Blizzard situation potentially unfolding over the Northern Middle Atlantic...

By: Zachary Labe , 2:03 AM GMT on February 14, 2010

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A northern stream shortwave will rotate through the 500mb charts in the form of an enhanced clipper in the Monday-Tuesday time frame, which will redevelop near the coastal front enhancing moisture/precipitation from West Virginia to Maine. A moderate snow axis is likely to develop slightly north of the track. Sunshine prevails much of the rest of the week before wavelengths favor another increasing chance of cyclogenesis in the 7-8 day time frame towards next Sunday.

"Afternoon Thoughts" (Updated 2/13)
Navigating through south-central Pennsylvania is a daunting task and one that takes you through perhaps a northern New England winter instead of the Middle Atlantic. Drifting snow is more of the common place instead of a brown horizon line along the southern edge of the Appalachians. Perhaps it is more reminiscent of a Norman Rockwell winter scene than typical winters. With children sledding down hills at every corner and snow mounds continue to grow, it appears finally our wishes of a snowy winter have laid their mark here in the Middle Atlantic. Considering snow depths near 40in on the north side of the Blue Mountain here in Harrisburg, it is likely that will not melt for a few more weeks as the region remains under the threat for more snowfall and colder temperatures. I suppose this is what it is likely every winter for those along the Great Lakes where powdery snow drifts from day to day higher and higher and some roads just never seem to see asphalt for days on end. Driving around the mountain valleys north of Harrisburg reminds me of a trip up towards Potter and Tioga Counties of Pennsylvania where deep snow cover was persistent especially on the north side of mountains where there is little sunshine. My statistics already have this month being the snowiest ever on record for Harrisburg surpassing January of 1996, but KMDT is a few inches behind which will likely occur Monday night. This will likely make February 2010 the snowiest month ever on record in the Harrisburg area with records dating back to 1888. The snowier than normal winter was an obvious call back in the fall as a record low negative AO below -4 in correlation with a moderate to strong El Nino is a recipe for a wintry forecast for the eastern seaboard. As for what this all equates for in summer is still up in the air for now and pure speculation, but something to monitor. For those interested in a climatology perspective on snowy winters and the preceding summer, take an interesting read in "The Pennsylvania Weather Book" by Ben Gelber. Anyways for those of us in the Northern Middle Atlantic enjoy this unusual amount of snow and ignore those New Englanders who are finally getting a taste of what it is like here in the Middle Atlantic, hahaha. Have a wonderful day!!!

"Current Surface Plot"

(Courtesy of HPC)

"Regional Radar"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"Regional Advisories"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Forecast Discussion"(Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware)(Updated 2/14)
COMING SOON!!!

"Regional Satellite"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Current Water Vapor Loop"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"7-Day Zonal Forecast Outlooks"(Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware)(Updated 2/14)
COMING SOON!!!

"Current River Ice Reports and Ski Conditions" (Updated 2/13)
Excellent ski conditions are occurring statewide in Pennsylvania favoring areas south of interstate 80. In fact many would argue these are the best conditions since January of 1996. Heavy snow has wreaked havoc for transportation and travel concerns, but it has certainly helped the skiing industry especially with the renewed interest in winter sports courtesy of the Winter Olympics 2010. The Laurel Highlands have been basking in plentiful snowfall with Seven Springs reporting now over 140in of natural snowfall for the 2009-2010 winter season with over 55in of natural snow in the past seven days. Several natural snow trails have recently been opened. Blue Knob Ski Area is also nosing over the century mark for seasonal snowfall coming in a hair lower at just over 90in of snow. Four Seasons Hidden Valley in the Laurel Highlands is also reporting excellent conditions with over 50in of natural snow in the past seven days. With below normal temperatures under a northwest cyclonic flow, conditions could not get any better with little snow melt courtesy of dense cloud cover from upsloping over the Laurel Highlands. Although partially frozen Lake Erie is limiting lake effect snow down to nuisance amounts with orographic lift aiding in an additional 3-5in of snow across the Laurel Highlands Saturday night. As subsidence inversion levels lower, the light snow shower activity will begin to subside towards Sunday morning with clearing skies for the entire state of Pennsylvania. Across the south-central Mountains skiing conditions are the best in over a decade at least with Ski Whitetail picking up nearly 50in of natural snow at the summit this month. Ski Roundtop and Ski Liberty have also picked up nearly 40in of natural snow with all resorts at 100% operating conditions. No new snowfall is expected through Monday morning. Across the Poconos and north central mountains conditions have been excellent, but fresh natural snow has not been as heavy as the southern half of the state. Ski Sawmill recently picked up 10in of snow from the past storm with areas towards Blue Mountain Ski Area up through the Poconos receiving around a foot of snow or so with a bit more in some areas towards 2ft. So generally for now the best conditions appear to be at Ski Whitetail and Seven Springs down through Wisp, Maryland near Deep Creek where snowfall for the season is well over 100in. Snow chances remain optimum for the week ahead with a synoptic moderate snow accumulation likely for the entire region especially north of the Mason-Dixon line. Also a bit of lake effect snow is likely throughout the week as multiple embedded vortices move through the northeast allowing for light 1-3in snows possible several times this week for the Laurel Highlands. Finally towards the weekend another synoptic precipitation event is aimed at the region, but confidence remains low at this point.

