Winter 2009-2010 Verification...

By: Zachary Labe , 11:02 PM GMT on March 04, 2010

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Winter Forecast 2009-2010 (December, January, February)


Fig 1.0- This is the November 21, 2008 snowstorm that brought a surprise 6inches of lake effect snow to my location. It was my favorite snow event of the season.

Wow, who can believe we are talking about winter already. It is an exciting to prospect to think that in about one month's time we will be looking at snow possibilities. Just think back last winter a large snow event hit northeastern Pennsylvania in late October, with over 2ft snow for elevations above 1800ft. Now a word of caution before the forecast... I issue my outlooks some would say a bit prematurely. Most weather enthusiasts of meteorologists issue their outlooks in October waiting to see the final details of the ENSO, but I enjoy getting my forecast out a bit early and riding with it through the winter. My forecast does not follow any pattern or structure, but a combination of historical weather patterns, forecast indices, ENSO prediction, teleconnections, forecast models, current weather patterns, and even a bit of folklore to make it interesting. Also another change this year in the forecast blog is there will be no maps for normal snowfall and temperature and such. I am still in the process of finding a new forecast map for the Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware region. So now, who is ready to talk snow? Well first we are going to take a look at a typical winter for Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware...

An average winter in Pennsylvania consists of many different types of winter weather. Winters in Pennsylvania are more severe than middle Atlantic winters and Ohio valley winters, but less severe than neighboring New England winters. On average the first snowflakes fall in mid to late October in the northwestern part of the state. And the last snowflakes typically fall in the northwestern part of the state in early May. Frost season lasts from early October to mid May in most areas. The geographic regions of Pennsylvania play a major part in snow totals and temperatures.

("Courtesy of NOAA")
There are two regions of Pennsylvania that see significantly higher snow totals than the rest of the state. The Laurel Highlands and Northwest Mountains see snow totals well over 100inches every winter. In extreme winters snow may be on the ground into June with seasonal totals of over 200inches. The seasonal snow total record is held in Corry, Pennsylvania of 237inches. The monthly snow total record is held in Blue Knob, Pennsylvania with 96inches of snow. Corry is found in the northwest mountains and Blue Knob is a ski resort found in the Laurel Highlands. Blue Knob is the highest ski able mountain in Pennsylvania. Below is a map of average seasonal snow totals in Pennsylvania.

("Courtesy of NOAA")
Different types of winter storms affect the state of Pennsylvania, clipper systems, lake effect snow outbreaks, nor'easters, advection snows, and etc. The coldest month is typically January statewide. And the snowiest month statewide is typically February. Northwest Pennsylvania typically sees a majority of their snows in Lake Effect snow outbreaks. While eastern Pennsylvania sees most of their snows from coastal storms. When coastal storms come up the coast many areas in Pennsylvania can see major snowstorms. The Poconos typically see the most snow from coastal storms due to their elevation aid to precipitation totals. Some of the greatest storm total snowfall records are actually held in eastern Pennsylvania and not in the northwest Snowbelt regions. The highest average seasonal snow average is found in Corry, Pennsylvania with an average of 118inches. While the low seasonal snow total is found in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania with 21inches of snow. As far as temperatures go the coldest temperatures are found in the Alleghany Plateau region with the lowest temperature every recorded in Pennsylvania was in Smethport with -42degrees. Temperatures typically dip below freezing every day from November to March statewide. Extreme cold outbreaks typically occur around mid to late January. At times warm thaws may occur, but they are rare and sparse. As for ice storms they typically occur in December when the sun's rays are at their lowest. Very odd winter weather features occur each year including thunder snows, etc. and thunder snows are like thunderstorms but with snow instead of rain. Snow rates up to 5inches can occur. Thunder snows are mostly likely associated with frontal passages and lake effect snows. As far as winds, typically northwest winds setup on the coldest of winter days and can gust up to 50mph. Wind chills as low as -25degrees are felt almost at least once in the mountains of Pennsylvania. On average winds gust to 30mph several times each month. For ice on waterways, many northern lakes and rivers solidly freeze every winter. For southern areas ice forms every winter, but does not necessarily become very thick. During extreme winters though even southern regions can see ice thicknesses of over a foot. The most extreme winter storms that affect Pennsylvania are nor'easters though. They affect large areas of the state with high winds and heavy precipitation. On rare occasions snow totals of over 35inches have occurred with snowdrifts as high as 6ft in many areas of eastern Pennsylvania. Winters in Pennsylvania overall are relatively severe, with geographic regions playing a major part in average snow totals and cold temperatures. Weather for parts of Maryland and Delaware could be considered a bit more uniform due to the size of the states. Maryland is a bit more varied thanks to some unique geographic features. Western Maryland particularly in Garret County is home to some extremely heavy snow thanks to its favorable upslope location allowing orographic lift to aid in heavy snow over the 2000ft+ elevations. Over 100inches of snow falls each year in parts of the county near popular resort areas such as Deep Creek. Heading east in Maryland crosses several large mountain ranges near the Cumberland Gap, the Potomac Highlands, and the Blue Ridge Mountains heading towards Hagerstown which sees a varied snowfall each season averaging around 30inches of snow less than that of most of southern Pennsylvania, excluding Philadelphia. Heading south and east towards Baltimore and Washington DC snowfall totals immensely fall off to averages from 15-20inches with similar numbers in Delaware. The palliating effects of warmth from the Atlantic allow for slightly low totals as they featured more mixed precipitation events.

