Winter 2009-2010 Verification...

By: Zachary Labe , 11:02 PM GMT on March 04, 2010

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Winter Forecast 2009-2010 (December, January, February)


Fig 1.0- This is the November 21, 2008 snowstorm that brought a surprise 6inches of lake effect snow to my location. It was my favorite snow event of the season.

Wow, who can believe we are talking about winter already. It is an exciting to prospect to think that in about one month's time we will be looking at snow possibilities. Just think back last winter a large snow event hit northeastern Pennsylvania in late October, with over 2ft snow for elevations above 1800ft. Now a word of caution before the forecast... I issue my outlooks some would say a bit prematurely. Most weather enthusiasts of meteorologists issue their outlooks in October waiting to see the final details of the ENSO, but I enjoy getting my forecast out a bit early and riding with it through the winter. My forecast does not follow any pattern or structure, but a combination of historical weather patterns, forecast indices, ENSO prediction, teleconnections, forecast models, current weather patterns, and even a bit of folklore to make it interesting. Also another change this year in the forecast blog is there will be no maps for normal snowfall and temperature and such. I am still in the process of finding a new forecast map for the Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware region. So now, who is ready to talk snow? Well first we are going to take a look at a typical winter for Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware...

An average winter in Pennsylvania consists of many different types of winter weather. Winters in Pennsylvania are more severe than middle Atlantic winters and Ohio valley winters, but less severe than neighboring New England winters. On average the first snowflakes fall in mid to late October in the northwestern part of the state. And the last snowflakes typically fall in the northwestern part of the state in early May. Frost season lasts from early October to mid May in most areas. The geographic regions of Pennsylvania play a major part in snow totals and temperatures.

("Courtesy of NOAA")
There are two regions of Pennsylvania that see significantly higher snow totals than the rest of the state. The Laurel Highlands and Northwest Mountains see snow totals well over 100inches every winter. In extreme winters snow may be on the ground into June with seasonal totals of over 200inches. The seasonal snow total record is held in Corry, Pennsylvania of 237inches. The monthly snow total record is held in Blue Knob, Pennsylvania with 96inches of snow. Corry is found in the northwest mountains and Blue Knob is a ski resort found in the Laurel Highlands. Blue Knob is the highest ski able mountain in Pennsylvania. Below is a map of average seasonal snow totals in Pennsylvania.

("Courtesy of NOAA")
Different types of winter storms affect the state of Pennsylvania, clipper systems, lake effect snow outbreaks, nor'easters, advection snows, and etc. The coldest month is typically January statewide. And the snowiest month statewide is typically February. Northwest Pennsylvania typically sees a majority of their snows in Lake Effect snow outbreaks. While eastern Pennsylvania sees most of their snows from coastal storms. When coastal storms come up the coast many areas in Pennsylvania can see major snowstorms. The Poconos typically see the most snow from coastal storms due to their elevation aid to precipitation totals. Some of the greatest storm total snowfall records are actually held in eastern Pennsylvania and not in the northwest Snowbelt regions. The highest average seasonal snow average is found in Corry, Pennsylvania with an average of 118inches. While the low seasonal snow total is found in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania with 21inches of snow. As far as temperatures go the coldest temperatures are found in the Alleghany Plateau region with the lowest temperature every recorded in Pennsylvania was in Smethport with -42degrees. Temperatures typically dip below freezing every day from November to March statewide. Extreme cold outbreaks typically occur around mid to late January. At times warm thaws may occur, but they are rare and sparse. As for ice storms they typically occur in December when the sun's rays are at their lowest. Very odd winter weather features occur each year including thunder snows, etc. and thunder snows are like thunderstorms but with snow instead of rain. Snow rates up to 5inches can occur. Thunder snows are mostly likely associated with frontal passages and lake effect snows. As far as winds, typically northwest winds setup on the coldest of winter days and can gust up to 50mph. Wind chills as low as -25degrees are felt almost at least once in the mountains of Pennsylvania. On average winds gust to 30mph several times each month. For ice on waterways, many northern lakes and rivers solidly freeze every winter. For southern areas ice forms every winter, but does not necessarily become very thick. During extreme winters though even southern regions can see ice thicknesses of over a foot. The most extreme winter storms that affect Pennsylvania are nor'easters though. They affect large areas of the state with high winds and heavy precipitation. On rare occasions snow totals of over 35inches have occurred with snowdrifts as high as 6ft in many areas of eastern Pennsylvania. Winters in Pennsylvania overall are relatively severe, with geographic regions playing a major part in average snow totals and cold temperatures. Weather for parts of Maryland and Delaware could be considered a bit more uniform due to the size of the states. Maryland is a bit more varied thanks to some unique geographic features. Western Maryland particularly in Garret County is home to some extremely heavy snow thanks to its favorable upslope location allowing orographic lift to aid in heavy snow over the 2000ft+ elevations. Over 100inches of snow falls each year in parts of the county near popular resort areas such as Deep Creek. Heading east in Maryland crosses several large mountain ranges near the Cumberland Gap, the Potomac Highlands, and the Blue Ridge Mountains heading towards Hagerstown which sees a varied snowfall each season averaging around 30inches of snow less than that of most of southern Pennsylvania, excluding Philadelphia. Heading south and east towards Baltimore and Washington DC snowfall totals immensely fall off to averages from 15-20inches with similar numbers in Delaware. The palliating effects of warmth from the Atlantic allow for slightly low totals as they featured more mixed precipitation events.

