. Today should be a similar day with slow moving heavy rain thunderstorms scattered about the region.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
247. TrentonThunder
4:09 PM GMT on July 13, 2010
1 inch on the nosey here in Hamilton NJ. About 1.5 for the month. Unwatered lawns were 95% brown @ beginning of July, 70% this morning before the rain.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
245. goofyrider
3:24 PM GMT on July 13, 2010
Spring Lake

looks like w. monmouth is is going to get creamed

we are off the beaten path again
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2732
244. wxgeek723
2:17 PM GMT on July 13, 2010
Good morning all.

Decent thunderstorm just blew through Philadelphia and its immediate outer ring suburbs. I had to have gotten at least an inch of rain in about a half hour to forty-five minutes where I am in western Camden County, NJ. Will go check rain guage later. TrentonThunder, you should be getting it too, albeit a bit weaker.

Unfortunately the lawn is making a recovery. Mowing it is a detested job of mine.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3472
243. zotty
2:05 PM GMT on July 13, 2010
Hi all- I think P451, Hoy and I are in covered by the same dome. Not a drop last night in New Rochelle NY (25 miles north midtown Manhattan)
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 729
242. TheRasberryPatch
12:20 PM GMT on July 13, 2010
I got 1.23" for yesterday through 7am this morning. that should really help the grass big time
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6252
239. weathergeek5
10:36 AM GMT on July 13, 2010
I woke up to loud thunder and torrential rains this morning.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
238. Hoynieva
10:34 AM GMT on July 13, 2010
1.14" of rain is a lot...more than we've had at one time in months.

As expected it broke up just before reaching us last night. Today there's another 70% chance of rain, which goes up to 80% tonight and then down to 40% tomorrow. I'm surprised they're still predicting such high percentages considering the routine this summer.

I fear my plants will dry out while I'm away :(
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
237. TheRasberryPatch
1:45 AM GMT on July 13, 2010
good for you Blizz....i am surprised that is all you got...i wonder if Hershey got more. is that what will we expect the next couple of days? any damage?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6252
236. Zachary Labe
1:32 AM GMT on July 13, 2010
1.14in of rain here!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
235. Hoynieva
10:54 PM GMT on July 12, 2010
Yeah, F1, those numbers are pretty sad. I'm hoping the shield weakens over the next two days, but ten bucks says that line TRP speaks of will totally miss us, by either going to the North or dissipating just as it runs into the event horizon, haha. Congrats on some more rain, raspberry...
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
234. TheRasberryPatch
10:26 PM GMT on July 12, 2010
what a storm that went through Hershey. I didn't get no way near as much rain...i got 0.48", but i bet Hershey got 2" or more. i wonder what Blizz got.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6252
233. TheF1Man
5:48 PM GMT on July 12, 2010
Quoting Hoynieva:
Boy I hope that pans out, Blizz. Thanks a lot for your detailed forecast. I won't get excited because somehow the precip either breaks up or goes right around us each time there's a front, but you have at least given me some hope. QPF right in the middle of that range would be perfect, in fact I'd even take the lower end.

We had a cloud pass by just a bit ago after leaving a bar where we watched Spain win the world cup and it actually dropped a light shower which was merely enough to coat the surface...in fact the sun shined throughout. Better than nothing :)



yeah see in TT's stats, bridgeport Ct 0.00" that's pretty much how it's been for the last 1 month except for that horrible thursday afternoon storm/power outage disaster. I would lover to have some hope right now but i'm pretty sure our rain shields will kick in as always. the grass is beyond dead and cacti don't sound too bad right now! they're greener than my grass.
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
232. Hoynieva
9:27 PM GMT on July 11, 2010
Boy I hope that pans out, Blizz. Thanks a lot for your detailed forecast. I won't get excited because somehow the precip either breaks up or goes right around us each time there's a front, but you have at least given me some hope. QPF right in the middle of that range would be perfect, in fact I'd even take the lower end.

We had a cloud pass by just a bit ago after leaving a bar where we watched Spain win the world cup and it actually dropped a light shower which was merely enough to coat the surface...in fact the sun shined throughout. Better than nothing :)
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
231. Zachary Labe
6:27 PM GMT on July 11, 2010
Quoting Hoynieva:
La Nada means 'the nothing,' so that actually makes some sense, haha.