I am considerably more uneasy about the forecast this year than last year as our pattern this Summer has been anything but the norm. So I am going to start in on the heart of the forecast, the ENSO prediction. This is going to be the trickiest forecast and will play a big role in this winter for much of the nation. Current SSTs for much of the equatorial Pacific average from positive anomalies from .75-1.5. El Nino patters are warmer than normal equatorial Pacific water temperatures featuring a stronger than normal jet stream over the Pacific. The stronger than normal jet stream over the eastern Pacific allows for warmer than normal temperatures for much of the nation excluding the southeast and east coast. Now a large misconception is the idea of the equation...

El Nino + winter = Little Snowfall (Wrong)

Two winters, 1972-1973 and 1997-1998 caused a bad reputation as both those winters featured an anomalous polar jet in Canada with a strong subtropical jet over the southeast allowing for an active storm track, but warmth to flood the nation. The Nino event of 97-98 had Nino 3.4 region anomalies over +3degrees. These events are rare and extraordinary. On typical El Nino events there is a strong subtropical jet allowing for an active east storm track and a phase of the polar jet for the eastern US to allow more favorably negatively tilted troughs. The winters of 57-58, 63-64, 65-66, and 77-78 all featured a very snowy winter for the eastern United States. On the other hand La Nina conditions produce nearly the opposite favoring positively tilted troughs and an active storm track over the Great Lakes. The absence after a two-year long anomalous La Nina will aid in a "better" winter for this coming year.


Fig 2.0- This chart courtesy of the Mt. Holly NWS tells an interesting story of Nina vs. Nino seasonal snow totals.

The recent ENSO event is a bit more difficult to predict than some of the past. Several conflicting events and indices are keeping a hold on the warming of the equatorial Pacific allowing for a big discrepancy on predictions.


Fig. 3.0- Current SSTs anomalies for the equatorial Pacific are as followed for the average in the past week. Nino 4- +.9C, Nino 3.4- +.9C, Nino 3- +1.0C, and Nino 1+2- +.8C.

These numbers generally follow with weak El Nino conditions. But the Nino has been strengthening with about a half a degree increase since May of 2009. But there are several indices that prove against a strong Nino event making it very difficult to reach strong conditions. The current ONI (Oceanic Nino Index) shows a current average reading of +.6. A value above .5 is usually indicative of a Nino event, but being that we are in September looking back at analogs I cannot really find any strong Nino events with an ONI reading of only .6. For instance the winter of 97-98 featured an ONI reading of nearly 2.5 at the height of the ENSO event. By the way the Oceanic Nino index is an average of Nino 3.4 region temperatures. The closest match I could find looking at analogs is 69-70 with a reading of .8. You will hear a bit more about the summer of 1969 further down. Also the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) is not favorable for too much strengthening in the Nino department with readings averaging around -5.0. Negative values typically correspond to Nino events with positive readings in association with Nina events. Looking back at the summer of 69 SOI readings were at -4.4 for August similar to this past August's reading of -5.0. Again proving against a strong Nino this year the August average of the Summer of 72 had a value of -8.9 and -14.8 in September. So once again this value of -5.0 is favoring a weaker El Nino.