I am considerably more uneasy about the forecast this year than last year as our pattern this Summer has been anything but the norm. So I am going to start in on the heart of the forecast, the ENSO prediction. This is going to be the trickiest forecast and will play a big role in this winter for much of the nation. Current SSTs for much of the equatorial Pacific average from positive anomalies from .75-1.5. El Nino patters are warmer than normal equatorial Pacific water temperatures featuring a stronger than normal jet stream over the Pacific. The stronger than normal jet stream over the eastern Pacific allows for warmer than normal temperatures for much of the nation excluding the southeast and east coast. Now a large misconception is the idea of the equation...

El Nino + winter = Little Snowfall (Wrong)

Two winters, 1972-1973 and 1997-1998 caused a bad reputation as both those winters featured an anomalous polar jet in Canada with a strong subtropical jet over the southeast allowing for an active storm track, but warmth to flood the nation. The Nino event of 97-98 had Nino 3.4 region anomalies over +3degrees. These events are rare and extraordinary. On typical El Nino events there is a strong subtropical jet allowing for an active east storm track and a phase of the polar jet for the eastern US to allow more favorably negatively tilted troughs. The winters of 57-58, 63-64, 65-66, and 77-78 all featured a very snowy winter for the eastern United States. On the other hand La Nina conditions produce nearly the opposite favoring positively tilted troughs and an active storm track over the Great Lakes. The absence after a two-year long anomalous La Nina will aid in a "better" winter for this coming year.


Fig 2.0- This chart courtesy of the Mt. Holly NWS tells an interesting story of Nina vs. Nino seasonal snow totals.

The recent ENSO event is a bit more difficult to predict than some of the past. Several conflicting events and indices are keeping a hold on the warming of the equatorial Pacific allowing for a big discrepancy on predictions.


Fig. 3.0- Current SSTs anomalies for the equatorial Pacific are as followed for the average in the past week. Nino 4- +.9C, Nino 3.4- +.9C, Nino 3- +1.0C, and Nino 1+2- +.8C.

These numbers generally follow with weak El Nino conditions. But the Nino has been strengthening with about a half a degree increase since May of 2009. But there are several indices that prove against a strong Nino event making it very difficult to reach strong conditions. The current ONI (Oceanic Nino Index) shows a current average reading of +.6. A value above .5 is usually indicative of a Nino event, but being that we are in September looking back at analogs I cannot really find any strong Nino events with an ONI reading of only .6. For instance the winter of 97-98 featured an ONI reading of nearly 2.5 at the height of the ENSO event. By the way the Oceanic Nino index is an average of Nino 3.4 region temperatures. The closest match I could find looking at analogs is 69-70 with a reading of .8. You will hear a bit more about the summer of 1969 further down. Also the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) is not favorable for too much strengthening in the Nino department with readings averaging around -5.0. Negative values typically correspond to Nino events with positive readings in association with Nina events. Looking back at the summer of 69 SOI readings were at -4.4 for August similar to this past August's reading of -5.0. Again proving against a strong Nino this year the August average of the Summer of 72 had a value of -8.9 and -14.8 in September. So once again this value of -5.0 is favoring a weaker El Nino.