F!Man, yeah TT was kind enough to post all of our deficits and it seems we're right up there with him. I'm considering planting all cacti next year :P

Blizz, I don't want to bother you, but is there any chance that it will actually rain here in NYC on Tuesday/Wednesday like they're sort of predicting? I have to fly to Michigan for a wedding and will be gone two days, which means I have to rely on others to water and it's kind of worrying due to the fact that multiple waterings per day has become the norm over the past month or so.

No problem! Any weather question is fine with me, hahaha! It actually appears another very good chance of rain is likely Tuesday/Wednesday with a cold front passage that will washout and stall over the region. Shortwaves will run along the front enhancing PWATs near 2in causing widespread convective activity. Heavy rain is even possible in isolated locations from training pulse thunderstorms. Model consensus QPF appears to be a widespread 0.5-2.0in of rain.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
230. Hoynieva
6:14 PM GMT on July 11, 2010
La Nada means 'the nothing,' so that actually makes some sense, haha.

F!Man, yeah TT was kind enough to post all of our deficits and it seems we're right up there with him. I'm considering planting all cacti next year :P

Blizz, I don't want to bother you, but is there any chance that it will actually rain here in NYC on Tuesday/Wednesday like they're sort of predicting? I have to fly to Michigan for a wedding and will be gone two days, which means I have to rely on others to water and it's kind of worrying due to the fact that multiple waterings per day has become the norm over the past month or so.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
229. SilverShipsofAndilar
5:17 PM GMT on July 11, 2010
I found a MUCH better map. Posted May 31, 2010 - http://snowlover123.blogspot.com/2010/05/my-winter-forecast-for-2010-2011-winter.html
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
228. SilverShipsofAndilar
5:10 PM GMT on July 11, 2010
Quoting TrentonThunder:


Lol. Those snowfall prediction maps are horrendous.


LET THE GREAT EXPERIMENT BEGIIIIIIIIIIIIN!
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
227. TrentonThunder
4:50 PM GMT on July 11, 2010
Quoting Blizzard92:

Hahaha... o goodness not already. First off there is no such thing as La Nada... haha


Lol. Those snowfall prediction maps are horrendous.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
226. Zachary Labe
4:33 PM GMT on July 11, 2010
Quoting SilverShipsofAndilar:
HAHAHA, posted June 6, 2010 -http://www.weatheradvance.com/winter-outlook-2010-2011

Hahaha... o goodness not already. First off there is no such thing as La Nada... haha
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15095
225. TrentonThunder
4:23 PM GMT on July 11, 2010
Quoting TheF1Man:
Hoynieva im with you, it feels like there's a shield around my house too, everything good today went to northern CT.

trenton i think i can come in a strong second driest...


Yeah I was just going on a whim on that with no backup.

2-day rainfall totals from July 9th-10th / Rainfall deficits since June 1st. CT - NYC - PA - NJ - DE - MD - DC.


Trenton NJ 0.36" / -3.78"
JFK NY 0.00" / -3.47"
Dulles VA (DC) 0.61" / -3.37"
Mount Pocono PA 0.08" / -3.31"
LaGuardia NY T" / -3.25"
Central Park NY 0.00" / -3.08"
Baltimore MD 0.43" / -2.65"
Reading PA 0.44" / -2.52"
Newark NJ T" / -2.45"
WIlmington DE 0.76" / -2.38"
Wilkes Barre PA 0.27" / -2.10"
Philadelphia PA 0.55" / -2.04"
Atlantic City NJ 0.31" / -1.57"
Bridgeport CT 0.00" / -1.55"
Islip NY 1.19" / -1.45"
Williamsport PA 1.40" / -1.28"
Washington DC 1.19" / -1.22"
Georgetown DE 1.03" / -0.58"
Erie PA 1.22" / -0.55"
Hartford CT 0.69" / -0.34"
-----------------------------------------------
Harrisburg PA 1.51" / 0.65" above
Pittsburgh PA 1.64" / 1.31" above
Allentown PA 5.69" / 2.59" above
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
224. SilverShipsofAndilar
3:44 PM GMT on July 11, 2010
HAHAHA, posted June 6, 2010 -http://www.weatheradvance.com/winter-outlook-2010-2011
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
223. TheF1Man
3:05 AM GMT on July 11, 2010
Hoynieva im with you, it feels like there's a shield around my house too, everything good today went to northern CT.

trenton i think i can come in a strong second driest...
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676

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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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Humidity: 68%
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