But there are a couple of indices arguing towards a moderate El Nino which is what I am favoring currently. The latest MEI (Multivariate ENSO Index) reading was released of +.98 which puts the Nino considered for this index in the moderate category. The index takes a look at six variables for the genetic makeup of an ENSO event including things such as cloudiness and zonal SSTs. Winters such as the El Nino of 2002-2003 featured a max of a MEI of +1.4. Typically by this time of the year the MEI extreme readings from month to month slow down so now I believe we can definitely call that an El Nino is here stay for at least part of the winter.

Finally there is an evident Westerly Wind burst ongoing and transitioning across the eastern Pacific also associated with the next Kelvin Wave. This will allow for an increase in SST anomalies in the positive range during the next 3-7 weeks. Tropical forcing and a lacking influencing MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) has also posed some interesting possibilities for this year’s ENSO event that will separate it from the past. When you think about it we only have data from about the 50s for ENSOs and a 50 year time frame doesn't pose to be too helpful when looking for analogs. This year's El Nino is going to be quite different from the pasts El Nino as we are coming off of a negative AAM and negative PDO regime. Also we are coming off of a back to back year La Nina which proved to be one of the strongest on record. As we saw in the Summer residual effects continue to linger from the La Nina until about early August where the summer pattern took a more El Nino type regime. This brings me up to the next point of the current PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation). The PDO has been on the rise for the past few months, now that is semi expected as we exit the dominant PDO regime in the Summer. But as we headed into August values continued not to plummet like previous years. I believe we are finally heading out of the previous negative PDO time frame. Still we will have a dominant negative PDO this winter under the influence of the previous La Nina, this cool phase will also keep in line the strengthening El Nino.

So in general we have an interesting ENSO forecast. With discrepancies in the indices and observations it goes against a strong El Nino which is typically a positive for winters in the Middle Atlantic. It appears I will stick with a low-end moderate El Nino courtesy of the intensifying westerly wind burst over the Eastern Pacific which will enhance SSTs. But I cannot discount a very weak Nino by February as this Nino has proven to show weak footing in the Pacific. Generally speaking despite weak or moderate Nino status, this will favor an active east coast storm track.

Looking more in the teleconnection data the NAO will prove key in this winter. Generally this past Summer has featured a strong western based negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation).


Fig. 4.0- It is enticing seeing a return to a positive NAO to allow the cold air in the Arctic rebuilds. Typically in the fall a below normal temperature October with a positive NAO corresponds to a cold winter. This allows the cold air to build over the Arctic Circle.

And this quick rebuilding period under the generally dominated negative NAO this past year will not last too long. I have been for years one to believe in a NAO several year cycle. The past year seems to be an upswing in the absent western based negative NAO. Typically a negative NAO and weak to moderate El Nino produces an extremely snow winter. This allows the cold air to funnel down the east coast with the active subtropical jet. The phasing of the polar jet and subtropical jet produces some large Miller A type systems out of the Gulf of Mexico. Fluctuations in the NAO from positive to negative typically are a predecessor for a large coastal storm so a steady negative NAO is not what one should look for. A more neutral NAO is the most favorable for coastal storms. Some unusual SSTs near Green and the position of the Aleutian Low have possibly favored a more positive NAO this winter, but for now there is now definite evidence against a negative NAO dominating for much of the winter. The AO and PNA will also be interesting to watch this winter with regards to their effects on the continental US's weather.