But there are a couple of indices arguing towards a moderate El Nino which is what I am favoring currently. The latest MEI (Multivariate ENSO Index) reading was released of +.98 which puts the Nino considered for this index in the moderate category. The index takes a look at six variables for the genetic makeup of an ENSO event including things such as cloudiness and zonal SSTs. Winters such as the El Nino of 2002-2003 featured a max of a MEI of +1.4. Typically by this time of the year the MEI extreme readings from month to month slow down so now I believe we can definitely call that an El Nino is here stay for at least part of the winter.

Finally there is an evident Westerly Wind burst ongoing and transitioning across the eastern Pacific also associated with the next Kelvin Wave. This will allow for an increase in SST anomalies in the positive range during the next 3-7 weeks. Tropical forcing and a lacking influencing MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) has also posed some interesting possibilities for this year’s ENSO event that will separate it from the past. When you think about it we only have data from about the 50s for ENSOs and a 50 year time frame doesn't pose to be too helpful when looking for analogs. This year's El Nino is going to be quite different from the pasts El Nino as we are coming off of a negative AAM and negative PDO regime. Also we are coming off of a back to back year La Nina which proved to be one of the strongest on record. As we saw in the Summer residual effects continue to linger from the La Nina until about early August where the summer pattern took a more El Nino type regime. This brings me up to the next point of the current PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation). The PDO has been on the rise for the past few months, now that is semi expected as we exit the dominant PDO regime in the Summer. But as we headed into August values continued not to plummet like previous years. I believe we are finally heading out of the previous negative PDO time frame. Still we will have a dominant negative PDO this winter under the influence of the previous La Nina, this cool phase will also keep in line the strengthening El Nino.

So in general we have an interesting ENSO forecast. With discrepancies in the indices and observations it goes against a strong El Nino which is typically a positive for winters in the Middle Atlantic. It appears I will stick with a low-end moderate El Nino courtesy of the intensifying westerly wind burst over the Eastern Pacific which will enhance SSTs. But I cannot discount a very weak Nino by February as this Nino has proven to show weak footing in the Pacific. Generally speaking despite weak or moderate Nino status, this will favor an active east coast storm track.

Looking more in the teleconnection data the NAO will prove key in this winter. Generally this past Summer has featured a strong western based negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation).


Fig. 4.0- It is enticing seeing a return to a positive NAO to allow the cold air in the Arctic rebuilds. Typically in the fall a below normal temperature October with a positive NAO corresponds to a cold winter. This allows the cold air to build over the Arctic Circle.

And this quick rebuilding period under the generally dominated negative NAO this past year will not last too long. I have been for years one to believe in a NAO several year cycle. The past year seems to be an upswing in the absent western based negative NAO. Typically a negative NAO and weak to moderate El Nino produces an extremely snow winter. This allows the cold air to funnel down the east coast with the active subtropical jet. The phasing of the polar jet and subtropical jet produces some large Miller A type systems out of the Gulf of Mexico. Fluctuations in the NAO from positive to negative typically are a predecessor for a large coastal storm so a steady negative NAO is not what one should look for. A more neutral NAO is the most favorable for coastal storms. Some unusual SSTs near Green and the position of the Aleutian Low have possibly favored a more positive NAO this winter, but for now there is now definite evidence against a negative NAO dominating for much of the winter. The AO and PNA will also be interesting to watch this winter with regards to their effects on the continental US's weather.

I had a difficult time finding analogs this winter with a transition from a strong La Nina to a weak to moderate El Nino regime coupled with unusual GAAM, SOI, PDO, etc readings. A few matches prove semi-close for different parts of the spectrum. The Summer of 1969 and 1973 seem to be the closest matches to the Summer of 2009. They both featured Julys that were cooler than August along with mild Aprils followed by a cooler Summer. But the 1969-1970 season was on a two year El Nino regime, unlike us entering a Nino which sort of discounts it. Also 1973 Pacific variables just do not seem to match current 2009 August and September readings. I always exercise caution when regards to analog years as no two years are unlike and one cannot verbatim take the winter of 1969-1970 with seasonal snow totals and say that is the same snow totals we are going to see for 2009-2010. Many people make this foolish move. Other years of close ENSO patterns still show up with 2002-2003 with a weak to moderate El Nino. As mentioned earlier several indices are pretty similar to date.

