Feb 24-27 blizzard threat across Northern Middle Atlantic...

By: Zachary Labe , 9:21 PM GMT on February 23, 2010

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A vigorous northern stream low pressure will develop along the baroclinic zone near the eastern seaboard allowing for bombogenesis. Eventually the cutoff low will retrograde northwest over New England allowing for an anomalously tight pressure gradient. Therefore these ingredients give way towards a threat of a significant blizzard over the Northern Middle Atlantic with the threat lasting for several days. Guidance remains uncertain on the western sharp-cutoff but things should be becoming more clear closer to the event.

Thoughts on February 24-27 Snowstorm...
COMING SOON!!!

Radar...
Radar...

Warnings...
Warnings...

NAO...
NAO...

This is my current rain/snow line...
COMING SOON!!!

Storm Reports...
COMING WHEN PRECIPITATION COMMENCES!!!

Storm Impacts...
1. Tight pressure gradient in accompaniment with close proximity of the low pressure, polar vortex, and high pressure will allow for high winds with gusts over 50mph.
2. Blowing and drifting snow will allow for deteoriating conditions across the entire region starting late Wednesday night.
3. A sharp cutoff courtesy of a northwest flow of dry air will exist over central Pennsylvania and west-central Maryland allowing for a bit of uncertainty in regards to snow totals.
4. Falling temperatures will allow for dangerous windchills below 15F increasing the threat for frostbite and hypothermia.
5. Finally this storm looks to be the most dangerous out of the series of historical east coast storms this winter. Stay tuned for further updates.

Snow Map...
COMING SOON!!!

Selected City Accumulations for the Northeast...
COMING SOON!!!
Hagerstown, MD-
Baltimore, MD-
Salisbury, MD-
Washington, DC-
Wilmington, DE-
Dover, DE-
Trenton, NJ-
New York City, NY-
Poughkeepsie, NY-
Binghamton, NY-
Albany, NY-
Hartford, CT-
Concord, NH-
Providence, RI-
Worcester, MA-
Boston, MA-
Nantucket, MA-
Hyannis, MA-
Portland, ME-
Bangor, ME-
"Subject to Change"

Model Analysis


After the storm...
COMING SOON!!!

Please post storm reports in this blog from across the Northeast during the winter storm and please post location of observation in each report...

This blog is in progress. Check back soon...

Please take an opportunity to vote in the new poll!

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2009-2010 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 0-6in; drifts near 12in
Monthly Total- 52.00in
Seasonal Total- 70.05in
October Total- 0.0in
November Total- Trace
December Total- 16.0in
January Total- 2.1in
February Total- 52.00in
Winter Weather Advisories- 6
Winter Storm Warnings- 3
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 2
Winter Storm Watches- 4

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 18.8F
Lowest Low Temperature- 9.3F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Winter Storms Stats)
Dec 5 - 1.5in - First accumulating snow of season
Dec 8-9 - 2.5in - Snow changed to plain rain
Dec 13 - .1in - Freezing rain
Dec 19 - 9.0in - Heavy snow, higher amounts to south
Dec 31 - 3.0in - 2.5hr warm air advection event
Dec 31 #2 - .2in - Freezing rain/sleet later in day
Jan 8 - 1.5in - Light snow associated with clipper
Feb 2 - 3.75in - Weak coastal storm
Feb 5-7 - 19.0in - 10th largest snowstorm on record
Feb 9-10 - 20.5in - Blizzard conditions/snow depth up to 36in
Feb 15-16 - 1.25in - Light snow from clipper
Feb 25-26 - 5.25in - Wind blow/drifting cutoff low
Feb 28 - 1.0in - Wet snow

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

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1136. pittsburghnurse
1:11 AM GMT on March 01, 2010
So Sidney Crosby is truly a golden boy now. Of course my loyalty was to team USA but since Sid is one of Pittsburgh's own, the future for the Penguins looks bright. Would love to see them play the Caps in a winter classic right here in the Burgh.

Blizz, that mere handful of snow days being all that's left of winter is truly music to my frosty ears.

Member Since: October 14, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 639
1135. originalLT
12:59 AM GMT on March 01, 2010
Thanks Blizz!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7713
1134. PhillySnow
12:52 AM GMT on March 01, 2010
Sunny here today, with a couple of sweet little snow flurry showers.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
1133. johnbluedog69
12:09 AM GMT on March 01, 2010
Quoting Blizzard92:
*New blog and poll out within the next hour.