I had a difficult time finding analogs this winter with a transition from a strong La Nina to a weak to moderate El Nino regime coupled with unusual GAAM, SOI, PDO, etc readings. A few matches prove semi-close for different parts of the spectrum. The Summer of 1969 and 1973 seem to be the closest matches to the Summer of 2009. They both featured Julys that were cooler than August along with mild Aprils followed by a cooler Summer. But the 1969-1970 season was on a two year El Nino regime, unlike us entering a Nino which sort of discounts it. Also 1973 Pacific variables just do not seem to match current 2009 August and September readings. I always exercise caution when regards to analog years as no two years are unlike and one cannot verbatim take the winter of 1969-1970 with seasonal snow totals and say that is the same snow totals we are going to see for 2009-2010. Many people make this foolish move. Other years of close ENSO patterns still show up with 2002-2003 with a weak to moderate El Nino. As mentioned earlier several indices are pretty similar to date.

Looking on the solar field, one again the sun is blank. No sunspots to be found and only a small flare was discovered the other day after nearly 60 days+ of non activity. Sunspots are dark regions on the Sun's surface that are associated with heightened solar activity hence a strong influx of heat. Without the sun there is no weather, so there has to be some sort of connection between sunspots and the troposphere weather zone. Despite criticism in the scientific community, I thoroughly believe that a reduction in solar activity does result in a global negative temperature by about -.2-.5. Despite this low temperature variance, a small temperature difference can make a large difference. I was doing some analyzing the other day of the stratosphere and coupled with some volcanic activity in the northern Hemisphere and low solar activity there will likely be some stratospheric warming which typically results in a larger and more widespread pool of arctic air in the winter. I do believe the low solar activity will result in some cooler than normal temperatures for parts of the globe this winter and we may have already seen some results in the past Summer with one of the coolest Summers on record for the continental US. Generally speaking the year 1998, the warmest year on record across the globe, since then temperatures have slowly fallen on average across the Earth. There is no global warming argument in my discussion, but more pointing at the impacts of the solar activity. Since then we have hit a relative minima in sunspots for a several year period corresponding to cooler temperatures by a slim margin since 1998. Many scientists agree low solar activity precluded the Little Ice Age. Despite your beliefs on the controversial subject of sunspots, we are once again entering a low sunspot activity year with a blank sun currently as of September 5.

Current global climate prediction models are also hinting at a colder winter than normal in the DJF time period with the CFS leading in the extreme predictions. Latest predictions are very inline with a typical El Nino pattern with warmer than normal temperatures from the Great Lakes on westward with cooler than normal temperatures from the southeast through the Middle Atlantic. Also I heard through grapevine that the ECMWF long range is particularly interesting in the winter time period with cooler than normal anomalies from once again the Ohio Valley on eastward. I do not give models to much credit due to several biases especially on the CFS that exist, though.

Lastly a bit a fun looking at folklore. Typically the good rules of thumb for a cold winter exist in nature around us and I think with the development of technology we have somewhat gone away from our past culture. In any case Pennsylvania Dutch traditions remain alive and well for forecasting the weather. This season shows completely black wooly caterpillars which supposedly by legend calls for a cold winter. Also acorns are plentiful this year with trees being quite full. Typically when leaves are full around the sides that is a predecessor for a mild winter. Also the latest Farmer’s Almanac prediction is out for a bitterly cold winter for much of the nation with above normal snowfall.

So here is my official forecast after the more scientific approach above. Reading between the lines you can see I am favoring a snowy winter with normal to slightly below normal temperatures. I think this winter will be very active in the storm track department causing an abundance of snow for the Middle Atlantic. As many know I am always excited about the weather, but my true excitement is only shown every now and then. This winter is the first winter I truly am enthused for the prospects of a snowy winter for the Middle Atlantic. Elsewhere across the United States I think a mild and dry winter is in store for the Great Lakes and western US with a snowy and below normal winter for the southeast. Here are some statistics looking more detailed into the winter for the Middle Atlantic...

Average monthly temperature anomalies region wide...
December- (+.2-.5)
January- (-.3-.4)
February- (-.5-.8)

Average monthly precipitation anomalies region wide...
December- +1.00inches
January- +0.75inches
February- +1.80inches

Average monthly snow total anomalies region wide...
December- -2inches
January- +1inch
February +4inches

Those above statistics take an approach looking at how the winter may pan out according to my forecast with a snowier and colder winter towards February. But still the beginning of winter should be near normal. Those predictions were taken on account of similar analog patterns and ENSO averages.