Looking on the solar field, one again the sun is blank. No sunspots to be found and only a small flare was discovered the other day after nearly 60 days+ of non activity. Sunspots are dark regions on the Sun's surface that are associated with heightened solar activity hence a strong influx of heat. Without the sun there is no weather, so there has to be some sort of connection between sunspots and the troposphere weather zone. Despite criticism in the scientific community, I thoroughly believe that a reduction in solar activity does result in a global negative temperature by about -.2-.5. Despite this low temperature variance, a small temperature difference can make a large difference. I was doing some analyzing the other day of the stratosphere and coupled with some volcanic activity in the northern Hemisphere and low solar activity there will likely be some stratospheric warming which typically results in a larger and more widespread pool of arctic air in the winter. I do believe the low solar activity will result in some cooler than normal temperatures for parts of the globe this winter and we may have already seen some results in the past Summer with one of the coolest Summers on record for the continental US. Generally speaking the year 1998, the warmest year on record across the globe, since then temperatures have slowly fallen on average across the Earth. There is no global warming argument in my discussion, but more pointing at the impacts of the solar activity. Since then we have hit a relative minima in sunspots for a several year period corresponding to cooler temperatures by a slim margin since 1998. Many scientists agree low solar activity precluded the Little Ice Age. Despite your beliefs on the controversial subject of sunspots, we are once again entering a low sunspot activity year with a blank sun currently as of September 5.

Current global climate prediction models are also hinting at a colder winter than normal in the DJF time period with the CFS leading in the extreme predictions. Latest predictions are very inline with a typical El Nino pattern with warmer than normal temperatures from the Great Lakes on westward with cooler than normal temperatures from the southeast through the Middle Atlantic. Also I heard through grapevine that the ECMWF long range is particularly interesting in the winter time period with cooler than normal anomalies from once again the Ohio Valley on eastward. I do not give models to much credit due to several biases especially on the CFS that exist, though.

Lastly a bit a fun looking at folklore. Typically the good rules of thumb for a cold winter exist in nature around us and I think with the development of technology we have somewhat gone away from our past culture. In any case Pennsylvania Dutch traditions remain alive and well for forecasting the weather. This season shows completely black wooly caterpillars which supposedly by legend calls for a cold winter. Also acorns are plentiful this year with trees being quite full. Typically when leaves are full around the sides that is a predecessor for a mild winter. Also the latest Farmer’s Almanac prediction is out for a bitterly cold winter for much of the nation with above normal snowfall.

So here is my official forecast after the more scientific approach above. Reading between the lines you can see I am favoring a snowy winter with normal to slightly below normal temperatures. I think this winter will be very active in the storm track department causing an abundance of snow for the Middle Atlantic. As many know I am always excited about the weather, but my true excitement is only shown every now and then. This winter is the first winter I truly am enthused for the prospects of a snowy winter for the Middle Atlantic. Elsewhere across the United States I think a mild and dry winter is in store for the Great Lakes and western US with a snowy and below normal winter for the southeast. Here are some statistics looking more detailed into the winter for the Middle Atlantic...

Average monthly temperature anomalies region wide...
December- (+.2-.5)
January- (-.3-.4)
February- (-.5-.8)

Average monthly precipitation anomalies region wide...
December- +1.00inches
January- +0.75inches
February- +1.80inches

Average monthly snow total anomalies region wide...
December- -2inches
January- +1inch
February +4inches

Those above statistics take an approach looking at how the winter may pan out according to my forecast with a snowier and colder winter towards February. But still the beginning of winter should be near normal. Those predictions were taken on account of similar analog patterns and ENSO averages.

As we all know long range seasonal forecasts are extremely difficult and at times some may say relatively worthless. But I enjoy the challenge of looking at global patterns and throwing together some analogs to make prediction. Despite the outcome of any forecast, I enjoy the trial and error and value of learning from a mistake. It can only further our understanding of the world's atmosphere around us. I off course will open up this blog again March 1 and make a verification blog as I did this previous Summer. My Winter forecast of 2008-2009 was pretty close to accurate especially in the temperature department. Precipitation is typically a much more variable prediction, but this season I feel more confident on the snowfall forecast with seasonal to above normal snowfall than my temperature call. The difficult for snow predictions is it only takes one large KU storm to throw things out of proportion. I am excited about discussions this year we are going to have before storms and I still get a chuckle when looking back on the past two winters discussions such as our love for PENNDOT, lol. In any case this season will surely prove busy here in the blog especially now being a featured blog. Feel free anyone to always post their thoughts whether for or against another's predictions. Challenges make things interesting in the meteorological field. This current blog will be posted through the week and I hope with the current quiet weather pattern, that we can get some good winter prospects discussions. So get ready and strap in the roller coaster, it is going to be one wild ride!!!