Widespread frazil ice pans remain across local main stem rivers in the northern Middle Atlantic with recent surveys suggesting widespread coverage of moving ice pans across the Susquehanna River Basin. Also the Delaware River is reporting several areas of widespread ice coverage and this may increase in the coming days as the region remains under the gun for more snowfall. Local ponds and lakes have widespread ice coverage but thicknesses vary across the region depending on depth and other factors. Best advice to those ice fishing and ice skating is to check with local authorities for safe ice thickness levels on local ponds. With below normal temperatures expected in the next seven days, ice thicknesses will likely be on the increase with a statewide snow cover.

-Link to official reports page from NWS... Link.
-Link to local ski resort snow conditions... Link.

"Current Northeast Snow Depth and Northeast Wind chills"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"Lake Effect Snow Conditions" (Updated 2/13)
With the entire northern Middle Atlantic encased in a rare region wide snowpack; many of the lake effect snow belts will be satisfied in a dwindling threat of lake effect for the upcoming last few weeks of winter. A majority of the southeast bank of Lake Erie is ice covered with SSTs generally below 31F for those with open channels. A bit more open water remains on the north end of the lake along with widespread open channels for Lake Huron. This Huron-Erie connections favors lake effect snow for the Laurel Highlands, but nothing overly significant. A 315degree northwest flow will allow for a bit of light snow courtesy of orographic lift along the leeward sides of the Laurel Highlands ridge tops. Light snow shower visibility around MVRF to IFR will favor visibilities generally at 1mi or above therefore limiting accumulations to western facing slopes above 1900ft with accumulations in that region generally 3-5in for Saturday night. Lowering subsidence inversion heights will allow for clearing skies towards Sunday with no additional snow accumulation. Little to no accumulation is likely Saturday night for the northwest snow belts. High pressure and weak ridging aloft will allow for a dominate westerly flow with sunshine through Monday before clouds increase with a threat of synoptic snow. Towards Tuesday a cyclonic flow regime will induce across the entire northern Middle Atlantic. But with limited moisture from the Great Lakes, lake effect snow accumulations will be kept in check for the Tuesday-Thursday time frame not exceeding advisory levels during any point. Omega values remain low throughout the week along with a slightly displaced dendritic growth layer keeping ratios around 15:1. GFS/NAM QPF means suggest around .3-.4in for the snow belts by the week's end from lake effect snow and upslope enhanced. Accumulations will favor towards the Laurel Highlands into western Maryland in Garret County towards Frostburg, MD under a 300degree flow. Up to 8in of total snowfall is likely towards Mt. Davis and Laurel Summit in Somerset County, Pennsylvania above 2850ft. Valley snow accumulations through the week in the Laurels will generally be less than 4in. Downsloping winds will limit the snow shower extent quickly eliminating snow bands east of the Altoona-State College-Lock Haven line. Snow accumulation across northwestern Pennsylvania will be totaled around 2-4in by the week’s end favoring Clearfield County. Little to no pure lake effect snow is likely for northeastern Pennsylvania which such a westerly flow, but a deformation band from the coastal low will allow for some synoptical precipitation. Weak ridging aloft and high pressure move across the region towards the week’s end allowing for region wide sunshine through Saturday with below normal temperatures.