WooHoo!
Member Since: October 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 437
1132. Zachary Labe
11:53 PM GMT on February 28, 2010
*New blog and poll out within the next hour.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
1131. TheRasberryPatch
11:29 PM GMT on February 28, 2010
snow showers on and off today....a lot of snow melt also.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
1130. billc124
11:27 PM GMT on February 28, 2010
Quoting MarylandGirl:
We would rather the gold but what a wonder showing for this team, played hard and well. Congrats to USA, #2 in the world!

Now on to weather!


Agreed. My Meteorologist friend says no snow north of DC with this midweek storm as it heads out to see too far south of us. Sorry to disappoint anyone wishing for snow.
Member Since: February 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
1129. MarylandGirl
11:22 PM GMT on February 28, 2010
We would rather the gold but what a wonder showing for this team, played hard and well. Congrats to USA, #2 in the world!

Now on to weather!
Member Since: September 10, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 486
1128. billc124
11:13 PM GMT on February 28, 2010
Quoting PhillySnow:
Wow - where is everyone? Out enjoying the warm weather? :)


Watching Team USA win the Silver of course.
Member Since: February 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
1127. Zachary Labe
10:52 PM GMT on February 28, 2010
Quoting PhillySnow:
Wow - where is everyone? Out enjoying the warm weather? :)

Eh been a terrible day here steady in the mid 30s with constant heavy snow/rain squalls all day, ugh.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
1126. PhillySnow
10:47 PM GMT on February 28, 2010
Wow - where is everyone? Out enjoying the warm weather? :)
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
1125. P451
4:40 PM GMT on February 28, 2010
NAM:



GFS:



SREF: (Which has that little northward bend, and it accurately predicted that the storm before the last one would do so [feb 10?], so you can't discount this possibility)



NCEP: (discount the inland tracks, those are picking up on a March 9th low, the heavy thick clustered tracks sweeping out to sea are the next system)

Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
1124. weathergeek5
3:58 PM GMT on February 28, 2010
This week was supposed to be spring break but with all this snow I have to make up a few classes this week.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
1123. OceanEffect2010
3:24 PM GMT on February 28, 2010
12z NAM and 00z NOGAPS are the furthest southwest with the Monday low. Very impressive storm system right now south of Nova Scotia. Very dynamic storm system. 00z NOGAPS shows 12"+ for Cape Cod, MA. It is the only real bullish model on QPF.
1122. HeavySnow
3:15 PM GMT on February 28, 2010
It WILL come to DC!
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
1121. Zachary Labe
2:29 PM GMT on February 28, 2010
I look outside at a moderate burst of snow with a fresh inch of snow on the ground and try to remind myself there are probably less than one handful of days where snow will fall left in this historic winter. The inch of snow this morning helped me to break 70in with a 70.05in seasonal total.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
1120. doom22015
1:58 PM GMT on February 28, 2010
Quoting P451:
Looking at QPF I wouldn't expect much for any of us.

Light green = .01 to .1
Medium green = .1 to .25

Not very impressive.




NAM and GFS both showing a trace to an inch for NJ, most of PA. With some higher amounts in western PA stretching back down into WV.

That's it though.

System is going to be too far off shore.


P451,
I'm hoping that that storm will bend like a frisbee and hit me here in DC. Sounds like you're not eager for another big one, but we got pretty much zilch from the last storm and we've got altogether too much lawn starting to show here.
Member Since: February 12, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 222
1119. buggyinitscripts
1:55 PM GMT on February 28, 2010
Quoting buggyinitscripts:
Lester Moyer predicts a 42 inch March 4th (or 7th?) snowstorm.Link

I originally heard about him in the Morning Call. Not that I believe a farmers-almanac-type of prediction.
Link

What's with the quoting when I modify my comments?
1118. buggyinitscripts
1:53 PM GMT on February 28, 2010
Lester Moyer predicts a 42 inch March 4 snowstorm.Link

I originally heard about him in the Morning Call. Not that I believe a farmers-almanac-type of prediction.
1117. P451
1:04 PM GMT on February 28, 2010


And heading NE out to sea quickly.


6-10 Day looks below normal temps and precip.
8-14 Day looks below normal temps and normal precip.

So, it's looking quiet for a bit here. Not really going to complain after everything we got so far this year. I'm probably around 95 inches for the season give or take poor measurements.

Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
1116. P451
1:01 PM GMT on February 28, 2010
Looking at QPF I wouldn't expect much for any of us.