For the final section, I thought it would be interesting to post some archived maps of major nor'easters of our past courtesy of Penn State Meteo. EWall...

12 February 1983...


7 January 1996...


14 March 1993...


17 February 2003...


"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2009-2010 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- T
Monthly Total- 0.00in
Seasonal Total- 70.10in
October Total- Trace
November Total- Trace
December Total- 16.0in
January Total- 2.1in
February Total- 52.00in
March Total- 0.00in
Winter Weather Advisories- 7
Winter Storm Warnings- 3
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 2
Winter Storm Watches- 4

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 18.8F
Lowest Low Temperature- 9.3F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Winter Storms Stats)
Dec 5 - 1.5in - First accumulating snow of season
Dec 8-9 - 2.5in - Snow changed to plain rain
Dec 13 - .1in - Freezing rain
Dec 19 - 9.0in - Heavy snow, higher amounts to south
Dec 31 - 3.0in - 2.5hr warm air advection event
Dec 31 #2 - .2in - Freezing rain/sleet later in day
Jan 8 - 1.5in - Light snow associated with clipper
Feb 2 - 3.75in - Weak coastal storm
Feb 5-7 - 19.0in - 10th largest snowstorm on record
Feb 9-10 - 20.5in - Blizzard conditions/snow depth up to 36in
Feb 15-16 - 1.25in - Light snow from clipper
Feb 25-26 - 5.25in - Wind blow/drifting cutoff low
Feb 28 - 1.0in - Wet snow

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232. Ballooner
4:18 PM GMT on March 14, 2010
HI,

Livingston NJ reported small hail earlier this morning, 200,000 customers in NJ without power. definitely the worst wind and rain since hurricane Floyd, I would say. Driving was unbelievable Sat. afternoon. NJ Transit shut down most of it's train service.

Some serious flooding expected. We got hammered worse than I expected.

northern, NJ
Member Since: December 22, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 36
231. Zachary Labe
3:11 PM GMT on March 14, 2010
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
Blizz - was that by cocorah's rain gauge or Davis? your rain totals? come summer we will be wishing we could get this type of rain

That was by the Davis, cocorah gauge is usually about +- .03in as was this morning.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15117
230. TheRasberryPatch
3:01 PM GMT on March 14, 2010
Blizz - was that by cocorah's rain gauge or Davis? your rain totals? come summer we will be wishing we could get this type of rain
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6264
229. Zachary Labe
2:37 PM GMT on March 14, 2010
Looks like 1.29in of rain is the total here with some additional rainfall later this morning likely.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15117
228. pittsburghnurse
1:26 PM GMT on March 14, 2010
Quoting Blizzard92:

Nope heaviest rain is over; any additional rainfall should be less than .25in.


***I am in the process of writing a new blog which will debut later tomorrow in the Spring format. This format will feature a redesigned layout including new sections such as the 'learning corner' along with the typical regional forecasts, etc. This week's topic in that small 'learning corner' section will feature Operational Forecasting, which is essentially... What are computer models and those fancy terms often referenced here such as the GFS? I hope this new section offers a bit of aid to those often baffled by some of the acronym terminology in the blogs above.


Here in Pittsburgh, the rain is kind of a disappointment. Was hoping for some rain that came down hard enough and long enough to clean the debris from the recent storms off the streets. A little thunder would have been too much? This morning is dry with no rain on the radar in the next hour or so.

Blizz, your upcoming Spring blog sounds perfect for someone like me who needs some education on the fine points. Looking forward to it Blizz, and anything that doesn't put winter in the limelight.

The birds have begun their spring concert season. Loving it.

Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
226. Hoynieva
12:33 PM GMT on March 14, 2010
Terrible about that flight, btw, goofyrider. That's one of the worst feelings bouncing around up there in the clouds just hoping the turbulence ends and the giant metal bird withstands the assault. Glad to hear they're safe and sound on solid ground.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1519
225. Hoynieva
12:23 PM GMT on March 14, 2010
Heads up, P451, they're headed your way. Looks like central and northern NJ will get them as well as extreme Eastern Pennsylvania and Southern, NY. Could hit more people depending how long they maintain their strength, though likely not very long in this chilly weather.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1519
224. Hoynieva
12:12 PM GMT on March 14, 2010
Thunderstorm over Brooklyn right now with a temperature of only 46 degrees. First lighning and thunder I've seen though it's a very small area of convection and will therefore be brief. First thunder I've heard in a long time has me excited for the upcoming severe weather this Spring. I see many tstorms popping up off the coast and heading through new jersey at the moment so maybe we will get a couple more today. Funny, forecasts never mentioned these...
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1519
223. TheRasberryPatch
11:54 AM GMT on March 14, 2010
Using the Cocorah's rain gauge I have rain for yesterday (of course with the gauge emptied @7am) 0.91" and a total for the storm of 1.37". Now with my Davis I have a total rainfall of 1.44"
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6264
222. goofyrider
10:23 AM GMT on March 14, 2010