As we all know long range seasonal forecasts are extremely difficult and at times some may say relatively worthless. But I enjoy the challenge of looking at global patterns and throwing together some analogs to make prediction. Despite the outcome of any forecast, I enjoy the trial and error and value of learning from a mistake. It can only further our understanding of the world's atmosphere around us. I off course will open up this blog again March 1 and make a verification blog as I did this previous Summer. My Winter forecast of 2008-2009 was pretty close to accurate especially in the temperature department. Precipitation is typically a much more variable prediction, but this season I feel more confident on the snowfall forecast with seasonal to above normal snowfall than my temperature call. The difficult for snow predictions is it only takes one large KU storm to throw things out of proportion. I am excited about discussions this year we are going to have before storms and I still get a chuckle when looking back on the past two winters discussions such as our love for PENNDOT, lol. In any case this season will surely prove busy here in the blog especially now being a featured blog. Feel free anyone to always post their thoughts whether for or against another's predictions. Challenges make things interesting in the meteorological field. This current blog will be posted through the week and I hope with the current quiet weather pattern, that we can get some good winter prospects discussions. So get ready and strap in the roller coaster, it is going to be one wild ride!!!

For the final section, I thought it would be interesting to post some archived maps of major nor'easters of our past courtesy of Penn State Meteo. EWall...

12 February 1983...


7 January 1996...


14 March 1993...


17 February 2003...


"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2009-2010 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- T
Monthly Total- 0.00in
Seasonal Total- 70.10in
October Total- Trace
November Total- Trace
December Total- 16.0in
January Total- 2.1in
February Total- 52.00in
March Total- 0.00in
Winter Weather Advisories- 7
Winter Storm Warnings- 3
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 2
Winter Storm Watches- 4

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 18.8F
Lowest Low Temperature- 9.3F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Winter Storms Stats)
Dec 5 - 1.5in - First accumulating snow of season
Dec 8-9 - 2.5in - Snow changed to plain rain
Dec 13 - .1in - Freezing rain
Dec 19 - 9.0in - Heavy snow, higher amounts to south
Dec 31 - 3.0in - 2.5hr warm air advection event
Dec 31 #2 - .2in - Freezing rain/sleet later in day
Jan 8 - 1.5in - Light snow associated with clipper
Feb 2 - 3.75in - Weak coastal storm
Feb 5-7 - 19.0in - 10th largest snowstorm on record
Feb 9-10 - 20.5in - Blizzard conditions/snow depth up to 36in
Feb 15-16 - 1.25in - Light snow from clipper
Feb 25-26 - 5.25in - Wind blow/drifting cutoff low
Feb 28 - 1.0in - Wet snow

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132. originalLT
9:42 PM GMT on March 11, 2010
Shipweather, I think what you said is 100% right, very similar set-up but we're lacking cold air.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7413
131. originalLT
9:40 PM GMT on March 11, 2010
Thought there would be more activity and talk on the blog today, considering we all may get 3-5" of rain over the next 48-72 hours! I think we've been spoiled by the excitment of BIG snows this winter.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7413
130. shipweather
9:14 PM GMT on March 11, 2010
Flood watch for just about all of PA except for the north central counties. So we had a little lull and now a very complex system is going to come and destroy us with rain. Imagine if it was still cold....yikes. Is it just me or does this seem similar to a few of snow storms we had in terms of track and how it's setting up?
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
129. goofyrider
7:48 PM GMT on March 11, 2010


Hey LT

Hutch is tough in good weather add 20 mph winds and lots of rain drivers in a hurry and voila
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2726
128. zotty
7:14 PM GMT on March 11, 2010
Quoting originalLT:
Hi Zotty, I'll be coming down the Hutch. to NR. I hope the road is OK and they'll be no flooding, it sounds pretty bad for late Sat. --heavy rain and winds 30-40mph. with higher gusts.


The Hutch is so much better than it used to be, but down in the Bronx it can still paddle up pretty badly. You can always take I-95 to the Whitestone or Throgs Neck bridges if it is really bad...
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 729
127. originalLT
4:26 PM GMT on March 11, 2010
Hi Zotty, I'll be coming down the Hutch. to NR. I hope the road is OK and they'll be no flooding, it sounds pretty bad for late Sat. --heavy rain and winds 30-40mph. with higher gusts.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7413
126. zotty
4:17 PM GMT on March 11, 2010
thanks P451, appreciated!