Light green = .01 to .1
Medium green = .1 to .25

Not very impressive.




NAM and GFS both showing a trace to an inch for NJ, most of PA. With some higher amounts in western PA stretching back down into WV.

That's it though.

System is going to be too far off shore.
Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
1115. P451
12:57 PM GMT on February 28, 2010
Just some light fine flurries here in NJ this AM. Yesterday we had a nice little coating in the AM.

Seems the system is finally winding down.

Looking ahead I think this next system is going to be too warm to amount to much for me at the coast.

Tue-Rain 45
Tue Night - Rain/Snow 32
Wed - Rain 40
Wed Night - Snow 27



Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
1114. TheRasberryPatch
12:30 PM GMT on February 28, 2010
A light dusting on the ground this morning. I know its not even close to an inch...Blizz as usual you were right
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
1113. Zachary Labe
12:27 PM GMT on February 28, 2010
Thanks all for the comments!

Winter wonderland here this morning with what looks to be a fresh 1.0in of very wet snow on most all surfaces. I have not officially measured yet. Light snow continues to fall.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
1112. PhillySnow
11:58 AM GMT on February 28, 2010
Quoting originalLT:
Blizz, whatever you can give us, we all appreciate. I know high school can be very hectic junior year.


I totally agree. I'll add that my son has a blog he maintains, and I know just how time consuming it can be. It's great that you want to contribute to everyone here, and school always comes first in my opinion.

This blog functions well as a community and others also contribute their knowledge, which can take the pressure off a bit. Thank you for running a really great weather blog!
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
1111. OceanEffect2010
6:27 AM GMT on February 28, 2010
Thanks Blizzard.
1110. originalLT
3:17 AM GMT on February 28, 2010
Blizz, whatever you can give us, we all appreciate. I know high school can be very hectic junior year. We went through it with our two children not too many years ago. But they both did well, my son getting into Emory University and graduating with a double major, economics and philosophy, and my daughter at Dickinson College, not too far from you! She now is a high school english teacher. She's 24 and looks like a high school student herself, she's in her third year. I've influenced both my kids in weather, She's good with radar interpretation and everyone asks her at school if and when its going to snow! She checks the radar everyday and asks me what's going to happen. Of course I get my info from your blog and Sullivan weather, so I lookk good most of the time!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7713
1109. TheRasberryPatch
3:02 AM GMT on February 28, 2010
35.5F
dewpt 25.4F

nah....snow won't stick...hahahaha....age over rules here Blizz
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
1108. Zachary Labe
1:56 AM GMT on February 28, 2010
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
it's going to be tough with the snow making any type of dent...with the temp @36F

looking forward to an updated blog

Wetbulb temperatures will allow for below freezing temperatures should snow fall later tonight early tomorrow morning.

OceanEffect2010- Eh, really have not even looked at the models in that regard, sort of took the day off for watching, hahaha. I will try to post something about it tomorrow for you.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
1107. TheRasberryPatch
1:48 AM GMT on February 28, 2010
it's going to be tough with the snow making any type of dent...with the temp @36F

looking forward to an updated blog
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
1106. OceanEffect2010
1:01 AM GMT on February 28, 2010
12z short range NMM model has the Monday storm deepening to 958mb.
1105. PhillySnow
12:44 AM GMT on February 28, 2010
Quoting Blizzard92:
*By the way this week looks a bit more relaxed for my schedule so plentiful blog updates this week including a new weekly weather blog tomorrow and possibly a special feature blog midweek!


Good to hear! Fun to read the analyses about this next storm, and I actually need to know this time because I'll need to change a plane flight if Wednesday morning won't work.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
1104. OceanEffect2010
12:10 AM GMT on February 28, 2010
Blizzard, thoughts on the Monday storm?
1103. Zachary Labe
11:27 PM GMT on February 27, 2010
*High resolution mesoscale guidance indicates a strong embedded shortwave moving through the region from the Susquehanna River Valley on eastward in Pennsylvania causing about .01-.07in QPF with snow showers. A fresh coating to 1.5in is possible in this region towards early Sunday morning; just something to beware of. By the way this week looks a bit more relaxed for my schedule so plentiful blog updates this week including a new weekly weather blog tomorrow and possibly a special feature blog midweek!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
1102. OceanEffect2010
11:26 PM GMT on February 27, 2010
GFS tends to underdo the strength of the central low pressure of the system. So judging by its latest 18z run would be sub 970mb. Strong winds and intense snowfall rates could develop if the storm intensifies more quickly then modeled right now.
1101. P451
9:53 PM GMT on February 27, 2010
Quoting originalLT:
P451, I hardly had any wind. Sulli said that was because I was too close to the center. Very interesting storm though.