Yesterday was one of these times that a wind gage would have been useful. Around 1400 I could feel the house (21/2 story cape) sway. This usually takes winds above 60-70 mph. Looking at nearby instrumentation only showed 40-45 mph. This am found one of the sites at near 60.
Drove to EWR about 1500. Few detours due to accidents/downed lines etc. Nearly hit a large sign in the express lane of the GSP near MP 122. This is a wide open area called Cheesequake and wind/rain made the sign hard to see. Good thing it was daylight.

Got to the airport to collect family. This flight was a 9 hr jaunt from Frankfurt. Daughter noted that they were in continuous turbulence from about 1500 until they landed about 1600. The little guy (12 mos.) threw up as did nearly everyone else. She described it as the worst she had seen as a passenger.

Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2869
221. Hoynieva
5:19 AM GMT on March 14, 2010
We've now had over 4" of rain here in the NYC area. Glad to see the rain actually take a break the past thirty minutes for the first time in over 24 hours.

I'll check out your new blog tomorrow, Blizz...it'll likely teach me some things I've been wondering about.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1519
220. Zachary Labe
2:35 AM GMT on March 14, 2010
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
1.44" of rain so far for the storm

do we have more left coming our way?

Nope heaviest rain is over; any additional rainfall should be less than .25in.


***I am in the process of writing a new blog which will debut later tomorrow in the Spring format. This format will feature a redesigned layout including new sections such as the 'learning corner' along with the typical regional forecasts, etc. This week's topic in that small 'learning corner' section will feature Operational Forecasting, which is essentially... What are computer models and those fancy terms often referenced here such as the GFS? I hope this new section offers a bit of aid to those often baffled by some of the acronym terminology in the blogs above.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15117
219. TheRasberryPatch
2:25 AM GMT on March 14, 2010
1.44" of rain so far for the storm

do we have more left coming our way?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6264
218. wxgeek723
2:12 AM GMT on March 14, 2010
Quoting synthman19872003:
Yeah, wish I was there in NJ, especially back in Winter when y'all had... what... like 25,000 inches of snow LOL... EPIC!!! =)


Try 80, lol.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3685
217. Zachary Labe
1:09 AM GMT on March 14, 2010
1.29in of rain for storm total so far.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15117
216. synthman19872003
12:50 AM GMT on March 14, 2010
Yeah, wish I was there in NJ, especially back in Winter when y'all had... what... like 25,000 inches of snow LOL... EPIC!!! =)
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 4045
215. wxgeek723
12:43 AM GMT on March 14, 2010
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
sounds like some white knuckle time for your Dad, wxgeek...driving in those conditions is never fun...i hope your parents found a place with all that trouble...

now at 1.39" for the storm


Lol, nah we had fun.

Quoting synthman19872003:
Amazing wind and rain reports! Looks like NJ has just been the absolute epicenter of all the storminess over these past several months! =0


Isn't it wonderful? Lol.

Well I can assure you most shore areas have been douged in oceanwater today. I saw a picture out of Wildwood and they're experiencing major flooding. I am seeing an army of PSEG trucks all over the place.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3685
214. synthman19872003
12:40 AM GMT on March 14, 2010
Quoting Blizzard92:
P451- Believe me I know, they waited until the crane crashed into a casino in Atlantic City before issuing a warning, ugh.
Reminds me of when they wait until a fatal crash before putting up lights at a dangerous intersection, which unfortunately was the case just down the road from here a few years back :(
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 4045
213. Zachary Labe
12:34 AM GMT on March 14, 2010
P451- Believe me I know, they waited until the crane crashed into a casino in Atlantic City before issuing a warning, ugh.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15117
211. Zachary Labe
12:26 AM GMT on March 14, 2010
Quoting synthman19872003:
Amazing wind and rain reports! Looks like NJ has just been the absolute epicenter of all the storminess over these past several months! =0

I would say so, they continue to get pounded with all of these anomalous coastals this El Nino seaon.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15117
210. synthman19872003
12:25 AM GMT on March 14, 2010
Amazing wind and rain reports! Looks like NJ has just been the absolute epicenter of all the storminess over these past several months! =0
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 4045
209. Zachary Labe
12:19 AM GMT on March 14, 2010
Station ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ...