"Current Lake Erie Wind Direction and Speed"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Current Lake Erie Water Temperature"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Long Term Outlook" (Updated 2/13)
With the GFS operation and ensembles continuing to indicate a solid phase 8 MJO, it appears troughing will dominate the eastern seaboard. Coupled with an anomalous negative AO below -4, which continues the record stretch, the active southern stream courtesy of the moderate El Nino will allow for an above normal chance of another significant coastal storm along the eastern seaboard. Wavelengths and global ensembles continue to indicate a threat in the day 7-8 time frame around the 21st of February. 2/13 12utc ECMWF run indicates a low pressure undergoing cyclogenesis near the Delmarva with a surface pressure well below 990mb. With prognostics coinciding the negative NAO regime and positive PNA regime it is likely for a coastal influence. While the ECMWF highlights this as a significant threat, the GFS maintains a conservative approach with a more meridian jet stream flow with a flat west to east traversing shortwave. In any case I am highlighting the period from the 20th-22nd of February as a potential significant east coast storm threat date. Again being 7-8 days away I will highlight very few details, but I will mention cyclogenesis towards the eastern seaboard has an above normal potential. Looking at the general winter theme it would suggest the Middle Atlantic features the brunt of this system, but in this time frame the 50/50 low, while still quite favorable, is it a bit weaker and therefore will probably allow the low pressure to spread the wealth a bit more, but that is considering the low pressure even forms. Looking towards the last two weeks of the month, it appears colder than normal temperatures will dominate the weather for much of the weather east of the Mississippi with normal to above normal precipitation. The GFS tries to introduce Pacific modified air towards the end of the month, but I believe it is a bit too quick in doing so. In any case stay tuned throughout the week on the threat towards next weekend!

"Current NAO and PNA Predictions"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Anchorage, Alaska Tower Cam"

*Note I am only posting this tower cam until snow starts falling over the northern Middle Atlantic, lol. For now we can all be jealous of the Alaskan snow.

"Monthly Outlook" (March)
February sure has been a memorable month for those with concerns across the viewing region. In fact century old records have been broken for many large cities and towns across the northern Middle Atlantic with even snowfall being recorded on the ground in at least 49 states during the February 12-13 period, which many climatologists are hard pressed to find any other date with such widespread snow cover. The NCDC reports nearly 68% of the nation snow covered as of February 13th with an eight inch average depth. With temperature anomalies also well below -2SD for much of the United States, this has certainly been a February of wintry notation. While the month is generally about 1/2 over and an end to the meteorological winter is quickly approaching, more wintry precipitation will likely continue for the eastern seaboard. For more details for the last two weeks of the month consult the long term disco above. As for a February forecast, due to time constraints unfortunately I was unable to post one. But on second glance of my winter forecast, it clearly advertised February being a very snowy and cold month in fact the snowiest of the winter. Despite what the final two weeks of the month show, these statistics have already been verified. Soon or perhaps now many will be basking in the threat of spring-like weather which is not too far off. It is evident based on teleconnections the worst is over as far as arctic air and climatology means. For those interested in my winter outlook verification blog, it will be issued upon the first week of March as the meteorological winter comes to a close. Now as we look towards March teleconnections diverge... Global models including the GFS/ECMWF begin to lose direct correspondence in forecast similarities after the 10 day time frame. ECMWF weeklies continue to advertise anomalous blocking as we continue in this record -4 AO with troughing over the east coast. But the GFS highlights a zonal flow with Pacific air flooding the nation with cold air bottling up towards Canada. What is interesting this year has been the lack of arctic. Due to the polar vortex being displaced a bit too far north, we have been close to record cold air, but it is just a bit too far displaced. In any case this looks to continue. As common with El Ninos, an active southern stream will continue. But current Nino 3.4 region SSTs indicate a general cooling regime with weakening into low end moderate stage. MJO on the other hand using GEFS supports more of an ECMWF solution. Using a few analogs up my sleeve, climatology, and teleconnections I support a mean forecast of the following for the month of March...