Sounds right.

At the peak I was 30 sustained gusting to 50.

Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
1100. wxgeek723
9:51 PM GMT on February 27, 2010
1100th comment!

Bliz, are you at a record pace for snowfall this month? And are you gonna miss this season next year? Lol
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3631
1099. originalLT
9:17 PM GMT on February 27, 2010
P451, I hardly had any wind. Sulli said that was because I was too close to the center. Very interesting storm though.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7713
1098. P451
8:38 PM GMT on February 27, 2010
Quoting originalLT:
Nice pics. P451, but the snow doesn't look like quite as big as one of the other storms you had. But alot more than my 11" fall.


Yeah. We had the 5-6" in the morning and most of that had melted or compacted. Then we had about 8-10" overnight but it was windblown all over the place.

It just didn't add up to the other systems.

A lot melted today. I'm around 6" average base right now. A couple of 20" drifts and a couple of spots just about 2" or so.

And now everyone local around here as saying Tuesday starts as rain and changes to snow and snows Tuesday night and Wednesday.

A little early to think about that one. Sometime tomorrow afternoon.

GFS barely covers the start of the event and it's got me up to 2 inches with that. NAM doesn't even reach the event yet.

Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
1097. originalLT
7:36 PM GMT on February 27, 2010
Nice pics. P451, but the snow doesn't look like quite as big as one of the other storms you had. But alot more than my 11" fall.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7713
1096. P451
7:08 PM GMT on February 27, 2010
Great day outside. Hit 42 degrees. Had a few snow showers on and off. Sun in and out.

Did some final cleanup. Ready for the next one.

Well I'll be, I found the sewer! And then got on a roll and cleared the curb. Good workout.





Piles are head high.

Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
1095. Zachary Labe
6:17 PM GMT on February 27, 2010
Another .25in of snow from last night for a storm total of 5.25in.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
1094. tinkahbell
5:44 PM GMT on February 27, 2010
Mother Nature is really pissed. Two major earthquakes in the past 24 hours.
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 249
1093. SilverShipsofAndilar
5:00 PM GMT on February 27, 2010
8.8 magnitude earthquake in Chile, 16-foot high tsunami predicted for Hawaii, tsunami warning up the entire Pacific Coast. This is nuts.
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
1092. HeavySnow
4:19 PM GMT on February 27, 2010
You never know Mdgirl. The timing this far out, maybe you will get out. If it's a normal winter, no problem, that model is a liar. This winter...
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
1091. MarylandGirl
3:59 PM GMT on February 27, 2010
WSC have not counted $$ but have a few dollars hanging there! Do enjoy!
Member Since: September 10, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 486
1090. wscdive
3:51 PM GMT on February 27, 2010
Great Pizza! ever count the money hanging in there? Son deploys next week, once he is gone we may run back down. We camp and kayak fish.. have january next year already booked, as soon as feb is reservable we will work on it..(state parks reserve 11 months out)
1089. MarylandGirl
3:46 PM GMT on February 27, 2010
Philly we fly out Wed am also....except Heavy thinks we won't be able to.......;(
Member Since: September 10, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 486
1088. MarylandGirl
3:45 PM GMT on February 27, 2010
We stay with friends on Big Pine Key, lovely house! They rent for 4 months......we get a week. 1/2 from No Name Pub
Member Since: September 10, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 486
1087. wscdive
3:38 PM GMT on February 27, 2010
Quoting MarylandGirl:
OK, I'll tell him more wine and some cheese and crackers! We spend that much time and I'll be depressed......want to get to keys.

Where in the keys md? Wife and i camped there for the month of jan, came back to pa just in time for the storms Was 82 the day we left, two days later I was shoveling 2 feet of snow!! we were 2 weeks in long key and 2 weeks in bahia honda. We were supposed to be there for feb too but son is deploying with the ng so we had to come home early
1086. stillwaiting
2:56 PM GMT on February 27, 2010
got 25" in ossining at grandmas and 15" at ny friends house in bellrose queens,forecast for home(FL)......partly cloudy 65(returning home tomorrow)what a wonderful storm chase!!!!!!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

About Personal Weather Stations