68knot gust at 6:18pm (78mph)

Link.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15117
206. Zachary Labe
12:11 AM GMT on March 14, 2010
Quoting P451:
JFK: WOW!


Wind Speed: E 40 G 74 MPH


Wow is right! Listening to the damage reports, I cannot imagine what Long Island and the southeastern boroughs of NYC are going to be like after a hurricane.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15117
203. Hoynieva
11:51 PM GMT on March 13, 2010
Rain has been moderate to heavy most of the day here in NYC, with the winds quite gusty most of the time but especially the past twenty minutes. Winds are now gusting over 50 and, for the first time since I moved into this new place, I had to go anchor things down on the balcony. Even a 12" terra cotta pot with soaking wet soil in it was blowing around. We had .15" prior to midnight last night and since that time an additional 2.40," which puts us over 2.5." I expect to get at least the 4" predicted from these systems as off and on rain persists over the area through Monday. The day was a total wash, only left the house to get a few items my girlfriend needed to cook lunch and once again the streets were an umbrella graveyard. Feels like a tropical storm, to tell you the truth.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1519
202. Zachary Labe
11:45 PM GMT on March 13, 2010
wxgeek723- Thanks for posting! New Jersey has been getting slammed with this storm; at least the dry slot has entered much of the central and southern portions of the state.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15117
201. TheRasberryPatch
11:39 PM GMT on March 13, 2010
sounds like some white knuckle time for your Dad, wxgeek...driving in those conditions is never fun...i hope your parents found a place with all that trouble...

now at 1.39" for the storm
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6264
200. weathergeek5
11:31 PM GMT on March 13, 2010
From the 6ABC website:

ATLANTIC CITY - March 13, 2010 (WPVI) -- High winds are being blamed for a crane collapse in Atlantic City.


The tower crane that came down was one of several used to construct the Revel Casino at Massachusetts and the Boardwalk.

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The crane collapsed at around 3:00 p.m.

The same high winds sent debris from the unfinished building sailing through the air; some of it landing more than four blocks away.

Because of concerns about the flying debris and the additional cranes at the construction site, Atlantic City fire department ordered the evacuation of the low-rise Beachgate and high-rise Bella condominiums.

"What I know is, pieces of the Revel went through my front windshield; the Bella was kind enough to let me park it inside to protect it more," Jeff Rosenberger of Atlantic City said.

However, it's not just high-rises that are a concern. A rowhome in the 1800 block of Artic Avenue came crashing down at around 1:00 p.m. when high winds ripped through that neighborhood.

"The winds were in excess of 80 miles per hour," Chief Dennis Brooks of the Atlantic City Fire Department said.

The home wasn't occupied and neither was a second home around the corner that was also in imminent danger of collapse. But next to that home, whose residents were evacuated for their safety.

(Copyright %uFFFD2010 WPVI-TV/DT. All Rights Reserved.)
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
197. wxgeek723
11:13 PM GMT on March 13, 2010
Hey Bliz and others, let me just say this is a storm I will not soon forget. And I just had my adventure all typed out, but I clicked out of it not realizing I hadn't posted it yet, so now I'm enthralled. Lol

Anyway, my dad is insane and decided today would be a decent day to go look at vacation houses and see what's going on. My mom agreed to it. I had nothin' to do today so I figured I'd go along with them.

Things were going pretty smooth until we entered the main rural areas, where I contracted a decent stomachache (I have bad stomach issues). So we turned around and went back to the shopping center we just passed. It was in Hammonton, an affluent farm town (blueberry capital of the world!) which is say halfway between Atlantic City and Philadelphia. I went into a food market and yeah...

We decided to take the back routes because there is a "back way" to everywhere in South Jersey. As we got into these rural areas, you could see the heavy rain falling sideways in sheets due to the nasty wind on the farms. The forest by the road and parts of the road itself were submerged.

It wasn't so bad until we reached the Mullica River. It had overflown onto the road, with about 3-4 inches of water. When we drove over it, there was water everywhere.