Temperature- I look entitled to enter a pretty typical temperature anomaly forecast for the month averaging from (-0.5)-(+0.5) F across the entire northern Middle Atlantic. This being said I favor guidance for a cooler pattern for the first week or two of the month with temperatures around -5F averages each day; nothing overly cold. Then I believe the pattern radically swings around midmonth or potentially earlier to a much warmer flow as we pardon goodbye to a historic winter. In fact the pattern change is critical for timing as it appears once we swing the pendulum warmer; it is not going to come back. Previous patterns this winter even back into the fall of 2009 favor about 30 day patterns so the timing on this troughing over the east is coming to an end soon. I would not be surprised if the month rounds things on the warmer side of the forecast more so than verifying colder than normal.

Precipitation- Considering climatology of moderate El Ninos on the weakening trend and the considerably active southern stream, I am inclined to lean towards the wetter side of guidance favoring above normal precipitation for the month across the entire northern Middle Atlantic. As for snowfall which is really what most people are concerned with, I will go with normal snowfall for most regions with the higher threat of snow being during the first week of the month before the large pattern change.

"Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from Climate Prediction Center for next 30 days"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

-Winter Outlook 2009-2010... Link.

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2009-2010 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 5in
Monthly Total- 45.75in
Seasonal Total- 63.80in
October Total- 0.0in
November Total- Trace
December Total- 16.0in
January Total- 2.1in
February Total- 45.75in
Winter Weather Advisories- 6
Winter Storm Warnings- 3
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 2
Winter Storm Watches- 3

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 18.8F
Lowest Low Temperature- 9.3F
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Winter Storms Stats)
Dec 5 - 1.5in - First accumulating snow of season
Dec 8-9 - 2.5in - Snow changed to plain rain
Dec 13 - .1in - Freezing rain
Dec 19 - 9.0in - Heavy snow, higher amounts to south
Dec 31 - 3.0in - 2.5hr warm air advection event
Dec 31 #2 - .2in - Freezing rain/sleet later in day
Jan 8 - 1.5in - Light snow associated with clipper
Feb 2 - 3.75in - Weak coastal storm
Feb 5-7 - 19.0in - 10th largest snowstorm on record
Feb 9-10 - 20.5in - Blizzard conditions/snow depth up to 36in
Feb 15-16 - 1.25in - Light snow from clipper

South Mountain, Pennsylvania Snowfall... (Blizzard92)
Heavy snow cover across much of Pennsylvania including the high elevations of the South Mountain range in southcentral Pennsylvania.
South Mountain, Pennsylvania Snowfall...
()
()
()
Blizzard December 9th-10th (Blizzard92)
10mi northeast of Harrisburg, PA with snowdepth of 36in.
Blizzard December 9th-10th

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603. RockawayBoy
2:43 AM GMT on February 26, 2010
Observation: Rockaway, NJ, Northern NJ, 9:45 PM EST.
Snow fall, smaller flakes than most of the previous 12 hours. Total accumulation 7 inches. Wind, occasionally gusting. Temperature 26 degrees F. Roads are not passible unless recently plowed. Plow crews have not been observed in several hours.
602. hurigo
1:05 AM GMT on February 26, 2010
Patch, NO! YOU lost power. Oh my gosh. Glad that you have that device so that you can report in. Do you think Blizz, might be w/out also?
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6729
601. TheRasberryPatch
1:03 AM GMT on February 26, 2010
I lost power approx. 730. I didn't notice n e large wind gust. Writing from my phone. Still light snow had a gust of 33mph @ 8pm
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6255
600. RockawayBoy
9:03 PM GMT on February 25, 2010
Observation for Rockaway, NJ (Northern NJ)
Snow continues to accumulate rapidly--5 inches actual accumulation observed at 4:00 PM, after some melting had occurred during the day. No wind. The temperature has declined to 32 degrees. Roads are passable if crossing flat terrain, but roads on steeper hills are not passable for cars without snow tires or chains. Compression of snow into ice by tires observed frequently. Plow crews are observed, but are not keeping up with the snow on side streets. Icy conditions are occurring at certain stop signs, resulting in skidding.
599. buggyinitscripts
7:37 AM GMT on February 24, 2010


lol
598. jaypup
3:41 AM GMT on February 24, 2010
Fox45 Met just predicted 5-10" for baltimore viewing area...hmmmmmmm?
Member Since: February 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 82
597. SilverShipsofAndilar
12:22 AM GMT on February 24, 2010
Quoting Blizzard92:
My winter storm watch for CTP would be York, Dauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon, Northumberland, Schuykill, Columbia, Montour, Lycoming, Sullivan, and Tioga.