LT- thanks as well- have a good time in New Ro and the island this weekend!
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 729
125. shipweather
5:59 AM GMT on March 11, 2010
Quoting Mason803:
24 hour flood guidance is very low with the south central mountains into adams county being the lowest.




There is still quite a bit of snow in the mountains around the border of Adams/Cumberland. I think that's going to create issues. While Blizz is right this could have been a major disaster, it could still be a serious problem around here.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
124. originalLT
2:17 AM GMT on March 11, 2010
Yeah, that BWI snowfall situation could be abit hairy!. By the way, I stumbled on to what may be an interesting site to check out, especially this Summer and Fall, its called, Tropicalweather.net. Its founded by Rich Johnson, formally of The Weather Channel. Check it out. Check out "The about us" part too.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7413
123. RkTec
1:46 AM GMT on March 11, 2010
Yes blizz. Sounds like a mess.

Here are stories about it:

Depth of two-day snowfall remains blanketed in mystery

" Worse, for climatologists, it now appears the weather service's rules for snow data had been ignored for years at BWI, throwing a cloud over the validity of snow totals as far back as 1998, when the FAA took the job over from the weather service.

Only BWI's data are known to be affected, but the problem could be more widespread. That possibility has caught the attention of top officials at the FAA."

No Snow Total for BWI
Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 384
122. Zachary Labe
1:22 AM GMT on March 11, 2010
Quoting RkTec:
I heard BWI's snowfall totals are being re-examined and tallied down due to the FAA incorrectly measuring.

Guess they were taking measurements every 1 hour and clearing the board, instead of every 6 hours.



Really, I am sure that will make people happy, ugh.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
121. RkTec
1:20 AM GMT on March 11, 2010
I heard BWI's snowfall totals are being re-examined and tallied down due to the FAA incorrectly measuring.

Guess they were taking measurements every 1 hour and clearing the board, instead of every 6 hours.


Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 384
120. originalLT
1:16 AM GMT on March 11, 2010
Hear in Stamford CT. we had slow increasing high cloudyness throughout the PM hours. Still reached 59F after a morning low of 29F. wind was very light and variable. Baro. 1016mb steady. Now it is 45F.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7413
119. Zachary Labe
10:47 PM GMT on March 10, 2010
In all reality this whole situation could have been much worst. One of the densest and deepest snow packs occurred this winter across the country and a rapid warmup accompanied by heavy rain could have spelled disaster.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
116. cchamp6
10:21 PM GMT on March 10, 2010
Blizz,

Very nice stretch of weather we just had. Today started out with a low of 22 degrees with a high of 59 degrees.

I noticed something this afternoon. We had a pitful snowfall year here in Northwest Ct. Yet with that being said. I still need 2 more days of warmth to melt the remaining snow in my yard. I guess we had more than I thought. I see the models are spitting out something like 4" of rain in area this weekend. Just perfect.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1639
115. Mason803
8:25 PM GMT on March 10, 2010
24 hour flood guidance is very low with the south central mountains into adams county being the lowest.


Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
114. RkTec
8:19 PM GMT on March 10, 2010
I'm 8 miles southwest of Allentown, PA at an elevation of 817 feet.

Still have a 6.0" snow pack up here. I took a core sample late this morning and melted it. The total water content came out to exactly 3.0" of liquid. I could walk on the snow without sinking at all, thats how much it has compacted. (Probably also explains why it is melting so slowly even amid 50-60 degree temps and sunshine)

My property has western exposure, the northern exposure areas on the mountain still have roughly 10.0" of snow pack.

Going to be an interesting weekend.

Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 384
113. originalLT
7:50 PM GMT on March 10, 2010
Hi Zotty, welcome back, hope you had a good trip. From what I hear, Friday and a good part of Sat. will be a real "soaker" with more "Showery weather " on Sunday. But Blizz or P451 can be more specific. I'm driving down to NR late Sat. afternoon then on to Long Island for a birthday party that evening.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7413
112. NEwxguy
7:41 PM GMT on March 10, 2010
If you live near a river,you will be on high alert this weekend,really looks like a lot of rain.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 874 Comments: 15595
111. zotty
7:39 PM GMT on March 10, 2010
Blizz or P451- I hate to ask you stuff like this, but your input is really appreciated. I am supposed to be playing in a platform tennis member guest tourney this weekend (in New Rochelle NY). Do you think it is going to be a soaker- rain all weekend with no let up, or one of those showers- then clouds- then showers type events when we should try to get it in? Thanks!
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 729
110. shipweather
5:06 PM GMT on March 10, 2010
wow, this is going to be some serious rain. There isn't much snow pack in Shippensburg, just some large piles left so I am not sure how much that will really add, but the ground is still pretty saturated. And in the mountains the snow is still pretty deep. I believe that will lead to some serious run off.

This event is going to lead to some serious flooding.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
108. Zachary Labe
11:33 AM GMT on March 10, 2010
Teby- Wonderful picture!


The mid level clouds have now moved in the for the extended period of unsettled weather. Rainfall totals for the 5-7 day period starting tomorrow should be a general 1-3in, with areas of minor to moderate flooding.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
107. Teby
3:06 AM GMT on March 10, 2010
Quoting Blizzard92:

I might be heading to Middle Creek Wildlife Center again to see the snowgeese this weekend. Picture from two years ago...

Blizz here's a picture of the snow geese at Middle Creek this past Sunday.Link
I tried to post the picture but it wouldn't show up so the link with have to do.
106. TheRasberryPatch
1:52 AM GMT on March 10, 2010
I hope if you go Blizz you bring back more pictures...

here is the latest report on middle creek

Link

Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
105. weathergeek5
12:43 AM GMT on March 10, 2010
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
you can tell Spring is coming....the geese are flocking in bigger groups and are higher up in the sky...also, I saw some snow geese flying around and a group of about 30 swans flying by. They must be heading north to mate and raise their young

High of 62F here...some golf courses are opening


Yesterday morning I saw flocks of geese flying in perfect formation. It was a nice sight to see.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
104. synthman19872003
12:43 AM GMT on March 10, 2010
Low 70Fs here today! Wore shorts for the first time this year!
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 4045
103. Zachary Labe
12:41 AM GMT on March 10, 2010
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
you can tell Spring is coming....the geese are flocking in bigger groups and are higher up in the sky...also, I saw some snow geese flying around and a group of about 30 swans flying by. They must be heading north to mate and raise their young

High of 62F here...some golf courses are opening

I might be heading to Middle Creek Wildlife Center again to see the snowgeese this weekend. Picture from two years ago...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
102. Hoynieva
12:21 AM GMT on March 10, 2010
Two days in a row we've surpassed 60 degrees here in the city :) It's been sunny and beautiful, as you all can attest. One more nice day tomorrow before the excrement hits the air conditioner. Don't get me wrong, i love T-storms, but this looks like a lot of soaking rain over many days...after tomorrow no Sun until possibly next Tuesday :(
At least we got this beautiful Spring like week to remind us that it's almost here...
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
101. TheF1Man
11:56 PM GMT on March 09, 2010
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
you can tell Spring is coming....the geese are flocking in bigger groups and are higher up in the sky...also, I saw some snow geese flying around and a group of about 30 swans flying by. They must be heading north to mate and raise their young

High of 62F here...some golf courses are opening


i like the sound of that! Golf!
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
you can tell Spring is coming....the geese are flocking in bigger groups and are higher up in the sky...also, I saw some snow geese flying around and a group of about 30 swans flying by. They must be heading north to mate and raise their young

High of 62F here...some golf courses are opening
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6248
Quoting PalmyraPunishment:
What a nice day to lull this epic winter softly to sleep until later on in the year.

So when's the thunderstorms coming? lol.


My sentiments as well.
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What a nice day to lull this epic winter softly to sleep until later on in the year.

So when's the thunderstorms coming? lol.
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Quoting Rhodyguy:
Can anyone help, whats the chance of a snow event this weekend in central VT? Taking the family skiing on a trip that has been planned for 6 months. Hate the thought of sking in the rain.... Forecast seems to be wavering between rain and snow. Need a scenerio that gives us frozen precip in the mountains to hope for!