We were en route to Tuckerton, a bay town in extreme southern Ocean County, about 10 miles north of Atlantic City. Conveniently (sarcasm), Tuckerton is generally northeast from where I live. When we got into town, it was a mess. Side streets were submerged, the wind was scratching hurricane force, lagoons had white caps, and main streets became causeways.

If anything, the wind was fierce. I had some trouble holding the door open due to the force of it. I jumped and was pushed. The bay was also coming at us. Normally you would see meadows and sea grass, but there was nothing but water. The area routinely floods during nor'easters, but this was particularly bad. So yes I rode out the worst of the storm at the best (in our opinion anyway, lol) place to be in this case - the Jersey Shore.

Getting home was also an adventure. We briefly took the Garden State Parkway, where all surrounding ground was underwater or about to be. We could have taken the Atlantic City Expressway home, and would've arrived back a lot faster, but we took some other roads instead.

This became extremely annoying as we constantly ran into detours due to a downed tree or powerline. Getting off the parkway there were also two cables blowing around and occasionally touching and emitting some electric shock. So I got my wish, to survey the damage over a portion of the region.

We finally got in at 5:00, where we should've got home at 3:30. Again, I will not soon forget the nor'easter of March 2010. Lol.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3685
196. TheRasberryPatch
10:23 PM GMT on March 13, 2010
moderate rain with breezy conditions

so far 1.18" of rain.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6264
195. flattyboy50
10:16 PM GMT on March 13, 2010
S.Delaware (Sussex Co.) 3.48" storm total
Member Since: December 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 155
194. Zachary Labe
9:55 PM GMT on March 13, 2010
This was a pretty epic model fail storm. While some areas have gotten decent rainfall amounts, on general the regionwide 2.5in minimum with up to 5in will not be reached. The ECMWF had the highest QPF with the NAM/SREF having the lowest. New Jersey received quite a bit of rain and a narrow band in southern Pennsylvania received a bit, but across Maryland, most of Pennsylvania, New York, Virginia, rainfall was much lower than expected. For instance drizzle here currently with 0.99in of rain for a storm total.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15117
193. flattyboy50
9:50 PM GMT on March 13, 2010
Hi Patch...Just too darn wet & muddy/flooded to make Smitties. `sides that they cancelled the parade!!!
Member Since: December 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 155
192. TheRasberryPatch
9:39 PM GMT on March 13, 2010
flattyboy - this is a day to spend at Smitty's I guess, especially with St. Patty's day coming. do you play the trivia game there?
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6264
191. cchamp6
9:16 PM GMT on March 13, 2010
Checking in from Litchfield Ct. 38 degrees rain and snow mix. Moderate to heavy winds gusting to around 35 mph.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1675
190. weathergeek5
9:03 PM GMT on March 13, 2010
Yep us First-Staters must represent!!
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
189. flattyboy50
8:57 PM GMT on March 13, 2010
Quoting weathergeek5:


Wilmington, De. I can see the city buildings from my house.
Thanks fellow First-Stater. I am at the other end, down south, in Millsboro.
Member Since: December 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 155
188. weathergeek5
8:38 PM GMT on March 13, 2010
Quoting flattyboy50:
weathergeek5- where are you located?


Wilmington, De. I can see the city buildings from my house.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
187. flattyboy50
8:05 PM GMT on March 13, 2010
Quoting weathergeek5:
Here in Delaware very heavy rain and flood warnings all over the place now. We are at the point where we need a dry spell now. We cannot handle any more precipitation for the time being.
weathergeek5- where are you located?
Member Since: December 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 155
186. originalLT
7:54 PM GMT on March 13, 2010
I am under the intense red color now in the radar, rain is very heavy, coming down horizontally, wind 25-35mph gusts to 40mph.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7886
185. weathergeek5
7:40 PM GMT on March 13, 2010
Here in Delaware very heavy rain and flood warnings all over the place now. We are at the point where we need a dry spell now. We cannot handle any more precipitation for the time being.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
183. flattyboy50
7:12 PM GMT on March 13, 2010
Blizz, How much do you expect this El Nino to relax in the coming months leading up to the HCN season?
Member Since: December 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 155
182. flattyboy50
6:51 PM GMT on March 13, 2010
Barometer down to 29.23" and still falling here inland southern Delaware about 13 miles. Had 3.31" rain in the gauge. Highest wind gust:ESE 52 MPH at 0719. Only light rain now, sky much brighter.
Member Since: December 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 155

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