No Cumberland?
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
596. buggyinitscripts
11:55 PM GMT on February 23, 2010
Rain and sleet has finely changed to light snow and sleet. Big wet flakes are falling. I have to look if it's accumulating, all the trees and railings and stuff look as if they have a thin layer of ice on them. With temperatures a few degrees above freezing the pavements and roads are just wet.
595. hurigo
10:24 PM GMT on February 23, 2010
Okay blizz, thanks.
I'm cancelling my trip to central PA!
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6729
594. buggyinitscripts
10:20 PM GMT on February 23, 2010
Rain and sleet are pounding on our windows for the last two hours. I guess the transition to snow has begun, but that doesn't usually last too long. The accumulating sleet is turning the little grass I see a dull gray color.
I hope there's no long power outages, my grandfather needs electricity for his oxygen tanks, with Thursday/Friday's storm. His portable ones last only a few hours.
593. NESTORM
10:03 PM GMT on February 23, 2010
Quoting TheShovler3:
NEstorm where in the berks are you?

I'm in the Hudson Valley, its really heavy right now.


Pittsfield, We missed all the big storms so far this winter we are so overdue !!!
Many roads all over the berks closed because of accidents
Member Since: March 14, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 31
592. originalLT
9:24 PM GMT on February 23, 2010
Yeah RasberryP. I hate the dreded term "Snow showers"--so miss-used. Or they use it as a "catch all" when they don't know what's really happening.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7451
591. Mason803
9:23 PM GMT on February 23, 2010
Quoting Finky:
Mason,

What are they looking at?


finky, read the discussion pp posted. that sums it up.
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
590. PalmyraPunishment
9:22 PM GMT on February 23, 2010
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS
ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY NOW OVER TEXAS IS FORECAST TO PHASE WITH A DEVELOPING NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER TROF THAT IS PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID WEST
STATES ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS HOWEVER AS TO FORECAST
OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...AND THE IMPACTS OF THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM ON
CENTRAL PA. SREF/MREF ENSEMBLE PLUMES INDICATE A SLOW ACCUMULATION OF
MAINLY SNOW OVER A TWO TO THREE DAY PERIOD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO
SATURDAY...WITH AVERAGE QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS IN
THE RANGE FROM .60 OVER THE EASTERN CWA TO .30 IN THE WEST. THIS
RELATIVELY SLOW ACCUMULATION...POTENTIALLY NOT MEETING 6 OR 12 HOUR
SNOWFALL CRITERIA AND STARTING TIME LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROMPTED
US TO HOLD OFF ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

DEPENDING ON STRENGTH...TIMING AND TRACK OF CYCLOGENESIS... THERE
APPEARS TO BE A VERY WINDY...24-36 HOUR PERIOD THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM SHOULD DOMINATE THE
REMAINDER OF WEEKEND THEN SLOWLY RELAXES FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THUS FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND PSBLY CENTRAL MTNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCTD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SE VALLEYS DURING THIS TIME. AS NW FLOW WEAKENS COVERAGE OF
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND TEMPS SHOULD
MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL.-- End Changed Discussion --
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
589. TheRasberryPatch
9:21 PM GMT on February 23, 2010
theShovler - where in the Hudson Valley are you located? i lived there for 2 years and the contrast in precip for the winter was amazing. it would be raining in NJ around the GW bridge and in Chester/Goshen it would be snowing heavy.

so Blizz - we have some snow on the way? NWS forecast is so bad. all i have seen the past few days is snow showers during the week and now there is a possibility of a major storm hitting the east coast? UGH...NWS
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6255
588. Finky
9:20 PM GMT on February 23, 2010
Mason,

What are they looking at?
Member Since: November 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 119
587. jaypup
9:17 PM GMT on February 23, 2010
WOW....NAM did come quiet a ways West...the next day will be quite interesting!
Member Since: February 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 82
586. Mason803
9:14 PM GMT on February 23, 2010
wow.