I'm heading up to Stowe VT this weekend. Looks like rain. Mostly rain for higher elevations as well, maybe some snowflakes mixed in.

Mostly light rain Friday night. May catch a break on Saturday as dry slot may set up in Vermont, especially northwest sections, but not garaunteed. Moderate - heavy rain possible Saturday night into Sunday morning. Best chance of seeing it mix and/or turn over to light snow higher elevations would be starting Sunday night, and lower elevations Monday afternoon through early next week, if at all, and if precip hangs on that long.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Oh if this were to be snow coming up. Oh well, get out your canoes.
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While it won't be raining all the time, the GFS keeps the easterly wind anomaly associated with damp conditions through next Wednesday. Enjoy today!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087
Just checking up on all you snow lovers to make sure you're not going through withdrawals and are surviving the warmer temps and SUNSHINE. I see everyone is doing just fine.

The three big stories here are the weather (it's been gorgeous), the weather (it's about to rain and maybe flood the rivers), and Big Ben, our Pro Bowl knucklehead who just can't seem to stay out of his own way. Oh and let's not forget those car eating potholes. They are out there to chew up your wheels and mess with your suspension.

Expecting thunder on Friday. I love a good thunderstorm. Of note, I will be at our clinic in McKeesport on Friday which is in the Monongahela (the "Mon") Valley and right on the river bank. Should be an interesting commute.
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In the meantime, a tornado was supposedly reported today. This finally ends the tornado drought, as not a single tornado formed in February, which I believe is the 5th month since 1950 where a tornado hasn't been reported. Last tornado was on January 24.

Bliz, do you think next season we'll go back to praying for at least slush?
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Can anyone help, whats the chance of a snow event this weekend in central VT? Taking the family skiing on a trip that has been planned for 6 months. Hate the thought of sking in the rain.... Forecast seems to be wavering between rain and snow. Need a scenerio that gives us frozen precip in the mountains to hope for!
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Quoting P451:
We're ready. Bring it on. Let's talk squall lines and tropical storms.

That's what I'm talking about! =)
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 4045
Link for last 90 days see also precip departures for ny/pa/nj ditto P451 and Heavy Snow nb

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/marfc/Maps/basin_departure/MIDDLE_ATL90day.png
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2726
Upper 60Fs to near 70F in the Triad this afternoon. Went walking outside earlier and it was nice to enjoy nature without a jacket, actually broke a little sweat! :)
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 4045
60's in PA today!!

3pm obs

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BRADFORD SUNNY 44 20 38 NW12 29.95F
DUBOIS SUNNY 44 23 43 W13 29.97F
CLEARFIELD SUNNY 49 22 34 W8 29.97F
JOHNSTOWN SUNNY 42 20 41 NW9 29.97F
ALTOONA SUNNY 48 17 29 NW12 29.98F
STATE COLLEGE SUNNY 52 25 35 W14 29.95S
WILLIAMSPORT MOSUNNY 62 26 25 W14G22 29.88F
SELINSGROVE SUNNY 60 25 26 W9G17 29.90F
HARRISBURG SUNNY 58 23 26 W10 29.91F
YORK SUNNY 57 20 23 W13G18 29.94F
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
Just beautiful here in Stamford CT. Sunny, 57.5F, wind mostly west, (although at this moment showing ENE), 5-10mph. Barometer, 1010mb and falling slowly. Wind now back to W.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7413
All mannnn. Looks like the wife and I will be driving in the rain Friday night to Albany NY, and all rain from there to Stowe VT on Saturday. Rain in Stowe through Tuesday. 2 days ago it was looking like snow once you hit Vermont.

Poop...

It's alright, I'll get happy once I'm swimming in Ben & Jerry's Ice Cream and loading up on some Vermont cheese and maple syrup!

A nice New England snowstorm to go along with it would've been incredulous.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
Heavy long duration rain event headed towards the region. With high FFG, flooding is possible. Model guidance is also impressive with GFS noting 6in QPF (convective feedback issue) and the ECMWF around 2.25in QPF. I will have more throughout the week. For now enjoy the near 60F temperature today for many areas downwind of the Appalachians.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15087

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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