FRANKLIN-PERRY-DAUPHIN-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHAMBERSBURG...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...
HERSHEY...LEBANON...CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER
412 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2010
.TONIGHT...A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE EVENING...THEN
CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50
PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 40. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST
WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...SNOW. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. WINDY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH...
INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW
NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
WINDY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. BLUSTERY WITH HIGHS IN
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
584. delmarva
9:06 PM GMT on February 23, 2010
Winter Storm Watch
Statement as of 3:30 PM EST on February 23, 2010


... Winter Storm Watch in effect from late Wednesday night through
Friday morning...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Winter
Storm Watch... which is in effect from late Wednesday night
through Friday morning.

Yet another coastal storm is forecast to affect our area later
Wednesday night and into Friday... with Thursday and Thursday night
the prime times for accumulating snow. At this time snow amounts
may average at least 4 inches over the northeast Maryland
shore... Delaware... southern New Jersey... and extreme southeast
Pennsylvania... and 6 inches over eastern Pennsylvania and central
New Jersey... but similar previous storms have deposited heavier
snow amounts. Strong winds are also possible with this potential
storm... so drifting and blowing snow are possible as well.

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow... sleet... or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

hooaaahh!!!
583. Mason803
9:05 PM GMT on February 23, 2010
Quoting Blizzard92:

Hahaha... thanks!


18z NAM is huge improvement for central Pennsylvania. QPF on 12z for KMDT was .42in with QPF on 18z at .59in. Also keep in mind being farther west we are into colder air allowing for 15:1 ratios. I am sure no one would be upset over a 7.5in snow at minimum, hahaha. GFS looked to be around 15in per 12z run with ECMWF around 6-8in per 12z run all again for KMDT.


not bad!! hopefully the moisture will back up to south mountain and get some extra lift from the terrian.
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
582. shipweather
9:05 PM GMT on February 23, 2010
wow! great stuff. certainly wouldn't mind 6-8" I'll check back in later!
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
581. Zachary Labe
9:03 PM GMT on February 23, 2010
Quoting Mason803:
ctp is waiting to take a peek at the 18 gfs before pulling the trigger on anything per my conections. wink wink

Hahaha... thanks!


18z NAM is huge improvement for central Pennsylvania. QPF on 12z for KMDT was .42in with QPF on 18z at .59in. Also keep in mind being farther west we are into colder air allowing for 15:1 ratios. I am sure no one would be upset over a 7.5in snow at minimum, hahaha. GFS looked to be around 15in per 12z run with ECMWF around 6-8in per 12z run all again for KMDT.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15099
580. originalLT
9:02 PM GMT on February 23, 2010
Go east young storm go east! Just alittle bit.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7451
579. shipweather
9:02 PM GMT on February 23, 2010
Practice time....look forward to coming back later and seeing what's in store!
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
578. Mason803
9:01 PM GMT on February 23, 2010
ctp is waiting to take a peek at the 18 gfs before pulling the trigger on anything per my connections. wink wink
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
577. Zachary Labe
9:00 PM GMT on February 23, 2010
Quoting 717WeatherLover:
Well, the 72 hr NAM precip map doesn't look so hot for Central PA but it most certainly is a huge hit for NJ! Gotta run move my daughter into her new room at LVC then off to a CD Band concert guess I'll miss the 00Z runs but can't wait to check back when I return. Have fun all!
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/nam/18znamp72_NE072.gif

That uses a different algorithm. NCEP QPF is much more improved. I will post bufkit QPF totals soon for KMDT. Enjoy the band concernt! I do CD Singers.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15099
576. PalmyraPunishment
8:59 PM GMT on February 23, 2010
I don't want the wind if I can't have the snow. Can I send it back? hahaha
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
574. 717WeatherLover
8:55 PM GMT on February 23, 2010
Well, the 72 hr NAM precip map doesn't look so hot for Central PA but it most certainly is a huge hit for NJ! Gotta run move my daughter into her new room at LVC then off to a CD Band concert guess I'll miss the 00Z runs but can't wait to check back when I return. Have fun all!
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/nam/18znamp72_NE072.gif
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 270
573. shipweather
8:53 PM GMT on February 23, 2010
cumberland shut out!!!!! booo
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
572. TheShovler3
8:50 PM GMT on February 23, 2010
NEstorm where in the berks are you?

I'm in the Hudson Valley, its really heavy right now.
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
571. TheShovler3
8:49 PM GMT on February 23, 2010
This things really winding up here right now. So much for mixing
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
570. NESTORM
8:48 PM GMT on February 23, 2010
2" + hour snow here in the Berkshires over 5 on the ground !!!
Member Since: March 14, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 31
569. Zachary Labe
8:47 PM GMT on February 23, 2010
My winter storm watch for CTP would be York, Dauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon, Northumberland, Schuykill, Columbia, Montour, Lycoming, Sullivan, and Tioga.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15099
568. shipweather
8:47 PM GMT on February 23, 2010
this snow gradient looks to be very east of Susquehanna Valley....what say you Blizz?
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
567. PalmyraPunishment
8:46 PM GMT on February 23, 2010
Wow... I need to get back on clock, huh? lol
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
566. Zachary Labe
8:45 PM GMT on February 23, 2010
I am here, I am here. CTP doing the old, lets not update for awhile.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 282 Comments: 15099
565. Mason803
8:44 PM GMT on February 23, 2010
ctp hasn't updated their grids yet. forecast is still from 9:30 this morning. i suspect they are debating where to put the watches now. prob york, lan, sku, leb, for sure. not certain how far west they will go.
Member Since: November 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1139
564. bwi
8:42 PM GMT on February 23, 2010
LWX:

12Z GFS WOULD CERTAINLY BRING MORE SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN
THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MD. WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
WEST/AGGRESSIVE AS GFS AND ITS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WILL NEED TO
BE CLOSELY EXAMINED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BUT WITH ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT AND THE 12Z ECMWF TRENDING A LITTLE MORE THIS WAY...WILL
INCREASE POPS/QPF ESPECIALLY NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST
MARYLAND FOR SNOW. 50 PCT CONFIDENCE FOR WARNING SNOWFALL CRITERIA
/5 INCHES IN 12 HOURS OR 7 INCHES IN 24 HOURS/ EXISTS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED. THIS
MAY BE A STORM WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL...WHICH ADDS TO
THE CHALLENGING NATURE OF THIS STORM. SO PLEASE STAY TUNED AS THIS
TIGHT GRADIENT COULD CUT THROUGH THE DC METRO AREA.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
563. shipweather
8:39 PM GMT on February 23, 2010
NWS Mt. Holly already has Winter Storm Watches up for Berks and Areas surrounding. For Wed night to Friday night. While the warning itself says "at least 6" this is clearly a very early message to people to be ready. State College mean while has 30% chn. snow.....so are we going to get in on this fun?
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
562. bwi
8:38 PM GMT on February 23, 2010
It's fun to see the forecasts get updated so quickly. Watches up now for Delaware, NJ, eastern shore of MD, parts of eastern PA.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
561. TheShovler3
8:36 PM GMT on February 23, 2010
after about an hour or snow of heavy snow many tree limbs are starting to sag here. Still snowing heavily. radar looks strong too.
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
560. jaypup
8:36 PM GMT on February 23, 2010
BWI---thats music to my ears...or eyes...lol
Member Since: February 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 82
559. 717WeatherLover
8:34 PM GMT on February 23, 2010
977mb at the 54 hr!
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/nam/18znam850mbTSLPp06054.gif
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 270
558. 717WeatherLover
8:33 PM GMT on February 23, 2010
WOW! NAM has 981mb at 48 hr. This storm is really getting cranking!
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 270
557. bwi
8:31 PM GMT on February 23, 2010
MDZ004>007-010-011-014-018-240430-
/O.EXB.KLWX.WS.A.0007.100225T0500Z-100226T1100Z/
FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-HOWARD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-ANNE ARUNDEL-CALVERT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...COLUMBIA...
BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS
319 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 OR MORE
INCHES.

* TIMING...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BECOME
ALL SNOW BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 30S THURSDAY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST
WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
556. jaypup
8:27 PM GMT on February 23, 2010
WEST is good....keep it coming west !!
Member Since: February 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 82
555. 717WeatherLover
8:19 PM GMT on February 23, 2010
The 18Z NAM is currently running and so far looks farther west! West is good for Central PA!
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 270
554. originalLT
8:13 PM GMT on February 23, 2010
Yeah, I hope that center winds up going just 50 or miles further to the East then Me in SW CT. wouold get mostly snow!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7451
553. bwi
8:13 PM GMT on February 23, 2010
DC area precip hole looking better -- SREF loop.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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